Red Sox in season discussion

Rasputin

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So either Jackie is getting DFAed or Refsnyder is going on the IL. Doesn't really make sense to keep Duran on the roster to not play, and I can't really see them sending him down.
Why can't you see them sending him down? He's clearly not quite ready for primetime and could use a month out of the spotlight to work on whatever he's learned with the big club.
 

canderson

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So this team got slightly better on the field (maybe an extra win or two, maybe - not enough to leap 4 teams and no pitching help) but much, much less likable. They didn’t rebuild a minor league system with anything other than what appears to be maybe slightly above average bodies.

Maybe they can flip Hosmer this off-season, SD eating the salary is good but he isn’t turning this season around.

The Pham and Vazquez deals still make no sense to me whatsoever.
 

joe dokes

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Why can't you see them sending him down? He's clearly not quite ready for primetime and could use a month out of the spotlight to work on whatever he's learned with the big club.
I think they've decided he's maxxed out his AAA learnin. Its more like "letting him play CF on the regular" is a cousin of "selling."
 

scottyno

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Shouldn’t Duran be the starting CF in this scenario?
Yeah, that's why I assume JBJ is going if Ref isn't going on the injured list. Either he or Duran has to start in center field until Kike is back, and it makes way more sense for it to be Duran, which doesn't really leave a roster spot for JBJ.

So this team got slightly better on the field (maybe an extra win or two, maybe - not enough to leap 4 teams and no pitching help) but much, much less likable. They didn’t rebuild a minor league system with anything other than what appears to be maybe slightly above average bodies.
Plus all the guys they're about to start getting back from the IL
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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Is there any explanation as to why Rich Hill was activated, scheduled to start on Wednesday, and now isn’t? Bello is, now. Any idea what’s going on here?
 

sodenj5

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Chaim played musical chairs. I have no idea why you would move Vazquez and not JD Martinez.

This team is not good. They’ve been terrible against other good teams. Chaim got a lot of leash after last season, but this was baffling.
 

soxhop411

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Chaim played musical chairs. I have no idea why you would move Vazquez and not JD Martinez.

This team is not good. They’ve been terrible against other good teams. Chaim got a lot of leash after last season, but this was baffling.
given JD Martinez performance to date vs that of Vazquez, Im pretty sure its that teams didn't think JDM would be worth the cost
 

The Gray Eagle

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Chaim played musical chairs. I have no idea why you would move Vazquez and not JD Martinez.
Learn about Qualifying Offers and think about it a bit. It's been mentioned many times in various threads here today.

Martinez and Eovaldi will likely be offered QOs this offseason, if they stay healthy and don't suck too much the rest of this season. Vazquez was not going to be offered one no matter what. So they took the best offer they could get for Vaz and didn't move Eovaldi or JD because there's probably more value from keeping them and offering the QO than trading them today for whatever they were offered. It might work out or it might not. But that is the reason why they did what they did.
 

Apisith

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We need a thread for Crawford, who's been really good for nearly 2 months already. In 43 innings, 8 games, all against playoff teams, he's put up an ERA of 2.72, which is really, really good. His FIP and xFIP are close, so it's legit. He's pitching like an ace. You know, if we can somehow squeeze into the postseason, with Crawford, Eovaldi, whatever version of Sale and Pivetta, we can compete. The bullpen with Schreiber, Whitlock and Houck are also very good, dare I say lockdown. If Story comes back, the lineup is lengthened.
 

Philip Jeff Frye

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Learn about Qualifying Offers and think about it a bit. It's been mentioned many times in various threads here today.

Martinez and Eovaldi will likely be offered QOs this offseason, if they stay healthy and don't suck too much the rest of this season. Vazquez was not going to be offered one no matter what. So they took the best offer they could get for Vaz and didn't move Eovaldi or JD because there's probably more value from keeping them and offering the QO than trading them today for whatever they were offered. It might work out or it might not. But that is the reason why they did what they did.
If JDM gets a qualifying offer, doesn't that pretty much guarantee that's he back next year? What team is going to sign him given the draft penalty? Apparently no one wanted him right now. Isn't he just going to accept the offer as the best contract he can get?

