Red Sox Free Agent Prediction Thread: Let's Find Out Who Actually Knows What They're Talking About

Reverend

for king and country
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
There has already been a lot of chatter about what sort of offers the Red Sox will give certain key free agents. The Red Sox approach should be particularly interesting to follow given their stated and observed new strategy--possibly geared to the post-steroid age--of finding limited year deals to maximize financial flexibility and possibly eschewing higher priced super-stars.
 
Early returns on this strategy have been promising. What remains to be seen is the degree to which they can stick to it or if market forces move their hand, and also how other teams in the market possibly rethink their own approach given both the success of the Red Sox and also what may be the realities of gambling on longer years and older players in the post steroid age.
 
To this end, this thread will aggregate posters' prediction about what different players in the market will ultimately get. There has been lots of discussion in other threads, so I thought it would be fun to bring things together here. I figure we can leave the banter in the other threads, but here, each poster can post their predictions and an explanation, and once we see a comparison, we can compare and contrast what people will think will happen and why.
 
Please consider the ramification of the new Collective Bargaining Agreement when making these predictions--otherwise your predictions will be dumb. Specifically, as per an mlb.com article from 2011:
 
• The current compensation system for losing "Type A" and "Type B" free agents will be eliminated. Under the new system, teams will receive compensation for losing a free agent only if they offer -- and the player rejects -- a guaranteed one-year contract equal to the average salary of the league's 125 highest-paid players. Compensation for losing such players will consist of one Draft pick at the end of the first round.
• When clubs sign a compensation-eligible player, they will forfeit their own first-round selection, or their second-round selection if they pick in the top 10.
 
 
If you are interested, you can find a nice explanation in long form, as well as an explanation of why they made the changes here. The Qualifying Offer for 2014 has been set at $14m.
 
In making predictions, predict what they will receive in the market in terms of Years/TotalSalary, and then what you think the highest the Red Sox will or should go (it remains to be seen if we will get this info in some cases); and then if you want to add some flair, predict what team will sign them. Obviously, you can also indicate that you think the player will end up taking the Qualifying Offer.
 
Example:
Drew, 3/45, QO, Detroit
I hear Detroit might need a short stop that can hit.
 
Here are the key players that have been discussed thus far:
Drew
Ellsbury
Napoli
Saltalamacchia 
 
Let's see who can gauge the market.
 
Edit: QOs have to go out by 5pm on the 5th day after the World Series, so we'll know who got QOs by then, and I'll alter things accordingly.
 

Reverend

for king and country
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
[tablegrid= Salty ]Poster Contract Red Sox Offer Signing Team QO? tBCin100Y 4/50   MIA   benhogan 4/48   NYY   MMSP 3/45 3/45 Red Sox Yes ivanvamp 3/39 3/39 Red Sox   selahsean 3/39 3/39 Red Sox Yes Snodgrass's Muff 3/39 3/39 Red Sox Yes Cellar-Door 3/37 3/37 Red Sox Yes Cumberland Blues 3/36 3/36 Red Sox Yes RedOctober3829 3/36 3/36 Red Sox   Yaz4Ever 3/36 3/36 Red Sox Yes FFCI 4/32 1/14.1 NYY Yes Papelbon's Poutine 3/30 3/30 or QO Red Sox Yes Youks Baltic Roots 3/30 3/30 Red Sox Yes Skiponzo 2/27.5 2/27.5 Red Sox Yes PrometheusWakefield 3/27   COL Yes beezer 2/26 2/26 Red Sox Yes soxtalon 2/26 2/26 Red Sox Yes DrewDawg 2/25 2/25 Red Sox Yes TyroneBiggums 2/24 + Opt. 2/24 + Opt. Red Sox   derekson 2/20   CHC No Stanley Steamer 2/20 2/20 Red Sox Yes [/tablegrid] 
 

Reverend

for king and country
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
[tablegrid= Ellsbury ]Poster  Contract  Red Sox Offer  Signing Team  QO?  tBCin100Y 7/160   SEA   FFCI 6/150 5/105 CHW Yes soxtalon 6/150 5/100 TEX Yes TyroneBiggums 7/150   TEX   Yaz4Ever 7/150 5/115 SEA Yes benhogan 7/147   TEX   RedOctober3829 6/144   TEX   Cellar-Door 7/134   TEX Yes MMSP 6/132 5/100 SEA Yes selahsean 6/130 5/115 SEA Yes Youks Baltic Roots 6/130 5/95 NYM Yes beezer 7/126   NYM Yes derekson 6/125 6/125 Red Sox Yes DrewDawg 6/120 5/100 SEA Yes ivanvamp 6/120       PrometheusWakefield 6/120   SEA Yes Snodgrass's Muff 6/120 5/100 DET Yes Stanley Steamer 6/120 1/14.1 TX/SEA/NYM Yes Papelbon's Poutine 6/110   NYM/TEX Yes Cumberland Blues 5/110 - 6/120   Not Red Sox Yes Skiponzo 5/115 5/115 Red Sox Yes [/tablegrid] 
 

