One benefit for Boston is that when Devers was 20 he was in the Majors to stay for dirt cheap and Peña was slugging .309 in Low A. This year in the Majors his OBP was .289.
Red Sox extend Devers—11 years, $332 million
- Thread starter RedOctober3829
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Thx for this. Led me to look into Joseph Lannin, the guy who acquired Babe Ruth, who I wasn't really familiar with at all:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joseph_Lannin
& learn more about Harry Frazee:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harry_Frazee
I'm sure you guys have discussed this at length in the past, but it's crazy to think about how different Red Sox history may have been if Lannin kept the team or sold to someone different.
There's not much reason to compare the two, but Pena is a Gold Glove SS in just his rookie year, Devers has, um, issues defensively. Pena had a 4.8 bWAR last year, Devers 4.4.
Right he’s a nice player and the original comparison was made by someone just about their ages, then someone started talking about their prime years. I’m just saying I doubt the Red Sox really care how much either player make and wouldn’t want find out whether Peña is Adam Everett or Jose Iglesias, or Ozzie Smith.
That’s fine and so I will but bWAR is only one stat and it isn’t meant to be predictive.
And Devers had 4.9 fWAR, while Pena had 3.4.
I really, really enjoy watching Pena play SS, but I think that bWAR takes defense into account a lot more than it should. In 6 years, starting from his age 20 season, Devers doesn't have a single wOBA lower than what Pena put up last season, and his last 3 full seasons (excluding COVID year) are 60+ points higher than what Pena did.
Edit: To fix what post I was quoting.
Fangraphs writeup of the deal, including some interesting analysis and projections. They have him aging to a projected .259/.328/.438 | 105 wRC+ in 2034, and note that Devers is so much younger than most of the other players to receive mega-deals.
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-red-sox-have-finally-extended-rafael-devers/
I should probably explain. I think Devers is the better player & will be a better player over the next 5 years.
But Pena is under team control through '27. Let's generously call that 5/$45m.
The next 5 years of Devers' contract are likely the most valuable & they cost about $150.5m.
Over those 1st five years for the same price you can have Pena + a 5/$105m player, or short term spending of $21m per year (in reality it would be about $29m extra this year & less starting in a couple years). & that's even before getting to the last 6/$180.5m of Devers contract which is likely to not have positive value.
So even though I like the signing & I think Devers is a fair amount better than Pena, I think you still have to take that trade immediately if the Astros offered it, even with Mayer on the way. It kind of underscores the value of cost controlled talent...
I'd agree the comparisons are always going to be approximate. . .but as imperfect as they are they do help us gauge value. And that's mostly why this topic came up in the first place. Some people in this thread have suggested that Dever's bat can be slotted into DH with an Ortizian like effect. Ortiz's offensive numbers were amazing. In the AL he had 8 top-5 OPS seasons. Do we reasonably expect that from Devers? If so why?
The B-Ref comps have been brought up a few times and I admit I got pretty scared by them at first, but as I look into them, I'm not sure we should take it too seriously;
Eric Chavez: This has been his most similar comp for a few years and it's easy to see why especially in terms of his offensive profile - Devers has a slight edge but they're similar - the edge for Chavez was his defense which resulted in multiple gold gloes and while I don't think the metrics loved him as much, it was a plus. The scary thing on this comp is the offensive decline with the inability to play a full season after his Age 29 year - with that said looking at the injury profile that big mid portion looks like it was anchored by back issues, which feels very player dependent as opposed to profile, and later on some ugly fluke stuff (broken foot rounding the bases and a concussion). 12.5 WAR for the deal would be pretty disastrous but based on him being a decent offensive player even at the very end, it's injuries more than declination that caused that.
Ryan Zimmerman: This is a bit better at least 15.6 WAR - he was more of an on-base guy than Raffy. The upside here is he played 10 seasons from his Age 26 season and he was a valuable offensive player through and through. The downside is similar to Chavez in that he was injured so often there are a ton of half seasons in there and he defensively cratered as well. As to the injuries themselves, unlike Chavez he seemed to have a slew of different maladies that I find harder to project.