Do we want Martinez on the team next year?
 

joe dokes

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We need a thread for Crawford, who's been really good for nearly 2 months already. In 43 innings, 8 games, all against playoff teams, he's put up an ERA of 2.72, which is really, really good. His FIP and xFIP are close, so it's legit. He's pitching like an ace. You know, if we can somehow squeeze into the postseason, with Crawford, Eovaldi, whatever version of Sale and Pivetta, we can compete. The bullpen with Schreiber, Whitlock and Houck are also very good, dare I say lockdown. If Story comes back, the lineup is lengthened.
It's nice to have a minor league starter come up and contribute. Winckowski, too, has been serviceable as the 5th best starter. Without those 2 giving the team chances to win, things would look a lot worse.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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If JDM gets a qualifying offer, doesn't that pretty much guarantee that's he back next year? What team is going to sign him given the draft penalty? Apparently no one wanted him right now. Isn't he just going to accept the offer as the best contract he can get?

Do we want Martinez on the team next year?
Supposing he accepts a QO, what is the down side of one more year of Martinez at no greater a salary than they're paying now?
 

jon abbey

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Supposing he accepts a QO, what is the down side of one more year of Martinez at no greater a salary than they're paying now?
Not exactly arguing against it, but the downside is that with no JD, it would be much easier to slot in both Hosmer and Casas. Casas will likely get some big league ABs this year though, and then Bloom will have more info for this decision.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Not exactly arguing against it, but the downside is that with no JD, it would be much easier to slot in both Hosmer and Casas. Casas will likely get some big league ABs this year though, and then Bloom will have more info for this decision.
I guess I see both Hosmer and JD as tradable next winter if there's only room for one of them. Hosmer on a 2/26 with a portion of it subsidized by the Padres already is a moveable contract this winter. JD on a 1/19 is not immovable. While 2 months of a possibly hurt (back injuries can linger) Martinez couldn't scrap a return equivalent to a compensation pick, perhaps a full season of a healthier Martinez can. Especially if maybe they send a bit of that SD cash (so to speak) along with him.

If that's the worst that could happen offering him a QO, I see no reason not to do it.
 

Philip Jeff Frye

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You want to pay $19 million to a 35 year old DH who is on a pace to hit 14 home runs this year?

And why would the Sox give him to that sort of contract and then subsidize somebody to take him off their hands? Wouldn't it be better just to let him leave in the first place?
 

Rovin Romine

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I guess I see both Hosmer and JD as tradable next winter if there's only room for one of them. Hosmer on a 2/26 with a portion of it subsidized by the Padres already is a moveable contract this winter. JD on a 1/19 is not immovable. While 2 months of a possibly hurt (back injuries can linger) Martinez couldn't scrap a return equivalent to a compensation pick, perhaps a full season of a healthier Martinez can. Especially if maybe they send a bit of that SD cash (so to speak) along with him.

If that's the worst that could happen offering him a QO, I see no reason not to do it.
Just wanted to note that as far as I can see the outcome would be comparing 5 factors:

1) JD being offered a QO and accepting = Sox get to play for the Sox at the mean salary of the top 125 MLB players for 2023. Last year that was $18.4m/year.

2) JD being offered a QO and declining = Sox get a compensation pick. As they're over the lux tax threshold, that's a 4th/5th round pick. (They also lose their 2nd and 5th order picks if they sign any FA who has rejected a QO.)

3) Staying over the lux tax threshold for 2022. (Does the acquiring team take JD's salary - and if so, how much?)

4) JD making a difference this year in the run to the postseason, and in the postseason (if any.)

5) The value of whatever prospects whatever team was going to give up for JD.


