Red Sox Defense 2025 and Beyond

[kazuneko]

No doubt, but that’s partly because he's been generally very healthy and played many innings at 3B over the stretch we’re talking about. A bunch of productive hitters didn't play full seasons at 3B but were worse than Devers on a per-game basis.

Of course he’ll move off third eventually. Right now he’s playable, I think. His cumulative stats are “worst” in part because he’s within the band of playability at the position and hasn’t been moved off. If his bat weren’t so good, it wouldn’t be as valuable to play him there.

I bet there’s a way to game out the 2025 projections so that Devers DHs, Player X plays third, and Yoshida vanishes into thin air amounts to an incremental net positive, but I think it’s worse for the team, long run, to make that shift now.

I think he starts next year because there are no better options. That said, if they sign Bregman, his tenure at 3b should be over. There is no world where signing the reigning gold glove winner at 3b to play him out of position at 2b makes any sense- especially to accommodate Devers terrible glove at 3b.
Obviously, in that case they’d have to trade either Casas or, more likely, Yoshida. I suppose it’s also possible that they could still trade for Arenado as well, which is the other move that would necessitate moving Devers from 3rd. One interesting question is what happens when Mayer is ready to be promoted if Story is still healthy and 2b is being adequately covered by Grissom or Campbell.

 

[Yo La Tengo]

I think he starts next year because there are no better options. That said, if they sign Bregman, his tenure at 3b should be over. There is no world where signing the reigning gold glove winner at 3b to play him out of position at 2b makes any sense- especially to accommodate Devers terrible glove at 3b.
Obviously, in that case they’d have to trade either Casas or, more likely, Yoshida. I suppose it’s also possible that they could still trade for Arenado as well, which is the other move that would necessitate moving Devers from 3rd. One interesting question is what happens when Mayer is ready to be promoted if Story is still healthy and 2b is being adequately covered by Grissom or Campbell.

THAT would be a good time for the braintrust to make a decision about moving Devers, at which point they will have scores of boxscores worth of information to judge game-tested Grissom, Anthony, Campbell, second year Rafaela, overrated or consistent Abreu, Duran, and a healthy Casas, Story, Yoshida.

 

[HangingW/ScottCooper]

This stat got tweeted by some baseball analyst (and I verified it in Savant).

The Sox batting average allowed on ground balls in 2024 was very good, 6th-lowest overall.

Kind of a surprise. I would have expected the Sox outfield to show up that high, but not necessarily the infield.

View attachment 94055

Something else to consider is the composition of the pitching staff. Groundball pitchers, handedness of the staff, etc. All of that plays a part.

 

[burstnbloom]

He is over 30 and has played a total of 163 games over the last three seasons. You can't wave your hand and say he is going to be healthy all of a sudden. Labrum injuries are predictive of future injuries especially with players over 30.

I'm not an orthopedist, but I imagine the reoccurrence rate on labrum injuries are significantly impacted by throwing arm injuries and players in impact sports. Story injured his non-throwing shoulder. He'd basically have to land the same way on a dive or run into something for that injury to reoccur, no? I don't disagree with the rest of your point, but the bolded felt a little off base given the nature of his injury and how baseball players tend to get injured.

 

[Big Papi's Mango Salsa]

Stupid ?, but does that include errors? If it doesn’t and the Red Sox had say ~+20 IF errors compared to average, that would likely put them on the left side (at “.250”, by just rough calculation of 450+20/1880, if you assume those extra errors turned outs into hits, which isn’t always true, of course).

While not having read the study specifically to see it’s methodology, you are correct to question how it is factoring in those errors.

In its simplest sense an error made would not count as an “increase“ in batting average. At a very rudimentary manner, 10 ground balls given up with 1 hit, 4 errors and 5 outs would result in a .100 batting average against for what the staff gave up and not .500. So the average against ground balls would look incredible, and certainly miss some necessary context.

I again, have no idea on the methodology of the study and what factors it took into account or did not. They could have counted all errors as ”hits” for all I know. I didn’t see that mentioned when looking quickly at the linked information.

 

[OCD SS]

I'm not an orthopedist, but I imagine the reoccurrence rate on labrum injuries are significantly impacted by throwing arm injuries and players in impact sports. Story injured his non-throwing shoulder. He'd basically have to land the same way on a dive or run into something for that injury to reoccur, no? I don't disagree with the rest of your point, but the bolded felt a little off base given the nature of his injury and how baseball players tend to get injured.

I don’t think Tom was speaking specifically about Story reinjuring his labrum as much as he was making the blanket statement that if you’re going to miss that much of the season after hurting yourself diving for a ball then it probably indicates your body is breaking down and we can expect another injury from a similarly innocuous event… then the question is who can take over for an early season injury.

Depending on the timing, the easiest thing is just plug Rafaella in again and run the 2024 defense back, but hopfully with a more stable 2Bman.

Mayer didn't actually play in AAA, so I think he's due for a good chunk of time there, but he could conceivably be ready mid-season, and it's probably his position to loose long term, and he has the best actions and upside, but I don't think the Sox will rush him.

