Red Sox in season discussion

Philip Jeff Frye

Member
SoSH Member
Oct 23, 2001
9,355
Why not actually look at the players in the org who will be here next year and assess that?
So that's presumably the soon-to-leave Devers, the hopefully-solid Story, the fragile Sale, the disappointing Verdugo, the "we can't figure out how to use him" Whitlock, the "maybe the closer" Houck, a bunch of young players who have massively disappointed this year and who exactly?
 

Philip Jeff Frye

Member
SoSH Member
Oct 23, 2001
9,355
And the rest of the players on the various IL lists
Are you sure about that? Kike, JDM*, Hill, Strahm, Wacha, Taylor and possibly Paxton are not under contract next year. Story, Devers and Barnes are the only certainties to be back - and is anybody looking forward to Barnes's return?

* not actually on IL right now, just day-to-day
 

Petagine in a Bottle

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 13, 2021
6,631
Are you sure about that? Kike, JDM, Hill, Strahm, Wacha, Taylor and possibly Paxton are not under contract next year. Story, Devers and Barnes are the only certainties to be back - and is anybody looking forward to Barnes's return?
Perhaps he is considering Tyler Danish, Christian Arroyo, and Connor Seabold as part of the core.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 13, 2021
6,631
Seems likely. Cora has said Wacha and Hill will need rehab starts. So unless they acquire someone from outside the org, seems like it’s Bello’s start.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 23, 2009
17,588
Maine
Seems likely. Cora has said Wacha and Hill will need rehab starts. So unless they acquire someone from outside the org, seems like it’s Bello’s start.
There is one more (healthy) starting pitcher on the 40-man roster that could be called up if they don't want to completely wreck Bello's confidence: Jay Groome. He hasn't been dominant in Portland or now Worcester, but he's been pretty good (ERA around 3.50, WHIP around 1.25 over 87 total innings). I can't imagine giving him a shot would be significantly worse than sticking with Bello.
 

bosox188

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 11, 2008
2,458
Westerly, RI
There is one more (healthy) starting pitcher on the 40-man roster that could be called up if they don't want to completely wreck Bello's confidence: Jay Groome. He hasn't been dominant in Portland or now Worcester, but he's been pretty good (ERA around 3.50, WHIP around 1.25 over 87 total innings). I can't imagine giving him a shot would be significantly worse than sticking with Bello.
I think it could certainly be significantly worse. The gap between AAA and MLB is as big as ever, you really need to be dominating AAA, and even then you're still likely to have a rough entry into the MLB. Groome was only recently called up to Worcester, and in his time there his K/BB ratio is less than half of Bello's. That could be catastrophic.
 

Humphrey

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 3, 2010
2,343
I think they'd be happy to get what they got out of Bello in a future start. There were some cheap hits and the team defensively played worse than he pitched on top of that. And, of course, all the black holes in the lineup. Pitched well enough to keep them in the game.
 

Kliq

Member
SoSH Member
Mar 31, 2013
19,716
I find myself going back-and-forth a bit on the season. The team has been playing really poorly, but injuries have totally decimated the pitching staff, and the lineup has been injured, as well as none of the gambles really working out. Dalbec stinks, Franchy is a pumpkin, Kike has been injured/bad, Verdugo is okay but not a reliable cornerstone, JBJ is still a black hole, etc.

No team is going to be able to sustain the level of injuries that the Sox have had and still be in contention. At the same time; while last season Bloom and the front office looked like geniuses with many of their bargain-bin moves really panning out (Kike being our best player, Renfrow mashing, Schwarber being a beast after the deadline, Pivetta delivering, Whitlock being lights-out) this season has really evened things out. Wacha and Hill were both injury risks for different reasons (Wacha hadn't thrown a full season of innings since 2017, Hill was 42) and Paxton obviously was a known injury issue. There has been no Garrett Whitlock to boost the bullpen forward, and the result has been a lot of JAGs being JAGs.