So, I think we have to assume #5 was pretty high, given #4. I think that's the real factor here. I think they think they have a shot at this. A comp pick may have an internally assigned value by the club, but what are the odds a 4/5 rounder develops into a difference-making player? If so, they're probably several years off. Could they have traded JD for a prospect that was the equivalent of a solid 3rd round pick? Like Sox #14, Blaze Jordan? Probably.
 

BigSoxFan

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You want to pay $19 million to a 35 year old DH who is on a pace to hit 14 home runs this year?

And why would the Sox give him to that sort of contract and then subsidize somebody to take him off their hands? Wouldn't it be better just to let him leave in the first place?
While also impacting the team’s positional flexibility. The days of JD at DH “set it and forget it” appear to be over.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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You want to pay $19 million to a 35 year old DH who is on a pace to hit 14 home runs this year?

And why would the Sox give him to that sort of contract and then subsidize somebody to take him off their hands? Wouldn't it be better just to let him leave in the first place?
Want to? Not necessarily. However, I think the bigger folly is not offering the QO and he walks away for nothing. If he doesn't accept, great. If he does, it's not the end of the world. It's not like I'm proposing they offer a QO to Franchy Cordero or something.
 

Philip Jeff Frye

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Want to? Not necessarily. However, I think the bigger folly is not offering the QO and he walks away for nothing. If he doesn't accept, great. If he does, it's not the end of the world. It's not like I'm proposing they offer a QO to Franchy Cordero or something.
"Letting him walk away for nothing" is a false choice - if he's offered the QO, he's going to accept it, so you're never getting that draft pick.

He didn't opt out last year when he could have because he knew nobody was going to offer him what he could get from the Bosox. Why would anything be different now when he's been worse this year, and is another year older?
 
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CoffeeNerdness

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You want to pay $19 million to a 35 year old DH who is on a pace to hit 14 home runs this year?

And why would the Sox give him to that sort of contract and then subsidize somebody to take him off their hands? Wouldn't it be better just to let him leave in the first place?
If there's a player I'd be willing to bet on to rebound after a down season it'd be JD Martinez. 35 isn't too old for a DH and who knows how much the back issues have played into the power drain. He still has an .804 OPS fwiw, so not exactly dead weight and he's only 11 doubles off setting a career best.

Nelson Cruz hit 208 HR between 35 - 40 which includes 2020.
 

jon abbey

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Wow, this is remarkable. For anyone who doubts that Bloom has a plan (a bit understandable right now), his plan from the start has pretty clearly been ‘refill the system that Dombrowski let wither while trying to remain competitive’ and here are some numbers to make you feel better. In the wake of Dombrowski’s firing in 2019, I checked the number of prospects that Fangraphs deemed worthy of rating, and I just checked again now, an incredible job in three years of restocking.

Oct 2019:

TB-59
NYY-58
BOS-33

Aug 2022:

TB-64
BOS-63
NYY-38
 

Cesar Crespo

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If there's a player I'd be willing to bet on to rebound after a down season it'd be JD Martinez. 35 isn't too old for a DH and who knows how much the back issues have played into the power drain. He still has an .804 OPS fwiw, so not exactly dead weight and he's only 11 doubles off setting a career best.

Nelson Cruz hit 208 HR between 35 - 40 which includes 2020.
Sox still have a few months before they make a decision too. It's possible JD rebounds or craters making the decision easier.
 

Puffy

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I guess I see both Hosmer and JD as tradable next winter if there's only room for one of them. Hosmer on a 2/26 with a portion of it subsidized by the Padres already is a moveable contract this winter. JD on a 1/19 is not immovable. While 2 months of a possibly hurt (back injuries can linger) Martinez couldn't scrap a return equivalent to a compensation pick, perhaps a full season of a healthier Martinez can. Especially if maybe they send a bit of that SD cash (so to speak) along with him.

