Red Sox in season discussion
- Thread starter Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat
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I think it’s only insane if you remove the context of the Red Sox needing a SS. While I’ve heard some discussion of Coors somehow messing with the defensive metrics, and I’m not sure about Story’s grades anyway; I preferred Baez for this reason), I’m a bit more confident in the Sox’s internal metrics and analysis. Because of that and his age, I’d hope Story is possible to sign for a slightly shorter term than Baez, but I think the same plan could work, with Story starting out at 2B and serving as insurance if Bogarts walks.
Another option is to go all in on Correa. Of course it’s unlikely, but he’s a premium defensive SS with a great bat, and he’s literally the best available option. Of course with him I don’t love the injury history, likely cost, or participation in the banging scheme, but the Sox would be paying for more prime years than with any other option, which is what to look for when investing in a FA. It definitely makes things contentious with Bogarts, but if we accept that he’s not a viable SS anymore, then it does make sense to rip that particular bandaid off.
I think the most likely option is Chaim pulling a Igelsias-type out of his hat, but I’m not sure what FA option coming down the road the next few years (other than X and Devers) that would be worth spending on…
Because he can play shortstop?
I don't know a lot about Story's defense, so perhaps he's not much of an upgrade, but the infield defense was terrible this year and Xander was a big part of that. He's not at an age where he's going to get better either.
Maybe the brain trust has been talking to him about a position switch. Maybe they don't want to extend him. Maybe they don't think they CAN extend him.
I'm also a believe it when I see it kind of guy when it comes to actual deals, but I think there has been and will be interest in several big FAs. At the same time I think Bloom has certain formula that he's committed to with perhaps just a slight bit of flexibility. It's always wise to have a plan B and even a plan C when approaching these things, but I think in some instance Bloom has a plan D, E, and F in his back pocket. It's also my opinion that in most cases reports of the Sox being in on someone do not come from within the organisation. There's no way they actually telegraph anything unless it is purely a ploy to bid up another team, but honestly the agents do a good enough job of that via the Heymans of the world.
He's an elite defensive shortstop right now. He could get decently worse in 5 years and still be a decent player there. Bogaerts is already a bad defensive shortstop, if he gets decently worse in 5 years he's completely unplayable there.
I like the idea of Story on a one year deal (similar to the Semien deal with the Blue Jays). He can establish his market and it adds another shortstop to the free agent mix next offseason, which should help the Sox if Xander decides to leave.
Yeah, I agree with JA here. There is no way Story accepts a 1 year deal and there are no similarities to his situation and Semien's. Story's value is already established. Semien had his first season with an OPS+ over 100 in 2019, then followed that up with an 89 (0.3 bWAR) in 59 games in 2020. He needed to "re" establish his value in 2021 and it paid off big time.
There are still a number of teams that need a SS; Houston, maybe Seattle off the top of my head, and that will drive his price up.
Besides, signing story for 1 year doesn’t solve the problem that X can’t really play SS, and the that Sox need a better defender there, especially after X’s opt out.
Besides, signing story for 1 year doesn’t solve the problem that X can’t really play SS, and the that Sox need a better defender there, especially after X’s opt out.
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Story has nothing to prove and no market to establish. He's one of the best shortstops in the game. Someone will pay him nine figures. The only reason it hasn't already happened is because of the lockout. Even if we want to entertain the idea that he is only going to get a one-year deal for 2022, that's most likely going to come from Colorado since they alone wouldn't have to give up a draft pick to do it. Any other team giving up a pick will want more than a year from him.
Semien did the one year prove it deal with the Jays because he was terrible in 2020 (.223/.305/.374/.679, 89 OPS+) and had only one really good year under his belt. Story, on the other hand, was good (.251/.329/.471/.801, 103 OPS+) in 2021. Not as great as he's been, but still good.
Don't forget about the Yankees. There's no way in hell that Story is taking a one-year pillow contract. Maybe, just maybe he'd take one with a team like the Dodgers, a team that could be viewed as the leader in the clubhouse to win it all, but the Red Sox are not that team.
