Red Sox hook Crochet for Kyle Teel, Braden Montgomery, Chase Meidroth and Wikelman Gonzalez
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Go out and get / pay for elite talent. That is what this team has needed to do. In the span of a week they offered the largest contract in baseball history to Soto (and lost out) and then offered a really solid package of prospects for the top SP option available in MLB, all without giving up there top 3 prospects.
It’s hard for me to understand any viewpoint in here that doesn’t think this has been a terrific week so far.
It’s hard for me to understand any viewpoint in here that doesn’t think this has been a terrific week so far.
Plainly, I'd rather they spend the money extending Crochet if they feel this kind of way about him than spending it on Burnes and then not having that in the budget for Crochet if it came down to it. If they feel good enough to deal Teel and Montgomery to get two years of Crochet, spend the money to keep him here longer term to where the Sox may benefit from the prospects they didn't deal today.
But as others have mentioned, aging pitchers is a pretty risky game too. Most of your best pitchers are going to be in their 20s for most years and this market is asking teams to give contracts to the guys in their 30s that put them in their late 30s where pitchers only exceedingly rarely deliver anything more than spotty value here and there.
But as others have mentioned, aging pitchers is a pretty risky game too. Most of your best pitchers are going to be in their 20s for most years and this market is asking teams to give contracts to the guys in their 30s that put them in their late 30s where pitchers only exceedingly rarely deliver anything more than spotty value here and there.
Well, they also added Aroldis Chapman, so that's kind of a bummer.
But otherwise I agree.
Yeah, I agree. Teel hasn't played a single major league game yet. He might never hit in AAA. Abreu has actually proved he has the stuff.
And I think people will come around to this. @John Marzano Olympic Hero has already done so. The kneejerk anger with the FO has been a little bit much for quite a while, and I wasn't surprised to see the usual suspects blowing up over this because the FO still hasn't "spent money." But hey, we're all gonna get to enjoy watching this guy pitch.
It'd be even better with someone either between Crochet and Houck, or between Houck and Bello.
Yeah, I get that. But that consensus applied to the whole market until deals started getting made really. Fried was going to get 5 years. Soto's first reported demand of 700m no deferrals came from a different dimension.
Economics are just drunk now.
I think that Abreu vs. Teel is debatable. On one hand Abreu is a major leaguer who won a Gold Glove his first year and hit righties pretty well. Teel is a highly drafted player who blazed through the minor leagues at a much tougher (and more important) position.
Is Abreu a JAG who might be out of his outfield job in less than six months? Is Teel's minor league mastery a mirage? Maybe Abreu keeps his job, gets better and Duran or Anthony is the one traded? Maybe Teel steps up this year, takes the opportunity of playing on a shit team and establishes himself as a Chicago cornerstone for 15 years.
All of this could happen, some of this could happen, none of this could happen. But gun to my head, I think losing Teel is worse than losing Abreu.
But I'd still do this deal.
I have been begging for a legit ace for years. To win a WS a team really needs two them. Let's get uncomfortable, add 1 more stud , a true closer and a rh bat. We then have a legit shot.
I've come to the conclusion that baseball reporting is generally shit. The Mets allegedly weren't serious contenders for Soto until the last day. The Red Sox were "just on the periphery" of Crochet talks. The Twitter noise can go straight in the garbage without news of an actual deal.
The fact that Crotchet has had a full healthy effective season post TJS is encouraging that his previous surgery was a success and no major red flags there.
As far as moving forward, I don't think you can say it's better to have had it and recovered than to just never have had it at all.
About 35% of MLB pitchers have had TJS so it's still more likely to never need one. And probably better not to have a major elbow issue than to have had one, something about his mechanics seems to be a risk there. A much smaller % have had it twice, but plenty have. Part of that is just the long recovery process, many pitchers don't have long careers in general, etc.
Long story short, I wouldnt stress it too much but I also don't look at it as a positive that he already had his TJS.
Is there any one move that would get the Sox into the playoffs? Of course they still need to do more. It's December, plenty of time for another SP and a RHH. And still well below the cap plus a surplus of LHH OF.
Yeah. Give me the farm system of (any team) catchers who are rated in even the top 200. Sox got a GLUT of talented outfielders, yet they trade a highly rated catching prospect for an EXTREMELY unproven pitcher. Glad the team has no one with a clue at the heon….
Teel is the one who's unproven here. He hasn't even shown he can hit in AAA yet.
Crochet has shown he can pitch in the major leagues at the highest level.
I get the concerns about Crochet but this is flat-out backwards. We have no idea what CWS asked for. We may have offered Mayer or Abreu and they may have said no. You're making a lot of assumptions.
