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At the start of this season they had the #20 farm system
At the start of this season they had the #20 farm system
Red Sox have the #9 farm system according to Baseball America
- Thread starter soxhop411
- Start date
I wrote this elsewhere, but explain this to me: how are the Red Sox ranked ninth in the majors but didn't have enough prospects to grab a player (1B, starter, reliever) at the deadline?
Something doesn't add up here*.
* Two things:
1. I didn't read the article so it maybe it goes into that (like Bill I don't subscribe to BA)
2. I realize that Bloom isn't going to trade Casas orr Mayer for Rizzo, but could a few lower tiered players get someone (not necessarily Rizzo)? We've been told that the Sox prospects weren't as good as the Giants, Blue Jays, Yankees, etc.
So what's the deal here, do the Sox have good prospects that Bloom didn't want to trade or are the Sox prospects overvalued by BA?
Something doesn't add up here*.
* Two things:
1. I didn't read the article so it maybe it goes into that (like Bill I don't subscribe to BA)
2. I realize that Bloom isn't going to trade Casas orr Mayer for Rizzo, but could a few lower tiered players get someone (not necessarily Rizzo)? We've been told that the Sox prospects weren't as good as the Giants, Blue Jays, Yankees, etc.
So what's the deal here, do the Sox have good prospects that Bloom didn't want to trade or are the Sox prospects overvalued by BA?
Good prospects that Bloom didn’t want to trade. That Blue Jays package in particular to get Berrios was crazy, no way Chaim matches it
I too don't have a subscription to BA, but I think there is at least a third option for an explanation: the 2021 draft was very good (and untradeable by rule). I mean, that has to be a significant part of the change between the pre-season ranking and now.
Also, a few of the teams that did make significant moves at the deadline may have dropped in the rankings as a result of who they dealt.
They were ninth after the deadline, presumably lower before? Also, Mayer surely provided a boost, but can’t and wouldn’t be traded. If you figure that these rankings are driven more by quality and quantity, perhaps it makes sense, as they weren’t going to move Casas, Duran, etc. Others like Mata and Song were unlikely to be traded as well, due to injury / Navy commitment.
I still think they should have made more trades but once you get past a teams too prospects I’m sure it’s more subjective and matching up can be more difficult.
I still think they should have made more trades but once you get past a teams too prospects I’m sure it’s more subjective and matching up can be more difficult.
Right, that's a big part of it. New York, in particular, traded away a lot of assets and would rank much higher if they hadn't.
I can buy that logic of the last sentence. Like I said, I don't have a BA subscription, so I can't read the article.
The high ranking is driven by the presence of three top-30-in-the-game prospects: Mayer, Casas, and Duran -- none of whom were going to get traded for a marginal rental upgrade. The guys you saw traded at the deadline were in a middle tier that the system is still a little thin in.
Think of it this way. There's your Mayer-Casas-Duran tier of guys who are too good to trade. Then there's a tier of Jimenez, Houck, Bello, Yorke, Seabold, Groome -- guys who could be the top prospect in a package for a decent rental. Then there is a STEEP drop-off in value. We just don't have the same depth in that second tier that the Yankees did, which is why they could trade several of those guys to get Rizzo and Gallo. Instead, we only traded one of them (Aldo Ramirez) for Schwarber.
For what it's worth, I think BA is overvaluing Duran and that even if those top three guys are accurately ranked, it doesn't add up to this high of an organizational ranking.
Couldn’t it simply be Chaim didn’t want to make the trades, as opposed didn’t have the prospects to make the trades?
Hence, if they had made those trades, we would be 25th instead of 9th, etc.
It was a choice. They will be in a really strong position of having a top-notch farm system, payroll flexibility, and all of the resources needed within the next 2-3 years.
That last sentence seems the most logical to me as well. I don't have a BA sub either, but looking at some articles about individual teams I see that Detroit moved from 4 to 6. Seattle moved from 2 to 1. So there was some movement.
