Red Sox in season discussion

BaseballJones

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The Sox are 50-51 currently, but on the wrong end of a 7-4 score in the top of the 9th tonight, so looking like 50-52 in a short time here. Given the Story news and the Sale injury and Devers' situation and the reality that the Sox will be sellers to some degree, what's the predicted win total right now, do you guys think? Right now it's hard for me to imagine they will get more than 75 wins. That's looking to me like the best-case scenario (if the goal will be to win games, which...it might not be soon). I think most likely they will end up with something like 71 wins and at least get a pretty high draft slot for next year.
 

Harry Hooper

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The Sox are 50-51 currently, but on the wrong end of a 7-4 score in the top of the 9th tonight, so looking like 50-52 in a short time here. Given the Story news and the Sale injury and Devers' situation and the reality that the Sox will be sellers to some degree, what's the predicted win total right now, do you guys think? Right now it's hard for me to imagine they will get more than 75 wins. That's looking to me like the best-case scenario (if the goal will be to win games, which...it might not be soon). I think most likely they will end up with something like 71 wins and at least get a pretty high draft slot for next year.
Bloom deals off a few pieces, and we'll probably see the remainers play some very uninspired ball down the stretch. Sadly, there's not much to call up from the minors that might show some energy at least.
 

Rovin Romine

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The Sox are 50-51 currently, but on the wrong end of a 7-4 score in the top of the 9th tonight, so looking like 50-52 in a short time here. Given the Story news and the Sale injury and Devers' situation and the reality that the Sox will be sellers to some degree, what's the predicted win total right now, do you guys think? Right now it's hard for me to imagine they will get more than 75 wins. That's looking to me like the best-case scenario (if the goal will be to win games, which...it might not be soon). I think most likely they will end up with something like 71 wins and at least get a pretty high draft slot for next year.
There's a lot of moving parts to that. First it depends on who gets traded. Then there's the call-up factor. I suspect they'd rather get seasoning for players they plan to use next year. Perhaps they'll be good this year. But the bullpen can always be relied on to implode I suppose.

So 71-75 seems likely. That's be a 7-14 pick or thereabouts.
 

soxhop411

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They day isnt over yet. So if you thought the sox would go a day without a player getting injured….. Rob Refsnyder may be joining the red sox injury squad due to a MCL injury.


View: https://twitter.com/chadjennings22/status/1553539572176396289?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1553539572176396289%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_c10&ref_url=

Rob Refsnyder has been dealing with an MCL injury, further depleting the Red Sox. Unclear whether it will require an IL stint. Hoping to avoid it.
 

Max Power

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They day isnt over yet. So if you thought the sox would go a day without a player getting injured….. Rob Refsnyder may be joining the red sox injury squad due to a MCL injury.


View: https://twitter.com/chadjennings22/status/1553539572176396289?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1553539572176396289%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_c10&ref_url=
That explains why he hasn't been used much even as Duran and Franchy regularly give away games. Sometimes the manager really knows more than we do.
 

scottyno

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If they do sell then this final 2 months is a great time to figure out if Barnes is salvageable or not or 2023, and if they don't sell then he replaces someone who isn't pitching well as a mop up guy anyway.
 

mauidano

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If they do sell then this final 2 months is a great time to figure out if Barnes is salvageable or not or 2023, and if they don't sell then he replaces someone who isn't pitching well as a mop up guy anyway.
The new Joe Kelly.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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If the Sox sell, Chris Sale needs to be kept in a full body cast until Spring Training.
I would like to see Eovaldi dealt to bring back something (Twins... I don't know their farm system at all) but think he'd be worth offering a 2/$40 contract to in FA. I honestly don't see any team offering him more than that.
 

Yaz4Ever

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If the Sox sell, Chris Sale needs to be kept in a full body cast until Spring Training.
I would like to see Eovaldi dealt to bring back something (Twins... I don't know their farm system at all) but think he'd be worth offering a 2/$40 contract to in FA. I honestly don't see any team offering him more than that.
I'd like Spencer Steer as part of an Eovaldi deal if he goes to Minnesota.
 

absintheofmalaise

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It would be helpful to others if people said why they would like a player to come back in a trade so that we don't have to go look him up. And to also link to him on B-Ref or another site.
 

