Red Sox in season discussion
- Thread starter Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat
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How would we feel about offering Verdugo an extension right now? Still years away from FA, tack three or four years on to his contract to bring him under team control until his 32/33 season. Probably wouldn't be too expensive and locks up RF for a few more years?
I would rather lock up Devers and Verdugo and call it a day. That would be a successful off-season IMM.
I really just want Bogaerts/Devers to sign extensions so I can stop being a cynical asshole about this franchise's interest in re-signing star players to market-rate contracts. Until we see that, I'm really skeptical about their futures in Boston based on the direction of the franchise since Bloom took over. And I don't even blame Bloom because he's obviously doing a job that Henry & Co. approve of.
I said this in the other thread but I'd be weary of signing Story given his historical lack of success hitting outside of Coors.
I said this in the other thread but I'd be weary of signing Story given his historical lack of success hitting outside of Coors.
I’ve said this before, but I think we overestimate the amount of “restraint” exerted by our FO and underestimate how often we’re rebuffed despite offering the most money.
The Sox have a geographic and probably cultural disadvantage that I think has only grown more pronounced over time. Most baseball players aren’t from New England, so we miss out on anyone “going home” like Freeman, even though we likely had the highest offer for him. We were reportedly a finalist for Stroman, who also IIRC turned down more money elsewhere to sign with Chicago (we signed Rich Hill hours later). Who knows how much we offered Suzuki, Schwarber, Baez, Matz, Canha or whoever else.
There’s a big black hole in our knowledge around this. It’s not reported, and the Sox can never acknowledge it publicly because it would substantiate the theory. Is our offseason all because of Bloom’s fiscal restraint? Or are there geographic (weather, proximity to hometown) and probably cultural (nightlife, cultural attractions, marketing opportunities, demographics, antagonistic media) reasons that players don’t want to sign here? Surely it’s not 100 percent the former and 0 percent the latter. I know we can’t always know who turns down our offers, but what use is it to pretend that our absence of impact signings is all due to intentional fiscal restraint?
The Sox have a geographic and probably cultural disadvantage that I think has only grown more pronounced over time. Most baseball players aren’t from New England, so we miss out on anyone “going home” like Freeman, even though we likely had the highest offer for him. We were reportedly a finalist for Stroman, who also IIRC turned down more money elsewhere to sign with Chicago (we signed Rich Hill hours later). Who knows how much we offered Suzuki, Schwarber, Baez, Matz, Canha or whoever else.
There’s a big black hole in our knowledge around this. It’s not reported, and the Sox can never acknowledge it publicly because it would substantiate the theory. Is our offseason all because of Bloom’s fiscal restraint? Or are there geographic (weather, proximity to hometown) and probably cultural (nightlife, cultural attractions, marketing opportunities, demographics, antagonistic media) reasons that players don’t want to sign here? Surely it’s not 100 percent the former and 0 percent the latter. I know we can’t always know who turns down our offers, but what use is it to pretend that our absence of impact signings is all due to intentional fiscal restraint?
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Verdugo is under club control for three more years and isn't good enough to worry beyond that.
As far as which signings I would the Sox to have made, Stroman at only 3 years is at the top of the list. I liked Suzuki too, though that's more of an unknown and depends on how well the Sox think he would have been in RF at Fenway.
This is interesting. I wonder if this means Casas may get called up earlier than we thought.
View: https://twitter.com/chriscotillo/status/1504444642850480139?s=21
View: https://twitter.com/chriscotillo/status/1504444642850480139?s=21
I like thinking outside the box, but if he had a shot at being a passable 2B, wouldn't he have been tried there in the minors? I know the Dodgers have done this with Muncy, can't find much data on how it's gone but at least he was a very well regarded defender at 1B. It's fine if it's just as an emergency deal at the end of a game, but opening day is in 3 weeks, he's going to become adept at turning the DP in that time?
It might, but what I think it really means is that the Red Sox don't see Dalbec as an everyday player going forward.
More likely, they're seeing if they can turn him into a multi-position player who can start at any of 3-4 positions on a particular day.
With six teams in the post-season, I think it's highly unlikely that the Sox will be sellers at the deadline.
If the shift is really going away, this is the time to try this. The Brewers kind of did this a few times with guys like Shaw and Moustakas as well.
Really not super interested in seeing Dalbec at 2B, more so about him being able to spot start in LF potentially, but I do like finding other ways to get Bobby at-bats. Also, arroyo is pretty breakable. Finding alternatives to fill the position in the event of a IL stint, instead of having to rely solely on someone like Arauz or moving Kike to the infield is worthwhile.