Reverend

for king and country
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
[tablegrid= Drew ]Poster  Contract  Red Sox Offer  Signing Team  QO?  tBCin100Y 4/55   NYM   selahsean 4/52 1/14.1 StL Yes Cumberland Blues 4/48 - 4/52   NYC Yes benhogan 4/48   StL   Papelbon's Poutine 4/48   StL Yes Snodgrass's Muff 4/48 (VO) 1/14.1 StL Yes derekson 3/36   NYY Yes Skiponzo 3/36 1/14.1 NYM Yes Cellar-Door 3/34   StL Yes MMSP 3/33 1/14.1 NYM Yes PrometheusWakefield 3/33   StL Yes soxtalon 3/33 1/14.1 StL Yes TyroneBiggums 3/33   NYY   Youks Baltic Roots 3/30 1/14.1 SFG Yes beezer 3/30   NYM Yes RedOctober3829 3/27   NYM   Stanley Steamer 3/27 1/14.1 StL/NYY Yes FFCI 2/25 2/25 Red Sox Yes DrewDawg 2/23 1/14.1 PIT Yes ivanvamp "Money." - Louis CK   StL?   Yaz4Ever 1/15   StL No [/tablegrid]
 

Reverend

for king and country
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
[tablegrid= Napoli ]Poster  Contract  Red Sox Offer  Signing Team  QO?  tBCin100Y 3/50   NYM   Yaz4Ever 3/36 3/36 Red Sox Yes RedOctober3829 2/30 2/30 Red Sox   soxtalon 2/27 + option 2/27 + option Red Sox Yes selahsean 2/26 2/26 Red Sox Yes beezer 2/26 2/26 Red Sox Yes Cellar-Door 2/26 2/26 Red Sox Yes Papelbon's Poutine 2/26 2/26 or QO Red Sox Yes PrometheusWakefield 2/26   Red Sox Yes TyroneBiggums 2/26 2/26 Red Sox   derekson 2/25 + VO 2/25 + VO Red Sox Yes FFCI 2/25 2/25 Red Sox Yes Youks Baltic Roots 2/24+$6m 2/24+$6m Red Sox Yes ivanvamp 2/24 2/24 Red Sox   Stanley Steamer 2/16+$20m 2/16+$20m incts. Red Sox Yes benhogan   1/14.1     Cumberland Blues 1/14.1 1/14.1 Red Sox Yes DrewDawg 1/14.1 1/14.1 Red Sox Yes MMSP 1/14.1 1/14.1 Red Sox Yes Skiponzo 1/14.1 1/14.1 Red Sox Yes Snodgrass's Muff 1/14.1 1/14.1 Red Sox Yes [/tablegrid]
 

koufax37

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 20, 2005
2,463
I would like to see more continuity than in the past.
 
Before looking outside the organization:
 
1) Offer Ells what we think his value is.  He will likely get Pujols offended at his 9 figure offer and sign for more than he is worth to us with another club, but I hope we figure out his price for a team without cash problems, and give him a chance to stay if he chooses mojo over unspendable dollars (what do you do with your second hundred mil these days anyway?).  If he leaves as I expect, let Nava/Gomes/Victorino/JBJ figure out who the top three are.
 
2) Figure out if Drew or Middlebrooks is a better companion to Xander.  I'm really worried about Middlebrooks' bat and plate discipline.  While his youth and cost and power are nice, I don't know that his 2014-2015 WAR is ahead of Drew.  I'm not sure on the Hanley/Cabrera/Machado SS/3B Mojo for Xander yet, but I think Drew is a little bit like Hardy, and keeping Xander at 3B for a while could be the best fit.  So I would like to see Drew sign a two year deal, and then see how things play out, likely trading one of them if Middlebrooks proves he is ready to produce at the MLB level.
 
3) Re-sign Salty.  I think that he hurt his value down the stretch and in the post season, and that is good for us.  He and Ross are a great tandem and it is a place for continuity.
 
4) Re-sign Napoli.  The hip is fine, let's get another couple years.
 
5) Trade Dempster.  He has value outside of Boston, but doesn't fit into our plans without an injury, and I'm not sure in case of an injury he outperforms our young guns.
 
6) Figure out what our bullpen looks like around Koji.  Bailey and Miller get factored back in, which means Workman back to the rotation.
 
7) Don't overpay Lester's shining moment.  I'm excited about his 2014 outlook and glad to have him on the team, but I don't think his 2015-2018 years are likely to be a bargain.  Make any extension shorter years and dollars than are being talked about right now, and make it a couple months into the season after the champaign buzz has worn off.  A tip of the hat to Jon who performed awesomely when it mattered, and is a good teammate, but I think his real value and his real price won't match up long term for us.
 
8) Push reset and start counting down our magic number from 163.
 
Edit: Bailey isn't ready until late in the 2014 season, so not a factor right now on figuring out the bullpen.
 