This. it isn't necessarily about having the prospects to do deals (especially for rentals). It's about building enough depth in the system so they can make these deals and not drop back down to the 20s in the rankings. Look at the Rays, Padres and Dodgers systems they can do that.
Yes, and I think the debate around the trade deadline came down to the willingness to let go of a couple - not all, but a couple - of those second tier guys. Would that have been worth strengthening the team a little more (and more immediately given Schwarber's injury) than Bloom did? And if he had given them up, how much would that have set the organization back ... to replace a couple of those guys? ...
It is definitely possible that Bloom and co. rate these prospects higher than the prospect media guys. I still don't understand how Houck is valued so low and Groome has such a high ceiling. Nobody liked the Yorke pick and he still isn't a top 100 prospect even though he is tearing up the minors. The Sox have more info on these guys than anyone else and thought they were too valuable to the future of the team to move. While I am sure Mayer is a big part of this jump, it looks as if Bloom had laid a foundation for a sustainable farm for the next few years.
Yeah, this is it, teams like the Padres and Yankees have been dealing in bulk from their second tier since last offseason (NY has traded 19 prospects since the winter, SD probably a similar amount), but also I think the public rating services like BA etc. have not yet adjusted very well to the post-Covid and post-minor league contraction reality, and their ratings are six months or a year behind in a time when prospects have never moved so quickly (again because of Covid needs, contraction, and just because the game continues to get younger).
I think of the public services, Fangraphs and Kiley McDaniel at ESPN (formerly at Fangraphs) are better than the others, I haven't subscribed to BA for a few years but they generally seem a bit antiquated (which is the main reason I let my subscription lapse).
Why is Casas touted as a "middle of the order mainstay" who hits for "average and power"? I think he's a fine prospect, but I don't expect him to hit for average and power based on his pro results so far. I could be missing something, but how does a guy who hit .256 in low A and is currently hitting .271 in AA project that well? His OBP relative to his BA looks fantastic, and he has some pop but slugging .472 at low A doesn't scream "middle of the order" and he isn't tearing the cover off the ball thus far in AA. I'm genuinely asking what I'm missing because I assume this many people aren't wrong. SOSH loves him, fangraphs loves him, BA apparently loves him. I look at purely his B-ref page and am concerned there isn't enough evidence of quality contact to start getting hot and heavy over him.
He is still very young (turned 21 in January), and is a level or two ahead of most prospects his age.
Some of this has to be performance related from lower minor guys' performance since the beginning of the season too.
Nick York and Blaze Jordan who were questionable picks from others on draft day have been great. Bryan Bello is rocketing up as well.
Nick York and Blaze Jordan who were questionable picks from others on draft day have been great. Bryan Bello is rocketing up as well.
The sox farm system has a couple of higher end top 50 type players (Casas, Mayer, Duran) and a ton of middle tier players. To use fangraphs's methodology, they have a ton of 35 and 40 0V prospects. Those players are typically the second or third piece in a larger deal. You can squint and see the Red Sox having 15 or 20 future major league, which makes for an upper tier farm system, but only a small few are impact players. Most are reliever and bench player/rotational player ceilings. Teams like the padres and yankees have had a lot of capital to spend in that 45 -50 range and the red sox just arent there yet. Those are the players that are usually sent in deals like that. Mid rotation starters with a mlb reliever floor, guys that have hit well in the mid-high minors and look to be at least solid utility types. You can imagine a number of the red sox 35-40 guys progress and next trade deadline looks a bit different but player development is erratic.
Interesting fangraphs article on tools. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/scouting-explained-the-20-80-scouting-scale/
His present vs future hit tool is 35/55 per fangraphs which means there is a big gap between now and what he could become. A 35 is roughly a .230 and a 55 is roughly .270. The power tool gap is even wider 35/60 which is 5-8HR vs.27-30. This article is also from 2014, so the tools won't reflect those numbers as accurately. When you are drafted so young, the gaps are often large because there hasn't been college competition to project him more accurately. We've seen the tape measure shots already. The consistency will take a minute.