Really not super interested in seeing Dalbec at 2B, more so about him being able to spot start in LF potentially, but I do like finding other ways to get Bobby at-bats. Also, arroyo is pretty breakable. Finding alternatives to fill the position in the event of a IL stint, instead of having to rely solely on someone like Arauz or moving Kike to the infield is worthwhile.
I think you are objectively not wrong about that. It makes no sense that the Sox would treat 2022 as yet another retooling year — not when we were just given a gift of a new CBT, not when it’s the last year we have Bogaerts, Kiké, JDM, Eovaldi and Vazquez under contract, and not after we just made it to the ALCS.
As others have noted, there’s a very limited amount of ammo for which to keep the powder dry. The 2023 free agent class is quite weak, most of its best players already play for us. I’m all for extending Kiké, Bogaerts or Eovaldi (or Devers) — but why hasn’t that happened? What possible targets are we hedging our bets on?
With the new CBT, there’s no good baseball reason why the Sox shouldn’t spend a bunch of money and exceed the threshold this year. Even if you whiff on all free agent targets, there are still options. The Reds are doing a complete teardown. Why would you not take on their terrible Moustakas contract with Nick Senzel or a couple prospects attached? Moustakas could even be DFA’d, he’d be off the books by the time it mattered.
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Wouldn’t the shift going away mean we’d see more athletic second basemen, not fewer?
Advanced defensive positioning typically puts infielders on the outfield grass, giving them more reaction time.
Dalbec was a -6 OAA 1B last year. Same as Vlad Guerrero Jr., who nobody envisions making a successful transition to 2B. I suppose it’s possible Dalbec can be our RHH platoon bat, playing left in the OF shuffle with Verdugo shifting to right. But that’s hardly ideal and I’d think someone else would value him more highly as a first or third baseman.
I think it's exactly this. If he were someone they don't see as an everyday player, they'd just leave him at 1B until Casas is ready and then ship him out (Worcester or a trade). That they're talking about experimenting with other positions for him suggests they like him and want to find a way to keep him in the lineup when Casas forces his way up.
I understand that not everyone likes the prospects we got back, but in this very off-season, Bloom has already taken on a bad contract in exchange for prospects--JBJ. That's obviously not a splashy free-agent signing, but it's using the team's financial resources in a way that is intended to strengthen the overall organization. And how do we know that Bloom isn't right now working on the exact kinds of deals you bring up? Or others? We don't. There is still plenty of time left in this truncated off-season and he clearly hasn't shown his full hand yet. Once the off-season is over, I think it will be perfectly fair to offer opinions about where the team did or didn't go wrong. But how can we possibly draw those kinds of conclusions right now?
Except that Stapleton came up as a second baseman who then slid over to first to get his bat into the lineup (how funny it is to type that given his rapid and consistent decline as a batter). Dalbec is a first/third guy who would be sliding over to second to get his bat into the lineup. Seems like a much harder transition and his bat is a big question mark anyway.
Our braintrust's positional flexibility fetish is really out of hand. If I were the Red Sox, I'd want Dalbec to concentrate in spring training on improving his hitting and cutting down on his strikeouts, not learning a few new positions. And it's not like his glove work at first is so good that he shouldn't be taking reps there either.
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Dalbec taking reps at 2b is somewhat curious only because he’s currently the only 1b on the roster. So this seemingly suggests they may acquire a 1b or Casas has a shot to make the team.
Hopefully this works out better than when Arroyo tried to play first!
Hopefully this works out better than when Arroyo tried to play first!
I think your first point is absolutely correct. We will see a greater premium put on athleticism at 2B, but for Bloom, he might just be looking to address the position this year. Bobby at second may just be a convenient way to handle 2B in part this year without really committing resources, while kicking the medium term future of the position down the road. I think there's still some reason to be optimistic about his bat in this lineup and finding multiple ways to get himself penciled into it is a positive to me.
If Bobby acquits himself well to either second or LF, he at minimum makes himself more valuable to the team this year and potentially as a trade chip at the deadline. If he bombs, well, you're probably no worse for wear because he wasn't a super realistic option as it were for either.
It's not ideal, but it's not the dumbest idea either I guess.
Or, they're simply taking advantage of spring training to experiment while the games don't count for anything. This may well have been the plan for him since last fall when he was taking ground balls and learning the pivot in anticipation of potential post-season use at 2B. Better to do this now regardless of the plans for 1B this season than try to make it work in June or July.
I wouldn’t hate a deal for Nick Castellanos, but he’s another guy with dramatic park splits.
