Red Sox Defense 2025 and Beyond

[Yo La Tengo]

The Fielding Bible ranked the Sox as the 6th best defensive team last year. But that ranking is due in very large part to Duran and Abreu (plus, apparently, the Sox pitchers did a good job fielding the position). The Sox should improve as SS and 2B this year, with Story back and a (hopefully) competent starter at second for the full year (Valdez really hurt the rankings last year, coming in at 174th out of 184 players at the position). And, hopefully Wong can improve even modestly and be paired with a good defensive catcher. Casas improved from -4 in 2023 (over 1000 innings) to -1 (500 innings in 2024) and the new left fielder might improve that ranking as well.

[EDIT to add that Rafaela was at -2 at SS last year and +12 in CF. The Sox ranking of +3 in LF is due entirely to Duran playing 611 innings there (+6), with all other players at 0 or -1, so there is a good opportunity for the Sox to improve LF defense next year as well.]

Which leaves Devers. He's been at -9, -9, -6, and -14 over the last 4 years. That -9 last year puts Devers at 177 of 178 in the rankings for third basemen. I thought he was playing better last year before the injuries, but, that was likely just the timing of the games I followed. As a result of his poor defensive reputation, there is some energy behind the idea of moving Devers off third this year.

Do the Sox need to make additional moves to improve their defense? If so, what moves?

For the record, I think the internal improvements should help the team drastically. Sign a solid catcher and let things play out, with the plan that an prospect will take over third at some point in the future (or take over SS and push Story to third).

https://www.fieldingbible.com/drs-leaderboard/teams

 

[zenax]

The Sox should improve as SS and 2B this year, with Story back

All 227.2 innings at SS in 2024 and 314.0 the year before. His first year (2022) with the Sox he played 2B. What guarantee is there he will be a full-time SS?

 

[simplicio]

Because he's been excellent there every time he's played, he's very clearly the best SS on the roster, and neither of his injuries the last two years were predictive of further injuries.

 

[Yo La Tengo]

All 227.2 innings at SS in 2024 and 314.0 the year before. His first year (2022) with the Sox he played 2B. What guarantee is there he will be a full-time SS?

I think he will be the full time shortstop, and play above average defense, for as long as he is healthy. He has been terminally injured so I can't predict how many innings he will play. But I do think it will be more than 227 innings, so I feel comfortable with the prediction that SS defense will improve.

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

Keeping Valdez away from 2B and Hamilton away from SS will go a long way towards improving the defense. Which I don't think had anything to do with the ridiculous amount of HR's allowed by Sox pitching. I guess one could argue (I'd have a hard time being convinced) that this was on Wong.....
I still think HR's allowed is mostly fluky... somewhat controllable by pitch sequencing- who calls that? I don't think it's Wong. How well one throws those pitches, obviously... but for someone like Crawford, all his peripherals suggest that he throws high quality pitches.
Generally I'm not concerned. The OF defense is great with any variation of Rafaela, Duran, Abreu, Refsnyder and Anthony out there. I'm very confident in Story and Grissom or Campbell up the middle. The edges are a concern- but as has been pointed out, Devers defense was better with Story nearby. Casas is close to average and looks better and better.
I'm not necessarily a proponent of adding Bregman (please no Adames) and having him take the majority of snaps at 1B and mostly DH Devers, but it would be an improvement there and a general improvement in the DH over Yoshida.

 

[Big Papi's Mango Salsa]

This is a very interesting table, and thank you for posting it @Yo La Tengo. Genuinely curious (and I don't know). Are defensive runs saved a cumulative stat?

For instance, Casas was a -1 in 500 innings. In a theoretical sense, if he'd been able to play 1400 innings at 1b at the level he played the 500, would his score still be -1 or would it be -2.9 (or however the percentage actually works out)?

 

[LogansDad]

This is a very interesting table, and thank you for posting it @Yo La Tengo. Genuinely curious (and I don't know). Are defensive runs saved a cumulative stat?

For instance, Casas was a -1 in 500 innings. In a theoretical sense, if he'd been able to play 1400 innings at 1b at the level he played the 500, would his score still be -1 or would it be -2.9 (or however the percentage actually works out)?

