Red Sox in season discussion

Bread of Yaz

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Mar 12, 2019
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I am not sure how you identify this kind of thing. Did Cashman recognize that Gallo was going to dry up? Did the Dodgers see Muncy's useless bat coming? And if Bloom did see that coming, what could he have done about? Traded JD and Xander in the offseason?
His SLG was 493 last year but his xSLG was just 468. Hard hit % went from 38.8% in 2020 to 36.2 in 2021, and this year is down to 32.1. So there seem to have been some signs there
 

bosox188

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I am not sure how you identify this kind of thing. Did Cashman recognize that Gallo was going to dry up? Did the Dodgers see Muncy's useless bat coming? And if Bloom did see that coming, what could he have done about? Traded JD and Xander in the offseason?
Not that it's an excuse, but it does help to keep some perspective: I think Muncy is a good example that even premier organizations can do some dumb shit. He was coming off a torn UCL from late last season, and it's clearly bothered him. Yet the Dodgers have been playing him at 3B for the majority of his games, which you'd think would be quite stressful on a UCL. We'd be up in arms over that.

But that's an aside from the larger point that no GM can reasonably go into a season expecting that some of their best hitters will have a large dropoff in production (though I agree with the sentiment that Bogaerts hasn't had any large dropoff overall, despite the reduced ISO).
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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Also worth noting that Story didn’t hit much at all either. He’s still second on the time in RBI but his slugging was 90 points below his career average. He also slugged under 400 against righties and below 350 on the road. EV, Hard Hit, and LD % were the lowest of his career.
 

Lose Remerswaal

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His SLG was 493 last year but his xSLG was just 468. Hard hit % went from 38.8% in 2020 to 36.2 in 2021, and this year is down to 32.1. So there seem to have been some signs there
OK, if that is definitive the question still stands: What should Bloom have done with JD and Xander? Traded them with the accompanying outcry by the faithful? Cut them?
 

Cesar Crespo

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Also worth noting that Story didn’t hit much at all either. He’s still second on the time in RBI but his slugging was 90 points below his career average. He also slugged under 400 against righties and below 350 on the road. EV, Hard Hit, and LD % were the lowest of his career.
How much of that is playing 81 games at Coors? Story's ISO is .202. For his career it's .246.

Home: .297
Road: .194

As far as power goes, he's in line with other seasons if you adjust for Coors. The dip in slugging this year is caused by a huge drop in batting average rather than a drop in actual power.
 

Bread of Yaz

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Mar 12, 2019
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OK, if that is definitive the question still stands: What should Bloom have done with JD and Xander? Traded them with the accompanying outcry by the faithful? Cut them?
Its not a perfect analogy but the Pats are lauded because they have in some senses hewed to the notion that its far better to trade a player one year early than one year late. The Red Sox face the prospect of losing both and getting nothing in return. Yes, another option would have been to trade both before this year when they could have gotten something for them, explaining to the fanbase that they were restocking for the future. As this stand now, the team next year is full of question marks and holes, as is being discussed in a separate thread.

And I do understand that the Patriots decades of success creates a reservoir of good will and "in BB we trust" that is, perhaps, unique in sports. Yet Atlanta parted ways with Albert Pujols and now more recently with Freeman, so perhaps it can be done without losing fan support
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Its not a perfect analogy but the Pats are lauded because they have in some senses hewed to the notion that its far better to trade a player one year early than one year late. The Red Sox face the prospect of losing both and getting nothing in return. Yes, another option would have been to trade both before this year when they could have gotten something for them, explaining to the fanbase that they were restocking for the future. As this stand now, the team next year is full of question marks and holes, as is being discussed in a separate thread.

And I do understand that the Patriots decades of success creates a reservoir of good will and "in BB we trust" that is, perhaps, unique in sports. Yet Atlanta parted ways with Albert Pujols and now more recently with Freeman, so perhaps it can be done without losing fan support
After the uproar over the Betts trade, you really think trading two of their three middle of the order hitters during the winter after a run to the ALCS was going to go over well with the fanbase? There is a definite difference in how the fanbase reacts when you're talking about a trade "a year early" as opposed to a free agent leaving (like Pujols leaving St Louis or Freeman leaving Atlanta). Much easier for a Cardinal fan to look at Pujols signing a decade long deal with the Angels and being okay with letting him go, as opposed to trading a JD Martinez who's only on the hook for 1/20M.