Bob Horner: This is where I expose my ignorance...not familiar with this masher. His performance superimposed onto Devers would be an unmitigated disaster of under 5 WAR. It seems like a mix of injuries (a trend here) and some MLB collusion sidetracked the heck out of that career. Eye test wise, he also didn't seem to have the fitness of a guy who was gonna last forever at the active corner position
David Wright: With how it ended it seems worse than it probably was - 23 WAR from his 26 year season on and that's with being pretty much a non factor after his Age 31 season - like Chavez it was back issues that took him out a opposed to a more natural decline (I mean injuries are natural but you know what I mean)
Scott Rolen: This one is kind of the dream - 48 WAR in the 11 seasons starting at Age 26 with his offensive peak in the span - Rolen buffed this with gold glove level defense. The other upside here is that while Rolen was healthyish with a fairly normal offensive decline...he wasn't an ironman missing at least 20 games a year on the backend. We don't need Raffy to stay healthy for 11 years for this to work well.
Evan Longoria - He seems like the midground here - 11 years from his Age 26 season to retirement, 31 WAR in that timeframe - a rather healthy front half with a decline to plateau on offense and being a fairly effective part-time player in the last three years. This would give Devers about a $10m/WAR value which I think we'd probably take if not love. He went from FT to 3/4 to PT in a fairly normal lookig fashion
Troy Glaus: 18.1 WAR over 8 seasons (retired) -a bit of an odd one as he mashed til the end, retired at 33, and seemed like he could still play -though more anecdoal takes seemed to agree he was gassed/done. It's something worth considering - Glaus retired but Devers might play that out. Given the number of early retirees in this comp there's at least a real possibility of just running out of gas
Harlond Clift was a WWII era player, I'm honestly not sure how much he'd apply here
Nolen Arenado is very much in progress but with 34 WAR in his 26-31 seasons thatalone would probably be a win for this contract
Ron Santo - Played in 9 seasons from his Age 26 year on, absolutely raked and produced 43.5 bWAR in that timeframe. Absolute win if the Sox get a Santo-esque production out of him.Santo, like Rolen, was a better defensive player and had a higher floor but even purely offensively he'd be well worth it value wise.
Obviously there are concerns here - common and uncommon injuries sidleined many of his best comps and a massive contract I think makes it more likely Devers (as would anyone) sit on the sideline/IL and take in the pay as opposed to retire. But there's still a decent floor on most of these guys which would not be good but not be an absolute disaster and I'd be surprised if he doesn't at least deliver good value on the front half. The Sox having the DH available (which many of these guys didn't have) and hopefully a better understanding of long term health than prior generations might help this.
I'm optimistic at least. We hope for a Rolen/Santo/Arenado path, and maybe expect a Longoria, and I think any of those four make this okay. Even a David Wright trajectory with an extra year or two works out. We will see of course. I'd think the Sox evaluated Raffy's current medicals and made a somewhat informed call on that.
Eric Chavez: This has been his most similar comp for a few years and it's easy to see why especially in terms of his offensive profile - Devers has a slight edge but they're similar - the edge for Chavez was his defense which resulted in multiple gold gloes and while I don't think the metrics loved him as much, it was a plus. The scary thing on this comp is the offensive decline with the inability to play a full season after his Age 29 year - with that said looking at the injury profile that big mid portion looks like it was anchored by back issues, which feels very player dependent as opposed to profile, and later on some ugly fluke stuff (broken foot rounding the bases and a concussion). 12.5 WAR for the deal would be pretty disastrous but based on him being a decent offensive player even at the very end, it's injuries more than declination that caused that.
Ryan Zimmerman: This is a bit better at least 15.6 WAR - he was more of an on-base guy than Raffy. The upside here is he played 10 seasons from his Age 26 season and he was a valuable offensive player through and through. The downside is similar to Chavez in that he was injured so often there are a ton of half seasons in there and he defensively cratered as well. As to the injuries themselves, unlike Chavez he seemed to have a slew of different maladies that I find harder to project.