It is cumulative, but defensive metrics are so messy, especially in single season or less than single season samples, that it is hard to really garner a ton of information from them in the short term. For instance, if he has a week of playing outstanding first base, he could essentially go from -1 to +1, so it's not quite as simple as saying "if he had played three times the innings he would have been three times worse".

Personally, I find the advanced defensive metrics much more interesting when discussing outfielders than infielders. For infielders, first step is almost everything because there just isn't time to make up for a mistake (and the good metrics, to my knowledge, DO take this into account, but it just seems so high variance to me). I think that these metrics are useful tools, but they are definitely still a work in progress (and the people developing them acknowledge that).

 

[Yo La Tengo]

This is a very interesting table, and thank you for posting it @Yo La Tengo. Genuinely curious (and I don't know). Are defensive runs saved a cumulative stat?

For instance, Casas was a -1 in 500 innings. In a theoretical sense, if he'd been able to play 1400 innings at 1b at the level he played the 500, would his score still be -1 or would it be -2.9 (or however the percentage actually works out)?

I don't know... a while back I wrote a post asking about best defensive stats and this site came highly recommended by SOSH users. It seems to pass the eye test and I find it helpful for general comparison purposes.

 

[Big Papi's Mango Salsa]

It is cumulative, but defensive metrics are so messy, especially in single season or less than single season samples, that it is hard to really garner a ton of information from them in the short term. For instance, if he has a week of playing outstanding first base, he could essentially go from -1 to +1, so it's not quite as simple as saying "if he had played three times the innings he would have been three times worse".

Personally, I find the advanced defensive metrics much more interesting when discussing outfielders than infielders. For infielders, first step is almost everything because there just isn't time to make up for a mistake (and the good metrics, to my knowledge, DO take this into account, but it just seems so high variance to me). I think that these metrics are useful tools, but they are definitely still a work in progress (and the people developing them acknowledge that).

Thanks @LogansDad. And yeah, I know you can't just triple the stats, or whatever. That is why I said theoretical, I just wanted to understand how they were calculated was all.

Defense - for me at least - is so much the eye test, but I think when something is tough to quantify a lot of times analytics will go toward "it doesn't exist" as opposed to saying "we don't know how to quantify that yet."

But I do think when you don't have an elite pitching staff (the Red Sox do not) and when you play in an extreme hitters park (the Red Sox do) you must have good defense and on the infield, the Red Sox do not. Looking at fielding independent or expected stats to say "the Red Sox pitching isn't that bad" is all well and good. But if you know that your infield defense is atrocious, it's pretty worthless to simply remove fielding when you know you have horrible fielders behind you.

Also, thanks @Yo La Tengo. I'm going to assume @LogansDad is correct since I genuinely don't / didn't know.

 

[Yo La Tengo]

But I do think when you don't have an elite pitching staff (the Red Sox do not) and when you play in an extreme hitters park (the Red Sox do) you must have good defense and on the infield, the Red Sox do not. Looking at fielding independent or expected stats to say "the Red Sox pitching isn't that bad" is all well and good. But if you know that your infield defense is atrocious, it's pretty worthless to simply remove fielding when you know you have horrible fielders behind you.

A lot rides on Story being on the field, but I don't think the Sox infield defense will be atrocious next year. Casas will hopefully be a neutral defender, Grissom/Hamilton/Campbell should be mildly + defenders, and Story is a good defender. It really is just Devers. Looking at his numbers, as has been discussed before, last year he was fine fielding the ball coming in, going back, and moving toward 3B, and really bad at moving to his left, which makes me think that specific movement can be addressed to make it at least slightly less bad and positioning may be a help as well (hence the anecdotes that he was better when Story was playing).

 

[LogansDad]

But I do think when you don't have an elite pitching staff (the Red Sox do not) and when you play in an extreme hitters park (the Red Sox do) you must have good defense and on the infield, the Red Sox do not. Looking at fielding independent or expected stats to say "the Red Sox pitching isn't that bad" is all well and good. But if you know that your infield defense is atrocious, it's pretty worthless to simply remove fielding when you know you have horrible fielders behind you.

