Red Sox hook Crochet for Kyle Teel, Braden Montgomery, Chase Meidroth and Wikelman Gonzalez
- Thread starter soxhop411
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Something like $4M, $10M, $30M, $30M, $30M, $28M, $28M? Likely an opt-out after year 5, so he can hit free agency for his age 31 season rather than age 33. Seems reasonable to me.
This is pretty close to exactly what I posted right after the trade. Seems like a solid deal for both parties. The Sox make sure they get a good amount of years out of him even if one gets lost due to injury, and Crochet gets something that looks relatively close to market value, with a chance for another solid payday at the end.
I wouldn’t be afraid to front-load it some, our emerging core is a lot cheaper now than it will be in 5 years. Plus Crochet is established so it’s not weird. And he might be more eager to jump on it.
That's fair, although I suspect the Sox will try to avoid the two $28M player options at the end & offer 5yrs/$105M
Innings pitched language to trigger Year 6 & 7 options would be palatable.
I’m sure that the team would like to avoid the player options, but I doubt that the player would delay free agency for 3 years for only $105 million guaranteed. With the way this market is, he could probably get 3 years $90 million after 2026 if he had two ok but not great seasons. I think the guaranteed money number needs to start with a 2 to sign him early.
I think the elbow and shoulder problems change that. One more injury and he's Jack Flaherty searching for a deal. So I think that something like 6/170 gets the job done.
Whatever they get him for, I'll start feeling positive when they get him extended. Starting to get nervous that they aren't aligned.
6-170, assuming you're including the 2 arb years, would be one of the highest AAVs for any pitcher ever
I doubt they extend him before the offseason plays out so they can see where they are vis-a-vis the luxury tax
and 6/170 seems like an overpay given he’s ours right now for 2/15
These almost always happen in spring training.
Zero reason to extend before then. They also have the ability to extend him after his arb agreement and keep his AAV lower for ‘25 if they wish to go that route.
It’s the holidays, I’m sure everyone is happy to wait, they all have families. Spring training is the time to get it done.
There was a trend in the early 2000s to throw more Splitters. Many guys could get to the Majors and even become All Stars by adding Splitters to their arsenal but they would do it at the cost of a long career.
SoxScout on twitter had a supercut of all of Crochet's two-seamers from his last two starts.
View: https://twitter.com/redsoxstats/status/1875357918348112000
100 MPH sinkers with 18 inches of arm-side movement. He's throwing them to righties at the heart of the plate and they are ending up in the LH batters box. This is an insane pitch.
View: https://twitter.com/redsoxstats/status/1875357918348112000
100 MPH sinkers with 18 inches of arm-side movement. He's throwing them to righties at the heart of the plate and they are ending up in the LH batters box. This is an insane pitch.
View: https://twitter.com/chriscotillo/status/1877190658961895734?s=46
Very welcome update from Cotillo
Very welcome update from Cotillo
At first I was unsure why this was in the press (whose benefit was it to talk about it?) but I understand now it's because tomorrow is the arbitration deadline and Crochet is one of our arb-eligible players, along with Duran, Crawford, and Houck. Hopefully even if they just announce a 1-year agreement tomorrow, they have laid some groundwork for an extension soon.
Yep. Every single time I see that this thread has been bumped, I’m hoping it’s with news about extension talks. Feels like something that’s destined to get done with his vocally open to it Crochet has been since last year but it’s nice to finally see some real news on that front.
View: https://twitter.com/Sean_McAdam/status/1877720095486538076
McAdam this morning mostly reiterating that the Sox and Crochet have started talks, and speculating about the impact of Garrett's short career thus far on coming to a deal. But I was encouraged to read this, we heard Crochet wanted an extension if traded at last year's deadline, but it's nice to have a statement that the same held for the off-season trade:
McAdam this morning mostly reiterating that the Sox and Crochet have started talks, and speculating about the impact of Garrett's short career thus far on coming to a deal. But I was encouraged to read this, we heard Crochet wanted an extension if traded at last year's deadline, but it's nice to have a statement that the same held for the off-season trade:
McAdam goes on to say the complication is that it's hard to translate Crochet's ability into value because of his relative lack of track record.
Makes total sense.
I know none of us want this, but I could see it benefitting both parties to let him pitch for a year. It would let Garrett say "look what I can do" and it would give the sox the chance to actually see what he can do when put under a full workload, in the AL East, for a big market team. There are risks to signing the extension now on both sides.
