Red Sox Offseason discussion

jon abbey

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I feel pretty good about Semien. He has developed some of the best plate discipline in the game, and that tends to age well. Like Schwarber, his chase rate is elite, the 16th best in baseball out of 159 eligible hitters (min. 1,000 PA) over ‘19-21, and his overall contact rate is also excellent at 81.3% (43rd in MLB).

Very few guys who fit the above criteria also hit for power. Here’s the total number of players who posted a chase rate of 26% or less, an overall contact rate of at least 80%, and an ISO of at least .200 (over 2019-21):

Soto, Betts, Bregman, Rendon, Winker, Semien

This is a relatively arbitrary set of criteria, but I’m trying to isolate guys with excellent plate discipline who also hit for power, and these are excellent players. I never want a team I cheer for to employ Alex Bregman, but I’d be happy if Marcus Semien was on it.
He seems to be a case of someone who has continued to work really hard on his game and continues to improve, he was an awful defensive SS for a while and turned himself into a solid one, which almost never happens. I'd be happy to have him on my team but I do think he is going to end up pretty pricy, maybe to the Mariners.
 

Minneapolis Millers

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He seems to be a case of someone who has continued to work really hard on his game and continues to improve, he was an awful defensive SS for a while and turned himself into a solid one, which almost never happens. I'd be happy to have him on my team but I do think he is going to end up pretty pricy, maybe to the Mariners.
Yeah, I think there are 10+ teams that would like him at 4/$100M, but there are a few larger market, lower achieving teams like Seattle that should push him to 5 or 6 years at $26-$28 per. And I have to think that's out of Bloom's comfort range.
 

chrisfont9

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Yeah, I think there are 10+ teams that would like him at 4/$100M, but there are a few larger market, lower achieving teams like Seattle that should push him to 5 or 6 years at $26-$28 per. And I have to think that's out of Bloom's comfort range.
Wow, the Mariners are only at $77m for 2022 now, and with very little on the horizon as well. They've been saying nice-sounding things about wanting to spend money, and presumably Semien is OK with being on the West Coast, although he is also fully aware that Seattle weather isn't Oakland. Anyway, yes, they could be players but as usual they will have to overpay for anyone with a lively market. Apparently they aren't budging Crawford off SS though, so that's no Correa and for Semien he would have to play second or third.
 

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Between Bogarts and Mayer, I have a hard time seeing the Sox put a Betts size deal into SS, unless they are landing someone who’s A) market has collapsed, and B) is a very good defensive SS who’s not adverse to playing 2B. Offensive contributions might be minimal…

… maybe Javier Baez, but more likely Iglesias V2.0…
 

nvalvo

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Between Bogarts and Mayer, I have a hard time seeing the Sox put a Betts size deal into SS, unless they are landing someone who’s A) market has collapsed, and B) is a very good defensive SS who’s not adverse to playing 2B. Offensive contributions might be minimal…

… maybe Javier Baez, but more likely Iglesias V2.0…
But we only have one more year with Bogaerts, and Mayer is 18.

Mayer had a good 100 PA run down in the complex league, and I think we're all very high on him. But optimistically Mayer becomes a factor in 26-man roster planning sometime around 2024, and the optimistic case for when we would expect him to take the bulk of the SS playing time would be 2025 — and again, that's if things go smoothly. If he moves really quickly (like, say, Mookie Betts did) that has him getting called up in late 2024, but that required the perfect storm of an imploding big league team and Betts hitting .350/.450/.550 in AA. That's not something you plan for.

How likely is it that any of these players — Bogaerts (29), Correa (27), Seager (28), Baez (29), Semien (31), Story (29)... — is still playing SS at a high level by 2025? Suppose we sign Corey Seager to the 8/$240m deal Fangraphs' Ben Clemens thinks he'll get. By 2025, if/when Mayer is ready, it's probably time for Seager to play somewhere else anyway.

In any case, I don't think anyone thinks any of these guys are approaching Betts' 12/$365m deal. Maybe the AAV will be similar, but no one is signing Corey Seager or Trevor Story through their age 40 seasons.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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It seems to me that they need to engage with Bogaerts this off-season and figure out what it is going to take to get him to sign an extension before opting out. His market should be pretty well established based on what the other guys get. Hell, one reason to discuss a deal with a Correa or Seagar is to get a # to go back to to Xander with and give him an ultimatum, we need to extend you now or sign one of the other guys. It’s a business, but if he wants to stay here like he says, the time to get a deal done is this off-season. Waiting until next year gives X a lot more leverage and leaves the Sox with fewer good options at the position.
 

