Red Sox in season discussion

Petagine in a Bottle

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Well, color me surprised. A one year deal to JD doesn’t seem like the worst thing in the world and may help the team avoid a long term deal with someone else that they’d regret.

I think the deals so far suggest an uncertain market, teams and players seem to be all over the place with their decisions.
 

Minneapolis Millers

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Well, we KNEW there'd be an uncertain market, unless/until a new CBS is done. Really can't be too surprised by JD's decision.
 

budcrew08

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Well, color me surprised. A one year deal to JD doesn’t seem like the worst thing in the world and may help the team avoid a long term deal with someone else that they’d regret.

I think the deals so far suggest an uncertain market, teams and players seem to be all over the place with their decisions.
Well, there’s a good chance a work stoppage starts Dec 1, so maybe the idea of steady employment was the key?
 

mauidano

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Who’s surprised that JD decided to stay a Red Sox and not test the waters?
Not me. I voted in the poll he would stay. He's made a TON of money already. He likes the team and the city. He'll have a better shot next year to make the last run at money. Happy he is staying.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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Well, there’s a good chance a work stoppage starts Dec 1, so maybe the idea of steady employment was the key?
Nobody gets paid in the event of a work stoppage. But the fear of an abbreviated offseason and the risk of having to settle for a deal with a crappy team may not have been appealing.

Hell, who knows long he plans on playing anyways. Feel like the last few years have led a lot people, athletes included, to reassess their priorities.
 

radsoxfan

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I still am skeptical JD is on the team. That contract is a valuable trade chip.
Unless JD misread the market it’s not valuable at all.

Best case scenario is it’s pretty neutral and we can trade him in a helpful roster shuffle type of trade for 2 teams .

If we want to trade him, wouldn’t be surprised if we have to eat a few million or give up a mediocre prospect.
 

RedOctober3829

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Unless JD misread the market it’s not valuable at all.

Best case scenario is it’s pretty neutral and we can trade him in a helpful roster shuffle type of trade for 2 teams .

If we want to trade him, wouldn’t be surprised if we have to eat a few million or give up a mediocre prospect.
A 1 year deal for a great hitter is pretty valuable I’d think. He didn’t opt out because he probably wouldn’t get a raise off of 19 million for a multi year deal.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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He’s also really only expendable if the Sox sign Schwarber to a big deal. Now that you’ve got JD under contract, I think it’s a lot harder to bring Schwarber back, unless the payroll is going to increase substantially. They need pitching.
 

radsoxfan

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A 1 year deal for a great hitter is pretty valuable I’d think. He didn’t opt out because he probably wouldn’t get a raise off of 19 million for a multi year deal.
I don’t buy it, best case scenario it’s neutral or VERY mildly positive value.

If a 1 year deal at 19M is has any significant value around the league makes no sense for JD to opt in. He could have just opted out and signed a 1 year 20+M deal as a FA instead.

If JD puts a lot of personal value on being in Boston, perhaps that changes things a small amount .Would be a bit silly through, knowing they still may trade him.
 
Good explanations in this thread of why he made this decision--work stoppage, CBA, uncertain market, QO, etc. I'm wondering how/whether the QO might come into play after next season, though. JD will be a year older, which will make the QO an even bigger albatross. Is there a sense that the QO will be eliminated in the next CBA? Is that what he's counting on?
 

Minneapolis Millers

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I would have thought so, but the fact that he opted in sort of suggests otherwise.
His trade value could change. The risks that are motivating players and teams now might dissipate with a new CBA. For now, I think it's fine for both JD and the Sox that he decided to stay.
 

EvilEmpire

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I'm wondering how/whether the QO might come into play after next season, though. JD will be a year older, which will make the QO an even bigger albatross. Is there a sense that the QO will be eliminated in the next CBA? Is that what he's counting on?
Will Boston give him a QO next year if there is a decent chance he might take it?
 

cantor44

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I think JD opting in forecloses the chance of Schwarber getting an offer from the Sox, but I could be wrong. Obviously the D was a fatal flaw and having both those guys on the roster has a significant downside there, as nice as it is having both bats. I suppose the Sox could have them both and work a rotation of guys getting starts, to keep the offensive depth, while trying to mitigate the cost to the D .... but, we'll see.
 

chawson

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I think JD opting in forecloses the chance of Schwarber getting an offer from the Sox, but I could be wrong. Obviously the D was a fatal flaw and having both those guys on the roster has a significant downside there, as nice as it is having both bats. I suppose the Sox could have them both and work a rotation of guys getting starts, to keep the offensive depth, while trying to mitigate the cost to the D .... but, we'll see.
I’m surprised JDM opted in but am unconvinced he won’t be traded.

If not, I still think it’s likelier than not we re-sign Schwarber and trade Dalbec. Schwarber makes a fine one-year bridge at first base to Casas before taking the DH role full-time. It doesn’t make as much sense to put Dalbec on that track and make him a full-time DH as a 27-year-old pre-arb player. He’d have move value to another team as their 1B.
 