It's easy to blame the injuries but at the same time, the team was not constructed at all to handle any injuries, especially for games like this past series with Devers on the IL, where you take him (and Story, who has also been a disappointment) out of the lineup and it looks like a lineup that would struggle to hit in AAA. The injuries have highlighted a lot of weaknesses within the team, and I wonder how quickly the roster can be altered to increase depth and avoid simply gambling on health, or gambling that guys like Kike are going to be 5 WAR players.
 

HangingW/ScottCooper

Member
SoSH Member
Nov 10, 2006
2,152
Scituate, MA
They should 100% be sellers. I'd hate to see Bogaerts leave, but pretty much anyone other than Devers should be available. Perhaps be opportunistic and deal Vazquez and target someone like Sean Murphy who has a few years left, find takers for anyone else that isn't part of your future plans.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 23, 2009
17,588
Maine
It's easy to blame the injuries but at the same time, the team was not constructed at all to handle any injuries, especially for games like this past series with Devers on the IL, where you take him (and Story, who has also been a disappointment) out of the lineup and it looks like a lineup that would struggle to hit in AAA. The injuries have highlighted a lot of weaknesses within the team, and I wonder how quickly the roster can be altered to increase depth and avoid simply gambling on health, or gambling that guys like Kike are going to be 5 WAR players.
Not sure I agree that the team wasn't constructed to handle any injuries. They weren't the deepest team in the league at the start of the season, but they were deep enough to get by with one or two pitchers on the IL at a time. And they were okay with one or two position players on the IL at a time. There are a dozen players on the IL right now who have played at least one game for them this season (so I'm excluding Taylor and Paxton). That's a big hurdle for even the deepest team to overcome.
 

Ganthem

a ray of sunshine
SoSH Member
Apr 7, 2022
836
Not sure I agree that the team wasn't constructed to handle any injuries. They weren't the deepest team in the league at the start of the season, but they were deep enough to get by with one or two pitchers on the IL at a time. And they were okay with one or two position players on the IL at a time. There are a dozen players on the IL right now who have played at least one game for them this season (so I'm excluding Taylor and Paxton). That's a big hurdle for even the deepest team to overcome.
I would also argue that as decimated as the pitching staff is, Winchowski and Crawford are doing nicely as fill ins. It can be argued that Bloom's plans for the rotation actually panned out. Sale went down right away and Wacha was able to step in. When Houck wasn't able to go to Canada Whitlock stepped in and did decently. When it was necessary to dip into the farm, there were Bellos and Seabolds, but also Winchowski and Crawfords. At the end of the day very few if any teams would be able to trot out an effective rotation with the number of injuries that accumulated. At the end of the day the Sox had an envious amount of depth at starting pitching. Sometimes things shake out badly.
 
Jul 16, 2005
100
They should 100% be sellers. I'd hate to see Bogaerts leave, but pretty much anyone other than Devers should be available. Perhaps be opportunistic and deal Vazquez and target someone like Sean Murphy who has a few years left, find takers for anyone else that isn't part of your future plans.
I think there's a strong chance the Sox have a different catcher next year. Murphy is a good option, but they might also obtain a younger catcher in one of the expected deadline deals.
 

Rovin Romine

Johnny Rico
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Jul 14, 2005
18,772
Miami (oh, Miami!)
I think they'd be happy to get what they got out of Bello in a future start. There were some cheap hits and the team defensively played worse than he pitched on top of that. And, of course, all the black holes in the lineup. Pitched well enough to keep them in the game.
I was actually pretty heartened by Bello's start (in isolation.) He didn't seem especially emotional or rattled (on the mound) in what would be a stressful embarassment to many young pitchers. He didn't lose focus - he kept with the new game-plan of challenging hitters. It bodes very well for him.

IMO, he certainly has a floor as a power arm in relief. He's got 4 legit pitches, but their effectiveness may or may not play deep into games as a ML starter. I didn't see anything prohibitive on that front, and think he has a shot of doing well as a starter. In one capacity or another, he will probably crack the ML club full-time next year.
 