Reminds me of when your adult child comes home in love and starts talking about marriage, to which the modern parent may reply "don't you want to just live together for a little while first?"
Seeing this picture of Garrett at Fenway just gave me the warm fuzzies. I'm a listen to the games on the radio guy but this year I may pony up.
Thing is, if he pitches great in 2025, the price goes way up. He'd be only a year away from free agency with another year of demonstrated health and ability. The calculus might even change for him that he's weathered some of the risk and it becomes preferable to just wait for free agency and an even bigger payday.
And the thing is, given the unpredictability of pitcher injuries, he could pitch great for 2025 and then still go down later. If we sign him now, the smaller contract will make any future injury somewhat easier to deal with.
If we had him for three years, maybe waiting for one would make more sense. But yeah, given the way things are I think for the team signing him is always the play, assuming he'll sign a deal commensurate with his circumstances.
If Crochet's camp is already asking him to be paid like an ace (something similar to Max Fried's contract, 8 yrs, $218, or maybe 10, $250M given his age), then yes, I agree he should prove it first this season. Breslow takes the risk that it will have to be 10, $330M next winter. But I hope Crochet accepts an offer like 8, $180M thus spring given his miniscule track record as a starter. We shall see.
I think you're a good poster, but these gloomy drive-by posts are indistinguishable from trolling and worth absolutely nothing.
WE ALL KNOW they're not spending as much as they used to, but they extended Devers for 10/300 million in January of 2023. I'm tired of people acting like that didn't happen. They're absolutely open to spending of this kind: on young exceptional players under their control.
Assuming they won't because it didn't happen as fast as you wanted to and because you're down on ownership is needlessly cynical and honestly super tiresome.
And just after a report comes out that both sides have discussed an extension and it's a priority for the team.
It's horrible. It's especially horrible when the topic of conversation is centered around an extension that is being reported as a "priority for the team" and that the player is "interested in signing a long term extension"
The reporting could not be more positive. And yet here we are....
Well when it comes to results on the field, the cynics have been right the last few years. But fair enough, it's time to leave the main board to the pollyannas and prospect humpers, I guess.
I would give Crochet Fried's contract and laugh all the way to the bank. He's five years younger and comparably talented. Paying that money for ages 26-33 instead of 31-38 is just wildly more desirable. The point of trading for a young ace isn't to save money, it's to spend the money on players more likely to perform on the field.
The lack of track record is the whole point.
If I'm negotiating with Crochet, I'm trying to get him to make a commitment now that covers his entire projected prime without committing the team to his mid- and late-30s. And I'm trying to include his remaining low-priced arb years in that deal to hold down the level of overall AAV. But his FA years (age 28-33) can absolutely be priced at or near current FA prices. The benefit the team is getting is signing an ace-tier pitcher without needing to commit to paying him when he's 37.
I doubt it's going to be structured that long. He's made very little money in his career. I am expecting a nice signing bonus. 3-4 years to be added to his current 2 years and a total value around $100mm with a club option. Never worry about money again. Hit free agency at 30.
Yeah, tend to agree. Crochet's ideal situation is to sign an extension for a big payday removing the risk that he blows out his elbow and never gets paid, but then still give himself a shot for maximizing total earnings by being Max Fried on the free agent market five years from now. He's more like to get another big contract at 30 than at 33.
I suppose one way to look at it is "If Crochet had come up in the RedSox system like Bello, Devers or Rafaela, what sort of extension would they be looking at"? (at least in terms of where the numbers might fall). That they traded for him is a distinction, but I'm not sure it should make much of a difference. He's a better "prospect" than Bello was at the time he signed.
They could do a Fried deal with opt-outs at years that resemble your idea. There really are a lot of ways to go. I'd say Yamamoto is a much better comp. It's 12/325 with 2 opt-outs. Really, it's a deal with a bonus, some light salary years, and then most $26m to $28m annually. Yamamoto as a prospect looked a lot like Crochet in terms of uncertainty but high ceiling and right age. Yes, he had more power because he was already a FA. Also Crochet has already had TJ, although that's both a pro and a con. I doubt Crochet asked for this much, particularly the length. But I am all for some number of years of him getting $26-28m.
First of all, that's not really an argument, and second of all, that's my point, dude. The "pollyannas and prospect humpers" are starting to post on the Minor League forum because this place has become such a bummer.