Bob Horner: This is where I expose my ignorance...not familiar with this masher. His performance superimposed onto Devers would be an unmitigated disaster of under 5 WAR. It seems like a mix of injuries (a trend here) and some MLB collusion sidetracked the heck out of that career. Eye test wise, he also didn't seem to have the fitness of a guy who was gonna last forever at the active corner position
David Wright: With how it ended it seems worse than it probably was - 23 WAR from his 26 year season on and that's with being pretty much a non factor after his Age 31 season - like Chavez it was back issues that took him out a opposed to a more natural decline (I mean injuries are natural but you know what I mean)
Scott Rolen: This one is kind of the dream - 48 WAR in the 11 seasons starting at Age 26 with his offensive peak in the span - Rolen buffed this with gold glove level defense. The other upside here is that while Rolen was healthyish with a fairly normal offensive decline...he wasn't an ironman missing at least 20 games a year on the backend. We don't need Raffy to stay healthy for 11 years for this to work well.
Evan Longoria - He seems like the midground here - 11 years from his Age 26 season to retirement, 31 WAR in that timeframe - a rather healthy front half with a decline to plateau on offense and being a fairly effective part-time player in the last three years. This would give Devers about a $10m/WAR value which I think we'd probably take if not love. He went from FT to 3/4 to PT in a fairly normal lookig fashion
Troy Glaus: 18.1 WAR over 8 seasons (retired) -a bit of an odd one as he mashed til the end, retired at 33, and seemed like he could still play -though more anecdoal takes seemed to agree he was gassed/done. It's something worth considering - Glaus retired but Devers might play that out. Given the number of early retirees in this comp there's at least a real possibility of just running out of gas
Harlond Clift was a WWII era player, I'm honestly not sure how much he'd apply here
Nolen Arenado is very much in progress but with 34 WAR in his 26-31 seasons thatalone would probably be a win for this contract
Ron Santo - Played in 9 seasons from his Age 26 year on, absolutely raked and produced 43.5 bWAR in that timeframe. Absolute win if the Sox get a Santo-esque production out of him.Santo, like Rolen, was a better defensive player and had a higher floor but even purely offensively he'd be well worth it value wise.
Obviously there are concerns here - common and uncommon injuries sidleined many of his best comps and a massive contract I think makes it more likely Devers (as would anyone) sit on the sideline/IL and take in the pay as opposed to retire. But there's still a decent floor on most of these guys which would not be good but not be an absolute disaster and I'd be surprised if he doesn't at least deliver good value on the front half. The Sox having the DH available (which many of these guys didn't have) and hopefully a better understanding of long term health than prior generations might help this.
I'm optimistic at least. We hope for a Rolen/Santo/Arenado path, and maybe expect a Longoria, and I think any of those four make this okay. Even a David Wright trajectory with an extra year or two works out. We will see of course. I'd think the Sox evaluated Raffy's current medicals and made a somewhat informed call on that.
Thanks for this. I don't love the Chavez comp. Chavez was never as good of an offensive player as Raffy is today. He put up a career best 134 at age 26. Raffy has already hit 132 at age 22, 134 at 35, and 141 at 26. I think there is going to be further improvement, and not a slide.
Glaus is an interest comp, his body did him in. I can't see the same happening with Raffy, partly because I don't think he'll be playing 3B all that long.
I don't get the impression that you are referring to me specifically with your first point, but you won't find any posts from me claiming he's cheap. I don't think I've posted here on that subject but I've argued the opposite with friends for the last few years.
To clarify my position, I don't believe the Devers deal has anything to do with Henry's reception at Fenway the other day. That's just a happy coincidence.
I do believe that the fan outcry has had enough of an effect on his bottom line at this point that he approved a deal that he would not have under whatever financial parameters he typically uses to make decisions. If it hasn't yet felt that pain, then I believe he at least was concerned about the added effect of Devers leaving.