Yaz4Ever

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It would be helpful to others if people said why they would like a player to come back in a trade so that we don't have to go look him up. And to also link to him on B-Ref or another site.
Sorry abs, Spencer Steer 2b with a little new found pop. Worst case, super utility guy with an ability to get on base as well.
 
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Cesar Crespo

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Sorry abs, Spencer Steer 2b with a little new found pop. Worst case, super utility guy with an ability to get on base as well.
I don't know if they update their prospect rankings during the season but he is the Twins #7 prospect according to MLB. He was their 3rd round pick in 2019, so he has some pedigree too.

He had 24 HRs last year with an ISO of .230. He found his pop last year, so this year doesn't appear flukish. 11.1% career BB%, 17.4% career k%. At the AAA level this year, it's 12.1%/18.5% in 232 PA.

Very interesting player.
 

moondog80

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Yaz4Ever

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I don't know if they update their prospect rankings during the season but he is the Twins #7 prospect according to MLB. He was their 3rd round pick in 2019, so he has some pedigree too.

He had 24 HRs last year with an ISO of .230. He found his pop last year, so this year doesn't appear flukish. 11.1% career BB%, 17.4% career k%. At the AAA level this year, it's 12.1%/18.5% in 232 PA.

Very interesting player.
Played SS at Oregon, but envisioned more as a 3b or 2b. If we lose Xander and slide Story over to SS (no guarantees on either), he could start at 2B next year. If Story stays at SS due to arm strength, Steer could play SS.
 

Max Power

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I am not surprised by this. Much like the Kevin Durant situation, you can set some ridiculously high asking price if you want, but that doesn't mean you'll find a team to pay it. In this case, the Nats have to face the fact his value to other teams if they would only have him for 2 pennant chases instead of 3.
Sure, but it also extends the pool of destinations to teams that hope to compete next year, but aren't going to now. That includes the Red Sox, Giants, and maybe White Sox. In general this type of deal works better in the offseason. If you're trading away the farm, you'd like to have some other deals lined up to fill in the team around Soto.
 

Cesar Crespo

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I was thinking mainly free agents.
And why does that involve waiting? Will the FAs be different if the Sox trade for Soto now? I'd argue trading for him now would give the team more time to focus on FA signings.

I'm against trading for him though. I'm against these 10+ year contracts in general but if you are going to make them, make them to your own players or FAs. Don't give up the farm to do so.
 

moondog80

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Sure, but it also extends the pool of destinations to teams that hope to compete next year, but aren't going to now. That includes the Red Sox, Giants, and maybe White Sox. In general this type of deal works better in the offseason. If you're trading away the farm, you'd like to have some other deals lined up to fill in the team around Soto.
There's already a bunch of bidders; I'd think getting only 2 cracks at a ring as opposed to 3 will have a bigger impact on the price than having say, 9 teams in the mix as opposed to 6. And I think the Nats know this and will either take the highest offer now or see if they catch lightning in a bottle next year with a bunch of one year deals , like the 2021 Red Sox.
 

Max Power

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And why does that involve waiting? Will the FAs be different if the Sox trade for Soto now? I'd argue trading for him now would give the team more time to focus on FA signings.
Yes, some of the free agents will sign extensions between now and the end of the exclusive bargaining period with their old team, so they will be different. And you can't reach out to anyone right now to judge their interest in signing. If you traded your top SS and 1B prospects, it would be helpful to know if there are options available to fill those roles.

I also wouldn't sign Soto to a 15 year deal at mega money, but a 10 year deal will probably be worth it. It would be very surprising if he weren't good for the next 7-8 seasons. It's easier to eat 20-30% of a contract than 50%.
 