EricFeczko

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He seems to be a case of someone who has continued to work really hard on his game and continues to improve, he was an awful defensive SS for a while and turned himself into a solid one, which almost never happens. I'd be happy to have him on my team but I do think he is going to end up pretty pricy, maybe to the Mariners.
Yup -- he's been the best SS in baseball over the past few years, with Xander close behind him (Correra and Seager are barely top-third, I wouldn't touch either of them).


Personally, I think Semien is the best SS on the market. He probably gets the highest AAV for an SS.
 

OCD SS

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But we only have one more year with Bogaerts, and Mayer is 18.

Mayer had a good 100 PA run down in the complex league, and I think we're all very high on him. But optimistically Mayer becomes a factor in 26-man roster planning sometime around 2024, and the optimistic case for when we would expect him to take the bulk of the SS playing time would be 2025 — and again, that's if things go smoothly. If he moves really quickly (like, say, Mookie Betts did) that has him getting called up in late 2024, but that required the perfect storm of an imploding big league team and Betts hitting .350/.450/.550 in AA. That's not something you plan for.

How likely is it that any of these players — Bogaerts (29), Correa (27), Seager (28), Baez (29), Semien (31), Story (29)... — is still playing SS at a high level by 2025? Suppose we sign Corey Seager to the 8/$240m deal Fangraphs' Ben Clemens thinks he'll get. By 2025, if/when Mayer is ready, it's probably time for Seager to play somewhere else anyway.

In any case, I don't think anyone thinks any of these guys are approaching Betts' 12/$365m deal. Maybe the AAV will be similar, but no one is signing Corey Seager or Trevor Story through their age 40 seasons.
I know I should've been more clear, but by a "Bett's type deal" I just meant a franchise level expenditure (call it $250M+). Yes, Mayer is still 18, and you can't plan for him to pan out; I'm not worried about blocking him, but at the same time you don't sign someone like Correa if you don't expect him to stay there for awhile (and let's also not forget we may also want to lock up Devers at 3B for awhile). I think you're exactly right that none of these guys will play SS at a high level into their 30's (who really does anymore?), but the contract they sign will determine how hard they are to move off the position (we're already seeing that a bit with X). This is probably the team's best chance to execute a medium to long term plan for the position.

I don't think Correa is an option. Seager is not a good enough defender (KG slapped a 45 on him, and he's not going to get better). I don't like Semien's track record, he strikes me as a guy who had a couple good years that won't hold his value, so I'm happy if the Sox avoid his market. That leaves Baez and Story, and will one have their market fall apart? I don't get the weird Coors affect on defense, but Story is easily going to be a better SS than X, but I think he'll sign as a SS. That leaves Baez as still likely a better SS than X, but I can see him not having a great market because of his offensive approach, and him willing to sign to play 2B next to X. If the Sox do this they should be on the lookout to swap them across the keystone long term, probably after they extend/ re-sign X...
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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Is it realistic to sign one of the big FA SS, and extend Bogaerts and Devers? That’s like $80-$90M per in three players….add in Sale and you’ve got four players making $120m before long. I think you only sign one of the SS if you plan on X walking. Which is why you try to get a deal done with X, I he’s arguably preferable to any of the players available. Rather continue on with the guy who has spent his whole career here and convince him to move a few years down the road if and when Mayer is ready than give a ton of money to a similar player who might not be as good a fit.
 
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Is it realistic to sign one of the big FA SS, and extend Bogaerts and Devers? That’s like $80-$90M per in three players….add in Sale and you’ve got four players making $120m before long. I think you only sign one of the SS if you plan on X walking. Which is why you try to get a deal done with X, I he’s arguably preferable to any of the players available. Rather continue on with the guy who has spent his whole career here and convince him to move a few years down the road if and when Mayer is ready than give a ton of money to a similar player who might not be as good a fit.
Bingo! This is essentially what I think. Specifically, the Sox need to extend both Devers and Bogaerts this winter. Tear up their contracts and give Devers $22 mill/year for 10 years and Bogaerts $25 mill/yr for seven years. These may well be below market deals, but it assures their futures with an organization they both want to stay with and keeps them together which I am guessing is also important to them. These team friendly but long term deals with our home grown stars are preferable, I think, to chasing any of the big FA SS.
 