Youks Baltic Roots

Member
SoSH Member
May 31, 2001
891
London, Ontario, Canada
QO to Napoli, try to resign him for a 2 year deal (QO is $14.1M, will likely have to go 2 yrs/$24M guaranteed plus $6M in GP bonuses).
QO to Salty, try to resign him to a 2 year deal (again, QO means you have to make it worthwhile for the second year - so maybe 2 yrs/$22M - don't see him beating that on the open market. Maybe stretch to 3 yrs/30M, but I would really rather not). I guess to me it is how good they really think he is at the non-hitting aspects of catching. Because he is brutal against good arms.
QO to Drew. If he signs, Xander goes to third base and Middlebrooks either goes to AAA or (more likely) as part of a deal to go elsewhere.  More likely, Drew moves on and we try X at short and Will gets a last shot at third.
QO to Ellsbury. Give him a respectable offer, but let him go.  Sort of like what we did with Johnny Damon.  JBJ becomes center fielder.
Extend Lester.
Deal Dempster for minor league depth, or set up relief depth.
 
If we can't keep Nap and Salty, then the door opens to a bigger contract elsewhere, like Choo or even more money being thrown at Ellsbury.  If he wasn't a china doll this would be my preference.  By far the most talented of the QO players, but so fragile that I am advocating for Napoli and Drew 2.0 before him.
 

RedOctober3829

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 19, 2005
39,376
deep inside Guido territory
--Gauge Lackey's trade value.  We've got huge depth at SP so just see what is out there for Lackey's team-friendly contract.
--Re-sign Mike Napoli
--Let Ellsbury go.
--Salty return on a QO?
--Beltran on a 2-year deal to let JBJ ease his way in as a 4th OF.  I don't think he's quite ready to play everyday in CF.  Victorino goes to CF and Beltran to RF.
--Trade Dempster.
 

Snodgrass'Muff

oppresses WARmongers
SoSH Member
Mar 11, 2008
27,644
Roanoke, VA
absintheofmalaise said:
So the cost of Choo would be a large AAV, a draft pick and the loss of the slot money for that pick. Have I got that correct?
 
Yep.  That sums it up nicely.  Pass.
 
1. I'd like to see them extend Lester for 4 years with a vesting option for a 5th.  Hopefully at a discounted rate.
2. Qualifying offers go out to Napoli, Salty, Drew and Ellsbury.  I expect Napoli would accept, Drew and Ellsbury would pass (especially after Drew is told that if he comes back, Xander is the starter) and that the offer to Salty will depress his market to keep his price down for the Sox to...
3. Re-sign Salty.  I'm thinking something close to last year's 3/39 staple will get it done.  Maybe a 4th year on a vesting option or something.
4. Hand shortstop to Bogaerts and center field to Bradley*
5. Sign a reliever or two to fill in the middle relief corps.  There are quite a few attractive options.  A good 7th/8th inning reliever should emerge from a group of Workman, Britton, and whomever they sign to slot in behind Koji and Tazawa.  Jesse Crain, should be high on that list.  There will be bullpen help from Pawtucket as well.
6. Trade Dempster.  Find a team willing to give up a low minors lottery ticket prospect.  The Sox subsidize his contract and get some talent in return.  Everyone is happy.
7. Shop Peavy.  See if anyone is willing to overpay for him.  Be prepared to go to war with Lester, Buchholz, Lackey, Peavy and Doubront, expecting the kids to fill in for injuries (looking at you Clay) but be willing to pull the trigger if a team offers something nice for him.  Having a mix of Webster, DLR and Workman at the back of the rotation is still very solid, and we'll have Ranaudo and Barnes in Pawtucket should things go badly.
 
*I'm assuming Ellsbury will sign for more than I'm willing to offer.  5/100?  Great, bring him back.  6 years or more than 100 million?  I'll take the pick.
 

RedOctober3829

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 19, 2005
39,376
deep inside Guido territory
BOSTON -- The Red Sox are planning to make the $14.1-million qualifying offer to shortstop Stephen Drew and first baseman Mike Napoli in addition to star outfielder Jacoby Ellsbury.
The Red Sox won a World Series thanks in part to their short-term deals, and Drew and Napoli became vital parts of the team after signing such deals. The Red Sox would be happy to bring them both back, but by making the qualifying offer, it also sets them up to receive compensatory first-round draft choices should either leave.
 
http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/writer/jon-heyman/24166267/red-sox-plan-to-make-qualifying-offers-to-napoli-drew
 

Brianish

Member
SoSH Member
Dec 11, 2008
4,845
I'm actually jumping on the Choo bandwagon. He's not great in CF and certainly not in Fenway's RF, but I would trust him in Fenway's left. With his arm, he would cut down a lot of guys trying to stretch wall ball singles into doubles. He's on the wrong side of 30, but not by much, and with his incredible OBP consistency, I wouldn't expect as much of a drop-off as some others. I have the (totally subjective) sense that he's been underrated for most of his career, so I'm not sure the price would be insane. I wouldn't go past 5/90, though. 
 
I'd also take a long, hard look at Kendrys Morales for 1B. 
 
Give Drew and Ells QOs, hand SS and CF to Jackie and Xander, and brace for some growing pains. Try to retain Salty, since they seem to love him so much. Stick with WMB at 3rd and deal with the streakiness until Cecchini forces the issue or a trade candidate appears. 
 
