Red Sox in season discussion

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Am I the only one reading into Yorke not being among the names mentioned in the tweet? In theory, if Bloom expects to extend/re-sign Xander then 2B is now locked up long-term with the Story signing, making Yorke a more logical trade piece.
Does the tweet have any credibility at all before we spend the rest of the night parsing it?
 

curly2

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Arroyo talked about learning to play outfield. It might be hard to do in such a short time before the opener, but if he could play left, he could play LF vs. lefties, with Verdugo going to RF and JBJ sitting. Granted it was small sample size, but Arroyo was much better vs, lefties last year.

Vs RHP (107 PA) .213/.302/.383/.685
Va. LHP (74PA) .329/.356/.529/.885
 

Rwillh11

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Am I the only one reading into Yorke not being among the names mentioned in the tweet? In theory, if Bloom expects to extend/re-sign Xander then 2B is now locked up long-term with the Story signing, making Yorke a more logical trade piece.
In the comment below the initial tweet he says Yorke is also off-limits, although it's not clear that he knows anything anyways.
 

TapeAndPosts

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Am I the only one reading into Yorke not being among the names mentioned in the tweet? In theory, if Bloom expects to extend/re-sign Xander then 2B is now locked up long-term with the Story signing, making Yorke a more logical trade piece.
The mention of Yorke was in the comments and it's aligned with your thoughts — someone else said "Also Nick Yorke! He's untouchable" and the original guy Pepen responded something like 'That's right! I didn't mention him because it could mature if they extend Bogaerts".
 

nvalvo

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Fair enough. Interestingly, the A's have really seemed to aim for prospects that are closer to the majors in their recent trades... I guess the question is how would you feel about giving up Duran (plus) to get Manaea? I think they'll be able to get a better offer for Montas.
I don't think I would give up Duran in a deal for one year of Manaea — and certainly not Duran+. Duran's a big piece of our outfield depth in the present, and still has a ton of future upside. I like Manaea, but he gives me Zito vibes with his low velo repertoire, and I worry about how he'd age. I wouldn't want to extend him far into his thirties.

I would absolutely give up Duran as part of what would have to be a pretty rich package for two seasons from Montas, not least because I think Montas is a much better candidate for a big extension. The trade sim thinks Duran, Dalbec and Bello is fair for Montas, and I think I would likely do that and then try to lock up Montas for five years or so.

edit: Which of these packages would people approve sending out for Montas?

A) Duran, Dalbec, and Bello.
B) Duran, Whitlock, and Jimenez.
C) Yorke in a 1-for-1.
 
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I don't think I would give up Duran in a deal for one year of Manaea — and certainly not Duran+. Duran's a big piece of our outfield depth in the present, and still has a ton of future upside. I like Manaea, but he gives me Zito vibes with his low velo repertoire, and I worry about how he'd age. I wouldn't want to extend him far into his thirties.

I would absolutely give up Duran as part of what would have to be a pretty rich package for two seasons from Montas, not least because I think Montas is a much better candidate for a big extension. The trade sim thinks Duran, Dalbec and Bello is fair for Montas, and I think I would likely do that and then try to lock up Montas for five years or so.

Another option would be a deal built around Whitlock.
Why would you consider trading Whitlock? We don't have a whole lot of young, controlled, really good pitchers.
 

GB5

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Two questions:

1. granted we have more spring training to go but assuming there are no more additions to the bullpen, if tomorrow was opening day and we took a 1 run lead into the 9th…are we safe to assume the ball goes to Barnes?

2. is the original schedule reinstated. Are we opening withTampa at home. I know those games were at one point cancelled, but with the intent to play 162, are we back to the pre lockout schedule?
 

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Montas is a young, controlled, really good pitcher. Why would the A's consider trading him?
Come on. The A's regularly trade players with two years of control in their restock/rebuild cycle. You're making a false equivalence.
Regardless, my real point is that the Sox struggle to develop young pitching but are good with position players. You don't trade away one of your young pitchers for one of theirs. Or at least, I sure as hell don't.
 

chawson

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Adding Andrus and Arroyo to each side of a Duran+ for Montas deal keeps it from getting too wobbly in our favor. Arroyo would platoon with Tony Kemp at second, even get some meaningful time at 3B/SS while they work their prospects into the mix. Not sure if Andrus is ready to be a utility guy but he’s not sniffing a starting job this year.