Rovin Romine

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I was thinking mainly free agents.
Which ones did you have in mind? https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/free-agents/

C-
1B-
2B- Story
SS -
3B - Devers (FA 2024)
RF - Soto
CF -
LF - Verdugo
DH -
UT - Arroyo

SP: Sale, Paxton, Pivetta, Whitlock, Crawford
RP: Houck, Schrieber, Barnes, Diekman, Brasier, Sawamura

Payroll for the above is something like $80m, not counting Soto. Give yourself a generous $160m. Go build a FA team. Just make sure Soto is the highest AAV player in the game.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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RF - Soto $40M
SS - Bogaerts $28M
1B - Josh Bell $14M
C - Vazquez $12M
CF - Kike $10M
OF/DH - Joc Pederson $10M
SP - Eovaldi $20M
Total = $144M

I wouldn't go over two years on anyone but Bogaerts and Soto.

And yes, I realize that Scherzer still has a higher AAV, but it's a short term deal and hardly the same.
 

Rovin Romine

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Might want to double check those #s, RR. Doesn’t look like you are counting arbitration amounts for Devers, Verdugo, Arroyo, etc.
Very true.

I also didn't go very far down into the bullpen, and just kind of assumed "the farm" was wiped out in a Soto trade. (That generously does not include the Soto trade including ML talent like Whitlock, Houck, or Crawford.)

But I think it works as a first-cut, back-of-the-envelope pass to see if this sort of thing is remotely possible or not.

I'm honestly curious to see if a team could be built entirely out of FAs this year given a ballpark estimate of the Sox budget and the market prices.

(The next pass would be more particular numbers and the likelihood of such a team being assembled - given bidding wars, getting scooped by other clubs or via extensions, players preferring to stay on the west coast, etc., etc.)

CF - Kike $10M
I'd be guessing he'd be available for less.
 

Rovin Romine

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Possibly. I was trying to err on the high side for all of them, particularly if going with a higher AAV would shorten the years. If they were to end up taking less, all the better.
Good point. And there should be a little fudge-factor in there as well.

At this point I think on paper a competitive FA club might be possible.

But if it's really a "no farm, short-cycle FA, GFIN" approach we'd certainly want to shore up the pitching and get some injury depth as well. Can that be done while roughly hitting the budget target? The bullpen certainly.

The rotation and depth I'm less certain of. It's a GFIN club still heavily relies on Sale and Paxton delivering good seasons, Hernandez (or other) recovering, Story's wrist healing, etc.

Maybe like 2013, nearly everything comes up in terms of FA prime performances. . .but that year we also cycled through Bailey and Hanrahan before landing on Uehara. We also had the depth to trade Iglesias for pitching help.
 

chawson

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The real question is whether you care about the 6 other free agents we'll have to moderately overpay to be competitive for a year or two before those free agents decline. Because we might have gutted the farm in the process.

As I said, it all depends on the deal. But from what I'm hearing, Soto's cost will be prohibitive. In a real-world sense.
I hear this argument, but I don't quite buy that we'd have to supplement the team with half a dozen market-rate free agents to stay competitive. Or if we do, it would look any different from what we already do (Wacha, Hill, Paxton, Strahm, Diekman, Sawamura). Two of the three untouchable hitting prospects were acquired through the Sox typical draft slot, the late first round. Our two best pitching prospects (Bello, Gonzalez) were through IFAs. I don't see why Bloom couldn't restock the farm the same way he has the last two years.

Here's a hypothetical path:

- Trade JDM and Vaz to the Mets. Maybe you get Vientos and Dominic Smith, maybe you get David Peterson and Smith. Either is considered by BTV as a mild overpay by the Mets, so maybe we throw someone of modest value.
- Trade Verdugo (16.2 BTV) somewhere for commensurate value. It seems plausible that the Braves might do it given their outfield situation, and I'd ask for SS prospect Vaughn Grissom, Mike Soroka and Eddie Rosario (1/$9M in 2023). That trade is considered by BTV as an overpay by the Sox.
- Trade Eovaldi and Schreiber to the Phillies for Logan O'Hoppe and Scott Kingery ($7.25 AAV through '24). That deal is considered by BTV a mild overpay for the Sox.
- Acquire Soto and Corbin, offering the Nats one of Casas and Mayer and four of Grissom, O’Hoppe, Houck, Bello, Yorke, Rafaela and Duran (and Vientos, if you get him in the Mets deal).