While the young-ins settle in, you can run this lineup out there.
Choo
Pedey
Papi
Morales
Victorino
Salty
WMB
X
JBJ
 
If all goes according to plan, and the kids develop, we look a little more like this:
JBJ
Pedey
Papi
Morales
X
Choo
Salty
WMB
Shane
 
I'd go to war with either of those lineups. 
 

Snodgrass'Muff

oppresses WARmongers
SoSH Member
Mar 11, 2008
27,644
Roanoke, VA
Papelbon's Poutine said:
I would love to see them explore the trade market for a RH power bat given their farm depth, whether they resign Nap or not. Go hard after Stanton.
 
This reminds me a bit of where most of us were after 2010.  We had the depth and we were thrilled to spend it on Gonzalez.  That didn't work out so great, though that was only a part of a much larger problem.  And while the Crawford and Beckett deals compounded the money issue that came in the aftermath of trading for Gonzalez (I'm sure they'd extend Stanton as soon as they could as well), the Gonzalez trade was a big part of why the upper minors ended up so barren.
 
Said differently, I can't imagine the price being low enough for me to be comfortable with that trade.  If I'm the Marlins the price starts at Bogaerts and I don't take any more calls until Ben comes around to that.  They have no reason not to ask for the stars and the moon on Stanton.
 
Edit: Moved my response over here.
 

NoXInNixon

Member
SoSH Member
Mar 24, 2008
4,052
RedOctober3829 said:
--Gauge Lackey's trade value.  We've got huge depth at SP so just see what is out there for Lackey's team-friendly contract.
If they're looking to trade a SP, I think they ought to be most aggressive with Buchholz. Given the flashes of brilliance he has shown and the injury problems he has faced, I think he's the guy another team is most likely to overvalue, since if he can ever stay healthy he's a Cy Young candidate. For a team that expects to be contending for a championship every year, that's too big of a risk to take, but for a mid-market team that needs a bunch of things to go right, it's a gamble definitely worth taking.
 

Reverend

for king and country
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
OK, I've introduced some tables to give a sense of how we can track people's predictions (Youks and Snod, please feel free to round out your information). I think which team will ultimately sign each player (especially if it's not the Red Sox) is less important to have an idea of as to get a sense of where different people think the market will ultimately go for these players. And then I think it'll be interesting to see if people think the market will be higher than the Red Sox will go.
 

Cumberland Blues

Dope
Dope
Sep 9, 2001
4,774
I think all four get a QO and I have my homer optimist shades on guessing all but Drew will be back.
 
Drew - declines QO and gets 4x12-13M from one of the NY teams (please be the Mets, I don't want to hate Stephen). 
Ellsbury - declines QO - re-ups for 6x20 or 5x22
Napoli - accepts QO, I think both sides happy to go year-to-year.
Saltalamacchia - declines QO - re-ups for 3yrs at some number a bit less than the $14M/yr QO....say 3x12M.
 
Entirely possible (likely even) that I've grossly underestimated the market w/ the flood of TV dollars pouring in. 
 

Stanley Steamer

Well-Known Member
Silver Supporter
SoSH Member
Jan 11, 2012
998
Rossland, BC
I'll take a stab at it. I think the hardest part is the QO question. Putting a QO down clearly makes teams more reluctant to sign a player, moreso that you'd be helping the DEFENDING WORLD SERIES CHAMPION BOSTON RED SOX!!!!

1) Drew: 3/27 with, 3/36 without. Can't decide for sure if Sox will offer, but I think they will, because one more year of Drew at a slight overpay isn't bad for roster construction. If he goes, I see the Cards or Yanks going for it. Cards need more offense, Yanks need slick fielder and Jeter replacement, plus short RF porch helps.

2)Ellsbury: 6/120 with, 6/135 without. No brainer-- Sox offer QO. I suspect the Rangers might be involved, fits a need and they don't mind spending. Wonder if Seattle could bite, or Mets.

3)Napoli: 2/20 with, 2/32 without. If it comes down to it, Sox will offer QO, but I think they sign him in any case-- 2/16 guaranteed, with incentives rising to 2/36.

In the end I see Nap and Salty back next year on team-friendly deals, Els and Drew gone when the price and years get too high.

4)Saltalamacchia: Hardest to predict. I think he gets 3/25 with, 4/50 without. Really hard to say if Sox offer the QO. If they do, it will likely dry up his market. Still, 1/14 would be only a marginal overpay, so I say they do it, and he ultimately signs with them for 2/20, with some sort of mutual option. I don't have a feel for who else might want him, perhaps the Phils or Braves. Yanks would look if they don't go after McCann.
 

Morgan's Magic Snowplow

Well-Known Member
Gold Supporter
SoSH Member
Jul 2, 2006
16,409
Philadelphia
All four guys get QOs.

Ellsbury - Declines QO, Sox make a real run at him, offering something like 5/100, but he signs with Seattle for 6/132.

Drew - Declines QO, Sox do not offer him a multiyear contract, signs with Mets for 3/33.