This is correct. I would add that, if the Red Sox aren't willing to commit to paying Xander Bogaerts on a long term deal as a shortstop next offseason, then they should sign Correa or Story to a market value contract now (more accurately, when they can according to the CBA). Because of the makeup of the free agency classes this year and next, Bloom is in the awkward position of having to decide on his long-term SS option now. Bogaerts is going to be on the roster next season whether he's that guy or not. He may even be the starting SS, with the heir apparent playing another position (this was more likely with a guy like Semien, and less likely with a guy like Correa or Story who are clearly better defensive shortstops than Xander is).
I'm agnostic about whether Bloom should just pay the bird-in-hand and live with his defensive deficiencies, or take some proactive steps to address the defense by moving away from Xander long term. But I do feel strongly that Bloom needs to make that decision this offseason, and that Bloom should be willing to pay market value for one of those three guys as his long-term SS.
Edit: I'm not trying to create a false tri-chotomy here; it's fine to think neither Correa nor Story are worth what they're going to get on the open market. I don't necessarily disagree, but if that's the case, I'd rather just pay X and be done with it than sign a stop gap guy who won't contribute much offensively with no long-term plan.
Good post. Story or Correa are great all-around players at a valuable defensive position, and who arguably have underrated bats. Either would be a welcome addition, and our surfeit of draft picks next year makes the signing easier. I think it’s as simple as that.
I’m assuming there’s some level of understanding between Bloom and X/Bogaerts about his future behind public knowledge. I read Xander’s comments about moving to 2B/3B as an extreme outlier for Boras clients entering free agency, who are typically instructed to maximize their negotiating power. This to me seems like a strong tell that he wants to stay, with some contract-fluffing, and would switch to 2B sooner rather than later. But who knows.
Story dealt with an elbow injury last year. He had a career low in homeruns, his second lowest batting average, and his second lowest on base percentage. He struggled defensively with his throws (career high in number of errors) and hit .203 on the road.
Those factors seem likely to impact his place in the shortstop market, right? I don't think anyone expects Story to get the same contract as Correa, even though he has put up similar career stats. I can imagine a scenario where Story gets offers closer to Baez than Seager. Does he sign an 8 year deal in the $200 million range or bet on himself to push that number up? If the latter, Story may choose to reestablish his value with a one year contract. I’m not saying it is likely, since it just takes one team to roll the dice, but it is certainly possible.
EDIT: Added a hypothetical contract.
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Everything you say is true until the last two sentences, there will be a strong market for him despite the issues.
FWIW, Story hit 24 home runs last year but would have hit 39 had he played all his games in Fenway, per Statcast. Kinda counterintuitive factoid for a Rockies player.
I maintain that the supposed interest in the available SS’s is in part to gather information on what these guys are looking for to better inform them regarding X, and in part to let Bogaerts know that they could potentially replace him now if they can’t extend him. The idea of signing Story or Correa and extending Bogaerts doesn’t seem realistic to me unless they are trading Devers.
Of course, this is all speculation but they’ve reportedly checked in on a lot of guys, it’s hard to know where the interest is really genuine or down with any kind of anticipation of actually getting a deal done. Of course, a lot of this could be embellished by agents trying to get other teams involved too. Or a combination of all of the above.
Of course, this is all speculation but they’ve reportedly checked in on a lot of guys, it’s hard to know where the interest is really genuine or down with any kind of anticipation of actually getting a deal done. Of course, a lot of this could be embellished by agents trying to get other teams involved too. Or a combination of all of the above.
If I had to place a bet, I'd agree with you, especially after seeing the massive contracts handed to Seager, Semien, and Baez, despite their flaws. That being said, I think there is a chance that Story believes he is better than all of those players (if healthy, he would be right) and will want to get the biggest or second biggest contract for a free agent shortstop this offseason. If that market doesn't materialize, he might bet on himself on a one year deal.
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OCD SS is right when he says below that the most likely scenario is Story takes the biggest deal with lots of opt outs. I think this changes if there are medical concerns about his elbow.
