Red Sox hire analytics company to optimize game start times in 2023
- Thread starter JBJ_HOF
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Apologies for not knowing this, but how are start times determined in MLB? In the NFL for instance the networks control the schedule. The Pats can make requests but don't really control it. The article says the Sox can control NESN games. So I assume if they're not on a Fox or ESPN or TBS national game, and they're at home, they can set the times?
The short answer is "yes," but there may be other requirements, such as afternoon games before west coast travel days, etc. I do know the White Sox several years ago started their games at 7:11PM CDT because of a partnership with, yep, you guessed it, 7-11.
I await the Sox first 4:20 start because of a partnership with cannabis company. Or "this 7:14 start is brought to you by Rorer."
...but ultimately I don't think it's a good idea for a team to constantly mess with start times, because people are used to routine. As viewers, we know we should turn on the TV at 7pm to begin to watch home games, unless we want to catch the pregame show. But ballplayers are creatures of habit, and they might not like the idea of starting a game Monday at 7:35, Tuesday at 7:05, and then Wednesday at 1:15. Maybe I'm projecting. I'm all for maximizing revenue if you're going to invest in the product, but this seems like an unnecessary measure to me.
I would like to see more earlier start times during the week during April and September and more afternoon weekend games.
Or those who need to frequently use the bathroom.
Unless they're consistent in their changes, like Tuesdays will start at 6, Fridays at 7:30, you're earlier point seems right about switching around.
Correct. There's a loose MLB approval process to the whole thing, but teams can essentially set whatever times they want to. A few seasons ago, the Cardinals moved from 7:15pm start times to 6:45pm start times for Mon-Thu games before Memorial Day and after Labor Day. The thought process being that ticket sales will increase for families with school-aged children if the games are starting (and ending) earlier during the school year. It was such a success that they moved all Mon-Thu games to 6:45 for the 2022 season, minus national broadcasts.
Feels like 6:30-6:35 would even be fine. Even if you work until 6 you can get there. And most games would end 9:30-9:45.
After the first season with the 6:45 starts, there was a poll out put to STH and weekday group ticket buyers, and 6:45 and 6:30 were the top 2 choices, respectively. A very small percentage of respondents wanted to go back to 7:15. I thought that was interesting.
When the Braves changed stadiums from Atlanta to Cobb County they moved back the start time of games because of traffic concerns and because they rely on the lots of businesses by the stadium for paid parking to generate revenue. They moved the start times back to the normal time after a year or two when they figured out that people were leaving the lots empty from 5 o'clock on. Traffic was never really a concern to them.
Does anyone want to wager a guess what the optimal start time is? The 7:05p start results in a lot of games ending after 10p when people (especially kids) have packed in for the night. If they move the game start to, say, 6:05p, you get people right when they get home from work and the biggest innings where there is more excitement (right?) aligns better with prime time viewing in the 8-9p hour.
Not exactly on topic, but I would love to see all Saturday home games, that NESN controls, start at 4:15. No more Saturday night games, and no early starts. I think that start time is optimal for what is, for many, an at least partial work day, and a day to run errands, catch up on household stuff, play a round of golf, etc. Agree that if they do stagger week night start times, they need to establish a consistent pattern throughout the season. For both fans and players.
4:00ish starts are prone to issues with shadows around home plate. That's about the only strike against the time that I can think of, but it might be a significant one for the players.
Ultimately, I think player input is likely to limit how dynamic they get with start times. They'll probably be fine with moving first pitch up an hour or 30 minutes or whatever, but only if it's consistent. I can't see any players tolerating a 6:30 start one night, then 7:15 the next, then back to 6:30, then a 4:15, and so on.
I have no idea what the optimal start time will be, but with an earlier start time of 6:05, because of traffic and working past 5pm, a large number of people won't be able to start watching until around 7 anyway. And by that time the starters might not even be in the game anymore with the way that SP innings have been trending lately.
Since the article specifically references maximizing TV ratings, good luck with that.
Families have to eat dinner together, I don't think routinely starting games before 7:00 is a good idea if you're trying to get more people to watch.
Only caution I'd say on that is that I'd expect season ticket holders to be more local and able to make it to a 6:45 or 6:30 start time more easily. A 6:30 start time for anyone who doesn't work in Massachusetts is a tough ask to make work, so I'm going to guess if you surveyed a wider base of folks that 6:30 and 6:45 may not be up there. With that said, given who is spending money more often, I'm not sure that should matter. I do wonder how the polling on this looks both for people who go to see the games who don't work in or around Boston (especially as remote work is much more common) and among the TV viewing public.
This, 100%. If you work until “5:00”, that often means more like 5:15 or 5:30 in reality. By the time you get home, make dinner, and gather the family and eat, anything much before 7 is tough.
But who except the most diehard watch all 9 innings? Better to end games earlier and miss the first couple innings (or catch up on DVR) vs the other way around.
Making your schedule in a way that screws your most diehard fans seems like a terrible idea.
To me the 6:30 pm start was more about the end of the game, not when the game actually started. The DVR would take care of the beginning of the game and you could "catch up" by speeding through commercials. Games ending around or even before 10 pm was a nice benefit. (Not sure if any of that would maximize TV ratings though versus viewers' convenience.)
If it’s about maximizing tv ratings, then games should start at 730, maybe even 8. You want as much of the game to be in prime time - 6 is way too early, a lot of potential viewers aren’t home yet, or are eating dinner or outside (in the summer) as possible. Challenge is that ratings will generally dip around 11 or so as it gets late. I suspect 730-745 is the sweet spot.
Obvious challenge is that what’s best for viewers at home is often what’s worst for fans attending.
Obvious challenge is that what’s best for viewers at home is often what’s worst for fans attending.
I don't disagree with this, but if they are performing an analysis, the diehard fan that is already watching all 9 innings isn't really what they are going after here -- in order to maximize viewership they have to try to attract people that aren't already watching. So if they determine that, ok, 6:45pm start gets x% more viewers, and a few diehard fans that work until 6 get upset, it's pretty obvious where that will end up.
I recall during the 90s that there were a couple of seasons where the Sox scheduled April and some May games earlier than 7:05 and once the good weather hit, bumped it back to 7:05, which was something that I thought worked well. As long as they don't go back to 7:35 starts, I'm fine with whatever they choose.
This is exactly right. The team really doesn't care at all about the people who buy tickets since most of the revenue is in TV broadcasts. I assume the start times are going to be horrible for anyone who wants to attend in person.
Exactly. Grow the base. The diehards are tuning in regardless. It’s why the announcers aren’t different, it’s why the in stadium experience is what it is, etc.
I don't know that an 8:00 start serves either. If people have concerns about 3:15-3:30 long games now, an 8:00 start now ends at 11:15 or later. That's an issue for home viewers who already struggle to stay awake for games and I'm guessing that most folks making their way to Fenway wouldn't be thrilled about this. As I get older, I'm less enthused about a 2:00 am return home after a game Push that back an hour and I'm much less likely to purchase tickets. MLB is already struggling with the pace of game issue. While a later start doesn't affect the pace of game, it does guarantee a later finish and IMO that will have an effect on viewership.
Regarding in person attendance, I'd be curious what the mix is between people traveling in (who I presume would struggle to arrive before 7) vs people already in the city. Personally as someone who works (pre-covid) in downtown Boston, I'd go to more games if they had an earlier start time since I work until 5 or so and it would mean less waiting around after work. And being in the city from 7am until 10:30-11pm makes for a really long day.
This is an important consideration for folks who have to come into the city. Speaking strictly for myself, with a 2 1/2 drive time I would normally take the afternoon off or use a vacation day. I'm curious how many others do similar. We typically prefer to be in the Fenway area no later than 5:00 so we can grab a bite nearby and maybe catch the end of BP. Because I take some PTO, getting there an hour earlier wouldn't be an issue for me. Leaving an hour earlier would be huge.
As an out-of-stater, I would definitely welcome earlier start times for weekend games. Weekend games are really the only option for me unless I want to leave work early the day of and go in late/take the following day off in order to attend. For anyone in Central VT (like me) or beyond that approximate radius from Boston, attending a game is easily a 10+ hour commitment that is tough to swing during the week.
Like YTF mentioned, the 2am return home sucks, no matter how old you are. Move the weekend 7pm games to 1pm or 2pm and I'm home at a reasonable time even if the games go 4+ hours.
Like YTF mentioned, the 2am return home sucks, no matter how old you are. Move the weekend 7pm games to 1pm or 2pm and I'm home at a reasonable time even if the games go 4+ hours.
Yes and IIRC, those who utilize public transportation need to keep an eye on the clock.
I lost interest in the Sox when my son was born in 2015. I didn't have the energy to stay up and see the finish of games anymore, and without that I lost my emotional investment in the team. I just needed to see the end of games in realtime to feel like I was "participating," I guess. If they moved the start time up and did something to shorten the length of a game, I'd get sucked right back in.
1000% You hear talk about prime time ratings, but doesn't your product ultimately suffer when less people care about your sport because they frequently have to check out before the game ends?
What do the analytics say about the best time for game start (M-Th, and F, which are probably different) in order to minimize total fan pain regarding traffic and parking? (For Fenway, other parks could/would obviously be different)
That's what I would support.
That's what I would support.
Yeah, to me, if I am watching the game on TV, 7:00 is a very good time for a ball game to start and 9:30 is a very good time for a ball game to end. But I can’t have both because the games last too long.
And if I am going to miss the end of the game then I am less likely to watch.
So there is some reasonable probability I would watch more baseball with a 6:30 start time.
Edit: there is a complete certainty I would watch less baseball with a 7:30 start time.
Also I am referring to weekday games only. Weekend games should all start at 1:00.
And if I am going to miss the end of the game then I am less likely to watch.
So there is some reasonable probability I would watch more baseball with a 6:30 start time.
Edit: there is a complete certainty I would watch less baseball with a 7:30 start time.
Also I am referring to weekday games only. Weekend games should all start at 1:00.
There is zero percent change that weeknight games will be starting earlier than they already do.
average game is 3 hours, 10 minutes. If you want games to have the largest audience possible, you want as much of the game being in prime time as you can……between 730-745 seems the easy answer here.
Are you taking into account that the average age of a baseball fan is 57?