Red Sox Free Agent Prediction Thread: Let's Find Out Who Actually Knows What They're Talking About

lxt

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Sep 12, 2012
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Massachusetts
Andrew said:
Uehara and Breslow are both under contract already. 
 
 
Koji Uehara rhp
1 year/$4.25M (2013), plus 2014 option
  • 1 year/$4.25M (2013), plus 2014 vesting option
    signed by Boston as a free agent 12/6/12
  • 13:$4.25M, 14:$4.25M vesting option (guaranteed with 55 games in 2013)
  • performance bonuses: $0.125M each for 15, 20, 25, 30, 35, 40, 45, 50 games finished

 
Craig Breslow lhp
2 years/$6.25M (2013-14), plus 2015 option
  • 2 years/$6.25M (2013-14), plus 2015 club option
    signed by Boston 1/19/13 (avoided arbitration, $2.375M-$2.325M)
  • 13:$2.325M, 14:$3.825M, 15:$4M club option, $0.1M buyout

I stand corrected - thought Breslow was a one year deal & forgot about Uehara's vesting.
 

derekson

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Drew - QO, Yankees sign him for 3/$36M
Ellsbury - QO, Red Sox sign him for 6/$125M
Salty - No QO, Cubs sign him for 2/$20M
Napoli - QO, Red Sox sign him for 2/$25M with a vesting 3rd year at ~$13M if he gets 1000 PA across 2014+2015
 

soxtalon

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Jul 13, 2005
154
Albany, NY
Salty - Contract 2/26 - offer 2/26 - Signed by Red Sox - QO YES
Ells - Contract 6/150 - Offer - 5/100 Signed by Texas - QO YES
Drew - Contract 3/33 - offer 1/14 - Signed by St. Louis - QO YES
Naps - Contract 2/27 (w/mutual 3rd year Option) - offer 2/27  - Signed by Red Sox - QO YES
 

FinanceAdvice

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Apr 1, 2008
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Papelbon's Poutine said:
Almost my exact same thoughts tho I don't know I would offer that to Salty. I'm not as big on him as many here as I think he played above his head this year but that's another convo.

I would love to see them explore the trade market for a RH power bat given their farm depth, whether they resign Nap or not. Go hard after Stanton.
Although I really like JBJ, I do not think hes an everyday CF yet.  So Id go so far as to offer 6/125 to Ellsbaury.  His WAR places him among the best CF 's in the game.  Sox need to keep strength up the middle so this is a step in the right direction.  Id also offer Drew a 2 yr deal.  Kepp Xander at third as I dont have much faith in a consistent plate discipline aloing with consistent power from Will Middlebrooks.
 

FFCI

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Not that I have much to add, but in following this thread, I wanted to add that with the new draft rules, I believe that free agency game is changing quite a bit.  Right now, I think it's at a point where free agency may be at an inflection point where there are more "bargains" than overpays because teams are overvaluing their draft picks, more wary of long-term contracts and unsure as to how players will "age" in the "clean" MLB.
 
So, I'm in the camp of extending a QO to all 4 players*.  If you can get them all back on a 1-year deals - that would be great.  More importantly, the new draft rules make obtaining additional draft picks extremely valuable - so by extending the QO's to all four - there are four chances for additional draft picks.
 
Those compensatory draft picks put the Red Sox in a position of strength in bargaining.
 
Other teams can then decide do they want to not only pay big money for the players, but lose draft picks.
 
Again, I think the waters of free agency are not what they were - as big spenders in free agency have not had the on-field success and have murkier futures than those that have avoided the big splash in free agency.  So, the Red Sox should make these offers:
 
Ellsbury:  3/$75; 4/$90; 5/$105
Drew:  2/$25
Saltalamacchia:  1/$14;
Napoli:  2/$25; 3/$33
 
If the player wants to make max compensation, go to arbitration and let the "value" be determined there - and play year-to-year.  If security and more guaranteed money is desired, then they'll have to take a little less. 
 
Of the four, Ellsbury is most likely to be gone. 
 