I’ve said it before, but Chad Pinder is perfect for this team! Foremost lefty masher on the A’s. A perfect platoon guy for JBJ who can play passably anywhere. Numbers are much better away from Oakland. Free agent in a year.

Alex Binelas seems like someone the A’s could develop pretty well. The Renfroe trade would make a lot of sense if Bloom knew Beane liked Binelas as part of a package.

Sox get: Montas, Andrus, Pinder
A’s get: Duran, Arroyo, Bello, Binelas, Downs
 

nvalvo

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Come on. The A's regularly trade players with two years of control in their restock/rebuild cycle. You're making a false equivalence.
Regardless, my real point is that the Sox struggle to develop young pitching but are good with position players. You don't trade away one of your young pitchers for one of theirs. Or at least, I sure as hell don't.
Except that we do just that. We literally traded future ace Frankie Montas (as part of a package) for Jake Peavy, to help win a title.

Then the Dodgers fleeced Chicago for him, and then used him as the centerpiece in a deal to acquire Rich Hill (and Josh Reddick).

Sox get: Montas, Andrus, Pinder
A’s get: Duran, Arroyo, Bello, Binelas, Downs
I would certainly do this trade; whether Oakland would depends on how desperately they want to shed payroll, which... probably means they would do it, too.

No one else has even picked up on this tweet ... so we probably should hold off clear-cutting a bandwidth forest just yet
I agree with you that it isn't likely that this dude knows anything in particular, but you hardly need inside sources to know that the A's are likely sellers and the Sox are likely buyers, and to speculate about how they might match up.
 

E5 Yaz

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No one else has even picked up on this tweet ... so we probably should hold off clear-cutting a bandwidth forest just yet
 

JM3

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Whitlock is projected for a pretty big regression. If Bloom doesn't think '21 is repeatable, he could certainly sell high.
 

Apisith

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I think it's very hard to project Whitlock, and projection systems are going to be unreliable because his pitching repertoire isn't settled. He started off with a sinker/changeup, then incorporated a slider. The slider started off at 80mph, finished the season at 86mph. 4% of his pitches were sliders at the beginning of the season, ended September at 20% for the month. He's the biggest unknown.
 

Rice4HOF

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….
2. is the original schedule reinstated. Are we opening withTampa at home. I know those games were at one point cancelled, but with the intent to play 162, are we back to the pre lockout schedule?
The original schedule for games after April 7 stays pretty much the same. The first series got moved to end of season. So, we start in New York, and end the season in Tampa.
https://www.mlb.com/redsox/schedule/2022-03/list
 

JM3

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I think it's very hard to project Whitlock, and projection systems are going to be unreliable because his pitching repertoire isn't settled. He started off with a sinker/changeup, then incorporated a slider. The slider started off at 80mph, finished the season at 86mph. 4% of his pitches were sliders at the beginning of the season, ended September at 20% for the month. He's the biggest unknown.
He also outperformed his underlying #s last season. I have no clue if he'll actually regress or not, but if some other team values him much more than the Red Sox do, there's no reason to think Bloom wouldn't trade him.
 

grimshaw

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Hoping the Sox are waiting out Tommy Pham to see if he drops to a one year single digit deal. They have had few high .obp pain in the ass grinder type guy like Gardner lately so he'd be a great complement to Cora's philosophy of being aggressive with fastballs.

He's also a very good baserunner. Adding that along with Story (whose BsR was twice as good as Enriques' and top 10 in MLB last year) would really help in bringing back the look from Cora's first season when they were relentless on the bases.
 

Mo Vaughn Over!

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Hoping the Sox are waiting out Tommy Pham to see if he drops to a one year single digit deal. They have had few high .obp pain in the ass grinder type guy like Gardner lately so he'd be a great complement to Cora's philosophy of being aggressive with fastballs.