2020-21
Home: .319/.376/641, 153 wRC+
Away: .251/.312/.462, 104 wRC+
The Great American Ballpark in Cincinnati helps home runs off the bats of right-handed hitters about 30 percent more than the MLB average. Fenway, though being a good offensive park overall, suppresses them slightly. (One of the arguments for Soler is that KC massively suppresses HRs from right-handed batters, at a rate of 74:100).
Those are more worrisome splits than Trevor Story’s, I’d say. At least with Story, the effect can be explained by the Coors hangover effect that worsens their performance on the road. Rockies hitters’ road numbers tend to improve after they’re traded elsewhere. That’s known in my mind at least as the Iannetta Effect, which has been linked here before, but there’s a new article about Story that touches on it in the Athletic yesterday.
2020-21
Home: .319/.376/641, 153 wRC+
Away: .251/.312/.462, 104 wRC+
The Great American Ballpark in Cincinnati helps home runs off the bats of right-handed hitters about 30 percent more than the MLB average. Fenway, though being a good offensive park overall, suppresses them slightly. (One of the arguments for Soler is that KC massively suppresses HRs from right-handed batters, at a rate of 74:100).
Those are more worrisome splits than Trevor Story’s, I’d say. At least with Story, the effect can be explained by the Coors hangover effect that worsens their performance on the road. Rockies hitters’ road numbers tend to improve after they’re traded elsewhere. That’s known in my mind at least as the Iannetta Effect, which has been linked here before, but there’s a new article about Story that touches on it in the Athletic yesterday.
They'd be foolish to do so IMO, but they might bite on a major league ready player, e.g. Dalbec?
He's also best suited for DH. Unless he has no other offers and settles for way under asking price, I'd rather do nothing.
Story was banged up last year - could be an opportunity to get a bit of a discount if the medicals check out. His fielding took a massive hit (-7 OAA in 2021; 18 OAA in 19-20).
No idea if he would be willing to play 2B. I wonder if there is a chance they move Bogaerts?
No idea if he would be willing to play 2B. I wonder if there is a chance they move Bogaerts?
As a life long New Englander, I have to be realistic about the over-all environment we offer FAs. The weather is terrible unless you’re into winter sports, which few FAs are. The tax environment doesn’t compare well with FL and a few other warm weather states, and that has a discounting effect on salary structures. We don’t have a sizable Japanese community to compare with Seattle and SF, although that doesn’t seem to have discouraged Suzuki. I don’t know if our night life competes,. Certainly, it doesn’t compete with NYC or LA. We have a history of racist stupidity, which unfairly or not trails the RS and pops up occasionally. Chawson has tagged others that don’t require repeating. There are some FAs who simply don’t want to live here unless the economics outweigh anything else on offer. We all talk about the Fenway experience and the fervent crowds and for a certain kind of athlete that means a lot, but I suspect it means more to the older ball player who has had 1 or 2 lucrative contracts already. For the younger ball player,I’m not sure it counts as much.
All intangibles, as chawson said and non- quantifiable.
I think Dalbec is what he is, offensively. They're not going to be re-inventing his swing or approach. And while I was a little disappointed by his defense last year, he is very athletic for a 1B and it's not completely nuts to think he could be adequate at positions where we have a lot less depth. And if you're okay with Arroyo being the backup SS, Dalbec being able to play 2B means you don't need to carry a backup infielder full-time. Fetish or not, that's huge.
Because that's what we do here. Doom and Gloom rules. The negativity in this town . . .
I don't see him as being good enough for RF at Fenway. You need someone really good on defense there, and it looked like his defense regressed last year. And his hitting isn't good enough to overcome it.
I like Verdugo. I think the incident in the minors was him being a dumb kid and not any malice, and he seems very happy to be playing baseball and to be with the Sox. But unless he takes a step forward this year -- which he's still young enough to do -- I see as as a guy like Renfroe who you made trade or non-tender when he starts getting expensive. He's decent at everything, but not especially good at anything.
It's rather amusing to have read a string of posts yesterday about all the massive free-agent signings the Sox have made in recent history that turned out to be busts, and then, in the same thread and 18 hours or so later, to be reading posts lamenting the Red Sox inability to attract free agents.
In addition to the Coors effect, it's also important to note that by being in the NL West, Story's played a ton of his road games in pitcher-friendly ballparks like San Diego, LA, and San Fran. His poor road splits are skewed by poor performance in three of the four other NL West ballparks. In Arizona, Story's numbers are actually very good.
Story's played in 370 road games. Of those 370, he's played 177 in other NL West parks:
- Dodger Stadium (40 games): .236/.291/.479
- Oracle Park (46 games): .250/.310/.348
- Petco Park (45 games): .263/.314/.377
- Chase Field (46 games): .287/.372/.609
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He had a leg injury last year and I don't think he ever took adequate time off for it to heal. It's possible he'll look a lot better in the field this year if he's healthy again.