Regarding my own personal disdain for Henry, it's nothing personal with me directly. Its a combination of having a few connections around Fenway and the fact that I've been fortunate enough that my career has taken me to some very interesting places and I've met a lot of very interesting (and insanely wealthy) people.
I've gotten quite adept at reading people over that time and he strikes me as particularly out of touch with people and really society in general. Moreso than most of ultra wealthy. It's kinda that simple.
I'd be happy to explain more in detail via PM but I'm being intentionally vague as to not derail the thread with my non-verifiable and admittedly fringe musings
Not picking on you, just highlighting part of your post to ask a general question? Exactly what was the reception that Henry received at the WC? Was he booed and heckled by a few fans that saw him going into Fenway or was he introduced to the crowd or shown on the giant screen and widely booed? I mean I get the frustration by some fans, but if this was a few folks greeting him with signs, chants and boos as he arrived is it that a big deal or is it an opportunity for some to make it a big deal? IMO the owner of the Boston Red Sox is already going to draw a certain measure of negative fan reaction simply for being part of the Pittsburgh Penguin ownership. His OTHER team has come to play OUR hockey team in OUR town with the perverse twist of him owning the team that we would primarily be filling HIS ball park to watch.I don't get the impression that you are referring to me specifically with your first point, but you won't find any posts from me claiming he's cheap. I don't think I've posted here on that subject but I've argued the opposite with friends for the last few years.
To clarify my position, I don't believe the Devers deal has anything to do with Henry's reception at Fenway the other day. That's just a happy coincidence.
I do believe that the fan outcry has had enough of an effect on his bottom line at this point that he approved a deal that he would not have under whatever financial parameters he typically uses to make decisions. If it hasn't yet felt that pain, then I believe he at least was concerned about the added effect of Devers leaving.
Regarding my own personal disdain for Henry, it's nothing personal with me directly. Its a combination of having a few connections around Fenway and the fact that I've been fortunate enough that my career has taken me to some very interesting places and I've met a lot of very interesting (and insanely wealthy) people.
I've gotten quite adept at reading people over that time and he strikes me as particularly out of touch with people and really society in general. Moreso than most of ultra wealthy. It's kinda that simple.
I'd be happy to explain more in detail via PM but I'm being intentionally vague as to not derail the thread with my non-verifiable and admittedly fringe musings
Ohtani was clear that he preferred the west coast when he took his initial meetings. I haven’t heard him or his agent say he will consider the east coast next time.
True, but now he’s lived here a few years and has actually visited the east coast multiple times. Who knows what his thinking is.
While I don't agree about the fan concerns affecting the Devers deal, I appreciate the thoughtful reply. Besides your "out of touch" and my "weird" might be the same thing!I don't get the impression that you are referring to me specifically with your first point, but you won't find any posts from me claiming he's cheap. I don't think I've posted here on that subject but I've argued the opposite with friends for the last few years.
To clarify my position, I don't believe the Devers deal has anything to do with Henry's reception at Fenway the other day. That's just a happy coincidence.
I do believe that the fan outcry has had enough of an effect on his bottom line at this point that he approved a deal that he would not have under whatever financial parameters he typically uses to make decisions. If it hasn't yet felt that pain, then I believe he at least was concerned about the added effect of Devers leaving.
Regarding my own personal disdain for Henry, it's nothing personal with me directly. Its a combination of having a few connections around Fenway and the fact that I've been fortunate enough that my career has taken me to some very interesting places and I've met a lot of very interesting (and insanely wealthy) people.
I've gotten quite adept at reading people over that time and he strikes me as particularly out of touch with people and really society in general. Moreso than most of ultra wealthy. It's kinda that simple.
I'd be happy to explain more in detail via PM but I'm being intentionally vague as to not derail the thread with my non-verifiable and admittedly fringe musings
Peña, a 24-year-old rookie, put up a very similar age season as young Carlos Baerga, for example, since he's in the news. Baerga was a six-win player a year earlier too. I like Peña but with just one season in the bigs, which was a statistical outlier compared to his *minor league stats*, let's not consider him much of a comp for anyone based on that lone season. He could easily just end up being Carlos Baerga. This is a fun discussion, but the reliability of his stats vs Devers is quite different.