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I get that he isn't a great defender, but "can't really play SS" is absolutely not true. Are we letting this narrative spin out of control here? He's a bit below average and we would all love a gold glove SS, but it's hardly the case that his defense prevented the Sox from advancing to the World Series. It costs the team some runs here and there. In the meantime, he's the best offensive shortstop in the AL and is rated a 5-win player. The idea that he isn't perfect so let's start moving things around, making him uncomfortable, and basically running him out of town despite the fact that he's been an ideal Red Sock for 8 years is unacceptable to me. WE DON'T NEED A SHORTSTOP. If he sticks around long term and would move to 2B later, OK, but forcing a change now and putting his status as a franchise cornerstone in jeopardy is nuts.
Well said. While Bogaerts isn't the best SS in the world, he means enough to the franchise that there's no need to antagonize him by signing his replacement before he's out the door, if he's even inclined to actually go out the door.
I think I've said it before, but the lesson to be applied here is the one learned in 2004 with Nomar. Rather not see that repeated with Bogaerts.
I don’t get it, BOS moved Nomar at the perfect time. He had 41.3 bWAR in 4345 PAs for BOS and just 3 bWAR total after that in 1771 PAs. Emotion aside, that was perfect timing by Theo.
I agree with the point you're making regarding needlessly antagonizing Bogaerts, but the 2004 Nomar comparison cuts both ways, right? In his case, the defense of our aging franchise shortstop was the Achilles' heal on an otherwise championship-caliber roster. There's a lesson to be learned there as well.
Bloom needs to decide whether Xander Bogaerts at short for the next several years is tenable, or at least whether they're willing to pay him like a shortstop and keep him there in the near term. I'd be fine with it, but I don't think it's a given that his defense remains acceptable over the course of a long-term contract. Unfortunately, that's a decision that can't really be put off any longer (and I have to believe has already been discussed amongst the front office) given that the free agent options are, largely, available this year but not next. And if the front office is not a long term believer in X's defense at short, you have to at least entertain the idea of signing Correa or Story, whether it antagonizes Bogaerts or not.
The Nomar lesson is based on selling a guy when his body is in decline (or however you want to describe Nomar's trials and tribulations). Maybe there's a chicken/egg argument about Nomar becoming disenchanted after the near-trade before 2004, but that all seemed related to the injuries piling up.
This isn't applicable to Bogaerts, at least not until maybe a year from now if/when he opts out and wants a deal that pays him into his late 30s. Bogaerts does seem comfortable with an eventual position change, though. If the FO wants to move up that discussion with a replacement/extension offer, they can, but for now that's just a potential problem down the line. And IMO the guy has been so steady that you might consider paying him long term, just for his bat. His production and availability are incredibly reliable to this point. If the Sox want to keep him happy, which they should, then the discussion should be about an eventual position switch as part of a longer deal to stay.
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Sure, in hindsight it's easy to say they moved him at the right time. But at the time they were flirting with ARod and alienating a guy who was a franchise cornerstone, he was not viewed as in decline (he finished 7th in MVP balloting in 2003). He was a guy that was expected to stay in Boston long term.
Okay, so if next July, Bogaerts is injured and viewed as the Achilles heel on a championship caliber roster, they should absolutely trade him.
Exactly right. If the contract offers are more Baez than Lindor for Story, he'll take one and get a favorable opt out or three.
He'll protect himself from injury after the problems he had last season.
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The attempt to trade him in the winter before 2004 was awkward, to say the least. I'd say Nomar's situation was more volatile in that they had very contentious contract negotiations that broke off, and his production was down ~30 OPS+ points for three straight years from his early peak. But that only reinforces your point: if messing around at the position antagonizes a guy who was already on shaky ground, what would it do for Bogaerts who is signed(ish) and has done nothing but deliver for the team?
I’m assuming the Red Sox know what Bogaerts wants in an extension (if the two sides haven’t talked about it, it’s a bigger issue). Isn’t it only logical to talk to the FA SS, comparable players, and what they want as well? If Story wants far less or far more than Bogaerts, that’s info. I don’t see the harm in doing due diligence.
I was just about to post something similar. Very well said.
It's apparently become orthodoxy around here that the Red Sox are preparing to move on from Bogaerts as their shortstop. I see nothing to support this premise other than unsourced rumors about the club's supposed interest in free-market shortstops. The speculation ignores just how good Bogaerts is: fourth in WAR among qualifying SS last season, according to FanGraphs. It ALSO ignores the real-world implications of the Red Sox alienating/trading yet another franchise player.