Yaz4Ever

stumps for Trump
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
They should 100% be sellers. I'd hate to see Bogaerts leave, but pretty much anyone other than Devers should be available. Perhaps be opportunistic and deal Vazquez and target someone like Sean Murphy who has a few years left, find takers for anyone else that isn't part of your future plans.
I’m guessing Murphy would cost us less, but I’d take either of their minor league backstops very happily.
 

grimshaw

Member
SoSH Member
May 16, 2007
3,953
Portland
Travis d'Arnaud is someone who could be available too. William Contreras has been a stud.
They are both having great seasons but it seems like the Braves could part with d'Arnaud to shore up another position.
 

Yelling At Clouds

Post-darwinian
SoSH Member
Jul 19, 2005
2,738
They should 100% be sellers. I'd hate to see Bogaerts leave, but pretty much anyone other than Devers should be available. Perhaps be opportunistic and deal Vazquez and target someone like Sean Murphy who has a few years left, find takers for anyone else that isn't part of your future plans.
Travis d'Arnaud is someone who could be available too. William Contreras has been a stud.
They are both having great seasons but it seems like the Braves could part with d'Arnaud to shore up another position.
I ask this as a genuine question: what’s the opinion of Joey Bart these days? Is he a change-of-scenery candidate or do the Giants still think he’s a future star?
 

grimshaw

Member
SoSH Member
May 16, 2007
3,953
Portland
I ask this as a genuine question: what’s the opinion of Joey Bart these days? Is he a change-of-scenery candidate or do the Giants still think he’s a future star?
Just an educated guess, but he was sent down for month in June and the Giants were rumored to be interested in Wilson Contreras so I would think he's available. But maybe they see it as a win now and try again next season with him.

His 42% k-rate would nestle right in to this lineup.
 

absintheofmalaise

too many flowers
Dope
SoSH Member
Mar 16, 2005
20,684
The gran facenda
Travis d'Arnaud is someone who could be available too. William Contreras has been a stud.
They are both having great seasons but it seems like the Braves could part with d'Arnaud to shore up another position.
They could use another OF now that Duvall is toast for the season. d'Arnaud is signed through 2023 @ $8 million per season with a team option for 2024. Anderson has been trending down in his last starts. I'm not sure what they're ml depth is, but they seem to always have good pitching prospects to call up. I'd love to have Contreras on the Sox, but I doubt that will happen. But maybe the Sox could put together some sort of package with Duran and one of the starters to pry Contreras away and they could have Vazquez at 1B with Contreras behind the plate. Or d'Arnaud instead of Contreras.
 

chawson

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 1, 2006
3,268
Travis d'Arnaud is someone who could be available too. William Contreras has been a stud.
They are both having great seasons but it seems like the Braves could part with d'Arnaud to shore up another position.
That's kind of interesting. d'Arnaud is nothing all that special with the bat but he's an excellent pitch framer. He's on a 2/$16M contract for '23-24, assuming his option gets picked up. With Duvall out and the disgraced Marcell Ozuna playing badly, maybe they'd do it for JDM? Maybe we add JBJ and take back Eddie Rosario for an additional 40 FV prospect?

That assumes it's useful to us to lock in d'Arnaud's age 34-35 seasons at 2/$16M when there are plenty of other catchers on the board. It probably is.
 

grimshaw

Member
SoSH Member
May 16, 2007
3,953
Portland
That's kind of interesting. d'Arnaud is nothing all that special with the bat but he's an excellent pitch framer. He's on a 2/$16M contract for '23-24, assuming his option gets picked up. With Duvall out and the disgraced Marcell Ozuna playing badly, maybe they'd do it for JDM? Maybe we add JBJ and take back Eddie Rosario for an additional 40 FV prospect?

That assumes it's useful to us to lock in d'Arnaud's age 34-35 seasons at 2/$16M when there are plenty of other catchers on the board. It probably is.
d'Arnaud is actually a pretty decent hitting catcher and he's had quite a few very rough injuries.