If that's the worst that could happen offering him a QO, I see no reason not to do it.
I suppose we might also view Casas as slightly more tradable this winter as well. If he were the linchpin to having Sean Murphy as our starting catcher for the next 3 years, for example. Bloom gets a view of our 1B/DH options this August and September and carries some leverage and chips into the winter in evaluating his next moves. With the roster crunch, it does seem like a trade involving 3 or 4 of our prospects for a bigger fish might be imminent.
 

Rovin Romine

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I suppose we might also view Casas as slightly more tradable this winter as well. If he were the linchpin to having Sean Murphy as our starting catcher for the next 3 years, for example. Bloom gets a view of our 1B/DH options this August and September and carries some leverage and chips into the winter in evaluating his next moves. With the roster crunch, it does seem like a trade involving 3 or 4 of our prospects for a bigger fish might be imminent.
Hmm. I'm not up on the details of the new CBA, but I'm pretty sure the control for Cassas is still 3 years (service time, not calendar years) pre-arb, then 3 arb years. I know there were some tweaks to incentivize not doing split years to extend control. Like extra draft picks if Cassas is on the opening day roster, spends the full year with the club, and is a ROY. Not sure what the odds of that are, or if it's a factor for the front office.

Murphy begins arb in 2023, and the team has 3 years of control from that point, ages 29-31. Plus bat for a catcher, plus defense. . .but bWAR (FWIW) is at 2.7 for his longest season, and at a better ratio for his shorter playing seasons.

Cassas if he's called up in in 2023 would be 23, so that's team control for ages 23-29. If he's a mid-season call up, 23-30? He's got a very good hit tool and undeniable raw power that will find expression through it. Above average 1B to all-star seems to be the projection range.

Catchers are harder to find than 1B. . .but as we've seen, above average 1B don't just grow on trees.

I think I hold onto Cassas unless you're talking about a completely proven player for 3 or 4 years. I'm not quite sure Murphy fits in that box.
 

BigSoxFan

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Wow, this is remarkable. For anyone who doubts that Bloom has a plan (a bit understandable right now), his plan from the start has pretty clearly been ‘refill the system that Dombrowski let wither while trying to remain competitive’ and here are some numbers to make you feel better. In the wake of Dombrowski’s firing in 2019, I checked the number of prospects that Fangraphs deemed worthy of rating, and I just checked again now, an incredible job in three years of restocking.

Oct 2019:

TB-59
NYY-58
BOS-33

Aug 2022:

TB-64
BOS-63
NYY-38
He’s definitely replenished the farm system. Not easy to do but not a Herculean task either. The real question is how he monetizes it. I really think this offseason will be pretty telling. A lot needs to come together and he now has the currency to make moves.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Hmm. I'm not up on the details of the new CBA, but I'm pretty sure the control for Cassas is still 3 years (service time, not calendar years) pre-arb, then 3 arb years. I know there were some tweaks to incentivize not doing split years to extend control. Like extra draft picks if Cassas is on the opening day roster, spends the full year with the club, and is a ROY. Not sure what the odds of that are, or if it's a factor for the front office.

Murphy begins arb in 2023, and the team has 3 years of control from that point, ages 29-31. Plus bat for a catcher, plus defense. . .but bWAR (FWIW) is at 2.7 for his longest season, and at a better ratio for his shorter playing seasons.

Cassas if he's called up in in 2023 would be 23, so that's team control for ages 23-29. If he's a mid-season call up, 23-30? He's got a very good hit tool and undeniable raw power that will find expression through it. Above average 1B to all-star seems to be the projection range.

Catchers are harder to find than 1B. . .but as we've seen, above average 1B don't just grow on trees.