Here are my predictions:
 
Ellsbury, Chicago White Sox 6/$150
Drew, Boston Red Sox 2/$25
Saltalamacchia, New York Yankees, 4/$32
Napoli, Boston Red Sox, 2/$25
 
 
 
*  Note - it is now known that the Red Sox did offer arbitration to all but Salty - which is the right thing.  Even with the flexibility of a 1-year deal; $14 million is too much and probably could get him signed for 2 years. 
 

ivanvamp

captain obvious
Jul 18, 2005
6,104
My predictions:
 
- Drew gets a better deal elsewhere (St. Louis?) and signs a 2-3 year deal there.  
 
- Napoli ends up signing a 2-year deal with the Sox for something around $12 million a year.
 
- Ellsbury gets a good offer from Boston - one that is close enough for the Sox to say they gave it a legit shot - but he'll sign a mega deal elsewhere, something along the lines of 6/120.
 
- Saltalamacchia ends up on the FA market, gets a few offers, but ends up re-signing here for 3/39.
 
So the Sox get two of the four back.  They slide Bogaerts into SS and WMB starts the year at 3b and gets a chance to develop. But they keep a very close eye on Cecchini.  They plan on having JBJ start the year in CF, but they pursue another corner OF bat like Beltran, knowing they can slide Victorino over to CF.
 

PrometheusWakefield

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Salty QO Rockies 3 yrs $27m
Drew QO Cardinals 3 yrs $33m 
Ellsbury QO Mariners 6 yrs $120m
Napoli QO Red Sox 2 yrs $26m
 
Obviously we didn't give Salty the QO but I'm putting it down entry as it's what I expected.
 

ivanvamp

captain obvious
Jul 18, 2005
6,104
Papelbon's Poutine said:
Beltran got a QO, while I can see your premise I think you need a different target.
 
Yeah I didn't realize that he got that until about 20 minutes ago when I read it online.  Maybe a Corey Hart - coming off an injury (didn't play in 2013), but a very productive hitter for a bunch of years.  From 2010-2012:
 
2010:  31 hr, 102 rbi, .283/.340/.525/.865, 130 ops+
2011:  26 hr, 63 rbi, .285/.356/.510/.866, 133 ops+
2012:  30 hr, 83 rbi, .270/.334/.507/.841, 120 ops+
 
Add a nice bat like that to the lineup, and that's a pretty nice offensive replacement for JE.
 

Otis Foster

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Lose Remerswaal said:
I can't see Salty anyone taking a 3 year $27 million deal if he had been offered 1 year and more than half that amount here.
 
A hedge against a terrible FA year, or a disabling injury?
 

ivanvamp

captain obvious
Jul 18, 2005
6,104
Papelbon's Poutine said:
Ok but then who are you putting in RF to move Victorino? Because Corey Hart is not the correct answer there either.
 
The options would be:
 
(1) JBJ to CF, Victorino in RF, and Hart to replace Gomes/Nava.  
(2) Victorino to CF, Nava to RF, and Hart to LF.
(3) Victorino to CF, Hart to RF, and Gomes/Nava to LF.
or (4) JBJ to CF, Victorino in RF, and Gomes/Nava in LF - so JBJ just replaces Ellsbury, which means most likely a significant offensive downgrade at least for 2014.
 
The defensive downgrade would be significant if Victorino moves to CF and nearly any free agent comes in to play RF, no doubt.  
 

benhogan

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Ellsbury  7/147     Texas Rangers
Drew      4/48       St. Louis Cards
Napoli     1/14      Boston Red Sox
Salty       4/48      NY Yankees
 
Oct 17, 2013
451
Cleveland, OH
I think we resign Napoli and Ellsbury. Ells has to want to stay.

I say they let Drew walk because of X.

Salty goes if they can get McCann.

I say go for Stanton. Give up Dempster and Peavy along with JBJ if we keep Ells.

Also, not sure who, but think they'll sign a few relievers.
 

RedOctober3829

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Cowboys Idiots N Beards said:
I think we resign Napoli and Ellsbury. Ells has to want to stay.

I say they let Drew walk because of X.

Salty goes if they can get McCann.

I say go for Stanton. Give up Dempster and Peavy along with JBJ if we keep Ells.