He's also a very good baserunner. Adding that along with Story (whose BsR was twice as good as Enriques' and top 10 in MLB last year) would really help in bringing back the look from Cora's first season when they were relentless on the bases.
While I’m sure you’re right about Pham being a good baserunner, funny enough I can’t help but think of this every time Pham is mentioned:

https://www.masslive.com/redsox/2019/04/christian-vazquez-ends-boston-red-sox-game-by-picking-off-runner-tommy-pham-at-first-base-video.html?outputType=amp
 

joe dokes

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Whitlock is projected for a pretty big regression. If Bloom doesn't think '21 is repeatable, he could certainly sell high.
But wouldn't a projection like that be available to any potential trade partner?
 

BringBackMo

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I see almost no chance that the Sox trade multiple top prospects during 2022. Maybe Downs could be dealt given that we now are getting a little flush with middle-infield options; and maybe Duran could be had in the right deal; and while I personally don’t think there’s any chance at all that Bello is dealt under any realistic trade scenarios, let’s assume that there’s some potential for that. Fine. But more than one of them in 2022? That strikes me as very unlikely.

I see Bloom as still being very much in prospect acquisition mode right now and can’t see him straying from that. The Sox will be good this year and I’m looking forward to a very entertaining season, but I don’t think Bloom is going all-in for 2022. For that reason, I expect there to be some holes on the team, and frontline starters seems like the main one, with perhaps an additional sure-fire late-inning bullpen arm in that category as well.

My guess is that they add the outfield bat many have been talking about, and perhaps acquire a couple of additional league-average arms. Then we wait and hope on Sale and Paxton, see what we have in Barnes, and reassess heading into the trade deadline. But even then, and even if the Sox are looking like contenders, I think it’s unlikely Bloom deals the top prospects. I’m not saying that because I think all, or even any, of them are going to hit. I just think he’ll wait to trade them during seasons when he’s ready to go all-in for a championship—and when he’s confident that he’s got waves of replacement prospects behind them. Long term sustainability of the system is clearly a top priority to him.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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You can never have too much pitching but I’m not sure they have to trade for a top starter right now - it seems most prudent to start the season with Houck in the rotation and see how things go with Sale’s rehab and to a lesser longer term extent, Paxton. Re-evaluate throughout the season. I guess if the A’s are moving Montas and / or Manea right now, you have to do your due diligence, but a little challenging to see a fit.
 

simplicio

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I remain unconvinced that we see Paxton before the trade deadline; that deal strikes me mostly as a play for next year, with the hedge of being made cheaper had the lockout eaten into the season.
 

Rovin Romine

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You can never have too much pitching but I’m not sure they have to trade for a top starter right now - it seems most prudent to start the season with Houck in the rotation and see how things go with Sale’s rehab and to a lesser longer term extent, Paxton. Re-evaluate throughout the season. I guess if the A’s are moving Montas and / or Manea right now, you have to do your due diligence, but a little challenging to see a fit.
Eovaldi, Pivetta, Hill, Wacha, Houck, (Sale), (Paxton), Seabold/Heart/Etc.

Well, we've got a pretty steep drop-off after #5, and we're over the luxury tax, so this is not a purely punting year, IMO. The easiest move would be to put Houck in long relief, and thus lengthen the bullpen as well.

Also, they could still go into punt mode at the deadline, dropping below the lux tax, given the following pending FA. JD $19M, Eovaldi $17M, Hernandez $8M, Wacha $7M, Vaz $7M, Hill $5M.


Also, let's take a moment and consider the Pivetta/Seabold for Hembee/Workman trade in Aug 2020. Insane.
 

Rwillh11

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Any talk of losing Whitlock is crazy talk. He is must-see-TV for me. Has anyone done a study of the reliability of predictions of reversion to the mean? How have those predictions stood up?
That's a really tough question to answer. Just thinking about how prediction models are built, the good ones will be fairly accurate at predicting reversion to the mean. The idea is that you have a validation step in which you test your prediction on real data (which should include data where players have "breakout" years) and select the model which preforms best.