I think he’s gonna sign an extension. He seems eager. If they get this extension out of him…. It goes from a good deal to an amazing one
View: https://twitter.com/hotstoveintel/status/1866949181828399524?s=46
View: https://twitter.com/hotstoveintel/status/1866949181828399524?s=46
Again, early on in the offseason someone posted something from the SoxProspects pod where one of the mods said that he had heard that Crochet would require two of the "top 6" (Anthony, Mayer, Campbell, Teel, Montgomery, Abreu).
Literally everyone who responded said that it was an overpay. People saying that this is too much, or more than they expected, has absolutely nothing to do with kneejerk anger. This was more than anyone expected. You can like it or not like it but I 100% disagree that this is some sort of coordinated reaction because people dont like the FO. Thats absurd
From what my brother-in-law's Doordash driver told him, the White Sox wanted Yoshida and Mickey Gasper, but the Sox balked.
His b-ref site says he has 3.028 service time. Do the Sox control him for 2 or 3 years? Says he’s eligible for arb in 27.
Edit: shit, the 3.028 was pre-2024 season. NVM.
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The cascading effects of this will be huge. Crawford/Bello, guys who are very solid, are now your 4s and 5s. Criswell, Priester, and Fitts are all depth -- good depth, I might add. You can add another starting pitcher or not and you're still in a better position with Crochet as Pivetta's replacement.
AND we can assume Whitlock will be headed to the pen, so there's your Chris Martin replacement.
AND we can assume Whitlock will be headed to the pen, so there's your Chris Martin replacement.
If it had been Anthony or Campbell plus Abreu, I'd get it. But Teel is, IMO, the worst of the big four, and Montgomery hasn't even played in the pros yet.
And I'm not referring to people saying it's too much. I get that. It's the people who are saying the FO is cheap because they didn't just buy Fried or Burnes.
My argument, again, is that Fried or Burnes are worse burnout candidates as Crochet because they're in their 30's. They may stay healthy, but pitchers in their 30's tend to decline in performance.
And then I've pointed to all of the examples of the Sox acquiring great young pitchers -- Beckett, Pedro, Sale, etc.--and how well that has worked out for us. I mean, Crochet is one of the youngest of that group. Sale was already 28. Beckett and Pedro were both 25.
Now they also had longer track records of success, but there's no denying that Crochet has the stuff to succeed.
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Early in the offseason we didn't have evidence that the market would be this high. The last week we've learned that it is. Things changed.
This is all reasonable. Both players have major league floors, and both players have upsides as two-way everyday contributors. Abreu has shown more at the major league level; Teel still has all of his service time remaining and plays a position that is super scarce in the majors right now. If Abreu does better against lefties going forward, he could be a beast. If Teel can reach his ceiling as a plus-glove 100 OPS+ catcher, that's a super valuable player.
BTV has Abreu at ~29 and Teel at ~32, which seems consistent with what we're both saying.
There was not one single report asserting tat the Mets weren't serious contenders for Soto, and there have been numerous reports about the Red Sox and Crochet, going back months.
Perhaps this is just what the market required in payment and it was not an overpay at all.
Do we have to explain, again, that a trade partner has to want who you're offering? Clearly the White Sox didn't want any of the "GLUT of talented outfielders" besides the one who's in the trade.
There are far too many people who seem to think that the goal of a trade is to trick the other party into making a sub-par deal.
wow. I thought you guys understood the cost of elite SP that is controllable, but I guess not. You can’t get a Crochet type pitcher for Abreu, Meidroth and Wikelman. There was a team that pulled out of talks because the Chi Sox asked for 3 of their top 4 prospects. We gave them our #4 & 5. Yes, it’s painful, but I still love it because we addressed a major need, held onto Anthony and Campbell (Mayer as well) and didn’t disrupt our ML core. Well done Bres, keep going.
For the same reason it's not a good idea to draft for need, it's also not a great idea to trade prospects based on need either. The catching situation is frustrating, but its much more important to have good prospects you expect to be valuable MLB guys than to have guys at the right position. You can figure it out as you go and make other trades/signings as necessary.
I think if all things are pretty equal then sure, use positional need at the big league level as a bit of a tiebreaker. Especially if it's someone you expect to contribute this year and there isn't much time to pivot.
But if they have Meyer, Campbell, and Anthony as all a clear step above Teel, better to trade your #4 rather than to worry too much about position. Time will tell if they are right on the order, but I'm OK with it.
Agreed. Abreu is 26 and Duran is 28. The White Sox are going to stink for a few years. It makes no sense for them to prefer those guys over 22 year-olds, glut or not.
I hope one of the next steps is convincing Roki Sasaki to come here too. Roki would fit their MO of young controllable pitching, he fits their timeline. A rotation with Crochet. Roki. Houck and Bello would be fun for years to come!
This would also give them young controllable talent up and down the roster when including Anthony, Duran, Abreu, Casas, Rafaela, Mayer, Campbell, Wong giving them a boatload of cash to shore up the other spots or for extensions or both.