WAR obviously has its limitations--it's a hatchet not a scalpel--but it can be a useful tool in evaluating players. Here are some 2021 shortstop WARs via Fangraphs
Tatis 6.1
Correa 5.8
Bogaerts 5.5
Bichette 4.9
Anderson 4.3
Seager (only 409 PAs) 3.7
Story 3.5
There’s no doubt he was great last year, but he has only one year left on his deal. So you need to project his performance out over the course of the next deal, and balance it against the teams other obligations and assets. No one is saying they want to get rid of Bogaerts (or Hernandez, Eovaldi, Sale, Devers, etc). To keep the entire tens intact as they all hit FA / arb / etc just isn’t realistic though.
It has been previously reported that he was willing to move to 2nd or 3rd and that the Sox were considering a move for defensive purposes.
For example
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.boston.com/sports/boston-red-sox/2021/10/26/xander-bogaerts-opt-out-2022/?amp=1
I dont get why we’re projecting that the Bogaerts situation is similar to Nomar’s.
It was reported six weeks ago — from what I can only assume is via the Boras team — that Bogaerts “plans on opting out of the contract after 2022, but hopes to remain in Boston and finish his career with the Red Sox [and is] also open to moving to second or third base down the road.”
It makes no financial sense for X to say something like this this offseason if the idea weren’t immediately in play as a possibility. Nobody from X’s camp has disputed this (afaik), and we should assume that Boras very quickly and loudly would dispute it if it weren’t accurate.
If a guy talks about the idea a year before he hits the market and has to talk about it, then he’s not disgruntled by the idea! He’s not going to outright say he’s moving to 2B right now, because then it looks like the Sox need to acquire a shortstop.
It was reported six weeks ago — from what I can only assume is via the Boras team — that Bogaerts “plans on opting out of the contract after 2022, but hopes to remain in Boston and finish his career with the Red Sox [and is] also open to moving to second or third base down the road.”
It makes no financial sense for X to say something like this this offseason if the idea weren’t immediately in play as a possibility. Nobody from X’s camp has disputed this (afaik), and we should assume that Boras very quickly and loudly would dispute it if it weren’t accurate.
If a guy talks about the idea a year before he hits the market and has to talk about it, then he’s not disgruntled by the idea! He’s not going to outright say he’s moving to 2B right now, because then it looks like the Sox need to acquire a shortstop.
Nomar also hurt himself pretty badly in 2001 and wasn't the same player that he was from 1998-2000, when he was an absolute beast. Add in that his attitude wasn't the greatest and this is an apples and orangutan comparison. Bogaerts is still producing as well as he ever had and his attitude is stellar.
What that story doesn't mention (but the story they're quoting from by Joon Lee does) is that Bogaerts is reported to have said he's willing to change positions down the road which does not in any way suggest that he's ready to do it right now. Just because Alex Speier and others are jumping to that conclusion doesn't make it so.
I wouldn’t read too much into a comment (especially one that’s not even a quote) that he’s willing to move positions in the future, that’s hardly a unique position for a player to make, especially if he wants to make sure his market is as big as possible. I’m sure he’s willing to play for the Rockies or Orioles, too, under the right conditions.
My point in bringing up Nomar is that his attitude not being the greatest in 2004 was very much attributable to the team's attempts to ship him out of town in favor of ARod. I don't recall any stories of his poor attitude (other than his occasional dust-ups with the assholes in the local media) until the ARod stuff went down.
On the other hand if they were signing Story or Correa and moving X to 3B, they'd get an absolute mint for Devers. But I'd say that moving Bogaerts to 2B would be the way to go.
Not sure that qualifies as the Sox are actively considering this. Bogaerts says "down the line." Devers' defensive situation might be more of an active issue, although Cora's statement sounded more like saying that they can live with his defense at third because his offense is silver slugger level. It's entirely possible he meant the same about Bogaerts.
Agree! IMO this statement from Camp Boras (or wherever) sounded like it could do a couple things: 1) leverage his position now, coming off another strong season, so that everyone is reminded of his value while teams are blasting the money cannons at shortstops; and 2) provide a bit of comfort to the Sox, who may not love the message but who at least now have some certainty that they can start planning around, including maybe approaching X about a new deal.
