Red Sox hook Crochet for Kyle Teel, Braden Montgomery, Chase Meidroth and Wikelman Gonzalez

[mikcou]

The filling in the blanks part is tough, though. Sometimes you sign a player with warts to a 5 year deal and they become JD Martinez and anchor a WS lineup. Other times they become Yoshida or Story. I'm not sure you can completely ignore the second tier FA market and win, but it's certainly fraught with uncertainty.

This remains my key concern. It strikes me as absurdly difficult to get to the top if a team is not willing to supplement at all in the serious free agent market. I think teams can (and is likely most sustainable) build the framework of a serious contender through draft, develop, and extend, but its hard to be a top 3-4 team without any major free agent on the roster.

The Red Sox teams of the past that have been great had these players (e.g., Manny in 2004, Manny and JD Drew in 2007, a number of mid tier guys in 2013, Price in 2018). Its likely also the reason that the Rays have been good more often than not, but have never really won anything (and the Orioles have struggled to get over the hump the last few years).

 

[SouthernBoSox]

God, I woke up so, so excited this morning when I remembered the Crochet trade. For the 1st time in a long time I'm actually excited to see a Red Sox team come together in Spring Training.

And I'm reposting a graphic I posted when this news broke yesterday of all pitchers in MLB with 140+ IP last season. All of a sudden the Red Sox have a 25-year-old Cy Young contender atop the rotation, with more (we hope) to come. I'm thrilled.

View attachment 93133



Completely agreed, although it probably belongs in another thread.

Speaking of the chart above, I'm hoping for Jack Flaherty at this point. He won't get the top of the market deal that Burnes will, but still has potential to be a significant addition to the rotation. You can never have enough pitching and all that, and most of all we would go from having 0 of the 20 by xFIP to 2 of the top 5 (Pivetta was tied for 21st, Houck 23rd, Bello 35th).

Sox would have a shot against any team in MLB with a playoff rotation that begins Crochet, Flaherty, Houck.

100% and he’s 29 without a QO attached.

You could wind up extending Crochet, signing Flaherty, and has two young studs at around $45AAV for the next 5+ years.

 

[BigSoxFan]

100% and he’s 29 without a QO attached.

You could wind up extending Crochet, signing Flaherty, and has two young studs at around $45AAV for the next 5+ years.

I’d love to know what happened with Flaherty. He looked like a future ace then looked mediocre for a while and then got back to being good again. I would absolutely sign up for Dodgers Flaherty for multiple years.

 

[ShaneTrot]

I think a lot of those people see the massive profits of the Red Sox and wonder why they just can't spend their way out of shit like that? It's a reasonable request but it's also asking that ownership act foolish regarding money. They did spend a good chunk of money on duds to kinda lightly paint themselves into a "we're being competitive" (and they WERE every year... until around the end of July) model to keep people interested.
I just can't see any team operating for long, long terms perpetually paying players not to play for them. So say the ownership follows screaming troll fans like Tom Ricardo here and they just continue to purchase the biggest FA's to apparently satisfy these fans demand that they SHOW THEM that they're interested in competing.... and then those FA's (and lord knows there's been plenty) crash and burn after 2 years on 5-7 year deals... you're just carrying around so much garbage.
I'm not saying that the Sox can't do that, I just get that they don't want to... and it's their team. I just watch.

I hate to bring this up. How about sign Mookie? He was young, he is a top 5 player in the sport. Mookie is a bargain these days. I have looked side-eyed at FSG since that trade. Perhaps their pursuit of Soto was an acknowledgment that a player who is MVP-level in his mid-20s, is worth having no matter the costs.
I want them to spend but not stupidly. I will be annoyed if they sign Bregman. It will be like Story all over again, a fading star who will probably get injured or be in the way of younger better players going forward. Pitching is a different animal. Pitchers get hurt, you have to accept that fact but if you have a chance at a guy that is an ace or a number 2, man up and pay the price. I am sick of the veteran reclamation project.

 

[nvalvo]

Boy, I hope this isn't correct.