Also, not sure who, but think they'll sign a few relievers.
What is your reasoning behind the idiocy that is offering them expensive and short-term players along with only 1 top prospect in exchange for the best and most cost-controlled RH power bat in the game?
 

bosockboy

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RedOctober3829 said:
What is your reasoning behind the idiocy that is offering them expensive and short-term players along with only 1 top prospect in exchange for the best and most cost-controlled RH power bat in the game?
 
He forgot to throw in Carp.
 

timelysarcasm

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Cowboys Idiots N Beards said:
I think we resign Napoli and Ellsbury. Ells has to want to stay.

I say they let Drew walk because of X.

Salty goes if they can get McCann.

I say go for Stanton. Give up Dempster and Peavy along with JBJ if we keep Ells.

Also, not sure who, but think they'll sign a few relievers.
 
Wow, why haven't the Marlins jumped on this deal already?
 
Maybe LAA beat us to the punch by offering Joe Blanton, Jason Vargas, and Randal Grichuk. 
 

lxt

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Sep 12, 2012
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Cowboys Idiots N Beards said:
I think we resign Napoli and Ellsbury. Ells has to want to stay.

I say they let Drew walk because of X.

Salty goes if they can get McCann.

I say go for Stanton. Give up Dempster and Peavy along with JBJ if we keep Ells.

Also, not sure who, but think they'll sign a few relievers.
Say what! Marlins will not give up Stanton for that boat load. They'd be looking for young controllable players not guys like Dempster or Peavy. Besides Marlins pitching is not in bad shape and from last years performance should be considered the strength of the team. They want guys like Bogaerts, Bradley, Middlebrooks, De La Rosa, Barnes & Workman for Stanton.
 

Tyrone Biggums

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Who's going 
  • Ellsbury - Texas 7 years 150 million 
  • Drew - Yankees 3 years 33 million 
  • Hanarhan - Texas 1 year 5 million 
  • Bailey - Interesting case since he is a non tender and hasn't pitched all that much (or well for that matter) in two years. I'm choosing the Rays. They have a need for a closer and Bailey should be an inexpensive option that could come rather cheap especially if he has a chance to pitch in late innings after the ASB. Bailey gets 2 years 6 million. 
Who's staying 
  • Salty. I have him pegged for 2 years 24 million with a mutual option for a 3rd year based on performance metrics. Here is the deal with him. He has the best year out of any free agent catcher, is 28 years old and has the trust of the pitching staff. For the people who believe that he would be asking for a long term deal this type of agreement would allow him to head back onto the market in his prime and ideally set him up for an even bigger payday. Salty will get paid. Whether its by Boston or a team like the Yankees, Phillies, Cubs etc...Despite having a good system that is pretty deep in catching depth logic wins and Salty returns for at least 2 more years. Dan Butler sits in a corner and cries. 
  • Napoli - Recently read that his hip is looking a little better than the end of last season. This isn't a surprise due to him not playing behind the plate for 70 or so games a year anymore. Napoli became a very good defensive 1st baseman and showed the ability to hit when the game is on the line. Plus why would he ever want to give up his night job at McGreevey's? He gets 2 years and 26 million with some security. Zero risk for the Red Sox. 
Who's coming
     Chris Young is the first choice. Can handle all 3 outfield positions and can smoke lefties. Perfect platoon partner for JBJ while he gets acclimated in the majors. My guess is that a 1 year 5 million contract will get it done. Young had a bad year and realizes that Boston doesn't have a loaded outfield without Ellsbury. JBJ is unproven and Victorino will not last a full season. He's essentially a #3 outfielder. You could do a lot worse here.
     
     My next guess is a little tricky due to the Sox pitching depth. This is a guy who they've been linked to as recently as last season and if healthy could be a good investment. Josh Johnson. Like Bailey, Johnson hasn't pitched at all or all that well in two seasons. However he does have the Marlins connection going for him, he's going to come cheap and the Sox can afford to wait on him. Obviously in this scenario the Sox decide to cut bait on Dempster and trade him for whatever. The Sox give Johnson a 2 year deal. I don't feel comfortable guessing the numbers on this but maybe anywhere between 10-15 million for the duration of the contract. Again this guy isn't essential by any means and I don't think they even need him. That being said the title says "predict" so I'm predicting an out of left field signing. 
 