The fact that his k% is under 20 to me is very encouraging.
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It seems in the past decade, or even two, the valuation of prospects has fluctuated greatly within the league, from both forward and backward-thinking clubs.
I agree that in some years it does seem the opportunity cost of allowing a 200 million dollar team to limp to the finish line is backways-thinking when the munitions are sitting down in the sweet meadows up in Maine etc. While I share the grief, I trust the process while knowing that the best moves are most times the ones not made. The big club will come around, baseballs a funny game.
I don't see Miguel Bleis mentioned but isn't the hope that he'll be a top 5 Sox prospect some day? He's very young and so hard to project but even there, is off to a terrific start in the DSL in a small number of ABs (OPS 1.1)
https://bloggingtheredsox.com/2021/02/22/red-sox-have-an-extremely-exciting-prospect-in-dominican-outfielder-miguel-bleis-eddie-romero-says/
https://bloggingtheredsox.com/2021/02/22/red-sox-have-an-extremely-exciting-prospect-in-dominican-outfielder-miguel-bleis-eddie-romero-says/
Not to speak for nvalvo, but I think Houck's future as a starter hinges on his development of a splitter or changeup that helps him get left-handed batters. If he throws nothing but sliders and fastballs, he will be vulnerable to heavily left-handed lineups, and his ceiling will be top-notch reliever. Add a league-average offspeed pitch and Houck re-enters the discussion for #2 starter.
Yup. Exactly.
It will also help him turn over a lineup more than once. He gets completely shellacked (1.012 OPS) his third time through the lineup, although to be fair, it's a tiny sample because he's barely done it.
Yup. I was just going to post this. .333/.412/.600 to be exact, but it's only 17 PA's like you note. When you expand it out and isolate the middle innings to try to bring the sample size up, it also doesn't look promising at the moment. In innings four through six, as a starter, Houck has 16.2 IP. Still SSS, but he's got a 5.40 ERA, .280 BAA, and hitters have a .830 OPS against him. 78 PA's overall in that sample. I always thought the lack of a change would hurt him most significantly vs. LHH, but that hasn't been the case to this point. He has a better triple slash vs. lefties so far although it's close and when you look at his minor league numbers lefties did hurt him in A+ - AA. In 2018 and 2019 in the minors he gave up roughly a .775 OPS vs lefties compared to ~.685 vs RHH. I think that will eventually catch up to him in the majors as he gets more exposure out of the rotation and his split vs. LHH will start to resemble his minor league numbers. That makes me think he'll probably end up in the 'pen, but probably in a valuable high leverage role. Love Houck, and we're lucky to have him, I just don't anticipate him being the #2 starter going forward.
I think I kind of threw age out of my mind while posting. I say about Downs all the time that he's young enough to adjust in time (and he's absolutely dying in AAA) but Casas is even younger. AA at 21 after missing a year to COVID is basically equivalent to AA at 20 - which is generally an exciting thing to see.
Thanks for the insight. The age factor, K% and potential vs. future hit tool changed my perspective on him as a prospect. Appreciate the post very much.
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Some really good comments here, and some understandable questions about rankings based on statistics.
It's important to note that with prospects, stats are great, they don't tell nearly as much of the story as they do in the majors given how players develop and the quality of their competition. A couple of quick hits based on this thread from what I've read elsewhere.
So yeah, I don't know if that's helpful, but that's a summary of what I've heard about some of the prospects discussed in this thread. The stats are important, but the observations of scouts is also needed for context.
Regarding the trade deadline concern, I like the point raised earlier about the tiers in the system. The trouble Boston has, compared to some other orgs, is that Boston doesn't have much in terns of close to major league role player talent in their second and third tiers.