Napoli - Accepts QO after testing the market a bit and finding only two year deals with a lot of money non-guaranteed.

Salty - Declines QO, resigns with Sox for 3/45.
 

Snodgrass'Muff

oppresses WARmongers
SoSH Member
Mar 11, 2008
27,644
Roanoke, VA
Here's my missing information.
 
Drew: I think we'll see the Tigers, Cardinals and Mets get into a bit of a bidding war for him with the Cardinals going a 4th year to get it done.  4/48 with the 4th year as a vesting option.
 
Ellsbury: He's not getting 7/140 but Boras will keep insisting he has a team willing to go 7 years and/or 140 million right up until the end.  The Mets are likely to be involved here as well, and I think the Mariners, the Cubs, the Rangers, the Reds, and the Yankees will all come up in rumors.  I wouldn't be surprised to see the Nationals pop up late in the process to try and improve their outfield.
 
But at the end of the day, I can't quite rule out the Tigers as a dark horse since Ilitch seems determined to bring Detroit a title before he dies no matter how much he has to spend.  6/120  It moves Dirks to the bench and hedges against Hunter realizing he's old.
 

DrewDawg

Dorito Dink
SoSH Member
Dec 16, 2010
36,074
SS/3B: These are intertwined. I have an internal argument when I think about this. I *think* they're going to give X the SS job next year, and bring in a veteran guy to spell him but I can't locate who that guy would be. The FA list of SS is filled with lots of flotsam and a few guys that aren't going to want backup slots (Escobar (cheap club option though), Drew, Peralta). Furcal is coming back, but really only plays SS so wouldn't be the best utility guy. However, I also think they could decide Drew is the guy and X is the 3B but I can't imagine they'd get much for WMB if they cut bait. And is it too soon to make that call with WMB? Essentially one full season in the bigs (615 ABs) with a 102 OPS+. To make it all official like, I'll go with QO to Drew, but Drew goes to Pittsburgh for 2/$23 with option. Opening day lineup has X and WMB on left side of IF. I would not be shocked if Drew's back for another season though.
 
1B: Napoli, probably on the same type of deal as this season, because he's proven he can play here and apparently likes it. Let's say Napoli 1/$14 after a QO
 
OF: Obviously a QO to Ellsbury, and I'd make an offer--maybe 5/$100, but it won't be enough--Seattle for 6/$118. I'd kick the tires on Choo, but he may want too much. Coco Crisp could be a FA :) Official prediction: Beltran 2/$27.5 with incentives. Don't know what this means for JBJ though.
 
C: Salty on a 2 year deal, maybe some kind of option on 3rd year. Salty 2/$25 after a QO
 
SP: I'd say goodbye to Dempster, some NL team would take a flier. I'd hold Peavy for his $14.5 (no way he gets his 2015 player option) and run Lester, Lackey, Buchholz, Doubront, Peavy out there
 
RP: Crapshoot. Interesting guys are Brian Wilson, Jesse Crain, Chad Gaudin (ROOGY? He was really good against RHH), Boone Logan and Manny Parra.
 

Youks Baltic Roots

Member
SoSH Member
May 31, 2001
891
London, Ontario, Canada
To fill in the blanks for Reverend:
 
Salty - Contract 3/30 - offer 3/30 - team Red Sox - QO yes
Ells - Contract 6/130 - offer 5/95 - team Mets - QO yes
Drew - Contract 3/30 - offer 1/14.1 - team Giants - QO yes
Naps - Contract 2/24+6M bonuses - offer 2/24+6M bonuses - team Red Sox - QO yes
 

beezer

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 9, 2009
552
All 4 get QOs
 
Ellsbury, QO, Signs 7/126 (18M/year) Mets
Drew QO Signs 3/30 Giants
Napoli QO, ReSigns 2/26 Red Sox
Salty QO, Resigns 2/26 Red Sox
 
Salty will be the last one as he'll look for more and I wouldn't be surprised if Boston gave him 3/39, but with no other teams willing to give their first round pick to sign him, I think the Sox can get him back on a 2 year deal instead.
 

Cellar-Door

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 1, 2006
14,725
Qualifying offers to all 4
 
Napoli - Back at 2/26
Drew- Saint Louis 3/34
Salty- Back at 3/37
Ells- Texas 7/134
 

selahsean

lurker
Dec 22, 2005
202
Salty - Contract 3/39 - offer 3/39 - team Red Sox - QO yes
Ells - Contract 6/130 - offer 5/115 - team Mariners - QO yes
Drew - Contract 4/52 - offer 1/14.1 - team Cardinals - QO yes
Naps - Contract 2/26 - offer 2/26 - team Red Sox - QO yes
 

Yaz4Ever

stumps for Trump
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Napoli 3/$36 Boston QO
Drew 1/$15 Cardinals No QO
Salty 3/$36 Boston QO
Ellsbury 7/$150 Seattle Red Sox offer will be 5/$115 but he'll go to Seattle when they offer 7 years QO
 
I'd love to see if we could somehow reacquire Iglesias from Detroit now that Peralta's suspension is over (although he'll likely become the DH or move to 3B so Miggy can DH).  With Iglesias at SS and Xander at 3B, we trade WMB for help elsewhere.
 