    Speaking of out of left field signing what about Joba Chamberlain? Yes I realize that he was god awful last year even if you look at advanced metrics. I'm having a tough time figuring out why I'm even writing about him. So why am I? Because I believe he has the stuff to be a good reliever. He's going to come very cheap and will be a late season signing. The Sox could sign a sexy name like Nathan or Mujica but this is the type of under the radar signing that could pan out for a team that was able to get a lot out of their pitching staff. Plus he's going to be cheap enough to either move or cut if it doesn't work out. Going multiyear with relievers usually doesn't work. Plus with the clubhouse back I doubt he acts up. 
 
Oct 17, 2013
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Cleveland, OH
I do want to say that I never said that's who we trade for him. Poor wording but I mainly meant to get rid of those people. But if they'd take them, cool. Not as if Miami cares about who they trot out there.
 

ivanvamp

captain obvious
Jul 18, 2005
6,104
Tyrone Biggums said:
Who's going 
  • Ellsbury - Texas 7 years 150 million 
  • Drew - Yankees 3 years 33 million 
 
Just curious why you think Drew goes to the Yankees.  They just signed Jeter for another year for $12 million.  Do you see Drew as 2b insurance in case Cano heads elsewhere, or is this just to have a replacement in hand at SS for 2015?
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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ivanvamp said:
 
Just curious why you think Drew goes to the Yankees.  They just signed Jeter for another year for $12 million.  Do you see Drew as 2b insurance in case Cano heads elsewhere, or is this just to have a replacement in hand at SS for 2015?
 
Reportedly, Drew turned down a chance to sign with the Yankees last winter because they weren't guaranteeing he'd be a SS full-time and he didn't want to be a utility player.  Considering Jeter's still there and there's no indication he's changing positions, I doubt Drew's stance has changed.  He'll sign somewhere, even if it's for less, to play SS full time before he signs with a team that has an incumbent SS.
 

Tyrone Biggums

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ivanvamp said:
 
Just curious why you think Drew goes to the Yankees.  They just signed Jeter for another year for $12 million.  Do you see Drew as 2b insurance in case Cano heads elsewhere, or is this just to have a replacement in hand at SS for 2015?
I don't necessarily think Jeter is the SS next year if they bring someone like Drew into the fold. I could see them shifting him to the outfield (it's been talked about before) and especially at the tail end of his career it might be a good move. Guys like Yount and Ripken have been moved off the position at the end before. I just get the feeling that some how some way Drew ends up in the Bronx.
 

ivanvamp

captain obvious
Jul 18, 2005
6,104
There's no way in presumably Jeter's last year that the Yankees will move him from SS to the OF.  Well, I guess I can't say *NO WAY*, but it's almost impossible for me to see it happening.
 

Tyrone Biggums

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ivanvamp said:
There's no way in presumably Jeter's last year that the Yankees will move him from SS to the OF.  Well, I guess I can't say *NO WAY*, but it's almost impossible for me to see it happening.
If those two HOFers can be moved off SS then why not Jeter? Who says they don't even shift him to 3rd or OF to replace Granderson? If I'm wrong I'm wrong. Stranger stuff has happened though and he would be a longer term solution at a shallow talent position around baseball.
 

ivanvamp

captain obvious
Jul 18, 2005
6,104
On Corey Hart.  From (http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/writer/jon-heyman/24191882/free-agent-rankings-no-1-cano-to-65-market-stronger-than-some-think):
 
"37. 1B Corey Hart: Has talent and tools; could be good for a multiyear deal, even off a knee injury (though the agent and GM don't think so). Agent: 1 year, $6M. GM: 1 year, $8M. Me:2 years, $14M."
 
I'd love to have him for 1/6 or even 2/14.  Can play backup OF (though not a great defender), would be a terrific RH platoon partner in the OF, can play 1b, DH.  Probably could find 400 ab for him over the course of the season.  Heck, might even be a better 1b option than Napoli for that price.
 

ivanvamp

captain obvious
Jul 18, 2005
6,104
Tyrone Biggums said:
If those two HOFers can be moved off SS then why not Jeter? Who says they don't even shift him to 3rd or OF to replace Granderson? If I'm wrong I'm wrong. Stranger stuff has happened though and he would be a longer term solution at a shallow talent position around baseball.
 