I don't think the red Sox have an elite pitching staff, but I don't think it is horrid, either. Houck is great, Bello can be good, Crawford shows good peripherals, Pivetta was a mixed bag but overall I think he was better than a lot of alternatives (but is also gone, obviously). The top end of the bullpen is good, but the depth needs a lot of help.

I absolutely agree with you that this pitching staff was harmed by the infield defense in 2024 (and has been for multiple years). It's part of why I love Trevor Story so much, and hope he finds a way to stay healthy this season, he is such an enormous stabilizing force for the infield, at shortstop or second base. I don't know how much of an upgrade Grissom will be over Valdez (who showed improvement in 2024, in my opinion, but was still bad), but I imagine it will be better than "worse than Valdez".

Devers is what he is, which is inconsistent. The metrics HATE him, but I honestly think that 3B is probably the hardest of all the defensive positions for the advanced metrics to calculate. He also seems to have the most randomness on the team between "oh my goodness what a play by Devers" and "oh my goodness what a terrible play by Devers", if that makes any sense. And no, I don't think the team is going to sign Bregman to replace him at third base.

I think that having a great defensive first baseman can solve a lot of problems, and the Red Sox have not had that since.... Youkilis? Maybe Adrian Gonzalez? Casas is definitely not a great first baseman, and is part of the reason I kind of want the team to go after Christian Walker (who would fill so many needs for this team, but that's for another thread). I think Casas can improve, but I think there is a pretty low ceiling on just how good he can be at first base. He's more of a DH candidate than Devers, IMHO.

 

[Yo La Tengo]

Breslow's recent comments on infield defense:

“We’re very mindful,” he said. “I watched 162 games and recognize that a big part of the equation, especially for a starting rotation that primarily relied on managing hard contact and pitching in the zone, is the ability to convert balls in play into outs and we didn’t that well enough. That’s a responsibility we all share. We made some changes to the (coaching) staff.
At the same time, there are opportunities that we can take to improve the structure of the workday and really target defense. Part of the reason that we felt so excited about bringing up (first base coach Jose Flores) from Worcester to the big leagues is the role he had in coaching the infield defense over the last few years and the improvements that we’ve seen, specifically with a number of people who are going to be in the big leagues.”

 

[Yo La Tengo]

And looking at subjective measures, the Sox had the second most errors in MLB last year with 115.

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

I don't think the red Sox have an elite pitching staff, but I don't think it is horrid, either. Houck is great, Bello can be good, Crawford shows good peripherals, Pivetta was a mixed bag but overall I think he was better than a lot of alternatives (but is also gone, obviously). The top end of the bullpen is good, but the depth needs a lot of help.

I absolutely agree with you that this pitching staff was harmed by the infield defense in 2024 (and has been for multiple years). It's part of why I love Trevor Story so much, and hope he finds a way to stay healthy this season, he is such an enormous stabilizing force for the infield, at shortstop or second base. I don't know how much of an upgrade Grissom will be over Valdez (who showed improvement in 2024, in my opinion, but was still bad), but I imagine it will be better than "worse than Valdez".

Devers is what he is, which is inconsistent. The metrics HATE him, but I honestly think that 3B is probably the hardest of all the defensive positions for the advanced metrics to calculate. He also seems to have the most randomness on the team between "oh my goodness what a play by Devers" and "oh my goodness what a terrible play by Devers", if that makes any sense. And no, I don't think the team is going to sign Bregman to replace him at third base.

I think that having a great defensive first baseman can solve a lot of problems, and the Red Sox have not had that since.... Youkilis? Maybe Adrian Gonzalez? Casas is definitely not a great first baseman, and is part of the reason I kind of want the team to go after Christian Walker (who would fill so many needs for this team, but that's for another thread). I think Casas can improve, but I think there is a pretty low ceiling on just how good he can be at first base. He's more of a DH candidate than Devers, IMHO.

Devers biggest problem from my own personal eye test was a weird lack of focus when it came to some routine plays and throws. Also, it's been argued here before that his statistics show he was actually a plus defender until Story went down.
I don't share your take on Casas though. Sure, he's not "great"... but after a really shitty first half of 2023 he started to seriously improve. Personal eyetest again..... and looked at least average all of last season. I expect him to improve.