Will all that happen in the next 27 hours? Almost certainly no. It's very complex! The broader point is to maximize returns from the JDM, Vazquez and Eovaldi deals by taking on bad contracts, and then flipping those returns in a Soto deal while absorbing Corbin's contract.

For '23, re-sign Bogaerts (6/$150), Eovaldi (2/$30) and Kiké Hernandez (1/$8) to play CF. Sign Narvaez (2/$10) to split catcher duties with one of our prospects and McCutchen (1/$10) to DH. Use Corbin as the world's most expensive swingman. The 2023 team would be pricey -- roughly $275-280 million, but we wouldn't have any departing free agents we'd offer QOs, so the hit would only be financial. Then about $40-50M comes off the books in 2024 (Barnes, Brasier, Diekman and the JBJ buyout -- and in this hypothetical Rosario*, Hernández* and McCutchen*) allowing us to reset under the $237M CBT threshold. Another $100M comes off the books (Sale and Pivetta, and in this hypothetical Eovaldi*, Corbin*, Narvaez*, Duvall*, Kingery*, Soroka*) in 2025.

The commitments in 2025 would be Soto, Devers, Bogaerts, Story and Whitlock, at roughly $115M. Right now, the Angels have $99M in 2025 payroll commitments; the Padres, Phillies and Yankees have around $88-92. The Dodgers have around $70 (but that'll increase when they sign Trea Turner and/or Ohtani). But we'd still have whichever of the above prospects didn't go in the Soto deal, plus Bleis.
 

teddywingman

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I would not trade Vázquez. I think he is an underrated player, especially since he appears to be a decent 1B, with some legit pop.

Obviously not a piece that you build around, but more difficult to replace than most players.
 

amfox1

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I would not trade Vázquez. I think he is an underrated player, especially since he appears to be a decent 1B, with some legit pop.

Obviously not a piece that you build around, but more difficult to replace than most players.
So, are you giving him a QO or are you letting him walk for no compensation at the end of the season?
 

Cesar Crespo

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I hear this argument, but I don't quite buy that we'd have to supplement the team with half a dozen market-rate free agents to stay competitive. Or if we do, it would look any different from what we already do (Wacha, Hill, Paxton, Strahm, Diekman, Sawamura). Two of the three untouchable hitting prospects were acquired through the Sox typical draft slot, the late first round. Our two best pitching prospects (Bello, Gonzalez) were through IFAs. I don't see why Bloom couldn't restock the farm the same way he has the last two years.

Here's a hypothetical path:

- Trade JDM and Vaz to the Mets. Maybe you get Vientos and Dominic Smith, maybe you get David Peterson and Smith. Either is considered by BTV as a mild overpay by the Mets, so maybe we throw someone of modest value.
- Trade Verdugo (16.2 BTV) somewhere for commensurate value. It seems plausible that the Braves might do it given their outfield situation, and I'd ask for SS prospect Vaughn Grissom, Mike Soroka and Eddie Rosario (1/$9M in 2023). That trade is considered by BTV as an overpay by the Sox.
- Trade Eovaldi and Schreiber to the Phillies for Logan O'Hoppe and Scott Kingery ($7.25 AAV through '24). That deal is considered by BTV a mild overpay for the Sox.


- Acquire Soto and Corbin, offering the Nats one of Casas and Mayer and four of Grissom, O’Hoppe, Houck, Bello, Yorke, Rafaela and Duran (and Vientos, if you get him in the Mets deal).

But we'd still have whichever of the above prospects didn't go in the Soto deal, plus Bleis.

So you are ok with us continuing what we do now as long as it has Soto and Devers?
Casas was acquired in 2018
Bello 2017
Mayer 2021
Gonzalez 2018


People really, really understate how long it takes to rebuild a farm system and how much Bloom actually had to do with it, for that matter. He didn't restock the entire farm system in 2 years. The Sox top 6 prospects on soxprospects.com were all acquired in different years, dating back to 2016 and most were in place when Bloom took over.