Which is why I said that I supposed I couldn't say *NO WAY* it happens.  But it's exceedingly difficult for me to see that happening. 
 

Tyrone Biggums

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ivanvamp said:
On Corey Hart.  From (http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/writer/jon-heyman/24191882/free-agent-rankings-no-1-cano-to-65-market-stronger-than-some-think):
 
"37. 1B Corey Hart: Has talent and tools; could be good for a multiyear deal, even off a knee injury (though the agent and GM don't think so). Agent: 1 year, $6M. GM: 1 year, $8M. Me:2 years, $14M."
 
I'd love to have him for 1/6 or even 2/14.  Can play backup OF (though not a great defender), would be a terrific RH platoon partner in the OF, can play 1b, DH.  Probably could find 400 ab for him over the course of the season.  Heck, might even be a better 1b option than Napoli for that price.
I love Hart. If Napoli leaves then this is who I want. He can also play CF in a pinch and not be Gomes like defensively. I actually would see him getting more along the lines of 2/18. But if they lose Napoli or trade Nava I'm 100% on board with Hart.
 

SaveBooFerriss

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Cowboys Idiots N Beards said:
I agree, Drew won't go there. Besides they have a few SS coming up. That Cito Culver kid looks pretty good from what I've seen him play.
 
I am sorry, but I couldn't let this comment on Culver pass.  In four seasons, he has a .650 OPS and just made it to High A at the end of last season (where he admittedly hit well).  He'll almost certainly start the year back in High A and will probably struggle to have an OPS over 750.  For perspective, the Red Sox probable ML starting SS is two months younger than Culver.  I would be shocked if Culver is ever a ML regular and will have to improve significantly to get a cup of coffee.  He is the equivalent of Gibson in the Sox org.   
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Tyrone Biggums said:
If those two HOFers can be moved off SS then why not Jeter? Who says they don't even shift him to 3rd or OF to replace Granderson? If I'm wrong I'm wrong. Stranger stuff has happened though and he would be a longer term solution at a shallow talent position around baseball.
 
Yount changed positions at age 29-30 because of a shoulder injury that hampered his ability to make throws across the diamond...he played as many years in CF as he did at SS.  Ripken moved at age 36 in large part because he wanted to continue his consecutive games streak and playing SS was becoming too demanding...he played four years as a 3B before retiring.
 
Jeter wouldn't be moving to extend his career.  Moving would be admitting he's no longer capable of playing the position (which very well could be true).  At his age, he's more likely to retire at that realization than to learn a new position.  And there's no way his ego is going to let his farewell tour by "marred" by his stumbling around in LF when he could be stumbling around at SS where he "belongs".
 

The Best Catch in 100 Years

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SaveBooFerriss said:
 
I am sorry, but I couldn't let this comment on Culver pass.  In four seasons, he has a .650 OPS and just made it to High A at the end of last season (where he admittedly hit well).  He'll almost certainly start the year back in High A and will probably struggle to have an OPS over 750.  For perspective, the Red Sox probable ML starting SS is two months younger than Culver.  I would be shocked if Culver is ever a ML regular and will have to improve significantly to get a cup of coffee.  He is the equivalent of Gibson in the Sox org.   
Haha, yes, and you mentioned that there are "a few SS" coming up in the Yankees org Cowboys? Who are the other guys?
 

Reverend

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OK, so I've updated the tables. There lots of variation in predictions and disagreement both with respect to money and years, so let the trash talking hashing out of what seems to make sense and what seems off begin.
 
Also, the Red Sox threw a bit of a kibosh into this by not extending a QO to Salty--I really thought they'd all get QOs and so did almost everyone else. That's fascinating, though, and an opportunity to look at just how much the QO affects the market by seeing how the predictions about Salty fare against those made about the others (although obviously the incorrectness of our collective that Salty would get a QO is initial evidence that the team sees some things differently than we expect). If people want, we can set up another table for Salty predictions now that we know he didn't get a QO which could be instructive.
 
Back to the first point, though--people's predictions are pretty wildly divergent at times. That's interesting to me.
 

