Red Sox in season discussion

Ganthem

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I like a lot of this plan in theory. I think the injuries to Sixto Sánchez have dimmed his outlook quite a bit, so I don’t know if he’d be my target. He’s now a 40+ FV guy, the 15th-ranked in the Marlins system. He seems like a distressed asset roughly similar to Jay Groome, who I don’t want to pencil in as our fourth starter next year.

Man, it’s a fascinating alt-historical timeline to wonder how the last eight years might have gone had Cherington bid just a little bit more for Jose Abreu than he did. I’d be very happy with him at DH, but I kind of see him hanging in Chicago until he’s done.

What’s the current projection for Ronaldo Hernández? After a terrible start, he has a 151 wRC+ in his last 50 games since May 21. I like Narvaez, but I wouldn’t be shocked if we grabbed Contreras with so much money available, especially if we’ve got any QO picks from our newly departed.
There might not be a pitcher out there that is fits the bill, but the Sox do need a front line starter. Even if Sale and Paxton come back and form a lethal one two punch for a bit, they are almost guaranteed to go on the DL at some point. Ideally you would roll into next year with
Sale
Paxton
Pivetta
Whitlock
Pitcher X
That would leave Winchowski and Crawford as depth with Bello not far behind. Off the top of my head though I can't think of a true ace who would be available.
 

nvalvo

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Take a look at the current Worcester roster. With Duran, Refsyder, Yolmer Sanchez, and Jaylin Davis all in Boston, they don't really have a full complement of position players, and none of them are a real CF. I don't think this means we'll see Santana in Boston, so much as they just need guys to fill out that roster so they don't wear anyone out.

They just acquired Abraham Almonte for cash — same idea.
 

chawson

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There might not be a pitcher out there that is fits the bill, but the Sox do need a front line starter. Even if Sale and Paxton come back and form a lethal one two punch for a bit, they are almost guaranteed to go on the DL at some point. Ideally you would roll into next year with
Sale
Paxton
Pivetta
Whitlock
Pitcher X
That would leave Winchowski and Crawford as depth with Bello not far behind. Off the top of my head though I can't think of a true ace who would be available.
This is why I like the Paxton deal. There’s a decent shot at a frontline pitcher at only minimal money risk.

Zach Eflin is a guy who’s seemed pre-breakout for a few years. He’s got an odd $15M mutual option next year that seems doubtful both parties pick up. He’s hurt with a knee injury now but I wouldn’t be surprised if Bloom brought him in this winter.

Otherwise, I agree - there aren’t many arms. Musgrove is probably my top FA target this offseason but it sounds like he wants to stay in San Diego.

It’s not the way the wind is blowing but I honestly like bringing back Eovaldi too. He’s third all of MLB in K/BB over ‘21-22. He doesn’t have the shine of an ace and there is some injury risk, but I think we might really regret him playing elsewhere the next few years.
 

Ganthem

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This is why I like the Paxton deal. There’s a decent shot at a frontline pitcher at only minimal money risk.

Zach Eflin is a guy who’s seemed pre-breakout for a few years. He’s got an odd $15M mutual option next year that seems doubtful both parties pick up. He’s hurt with a knee injury now but I wouldn’t be surprised if Bloom brought him in this winter.

Otherwise, I agree - there aren’t many arms. Musgrove is probably my top FA target this offseason but it sounds like he wants to stay in San Diego.

It’s not the way the wind is blowing but I honestly like bringing back Eovaldi too. He’s third all of MLB in K/BB over ‘21-22. He doesn’t have the shine of an ace and there is some injury risk, but I think we might really regret him playing elsewhere the next few years.
I am torn on Evoldi. My concern is that someone is willing to give him four years and honestly I don't think Bloom should go beyond two or three years for him.
 

BaseballJones

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By the way, Dalbec's last 48 games: 9 hr (1 hr every 14.7 ab), 21 rbi, .242/.301/.485/.786

Those power numbers would project to 29 homers and 67 rbi over 154 games.

That's not great, but if he hit like that all year long consistently, we'd really not all be so frustrated with him at first base. That would be perfectly acceptable for a 7th place hitter making league minimum. Of course, it would help if other guys (Verdugo, Kiké, JBJ, and Story) were producing too.
 

moondog80

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This is why I like the Paxton deal. There’s a decent shot at a frontline pitcher at only minimal money risk.