 

[Big Papi's Mango Salsa]

I don't think the red Sox have an elite pitching staff, but I don't think it is horrid, either. Houck is great, Bello can be good, Crawford shows good peripherals, Pivetta was a mixed bag but overall I think he was better than a lot of alternatives (but is also gone, obviously). The top end of the bullpen is good, but the depth needs a lot of help.

I absolutely agree with you that this pitching staff was harmed by the infield defense in 2024 (and has been for multiple years). It's part of why I love Trevor Story so much, and hope he finds a way to stay healthy this season, he is such an enormous stabilizing force for the infield, at shortstop or second base. I don't know how much of an upgrade Grissom will be over Valdez (who showed improvement in 2024, in my opinion, but was still bad), but I imagine it will be better than "worse than Valdez".

Devers is what he is, which is inconsistent. The metrics HATE him, but I honestly think that 3B is probably the hardest of all the defensive positions for the advanced metrics to calculate. He also seems to have the most randomness on the team between "oh my goodness what a play by Devers" and "oh my goodness what a terrible play by Devers", if that makes any sense. And no, I don't think the team is going to sign Bregman to replace him at third base.

I think that having a great defensive first baseman can solve a lot of problems, and the Red Sox have not had that since.... Youkilis? Maybe Adrian Gonzalez? Casas is definitely not a great first baseman, and is part of the reason I kind of want the team to go after Christian Walker (who would fill so many needs for this team, but that's for another thread). I think Casas can improve, but I think there is a pretty low ceiling on just how good he can be at first base. He's more of a DH candidate than Devers, IMHO.

For what it's worth, I'm totally on board with the idea of signing Christian Walker. There are a ton of ways for this Red Sox team to improve and contend and I'll accept almost all of them aside from "just run back what we have and hope for injury luck" because it's not good enough.

Go do something like sign Eovaldi, sign Christian Walker and go with:
Duran - CF
Story - SS
Devers - 3b
Walker - 1b/DH
Casas - DH/1b
Abreu - RF
Wong - C
Anthony - LF
Campbell / Grissom - 2b

Rafaela, Hamilton, Refsnyder, Yoshida.

Eovaldi
Houck
Bello
Crawford
Giolito
Priester / Fitts (because Eovaldi is likely only giving you 25 starts).

I'd be totally fine with that off-season. Doesn't get them into conversation for the division, realistically, but makes all 3 wild card spots a possibility. Not an A+, by any stretch, but adding two solid MLB performers on real contracts that address major concerns. I'm good with that as a B off-season. Becomes an A if they can swing a trade for a top of the rotation starter.

 

[loneredseat]

For what it's worth, I'm totally on board with the idea of signing Christian Walker. There are a ton of ways for this Red Sox team to improve and contend and I'll accept almost all of them aside from "just run back what we have and hope for injury luck" because it's not good enough.

Go do something like sign Eovaldi, sign Christian Walker and go with:
Duran - CF
Story - SS
Devers - 3b
Walker - 1b/DH
Casas - DH/1b
Abreu - RF
Wong - C
Anthony - LF
Campbell / Grissom - 2b

Rafaela, Hamilton, Refsnyder, Yoshida.

Eovaldi
Houck
Bello
Crawford
Giolito
Priester / Fitts (because Eovaldi is likely only giving you 25 starts).

I'd be totally fine with that off-season. Doesn't get them into conversation for the division, realistically, but makes all 3 wild card spots a possibility. Not an A+, by any stretch, but adding two solid MLB performers on real contracts that address major concerns. I'm good with that as a B off-season. Becomes an A if they can swing a trade for a top of the rotation starter.

I think if after all their big talk their only (major) additions are Walker, Eovaldi, and Chapman... well, a lot of people around here are going to go bonkers. Replace Eovaldi with Fried (or Burnes) and then I think I'd call it a good (B or B+?) offseason.

 

[Rich Garces Belly]

IMO the biggest liability on the field is at the catching position. Wong is valuable as a utility guy with his bat but I’d like to see the defense and framing at the catcher position upgraded.