I also think we need an upgrade to Salty behind the plate, but think he'll be back for a few years anyway.
 

Skiponzo

Member
SoSH Member
Salty - Contract 2/27.5 - offer 2/27.5 - team Red Sox - QO yes
Ells - Contract 5/115 - offered more by Mets and Rangers (approx 7/135) but choses to stay with Sox - QO yes
Drew - Contract 3/36 - offer 1/14 - team Mets - QO yes
Naps - Contract 1/14 - offer 1/14 - team Red Sox - QO yes (he accepts)

 
 

absintheofmalaise

too many flowers
Dope
SoSH Member
Mar 16, 2005
12,908
The gran facenda
Yaz4Ever said:
 
Napoli 3/$36 Boston QO
Drew 1/$15 Cardinals No QO
Salty 3/$36 Boston QO
Ellsbury 7/$150 Seattle Red Sox offer will be 5/$115 but he'll go to Seattle when they offer 7 years QO
 
I'd love to see if we could somehow reacquire Iglesias from Detroit now that Peralta's suspension is over (although he'll likely become the DH or move to 3B so Miggy can DH).  With Iglesias at SS and Xander at 3B, we trade WMB for help elsewhere.
 
I also think we need an upgrade to Salty behind the plate, but think he'll be back for a few years anyway.
 
Why would you want to sign Napoli for three years? I'm all for offering him a QO, but would never sign him for three years guaranteed. I would do two years at the most. 
 
Why no QO to Drew? And the one year to StL is only $1mm more than a QO is and he has said that he would like to stay in Boston if possible. And I do not want Iggy back. Why do you?
 
Who would you upgrade Salty with and who would you be willing to trade away for this person? 
 

Yaz4Ever

stumps for Trump
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
absintheofmalaise said:
Why would you want to sign Napoli for three years? I'm all for offering him a QO, but would never sign him for three years guaranteed. I would do two years at the most. 
 
Why no QO to Drew? And the one year to StL is only $1mm more than a QO is and he has said that he would like to stay in Boston if possible. And I do not want Iggy back. Why do you?
I don't want to sign Napoli for more than 2 years, but I think the Sox brass might.  This is, after all, a prediction thread not a suggestion thread.
 
That said, my utter disdain for Drew likely clouded my judgement there.  I was thrilled to get him (although I wanted the younger version of him - you know, when he didn't suck), but my opinion has changed mightily over the year and I felt Iggy was more deserving of the opportunity.
 
I want Iggy back because I think he's going to be the best defensive SS for years to come.  He's young, his hitting improved more than most of us expected, and SS defense is worth a ton to me.  Drew's only salvation this season was his glove - Iggy's is better, he'll be cheaper longer, and I think he'll hit at least as well as Drew does over the next 5 years or so.
 

Cellar-Door

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 1, 2006
14,725
Yaz4Ever said:
 
I want Iggy back because I think he's going to be the best defensive SS for years to come.  He's young, his hitting improved more than most of us expected, and SS defense is worth a ton to me.  Drew's only salvation this season was his glove - Iggy's is better, he'll be cheaper longer, and I think he'll hit at least as well as Drew does over the next 5 years or so.
His only salvation was his glove?
Among SS with at least 500 AB, he was 4th in OPS and wRC+
 

rodderick

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 24, 2009
6,549
Belo Horizonte - Brazil
Yaz4Ever said:
I don't want to sign Napoli for more than 2 years, but I think the Sox brass might.  This is, after all, a prediction thread not a suggestion thread.
 
That said, my utter disdain for Drew likely clouded my judgement there.  I was thrilled to get him (although I wanted the younger version of him - you know, when he didn't suck), but my opinion has changed mightily over the year and I felt Iggy was more deserving of the opportunity.
 
I want Iggy back because I think he's going to be the best defensive SS for years to come.  He's young, his hitting improved more than most of us expected, and SS defense is worth a ton to me.  Drew's only salvation this season was his glove - Iggy's is better, he'll be cheaper longer, and I think he'll hit at least as well as Drew does over the next 5 years or so.
Just out of curiosity, what makes you believe that? Since, you know, Iglesias hasn't hit for shit at any level he's played professional baseball in.
 

ehaz

Member
SoSH Member
Sep 30, 2007
2,276
Drew - 4/50 to St Louis
Ellsbury - 7/160 to Texas
Napoli - 2/26 resigns
Salty - 3/42 resigns
Beltran - 2/35 Boston
Choo - 5/95 SEA
Garza - 5/90 PIT
McCann - 5/90 NYY
Cano - 8/220 NYY
Tanaka - 60M post with 6/90 - NYY (CHI NL darkhorse)
 

Devizier

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 3, 2000
9,915
Somewhere
I'm assuming 5% inflation per offseason and using comparable players as benchmarks.
 