And all I can say to the Patriots comparison is that the economics of player contracts in the NFL make it way easier to part with players a year early (particularly when the team isn't potentially still on the hook for the remainder of the contract).
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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There’s no comparison between football players that appear in masked helmets for 16 games and baseball players you see for 162 games with their faces right there to see.
Again- casual fan… I know who the QB is… maybe a WR or a RB. That’s it. And often times I can’t tell the difference when it’s a different RB or QB on the game
 

A Bad Man

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Not sure if this was posted elsewhere, but some positive injury news:


Edit: Strahm also throwing a bullpen today
 

Yelling At Clouds

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Oh goodie. A low character guy!
I was thinking about this. I know that the FO is not a one-man show, but does the current group consider character issues? The last week alone saw Bloom bringing in three players with what can be euphemistically referred to as “baggage.” I’m sure you all can think of some more examples, too. Do they think about these things? Should they?
 

Mueller's Twin Grannies

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I was thinking about this. I know that the FO is not a one-man show, but does the current group consider character issues? The last week alone saw Bloom bringing in three players with what can be euphemistically referred to as “baggage.” I’m sure you all can think of some more examples, too. Do they think about these things? Should they?
Perhaps Bloom only looks at numbers and value. At the very least, his moves to this point are suggestive of that.
 

cantor44

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OK, if that is definitive the question still stands: What should Bloom have done with JD and Xander? Traded them with the accompanying outcry by the faithful? Cut them?
Yes, he should have traded JD, and Eovaldi, and whoever else is a pending FA*, aside from Xander. You keep Xander because he is too central to the organization, and you take one more shot at keeping him without breaking the bank. The follow up question is what did Bloom do, exactly? I thought this phase was all about building up the farm.

*I know it takes two to tango; but I'm hard pressed to believe there weren't any takers on the more capable guys.
 

soxhop411

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Yes, he should have traded JD, and Eovaldi, and whoever else is a pending FA*, aside from Xander. You keep Xander because he is too central to the organization, and you take one more shot at keeping him without breaking the bank. The follow up question is what did Bloom do, exactly? I thought this phase was all about building up the farm.

*I know it takes two to tango; but I'm hard pressed to believe there weren't any takers on the more capable guys.
View: https://twitter.com/IanMBrowne/status/1557175722959052803

Its pretty obvious why nobody wanted JDM
 

scottyno

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Yes, he should have traded JD, and Eovaldi, and whoever else is a pending FA*, aside from Xander. You keep Xander because he is too central to the organization, and you take one more shot at keeping him without breaking the bank. The follow up question is what did Bloom do, exactly? I thought this phase was all about building up the farm.

*I know it takes two to tango; but I'm hard pressed to believe there weren't any takers on the more capable guys.
He added 4 more prospects, 2 useful major leaguers going forward making no money, and 1 potentially useful major leaguer going forward making small money, and really the only thing of future "value" he gave up was Diekman's 2023 contract which they probably didn't want anyway. All of that combined makes the future red sox better, potentially much better.
 

Marciano490

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I was thinking about this. I know that the FO is not a one-man show, but does the current group consider character issues? The last week alone saw Bloom bringing in three players with what can be euphemistically referred to as “baggage.” I’m sure you all can think of some more examples, too. Do they think about these things? Should they?
This is a bit of a different level. I know charges were dropped, but his wife had a scratch and a bruise and there were knives scattered on the floor when police arrive. I don’t care if Manny and others juiced, but the last time I recall any Sox linked to a DV charge was Wilfredo Cordero being cut. Maybe there were others, but this is super disappointing. Especially in a lost season for a no longer any good player. What an odd message to send to a fan base that I’d like to think cares more about some standard of decency than wins.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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So the reporting that the Sox were asking for major league players and prospects in return isn’t true, and in fact, nobody wanted him? Has that been reported?

I suspect the Sox wanted to present the illusion of contending and held our hope that maybe it would work, and also if JD hit a bit they’d have the QO in their back pocket.

I also think there may have been a reluctance to totally gut the roster due to the lack of in house replacements to finish out the season. Nobody wants a 2012 style final month or two, although it might happen anyways.
 
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nvalvo

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This is a bit of a different level. I know charges were dropped, but his wife had a scratch and a bruise and there were knives scattered on the floor when police arrive. I don’t care if Manny and others juiced, but the last time I recall any Sox linked to a DV charge was Wilfredo Cordero being cut. Maybe there were others, but this is super disappointing. Especially in a lost season for a no longer any good player. What an odd message to send to a fan base that I’d like to think cares more about some standard of decency than wins.
Julio Lugo. Steven Wright. Probably some more.
 