Campbell is more of a wild card. I don't know how good he really is at SS, and I don't know that if last year's work that unlocked his offense is also going to extend his defensive ability; it likely would have to improve his throwing strength to move him to the left side of the IF. That said, I think he'll have every chance to hit his way on to the team in ST so the team has a shot at a PPI pick, but he could be moving around the IF (and OF). If he's already on the 26 man roster and Story goes down early, then I can see him getting a try at SS where I'd expect him to be more of a sure hands/ limited range type (kind of like early Xander at SS).

 

[marcoscutaro]

I don’t think Tom was speaking specifically about Story reinjuring his labrum as much as he was making the blanket statement that if you’re going to miss that much of the season after hurting yourself diving for a ball then it probably indicates your body is breaking down and we can expect another injury from a similarly innocuous event… then the question is who can take over for an early season injury.

Bizarre statement. Story landed awkwardly on the shoulder and in doing so cracked the glenoid rim of his shoulder and was thought to be out for the rest of the season. It’s kind of miraculous he made it back before then actually. Very strange aspersion to cast on a player just because he fractured a small bone on an awkward fall.

Story had been placed on the IL over the weekend after landing hard on his non-throwing arm while trying to make a play in Anaheim. He was evaluated by team doctors on Monday where they found a fracture of the glenoid rim, the socket in which the arm rotates. It was determined surgery was the best course of action.

People claim they love players who play hard, except when they are unlucky and get injured going all out.

 

[burstnbloom]

I don’t think Tom was speaking specifically about Story reinjuring his labrum as much as he was making the blanket statement that if you’re going to miss that much of the season after hurting yourself diving for a ball then it probably indicates your body is breaking down and we can expect another injury from a similarly innocuous event… then the question is who can take over for an early season injury.

Depending on the timing, the easiest thing is just plug Rafaella in again and run the 2024 defense back, but hopfully with a more stable 2Bman.

Mayer didn't actually play in AAA, so I think he's due for a good chunk of time there, but he could conceivably be ready mid-season, and it's probably his position to loose long term, and he has the best actions and upside, but I don't think the Sox will rush him.

Campbell is more of a wild card. I don't know how good he really is at SS, and I don't know that if last year's work that unlocked his offense is also going to extend his defensive ability; it likely would have to improve his throwing strength to move him to the left side of the IF. That said, I think he'll have every chance to hit his way on to the team in ST so the team has a shot at a PPI pick, but he could be moving around the IF (and OF). If he's already on the 26 man roster and Story goes down early, then I can see him getting a try at SS where I'd expect him to be more of a sure hands/ limited range type (kind of like early Xander at SS).

I mean - he did specifically say that, which is what I was responding to with my post. I don't think your conclusion is reasonable either. Story has a long history of injuries and I won't tell anyone that they can't believe it could happen again, I just don't think his actual injury would necessarily repeat.

Brian Abraham said they were happy with Campbell's defense everywhere he played on the SP.com podcast earlier this offseason, so I imagine he would get a shot if Mayer doesn't have a good spring. I also think Mayer is being significantly underrated and would have a chance to be an average MLB SS this year with significant upside beyond that.

 

[OCD SS]

To clarify, I'm only interpreting TRic regarding Story, not agreeing with it. Basically once you start having a fair number of fluke injuries, you can see them as likely to continue, even if the individual events are unlikely. Call it the Chris Sale Effect. Again, I'm not agreeing with that as health is one of those things that's basically impossible to predict.

Brian Abraham said they were happy with Campbell's defense everywhere he played on the SP.com podcast earlier this offseason, so I imagine he would get a shot if Mayer doesn't have a good spring. I also think Mayer is being significantly underrated and would have a chance to be an average MLB SS this year with significant upside beyond that.

I agree, although I wouldn't expect him to say anything different; there wasn't much in the way of actual analysis beyond "we really like the player", for which tell me something we don't know. I'm sure he'd be happy to come out and tell us that he thinks David Hamilton has the arm to play SS and they think he can be above average there and really develop as a hitter...

I definitely agree that Mayer is being underrated, but I also think that's something of a health issue - the Chris Sale Effect rears it's head again (I think Casas may be getting similarly dinged). I think that Mayer will start in AAA no matter what as he's going to need the reps, so even if Story goes down early, he won't get the call. Campbell will depend on his performance (I think he gets the chance to make the big league team with an eye towards the PPI pick), but I think if things are going well then he would get the call to cover SS if Story goes down.

 

[TomRicardo]

I'm not an orthopedist, but I imagine the reoccurrence rate on labrum injuries are significantly impacted by throwing arm injuries and players in impact sports. Story injured his non-throwing shoulder. He'd basically have to land the same way on a dive or run into something for that injury to reoccur, no? I don't disagree with the rest of your point, but the bolded felt a little off base given the nature of his injury and how baseball players tend to get injured.

As right handed hitter, his left posterior labrum is under constant stress from swinging especially low or offspeed pitches. With his bad right elbow and left shoulder, pitchers can get after him low and away and low and in. It will somewhat negate his ability to pull offspeed pitches as well as any real handed advantage. He will never get the full motion back and is far more likely to have tears in the future.

I mean he is 33. Wear and tear slowly erodes everyone's skill.