 

[NotSoIrishO'Leary25]

IMO the biggest liability on the field is at the catching position. Wong is valuable as a utility guy with his bat but I’d like to see the defense and framing at the catcher position upgraded.

Don't know how true it is but I've seen on Stats and other Twitter user posting about a possible trade of Yoshida and Abreu for Sean Murphy and either AJ Smith-Shawver or Hurston Waldrep coming back from tbe Braves. Was talk of Hamilton possibly as well. I'd be a huge fan if Sox could get this done great defensive Catcher that has 3 yrs left amazing Framing and quick pop up speed. Great role model for Teel the bat need some tweeks after down injuries last year. Solves alot of problems with Wong catching less can fill in for days off as a super sub. Fried if we can get him would be reunited with his Braves battery mate. Having a great C will help the guys like Bello Houck develop more and he is a RH bat. If true Breslow swinging for the fences

 

[Big Papi's Mango Salsa]

I think if after all their big talk their only (major) additions are Walker, Eovaldi, and Chapman... well, a lot of people around here are going to go bonkers. Replace Eovaldi with Fried (or Burnes) and then I think I'd call it a good (B or B+?) offseason.

Oh, I'm not saying people won't go crazy. I'm just speaking for myself. I don't think they're going to land any of the top of the market free agents.

Bucket 1 - Snell (obviously), Burnes, Fried - no chance.

Bucket 2 - Adames (obviously), Alonso and Bregman - no, I don't think it'll happen. (Houston or DDski will eventually offer more for Bregman.)

Bucket 3 - Eovladi / Flaherty / trade

Bucket 4 - Hernandez / Santander / Kim / CWalker


I think one from bucket 3 and one from bucket 4 are pretty likely. I'd consider that a FAR better off-season than they've had in about half a decade and a step back toward being a top 1/4 of the league type of payroll as opposed to just top 1/2. When factoring in what I think could / should reasonably happen, and to tie back to defense, my guess is Eovaldi (a ground ball machine, not quite Fried or Framber, but top 10) and Kim (Devers moves to DH). This improves the staff, improves the defense, helps balance the line up, cuts down on the Ks and also leaves plenty of room - LF and 2b - for Anthony, Campbell and Grissom, all without signing massive long term deals - which I really don't think they're going to offer to "not Soto."


(FWIW, Soto was his own "bucket" and I had Kikuchi in bucket 3 with Eovaldi and Flaherty).

 

[kazuneko]

Devers biggest problem from my own personal eye test was a weird lack of focus when it came to some routine plays and throws. Also, it's been argued here before that his statistics show he was actually a plus defender until Story went down.

I get that you were probably trying to say that Devers was a better defender with Story in the lineup, but let’s be clear, Story “went down” on April 5, so I’m not sure that anyone can make a reasonable argument that he was “a plus defender until Story went down”- at least not for 2024. Or maybe I just need to rewatch the first week of the season..

 

[simplicio]

I get that you were probably trying to say that Devers was a better defender with Story in the lineup, but let’s be clear, Story “went down” on April 5, so I’m not sure that anyone can make a reasonable argument that he was “a plus defender until Story went down”- at least not for 2024. Or maybe I just need to rewatch the first week of the season..

They may be conflating 2023 here, when Devers played decidedly better D when Story came back at the end of the year.

 

[kazuneko]

They may be conflating 2023 here, when Devers played decidedly better D when Story came back at the end of the year.

Right. Is there any website that does monthly splits for defense?

 

[plucy]

Right. Is there any website that does monthly splits for defense?

Baseball Savant does monthly splits.
FWIW, the sum of Devers’ defense when Story played shortstop (very rough since only one was a complete month for both) was 0 OAA.

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

They may be conflating 2023 here, when Devers played decidedly better D when Story came back at the end of the year.

Yes. Thanks. Not sure how predictive that is though…. But it’s something

 

[Yo La Tengo]

Baseball Savant does monthly spits.
FWIW, the sum of Devers’ defense when Story played shortstop (very rough since only one was a complete month for both) was 0 OAA.

Thanks for sharing this info- how does that number compare to when Devers played with other SS?