cantor44

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Bingo! This is essentially what I think. Specifically, the Sox need to extend both Devers and Bogaerts this winter. Tear up their contracts and give Devers $22 mill/year for 10 years and Bogaerts $25 mill/yr for seven years. These may well be below market deals, but it assures their futures with an organization they both want to stay with and keeps them together which I am guessing is also important to them. These team friendly but long term deals with our home grown stars are preferable, I think, to chasing any of the big FA SS.
Though I think there's an argument to seeing if there are all-star caliber players out there who will sign for 3-5 years, and so avoid having a player 35 and up, making 20+ million/yr. Semien presents that possibility, because he's already 31 ...could you get him for 4 years? That gives you an instant upgrade at second in 2022, allows you insurance if X opts out in 2023, and doesn't block Mayer. Then again, they could try to up Xander's AAV but not the years, though not sure he'd go for that. That would be ideal from a sentimental standpoint (I love Xander) ...
 

BringBackMo

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This is interesting, Passan reporting that Seager and Semien are now likely to sign before the lockout. Novel Boras tactic if nothing else.
Thanks for highlighting that tweet. Very interesting. I would add that I don’t think Passan says anywhere that it’s likely that either signs by Dec. 1, only that it’s possible. I mention this quibble only because this feels a bit like a Boras negotiation tactic.
 

NDame616

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Bingo! This is essentially what I think. Specifically, the Sox need to extend both Devers and Bogaerts this winter. Tear up their contracts and give Devers $22 mill/year for 10 years and Bogaerts $25 mill/yr for seven years. These may well be below market deals, but it assures their futures with an organization they both want to stay with and keeps them together which I am guessing is also important to them. These team friendly but long term deals with our home grown stars are preferable, I think, to chasing any of the big FA SS.
If you offer Devers 10/220 you get laughed out of the room and may not even get a chance to renegotiate (ala Lester). And I think X will get closer to $35M a year. I honestly think the Sox are more likely to trade X this off season than extend him
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Bingo! This is essentially what I think. Specifically, the Sox need to extend both Devers and Bogaerts this winter. Tear up their contracts and give Devers $22 mill/year for 10 years and Bogaerts $25 mill/yr for seven years. These may well be below market deals, but it assures their futures with an organization they both want to stay with and keeps them together which I am guessing is also important to them. These team friendly but long term deals with our home grown stars are preferable, I think, to chasing any of the big FA SS.
As others have said, those contracts won't nearly get the job done. The negotiations to extend Devers are going to have to start at $25M AAV (and Bogaerts higher than that), and even that might be bordering on insulting as well.

Look at it this way: he's likely going to get $10-11M in arbitration next year, then probably $17-18M in 2023. Take those then tack on Machado's $30M AAV as a baseline for the subsequent years and that's the ballpark where Bloom and company need to be to have a shot. So if it's a 10 year extension, it 11+18+(30x8), or 10/269.
 

E5 Yaz

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Take those then tack on Machado's $30M AAV as a baseline for the subsequent years and that's the ballpark where Bloom and company need to be to have a shot. So if it's a 10 year extension, it 11+18+(30x8), or 10/269.
I have to think that this year's shortstop class might even make that obsolete when it comes to the X/Devers extension offers. Might have to look at Correa. The union will look at them, Devers in particular, and want to make sure they take their turn in pushing AAV higher.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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I have to think that this year's shortstop class might even make that obsolete when it comes to the X/Devers extension offers. Might have to look at Correa. The union will look at them, Devers in particular, and want to make sure they take their turn in pushing AAV higher.
No doubt that will be the case, but since the most recent free agent contracts for 3B are Machado and Rendon (plus the Arenado extension), Machado as the lowest AAV of the bunch seems like the best baseline if we're looking at a "team-friendly" extension rather than a full-on market value deal.
 

Max Power

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Devers just turned 25. If the new CBA goes in the direction that's been proposed, the Red Sox might control his rights until he turns 29. I assume those extra years would be paid at regular free agent rates, so it's not like they're getting a discount, but it would be prudent to wait a few months and see how that shakes out before extending him.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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I can’t imagine there’s anyway in hell that the union will agree to delaying free agency for players until they turn 29- and if they do, they’d likely make it so that it wouldn’t impact players who are close to free agency now, right? Otherwise, Correa and E-Rod suddenly aren’t free agents.
 