EvilEmpire

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I think it is more likely than not that Schwarber gets a good offer from a team where he won't have to play 1B for a year. Does he want to play a full season at 1B?

I'm curious what Schwarber will do now that he has a choice.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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If you bring back, Schwarber, how do you fix the pitching? I just don’t see how they can manage the payroll with both should-be DH’s while addressing the real concerns on the defensive side.
 

chawson

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If you bring back, Schwarber, how do you fix the pitching? I just don’t see how they can manage the payroll with both should-be DH’s while addressing the real concerns on the defensive side.
You extend E-Rod for one, and then you trade some combination of Dalbec, Duran and Arroyo for pitching.

Reclamation projects aside, it’s almost never a good plan to lure a free agent starting pitcher to Boston on a multi-year contract. Trade-and-extends work, but we’re outbid on signings, and when we aren’t it’s been regrettable.

For example, a trade built around Duran and Frankie Montas would make sense for both teams. Oakland gets an exciting young, CA-raised outfielder to build around, and we two cheapish years of a #2 pitcher. If he’s a good fit in Boston, let’s talk about keeping him around. I think moves like that are less risky than trying to outbid the field for Gausman at roughly 6/$140m.
 

E5 Yaz

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For example, a trade built around Duran and Frankie Montas would make sense for both teams. Oakland gets an exciting young, CA-raised outfielder to build around,
How exactly has Duran proven himself to be "exciting," never mind a player worthy of being built around by a team
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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I agree with bringing back E-Rod, but can the team afford to bring back E-Rod and Schwarber, with JD opting in, and then flip cheap young players like Duran and Dalbec? That would represent a pretty big bump in payroll. They need to have more productive and cheap players, not less (not to mention that the cost on someone like Montas is probably higher than that).
 

grepal

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Well, color me surprised. A one year deal to JD doesn’t seem like the worst thing in the world and may help the team avoid a long term deal with someone else that they’d regret.

I think the deals so far suggest an uncertain market, teams and players seem to be all over the place with their decisions.
I am not really upset, if the Sox are not competitive he can be traded. Gives everyone a full year to see if Bobby D can be a big bat and another year on the farm for Casas. In a year Sox can decide if they want to rotate Tristan, Bobby and Devers between the field and DH. As a DH JD gets a lot of money but he is still a productive bat. Question remains about fixing the pitching. With Sale getting almost 20 and Bogie probably getting a huge raise in a year we really should not spend almost 20 mil on a DH. Just thinking here but do we trade Bogie for a good pitcher with a couple years of control and go in on one og the big FA shortstops or do we ride with Bogie for a year as is let him hit the market and fill with a stop gap for a couple of years hoping Mayer is everything they believe he is. Chaim has a few big decisions to make.
 

chawson

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I agree with bringing back E-Rod, but can the team afford to bring back E-Rod and Schwarber, with JD opting in, and then flip cheap young players like Duran and Dalbec? That would represent a pretty big bump in payroll. They need to have more productive and cheap players, not less.
They have a lot of cheap players! Pivetta, Whitlock and Houck — which could be three-fifths of the rotation — make peanuts and the outfield makes about $16 million. Arroyo makes nothing. Devers will probably sign an extension at some point but his 2022 projected AAV is still only $11m. Vazquez is not a great value at $7 but he’s hardly expensive.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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They are at ~$160m estimated. Bringing back Schwarber and E-Rod is going to bring you to around $190 at least. A few relievers and a utility infielder and you are over $200m. Is that doable? Is that team good enough esp knowing all the long term contracts that need to get done in the next few years?
 

nvalvo

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They are at ~$175m estimated. Bringing back Schwarber and E-Rod is going to bring you to around $205m at least. A few relievers and a utility infielder and you are pushing $220. Is that doable?
Looks to me like yes. There's ~$60m coming off (Price, Eovaldi, JDM, Vazquez) after 2022. We don't quite know what the new CBT thresholds are going to be, but I would guess they are in the ballpark of where they are now. The team can go over for a year without incurring severe penalties, and easily dip back under the following year.

Whether pushing our DH budget to ~$40m in AAV is a smart use of resources is a different question.
 

chawson

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How exactly has Duran proven himself to be "exciting," never mind a player worthy of being built around by a team
I mean, I’m with you here. We should have moved him before the hype train crashed into the mountain. But he definitely still has value.

The trade value site says a Duran for Montas and Elvis Andrus (1/$6.75m) trade almost works, and I wouldn’t mind that at all, factoring that we’d drop a few mil on a utility infielder anyway.

They are at ~$160m estimated. Bringing back Schwarber and E-Rod is going to bring you to around $190 at least. A few relievers and a utility infielder and you are over $200m. Is that doable? Is that team good enough?
I believe Sox fans should hold ownership to the standard of strategically going over the luxury tax threshold, so yes.
 