For me it's tier 1:
Casas, Mayer, Duran
From there, the only one I would be willing to trade is Duran (side note, I may be crazy, but I could see putting Bello here)
Tier 2:
Downs, Bello, Jimenez, Yorke, Seabold, Groome
Here you got a very good prospect having a miserable season (Downs' numbers are not only bad, he's looked totally overmatched), 3 guys that are miles away, a good depth SP who would be a tradable asset but has been hurt most the season (Seabold) and a complete wild card in Groome. If I'm another organization, I don't know who here I'd target for a player like Rizzo. Maybe Jiminez?
Tier 3:
Everybody else
Here you run into the issue where everyone else is either miles away (Jordan, Bleis, Gonzalez) or likely relievers and or bench players. There is good depth, here, but there aren't the ingredients for a big trade.
If Mata, Seabold, and Ward all didn't deal with significant injuries this year, Boston might have had the ammo to match some of these trades as all 3 are/were close to the majors before getting hurt. But yeah, without them, Boston is super short on near mlb ready talent at SP or near mlb ready talent that profile to be starting positional players, who aren't named Casas.
It's important to note that with prospects, stats are great, they don't tell nearly as much of the story as they do in the majors given how players develop and the quality of their competition. A couple of quick hits based on this thread from what I've read elsewhere.
- Casas being so highly regarded despite "meh" stats this year
Casas, like everyone, has had a strange year. His stranger than most, due to the qualifier and the Olympics. In those, against competition that's almost certainly better than AA he's performed well. He's shown immense power-hitting tape measure home runs and has shown an understanding of the strike zone and quality bat to ball skills for a power hitter. Scouts think he has a shot at being an average to better hitter and the power is obvious.He fields 1B well and is athletic for a huge guy. He has a long track record of success, having been one of the best-regarded prep bats of his draft class, and throughout the minors he's not looked overmatched. Even during this "down" year he's posted a 111 WRC+ and that doesn't include his performance in the Olympics and qualifier, against better competition. As JA pointed out, he's also really young for his league. - Yorke looking so great this season
That he has. It's super encouraging. Though, according to people who've watched him play, he still needs to add a good bit of strength as he doesn't drive the ball as well as his numbers would suggest. Same folks are saying that he's fringy at 2B and has some LF risk. Still, he's super young for his level. If he didn't reach low A this year, it wouldn't have been a disaster and he probably ends the season in high A. It's been an incredibly encouraging season, and I think the org is vindicated on the pick. He still has some work to do and is probably not a top 100 type prospect yet (but he could be down the line). - Jarren Duran and whether or not he's being overhyped
Durran is a massive success story and also a little overhyped. There were folks who rightly pointed out that his gaudy AAA numbers were inflated to a degree by Worcester being a bit of a launching pad. There were also those who worried about swing and miss risk and the well-documented questions about his defensive value. Still, he's a really good prospect, I'm just shocked BA thinks he's in the top 30. I think if everything works out, he's a .800 OPS OF with speed and maybe average defense. It's probably worth noting that even though he's old for a prospect, the swing is brand new and there is some small chance he sees another massive step offensively. But yeah, as is, he's an exciting, dynamic prospect who could be a solid starting outfielder. The swing and miss issue is a significant risk to him hitting that though and shouldn't be dismissed. I'd feel a lot better about him if he could play CF well. - Blaze Jordan
Like Yorke, super exciting season. Tons of risk because he's a clear-cut 1B. The bat will have to play up big in order for him to be a big leaguer. The early promotion to low A (though he has yet to play since) is super encouraging. The fact that he demolished FCL pitching is great. He just needs to keep doing that every year. Some scouts worry about swing and miss risk as he moves up the ladder, despite the low K rate in the FCL (17%). - (not mentioned but worth pointing out) Groome
Groome's numbers look meh in terms of ERA, but the guy has improved throughout the season after getting rocked to start. He's striking guys out, not walking anyone. There are days in which scouts say he has a plus FB, others in which it's more average. His curveball hasn't returned to form, yet, but when it was on it was a double plus pitch. Given his development having so many hiccups due to injury, it's easy to forget that he's probably got one of the highest ceilings in the org. Him getting through this season healthy was probably the main goal, he's (crosses fingers) so far surpassed that. - Miguel Bleis
The SP folks have indicated that all reports are glowing. Other media outlets have sadi the same. Guy is possibly a top 15 prospect in a pretty decent farm, which is insane, given his age.