Also, how often does BTV update their values? I really doubt the Braves would be jumping at the prospect of trading Grissom+ for Verdugo. He's their number 1 prospect, you know that right? Sure, make that deal if it's actually available. I'm sure plenty of people here would line up to take Verdugo to the airport. The Logan O'Hoppe deal I could see happening.

And the team isn't getting Soto without Mayer and Casas. I guess if they actually got Grissom for Verdugo, yeah. Grissom is far closer to Mayer than the group you are lumping him in with.

Yeah, it would be really easy to restock a farm when you can make WEEI fan trades.

If the team did manage to heist the Braves, Yorke (.231/.298/.348 in 242 PA) and Duran definitely wouldn't be picked. Casas wouldn't be either (over Mayer). So they'd be left with Casas, Yorke, Duran, probably Houck and if they got Vientos, one of him, Rafaela or Bello. Duran and Houck aren't prospects so while it's talent, they are something else.

Casas
Yorke
One of Bello/Rafaela/Vientos
Bleis

Probably mid range as far as farm systems go. But you aren't getting Grissom for Verdugo and you aren't getting Soto without Mayer and Casas.
 

Rovin Romine

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Here's a hypothetical path:
At the end of the day it's a very speculative conversation. I'm sure a hypothetical path is there, but the problem with most of those types of scenarios is that they requires a number of things to break correctly for the Sox. So, when you step back from that and consider it in real-time flow of decision making, certain paths become very unlikely.

For example, the assumption would be the Sox can trade for Soto (at some point), then extend Soto. Neither may happen.

So should they approach this trading deadline as though both will? What if they're offered a good RF candidate in today's round of proposals? Do they say no? Or should they seek 1B bat because there's a possibility they might trade for Soto in the off-season and Casas will be a small part of the price?
 

Daniel_Son

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So you are ok with us continuing what we do now as long as it has Soto and Devers?
Casas was acquired in 2018
Bello 2017
Mayer 2021
Gonzalez 2018


People really, really understate how long it takes to rebuild a farm system and how much Bloom actually had to do with it, for that matter. He didn't restock the entire farm system in 2 years. The Sox top 6 prospects on soxprospects.com were all acquired in different years, dating back to 2016 and most were in place when Bloom took over.

Also, how often does BTV update their values? I really doubt the Braves would be jumping at the prospect of trading Grissom+ for Verdugo. He's their number 1 prospect, you know that right? Sure, make that deal if it's actually available. I'm sure plenty of people here would line up to take Verdugo to the airport. The Logan O'Hoppe deal I could see happening.

And the team isn't getting Soto without Mayer and Casas. I guess if they actually got Grissom for Verdugo, yeah. Grissom is far closer to Mayer than the group you are lumping him in with.

Yeah, it would be really easy to restock a farm when you can make WEEI fan trades.

If the team did manage to heist the Braves, Yorke (.231/.298/.348 in 242 PA) and Duran definitely wouldn't be picked. Casas wouldn't be either (over Mayer). So they'd be left with Casas, Yorke, Duran, probably Houck and if they got Vientos, one of him, Rafaela or Bello. Duran and Houck aren't prospects so while it's talent, they are something else.