I'm pretty sure that the publicly available models are using outcome stats, rather than inputs like changes in velocity, spin rate and pitch mix, so that might make those models a little less likely to pick up "true" breakouts.
 

PrometheusWakefield

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Any talk of losing Whitlock is crazy talk. He is must-see-TV for me. Has anyone done a study of the reliability of predictions of reversion to the mean? How have those predictions stood up?
Whitlock and Houck are two of the most valuable assets in the Red Sox system. If that's what's necessary to get Montas.... then we should pass on Montas.

The much more likely trade imo is to package together some of our prospects for Montas, a Marlin pitcher or a cost controlled young outfielder. You only have a certain amount of playing time and 40 man roster spots. At some point, either now or midseason, we are going to want to trade in some chips.
 

chawson

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Whitlock is projected for a pretty big regression. If Bloom doesn't think '21 is repeatable, he could certainly sell high.
Whitlock is completely legit from a stuff and command perspective — a top-30 or so arm in baseball according to some advanced metrics. The only question I can see is whether it holds over a starter’s workload. (There’s no particular reason to think it can’t; it just hasn’t yet.) If it does, he’s probably about as valuable as Shane McClanahan or Shane Baz. If it doesn’t, he’s a Chad Green or Jonathan Loaisiga.

His stuff and command is better than Houck’s. If the Sox FO internally doesn’t think Houck can make the leap to a full-time starter, it makes more sense to move him than it does Whitlock.
 

TFisNEXT

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I remain unconvinced that we see Paxton before the trade deadline; that deal strikes me mostly as a play for next year, with the hedge of being made cheaper had the lockout eaten into the season.
It's almost certain he doesn't pitch prior to the deadline, but they will have a lot more information on how rehab is going by the time we reach the trade deadline. So that will affect trade deadline decisions. If they have positive outlooks on Chris Sale and Paxton by late July, they probably won't trade for much starting pitching.

I do expect them to acquire another #4/5 starter type though at some point either before the season starts or in the first couple months. Even if it's just for depth. There's not much reason to expect Eovaldi, Wacha, and Hill to all stay healthy. There is a ton of risk for this staff to go sideways if they don't beef up the depth a little more.
 

JM3

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But wouldn't a projection like that be available to any potential trade partner?
I don't think Bloom, or any GM, would be relying solely, or even primarily, on 3rd party regression models.

It's just what sparked the thought for me.
 

nvalvo

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I'm sorry I brought up the possibility of trading Whitlock. It's not something I would want to do, but I think some people in the thread should take a look at Frankie Montas' stats last season.

He's a legitimate ACE ace now, and the possibility of acquiring a player like is worth pursuing.
 

JM3

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A regression from amazing to really good? He’s a key piece of our pitching staff.
Sure, but if we could turn him into someone even better than really good because another team sees him as something bigger than he will be, that someone else could be an even more key member of our pitching staff.

I'm not suggesting I have any insight into that being a reality, but I don't see him as untouchable or anything for the right trade. He was a rule 5 draft pick last year. That's not usually the source of long term aces.

Obviously last season was great & fun to watch, but if he's really like a 3.30 ERA reliever long term, we missed our chance to sell high.
 

JM3

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Whitlock is completely legit from a stuff and command perspective — a top-30 or so arm in baseball according to some advanced metrics. The only question I can see is whether it holds over a starter’s workload. (There’s no particular reason to think it can’t; it just hasn’t yet.) If it does, he’s probably about as valuable as Shane McClanahan or Shane Baz. If it doesn’t, he’s a Chad Green or Jonathan Loaisiga.

His stuff and command is better than Houck’s. If the Sox FO internally doesn’t think Houck can make the leap to a full-time starter, it makes more sense to move him than it does Whitlock.
Sure. I like Whitlock a lot. & I also value him more than Houck. But if other teams value Whitlock as a 2nd starter & Houck as a 5th starter for example, you'd have to listen.