So yeah, I don't know if that's helpful, but that's a summary of what I've heard about some of the prospects discussed in this thread. The stats are important, but the observations of scouts is also needed for context.
Regarding the trade deadline concern, I like the point raised earlier about the tiers in the system. The trouble Boston has, compared to some other orgs, is that Boston doesn't have much in terns of close to major league role player talent in their second and third tiers.
For me it's tier 1:
Casas, Mayer, Duran
From there, the only one I would be willing to trade is Duran (side note, I may be crazy, but I could see putting Bello here)
Tier 2:
Downs, Bello, Jimenez, Yorke, Seabold, Groome
Here you got a very good prospect having a miserable season (Downs' numbers are not only bad, he's looked totally overmatched), 3 guys that are miles away, a good depth SP who would be a tradable asset but has been hurt most the season (Seabold) and a complete wild card in Groome. If I'm another organization, I don't know who here I'd target for a player like Rizzo. Maybe Jiminez?
Tier 3:
Everybody else
Here you run into the issue where everyone else is either miles away (Jordan, Bleis, Gonzalez) or likely relievers and or bench players. There is good depth, here, but there aren't the ingredients for a big trade.
If Mata, Seabold, and Ward all didn't deal with significant injuries this year, Boston might have had the ammo to match some of these trades as all 3 are/were close to the majors before getting hurt. But yeah, without them, Boston is super short on near mlb ready talent at SP or near mlb ready talent that profile to be starting positional players, who aren't named Casas.
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Tanner Houck is going to lose his prospect status in 2.1 IP if he hasn't already. I'm sure the end of season rankings would think higher of him, but they will never exist.
I still think he has to show that he can use his split/change more before I believe he's a starter. I'm not sure how these rankings would value a bulk reliever, but yeah, you look at what Whitlock has done this year and it's hard to argue that doesn't have a ton of value.
Why do you think Bello is miles away when there is a very good chance he starts next season in AAA? I'd also totally put him in tier 1 but I've been pushing the guy hard since 2019. I'm a bit of a fan boy.
Groome's numbers also look slightly better if you remove his first 3 games: 12 games, 3.92 era, 57.1 ip, 20bb/81k, 1.10 WHIP, 34.6% K rate, 8.5% BB rate.
Keith Law has also been pushing Brandon Walter, and he's not entirely alone... though his opinion that Walter may be the best pitcher in the farm is an extreme take. He turns 25 in September and is still in Greenville but he's left handed and added considerable velocity last season after switching his arm angle. He now sits in the mid 90s instead of the high 80s, and mid 90s is more than fine for a lefty He's been creating a lot of noise with his swing and miss potential. He currently has a 2.77 era in 65.0 ip, 14bb/100k. 1.09 WHIP. 36.8% K rate, 5.1% BB% rate. 18% of his pitches are strikes swinging. For reference, Groome is at 15%, Bello at 17%. FWIW, I think Bello is the best pitching prospect in the farm system and Groome is 1b. Without the history problems, maybe 1.
The Sox also have a bunch of prospects who were probably written off too early or just forgotten about because of a slow start in 2019 and no 2020. 2019 2nd round pick Cameron Cannon comes to mind. He earned a promotion to Portland after hitting .364/.421/.529 in his last 133 PA at Greenville with 8bb/11k. 2018 2nd round pick Nick Decker is another. Neither are having world beater seasons but worth nothing. Then they have players like Tyler Dearden who are having good years but are maybe slightly old for the level. It's hard getting a really good grasp on the minors this season because everyone is older than usual. SP Chris Murphy and Kutter Crawford could possibly have MLB careers too.