I think I hold onto Cassas unless you're talking about a completely proven player for 3 or 4 years. I'm not quite sure Murphy fits in that box.
Teams are now rewarded picks for ROY and other awards so having Casas start the year could be beneficial.
 

grimshaw

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I suppose we might also view Casas as slightly more tradable this winter as well. If he were the linchpin to having Sean Murphy as our starting catcher for the next 3 years, for example. Bloom gets a view of our 1B/DH options this August and September and carries some leverage and chips into the winter in evaluating his next moves. With the roster crunch, it does seem like a trade involving 3 or 4 of our prospects for a bigger fish might be imminent.
I think Triston Casas just has too much value to the Red Sox to move just because the system is so thin at the position and they still haven't stocked the cupboard even when loading up everywhere else. Plus the two catchers Bloom has traded for the past few seasons are now in AAA and have seen the majors.

I would absolutely make a run at Murphy but I don't think they should move Casas in any circumstance.
 

nvalvo

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I also don’t think we should let anything related to Hosmer impact our plans with Casas at all. If anything, Hosmer’s three year commitment with the Padres paying 95% means we can keep Hosmer until Casas is 100% ready and then just DFA him. Plan A should be Casas debuting in September and winning the job in Spring Training.
 
Learn about Qualifying Offers and think about it a bit. It's been mentioned many times in various threads here today.

Martinez and Eovaldi will likely be offered QOs this offseason, if they stay healthy and don't suck too much the rest of this season. Vazquez was not going to be offered one no matter what. So they took the best offer they could get for Vaz and didn't move Eovaldi or JD because there's probably more value from keeping them and offering the QO than trading them today for whatever they were offered. It might work out or it might not. But that is the reason why they did what they did.
This is a good point, but we're still missing something here. Vazquez was only making 7M per through his current contract and had expressed a desire to continue as a Red Sock through presumably his last contract. He was therefore more likely to accept a QO if offered, possibly even at a home-town discount (whereas Eovaldi, Martinez and Hernandez will almost certainly not sign to a low-ball offer). It seems that the FO had pretty much given up on him altogether, whether through their own projections or something else. And honestly, but cutting Vazquez loose, they appear to have already moved on from Bogaerts and the other expiring contracts altogether. I also recall that the FO pretty much expected (and perhaps wanted) Martinez to not exercise is player option this past off-season. Are the Sox going to start operating as a small-market franchise?
 

jon abbey

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If anything, Hosmer’s three year commitment with the Padres paying 95% means we can keep Hosmer until Casas is 100% ready and then just DFA him.
Baseball requires tough real world decisions sometimes (Jameson Taillon last night was talking about how he is part of Jordan Montgomery's upcoming wedding), but DFAing a player's mentor to make room for him to start his career sounds quite tricky.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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This is a good point, but we're still missing something here. Vazquez was only making 7M per through his current contract and had expressed a desire to continue as a Red Sock through presumably his last contract. He was therefore more likely to accept a QO if offered, possibly even at a home-town discount (whereas Eovaldi, Martinez and Hernandez will almost certainly not sign to a low-ball offer). It seems that the FO had pretty much given up on him altogether, whether through their own projections or something else. And honestly, but cutting Vazquez loose, they appear to have already moved on from Bogaerts and the other expiring contracts altogether. I also recall that the FO pretty much expected (and perhaps wanted) Martinez to not exercise is player option this past off-season. Are the Sox going to start operating as a small-market franchise?
The QO is established at a set amount- something like $19M last year, there is no negotiating, if a player is offered and accepts, he gets that amount. There’s no way they would offer him it because it’s far more than he’s worth. I am surprised they didn’t extend him but perhaps they didn’t want to, he didn’t want to, couldn’t agree on an amount. They could still sign him in the off-season if so inclined.