Most trades come down to how each team values a player. There are fewer & fewer really dumb teams out there to value players at ridiculous levels, though, & chances are trading Whitlock won't advance Bloom's goals. But I wouldn't be shocked if he's the centerpiece in a deal for a top young starter.
 

ehaz

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Ramon Laureano could be a nice target for a RHH OFer. He still has to serve ~20 games of his PED suspension but could be a nice cost-controllable platoon with JBJ in right and provide CF insurance should Hernandez leave in free agency.
 

JM3

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I'm sorry I brought up the possibility of trading Whitlock. It's not something I would want to do, but I think some people in the thread should take a look at Frankie Montas' stats last season.

He's a legitimate ACE ace now, and the possibility of acquiring a player like is worth pursuing.
Oh. This is your fault? I'll stop defending this position then lol

I don't think I'm as high on Montas. He's had 1 full season as a starter & he's already 29. Good season, but also a regression candidate who you would be buying high on.
 

jon abbey

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Ramon Laureano could be a nice target for a RHH OFer. He still has to serve ~20 games of his PED suspension but could be a nice cost-controllable platoon with JBJ in right and provide CF insurance should Hernandez leave in free agency.
Baseballtradevalues has Laureano at 60.5, not a simple acquisition. Houck and Duran would match, no way BOS does that though, I don't think.

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trade-simulator/
 

YTF

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Baseballtradevalues has Laureano at 60.5, not a simple acquisition. Houck and Duran would match, no way BOS does that though, I don't think.

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trade-simulator/
Laureano's not FA eligible until '25 so there will be a cost attached. Any idea what in addition might be Duran might be palatable? BTW, I want to say how good it feels to have these threads on the main board filled with activity again. All of us will never be in full agreement, but it's refreshing to have these threads filled with dialog, ideas and different POVs.
 

BringBackMo

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Sure, but if we could turn him into someone even better than really good because another team sees him as something bigger than he will be, that someone else could be an even more key member of our pitching staff.

I'm not suggesting I have any insight into that being a reality, but I don't see him as untouchable or anything for the right trade. He was a rule 5 draft pick last year. That's not usually the source of long term aces.

Obviously last season was great & fun to watch, but if he's really like a 3.30 ERA reliever long term, we missed our chance to sell high.
Not challenging you, genuinely curious about his underlying stats not supporting his final line. Can you provide some examples? What would a reasonable projection have been based upon those stats? From what I’ve read, scouts were as impressed with him as fans, so just curious how big a disconnect we’re talking about here. I have absolutely regarded him as untouchable.
 

nvalvo

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Well, if we're done adding (hardly a certainty), I would hope that this signing means we're looking into extensions for Devers, Bogaerts (if he'd take something like Story's deal), and perhaps shorter extensions for guys like Kiké.

We're now over the threshold, we have a ton of money coming off next season with potential in-house replacements (i.e. we're losing Eovaldi, but we have Paxton on the IL and the young pitchers to add to the rotation; we're losing JDM, but we should have Dalbec and Casas to fit into the 1B/3B/DH spots; we're losing JBJ, but we have Duran). Now is a good time to sink money into the roster.

The clearest need next offseason will be catching. So now might also be a great time to take on some dumb payroll to add a good catching prospect. I'd be pretty into a Wil Myers/Campusano package from SD.
 

azsoxpatsfan

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Not challenging you, genuinely curious about his underlying stats not supporting his final line. Can you provide some examples? What would a reasonable projection have been based upon those stats? From what I’ve read, scouts were as impressed with him as fans, so just curious how big a disconnect we’re talking about here. I have absolutely regarded him as untouchable.
His FIP, xFIP, and xERA were all 1-1.5 higher than his actual ERA. They were still great numbers, but it does indicate he was a bit lucky wrt results
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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Well, if we're done adding (hardly a certainty), I would hope that this signing means we're looking into extensions for Devers, Bogaerts (if he'd take something like Story's deal), and perhaps shorter extensions for guys like Kiké.

We're now over the threshold, we have a ton of money coming off next season with potential in-house replacements (i.e. we're losing Eovaldi, but we have Paxton on the IL and the young pitchers to add to the rotation; we're losing JDM, but we should have Dalbec and Casas to fit into the 1B/3B/DH spots; we're losing JBJ, but we have Duran). Now is a good time to sink money into the roster.