Lose Remerswaal

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Yes, he should have traded JD, and Eovaldi, and whoever else is a pending FA*, aside from Xander. You keep Xander because he is too central to the organization, and you take one more shot at keeping him without breaking the bank. The follow up question is what did Bloom do, exactly? I thought this phase was all about building up the farm.

*I know it takes two to tango; but I'm hard pressed to believe there weren't any takers on the more capable guys.
The discussion was about last offseason, I was replying to a “Bloom didn’t improve the team before the season “ The other poster thought Bloom should have known JD was going to have a bad year. post. You’d have done this before they played a game after making the ALCS?
 

amfox1

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OK, if that is definitive the question still stands: What should Bloom have done with JD and Xander? Traded them with the accompanying outcry by the faithful? Cut them?
Yes, he should have traded JD, and Eovaldi, and whoever else is a pending FA*, aside from Xander. You keep Xander because he is too central to the organization, and you take one more shot at keeping him without breaking the bank. The follow up question is what did Bloom do, exactly? I thought this phase was all about building up the farm.

*I know it takes two to tango; but I'm hard pressed to believe there weren't any takers on the more capable guys.
If you read this site before the trade deadline, most posters thought BOS should be buyers, not sellers, as the team was within range of a wild card spot. Some posters even went so far as to threaten not to follow the team if they traded Xander or Devers.

I thought (at the time, not hindsight) the team should get below the luxury tax threshold, either by trading JDM and/or Nate and CVaz and even considering trading X if the package was sufficient. They traded CVaz for a couple of upper level interesting B prospects, dumped Diekman for McGuire and picked up Pham and Hosmer and a couple of C+ prospects. All of that was fine, but Bloom couldn't close the deal on getting below the luxury tax threshold because he wouldn't/couldn't trade JDM and/or Nate. Bloom's inability to do so, will cost the Red Sox in draft pick compensation in the event that X leaves or they sign a player subject to a QO. It also costs the team money by being over the tax threshold.

So, the question is why did he ask for a higher price on JDM than teams were willing to give? By doing so, he likely drove the Mets away from a bigger deal. Maybe JDM had no market since his bat had grown so cold. I cannot imagine that there was no market for Nate. I think Bloom made the wrong strategic decision by not getting under the threshold.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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Would it have been a bad move to deal Eo and/or JDM and sweeten it with a guy like Winkleman to get a better prospect?
Asking- not insinuating.
 

LogansDad

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So, the question is why did he ask for a higher price on JDM than teams were willing to give? By doing so, he likely drove the Mets away from a bigger deal. Maybe JDM had no market since his bat had grown so cold. I cannot imagine that there was no market for Nate. I think Bloom made the wrong strategic decision by not getting under the threshold.
I will be honest, I'm willing to bet that nobody wanted them, let alone wanted to pay a high price for them.

JD has been bad since May, and atrocious since the start of July with a .599 OPS for the month of July, and has somehow only gotten worse since the trade deadline.

Eovaldi came back from his injury and has lost more than a couple MPH on his fastball, which is really bad for a guy who pitches like him (yes, he throws a ton of different pitches, but a lot of their effectiveness relies on his fastball being an outlier).

The Sox probably would have had to add a prospect just to get them off the roster. Other teams have a say in trades, too, and if their answer is "No", then there isn't a whole lot Bloom can do about it.
 

RobertS975

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Looking carefully, the Sox were buyers or more accurately, acquirers ...trading for Pham and essentially picking up Hosmer for almost nothing. But all those things happened or were announced AFTER Vaz was traded. Trading your starting catcher and one of your better hitters for players that are not ready to help you this year is NOT something a buyer does. After a week, I still cannot see the logic of what transpired!
 