I am mostly surprised that the team has carried both Wong and Hernandez on the 40-man all year, yet seem to have little faith in either. Seems like at least one of those roster spots could have been better utilized during the year.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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This is a good point, but we're still missing something here. Vazquez was only making 7M per through his current contract and had expressed a desire to continue as a Red Sock through presumably his last contract. He was therefore more likely to accept a QO if offered, possibly even at a home-town discount (whereas Eovaldi, Martinez and Hernandez will almost certainly not sign to a low-ball offer). It seems that the FO had pretty much given up on him altogether, whether through their own projections or something else. And honestly, but cutting Vazquez loose, they appear to have already moved on from Bogaerts and the other expiring contracts altogether. I also recall that the FO pretty much expected (and perhaps wanted) Martinez to not exercise is player option this past off-season. Are the Sox going to start operating as a small-market franchise?
QO is a flat rate deal. There's no hometown discount if it is accepted. Though of course, it doesn't rule out signing a longer term deal to overwrite it, but if Vazquez (or anyone) is accepting a 1/19 QO, it might be more difficult to convert that into a 2/24 or 3/37 type deal.

I don't think the notion of bringing Vazquez back for next season can be ruled out. He's a relatively low salary player at a premium position in the midst of a pretty good season. He's arguably the most valuable and/or desirable player the Sox had to offer at the deadline. Indeed the fact that he was dealt and others weren't backs that up. Like he said at the time of the trade, "it's business." It could also be "business" to bring him back.
 

joe dokes

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This is a good point, but we're still missing something here. Vazquez was only making 7M per through his current contract and had expressed a desire to continue as a Red Sock through presumably his last contract. He was therefore more likely to accept a QO if offered, possibly even at a home-town discount (whereas Eovaldi, Martinez and Hernandez will almost certainly not sign to a low-ball offer). It seems that the FO had pretty much given up on him altogether, whether through their own projections or something else. And honestly, but cutting Vazquez loose, they appear to have already moved on from Bogaerts and the other expiring contracts altogether. I also recall that the FO pretty much expected (and perhaps wanted) Martinez to not exercise is player option this past off-season. Are the Sox going to start operating as a small-market franchise?
I think a QO would have to be related to some of the top paid players' salaries, but not by position. I think it was $18M last year. If true, then I think its pretty unlikely the Sox would have offered Vazquez QO.
 

Rovin Romine

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The QO is established at a set amount- something like $19M last year, there is no negotiating, if a player is offered and accepts, he gets that amount. There’s no way they would offer him it because it’s far more than he’s worth. I am surprised they didn’t extend him but perhaps they didn’t want to, he didn’t want to, couldn’t agree on an amount. They could still sign him in the off-season if so inclined.

I am mostly surprised that the team has carried both Wong and Hernandez on the 40-man all year, yet seem to have little faith in either. Seems like at least one of those roster spots could have been better utilized during the year.
Vazquez is 31 with $22m in lifetime earnings. He's pretty young for a FA catcher. He can probably get a multi-year deal with a club (perhaps including the Red Sox). But the premise is the Sox didn't think he was a key component of this team for the remainder of the year. That there's no secret intangible value in CV above the prospects he fetched.

If that's true, do you really make a guy like that a 1 year, $19m offer? On the hope that he declines so you can get a pick?

FA contracts are front-loaded, so I guess from the player's POV the tradeoff would be the security of a long term deal, v. $19m and then trying for a long term deal in their age 33 season. How much is the hypothetical difference between the two long term deals?
 

grimshaw

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Top of the list matters a lot more too and 4 of the top 6 were DD. One could argue Bloom was gifted Mayer as well. I give him credit, he still had to draft him.

Still, rebuilding a farm takes some time. The team probably isn't lucking into two top 20 prospects in a year or getting a top 4 pick again. Though the lottery changes things. Especially this year if the team sells off players and moves down the rankings, though there's a lot of drek out there.
They also did not have a 1st rounder in 2019 or a 2nd rounder in 2020. And it's only the occasional year they get to draft near the top.
 

Rovin Romine

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I think a QO would have to be related to some of the top paid players' salaries, but not by position. I think it was $18M last year. If true, then I think its pretty unlikely the Sox would have offered Vazquez QO.
Unless changed in the last CBA, it's the average of the highest paid 125 players. So $18.4M last year. Probably $19M this year.
 