I think the Sox farm system had the prospects to trade. I think it's both top heavy and has plenty of depth. There are lots of interesting pieces that are overlooked, be it for age or a glaring weakness They just didn't want to move some of their top guys and other teams were willing to.
9th seems right. I've been thinking all year that scouting reports are lagging behind badly on some players and that the Sox farm is seriously underrated. Usually scouting reports are a couple months behind anyway but covid did a number.
Bello just pitched a great game a few days ago - 6IP 1ER 9K/0BB - but don't you think he needs more time to display a solid adjustment to AA competition before they send him to Worcester? Tougher competition, tough home ballpark to pitch in. I'd hope he could show some sustained success in AA first. The numbers since the call up have been rough, but SSS. Not speaking for more knowledgeable posters but I feel like he could still rise fast - he throws 99 and has a plus change. I wouldn't be surprised if he's in AAA next year at some point.
He's spent most of this season in AA and by the time the season is over, will probably have logged 15 AA starts. Maybe they keep him there longer, but they had no problem promoting him after only 31.2 IP at A+.
In AA, Bello has a 34.4% K rate, 8.2% BB% rate. Hitters are slashing .262/.328/.390 off him despite having a .396 BAbip. I don't really see what they have to gain by keeping Bello in AA to start 2022. His "struggles" in AA have been luck related. It wouldn't totally shock me if he started there, but I think it's just as likely (or more likely) he starts in AAA. Even if Brayan does start 2022 in AA, he's not miles away. He's not in the same category as Yorke and Jimenez. Although Yorke himself may not be miles away, but that's another argument I'm not willing to have yet.
You don't have to wish cast all that hard to see Bello in Boston sometime in 2022, especially if he does start the year in AAA. I'll openly admit I'm a bit more aggressive than other posters but I've found over the years the Sox tend to be aggressive. I could see Yorke easily finishing next season in Portland just as easily as him finishing it in Greenville. Sometimes half a season at a level (or less) is all a team needs to see.
You know, despite his reputation, I think we need to give some credit to Dave Dombrowski here. Casas, Duran, Bello, Houck, Groome, Mata, Jimenez - all his acquisitions. And yeah, he might have traded a bunch of those guys away, but I’m not so certain. He must have been tempted to make some deals in 2019, for instance, but he resisted.
On another note somewhat tied to the thread: I had 3 pitching binkies going into 2018 that I didn't think profiled into much more than having a cup of coffee at the Majors. 2 of them are pretty well talked about now. Here's hoping things really come in 3s.
Bryan Mata was one. He had great results at such a young age, but he didn't throw hard. He wasn't considered much of a prospect. In 2018 he went from 92 (94 max) to 96 (100 max) and he shot up the Sox prospect lists. Even made AA at the young age of 20. Who knows how he will recover after TJS, though. I never ranked him as highly as other people did though, even prior to surgery. He throws hard but doesn't really generate swing and misses.
Brayan Bello was another. He had great results in 2018 but didn't throw very hard and wasn't nearly as far along as Mata at that point. In 2019, he went from 92 (94 max) to 97 (100 max) and didn't shoot up the Sox prospects list, as he struggled in the early going. He did finish strong (10 games, 3.00 era, 54.0 ip, 8bb/59k, 1.14 WHIP). This year, he's obviously shooting up the list. I'm extremely biased and rank him higher than most. He does generate swing and misses.
The other was Jorge Rodriguez. At the time, he was a 17 year old lefty getting by on command and excellent control, sitting around 88-90. His 2019 was more of the same, continuing the command/control profile.
He's not having the same type of success in Salem, with a 5.71 era in 61.0 ip with 17bb/52k. He's still sitting around 88-90. If he ever does get that velocity bump though, look out. He turns 21 in 8 days. Without any added velocity, I'm not sure I see a future for him. At the moment, he also doesn't generate that many swing and misses.