YTF

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Looking carefully, the Sox were buyers or more accurately, acquirers ...trading for Pham and essentially picking up Hosmer for almost nothing. But all those things happened or were announced AFTER Vaz was traded. Trading your starting catcher and one of your better hitters for players that are not ready to help you this year is NOT something a buyer does. After a week, I still cannot see the logic of what transpired!
Look at the overall health status of the rest of the team. Hard to GFIN when there are so many question marks with the current roster. And that doesn't include the under performing of guys who were healthy and playing. Bradley, Duran, Franchy, Dalbec, etc...
 

dynomite

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I cant recall the last time we have had this many injuries in one season
I agree. Personally 2006 always stands out as the year the Sox just couldn't catch a break and injuries destroyed the season. On August 16th the Sox were 69-50, 1.5 games behind the Yankees with the 4th best record in the AL. But Varitek, Manny, Coco, Papelbon, Lester, Clement, and Foulke all missed significant time throughout the season, and it felt like it culminated in the 5 game sweep by the Yankees at Fenway in late August. They finished 17-26 and missed the playoffs.

Tried to look this up for some context, according to one measure by Sportrac: https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/disabled-list/cumulative-team/

Obviously this is a pretty blunt tool -- it's hard to account for the quality of the players on IL (Arroyo missing time isn't the same as Chris Sale missing time, etc.). The way they try to account for that is by "salary accrued on IL."

So the Sox are 7th in total "days missed by players on IL" in 2022 at 1,271, but 1st in MLB in "money spent on IL players" at $47M. If you click on the numbers it shows you who counts and why (NB they seem to have an error -- Strahm is listed as having been on the IL for 300+ days which isn't correct).

For context, the list only goes back to 2015, but in those years here's where the Sox ranked by "days missed by players on IL":

2021: 29th
2020: 12th
2019: 7th
2018: 11th
2017: 5th
2016: 10th
2015: 15th
 
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Captaincoop

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I agree. Personally 2006 always stands out as the year the Sox just couldn't catch a break and injuries destroyed the season. On August 16th the Sox were 69-50, 1.5 games behind the Yankees with the 4th best record in the AL. But Varitek, Manny, Coco, Papelbon, Lester, Clement, and Foulke all missed significant time, and it culminated in the 5 game sweep by the Yankees at Fenway in late August. They finished 17-26 and missed the playoffs.

Tried to look this up for some context, according to one measure by Sportrac: https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/disabled-list/cumulative-team/

Obviously this is a pretty blunt tool -- it's hard to account for the quality of the players on IL (Arroyo missing time isn't the same as Chris Sale missing time, etc.). The way they try to account for that is by "salary accrued on IL."

So the Sox are 7th in total "days missed by players on IL" in 2022 at 1,271, but 1st in MLB in "money spent on IL players" at $47M. If you click on the numbers it shows you who counts and why (NB they seem to have an error -- Strahm is listed as having been on the IL for 300+ days which isn't correct).

For context, the list only goes back to 2015, but in those years here's where the Sox ranked by "days missed by players on IL":

2021: 29th
2020: 12th
2019: 7th
2018: 11th
2017: 5th
2016: 10th
2015: 15th
Almost half of that money spent on IL players is Chris Sale. Who should always be expected to be on that list.

Anyway, in 2006 the team was good save for the injuries, as evidenced by that August 16 record cited above. When were the 2022 Red Sox good?
 

Philip Jeff Frye

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I agree. Personally 2006 always stands out as the year the Sox just couldn't catch a break and injuries destroyed the season. On August 16th the Sox were 69-50, 1.5 games behind the Yankees with the 4th best record in the AL. But Varitek, Manny, Coco, Papelbon, Lester, Clement, and Foulke all missed significant time throughout the season, and it felt like it culminated in the 5 game sweep by the Yankees at Fenway in late August. They finished 17-26 and missed the playoffs.

Tried to look this up for some context, according to one measure by Sportrac: https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/disabled-list/cumulative-team/

Obviously this is a pretty blunt tool -- it's hard to account for the quality of the players on IL (Arroyo missing time isn't the same as Chris Sale missing time, etc.). The way they try to account for that is by "salary accrued on IL."

So the Sox are 7th in total "days missed by players on IL" in 2022 at 1,271, but 1st in MLB in "money spent on IL players" at $47M. If you click on the numbers it shows you who counts and why (NB they seem to have an error -- Strahm is listed as having been on the IL for 300+ days which isn't correct).

For context, the list only goes back to 2015, but in those years here's where the Sox ranked by "days missed by players on IL":

2021: 29th
2020: 12th
2019: 7th
2018: 11th
2017: 5th
2016: 10th
2015: 15th
So if Bloom is supposed to get a pass on this year's major league team because of the bad luck of all the injuries, does ranking 29th last year mean that the credit he gets for having a better-than-expected result to the season should be reduced a bit?
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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Almost half of that money spent on IL players is Chris Sale. Who should always be expected to be on that list.