Saltalamacchia 3/45, Red Sox. Same age, but not quite as good as Miguel Montero (5/60) was entering the free agency period. We're two offseasons down the line (~10% inflation) and the Sox will have to pay a premium for a shorter contract, which is what they seem to want.
Ellsbury 6/150, Mariners. I think the Sox are going to be surprised here. Ellsbury is a year younger and arguably better than Josh Hamilton was last season, and Hamilton got 5/125.  
Napoli for qualifying offer, Red Sox. He performed well, but the hip injury and the draft pick compensation is going to scare off potential suitors. The only big market team that may want Napoli is Texas, and they let him walk last year.
Drew 4/50, Cardinals. Makes too much sense.
 
The Sox extend qualifying offers on all four, so they'll be +2 draft picks by my estimation.
 

CaskNFappin

rembrat's protegé
May 20, 2013
254
Woonsocket, RI
I see alot of predictions that Ells will sign with Seattle, but I'm not really sure he's the solution to their problems.  Their one of the lightest hitting teams in the league and they'd be far better off seeking a trade or FA signing that's gonna put some bop in a lineup that's only power threat is Kyle Seager.  
 
We've freed up alot of money, and have many of our positions being cost-controlled in the future.  I'm in the camp of "pay the man his money."  Ellsbury won't be worth his contract in the later years, so front load it......but keep this guy around and avoid having to worry about leadoff anytime soon.  JBJ becomes a trade chip, so be it.  
 

Yaz4Ever

stumps for Trump
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
absintheofmalaise said:
Out of all SS with 500 or more PAs, only three SS had a higher wOBA than Drew - Tulowitzki, Desmond and Lowrie. They were also the only three with a higher wRC+ than Drew. This is from FanGraphs
 
 
Cellar-Door said:
His only salvation was his glove?
Among SS with at least 500 AB, he was 4th in OPS and wRC+
 
 
rodderick said:
Just out of curiosity, what makes you believe that? Since, you know, Iglesias hasn't hit for shit at any level he's played professional baseball in.
$600 to the Jimmy Fund says I'm right about this over the next 5 years - $200 for each of you.  It's a long bet, but it'll give you each time to save up the $200.
 

DennyDoyle'sBoil

Found no thrill on Blueberry Hill
SoSH Member
Sep 9, 2008
26,607
AZ
QO for all.  Drew 3/30 to Cardinals.  Salty 3/33 Red Sox.  Napoli 2/20 Red Sox plus incentives up to $8.  Ells, Sox go 6/126, but Texas signs him at 7/147.
 
Edit:  Math.  Changed Sox offer from 6/132 to 6/126.
 

DrewDawg

Dorito Dink
SoSH Member
Dec 16, 2010
36,074
CaskNFappin said:
I see alot of predictions that Ells will sign with Seattle, but I'm not really sure he's the solution to their problems.  
 
True.
 
But lots and lots of teams sign lots and lots of guys that don't solve their problems.
 

rodderick

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 24, 2009
6,549
Belo Horizonte - Brazil
Yaz4Ever said:
 
 
 
 
$600 to the Jimmy Fund says I'm right about this over the next 5 years - $200 for each of you.  It's a long bet, but it'll give you each time to save up the $200.
What are you talking about? People are just curious as to why you came to the conclusion that Iglesias will be a better offensive player than Drew in the next 5 years. If it's just a hunch, or a product of fawning over a former prospect, fine, but putting money into it isn't answering any of our questions.
 

HriniakPosterChild

Well-Known Member
Gold Supporter
SoSH Member
Jul 6, 2006
10,342
500 feet above Lake Sammammish
koufax37 said:
4) Re-sign Napoli.  The hip is fine, let's get another couple years.
 
 
Fine? Really? How do you know that? What I heard was this...
 
radsoxfan said:
 
 
When people refer to Napoli's hip collapsing, they are talking about his femoral head (the top of the femur) collapsing.  The femoral head is part of the hip joint.  I was just pointing out that the amount of avascular necrosis in Napoli's femoral head matters.  All things being equal, the more necrosis (dead bone), the more likely it will end up collapsing. The Red Sox know, the team docs know, Napoli knows, but we don't. There is a spectrum of the disease, so just knowing that Nap has "AVN" isn't enough to have a great understanding of the true risk.  Even if you do have all the info, it's still hard to predict. So for us on the outside, the error bars are even greater.
 
As far as which path Nap would take if his hip did collapse.... a steeper course versus a more gradual one... who knows. Both are possible.  I just think that since he's been stable for at least a year, that's a reason to be more optimistic than they might have been before the season. Now there are a few data points of stability, and at least Nap has proven he can have a productive year with his hips in their current state.  Again, anything could still happen, and his hip condition is still going to be a very relevant factor in his next contract.
 
I'd think a series of QO's (with a capable backup in case it all hits the fan mid-season) is a much better way to manage the risk. I have a hard time imagining an MLB team coughing up a draft pick for a market-price free agent with a questionable hip.
 

HriniakPosterChild

Well-Known Member
Gold Supporter
SoSH Member
Jul 6, 2006
10,342
500 feet above Lake Sammammish
CaskNFappin said:
I see alot of predictions that Ells will sign with Seattle, but I'm not really sure he's the solution to their problems.  Their one of the lightest hitting teams in the league and they'd be far better off seeking a trade or FA signing that's gonna put some bop in a lineup that's only power threat is Kyle Seager.  
 