My laugh-out-loud (or at least chuckle-out-load) SoSH moment of the day. Well done!
My second Chuckle-out-loud moment in the same thread, the same morning. Well done!
Castellanos might actually fit better at 1B than RF in Fenway. He came up as a 3B so it's not ridiculous to imagine him in infield. I'm not a giant fan of his overall, but if you put him at 1st the Dalbec news fits and then you'd just need a platoon-y OF for RF or LF (with Verdugo flipping to RF). If Casas comes up sooner, then you can move Castellanos to LF or even DH.
Not advocating it, just thinking about scenarios given where the market seems to be going...
Not advocating it, just thinking about scenarios given where the market seems to be going...
Boston was somehow good enough for the Red Sox to sign David Price, JD Martinez, Daisuke, Manny Ramirez, Curt Schilling, Carl Crawford, JD Drew, Hanley Ramirez, Pablo Sandoval, or any other marquee free agents the Red Sox have landed over the years. There is certainly an argument to be made that the Sox don't want to blow money on a risky contract (and some of those names show their is reason for concern) but there is ZERO evidence that suggests the Sox have a hard time landing big free agents due to Boston not being an attractive place to play.
The Sox have been relatively inactive this off-season because they haven't wanted to pay market-rate for the best players. That might very well be a smart strategy, but I think it has nothing to do with Boston being an unattractive place to play. When they are willing to spend big, they tend to land these guys.
My only disappointment with Bloom thus far is that he has not picked up many particularly interesting arms to add to the bullpen/back-of-the-rotation pu-pu platter. Hopefully there are still a few out there.
My heart would give Christian Arroyo one more opportunity to play the full season at 2b. But my head looks at his injury history and says that offering Story a 1/$25m pillow contract to play second with an occasional start at SS for X makes a lot of sense. For Story, a short-term deal would let him prove that his 103 OPS+ last year was a fluke rather than a sign of decline and that he can hit outside of Colorado. I would not give Story a long-term deal at this point.
My heart would give Christian Arroyo one more opportunity to play the full season at 2b. But my head looks at his injury history and says that offering Story a 1/$25m pillow contract to play second with an occasional start at SS for X makes a lot of sense. For Story, a short-term deal would let him prove that his 103 OPS+ last year was a fluke rather than a sign of decline and that he can hit outside of Colorado. I would not give Story a long-term deal at this point.
That seems a bit convoluted. If Castellanos is ultimately going to end up in the OF when Casas comes up, then he might as well just go straight there and leave Dalbec where he is for now. They can always move Castellanos to 1B later if Casas hits a bump or two or Dalbec completely shits the bed.
That said, Castellanos's price would have to come waaay down for him to make sense at all.
I’d be interested in Story if he’d be willing to play some 2B and we got him at a contract that he can return value on.
I can't picture us having any particular disadvantages with Japanese players except for it not being the West Coast (shorter flight, more Japanese people). Last time I went to a game in Japan, it was snowing. As long as the Sox are competitive, I think they'd be thought of in Japan as one of the more storied franchises and thus worth a look. West coast and Yankees would be top tier, then teams like the Sox, Cubs, Cardinals. Then everyone else (a likely no). Just my guess.
I think Story on a pillow contract or any kind of make good that involves him playing 2B is a pipe dream. He's a very good defensive shortstop. He's not changing positions in any scenario that involves him trying to play for his big contract.
That's not what I said, though. I think the way the team thinks (appropriately) is in terms of options. So, we don't know that Casas will make it and win the job and be an everyday starter. We don't know how Dalbec will hit this year. We don't know who else they might sign. What I'm saying is Castellanos can fit at 1B now and that might change later.
I wouldn't advocate for it, but I am pretty sure the team doesn't think in as linear and rigid a way as the above!
Generally I agree, but we just saw Trea Turner do this, so it’s not without very recent precedent.
Marcus Semien too. And he just signed a $175M contract after taking a SS sabbatical for a year. And he's older than Story by 2 years.
I get this logic and it might be true for some players. But it seems like this is a bit of a rationalization for Bloom's tepid off season. The team has historically gotten plenty of free agents. It is a "classic" team with arguably the best fans in baseball, with regular season games having a "playoff atmosphere" (which some players might be wary of, but most really love). I think the geography is a bit of red herring honestly. The team has money and a great tradition. They might not be able to get anyone they want, but if they pull the trigger they can certainly get top guys. They have historically and they can do so now and in the future.