Even knowing nothing, it seems highly likely that he's thinking about how it might be cool to make the playoffs. If he doesn't think the Angels can figure it out, then all bets are off.
Honestly, I don't really understand the west coast preference for a Japanese baseball player. Does he like driving around LA? Maybe. Palm trees are nice. It's not actually much closer to Japan by plane than the northeast, about a 500-mile difference thanks to the curvature of the Earth. There is more of a Japanese community in the big west coast cities, but now that he's lived here (and can't exactly go hang out in the community too often), maybe that's ceased to be a comfort factor for him.
My quick Google says 15 hour flight from NYC to Tokyo, just under 10 from LA to Tokyo.
I think it's a little closer than that. There are nonstop flights from Logan to Tokyo that are just under 14 hours, while nonstop flights from LAX to Tokyo are just under 12 hours.
I don't think I was comping him? I was willing to accept him in a trade. Baerga may be in the news, but he's a pretty weird comp to Peña.
& Peña had much better stats in the minors than he did in the Majors. His hitting was fairly average last season in the majors (102 wRC+) after:
'18: A- ball, 100 wRC+ (20 y/o)
'19: A ball, 138 wRC+ (21 y/o)
'19: A+ ball, 146 wRC+ (21 y/o)
'20: Year off for COVID
'21: FL Complex, 152 wRC+ (23 y/o)
'21: AAA ball, 126 wRC+ (23 y/o)
He had to skip AA & still did fine in his AAA stint, including 10 homers in 133 ABs. I don't see any reason to believe he won't improve as an offensive player. He chased way too much (8th percentile), & walks too little (4th percentile), & his OAA was admittedly high (92nd percentile), but to some extent that's because he's fast (95th percentile sprint speed), so it looks more like there is room to grow in his profile if he gets more plate discipline, & his defense is an elite tool already.
He also had a 186 wRC+ in 61 postseason PAs which is obviously a small sample size...buuuuut still pretty exciting projecting forward. Plus he's a local (his family moved from the Dominican Republic to Providence when he was 9 & he went to college @ UMaine).
It's all a moot point, but I would absolutely make that trade 100 times out of 100.
I'm seeing just over 13 hours to Tokyo/Narita from NY or BOS to just under 11 from LAX. Sounds like there are various formulae, and that's commercial. Either way, it's too far away to do without some serious time off.
OK, and I'd be tempted, but by comparison Devers tore through the minors as a teenager. At every age level Devers has been miles beyond Peña. So the only argument in favor of such a trade would be the position play and a single year in which they were arguably on the same level -- although Peña's .715 OPS would be easily the worst of Devers' career (currently .854 over six seasons).
I had no idea who Harlond Clift was but Wikipedia says that his career was thrown off by a "serious case of the mumps and a horse-riding injury."
Seems like the general rule is that if Raffi can stay healthy, he'll be worth his contract and if he can't, he probably won't be. Of course, in the modern age, the Red Sox can mitigate some of the bad health outcomes with insurance.
It's my understanding that many asian feel more comfortable on the West Coast just because of the sheer size of the asian communities in the big West Coast cities - Seattle, SF, LA, etc.
He’s such an expressive person that he manages to connect with the fan base just fine. I think we all have a sense of who he is as a person.
Also, for the Hispanophones out there, he’s quite funny and charming in Spanish.
The return flights going east are shorter. But basically 10/12 from/to LA, 12/14 from/to east coast.
The argument in favor of the trade is the implied contract based on the 5 years of control they have on Peña compared to 11/$331m for Devers. I'm not saying Pena is a better player or likely to be a better player - although he might be.
I think the time zone difference is a medium big deal in terms of maintaining connection with a preexisting fan base. A night game in San Francisco starts at noon, Tokyo time; a night game in Boston starts at 9 AM.