Could all of this prompt them to buy a new shortstop? The chances aren't zero, but it feels like a panic move of the type that Bloom isn't known for. Even if he walks, there is always next winter's SS market (Turner? Swanson?) or maybe Downs or who knows what else. Given the tendency of agents to leak transparent nonsense about how "free agent __ has received interest from Boston, NY and LA" every couple days, I suspect this is all just a fun thought exercise and not something the Sox will move on.
I get that. And I think that they did Nomar (and Manny) a little dirty during the 03 offseason. But Manny got over it and Nomar didn't which is one of the reasons why Nomar was sent out of town.
Story's best offensive season was a step down from Devers' age-22 season. [I am all the way out on Story unless he wants a short-term deal to play second base, which I am pretty sure he does not.]
Small nitpick, but no one is quoted to have said down the road. That’s Joon Lee summarizing from on-background comments. It’s likely left purposely ambiguous on the part of the reporter, not a statement of intention from Bogaerts/Boras.
Okay, so if Lee is being purposely ambiguous and it's not a statement of intention from Bogaerts, what are we talking about here?
Bogaerts is as likely to take what we can call the Jeter route (staying at SS until he retires no matter the alternatives or the effect on the team) as he is to actually change positions for the good of the team.
A side note to the Nomar story is that he was offered a new deal (extension I think) of 60 M for 4 years in 2003 which he and his agent refused. It's neither here nor there when it comes to Bogaerts, but does add a bit more detail to the Nomar saga.
But are they really going to pony up for extensions to Bogaerts, Devers, and sign Story/Correa? Especially when three of their top ten prospects are Mayer, Jordan, and Yorke? Maybe one of the three, IMO.
This is just a way of saying Story's best offensive season was slightly worse than Devers best offensive season. Most of that is attributed to park factors I imagine, considering Story had a .917 OPS/120 OPS+ while Devers had a .916 OPS/132 OPS+. I don't really want to sign Story either but Story has a great track record as a hitter and is generally a useful defensive player.
It is broadly a statement of intention, but my point is that we can’t parse the phrase “down the road” to mean “much later” or “after the next contract.” We don’t know exactly what X/Boras said. The sentiment is accurate and the reporter intentionally put it in general, ambiguous terms. It just means at some point.
Unless you know something I don’t, I’m not sure how you infer that he’s likely to stay at SS until retirement. If he were hardline about that, or wanted to pretend to be for the sake of his next contract, he sacrificed a lot of leverage by saying otherwise.
I doubt the Sox are really doing anything more than kicking the tires on Story, but there's nothing in the Bogaerts report that doesn't make perfect sense & isn't totally believable.
If the way X can maximize his value is to include positional flexibility, why not do that? If his stance is I'm a shortstop I only play shortstop, when I die bury me at shortstop, that significantly lowers his value with any team that values defense, is rich enough to pay lots of $ for multiple top end SS, and/or has a SS in the pipeline (e.g. Mayer).
If a team wants X to play SS for the next 10 years & values him more to do that than other teams do to have him with some expected flexibility, that's fine, too, but it's unlikely to be the case.
Yes, this keeps getting brought up. That piece you posted is simply a rehash of what was reported in this ESPN story. Here is the actual wording from that piece, as written by the reporter who talked to his source:
"According to sources close to Bogaerts, the shortstop currently plans on opting out of the contract after 2022, but hopes to remain in Boston and finish his career with the Red Sox. The three-time All-Star shortstop is also open to moving to second or third base down the road."
Somehow this has been transformed at SOSH into, the Sox are moving him off short for 2022. Maybe they will, but I highly doubt it. I don't see him going along with it--he wants to be paid in free agency as a shortstop--and I think he's going to have a lot of leverage. Down the line? Different story. As chisfont9 wrote, and I seconded: "If he sticks around long term and would move to 2B later, OK, but forcing a change now and putting his status as a franchise cornerstone in jeopardy is nuts."
In any case, I'm not sure how any of this invalidates the notion that it's far fetched to think that the Sox will attempt to trade Bogaerts or push him off short this off-season.
EDIT: Looks like 26 people wrote pretty much the same thing. Apologies, as I did not intend to pile on.
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