LogansDad

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Agreed, they would strike rather than let that go into effect. To me, that was an "in bad faith" offer by the owners, and if it's a sign of things to come, I doubt we see a full 2022 season.
 

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No, the new CBA will not retroactively take away rights (FA for Correa) that the players have already earned. But extending team control prospectively? Could happen, if the MLBPA caves or gets something else worth a ton.
 

Max Power

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Two years from now isn't all that close to being a free agent. Agreed that they wouldn't change anything for the current crop of free agents.

I can see basing free agency on age rather than years of control as something that helps both sides. Clearly any player who makes the majors after age 24 would be better off. But even younger players may end up better off since teams wouldn't play service time games at the start of their careers to maximize years of control. You'd just have to make it so that arbitration rewards after the 4th season are at free agent rates. The Red Sox can keep Devers, but they'll have to pay him $30-35 million a year to do it.

The major downside would be a lack of long term security for a player who debuts young. A superstar would be playing on a series of one year deals rather than getting a long term one in their mid-20s.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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Free agency at the age of 29 benefits the owners far more than the players. It’s putting a players peak years in team control…..whereas previously, the best players became FA at like 26. How many good players now don’t become a free agent age 29 or later? Not many.

I think it’s a non-starter and nothing that will be taken seriously by the players side.
 

bg1025

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I think the best compromise would be 29 or the standard 6 years. Whichever comes sooner. Which side balls first at that suggestion?
 

Max Power

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I think the best compromise would be 29 or the standard 6 years. Whichever comes sooner. Which side balls first at that suggestion?
The owners since they're giving up years of control on most players for nothing. An actual compromise would be to adjust the age down.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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I could see the players wanting to abolish service time in favor of a flat six years of control after the player debuts. No more holding a guy in the minors long enough that you get an extra year of control. The clock starts on his debut and never stops, even if he's optioned or riding the shuttle in those first couple seasons. If a guy debuts in 2022, he's a free agent after the 2027 season even if he spends most of the next couple seasons in the minors.
 

crow216

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I could see the players wanting to abolish service time in favor of a flat six years of control after the player debuts. No more holding a guy in the minors long enough that you get an extra year of control. The clock starts on his debut and never stops, even if he's optioned or riding the shuttle in those first couple seasons. If a guy debuts in 2022, he's a free agent after the 2027 season even if he spends most of the next couple seasons in the minors.
That would need to be supplemented by a system that also discourages owners from keeping playing in AAA too long. Teams have to be incentivized or at least dissuaded from stashing their prospects. However, I think its a bad idea. If you remove service time, no such thing as getting a taste of the show for injuries or at the end of the year. Imagine the Sox ran out of starter and were forced to call up thier AA 18 year old top but not ready prospect. Now the clock starts?
 

jon abbey

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Let's try to keep this thread to Boston personnel discussion, even if we are less than three weeks away from what seems like a certain lockout. Thanks.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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I’m not shocked. Despite his up and down season, there just isn’t a great supply of quality starters this offseason.
Think the Sox will try to match a competitor’s offer or?
 

BringBackMo

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ERod declining the QO was a certainty. Might be worth a separate poll to see what people think his new contract will look like. Earlier in this thread a few of us were pointing out that there’s going to be a lot of demand for him this off-season given that his peripheral numbers were actually quite good this year.

E-Rod’s career numbers to date are very similar to Zach Wheelers two years ago, and he got 5/118. He’s only 28. He doesn’t need a pillow contract, he should be taking the most guaranteed money he can get.
Wheeler has a 111 era+ in 1034 innings, Erod has a 110 era+ in 857 innings. The ERA difference is almost entirely league and park based.
If the Sox want ERod, it’s very likely to cost them. My guess is that the only reason the Sox are being coy about the QO is that they are legitimately trying to decide whether they want to spend the money long term that will be required to keep him.
I think ERod is at worst a number three starter, and with health (a sizable if with him) is a number two. I think he’s going to command a 5-year deal. Do the Sox want to pay him? Basing this on nothing but my own personal reading of the tea leaves, but I think he winds up signing here.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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People really thought he was going to accept the QO?
Over the relatively short history of the qualifying offer, the surprises have always been when a player accepts the QO. Prior to this year, only 10 out of 96 players tendered a QO accepted them. And of those that rejected, 23 eventually re-signed with their original team anyway.

So if that holds, it seems we're looking at a 1 in 4 chance that ERod comes back.
 