Zach Eflin is a guy who’s seemed pre-breakout for a few years. He’s got an odd $15M mutual option next year that seems doubtful both parties pick up. He’s hurt with a knee injury now but I wouldn’t be surprised if Bloom brought him in this winter.

Otherwise, I agree - there aren’t many arms. Musgrove is probably my top FA target this offseason but it sounds like he wants to stay in San Diego.

It’s not the way the wind is blowing but I honestly like bringing back Eovaldi too. He’s third all of MLB in K/BB over ‘21-22. He doesn’t have the shine of an ace and there is some injury risk, but I think we might really regret him playing elsewhere the next few years.
Is the plan for Paxton still md-August?
 

Cesar Crespo

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By the way, Dalbec's last 48 games: 9 hr (1 hr every 14.7 ab), 21 rbi, .242/.301/.485/.786

Those power numbers would project to 29 homers and 67 rbi over 154 games.

That's not great, but if he hit like that all year long consistently, we'd really not all be so frustrated with him at first base. That would be perfectly acceptable for a 7th place hitter making league minimum. Of course, it would help if other guys (Verdugo, Kiké, JBJ, and Story) were producing too.
First 27 of those 48: .274/.333/.480, .340 BAbip. 81 PA, 7bb/23k. 28.4% K%.
Last 20 games prior to last night: .179/.246/.375, .292 BAbip. 61 PA, 5bb/29k. 47.6% K%.
Last 21 games: .203/.262/.492, .280 BAbip. 65 PA, 5bb/30k. 46.1% K%.

Hopefully last night was the start of a new stretch because the last 20 were ass.
 

absintheofmalaise

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Is the plan for Paxton still md-August?
It looks like it based on this from 7/8.

LHP James Paxton (Tommy John surgery)
Expected return:
August
Slowly but surely, Paxton is gaining momentum in his quest to return by August. He has been throwing two to three bullpen sessions per week and hopes to face hitters soon.
"He started throwing the breaking ball on flat ground, the bullpens had been fastball, changeup. This week he started throwing breaking balls, that will be part of whatever we do next week in his preparation," said Red Sox manager Alex Cora. "So far so good. You can tell he’s in a good spot. Mechanics wise his stuff, it’s just a matter of just being patient and he should be OK." (Last updated: July 8)
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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Paxton still isn’t facing live batters, though, right? Then he’s going to need some rehab starts. The original timetable was rehab assignment in July, and a return by mid-August, so it seems like he’s behind that schedule now.
 

A Bad Man

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Is the plan for Paxton still md-August?
From the Paxton thread:
A July 9th AP article in the WaPo mentioned that Paxton had progressed to throwing breaking pitches on flat ground; if we align this with the first of the aforementioned throwing programs, that would put Paxton at four weeks from a rehab assignment (given one week off for the ASB); assuming a similar rehab to Sale (5 starts, no setbacks), that would have Paxton eight weeks from making his first start of the season.

Note that this timeline also aligns with Paxton's hope of throwing live BP the week before or after the ASB (after the ASB, in this case).

All this being said, Paxton is still on target for an early September return, potentially @TB (9/5-9/7) or @BAL (9/9-9/11).
 

scottyno

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By the way, Dalbec's last 48 games: 9 hr (1 hr every 14.7 ab), 21 rbi, .242/.301/.485/.786

Those power numbers would project to 29 homers and 67 rbi over 154 games.

That's not great, but if he hit like that all year long consistently, we'd really not all be so frustrated with him at first base. That would be perfectly acceptable for a 7th place hitter making league minimum. Of course, it would help if other guys (Verdugo, Kiké, JBJ, and Story) were producing too.
Yeah, despite the fact that everyone on here wants him gone and expects him to suck every time he's in the lineup he's been fine since his horrid start.

.4 fwar and a 107 wrc+ over his last 60 games, which covers 180 PAs.
Before that he managed to put up a putrid wrc+ of 27 and and -.7 fwar in 28 games 91 PAs

Franchy is the real problem, because he can't field and can't hit anymore
 

Cesar Crespo

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Yeah, despite the fact that everyone on here wants him gone and expects him to suck every time he's in the lineup he's been fine since his horrid start.