The clearest need next offseason will be catching.
Hernandez looks like at least a great part of a platoon. I’d be okay with Wong and him as a platoon. Not ideal but I suspect we’ll see some of Hernandez this season- I just hope when he struggles at 100 PA’s and some poor defense that it won’t be considered his ceiling.
 

koufax32

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Well, if we're done adding (hardly a certainty), I would hope that this signing means we're looking into extensions for Devers, Bogaerts (if he'd take something like Story's deal), and perhaps shorter extensions for guys like Kiké.

We're now over the threshold, we have a ton of money coming off next season with potential in-house replacements (i.e. we're losing Eovaldi, but we have Paxton on the IL and the young pitchers to add to the rotation; we're losing JDM, but we should have Dalbec and Casas to fit into the 1B/3B/DH spots; we're losing JBJ, but we have Duran). Now is a good time to sink money into the roster.

The clearest need next offseason will be catching. So now might also be a great time to take on some dumb payroll to add a good catching prospect. I'd be pretty into a Wil Myers/Campusano package from SD.
The Myers thing is fascinating to me. His salary isn’t that terrible and it’s just for this year with a team option for next. BA-wise, he doesn’t have big platoon splits, but his OBP is significantly higher vs. LHP’s. I could live with that for this year as a platoon/bench guy if it meant getting a CV replacement. I am skeptical though on what it would take to pry Campusano loose.


Note: If he’s traded, does his $13.8 AAV count for CBT purposes or his $20 for this year only?
 

BringBackMo

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His FIP, xFIP, and xERA were all 1-1.5 higher than his actual ERA. They were still great numbers, but it does indicate he was a bit lucky wrt results
Thanks for that. Considering his age, salary, performance, high-leverage usage as a rookie, and potential to start, he’s untouchable in my book.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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The Myers thing is fascinating to me. His salary isn’t that terrible and it’s just for this year with a team option for next. BA-wise, he doesn’t have big platoon splits, but his OBP is significantly higher vs. LHP’s. I could live with that for this year as a platoon/bench guy if it meant getting a CV replacement.


Note: If he’s traded, does his $13.8 AAV count for CBT purposes or his $20 for this year only?
AAV is AAV for the term of the contract, regardless of trades. So if the Sox (or anyone else) acquired him, he'd count for $13.8M against the CBT. The only possible change to that would be if cash were sent with him to off-set salary, in which case it would be the $13.8M less the cash payment.
 

azsoxpatsfan

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Thanks for that. Considering his age, salary, performance, high-leverage usage as a rookie, and potential to start, he’s untouchable in my book.
I agree. Stats that intend to capture “luck” are useful, but they don’t always exclusively measure luck (for example, certain players consistently have crazy high BABIP. It’s not just luck, it’s how they hit the ball), so who knows how much of Whitlocks performance was due to straight up luck and how much was his talent. Also, his FIP etc. were all still really good numbers. He’s not a guy you trade, imo
 

BaseballJones

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As of this moment, how would you guys rank the AL East?

1. Tor
2. TB
3. Bos
4. NY
5. Bal

Or is NY ahead of Bos? And is TB ahead of Tor?
 

Saints Rest

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Whitlock is completely legit from a stuff and command perspective — a top-30 or so arm in baseball according to some advanced metrics. The only question I can see is whether it holds over a starter’s workload. (There’s no particular reason to think it can’t; it just hasn’t yet.) If it does, he’s probably about as valuable as Shane McClanahan or Shane Baz. If it doesn’t, he’s a Chad Green or Jonathan Loaisiga.

His stuff and command is better than Houck’s. If the Sox FO internally doesn’t think Houck can make the leap to a full-time starter, it makes more sense to move him than it does Whitlock.
I keep hoping that about 3/4 of the way thru ST this spring, Whitlock gives Cora a 2007 Sping Training Papelbon-esque statement that he wants to give up on being a starter and just stay locked in as closer. And then proceeds to give us a run to compare with Papelbon ca 2007-2011.