I think part of the appeal of getting Crochet (or players under contract for 2 or more years) vs. a free agent is that they will be able to get a more team-friendly contract extension because there are no other bidders.

I would expect him to get less than Fried/Snell. Not a ton less but maybe $3-$5M less AAV?

Sure. On a long term extension, the same approximate total contract value as, say, Snell’s deal would be a lower AAV: 8/$200m vs. 5/$185m. So more like $25m AAV than $35m.

But if we lowball him, it will be a disaster.

 

[mikcou]

I’d love to know what happened with Flaherty. He looked like a future ace then looked mediocre for a while and then got back to being good again. I would absolutely sign up for Dodgers Flaherty for multiple years.

He had a bunch of injuries in 2021/2022 time frame, including a significant olbique injury in 2021 and shoulder bursitis that required PRP in 2022. He also has multiple small tears in his labrum that he has been pitching with for some time (insert all pitchers have shoulder issues, but this is formally diagnosed and released to the public).

He has not been the picture of health and likely requires monitoring and a tight regimen.

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

There has to be a mid point between ownership’s position and the casual fan’s position. We’d all love to avoid bad deals but they are a reality of the business. The fans pointing out the profitability of the team are 100% right. Sox owners are making a lot off of this team. That’s their right. But they also own the downside of that approach where they categorically reject most major FA deals.

Many of the bad FA deals that burned them were just poor evaluations. Some, like Sale and Story, just involved a ton of really bad luck.

Well... no, there doesn't have to be a mid point between ownership's position and anything. The fans position is to follow it no matter what they do- which I do, but I don't give much of a crap anymore.. and not out of any frustration or anything other than lack of time and my free time being something I'd rather spend on making art and music since I don't have the piles of free time I used to- OR.... you can find another team to follow. Yeah, you can yell, and get an online mob together and it's worked in some instances. Not to get political, but brands like Bud Lite did something and the online mob got them to change- but it was backed up with a financial boycott that they felt.
That's your only choice.

 

[BaseballJones]

I’d love to know what happened with Flaherty. He looked like a future ace then looked mediocre for a while and then got back to being good again. I would absolutely sign up for Dodgers Flaherty for multiple years.

I think we can throw out 2020. That was just a freaking nightmare for everyone and with all that insanity going on, I just don't worry about anyone's stats for that season.

So we're looking at 2017-2022 (and for these purposes, I'm actually including his awful and brief 2020):

102 g, 3.41 era, 1.11 whip, 10.3 k/9

Then in 2023 he was bad: 29 g, 4.99 era, 1.58 whip, 9.2 k/9.

Then he bounced back in 2024: 28 g, 3.17 era, 1.07 whip, 10.8 k/9.

So I'd really suggest that he only had one legit bad season - 2023. His 2022 wasn't great (4.25 era, 1.61 whip), so I guess we could group that year with his 2023. So maybe the breakdown is this:

2017-2021: 3.34 era, 1.07 whip, 10.5 k/9
2022-2023: 4.84 era, 1.59 whip, 9.0 k/9
2024: 3.17 era, 1.07 whip, 10.8 k/9

So really, most of his career he's been good. 3.63 era, 1.18 whip, 10.2 k/9. I think he's a decent bet to be pretty good the next few years (which would be his age 29, 30, and 31 seasons).

 

[PedroisGod]

I’d love to know what happened with Flaherty. He looked like a future ace then looked mediocre for a while and then got back to being good again. I would absolutely sign up for Dodgers Flaherty for multiple years.

I had the same thought looking at that chart. 91st percentile in whiff%, 90th percentile in K%, and 83rd percentile in BB%. All of the ingredients are there. I thought that he didn't throw a lot of innings, but he threw 162 IP. I also had it in my head that he'd missed time over the last couple of years, but he hasn't been on the IL since 2022. Whatever issues he had, he seems to have overcome them.

I'm not sure why there isn't more of a market, but that would be a guy I'd be willing to bring in because I am not sure he'll get a nine figure deal and there isn't a QO attached. He was also teammates with Giolito, so that could help us there.

 

[nighthob]

Question for all that still have concerns about the team seeming to be unwilling to spend money. Do you rather they spend to or above the cap on free agents or perhaps should they identify targets like Crochet, use some their player capital to acquire and THEN spend money buying out his remaining arbitration years and extending at a much younger age than the typical FA? And if so, are you good with using some of the remaining cash hoard to spread around amongst the your core to keep them here beyond their arbitration years?

I far prefer them giving Crochet a 4-6 year extension over signing a 31 year old to an 8 year deal that will likely start underperforming by year 5.

 

[chawson]

I’d love to know what happened with Flaherty. He looked like a future ace then looked mediocre for a while and then got back to being good again. I would absolutely sign up for Dodgers Flaherty for multiple years.

I like Flaherty but how much better is he than Crawford? Because that’s who he’d be replacing as of now. Like 1, 1.5 wins?

Could work if the plan is to trade Kutter to improve the roster elsewhere, but that’s probably not in a trade for another pitcher (lest the problem repeat itself with our #4 Giolito) and we’re running out of roster positions where it’s reasonable to acquire clear improvements.

Crawford and Flaherty are essentially the same age and we’ve got the latter under team control for 4 more years. Crawford didn’t finish 2024 up very well (maybe running out of gas?), but he compared favorably to Flaherty by the ASB (2.3 fWAR in 114 IP to Flaherty’s 2.1 fWAR in 95 IP). Kutter was also pitching in an extreme hitters park while Flaherty pitched in one very favorable to pitchers.

 

[Fishy1]

I far prefer them giving Crochet a 4-6 year extension over signing a 31 year old to an 8 year deal that will likely start underperforming by year 5.

Or sooner. A lot of guys start to slide before they fall off a cliff altogether.

We got like, two good years out of Price before he went to pieces.

 

[PedroisGod]

I like Flaherty but how much better is he than Crawford? Because that’s who he’d be replacing as of now. Like 1, 1.5 wins?

Could work if the plan is to trade Kutter to improve the roster elsewhere, but that’s probably not in a trade for another pitcher (lest the problem repeat itself with our #4 Giolito) and we’re running out of roster positions where it’s reasonable to acquire clear improvements.

Crawford and Flaherty are essentially the same age and we’ve got the latter under team control for 4 more years. Crawford didn’t finish 2024 up very well (maybe running out of gas?), but he compared favorably to Flaherty by the ASB (2.3 fWAR in 114 IP to Flaherty’s 2.1 fWAR in 95 IP). Kutter was also pitching in an extreme hitters park while Flaherty pitched in one very favorable to pitchers.

Breslow spoke about wanting to improve both the pitching depth and the ceiling of the staff. I don't think he plans on going in to the season with 5 guys, with one of them being Giolito. It's great to have Fitts, Priester, and Criswell as up and down options, but I don't think that it's crazy to have Crawford as a bullpen option while adding another SP like Flaherty.

 

[The Filthy One]

Breslow spoke about wanting to improve both the pitching depth and the ceiling of the staff. I don't think he plans on going in to the season with 5 guys, with one of them being Giolito. It's great to have Fitts, Priester, and Criswell as up and down options, but I don't think that it's crazy to have Crawford as a bullpen option while adding another SP like Flaherty.

Nor should he. Giolito is far from a certainty to be healthy or consistent and you can pretty much count on at least one starter heading to the IL for some time. They need another starter who they can pencil into the rotation. It doesn't have to be an "ace" but I don't think it can be someone too fringy.

 

[SouthernBoSox]

Breslow spoke about wanting to improve both the pitching depth and the ceiling of the staff. I don't think he plans on going in to the season with 5 guys, with one of them being Giolito. It's great to have Fitts, Priester, and Criswell as up and down options, but I don't think that it's crazy to have Crawford as a bullpen option while adding another SP like Flaherty.

Crochet and Giolito are going to need extra rest days. They should absolutely add another starter.

 

[BigSoxFan]

Well... no, there doesn't have to be a mid point between ownership's position and anything. The fans position is to follow it no matter what they do- which I do, but I don't give much of a crap anymore.. and not out of any frustration or anything other than lack of time and my free time being something I'd rather spend on making art and music since I don't have the piles of free time I used to- OR.... you can find another team to follow. Yeah, you can yell, and get an online mob together and it's worked in some instances. Not to get political, but brands like Bud Lite did something and the online mob got them to change- but it was backed up with a financial boycott that they felt.
That's your only choice.

I don’t think I was clear enough, sorry. I think the “best” approach is somewhere in between ownership’s hard line and fans’ XMAS list. That’s what I was getting at. Clearly, ownership doesn’t have to change and fans don’t have to watch.

 

[loneredseat]

This may not be the best thread for this but there was a lot of Jared Jones talk earlier.
Does Casas and Crawford get you close?
Casas, Crawford, and a subsidized Yoshida?
I'm generally not in favor of trading either Casas or Crawford but for Jones-

 

[nighthob]

I hope you're right, but if I were Crochet's agent, I'd advise no extension. If he has 2 more years of results like 2024, he'll break the bank.

Crochet's had shoulder problems and a full TJ surgery, I'd be shocked if he took that course. It's a lot easier to bet on yourself when you're a position player (e.g. Juan Soto), where major injuries are largely a freak occurrence and rarely chronic. But fatal arm injuries (financial, not literal) are a fact of life as a pitcher.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Crochet and Giolito are going to need extra rest days. They should absolutely add another starter.

Why? Giolito is probably going to be limited a bit coming back from injury, I understand. I expect it might be more in the form of pitch limits and piggy-backing him with someone like Whitlock. Crochet should be all systems go, no? They did not impart limits on Houck and Crawford this season after pitching fewer innings in 2023 than Crochet did in 2024. I don't expect kid gloves treatment for Crochet unless he demonstrates a need for them (like if he starts to wear down in July/August or something).

That's not an argument against adding another starter though. I just don't buy that as rationale. If we're talking a spot start here and there to stretch the rotation out a bit or give a guy an extra day or two, that role can be filled by Criswell and/or Fitts (or <shudder> a bullpen game), couldn't it?

 

[chawson]

Breslow spoke about wanting to improve both the pitching depth and the ceiling of the staff. I don't think he plans on going in to the season with 5 guys, with one of them being Giolito. It's great to have Fitts, Priester, and Criswell as up and down options, but I don't think that it's crazy to have Crawford as a bullpen option while adding another SP like Flaherty.

I’m all for depth but I’d prefer they trade Crawford in that scenario. He finally got stretched out as a starter and had a really encouraging year in the rotation. He’d lose a substantial amount of value if relegated to a 6th starter/long man role, and given how affordable he is, that value would be better re-allocated in a trade.

Assuming Giolito’s healthy, I think Priester, Fitts, Criswell, Penrod and maybe the Fulmer experiment seem like good depth for the 6th starter role.

 

[scottyno]

Why? Giolito is probably going to be limited a bit coming back from injury, I understand. I expect it might be more in the form of pitch limits and piggy-backing him with someone like Whitlock. Crochet should be all systems go, no? They did not impart limits on Houck and Crawford this season after pitching fewer innings in 2023 than Crochet did in 2024. I don't expect kid gloves treatment for Crochet unless he demonstrates a need for them (like if he starts to wear down in July/August or something).

Crawford was terrible in the 2nd half and Houck was much worse than the 1st half so maybe they would have if they had any better options.

 

[The Filthy One]

This writeup from Ben Clemens in Fangraphs is relevant to the discussion of workload management. Here's the key quote:

The Red Sox will do everything they can to limit that risk. They’ll find him extra rest days, sometimes through the use of a six-man rotation and sometimes merely by using off days to space out his starts. Unlike their Sox counterparts in Chicago, they’re hoping to use Crochet in October, too, so starting slow and building up seems like the best path forward. You can look at late-career Sale, Tyler Glasnow, and maybe Cy Young-era Corbin Burnes for workload analogs. Major league teams haven’t solved pitching injuries by any stretch of the imagination, but they’re good at getting important innings out of dominant starters, even when the starters can’t produce gargantuan innings totals.

 

[Hank Scorpio]

Craig Breslow threw some cold water on the idea of extending Crochet any time soon - when asked on WEEI this morning.

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nXDFJuCk_88

 

[Max Power]

This writeup from Ben Clemens in Fangraphs is relevant to the discussion of workload management. Here's the key quote:

"They’re good at getting important innings out of dominant starters" is a pretty wild take when both Sale and Glasnow were unavailable for the playoffs.

 

[dynomite]

Crochet's had shoulder problems and a full TJ surgery, I'd be shocked if he took that course. It's a lot easier to bet on yourself when you're a position player (e.g. Juan Soto), where major injuries are largely a freak occurrence and rarely chronic. But fatal arm injuries (financial, not literal) are a fact of life as a pitcher.

I think that's right. Someone suggested he could try to balance the best of both worlds and sign a 3ish year extension that "buys out" the next 2 years and gives him a guaranteed payday with the opportunity to get another when he's 29/30 like Fried & Burnes did.

For a guy who made $800K last season and has had the arm injuries you note, I can see why an extension makes sense in the coming months -- no matter what Breslow says to WEEI the day after the trade.

Breslow spoke about wanting to improve both the pitching depth and the ceiling of the staff. I don't think he plans on going in to the season with 5 guys, with one of them being Giolito. It's great to have Fitts, Priester, and Criswell as up and down options, but I don't think that it's crazy to have Crawford as a bullpen option while adding another SP like Flaherty.

Exactly this. Going into the season with 5 SPs -- as the Sox did last season -- is a great way to end up stuck with AAA starters and bullpen days by May.

For a team that is probably hoping to grab a Wild Card spot and win ~90 games next season, the marginal 5-10 games of Crawford/Criswell starting vs. depth from AAA/the bullpen can be the difference between making the playoffs and not -- and for a team with the Sox financial resources, a smart investment.

"They’re good at getting important innings out of dominant starters" is a pretty wild take when both Sale and Glasnow were unavailable for the playoffs.

Totally agreed, and there are so, so many more examples. Musgrove in San Diego. Orioles lost Bradish early in the season and shut down Grayson Rodriguez in August. The Mets ended up getting like 10 total innings out of Senga this year.

Re-reading the quote I don't even totally know what he's trying to suggest, but no reading of It makes sense to me.

 

[nighthob]

Crawford was terrible in the 2nd half and Houck was much worse than the 1st half so maybe they would have if they had any better options.

Crawford was past his IP high. He'll look better next year.

 

[scottyno]

Crawford past his IP high. He'll look better next year.

Agreed, but the point was in relation to how they might handle Crochet and his innings this year. Houck and Crawford both blew through their career high innings last season, and at least last season that didn't really work, particularly with Crawford. Maybe if they had some better options to give him some extra rest they would have given him some extra rest days throughout the season to keep his innings down a bit. This year they should (in theory) have better options late in the season if they want to keep Crochet's innings down some.

 

[YTF]

Craig Breslow threw some cold water on the idea of extending Crochet any time soon - when asked on WEEI this morning.

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nXDFJuCk_88

The way I heard it is that there was no extension demand made by Crochet and there was little else offered by Breslow.

 

[soxhop411]

View: https://twitter.com/_dadler/status/1867315615200866481?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1867315615200866481%7Ctwgr%5Ecbcbb70ce2a258e6dbc09ca041990d7c33fe1bfb%7Ctwcon%5Es1_c10&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fforum.soxprospects.com%2Fthread%2F7752%2Fred-sox-trade-garrett-crochet%3Fpage%3D19

1) He didn't lose velocity … he gained it
You expect to see a velo boost when a starting pitcher converts to a reliever -- not the other way around. But that's what Crochet did. He went from the bullpen to the rotation, and he started throwing hard

2) He expanded his arsenal
Dominant relievers often don't need a big repertoire; they just need one or two wipeout pitches. That was true of Crochet. As a reliever, he relied heavily on a two-pitch combination: fastball-sweeper.
From 2020-23, Crochet's four-seamer and sweeping slider accounted for 90% of his pitches. But it's hard to get by on two pitches when you're a starter and you have to get both righties and lefties out multiple times a game. So when Crochet moved into the White Sox starting rotation in 2024, he added new pitches.

so More at the link
https://www.mlb.com/news/how-garrett-crochet-became-an-ace

 

[BaseballJones]

View: https://twitter.com/_dadler/status/1867315615200866481?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1867315615200866481%7Ctwgr%5Ecbcbb70ce2a258e6dbc09ca041990d7c33fe1bfb%7Ctwcon%5Es1_c10&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fforum.soxprospects.com%2Fthread%2F7752%2Fred-sox-trade-garrett-crochet%3Fpage%3D19




More at the link
https://www.mlb.com/news/how-garrett-crochet-became-an-ace

Good lord. I will need to see a doctor.

 

[Sox Pride]

Good lord. I will need to see a doctor.

You are not alone.

oh please stay healthy, please stay healthy, please stay healthy

I 100% vote to give this man an extension. Make it 5/100 with a couple of 25M optional extensions.

 

[Beomoose]

Good lord. I will need to see a doctor.

What are you going to do for the next 4 hours while you wait?

 

[E5 Yaz]

You are not alone.

oh please stay healthy, please stay healthy, please stay healthy

I 100% vote to give this man an extension. Make it 5/100 with a couple of 25M optional extensions.

I know you're excited, and who can blame you. But Fried just got 8/218; there's little to no chance Crochet signs for 7/150

 

[BaseballJones]

What are you going to do for the next 4 hours while you wait?

Rewatching those clips of Crochet.

 

[barbed wire Bob]

Good lord. I will need to see a doctor.

You are not alone.

oh please stay healthy, please stay healthy, please stay healthy

I 100% vote to give this man an extension. Make it 5/100 with a couple of 25M optional extensions.

For those of us who have no clue about biomechanics and pitching mechanics, can you explain what you see that causes you heart pain?

 

[soxhop411]

Good lord. I will need to see a doctor.

You are not alone.

oh please stay healthy, please stay healthy, please stay healthy

I 100% vote to give this man an extension. Make it 5/100 with a couple of 25M optional extensions.

What are you going to do for the next 4 hours while you wait?

View: https://imgur.com/a/wsuy4oa

 

[soxhop411]

Good lord. I will need to see a doctor.

You are not alone.

oh please stay healthy, please stay healthy, please stay healthy

I 100% vote to give this man an extension. Make it 5/100 with a couple of 25M optional extensions.

What are you going to do for the next 4 hours while you wait?

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SPL8GfVByiU&pp=ygUPZ2FycmV0dCBjcm9jaGV0

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iRr0hEhSIX4&pp=ygUPZ2FycmV0dCBjcm9jaGV0

 

[BaseballJones]

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SPL8GfVByiU&pp=ygUPZ2FycmV0dCBjcm9jaGV0

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iRr0hEhSIX4&pp=ygUPZ2FycmV0dCBjcm9jaGV0

Are you trying to actually put me in the hospital?

 

[Marciano490]

This is my favorite Red Sox move in awhile. Young, nasty lefty who strikes a ton of guys out. Maybe Teel makes an all star game in his late 20s. Who cares. This was a steal.

 

[soxhop411]

Are you trying to actually put me in the hospital?

no comment

 

[scottyno]

I know you're excited, and who can blame you. But Fried just got 8/218; there's little to no chance Crochet signs for 7/150

He might when you consider how little he's going to make over the next 2 years otherwise. Probably a little light to buy out 5 years of free agency but it's something like 5-135 and would make him a free agent in his early 30s. 7-175 is probably more realistic.

 

[JimD]

Craig Breslow threw some cold water on the idea of extending Crochet any time soon - when asked on WEEI this morning.

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nXDFJuCk_88

There is nothing for Breslow to gain by saying anything different.

 

[skidmark21]

Steamer projection for Crochet is not bad. 12-8, 2.86 FIP, 167 IP, 2.74 BB9, 11.7 K9, 4.7 WAR. Coincidentally Chris Sale posted 4.7 WAR from 2019-2023 in total.

 

[SuperDieHard]

I know you're excited, and who can blame you. But Fried just got 8/218; there's little to no chance Crochet signs for 7/150

The difference is that right now Crochet will be getting roughly 5M max each year for the next 2 years. If the Sox are overwriting that with 7/150 it’s really a 5/140 extension and gives Crochet the security against injury that could derail the whole thing before he gets the big $. Gives the Sox at least a little leverage….

 

[E5 Yaz]

The difference is that right now Crochet will be getting roughly 5M max each year for the next 2 years. If the Sox are overwriting that with 7/150 it’s really a 5/140 extension and gives Crochet the security against injury that could derail the whole thing before he gets the big $. Gives the Sox at least a little leverage….

It's a plausible scenario, but if Crochet wanted this sort of risk security, if I were his agent, I'd advise him to take no more than five years and enter the market again at 30. But you could be right

 

[LogansDad]

It's a plausible scenario, but if Crochet wanted this sort of risk security, if I were his agent, I'd advise him to take no more than five years and enter the market again at 30. But you could be right

My guess was 5/$100-120, but I could absolutely see some sort of mutually beneficial option that could make it 7 years.

Something like 7/$180 with 5/$120 guaranteed, Crochet can opt out after 5 but team has option to buy it out after 5 as well (when the last two years would be $30M each).

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

The difference is that right now Crochet will be getting roughly 5M max each year for the next 2 years. If the Sox are overwriting that with 7/150 it’s really a 5/140 extension and gives Crochet the security against injury that could derail the whole thing before he gets the big $. Gives the Sox at least a little leverage….

I disagree with the bolded. Estimates are $3M for 2025 and if he has a really good year (like a repeat of 2024 but throwing 30-40 more innings), $10-12M in 2026 isn't out of the realm of possibility. It's a big jump but he'd certainly be justified asking for that in arbitration. Burnes got $15.6M for his final year of arbitration. Fried got $15M. Cease is estimated to get ~$14M this winter. Framber Valdez is looking at $17-18M. I really don't think Crochet's next two years are going to max out at $10M total.

5/120ish with options that bring it to 7/180-185 is probably more the ballpark that will get him interested.

 

[Hank Scorpio]

I disagree with the bolded. Estimates are $3M for 2025 and if he has a really good year (like a repeat of 2024 but throwing 30-40 more innings), $10-12M in 2026 isn't out of the realm of possibility. It's a big jump but he'd certainly be justified asking for that in arbitration. Burnes got $15.6M for his final year of arbitration. Fried got $15M. Cease is estimated to get ~$14M this winter. Framber Valdez is looking at $17-18M. I really don't think Crochet's next two years are going to max out at $10M total.

5/120ish with options that bring it to 7/180-185 is probably more the ballpark that will get him interested.

I think you'd have to buy out more than just 3 years of free agency guaranteed, unless you mean player options. 7-8 years, 180-200 sounds around right.

 

[BaseballJones]

I'd try to sign him through age 33, which means 8 seasons with the Sox (starting with 2025). That would be young enough to still land another good FA contract if he's done well and stayed healthy, but it would mean the Sox could probably feel pretty good about letting him go at that point. Or, of course, they could always also try to keep him longer with another FA deal or extension.

 

[Animale]

Don't think 5/120 gets it done, but maybe 5/130-5/140? (10+20 for arb years, 3x30 + a 20-ish signing bonus?). Not sure anything past 5 gets it done unless its an obscene amount (40-45 per?)