BringBackMo

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Ruh-roh.

View: https://twitter.com/CodyStavenhagen/status/1460239411518574596


@codystavenhagen: Sources: The Tigers are close to finalizing a multiyear deal with free agent LHP Eduardo Rodriguez. Rodriguez had a 4.16 ERA and 3.32 FIP last season for the Red Sox. Finished sixth in Cy Young voting in 2019.
Hard to know how the impending lockout affects ERod’s thinking here, but if he’s close to signing already you have to think this is a big offer from the Tigers….and that the Sox quickly passed on matching/beating it.

EDIT: Wow. Surprised the Sox wouldn’t bid more than this deal!
 

chawson

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At least now we won’t have to see the Correa / E-Rod rift play out in the Boston media. (jk)

This is a drag. Eddie seemed the FA likeliest to sign with us, and 5/77 is very doable. I’m already exhausted by Boston media fantasizing about signing Verlander, who may now be our next best shot at signing an impact free agent starter. I wouldn’t bet a penny on it but you have to try.

Re-signing Schwarber, extending Eovaldi and trading Dalbec and/or Duran for pitching all seem a little likelier now. I wonder what Michael Pineda would say to the Garrett Richards contract?
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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If we eliminate pitchers who got QO’s, you’ve still got Anthony DeSclafani, Alex Wood, Carlos Rodon, Pineda, Matz, Jon Gray, and Yusei Kikuchu who look like potential fits. Rodon seems likely to get as much as E-Rod did, which would seemingly make him less of a target.
 

LogansDad

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Not sure of a better place for it, but Chad Jennings had a really fun article in The Athletic this morning on Houck and Whitlock.


For months now, Houck and Whitlock have been keeping score in a competition that doesn’t exist. It started with pregame sprints — races might be won fairly or unfairly, and regardless of whether the other participant knew it was a race — and escalated to other workouts and random interactions. One of them might be on his phone in the clubhouse and hear from across the room, “One-nothing!” in celebration of some unknown victory.
Although Houck debuted last season, Whitlock technically passed him in major-league service time this summer. (One-nothing!) During a late-season trip to New York, the pair went to a Starbucks where Whitlock ordered first, then he told the barista he’d also pay for “whatever this rookie wants.”

“(Houck) was just like, oh, you suck,” Whitlock said. “So, I let him know.”
Nothing hard hitting, but still a really fun read.
 

cantor44

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ERod declining the QO was a certainty. Might be worth a separate poll to see what people think his new contract will look like. Earlier in this thread a few of us were pointing out that there’s going to be a lot of demand for him this off-season given that his peripheral numbers were actually quite good this year.




I think ERod is at worst a number three starter, and with health (a sizable if with him) is a number two. I think he’s going to command a 5-year deal. Do the Sox want to pay him? Basing this on nothing but my own personal reading of the tea leaves, but I think he winds up signing here.
He got the years, but he sure didn't get the Zack Wheeler money ...like 41 million less ..
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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The opt-out changed the calculus, a bit. Given the CBA, the market is uncertain and to sign quickly he potentially left money on the table, but he also locked in a lot of money and got himself the ability to go back on the market at a 30 year old which seems almost a lock to do, unless he is hurt.

I think it’s a good deal for E-Rod and the Tigers. I would have liked the Sox to have signed it, but I don’t feel too strongly about them not doing it. There’s enough decent pitchers out there and given the Sox needs and assets, I am not sure they need to be aggressive early on- they may benefit from letting the market come to them.
 

amRadio

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Rodon's K:BB jumped up to 5.14 this year compared to his 2.66 career mark. H/9 was similarly low compared to his career numbers. I think he'll end up getting a little less than E-rod because of his IP track record - 165 is the high water mark back in 2016 and he's never made 30 starts in his career. It might be interesting to bet on him sustaining his improved peripherals from this past year.
 

burstnbloom

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The opt-out changed the calculus, a bit. Given the CBA, the market is uncertain and to sign quickly he potentially left money on the table, but he also locked in a lot of money and got himself the ability to go back on the market at a 30 year old which seems almost a lock to do, unless he is hurt.