 

[kazuneko]

Baseball Savant does monthly splits.
FWIW, the sum of Devers’ defense when Story played shortstop (very rough since only one was a complete month for both) was 0 OAA.

So that’s his career OAA with Story starting? Out of curiosity, where did you find that statistic?

 

[kazuneko]

Thanks for sharing this info- how does that number compare to when Devers played with other SS?

Well Devers is the worst 3rd basemen for his career by OAA, so presumably his numbers with other shortstops would be terrible.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Thanks for sharing this info- how does that number compare to when Devers played with other SS?

His OAA for the season in 2023 was -8 and the number is accumulative, so if he was 0 in September playing primarily with Story, it's kinda suggestive that Story made an impact. Still a small sample size though.

 

[plucy]

So that’s his career OAA with Story starting? Out of curiosity, where did you find that statistic?

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/outs_above_average?type=Fielder&startYear=2024&endYear=2024&split=no&team=BOS&range=9&min=10&pos=5&roles=&viz=show
Change the range to the months and years when they played together.
Aug and Sept, 2023
April and Sept, 2024

 

[Cassvt2023]

His OAA for the season in 2023 was -8 and the number is accumulative, so if he was 0 in September playing primarily with Story, it's kinda suggestive that Story made an impact. Still a small sample size though.

I don’t really trust most defensive stats. But I watch the games. Devers does indeed look better when Story is out there. He has to go to his left less. And it’s not just Story, but the consistency of having the same guy out there most days, rather than some Rafaela, some Hamilton, some Romy, some Sogard, etc…

 

[chawson]

This stat got tweeted by some baseball analyst (and I verified it in Savant).

The Sox batting average allowed on ground balls in 2024 was very good, 6th-lowest overall.

Kind of a surprise. I would have expected the Sox outfield to show up that high, but not necessarily the infield.

 

[simplicio]

Houck and Bello had the 5th and 6th highest ground ball percentage among qualified starters. I'm guessing quality of contact has a lot to do with this.

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

Houck and Bello had the 5th and 6th highest ground ball percentage among qualified starters. I'm guessing quality of contact has a lot to do with this.

This is... like an actual real stat right? Most of the defensive stats all seem very subjective and arbitrary when they break them down into individual performers. Most don't distinguish who is playing near who, positioning, quality of the balls put in play, etc...... just some random number that I'm supposed to trust and they claim to cover some sort of mysterious "zone" based on all plays, etc... but there's so much more to figuring out how good someone is at defense. Now please... I'm not saying that they're garbage at all. But the defensive team stat here is way more suggestive as it would take into consideration context way more since it's an aggregated stat, no?

 

[kazuneko]

I don’t really trust most defensive stats. But I watch the games. Devers does indeed look better when Story is out there. He has to go to his left less. And it’s not just Story, but the consistency of having the same guy out there most days, rather than some Rafaela, some Hamilton, some Romy, some Sogard, etc…

But aren’t Devers errors (which is a big part of his bad fielding) more typically throwing errors? That was one reason why some think he might be better at 1b - if I remember correctly. Anyone know if that statistic is available anywhere (ie. throwing errors)?

 

[chawson]

Quality of contact definitely in play here, plus the fact that Crawford and Pivetta give up their damage via the air.

But yes, I’d tend to think that a stat like this shows the actual cost of bad individual defensive stats.

The other thing that comes to mind is SLG/ISO on ground balls, which covers doubles down the line. The Sox are actually tops in all of baseball in that department, allowing only a .251 SLG. My first thought on seeing this is how Devers is actually pretty solid at going to his right and covering the third base line.

Seen yet another way, the Sox allowed the fewest extra-base hits on groundballs in all of MLB, with 19. The Angels were worst in MLB in this department, with 58.

 

[chawson]

But aren’t Devers errors (which is a big part of his bad fielding) more typically throwing errors? That was one reason why some think he might be better at 1b - if I remember correctly. Anyone know if that statistic is available anywhere (ie. throwing errors)?

He had 12 errors (fielding and throwing combined) over 1138 innings, high but not unusually so for a full season. Matt Chapman committed 15 errors in 1338 innings. Bregman committed 10 in 1234. Austin Riley 10 in 960.