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ngruz25

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I think it is more likely than not that Schwarber gets a good offer from a team where he won't have to play 1B for a year. Does he want to play a full season at 1B?

I'm curious what Schwarber will do now that he has a choice.
Yeah, the idea of signing Schwarber so that he can bust his butt to learn how to play a new position for one year seems far-fetched. Why would he want to sign that deal? He'll get a 5 year deal for a healthy chunk of money to DH/occasionally play the OF somewhere and be happy.

I'd rather just stick with Dalbec at 1B and spend the Schwarber money elsewhere.
 

scottyno

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If you bring back, Schwarber, how do you fix the pitching? I just don’t see how they can manage the payroll with both should-be DH’s while addressing the real concerns on the defensive side.
The pitching that needs to be fixed is the bullpen, which they were always going to be unlikely to fix by throwing big money at many big names.

They already have 6 potential starters under contract, and that's without Erod
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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I guess it all comes down to what the luxury tax threshold and penalties are. But with Devers and Bogaerts future looming, as well as all the potential FA’s and holes to fix after next year, team building will be easier with productive pre arb players. Maybe Duran and Dalbec aren’t those guys and now is the time to dump them but could also be selling low.

Seems possible that they can only manage one of Rodriguez / Schwarber given all the other short and long term needs; if so I’d prioritize Eduardo for sure. Also seems quite possible neither guy returns.

Locking up Schwarber long term, based on the teams current and future assets and needs, just doesn’t seem like a great move to me.
 

allmanbro

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I don't think the Sox should be too worried about going over that tax threshold in 2022 given all the money they have coming off the books after next year. They can easily spend 2022 over the cap, add more before 2023, and still dip back below. If they think Schwarber could be a significant part of the next few years, one year of overlap with JD shouldn't make that impossible.

I assume they would have some interest in moving JD - but I wonder if they are motivated enough to send significant money with him. Does one year of JD + $12M subsidy get worthwhile pitching?
 

scottyno

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We have no idea if the luxury tax is a concern or not because we don't know what the penalties are going to be. If it's just money then really it's not much concern at all, the point of resetting the tax in the current CBA was that it hit you with actual penalties that made it harder to build a team, not just financial ones.
 

cantor44

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They are at ~$160m estimated. Bringing back Schwarber and E-Rod is going to bring you to around $190 at least. A few relievers and a utility infielder and you are over $200m. Is that doable? Is that team good enough esp knowing all the long term contracts that need to get done in the next few years?
Well, to be totally unsentimental .... After 2022, you could/might shed JD, ERod (if accepts QO, which I actually think he will), Vazquez, Eovaldi, Sale, and, yes Xander (he's one of my favorite Red Sox ever - well, at least in my top 10 ever, but just spit-balling) ....that's a lot of salary off the books ....This might let you sign Schwarber, with an eye on a youth movement accelerated in 2023 (Schwarb's a good veteran tutor), and plenty of money to sign FAs (re-signing a guy or two above, and outside the organization), or make trades, or just allow a step back in the W-L column as you begin building the Casas/Yorke era core., with Mayer not too far behind ...

EDIT: That is to say, the team might be a position to overspend in 2022 as a last charge with this particular core, and dip back under the tax in 2023. Overspending this year - with so many contracts coming off the books and/or opt outs after the season - doesn't handcuff the team's future maneuverability ....
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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I'm mildly surprised about JD picking up his option... I suspect the possible lockout is to blame. He has to be aware that his skills could be deteriorating and that it's more likely than not it'll continue into '22. But most players I suspect see their age related decline as just a small bump that will be overcome anytime now.
Totally not sure what the plan is with Schwarber now. Bloom obviously likes him but it'd be pretty tricky to try and have both JD and Schwarber on the same team again, and it's far, far far too soon to give up on Dalbec. I suspect the FO will put a hard ceiling on Schwarber's worth and try to bring him in at that... if he accepts it, great. They'll try and deal JD (and offer to pick up some $ subsidy). If he doesn't and looks elsewhere, we'll be looking at basically the same offense as '21. Fine. Despite the inconsistencies and hot/cold runs, they were still in the top 5 offenses in the league. I imagine that if they do get Schwarber, a partially subsidized JD would bring back at least a very good prospect or a good reliever.
I said before that if I was betting on just single years... I'm probably split on which of Schwarber or JD will be better in '22. Over the next 5 years? Definitely Schwarber.
 

Minneapolis Millers

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What kind of deal do people expect Schwarber to sign? Will he get more than good bat/bad glove Ozuna did (4/$65M)? Sox could come out ahead, financially at least, if they could get Schwarbs for that, then deal JD, say, to the offensively (and otherwise) challenged Mess for a QO-signed Syndegaard. Just spitballing here...

(Edit: Just remembered that players signing a QO can't be traded until June, so dealing for Thor this offseason would be out.)
 
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