Anyway, in 2006 the team was good save for the injuries, as evidenced by that August 16 record cited above. When were the 2022 Red Sox good?
Come on.... they were not just good but great for a 5 week stretch. I know... strength of schedule, but good teams beat bad teams and they did that, along with beating teams that are currently deep in the WC hunt. They were all relatively healthy (Sale being the only one out) and about to get their ace pitcher back into the mix.
Were they as good as their record then? Probably not... but if the team was able to play at that level with that crew still healthy, a 7 game playoff against the MFY's or Houston could have gone either way. Shit hit the fan... injuries and then slumps (maybe permanent) and the weak underbelly (RF and 1B) was exposed when the key offense slumps. Replacement pitchers did admirable but not enough. Lack of depth in the bullpen.
But during that stretch if they played any team I would have had confidence in them winning a 4/7
 

Captaincoop

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Come on.... they were not just good but great for a 5 week stretch. I know... strength of schedule, but good teams beat bad teams and they did that, along with beating teams that are currently deep in the WC hunt. They were all relatively healthy (Sale being the only one out) and about to get their ace pitcher back into the mix.
Were they as good as their record then? Probably not... but if the team was able to play at that level with that crew still healthy, a 7 game playoff against the MFY's or Houston could have gone either way. Shit hit the fan... injuries and then slumps (maybe permanent) and the weak underbelly (RF and 1B) was exposed when the key offense slumps. Replacement pitchers did admirable but not enough. Lack of depth in the bullpen.
But during that stretch if they played any team I would have had confidence in them winning a 4/7
They looked good for a month, playing, what, 4 series against the three worst teams in the league during that stretch?

To me, they don't look like a contender that was snake-bitten by injuries. They look like a mediocre and flawed team that was snake-bitten by injuries and became a last-place team. Even when healthy they were not much of a threat to do anything in the postseason.
 

YTF

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They looked good for a month, playing, what, 4 series against the three worst teams in the league during that stretch?

To me, they don't look like a contender that was snake-bitten by injuries. They look like a mediocre and flawed team that was snake-bitten by injuries and became a last-place team. Even when healthy they were not much of a threat to do anything in the postseason.
Serious question...can't you be both? There are currently teams that many of us would consider to be mediocre and flawed, yet are still in contention. We've seen it every year since the playoffs have been expanded and the current playoff format has added to that.
 

Captaincoop

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Serious question...can't you be both? There are currently teams that many of us would consider to be mediocre and flawed, yet are still in contention. We've seen it every year since the playoffs have been expanded and the current playoff format has added to that.
They came into the season projected to win 85-86 games. Can a team like that technically get into the playoffs and then get hot? Sure. But should you expect a team like that to contend for a title?
 

Mueller's Twin Grannies

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I still find it VERY hard to believe that JDM had no market at any price. He probably had no market at the price Boston was asking. And maybe they felt they had to ask for that price for it to be worth it to the team, but if letting him go for a song would have allowed them to get under the threshold, it shouldn't have been a second thought. They'd already traded the starting catcher, arguably the heart of any team, so I don't think trading an OF/DH that's only been there for 3.5 seasons would have done much more damage to morale, if the Vaz trade even did.

I get not moving Eovaldi for nothing, but JDM seemed and seems like an unnecessary piece for this team moving forward. They you Hosmer for basically nothing, so they could afford to lose JD at the same price.
 

Cesar Crespo

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I still find it VERY hard to believe that JDM had no market at any price. He probably had no market at the price Boston was asking. And maybe they felt they had to ask for that price for it to be worth it to the team, but if letting him go for a song would have allowed them to get under the threshold, it shouldn't have been a second thought. They'd already traded the starting catcher, arguably the heart of any team, so I don't think trading an OF/DH that's only been there for 3.5 seasons would have done much more damage to morale, if the Vaz trade even did.

I get not moving Eovaldi for nothing, but JDM seemed and seems like an unnecessary piece for this team moving forward. They you Hosmer for basically nothing, so they could afford to lose JD at the same price.
Assuming they didn't have to pay some of/all of his contract to dump him for a suspect. They gave us Hosmer for basically nothing and paid the entire salary. What makes you think the Sox wouldn't have to pay JD's salary in any deal?

Sox aren't paying for all of Pham either, are they?