One thing to keep in mind is that signing free agents is just one way to use your financial advantages. Looking at the Dodgers model again, Friedman spent a few years cutting payroll and improving the farm system. That approach helped him put the Dodgers in position to, first, trade for a superstar in the final year of his contract, and, second, have the financial flexibility required to sign that player to a huge new deal. Couldn't the Sox, after another season of strengthening the system, be in a similar position to acquire a player like, say, Juan Soto a year or so before he becomes a free agent? (Not saying Soto in particular--just using him as an example.) For the record, I would have been just fine with a Schwarber or Suzuki free agent signing if that's the direction the Sox had gone. But I think it's worth considering that the free agent pools of 2023 and 2024 may not be the only places Bloom is eyeing when it comes to impact acquisitions over the next year or two.
The Dodgers’ end-of-year payroll since Friedman took over:
2015: $298 million
2016: $252.5 million
2017: $253.6 million
2018: $195 million
2019: $204.9 million
2020: $107.9 million* ($204.6m)
2021: $285.6 million
2022: $277? (not including Freeman)
By the arc you’ve traced, we’re exactly where the Dodgers were when they traded for a superstar in the final year of his contract (Mookie). The Sox and Dodgers are valued at $3.46 and $3.57 billion respectively.
Barring something wild, 2022 would be our third consecutive year under the CBT — even though there’s absolutely no good reason we should be under the CBT tax this year. We’re poised to be
way under the CBT in ‘23-24 (of $233 million and $237 million). Looking at the players available in the next two free agent markets, I have no idea how we’re going to spend that money.
I’m definitely not saying we’re suddenly the Rays. But I don’t necessarily see that we’re on the same path as the Dodgers. My theory is less that Bloom is diligently exerting financial restraint and more that he’s realizing his free agent targets don’t want our money.
For example, we as fans know Noah Syndergaard signed with the Angels for 1/$21M despite an “aggressive offer” from the Sox, but we don’t know exactly what that offer was or why he didn’t take it. You could make a case that Freeman, Suzuki, Schwarber, Stroman, EdRod and McHugh all fall into this category too. Last year, Morton, Ozuna, Semien, Springer, Kluber did. Did the Sox get outbid in every one of these cases because the bids crept up a few million more than Bloom was comfortable? I don’t think we can assume that.
Last year, the restraint from spending made some sense. We wanted to stay under the CBT (again) for the new CBA. This year? It does not make sense.
The Dodgers are the Dodgers because a lot of people want to play and live in southern California — not as true for Boston. But if that’s the case, what’s the Plan B? Why hasn’t Devers even so much as received a contract extension? Why haven’t we gotten in on more of the salary dump trades besides JBJ?