We hear about geography all the time but it rarely ends up being a factor. Judge is a Cali guy and just reupped with the Yankees. Cole said the same things about Cali and then signed with the Yankees. Similarly, I believe Otani's next deal will be based on total $, years, AAV and where he fits in a franchise's competitive picture. Lower tier guys might prioritize their geographic leanings but the top-top guys are likely to be driven by contract and team fit. Occasionally we see guys getting megadeals with teams we don't think will go anywhere, but Bogaerts to SD, Correa to the Mets etc. are partly about them wanting a real chance to win... and to set the market for other players.
Again, going by wRC+, if he doesn't get injured and his August is in line with the rest of his season, he's top 5 in baseball last year. If you want to go by OPS, he was #5 in the AL with August included, at an age where Ortiz hadn't quite figured it out yet.
Of course, the most astounding thing about Ortiz was his longevity and how he managed to stay so good his whole career. We have no idea what Devers will look like in five or ten years, but what he's producing right now is absolutely elite.
It looked very much like Ortiz was going down the toilet at one point though.
2007 (age 31): 35 hr, 117 rbi, 1.066 ops, 171 ops+
2008 (age 32): 23 hr, 89 rbi, .877 ops, 124 ops+
2009 (age 33): 28 hr, 99 rbi, .794 ops, 102 ops+
Looked like he was in serious decline and there was good reason to think that 2010 (age 34) would be "David Ortiz...has been". But then all of a sudden he bounced back and *seven* straight great years (ops+ of 137, 154, 173, 159, 141, 140, 164).
Amazing.
Oh, I remember all the great "they should give more of Ortiz's ABs to Jeremy Hermida" discussions we had here in April, 2010. It's incredible that he rebounded like that, it's not just that results were bad, he looked genuinely awful at the plate, couldn't catch up to fastballs whatsoever.
What does everyone else's season look like if you dump their worst month, too? Raffy's biggest problems are his long, terrible slumps and the way he hurts himself by swinging so hard. Maybe the injuries and the slumps are related, but now that he's going to be around for another 11 years, it would be good if he could figure out how to swing and miss without ripping his arms off his shoulders.
He missed 20 games last year, six in 2021, three in 2020, six in 2019. Last year's injury was to his hamstring. He had that ugly stuff in the 2021 playoffs but otherwise he's been highly durable. Are you worried that he'll strain a lat or something?
If I have time later I'll pull some quotes on the subject but there were several reports that he was soundly booed by the crowd when he was seen walking through the stands.
I'm aware of the video taken outside Fenway but I do believe it was more than that. I just did a quick Google search and there are several articles about it. I'll try and get back on later to share some so you don't have to take my word for it.
I feel the same way about this. I feel like the "so and so wants to play on the west coast" thing is one of those tropes that's been repeated so many times that it's not accepted as fact, without much evidence to back it up.
That would be way cooler than English.
The not so subtle racism that suggests a Dominican ballplayer should learn English is irking in an otherwise joyous thread.
I suspect there's some truth to it, but how much it bears on the final decision is pretty small. If someone was offering me a job at the same money these guys are being offered, I'd much rather be there then St. Louis or Kansas City (which are both pretty great under appreciated cities), but then I suspect a lot of players really just kinda want to go to their jobs and go home and not be in some hip megalopolis with crazy fans and media
I said the 2024-27 window (but I think it's more like 2025-27 myself). I suppose we have an option to retain Turner, but at his age I'm not exactly counting on him being here when we know which of the kids are established MLB players and which flame out. Hence the idea that we'll want a RHH DH in that slot during the 2024-27 window, the way we had JD Martinez for our previous window. On a VERY quick look at next year's free agents, I'll put in an early plug for Rhys Hoskins or Teoscar Hernandez. But again, that is a very quick look.
I know this is off-topic, but it's worth mentioning as it reveals a bit about Devers's mindset and maturity:
Jen McCaffrey, The Athletic:
Jen McCaffrey, The Athletic: