Red Sox in season discussion

Cesar Crespo

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Setting aside the winter league innings, it's not an unreasonable jump to go from 95 innings in one season to 120-130. If he averages 5 per start for the remainder of the season, assuming at least 10 starts, that would probably bring him close to if not over 130 innings. Assuming he's not showing signs of fatigue or injury, I see no need to shut him down at any point. If he gets to 140 or more, so be it.
My number was 130 too, I just didn't want to influence an answer. That seems right to me. And if they make the playoffs and he's one of your best starters, role with it.

Glad I'm not the only one who has no idea what to do with the winter league innings. He's also 26 so I think that should factor in some.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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2) JD being offered a QO and declining = Sox get a compensation pick. As they're over the lux tax threshold, that's a 4th/5th round pick.

* * * *

5) The value of whatever prospects whatever team was going to give up for JD.
Draft slot for 5/1 last year was $426,600: https://www.sportingnews.com/us/mlb/news/mlb-draft-slot-values-money-2022/ocmzq7kl6b204bgaa2aix6oa. I would assume that Bloom and his staff has pretty good value on draft slot money as it seems to me, having an extra $400K to play with could really help the Red Sox go overslot with another player such that the player the Red Sox are signing overslot is way better than the person actually taken with the comp pick or the prospects that were offered.

And if JD accepts, I suspect Bloom believes there's a decent chance the Red Sox will get surplus value from JD. Hopefully they will.
 

Rovin Romine

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Draft slot for 5/1 last year was $426,600: https://www.sportingnews.com/us/mlb/news/mlb-draft-slot-values-money-2022/ocmzq7kl6b204bgaa2aix6oa. I would assume that Bloom and his staff has pretty good value on draft slot money as it seems to me, having an extra $400K to play with could really help the Red Sox go overslot with another player such that the player the Red Sox are signing overslot is way better than the person actually taken with the comp pick or the prospects that were offered.

And if JD accepts, I suspect Bloom believes there's a decent chance the Red Sox will get surplus value from JD. Hopefully they will.
That's part of what I was suggesting when I said the comp pick may have an internal value to the club (beyond the pick itself.) And of course, there's no guarantee they get that pick by merely not trading JD, because JD would have to be offered the QO and decline.

But as I said, I really think they think they're in this, and JD's value to the 2022 run was a very significant factor in valuing any return.
 

chawson

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I think I had no idea JDM wanted to be here as much as he did until I read this trade deadline coverage. I’d have no problem giving him another year at 1/$20M or so. He gets beat on tough sliders but he’s mostly still elite.

As for his decline, I’m not sure it’s imminent. It looks like he adjusted his swing to hit more line drives when the ball wasn’t carrying in April and May. He had the second highest line drive rate in baseball over those two months, much higher than his usual rates. That seemed like a smart move with the dead ball, but maybe it’s been tough to switch back?
 

E5 Yaz

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I still don't have a complete handle on the trade rules. I know there's no longer any of the pre Sept 1 waiver deals that we used to see. But, say when people start coming back, the Red Sox decide to DFA a player ... what's the process there?
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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I still don't have a complete handle on the trade rules. I know there's no longer any of the pre Sept 1 waiver deals that we used to see. But, say when people start coming back, the Red Sox decide to DFA a player ... what's the process there?
That player won’t be eligible for the postseason by the new org they join; like Iglesias last year.
 

E5 Yaz

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That player won’t be eligible for the postseason by the new org they join; like Iglesias last year.
That's not the part that confuses me, though. If you DFA a player, does he still go through waivers? And if he's claimed, do you just get him unless the team pulls him back ... at which point, why DFA him in the first place?
 

RobertS975

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Learn about Qualifying Offers and think about it a bit. It's been mentioned many times in various threads here today.

Martinez and Eovaldi will likely be offered QOs this offseason, if they stay healthy and don't suck too much the rest of this season. Vazquez was not going to be offered one no matter what. So they took the best offer they could get for Vaz and didn't move Eovaldi or JD because there's probably more value from keeping them and offering the QO than trading them today for whatever they were offered. It might work out or it might not. But that is the reason why they did what they did.
So what's the plan for a starting catcher in the future?
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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That player won’t be eligible for the postseason by the new org they join; like Iglesias last year.
Not 100% true. The rule of post-season eligibility remains that the player has to be in the organization before September 1. If the Red Sox have to DFA someone to clear roster space, they can only release him or outright him to the minor leagues. If another team picks that player up, he can be eligible for their post-season roster if it's before September 1.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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That's not the part that confuses me, though. If you DFA a player, does he still go through waivers? And if he's claimed, do you just get him unless the team pulls him back ... at which point, why DFA him in the first place?
I believe players can be placed and claimed on waivers, there just aren’t any trades.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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That's not the part that confuses me, though. If you DFA a player, does he still go through waivers? And if he's claimed, do you just get him unless the team pulls him back ... at which point, why DFA him in the first place?
I could be wrong, but I don't believe waivers in the case of a DFA are necessarily revokable. In other words, the player can't be "pulled back" if he's claimed in such a case. Teams who DFA a player are trying to get rid of him, not test the market like they would with trade waivers.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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Got it. If the Red Sox waived JBJ tomorrow, he could clear waivers and be signed by the Braves and be eligible for their postseason roster. They could not trade him to the Braves. If he’s claimed (as if), he would join that team. If any of this happens after August 31, he’d be ineligible for the postseason. Is that correct?
 

E5 Yaz

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I could be wrong, but I don't believe waivers in the case of a DFA are necessarily revokable. In other words, the player can't be "pulled back" if he's claimed in such a case.
Yeah, t's a weird gray area. Iglesias signed as a free agent after being released by the Angels, which I guess means no one claimed him.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Got it. If the Red Sox waived JBJ tomorrow, he could clear waivers and be signed by the Braves and be eligible for their postseason roster. They could not trade him to the Braves. If he’s claimed (as if), he would join that team. If any of this happens after August 31, he’d be ineligible for the postseason. Is that correct?
Correct.

Something to note as far as waivers go is that the claiming team assumes the remainder of the player's contract. So if JBJ were claimed, the Sox would be off the hook for whatever salary remains to be paid and would be credited that portion in luxury tax calculations. If a player like JBJ goes unclaimed then signs somewhere else, the original team pays the remainder of the contract less the league minimum (pro-rated of course). That makes it unlikely that any player who is DFA while on a notable contract will be claimed. The Braves would probably rather pay JBJ a few thousand dollars than a million and change.
 

Harry Hooper

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Correct.

Something to note as far as waivers go is that the claiming team assumes the remainder of the player's contract. So if JBJ were claimed, the Sox would be off the hook for whatever salary remains to be paid and would be credited that portion in luxury tax calculations. If a player like JBJ goes unclaimed then signs somewhere else, the original team pays the remainder of the contract less the league minimum (pro-rated of course). That makes it unlikely that any player who is DFA while on a notable contract will be claimed. The Braves would probably rather pay JBJ a few thousand dollars than a million and change.
Plus the Braves in claiming would then be responsible for JBJ's expensive buyout or contract for 2023, yes?
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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He's averaging 6.6 walks per 9.

So as a right-handed Diekman replacement? Groovy.
An average that's well out of whack with his career numbers, suggesting it might be fixable. Or small sample size considering it's only over 12 total innings. He's only two years removed from finishing top 5 in Cy Young voting, so we know he can be good. He has options so they could send him to Worcester to try to figure things out.
 

Yaz4Ever

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An average that's well out of whack with his career numbers, suggesting it might be fixable. Or small sample size considering it's only over 12 total innings. He's only two years removed from finishing top 5 in Cy Young voting, so we know he can be good. He has options so they could send him to Worcester to try to figure things out.
Seems like he’s probably worth a flier over Ort, at least.
Exactly. Diekman wasn’t the only expendable arm in our pen. Lamet was lights out in 2020. Worth a shot, imho.
 

GB5

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Strong no to paying JD anywhere in the neighborhood of 20 mill next year. I appreciate his desire to be here but unless he starts to show some signs of power in his bat in the last 60 games, I think the time to cut bait is the end of the season. I think Chaim will not be interested in a 20 Mill DH. I think he will patch it together with a platoon of something like Bobby or Refsnyder against Lefties and maybe Hosmer against righties depending on who else is acquired.
 

grimshaw

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Re: Lamet, there must be more to the story. Jake McGee has an ERA close to 7 and he wasn't DFA'd instead. Their pen is just ok aside from the top two guys.

If he's fixable I doubt he makes it to the Sox anyhow.
 

E5 Yaz

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Bloom in KC to talk to the team about the trade deadline and the future. Plans specifically to talk to Xander after his comments on the Vasquez trade.

“I saw some of the things that he said. Even independent of that, he’s the first guy I want to talk to, really, in this clubhouse,” Bloom said. “He was going through his pregame routine that I didn’t want to disrupt so we talked very briefly. But we’ll talk.”
Bloom said he didn’t want to share his response to Bogaerts’ thoughts about the Vázquez trade before he talked to the shortstop.
“I’d rather talk to him first,” Bloom said. “I don’t want to read anything into a comment made in the heat of the moment when things are really raw without having a conversation with him.”

https://www.masslive.com/redsox/2022/08/chaim-bloom-will-talk-with-xander-bogaerts-others-about-red-soxs-moves-hes-the-first-guy-i-want-to-talk-to-in-this-clubhouse.html

X's comments

https://www.masslive.com/redsox/2022/08/xander-bogaerts-admits-hes-unsure-of-boston-red-soxs-direction-after-christian-vazquez-trade-thats-a-big-piece-going-out.html
 

Bosoxian

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Got it. If the Red Sox waived JBJ tomorrow, he could clear waivers and be signed by the Braves and be eligible for their postseason roster. They could not trade him to the Braves. If he’s claimed (as if), he would join that team. If any of this happens after August 31, he’d be ineligible for the postseason. Is that correct?
Damn, how often does someone get the call correct down to the day?
 

Cesar Crespo

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An argument for Casas. Cross posting from the minor league thread, but belongs here too as I'm calling for a promotion this year.

Casas:
2022
.264/.359/.536 vs R. 22bb/29k in 167 PA
.216/.344/.275 vs L. 10bb/22k in 61 PA

2021
.298/.424/.540 vs R. 51bb/51k in 288 PA
.219/.289/.301 vs L. 6bb/20k in 83 PA

These are mind boggling splits.
2022: .272 ISO vs R, 13.2% BB%, 17.4% K%
2022: .059 ISO vs L, 16.4% BB%, 36.1% K%

2021: .242 ISO vs R, 17.7% BB%, 17.7% K%
2021: .082 ISO vs L, 7.2% BB%, 24.1% K%.

He has 23 XBH in 2022. 20 are vs R. All 9 of his HR are vs R.
He had 32 XBH in 2021. 28 were vs R. 13 of his 14 HR vs R.

I'd be close to calling him up. I'm not sure how many more lefties he's going to face the rest of the year but by the time he gets enough exposure vs L, it will be like 2025. 2024 at the earliest.

He has a career 249 PA vs L over the course of 256 Games (3 years). He probably had next to 0 PA vs quality lefties prior to the minors. Even if one is generous, he has less than 300 career PA vs L.

On the other hand, he has 855 PA vs R since joining the Sox and he's done nothing but mash.

At some point, the Sox will have to let Casas learn how to hit lefties on the job. There just aren't enough PA in a year vs L to keep Casas down much longer.

That's some very good power from a 21/22 year old player who is/was young for the level with very good BB%/K% vs RHP. I have a hard time buying the argument he needs a lot more seasoning in AAA, and that he will get that seasoning in a month of games at the IL level.
 

Niastri

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They need to wait at least until it won't screw up the new draft pick compensation in case Casas wins Rookie of the Year next year... But I tend to agree.

Casas will face mostly righties in the majors as well, maybe they just give him the night off once a week vs lefties to protect him, as well as pinch hitting for him in tight games late if the opposition brings in a lefty to face him.

Assuming a super cheap Hosmer gets something of value, a Dalbec/Casas platoon could be very good, and Dalbec call also be the DH/2B/3B deep depth while we wait (forever?) for him to prove his August/September numbers from '21 are for real.

It would be amazing if both Casas and Dalbec reached their potential next year and we got cost controlled sluggers at 1B and DH for a while. Dalbec is still my prospect binky, I guess.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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I didn’t see the end of last night’s game, but just reviewed the box score. Why did Cora try to squeeze a third inning out of Whitlock instead of bringing Houk in for the 9th?
Is it really "squeezing" a third inning out of him when he was at 19 total pitches to get 6 outs?

It's fairly common practice, even if it defies logic, for managers to "save" their closer for extra innings on the road. Cora was simply following normal convention.
 

Max Power

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Whitlock was actually at 19 pitches to get 8 outs. I had zero problem with Cora leaving him in to start the 9th. He was at 16 pitches to start the 9th.
It seems like there are some people who think every team could go 162-0 if the manager just hit the right buttons. He had one of his best pitchers well rested in the biggest spot in the game. And he choked. It happens and there isn't anything you can do about it (other than scoring a few more runs against a terrible pitching staff).

I had a bad feeling about the final pitch before it was thrown. Pratto was the only one who had extended an at bat against Whitlock and he called time right before the pitch. It broke up Whitlock's rhythm and may have contributed to a hanging change. It would have been a good time for a mound visit from Plawecki.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Verdugo start-May 31st: 190 PA, .227/.263/.335, .237 BAbip.
Verdugo since June 1st:: 234 PA, .306/.350/.425, .335 BAbip.
Season to date: 424 PA, .271/.311/.385, .291 BAbip.

Career: .285/.339/.429, .315 BAbip.

With the BAbip luck normalizing, he's inching closer to his career totals.

Christian Arroyo's since 2021: 335 PA, .266/.322/.430. OPS+ 101. .325 BAbip in 2021, .288 in 2022.
 

8slim

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Somewhere a couple months back in this thread I mentioned that my baseline expectation for the Sox is they they are plausibly in playoff contention through Labor Day weekend.

So I’m really bummed that there are four more weeks until Labor Day weekend and not only are the Sox close to falling out of the most inclusive playoff race in MLB history, but that they have also become almost unwatchable.

For all the personnel moves that went right last season, seems like we’re seeing the complete opposite this season. Just a sloppy, inept, hole riddled ball club. Really disappointing.
 

donutogre

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So I’m really bummed that there are four more weeks until Labor Day weekend and not only are the Sox close to falling out of the most inclusive playoff race in MLB history, but that they have also become almost unwatchable.
Well said, particularly the bit about falling out of the “most inclusive playoff race” the MLB has ever had.
 

Sin Duda

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So I’m really bummed that there are four more weeks until Labor Day weekend and not only are the Sox close to falling out of the most inclusive playoff race in MLB history, but that they have also become almost unwatchable.

For all the personnel moves that went right last season, seems like we’re seeing the complete opposite this season. Just a sloppy, inept, hole riddled ball club. Really disappointing.
I hate it when the summer ends prematurely. And if they fall more games behind than weeks left in the season, it's over from my perspective. At least the NFL is starting.
 

ledsox

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Xander and JD combined have 18 HRs. If we double that total, Aaron Judge is still 7 ahead.

X and JD combined have 8 fewer rbi than Judge (97).

Even adding Devers’ HRs to the 18 from X and JD, Judge is still ahead by 1. .

X does have 1 more hit than Judge.
 

bosox188

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Xander and JD combined have 18 HRs. If we double that total, Aaron Judge is still 7 ahead.

X and JD combined have 8 fewer rbi than Judge (97).

Even adding Devers’ HRs to the 18 from X and JD, Judge is still ahead by 1. .

X does have 1 more hit than Judge.
What is the point here? Judge is having an historically great season, JD is 34 and probably in decline, but we've gotten as much as we could ask for out of his contract. Bogaerts is not and never has been a 35+ HR type of guy but he's having another characteristically excellent season. If we'd traded for Juan Soto and added his production to JD's it still probably wouldn't match Judge's this season. That's not the problem.
 

ledsox

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Yes, it’s highlighting the amazing year by Judge but also a severe power outage from two of the top Sox power hitters. Last year JD and X combined for 53 HRs. Since 2019, X has hit 27 HR per 162 games. It’s not an insignificant part of the Sox mediocrity this year.
 

chrisfont9

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Strong no to paying JD anywhere in the neighborhood of 20 mill next year. I appreciate his desire to be here but unless he starts to show some signs of power in his bat in the last 60 games, I think the time to cut bait is the end of the season. I think Chaim will not be interested in a 20 Mill DH. I think he will patch it together with a platoon of something like Bobby or Refsnyder against Lefties and maybe Hosmer against righties depending on who else is acquired.
Weak no here. Is it a good contract? No, but it's not my money and their 2023 commitments are about half of the current payroll, so there isn't much downside -- on a one year deal. You could go year to year with him, although if he really wants to be here you could probably find the right number and go year to year on that.
 

Bread of Yaz

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Yes, it’s highlighting the amazing year by Judge but also a severe power outage from two of the top Sox power hitters. Last year JD and X combined for 53 HRs. Since 2019, X has hit 27 HR per 162 games. It’s not an insignificant part of the Sox mediocrity this year.
Right. For all the stated concerns about Bloom not having a good backup plan for 1B and CF this offseason, maybe the more systemic and impactful issue was failing to recognize that two of the three middle of the order bats would not, in fact, be useful middle of the order bats in 2022.
 

Lose Remerswaal

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Right. For all the stated concerns about Bloom not having a good backup plan for 1B and CF this offseason, maybe the more systemic and impactful issue was failing to recognize that two of the three middle of the order bats would not, in fact, be useful middle of the order bats in 2022.
I am not sure how you identify this kind of thing. Did Cashman recognize that Gallo was going to dry up? Did the Dodgers see Muncy's useless bat coming? And if Bloom did see that coming, what could he have done about? Traded JD and Xander in the offseason?
 

E5 Yaz

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... two of the three middle of the order bats would not, in fact, be useful middle of the order bats in 2022.
I'm confused.
Xander is ahead of his career marks in OBP, OPS, OPS+ and BA this season, and his slugging is off by only .006. Yes, the home runs are down ... but how is he not a useful middle of the order bat this season?
 

Cesar Crespo

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I'm confused.
Xander is ahead of his career marks in OBP, OPS, OPS+ and BA this season, and his slugging is off by only .006. Yes, the home runs are down ... but how is he not a useful middle of the order bat this season?
His ISO stands at .141 with a BAbip of .382. HR% of 2.0% His ISO from 2018-2021 was .224, and he had .330 BAbip. HR% of 4.3%.

Looking at his career numbers isn't very informative either. He established a new baseline in 2018. He has crashed this year and is being lifted up by BAbip luck.

edit: And if most players peak at 28 years old.. and he is now 29 years old... I don't necessarily believe he's in decline but it wouldn't be some huge shock. Probably just as likely his HR% rebounds.