Purely hitting since 2019:
Realmuto .266/.335/.456 wRC+ 109
d'Arnaud .259/.318/.446 wRC+ 105
Vazquez .271/.319/.425 wRC+ 97
 

nvalvo

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 16, 2005
20,016
Rogers Park
d'Arnaud is actually a pretty decent hitting catcher and he's had quite a few very rough injuries.

Purely hitting since 2019:
Realmuto .266/.335/.456 wRC+ 109
d'Arnaud .259/.318/.446 wRC+ 105
Vazquez .271/.319/.425 wRC+ 97
Wilson Contreras .253/.354/.469 wRC+ 121

What is our sense of Wilson Contreras' likely future contract? He's only decent defensively, but he's a good OBP guy with a little pop, and I wouldn't mind paying retail on an FA catcher with so little in the system at that position.
 

grimshaw

Member
SoSH Member
May 16, 2007
3,953
Portland
Wilson Contreras .253/.354/.469 wRC+ 121

What is our sense of Wilson Contreras' likely future contract? He's only decent defensively, but he's a good OBP guy with a little pop, and I wouldn't mind paying retail on an FA catcher with so little in the system at that position.
Grandal signed for 4/73 but was coming off two studly seasons.

I dunno 5/60ish?

I also just found out it's WiIlson Contreras
 

Petagine in a Bottle

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 13, 2021
6,631
234/302/374 in 1300+ PA over parts of 9 seasons. 33 years old. Switch hitter; much better against RH than LH. Has played CF more than RF and LF. Looks like another body, comparable to Davis and Stewart.
 

chawson

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 1, 2006
3,268
d'Arnaud is actually a pretty decent hitting catcher and he's had quite a few very rough injuries.

Purely hitting since 2019:
Realmuto .266/.335/.456 wRC+ 109
d'Arnaud .259/.318/.446 wRC+ 105
Vazquez .271/.319/.425 wRC+ 97
A slight concern with d'Arnaud is that a lot of that production comes from lefty-mashing. Hardly a bad quality but I'd want someone who handles righties better from the starting backstop than he has the last couple years.

vs. R since 2021:
Realmuto .266/.338/.433 wRC+ 109
Contreras .232/.346/.402 wRC+ 109
Narvaez .272/.350/.416 wRC+ 107
Vázquez .276/.328/.391 wRC+ 97
Sanchez .210/.295/.410 wRC+ 95
d'Arnaud .224/.276/.402 wRC+ 83
Zunino .152/.228/.374 wRC+ 68

vs. L since 2021:
Zunino .291/.367/.728 wRC+ 196
Contreras .284/.373/.589 wRC+ 157
d'Arnaud .309/.374/.505 wRC+ 140
Realmuto .242/.333/.399 wRC+ 100
Sanchez .202/.290/.427 wRC+ 96
Vázquez .240/.277/.362 wRC+ 71
Narvaez .176/.265/.231 wRC+ 42

Considering we''ve got two catchers besides Vaz on the 40-man already, maybe a little deal for Narvaez in a handedness platoon with Wong could work? But we've got plenty of money for Contreras.
 

Apisith

Member
SoSH Member
Oct 19, 2007
2,986
Bangkok
It would be nice to see what Schreiber + Whitlock + Houck could do in the playoffs. Just need to patch up the rotation, somehow, and sneak into the playoffs.
 

E5 Yaz

Transcends message boarding
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Apr 25, 2002
81,038
Oregon
Darwinzon Hernandez sent back to Worcester
Phillips Valdez DFA'd

/masslive
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

Member
SoSH Member
Mar 11, 2007
4,634
Darwinzon Hernandez sent back to Worcester
Phillips Valdez DFA'd

/masslive
Valdez clears up a spot on the 40-man too. I had expectations of him figuring out some consistency and being a good BP arm but oh well. I thought Rudy Guliani was going to be our President in '08 too...
Generally expecting more DFA's coming up for the more useless of BP arms (Ort next?)