The M's have far too many problems for any single player to solve them all, but a huge issue this last year was sticking DH's in the outfield and hoping the balls would fly effortlessly into their gloves. Ellsbury could be a huge help there.
 

selahsean

lurker
Dec 22, 2005
202
CaskNFappin said:
I see alot of predictions that Ells will sign with Seattle, but I'm not really sure he's the solution to their problems.  Their one of the lightest hitting teams in the league and they'd be far better off seeking a trade or FA signing that's gonna put some bop in a lineup that's only power threat is Kyle Seager.  
 
We've freed up alot of money, and have many of our positions being cost-controlled in the future.  I'm in the camp of "pay the man his money."  Ellsbury won't be worth his contract in the later years, so front load it......but keep this guy around and avoid having to worry about leadoff anytime soon.  JBJ becomes a trade chip, so be it.  
 
I agree with all of this I just think the Mariners are desperate and I think Jack Z is backed into a corner now.  That and the NW thing are reasons I think it could happen.  That being said I hope they do pay him his money and front load the deal.
 

lxt

lurker
Sep 12, 2012
525
Massachusetts
QO:
Napoli, Ellsbury, Salty & Drew.
 
Signings:
Lester 4 -5yrs $19million/year
Napoli 2yrs $28million
Salty 3yrs $30-33million
Drew 2yrs - $25million
 
Ellsbury likely gone - 5yrs/$80million where I top out.
 
Resign Uehara & Breslow.
 
Let Hanrahan go.
 
Trade Dempster ... NL for young bullpen arms ... take on 1/2 salary.
 
Trade for Peter Bourjos - LAA - CF.
 
Sign Brian Roberts - 1yr $2.5million - for IF help. Sign Chris Perez - RP - 1-2yrs for $4million/year
 
Give Jackie Bradley another shot. Get Middlebrooks time at 1B.
 

Andrew

broke his neck in costa rica
SoSH Member
Jan 20, 2006
12,011
Western Massachusetts
Uehara and Breslow are both under contract already. 
 
 
Koji Uehara rhp
1 year/$4.25M (2013), plus 2014 option
  • 1 year/$4.25M (2013), plus 2014 vesting option
    signed by Boston as a free agent 12/6/12
  • 13:$4.25M, 14:$4.25M vesting option (guaranteed with 55 games in 2013)
  • performance bonuses: $0.125M each for 15, 20, 25, 30, 35, 40, 45, 50 games finished

 
Craig Breslow lhp
2 years/$6.25M (2013-14), plus 2015 option
  • 2 years/$6.25M (2013-14), plus 2015 club option
    signed by Boston 1/19/13 (avoided arbitration, $2.375M-$2.325M)
  • 13:$2.325M, 14:$3.825M, 15:$4M club option, $0.1M buyout

 

Cellar-Door

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 1, 2006
14,725
Yaz4Ever said:
 
 
 
 
$600 to the Jimmy Fund says I'm right about this over the next 5 years - $200 for each of you.  It's a long bet, but it'll give you each time to save up the $200.
What does Iglesias have to do with anything?
I was just pointing out that your statements about Drew had no basis, since he was one of the best offensive SS in baseball.
 

Snodgrass'Muff

oppresses WARmongers
SoSH Member
Mar 11, 2008
27,644
Roanoke, VA
I'll grant you that it is an imperfect comparison, but Stanton has his red flags as well.  He has played 150, 123 and 116 games in the last three years.  The injuries keeping him off the field tend to be in his legs, which is not a great sign.  His knee in 2012, his hammy in 2013.  He also never really had a stretch of dominant hitting like he's had in previous years.  Maybe the hammy never fully recovered, but for a guy who is going to command top prospects, then top dollars to extend, you'd like to see a little more consistency with being able to stay on the field and be one of the best players while doing so.
 
Even if the package is something like Owens, Cecchini, Bradley and Betts, it's too much for a guy who has had trouble staying on the field early in his career.  Yes, the upside for Stanton is huge, but there's a very real concern over his health, and even the "talked down" price is likely to be high enough that I'm not comfortable with the risk.
 
Of course, I still don't see any reason the Marlins should accept anything less than a package with Bogaerts this winter.  They don't need to trade him right now, so unless a team is willing to blow them away, they should be patient and hope someone panics or a contender with a deep farm has a star go down with an injury.
 

Sprowl

mikey lowell of the sandbox
Dope
Jun 27, 2006
31,624
Haiku
Andrew said:
Uehara and Breslow are both under contract already.
 
Cherington's value signings tend toward the multi-year model. Uehara, Victorino, Gomes and Dempster are all around for 2 or 3 years.
 
I'd love to have Iggy back, but that won't happen until he fails as a starting shortstop first. He did his part for the 2013 Red Sox, both for and in opposition, and now he's gone. When you add up his WAR for the Sox during the regular season, and his WAR against for the Tigers, he probably deserves a full playoff share.