.4 fwar and a 107 wrc+ over his last 60 games, which covers 180 PAs.
Before that he managed to put up a putrid wrc+ of 27 and and -.7 fwar in 28 games 91 PAs

Franchy is the real problem, because he can't field and can't hit anymore
In the month of July, Dalbec has 4bb/29k in 63 PA. He has put the ball in play 25 times during that stretch and has 7 hits in those 25 At bats for a .280 BAbip. 1 of those hits being a triple. He also has 5 HRs (balls not in play).

Fair contact would be 25 ab+5 (HR At bats). So if he makes fair contact, 5/30 times it's a HR. 7/30 times it's a hit, 18/30 times it's an out.

I don't know what any of that actually mean, I just found it interesting. I do know a 46% K% rate isn't going to cut it but it's 63 PA.
 

sean1562

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Also, I don't know if a 1.1 fWAR pace when he is "good" is really fine for a team with playoff aspirations. If you ignore the last month or so that Francy has been terrible his stats aren't that bad either. The problem is that neither has shown they are capable of sustained stretches of competence. Bobby Dalbec, in his career, has been worth 1.0 fWAR and -0.1 bWAR in 246 games and 820 PAs. If he has another torrid second half, great, but he isn't a major league starter on a team with championship aspirations unless that team has prime JDM, Mookie Betts, and Xander Bogaerts anchoring the lineup.
 

Max Power

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Jed Zeppelin

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Also, I don't know if a 1.1 fWAR pace when he is "good" is really fine for a team with playoff aspirations. If you ignore the last month or so that Francy has been terrible his stats aren't that bad either. The problem is that neither has shown they are capable of sustained stretches of competence. Bobby Dalbec, in his career, has been worth 1.0 fWAR and -0.1 bWAR in 246 games and 820 PAs. If he has another torrid second half, great, but he isn't a major league starter on a team with championship aspirations unless that team has prime JDM, Mookie Betts, and Xander Bogaerts anchoring the lineup.
Yeah, the horrid stretches aren't coincidental, he is always going to have them because he sucks at making contact with baseballs thrown by professional pitchers. And even if you had the bolded, it's simply bad roster construction anyways to have a 1B be one of your worst hitters. He's 36th out of 43 in fWAR over the last two years amongst 1B with >500AB. He is bottom barrel at basically everything you would want from a 1B and only looks average if you squint at just the power stats. He's also 27. It ain't getting better. He doesn't even rate well on defense either.
 

simplicio

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For those advocating trading Eovaldi, what sort of return are we expecting from the rental of a guy rocking a shiny 11.08 ERA since coming off the IL?
 

amfox1

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For those advocating trading Eovaldi, what sort of return are we expecting from the rental of a guy rocking a shiny 11.08 ERA since coming off the IL?
One 45 FV prospect and one lower-tier prospect. A GM fixated only on the three starts post-IL and not on the entire package likely isn't making a call to BOS to trade for Eovaldi. Luckily, most front office types can make an assessment that isn't solely based on three starts and isn't solely based on ERA.
 

jon abbey

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One 45 FV prospect and one lower-tier prospect. A GM fixated only on the three starts post-IL and not on the entire package likely isn't making a call to BOS to trade for Eovaldi. Luckily, most front office types can make an assessment that isn't solely based on three starts and isn't solely based on ERA.
His velocity is down a few MPH recently also.
 

simplicio

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He's clearly not right since coming back and his numbers reflect that; so does a front office give up real value for 3 months of a starter who has a good track record but currently looks broken?
 

StuckOnYouk

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After seeing the return for Castillo, I’d be fine shopping some of our players. Prices are very high.
Also a bonus of having three wild card teams per league - a lot more teams are buyers. I love Bogaerts, but DAMN I think we could get a good package for him, even if he is just a rental.
 

scottyno

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Castillo is much better than Eovaldi if they were both at their best, Castillo right now is at his best and Eovaldi isn't even close to at his best, so if someone offers a package even close to that you have to jump at it, but I find it hard to see that happening.
 