All of us want the Sox to spend more. I wish they had signed Soto and Fried and Bregman and Tanner Scott. Who doesn't?
The Sox have had to do a rebuild because the big contracts they signed between 2018-2022 were such disasters (from Sale to Yoshida), not because they wouldn't spend. All of us acknowledge that, and part of the reason that strategy failed was they signed guys headed into the back 9 of their career, which is precisely why so many of us only want Bregman or Alonso on short money, and would rather the limited budget (if it is limited) be spent on whoever emerges from the pack.
They're primed to win, and win for a long time, with a ton of cost-controlled talent reaching the major leagues, a elite pitcher added to the mix, and the flexibility to have young guys with tremendous pedigrees competing at multiple positions. If you can't see that, I'm sorry.
Most of the fans around the league I talk to are deeply jealous of the offseason we're having and of the team's young talent. My Phillies friend, who has nothing to complain about, was inconsolable that we got Crochet. I don't blame the Sox for waiting out the free agent market to see how these players shake out before spending big money.
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Yamamoto was a free agent. Crochet is 2 years away and will make approximately 15 million dollars the next 2 seasons.
This is a very synergistic situation. Unique
I'm sure there will be another round of kvetching when we don't land Sasaki. Crochet is our Sasaki.
Yeah, I mentioned that. That gives the Sox some leverage but not much. The flip side of Crochet telling everyone what his extension expectations are that if you fuck around with him, he will shut down the talks and your whole strategy is at risk.
It's really short sighted to try to exploit that too much, IMO. I would rather they use that leverage to get their desired term than try to milk the AAV discount too much.
I think we want his early 30s.
This is assuming that the market for 30 year old pitchers will be the same in 5 years as it is now. The Sox interest in this department seems to be waning. I imagine there are other teams out there that feel the same way. I think it's crazy risky for Crochet to think a Fried deal is going to be out there when he's 30.
The market for front end starters has never been higher. If I were him I'd be looking for my one big payday now.
Maybe. But we FOR SURE want his late twenties. If they can't get his 31-32 age seasons I will not view it as a failure at all. I think its going to be something like the following.
$7mm signing bonus
Year 1 - $4mm
Year 2 - $14mm
-----
Year 3 - $20mm
Year 4 - $20mm
Year 5 - $25mm
CLUB OPTION - $35mm
18 AAV. Hits free agency at 30 or 31.
Good structure. I might go a little higher on the dollars for my guess as to what gets it done, but whatever, get his next 5 seasons and figure the rest out later.
I don’t post on here a ton. When I do, I try to react down the middle with how I feel. If that turns out to be wrong I will say it. @John Marzano Olympic Hero had a great post in the Crochet thread about how he reacted negatively at first and became positive about it after reflection. I see that type of thing with a lot of the posters considered “negative”.
But I really have to push back on the idea that this board is super negative. I have seen a few people post this and I really couldn’t disagree more. The majority of this board is overwhelmingly positive. Maybe that makes negative posts stand out more, I don’t know. I would also add that some of the posts that are characterized as “miserable” are more cautious than anything (IE, preferring to keep Campbell and Anthony in the minor)
There are definitely some positive people that say they were wrong if things go wrong but I do think there’s a decent subset of posters that just move the goalposts in order to continue to be positive and cast aspersions on “negative” posters. I am only speaking for myself but that’s incredibly frustrating to read.
Why would he take a deal that buys out 3 years of his free agency at a really low rate while gaining him almost nothing in his 2 arb years?
I agree something like this is the most likely, at least in terms of years. I’ve always thought it would look more like 5/$125/$25m (maybe now that is 4/$100m/$25m if the 1/$4m stands alone) so I do think the dollars you have are a bit low, but anything in the general realm of him getting more than $100m guaranteed and being a FA again at age 31 is in play, at least I think.
I wouldn’t be surprised if they offered him something like you have outlined but with more like $115m guaranteed AND something like I think @chrisfont9 outlined in the 7/$160m/$23m and let him choose. It’ll get done, just a matter of what the numbers look like.
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Because he’s locking in $90 million dollars and has made very little money in an injured career?
He's guaranteed 4 million this year, and very likely guaranteed around 10 million next year. So he's only getting an extra 11 million over those 2 years in order to give up 3 of his prime free agency years for only 22m a year. And then on top of that he's giving up a club option year where if is what we hope he is by then even that 35m might still be underpaid.