I think it’s a good deal for E-Rod and the Tigers. I would have liked the Sox to have signed it, but I don’t feel too strongly about them not doing it. There’s enough decent pitchers out there and given the Sox needs and assets, I am not sure they need to be aggressive early on- they may benefit from letting the market come to them.
Ya I think this was it for Eddie. He gets paid next year and the following year, take a look at the landscape post CBA and hopefully pitch well, then hit the market in a more certain environment at 30 with (in his mind) 2 more good seasons of production. If it doesn't work out or he gets hurt, he gets an extra $40 mil for his trouble. I don't blame him at all.
 

BringBackMo

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I expected Rodriguez to sign for five years and $100 million or so. This strikes me as a pretty good deal for the Tigers. I’m surprised the Sox didn’t see this as a reasonable number to bring him back. The draft pick is likely appealing, but perhaps just as a hedge against losing one of our own if we sign a good free agent, which seems even more likely now.
He got the years, but he sure didn't get the Zack Wheeler money ...like 41 million less ..
Yes, that’s very true. I think the expiring CBA and looming lockout probably contributed to his taking this deal, but the fact is that he got less that Wheeler.
 

Daniel_Son

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If we eliminate pitchers who got QO’s, you’ve still got Anthony DeSclafani, Alex Wood, Carlos Rodon, Pineda, Matz, Jon Gray, and Yusei Kikuchu who look like potential fits. Rodon seems likely to get as much as E-Rod did, which would seemingly make him less of a target.
Out of that group, I think Rodon is the best match. Wonder if 5/85 would get it done.
 

chawson

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If we eliminate pitchers who got QO’s, you’ve still got Anthony DeSclafani, Alex Wood, Carlos Rodon, Pineda, Matz, Jon Gray, and Yusei Kikuchu who look like potential fits. Rodon seems likely to get as much as E-Rod did, which would seemingly make him less of a target.
A lot of those guys have real flags for me. DeSclafani and Wood are products of San Francisco’s extreme pitchers’ park. Wood and Kikuchi seem like spider tack guys, and Rodón, Pineda and Gray have iffy health issues. I’m coming around to Matz and like his changeup, but he also had a spider tack drop. I’m not convinced Fenway’s a great place for him, and I don’t see a free agent starter choosing Boston when the pay is comparable elsewhere. Guys like Kluber, Verlander and Scherzer are special cases. Who knows what factors those guys weigh.

Here are some starters’ xwOBAs post spider tack crackdown (6/21-). What about this guy?

Rodón: .261
R. Ray: .277
Player X: .285
E. Rodriguez: .286
A. Wood: .292
T. Anderson: .304
Gausman: .309
J. Gray: .307
DeSclafani: .313
Matz: .317
Smyly: .334
Pineda: .339
Kikuchi: .379

Player X is Kyle Freeland, a rather forgotten Rockies starter. Similar to Renfroe, he’s a free agent in 2024 and is set to make about $7.5 million in arb next year, money the Rockies may not want to pay. Since the Rockies love starters with low-rise fastballs, they’d probably be especially interested in Houck. How about a deal built like Houck and Duran to Colorado for Márquez, Freeland and Hilliard?
 

YTF

Member
SoSH Member
A lot of those guys have real flags for me. DeSclafani and Wood are products of San Francisco’s extreme pitchers’ park. Wood and Kikuchi seem like spider tack guys, and Rodón, Pineda and Gray have iffy health issues. I’m coming around to Matz and like his changeup, but he also had a spider tack drop. I’m not convinced Fenway’s a great place for him, and I don’t see a free agent starter choosing Boston when the pay is comparable elsewhere. Guys like Kluber, Verlander and Scherzer are special cases. Who knows what factors those guys weigh.

Here are some starters’ xwOBAs post spider tack crackdown (6/21-). What about this guy?

Rodón: .261
R. Ray: .277
Player X: .285
E. Rodriguez: .286
A. Wood: .292
T. Anderson: .304
Gausman: .309
J. Gray: .307
DeSclafani: .313
Matz: .317
Smyly: .334
Pineda: .339
Kikuchi: .379

Player X is Kyle Freeland, a rather forgotten Rockies starter. Similar to Renfroe, he’s a free agent in 2024 and is set to make about $7.5 million in arb next year, money the Rockies may not want to pay. Since the Rockies love starters with low-rise fastballs, they’d probably be especially interested in Houck. How about a deal built like Houck and Duran to Colorado for Márquez, Freeland and Hilliard?
Colorado elected to do absolutely nothing at the trade deadline. I'm not sure what would motivate them to move Marquez in this sort of deal. Also, Freeland's career WHIP of 1.40 is a bit concerning.