Casas
Yorke
One of Bello/Rafaela/Vientos
Bleis

Probably mid range as far as farm systems go. But you aren't getting Grissom for Verdugo and you aren't getting Soto without Mayer and Casas.
I don't disagree with your overall point about how long it takes to build a farm system, but from my count on SoxProspects, here's who drafted our top 30:
  1. Mayer - Bloom (2021)
  2. Casas - Dombrowski (2018)
  3. Bello - Dombrowski (2017)
  4. Yorke - Bloom (2020)
  5. Walter - Dombrowski (2019)
  6. Mata - Dombrowski (2016)
  7. Bleis - Bloom (2021)
  8. Rafaela - Dombrowski (2017)
  9. Winckowski - Bloom (2021)
  10. Murphy - Dombrowski (2019)
  11. Seabold - Bloom (2020)
  12. Paulino - Dombrowski (2018)
  13. Gonzalez - Dombrowski (2018)
  14. Jordan - Bloom (2020)
  15. Lugo - Dombrowski (2019)
  16. Groome - Dombrowski (2016)
  17. Binelas - Bloom (2021)
  18. Wong - Bloom (2020)
  19. Hickey - Bloom (2021)
  20. Ward - Dombrowski (2018)
  21. Downs - Bloom (2020)
  22. Jimenez - Dombrowski (2017)
  23. Crawford - Dombrowski (2017)
  24. McDonough - Bloom (2021)
  25. Fitzgerald - Dombrowski (2018)
  26. Bonaci - Dombrowski (2018)
  27. German - Bloom (2021)
  28. Drohan - Bloom (2020)
  29. Kavadas - Bloom (2021)
  30. Koss - Bloom (2020)
So it's an even split between Dom and Bloom. The fact that Bloom is responsible for 15 of our top 30 prospects in 2 years is pretty incredible, considering we still fielded a competitive MLB team last year.
 

ookami7m

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I don't disagree with your overall point about how long it takes to build a farm system, but from my count on SoxProspects, here's who drafted our top 30:
  1. Mayer - Bloom (2021)
  2. Casas - Dombrowski (2018)
  3. Bello - Dombrowski (2017)
  4. Yorke - Bloom (2020)
  5. Walter - Dombrowski (2019)
  6. Mata - Dombrowski (2016)
  7. Bleis - Bloom (2021)
  8. Rafaela - Dombrowski (2017)
  9. Winckowski - Bloom (2021)
  10. Murphy - Dombrowski (2019)
  11. Seabold - Bloom (2020)
  12. Paulino - Dombrowski (2018)
  13. Gonzalez - Dombrowski (2018)
  14. Jordan - Bloom (2020)
  15. Lugo - Dombrowski (2019)
  16. Groome - Dombrowski (2016)
  17. Binelas - Bloom (2021)
  18. Wong - Bloom (2020)
  19. Hickey - Bloom (2021)
  20. Ward - Dombrowski (2018)
  21. Downs - Bloom (2020)
  22. Jimenez - Dombrowski (2017)
  23. Crawford - Dombrowski (2017)
  24. McDonough - Bloom (2021)
  25. Fitzgerald - Dombrowski (2018)
  26. Bonaci - Dombrowski (2018)
  27. German - Bloom (2021)
  28. Drohan - Bloom (2020)
  29. Kavadas - Bloom (2021)
  30. Koss - Bloom (2020)
So it's an even split between Dom and Bloom. The fact that Bloom is responsible for 15 of our top 30 prospects in 2 years is pretty incredible, considering we still fielded a competitive MLB team last year.
With Dombrowski having 4 drafts to 3 for Bloom - so edge Bloom.
 

Cesar Crespo

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I guess Keith Law has Grissom ranked 59th on his mid season lists today. What am I missing with Grissom? 11.9% K%? 8.7% BB%. Plus runner, great hitter for contact? Not a huge ceiling but borderline star? I mean, I guess borderline line star isn't a huge ceiling. I get the lack of pop and he might have to be moved at SS but that seems to be focusing on the wrong thing.

59. Vaughn Grissom, SS, Atlanta
Previous ranking: Unranked

Atlanta’s 11th-round pick in 2019 — the year the organization went hog-wild after the 10th round and signed a bunch of promising high school players to above-slot bonuses in the $200,000 to $600,000 range — Grissom hit .312/.404/.487 in High A this year before a July promotion to Double A, where he’s continued to rake. He’s a plus runner and a great hitter for contact, but may not have a ton of pop and probably moves off shortstop. He doesn’t have a huge ceiling but has established himself as a likely regular who could be a borderline star.
 

Cesar Crespo

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? A lot of these guys were IFAs or acquired by trade.
Top of the list matters a lot more too and 4 of the top 6 were DD. One could argue Bloom was gifted Mayer as well. I give him credit, he still had to draft him.

Still, rebuilding a farm takes some time. The team probably isn't lucking into two top 20 prospects in a year or getting a top 4 pick again. Though the lottery changes things. Especially this year if the team sells off players and moves down the rankings, though there's a lot of drek out there.