Bryan Mata was one. He had great results at such a young age, but he didn't throw hard. He wasn't considered much of a prospect. In 2018 he went from 92 (94 max) to 96 (100 max) and he shot up the Sox prospect lists. Even made AA at the young age of 20. Who knows how he will recover after TJS, though. I never ranked him as highly as other people did though, even prior to surgery. He throws hard but doesn't really generate swing and misses.
Brayan Bello was another. He had great results in 2018 but didn't throw very hard and wasn't nearly as far along as Mata at that point. In 2019, he went from 92 (94 max) to 97 (100 max) and didn't shoot up the Sox prospects list, as he struggled in the early going. He did finish strong (10 games, 3.00 era, 54.0 ip, 8bb/59k, 1.14 WHIP). This year, he's obviously shooting up the list. I'm extremely biased and rank him higher than most. He does generate swing and misses.
The other was Jorge Rodriguez. At the time, he was a 17 year old lefty getting by on command and excellent control, sitting around 88-90. His 2019 was more of the same, continuing the command/control profile.
He's not having the same type of success in Salem, with a 5.71 era in 61.0 ip with 17bb/52k. He's still sitting around 88-90. If he ever does get that velocity bump though, look out. He turns 21 in 8 days. Without any added velocity, I'm not sure I see a future for him. At the moment, he also doesn't generate that many swing and misses.
Walter is really interesting, and that 7ish K/BB ratio is tantalizing.
His age/level makes him hard to evaluate, but it's hard to really hold it against him given that he was a senior sign followed by a cancelled minor league season. There's definitely a prospect there — two-seam, change, so-so slider — but is he a reliever?
We need to start developing our own relievers, so if he's a good lefty reliever who doesn't walk anybody, that's totally fine by me. But Keith Law is right that there could be more, if he's really throwing 95 mph two-seamers now.
That's really interesting. Maybe you're right. My general feeling is that I'd like to see a pitcher walk the walk at AA before I believe in them. That might just be kind of a crutch I lean on when trying to analyze players I rarely get to see play. I definitely agree I doubt he's "miles" away, and I didn't realize he had such a high BAbip.
Speier’s book certainly made it sound like most of the scouting and development folks in the organization were holdovers from the Epstein-Cherington era. So it was always a bit puzzling why the farm system seemed to have atrophied on DD’s watch. Nice to see some of that turning around, on top of the moves Bloom has made to bolster the system.
He's impossible to evaluate, imo. He's well below his age appropriate level because he missed a year to Covid and wasn't all that great as a senior sign. A rebuilt delivery results in a huge velocity jump. That's crazy. It would be a great story if he were a legit prospect but I'd like to see him against some higher competition.
Another guy like this is Fitzgerald. 27 YO guy signed out of Indie ball in 2018. Rebuilt his swing (launch angle guy) as a 26 year old over Covid and puts up an .891 OPS in 232 ABs in Portland and .912 in 42 in Worcester. Decent pop, good plate discipline and can passably play short, 2nd, 3rd and the corners in the OF. Hard not to get excited about a guy like that except he's only got 300 at bats as this version of himself.
Baseball is fun.
edit- i should say impossible to evaluate without going to see them in person. All we have are reports and stats. I'm sure someone watching Walter pitch can say whether or not the stuff would play in AAA or MLB.
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Agreed about Groome's numbers. They look worse because of his dismal start, and anyone who has followed his career could write that as him adjusting to a greater workload.
Regarding Bello, miss on my part. I thought he was in high A. Given his age, that's really impressive. I still don't think teams would target a guy like him this past deadline, however. Similiar to Aldo Ramirez, whom they of course traded for Schwarber, he really saw his stock rise this season. I think he'd have only returned a similar haul as Ramirez, at the deadline.