Cesar Crespo

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If that's true, do you really make a guy like that a 1 year, $19m offer? On the hope that he declines so you can get a pick?
If he declined, no team would sign him until they no longer had to give up a pick. There's no way he would decline unless he got absolutely terrible advice from an agent.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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I'm generally puzzled by the trade deadline. I'm not anti or pro and I'll judge it later based on the results of the players impact on the team. I don't see adding Hosmer, Pham and McGuire and subtracting Vazquez as enough of a net positive to make an impact in the (if) playoffs. A rotation of Eovaldi, Pivetta and Crawford (way past his innings limits) will be enough. The bullpen suddenly looks to be a strength and the lineup is improved, but with JD still looking terrible---He's had 4 HR's and a .660 OPS since June 1st--- I don't see them surviving the first round and I'm very, very much an optimistic-get-in-and-anything-can-happen type. Bloom REALLY needed to address 1B and RF and I don't think the overall improvement to the team moved the needle enough. If a healthy Sale was back and if JD can get it going again I'll change my tune but Sale isn't walking through that door and JD is really looking slow.
The rationale of the QO isn't working for me either. I can definitely see it with Eovaldi and hope they can work out another 3 year deal. But a QO to JD is a bad idea. He's not getting that in FA and he's going to accept and I am definitely NOT betting on him returning to even a consistent .850 OPS hitter with 25 HR's. To me, a DH MUST be at least that productive if the position is dedicated to just a hitter and not a place to cycle through for rest.
I do like what Bloom is doing generally, especially with the long term outlook, but this deadline seemed cautious and last offseason he looked like he put all his eggs in the Suzuki bin and lost out on Schwarber. But..... nothing else to really do but wait.
 

Cesar Crespo

79
SoSH Member
Dec 22, 2002
20,955
And what is Crawford's innings limit? He's at 78.0. He was at 94.2 +21.1 (depending on what you do with those innings) in 2021.
 

joe dokes

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 18, 2005
24,494
I'm generally puzzled by the trade deadline. I'm not anti or pro and I'll judge it later based on the results of the players impact on the team. I don't see adding Hosmer, Pham and McGuire and subtracting Vazquez as enough of a net positive to make an impact in the (if) playoffs. A rotation of Eovaldi, Pivetta and Crawford (way past his innings limits) will be enough. The bullpen suddenly looks to be a strength and the lineup is improved, but with JD still looking terrible---He's had 4 HR's and a .660 OPS since June 1st--- I don't see them surviving the first round and I'm very, very much an optimistic-get-in-and-anything-can-happen type. Bloom REALLY needed to address 1B and RF and I don't think the overall improvement to the team moved the needle enough. If a healthy Sale was back and if JD can get it going again I'll change my tune but Sale isn't walking through that door and JD is really looking slow.
The rationale of the QO isn't working for me either. I can definitely see it with Eovaldi and hope they can work out another 3 year deal. But a QO to JD is a bad idea. He's not getting that in FA and he's going to accept and I am definitely NOT betting on him returning to even a consistent .850 OPS hitter with 25 HR's. To me, a DH MUST be at least that productive if the position is dedicated to just a hitter and not a place to cycle through for rest.
I do like what Bloom is doing generally, especially with the long term outlook, but this deadline seemed cautious and last offseason he looked like he put all his eggs in the Suzuki bin and lost out on Schwarber. But..... nothing else to really do but wait.
Trying to unravel the JD conundrum.... I suppose that there was very little attractive offered and that Bloom is OK with trading him for next to nothing next year if he accepts. (Im assuming a team can trade a guy that just agreed to a QO. Is this correct?)
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