StuckOnYouk

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Castillo is much better than Eovaldi if they were both at their best, Castillo right now is at his best and Eovaldi isn't even close to at his best, so if someone offers a package even close to that you have to jump at it, but I find it hard to see that happening.
You're not getting anything close to a Castillo package for Eovaldi. But you could still get an interesting package for him I'd think considering the number of buyers out there. I believe Eovaldi pitches on Monday. One day before the trade deadline. If he's still on the roster, I'd imagine there will be several teams watching that start intently.
 

OCD SS

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First Danny “Power-and-Speed” Santana, now Peraza. I hope that Zack Godley is willing to give up the gig at Chez Paul so that Chaim can get the band back together.
This looks like laying the groundwork if Chaim wants to have a fire sale and just needs minimum salary bodies to call up to fill the roster for August-September.
 

Harry Hooper

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McAdam with a key observation:

Of their remaining 62 games, 36 are against teams in the East -- six with Toronto, nine with Tampa Bay, 10 with the Yankees and 11 with Baltimore.

To date, the Red Sox are a woeful 12-29 combined against those four teams. And just holding their own going forward won't cut it. Even if the Sox could play .500 against their rivals in those 36 games -- a dramatic improvement -- they would need to go 22-4 in their other 26 to get to the 90-win plateau.

BTW, Davis was used as the opener last night. Is this a strategic decision that Cora will use more from here on, or was it a showcase of Davis vs. the top of the order to set up a trade?
 
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absintheofmalaise

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McAdam with a key observation:




BTW, Davis was used as the opener last night. Is this a strategic decision that Cora will use more from here on, or was it a showcase of Davis vs. the top of the order to set up a trade?
Based on how Bello did last night* following Davis I'm voting on strategy to see how Bello would do not starting, but coming in as the long guy after the opener. Of course, I could be seeing this the wrong way.

*small sample size caveat
 

E5 Yaz

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BTW, Davis was used as the opener last night. Is this a strategic decision that Cora will use more from here on, or was it a showcase of Davis vs. the top of the order to set up a trade?
They addressed this on the telecast, saying the idea was to get Bello to slow down and get in the flow of the game ... which might be why they brought him in mid-inning.
 

sean1562

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How valuable is Verdugo really if he is only willing to play LF? Are we moving into next season with him definitively penciled in as our starting LF?
 

chawson

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If we’re getting creative at the deadline, I’d explore trading Verdugo to Atlanta for prospects we could potentially flip elsewhere.

The Braves could use some outfield help. They lost outfielder Adam Duvall last week, Marcell Ozuna is not hitting, Eddie Rosario is a disaster and stopgap Corey Dickerson isn't much better. They also need to rest Acuña at DH occasionally, for obvious reasons.

I'd even offer to take back Rosario ($9M through 2023) and ask for shortstop Vaughn Grissom and starter Kyle Muller in return. The Braves have the league’s-worst farm, so I don’t know if they’d do that, but it more than works in the sim and maybe getting Rosario off the books helps them keep Swanson. (Rosario is useless to us imo but maybe he has a role).
 

Mueller's Twin Grannies

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If we’re getting creative at the deadline, I’d explore trading Verdugo to Atlanta for prospects we could potentially flip elsewhere.

The Braves could use some outfield help. They lost outfielder Adam Duvall last week, Marcell Ozuna is not hitting, Eddie Rosario is a disaster and stopgap Corey Dickerson isn't much better. They also need to rest Acuña at DH occasionally, for obvious reasons.

I'd even offer to take back Rosario ($9M through 2023) and ask for shortstop Vaughn Grissom and starter Kyle Muller in return. The Braves have the league’s-worst farm, so I don’t know if they’d do that, but it more than works in the sim and maybe getting Rosario off the books helps them keep Swanson. (Rosario is useless to us imo but maybe he has a role).
I don't know that Verdugo nets all of those players in a trade. I think Boston would have to offer a little bit more, possibly another fringe player or low level prospect, but I'm not sure they're the best trade partner for Atlanta if the Braves are looking for offense. Verdugo had a hot start but hasn't exactly been an RBI machine since.