The new philosophy is taking shape and although it is frustrating when you don't get your guy sometimes I can see the brilliance in it.
This would also give them young controllable talent up and down the roster when including Anthony, Duran, Abreu, Casas, Rafaela, Mayer, Campbell, Wong giving them a boatload of cash to shore up the other spots or for extensions or both.
The new philosophy is taking shape and although it is frustrating when you don't get your guy sometimes I can see the brilliance in it.
One other thing this does is it buys them a couple of years to determine if Perales becomes a legit stud. If after the ‘26 season he’s a top 10 prospect (unlikely but not out of the realm of possibility) that allows them some flexibility knowing they have another stud coming up.
With Crochet penciled in as the #1 and Houck a #2, this allows them to buy a #3 starter, which might make JH more comfortable. I’d love Buehler or Flaherty in that slot, and let Kutter and Giolito fight it out for the #5 slot.
I am not nearly as high on Crochet as many people here. I LOVED Teel, and like Meidroth a ton (probably more than most anyone else here, I think he will be a good major leaguer.) I've been hoping on Wikelman for a few years now. Montgomery is really super-talented.
But I still think this should be a pretty good trade, one we kind of had to make at this point. I would have REALLY rather have signed Fried or Burnes and kept Teel and Montgomery, but 8 years (Burnes might get even more) for those 31-year-old guys is just asking for real problems in the long run, so I get it.
(I still would like us to sign Burnes, but I really really doubt it will happen.)
We needed a lefty SP with real upside and Crochet is that. He is young-- younger than Bello by about a month as a matter of fact. We should extend him, and if he stays healthy he could be really good. We needed to take our shot at a starter with bigtime upside.
We now have a LOT of promising starting pitcher arms under the age of 30, more than we have had in a long time. Of the projected starters, Giolito is 30, everyone else is under. We should still have Priester, Fitts, Dobbins, and Criswell in the AAA rotation (I think Criswell still has an option?)
Obviously need to get a catcher now. (Wong's defense was terrible after June or so last year, but it wasn't that bad before that IMO. I'm hoping that maybe his new father hours contributed to his dropoff, and maybe he will get back to decent next year.) Either way, we still need to add a good defensive catcher.
At least I never got the chance to get attached to Montgomery. I will choose to think of it as we traded our first round pick in the 2024 draft, rather than we traded Braden Montgomery.
This should be a good trade for both teams.
It could have been worse for us, with the loony contracts pitchers are getting, which will only increase the demands of teams with starters to trade, so at this point I'm fine with it. We get the starter we need and still keep Anthony, Campbell, Abreu, Casas, etc.
RIP ATM though.
But I still think this should be a pretty good trade, one we kind of had to make at this point. I would have REALLY rather have signed Fried or Burnes and kept Teel and Montgomery, but 8 years (Burnes might get even more) for those 31-year-old guys is just asking for real problems in the long run, so I get it.
(I still would like us to sign Burnes, but I really really doubt it will happen.)
We needed a lefty SP with real upside and Crochet is that. He is young-- younger than Bello by about a month as a matter of fact. We should extend him, and if he stays healthy he could be really good. We needed to take our shot at a starter with bigtime upside.
We now have a LOT of promising starting pitcher arms under the age of 30, more than we have had in a long time. Of the projected starters, Giolito is 30, everyone else is under. We should still have Priester, Fitts, Dobbins, and Criswell in the AAA rotation (I think Criswell still has an option?)
Obviously need to get a catcher now. (Wong's defense was terrible after June or so last year, but it wasn't that bad before that IMO. I'm hoping that maybe his new father hours contributed to his dropoff, and maybe he will get back to decent next year.) Either way, we still need to add a good defensive catcher.
At least I never got the chance to get attached to Montgomery. I will choose to think of it as we traded our first round pick in the 2024 draft, rather than we traded Braden Montgomery.
This should be a good trade for both teams.
It could have been worse for us, with the loony contracts pitchers are getting, which will only increase the demands of teams with starters to trade, so at this point I'm fine with it. We get the starter we need and still keep Anthony, Campbell, Abreu, Casas, etc.
RIP ATM though.
This seems like a decent start. Gives the team a solid return, sets Crochet up for multiple generations and leaves him the potential for a Fried-lite payday at 32.
I assumed he’s the 4, but he could totally be still improving and become a 3.
It is easy to fixate on the dream of a talented young catcher, but there's a reason that most of the highly rated prospects at the position end up being just OK or not panning out at all. It's a tough, taxing position, and you'll generally be happier with a guy who can handle your pitching staff than a guy who can hit. To have both in one player is pretty rare and it often takes a long time for catchers to fully develop, especially on the pitching side. You don't have to get very far down the list of best catchers before you start hitting 1-2 win players and the league is an absolute graveyard of former top catching prospects.