Member
SoSH Member
Mar 11, 2007
4,216
Trying to unravel the JD conundrum.... I suppose that there was very little attractive offered and that Bloom is OK with trading him for next to nothing next year if he accepts. (Im assuming a team can trade a guy that just agreed to a QO. Is this correct?)
Assuming that the Sox would eat part of that QO cost? I guess that makes sense.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 23, 2009
16,997
Maine
And what is Crawford's innings limit? He's at 78.0. He was at 94.2 +21.1 (depending on what you do with those innings) in 2021.
Setting aside the winter league innings, it's not an unreasonable jump to go from 95 innings in one season to 120-130. If he averages 5 per start for the remainder of the season, assuming at least 10 starts, that would probably bring him close to if not over 130 innings. Assuming he's not showing signs of fatigue or injury, I see no need to shut him down at any point. If he gets to 140 or more, so be it.
 

JM3

Member
SoSH Member
Dec 14, 2019
1,777
I'm starting to think Bloom's plan was to trade out JD & bring in a different DH bat while arbitraging for more prospects & making a net positive trade cluster.

& then that plan fell apart either because the price went up for the player(s) he was looking to acquire, or the offers for JD he was expecting never materialized.

I don't think they'll do the QO for JD unless he rakes the last couple months, but Bloom probably determined that keeping JD around for whatever run they make this year made more sense than whatever dart throw prospect they would have gotten for him without a corresponding trade to not create a big lineup hole.
 

Rovin Romine

Johnny Rico
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Jul 14, 2005
17,782
Miami (oh, Miami!)
I'm generally puzzled by the trade deadline. I'm not anti or pro and I'll judge it later based on the results of the players impact on the team. I don't see adding Hosmer, Pham and McGuire and subtracting Vazquez as enough of a net positive to make an impact in the (if) playoffs. A rotation of Eovaldi, Pivetta and Crawford (way past his innings limits) will be enough. The bullpen suddenly looks to be a strength and the lineup is improved, but with JD still looking terrible---He's had 4 HR's and a .660 OPS since June 1st--- I don't see them surviving the first round and I'm very, very much an optimistic-get-in-and-anything-can-happen type. Bloom REALLY needed to address 1B and RF and I don't think the overall improvement to the team moved the needle enough. If a healthy Sale was back and if JD can get it going again I'll change my tune but Sale isn't walking through that door and JD is really looking slow.
The rationale of the QO isn't working for me either. I can definitely see it with Eovaldi and hope they can work out another 3 year deal. But a QO to JD is a bad idea. He's not getting that in FA and he's going to accept and I am definitely NOT betting on him returning to even a consistent .850 OPS hitter with 25 HR's. To me, a DH MUST be at least that productive if the position is dedicated to just a hitter and not a place to cycle through for rest.
I do like what Bloom is doing generally, especially with the long term outlook, but this deadline seemed cautious and last offseason he looked like he put all his eggs in the Suzuki bin and lost out on Schwarber. But..... nothing else to really do but wait.
Well, you've got to get to the playoffs first.

In terms of the regular-season lineup, we needed production from two black hole spots - OF and 1B. We addressed that (mostly.) Not the Schwarber-like single impact player, but this will lengthen the lineup.

In terms of the regular-season rotation and bullpen-spillover, we're a bit in the dark. But I think we can safely say the team's internal assessment is that they have enough depth to be competitive, and that includes whatever their internal projections are re: Paxton, Barnes, Taylor, Wacha, Hill, and the AAA arms. I have to assume they've accounted for some players factoring in this year, and some not - so making the playoffs wouldn't be based on unreasonable wish-casting about recovery times and upside realizations for every single pitcher. If they knew all the toys were broken they'd have gone into pure-seller mode.

However, the playoffs are 60 days out. What is the best lineup? Who are our top 3 starters? Which bullpen arms will be in good shape? We don't really need to know that now. Some of those questions will answer themselves, partially by the virtue of them simply having made it. Meaning, we're probably not getting to the playoffs if we don't have 3 or 4 effective starters in late September. So if we do, we'll know who they are.

As you say - nothing to do but wait and enjoy the games.