Cumberland Blues

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I dunno that we need to track the revisions, but given the lack of a qualifying offer - I'd certainly revise my expectations for Salty downward.  If the Sox were willing to go 3x12 (my prediction above), I doubt they'd be alarmed by 1x14.  The lack of a QO may in fact increase the likelihood of Sallty seeing as much as 3x12 elsewhere.  If he stays, I'd be surprised by anything much more than 3x9 or 2x10. 
 

Devizier

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I like Corey Hart, but lets not pretend that he can be counted on to play centerfield. He hasn't played that position in 7 years, and only did so in limited increments.
 
 

Cumberland Blues said:
I dunno that we need to track the revisions, but given the lack of a qualifying offer - I'd certainly revise my expectations for Salty downward.  If the Sox were willing to go 3x12 (my prediction above), I doubt they'd be alarmed by 1x14.  The lack of a QO may in fact increase the likelihood of Sallty seeing as much as 3x12 elsewhere.  If he stays, I'd be surprised by anything much more than 3x9 or 2x10. 
 
Agreed on that. I'm not going to revise, but Salty is definitely the prediction I have zero confidence in.
 

nothumb

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Ellsbury 6/140 SEA or NYM. I don't see Texas getting in on him. They should and probably will focus on shoring up their pitching. If they make a splash on a FA position player it should be a catcher, but maybe if they whiff on other targets they will get desperate.
 
Drew 3/35 STL or NYM
 
Napoli either accepts the QO or gets something like 2/22 with incentives and/or vesting option to stay in BOS
 
Salty - my head tells me someone will go 4/40ish for him without the QO. BUT I really don't know who it will be. NYY are in the mix because you never know how their primary FA targets will play out, but I think they would rather have McCann, and there are also a lot of scenarios where they go after other, more glamorous FA and roll with what they have at C, or grab Pierzynski. I think the top three options other than NYY and BOS are LAA, CWS, TEX. I'll say CWS for 4/42. I could also see him coming back to BOS in the neighborhood of 3/30 depending on what else happens.
 
I don't think the Sox get in on McCann at his final price and I don't think they should. I think he ends up with TEX or NYY.
 
My preference (stated in the other thread) is to mostly roll with the kids but to grab Beltran on short money. I'm thrilled to go 2/30 for him and I wouldn't be upset if they go higher, depending on other moves.
 
Extending Lester is not a priority for me until the spring at the earliest unless he is willing to give a major discount, which I doubt.
 
Relievers: Sox will kick the tires on Oliver Perez, Jason Frasor, Ryan Madson, Jesse Crain. Also consider Bailey but... meh. I don't think they spend a lot on FA relievers. Maybe they get one of those guys, or none. Candidates for NRI / minor league deals: Matt Guerrier, Rich Hill, NIck Masset.
 

JimD

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The Best Catch in 100 Years said:
Maybe a bit overzealous on the years/AAV but 1 for 1 bitches
 
You only missed the total dollars by 138 percent - kudos.
 

Pearl Wilson

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20 out of 21 underestimated the Ellsbury contract and NOT ONE PERSON predicted the Yankees?
 
I am not mocking. I did not put myself out there and I have no right to mock. 
 
I am, however, amused.
 

benhogan

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Can we have some intelligent discussion about Salty's final deal (3years for $21MM),  maybe a post-mortem.  Not throwing stones in glass houses, since my 'Salty house' was pretty crystallized (I predicted 4yrs for $48MM???)
 
There are a lot of really clever guys on this site who got this WAY wrong (along with Keith Law, Alex Speir, etc).  Some viewed Salty as a top 5 MLB catcher, some even liked Salty better then McCann, wow can't believe how wrong this was...
 

Devizier

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Pearl Wilson said:
20 out of 21 underestimated the Ellsbury contract and NOT ONE PERSON predicted the Yankees?
 
I am not mocking. I did not put myself out there and I have no right to mock. 
 
I am, however, amused.
 
I didn't make the cut for some reason, but I'm happy to say that I overestimated AAV in lieu of years (6/150). I did think Ellsbury made more sense as a Mariner, while Cano made more sense as a Yankee. Still do, in fact.