 

[BuellMiller]

This stat got tweeted by some baseball analyst (and I verified it in Savant).

The Sox batting average allowed on ground balls in 2024 was very good, 6th-lowest overall.

Kind of a surprise. I would have expected the Sox outfield to show up that high, but not necessarily the infield.

View attachment 94055

Stupid ?, but does that include errors? If it doesn’t and the Red Sox had say ~+20 IF errors compared to average, that would likely put them on the left side (at “.250”, by just rough calculation of 450+20/1880, if you assume those extra errors turned outs into hits, which isn’t always true, of course).

 

[nvalvo]

This stat got tweeted by some baseball analyst (and I verified it in Savant).

The Sox batting average allowed on ground balls in 2024 was very good, 6th-lowest overall.

Kind of a surprise. I would have expected the Sox outfield to show up that high, but not necessarily the infield.

View attachment 94055

I've noted this in a few threads, but range wasn't really the problem. If you look at the breakdowns of the UZR subcategories on fangraphs, what it looks like to me is that the 2024 Red Sox infield's Range Runs was mostly okay (Pablo Reyes was the only real disaster rangewise and he barely played; everybody else is either modestly positive or modestly negative), but the double play runs were negative across the board (everybody except Grissom and Story, neither of whom played a ton). Also, a few players' error runs were pretty dire (Devers, Hamilton, Casas, Rafaela). I suspect that using fewer infield configurations could really, really help.

Depending on how the calculations are done, botched double plays and errors might not impact infield BABIP.

 

[nvalvo]

But aren’t Devers errors (which is a big part of his bad fielding) more typically throwing errors? That was one reason why some think he might be better at 1b - if I remember correctly. Anyone know if that statistic is available anywhere (ie. throwing errors)?

Fangraphs has it. In 2024, his 12 errors were 9 fielding errors and 3 throwing errors. For his career, it's closer to half and half (75 fielding, 66 throwing).

 

[marcoscutaro]

I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again but even a decent middle infield solves so many woes. The Mets had worse corner infielders than the Sox the past couple of years, but they got away with it because of Lindor and Iglesias covering huge range. It definitely helps that Valdez is now on the Pirates.

 

[TomRicardo]

Because he's been excellent there every time he's played, he's very clearly the best SS on the roster, and neither of his injuries the last two years were predictive of further injuries.

He is over 30 and has played a total of 163 games over the last three seasons. You can't wave your hand and say he is going to be healthy all of a sudden. Labrum injuries are predictive of future injuries especially with players over 30.

 

[kazuneko]

He had 12 errors (fielding and throwing combined) over 1138 innings, high but not unusually so for a full season. Matt Chapman committed 15 errors in 1338 innings. Bregman committed 10 in 1234. Austin Riley 10 in 960.

Devers has 141 errors and a .941 fielding percentage since entering the league in 2017. Both numbers are the worst in baseball among all players at all positions who have played at least 1100 innings (roughly one full season in the field) during that period.
Yes, he was a bit better last year, but he still wasn’t great, and considering his track record I don’t think anyone is thinking that this isn’t a potential concern going forward. What I was wondering was whether a disproportionate amount of these errors are throwing errors and, if so, if that might suggest he’d be less error prone at 1b, but as far as I can tell those statistics aren’t available.

 

[chawson]

Devers has 141 errors and a .941 fielding percentage since entering the league in 2017. Both numbers are the worst in baseball among all players at all positions who have played at least 1100 innings (roughly one full season in the field) during that period.
Yes, he was a bit better last year, but he still wasn’t great, and considering his track record I don’t think anyone is thinking that this isn’t a potential concern going forward. What I was wondering was whether a disproportionate amount of these errors are throwing errors and, if so, if that might suggest he’d be less error prone at 1b, but as far as I can tell those statistics aren’t available.

It looks like @nvalvo posted the fielding/throwing error breakdown above.

Re the “141 total errors since 2017” note — sure it’s not great, but a lot of those are clustered in his first 2 1/2 seasons in the league.

From 2022-24, he doesn’t seem like much of an outlier.



Errors can be costly situationally, but they typically result in 1 base for the hitter. In cases where there are no runners on, that doesn’t strike me as a big deal.

I’m not trying to say that Devers is actually a good fielder, but over the last three years, Devers averages roughly 3 errors per full season more than Austin Riley or Jose Ramirez, who have been gold glove finalists.

 

[loneredseat]

I’m not trying to say that Devers is actually a good fielder, but over the last three years, Devers averages roughly 3 errors per full season more than Austin Riley or Jose Ramirez, who have been gold glove finalists.

Amen.

 

[kazuneko]

It looks like @nvalvo posted the fielding/throwing error breakdown above.

Re the “141 total errors since 2017” note — sure it’s not great, but a lot of those are clustered in his first 2 1/2 seasons in the league.

By far the worst in baseball among all players at all positions is worse than just "not great".

From 2022-24, he doesn’t seem like much of an outlier.

So if you look at those statistics, even during that 2022-24 stretch he had the most errors among 3b in the majors. He also had the most overall outside of SS (who get far more chances).View attachment 94056 If that's his best stretch, that's actually pretty damning.

Errors can be costly situationally, but they typically result in 1 base for the hitter. In cases where there are no runners on, that doesn’t strike me as a big deal.
I’m not trying to say that Devers is actually a good fielder, but over the last three years, Devers averages roughly 3 errors per full season more than Austin Riley or Jose Ramirez, who have been gold glove finalists.

Umm, that's because Devers' bad fielding is not just seen in traditional metrics like errors and fielding percentage but in advanced stats like OAA. He's not only the king of errors since his career began but also the major's worst fielding 3b by OAA. So yes, errors are a problem for Devers but it's not like all he does wrong is commit too many errors.
Let's also be clear that the year that Riley was in gold glove consideration (2023) he had 8 less errors than Devers and was 8 runs better in OAA. Even then he didn't win and really shouldn't have been in the conversation (if he had won it, it would have been because of the award’s bias towards good hitters). Ramirez was a finalist in 2024 because of the dearth of good fielding 3b in the American League, his fame as a hitter and his solid +3 OAA. Devers had only three more errors than Ramirez but was the worst 3b in baseball among qualified fielders according to OAA (-6).

 

[loneredseat]

So speaking to someone who does not know about all the advanced stats-
OAA has to do with outs, right? If Riley and Devers differ by 8 OAA is that 8 outs difference or 8 runs difference?

 

[simplicio]

Outs Above Average.

It's a range-based stat.

 

[flredsoxfan]

Based on all this conversation I still believe there is a whole lot of subjectivity thrown into these stats. I know it's old fashioned but the eye test tells me there were more throwing errors than say a Chapman or a Bregman. If that's the case then 1B or DH seems to be in his future - maybe more quickly if Bailey can make all these guys throw two seamers.

 

[simplicio]

Based on all this conversation I still believe there is a whole lot of subjectivity thrown into these stats. I know it's old fashioned but the eye test tells me there were more throwing errors than say a Chapman or a Bregman. If that's the case then 1B or DH seems to be in his future - maybe more quickly if Bailey can make all these guys throw two seamers.

Your lyin' eyes were lying.

Devers: 9 fielding errors, 3 throwing errors
Chapman: 7 fielding errors, 7 throwing errors
Bregman: 3 fielding errors, 7 throwing errors

 

[chawson]

So if you look at those statistics, even during that 2022-24 stretch he had the most errors among 3b in the majors. He also had the most overall outside of SS (who get far more chances).View attachment 94056 If that's his best stretch, that's actually pretty damning.

No doubt, but that’s partly because he's been generally very healthy and played many innings at 3B over the stretch we’re talking about. A bunch of productive hitters didn't play full seasons at 3B but were worse than Devers on a per-game basis.

Of course he’ll move off third eventually. Right now he’s playable, I think. His cumulative stats are “worst” in part because he’s within the band of playability at the position and hasn’t been moved off. If his bat weren’t so good, it wouldn’t be as valuable to play him there.

I bet there’s a way to game out the 2025 projections so that Devers DHs, Player X plays third, and Yoshida vanishes into thin air amounts to an incremental net positive, but I think it’s worse for the team, long run, to make that shift now.