My point isn't to bury the farm. I think 9th is a fine rating, though I don't know any team's system nearly as well as Boston's. My point was that while the system is good/ borderline great it lacks the types of prospects that typically headline a big trade. It's really short on guys who you'd think would be breaking into the league next season.
RE Walter, SP discussed him a bit on their last podcast. They thought he was interesting when they saw him, but weren't blown away. But he wasn't hitting the same velocity that Law saw him at. If that's a real increase and sustainted, he's likely to rise fast. But yeah, again, I don't think he's a traditional prospect dealt as the headline peice in a trade.
To put it in another way: Boston has a great system right now. It's probably not well positioned (due to injuries to some key pitchers) to make a big trade without sacrificing someone like Casas, but it has a really nice blend of high potential players in the lower minors and very good role player pieces and relievers.
I'm very high on Fitzgerald having a major league career, too. Only thing to add to this post is that he reportedly plays a legit shortstop. Given his versatility, and ability to not suck at SS, that's a super valuable bench player
*sorry, saw you touched on the short stop defense.I need a larger phone or better eyes.
Back on the comments about Bello and trade value in general. Fangraphs had Aldo Ramirez ranked as the 19th best prospect traded at the deadline. I think it's not an unreasonable position to argue that Bello and Aldo Ramirez had roughly the same value to teams at the time of the trade (maybe with a slight edge to Bello given that Ramirez was dealing with some arm issues at the time of the deal).
When we talk about how the Boston Red Sox have the 9th best system in baseball (according to BA) anyway, we have to remember that two guys that were arguably in the top 10 for this system ranked 19th of all the players traded.
Who of the below that do folks want to deal? What players would be the center piece of a deal?
When we talk about how the Boston Red Sox have the 9th best system in baseball (according to BA) anyway, we have to remember that two guys that were arguably in the top 10 for this system ranked 19th of all the players traded.
Who of the below that do folks want to deal? What players would be the center piece of a deal?
- Casas? I don't, dude looks like he's going to be a stud
- Mayer? Couldn't given the rules.
- Duran? I'd be okay with that, but he could in theory help the club today
- Downs? Sure, I would. But given his season is he going to be appealing to teams? I still like him as a prospect but he's had a disaster of a year
- Houck? Can't really, unless we're getting a quality SP back. Is Houck the type of guy that gets you a Scherzer?
- Jiminez? I think he makes a ton of sense as a trade chit. Young, projectable. Has had some success this year, but hasn't taken a leap forward. Sort of redundant with Duran
- Bello? Again if we assume he and Aldo were rough the same in terms of value, what do we expect to have gotten for him on the deadline other than Schwarber?
Absolutely. If he's a .720 OPS bat with league average feel for hitting and can backup short for league min? That's a crazy valuable player. One of my favorite emerging guys this year. You gotta love the story.
Fitzgerald is interesting and a great story but how does a guy like that ever get a 40-man roster slot and a legit shot?
The same way Daniel Nava did? If he's legit, he'll find a way to the MLB.
Yep, Nava is a great example.
There is a clear organizational need for someone with Fitzgerald's skill set and I believe he's rule 5 eligible over the off-season. The team clearly likes versatility, I suspect he gets added.
Right now the middle infield depth is limited to Arauz (who I like as a depth/bench guy) and Downs (who I like, but is a legit prospect coming off an absolutely brutal month/season and should get regular PAs to straighten himself out)
Some of that could be fixed by ml free agents, by why bother if we have a guy with a little bit of upside available?
There is a clear organizational need for someone with Fitzgerald's skill set and I believe he's rule 5 eligible over the off-season. The team clearly likes versatility, I suspect he gets added.
Right now the middle infield depth is limited to Arauz (who I like as a depth/bench guy) and Downs (who I like, but is a legit prospect coming off an absolutely brutal month/season and should get regular PAs to straighten himself out)
Some of that could be fixed by ml free agents, by why bother if we have a guy with a little bit of upside available?
