What is the corresponding move? You can't just add him and not drop someone else. His 611 OPS and 29.8% K rate is horrifying. I just don't get why anyone would advocate for him to be on the Red Sox. His goose is cooked.
Red Sox Deadline Discussion
- Thread starter soxhop411
- Start date
Well if you read the next sentence it's mentioning that this roster as it currently is constructed is doing that anyways. It's not 2013 anymore and you currently have Herrera who is redundant with Holt on the roster and Nava who has been awful. At this point I don't think anyone can act like certain fringe players are untouchable and can't be dropped. I wouldn't DFA Gomes as I think he does bring value against lefties.MakMan44 said:
They need a shot in the arm to mix things up, if you want to DFA Nava it's not going to be a massive loss. Even if a move for a 4th outfielder like Soriano or anyone else who becomes available doesn't work out. Can you really say that Nava or Herrera are essential parts of the Boston Red Sox in 2015 and beyond?
Not only Soriano. I'm advocating for this team to look at anyone out there. Hell Reimold hasn't done anything in years and I wouldn't have minded him being claimed. I am not advocating claiming Soriano since that would be nuts but he is better than what he has shown this year and even if he is cooked he is an upgrade over Nava and Herrera on a 25 man roster. Just don't put him in RF.Darnell said:
Bring Andres Torres up from the minors when he's ready, bring up Brentz or Hassan, etc...any type of move to get an actual outfielder on this team. Soriano is just an example of one that they should probably take a flyer on. Since it can't get any worse then it is right now.
He played left for the Cubs last year. I fail to see how he is any less of an outfielder than Gomes in left field.absintheofmalaise said:
Gomes is a better hitter against LHP than Soriano is. I agree that Gomes isn't a very good OF, but my eyes tell me he is better than Soriano.
Nava had a wRC+ of 119 in June. He's well on his way towards being a productive part of the OF again and it's very hard to argue that's he been part of the problem as of late.Tyrone Biggums said:
I can't argue that Herrera would be a loss, but he can play multiple IF positions and if the Red Sox are insistent on getting Holt's bat into the line up everyday, having a UTL IF is still semi-important.
I think you have a point, re:shot in the arm, but I don't think Soriano is anywhere close to being that guy. His numbers paint a picture of guy who is very much cooked. I certainly think most of other suggestions in your response to Darnell are better options.
Yes, no embedded Yankees. This season has been bad enough, have no interest seeing Soriano getting at-bats from a youngster we could start developing at the Major League level.Stitch01 said:
Nava/Gomes in LF, JBJ in CF and Betts in RF the rest of the way. If you want to try Brentz or WMB in LF when their healthy and deal Gomes thats fine. We still have control of Nava for 3 more seasons and he can be productive vs. RHP, so we shouldn't just give up and toss him aside.
Deal Peavy, AJP, and Drew, with 100% of their contracts paid for, and see what kind of prospects we can get.
benhogan said:
You're not getting anything for those guys except salary relief and open spots on your 40-man. Not to say that such relief isn't valuable, but the only older guys (potentially) available who are bringing back anything are Koji, Lester, and Lack. Gomes might get you a B/B- prospect if he goes to a team desperately needed a veteran hitter who mashes lefties.
I think we'll see long term guys in some of these deals. The Sox can wait, and it's better to take a flier on a high upside, long term developmental prospect than to just add AAA or AA filler. Go for guys like Angel Beltre was when the Sox dealt him to Texas with Gabbard and Murphy; then let the developmental staff take over.
Not looking for salary relief, thats why I said 100% of their contracts paid for. They are all players on the last year of their contracts, so the team that obtains them is not financially on the hook. I have no interest in saving money for the 2014 Red Sox, its a sunk cost at this point. We'll get some decent prospects by paying the freight for those proven vets, especially from some low budget teams that are in the hunt for the play-offs. Its a good way to use our big market revenues, in a down year, to open up rosters spots and get prospects.someoneanywhere said:
RDLR was pulled from his start after one inning today, and the Paw Sox recap says no apparent injury.
Probably just transitioning him to the pen for the rest of the year (cut Breslow or Mujica?), but slight chance it could be trade related.
Probably just transitioning him to the pen for the rest of the year (cut Breslow or Mujica?), but slight chance it could be trade related.
Starting for the Red Sox on Wednesday, I believe. Might be moving Peavy, though.pokey_reese said:
EDIT: Yup, that's what this thread says
Because of the doubleheader, we need another starter this week. I really like Rubby, hopefully we can deal Peavy after he pitches well vs. the Astros (if not sooner) and keep Rubby up.MakMan44 said:
FWIW, the Baseball Prospectus show on XM tonight highlighted Nava, Peavy and Gomes (in that order) as the pieces most likely to help a contending team and bring something of future value back. They were very high on Nava as a chip, and thought Peavy could really help a National League team. Potential trading partners mentioned were the Royals, Braves, Pirates, Blue Jays, Brewers...
Like I said, for what it's worth.
Like I said, for what it's worth.
It's not what you want or don't want -- it's what those guys are worth. If by decent prospect you mean someone who is a fringe on the 25-man, that's a possibility. But people need to readjust their sights if they think the Sox are have of significant value to unload. All of the valuable pieces are the young guys and young pitching who are only going anywhere in a blockbuster for a young power bat/proven young arm.benhogan said:
someoneanywhere said:
I think that you are being overly pessimistic, in the current playoff framework, the value of a marginal upgrade is so much higher, as the difference between Division Winner and Wild card is now so pronounced. So while you are correct in that we will not be receiving a polished guy in the high minors almost ready to make an immediate impact in 2015, I am certain that teams with hopes for the playoffs will certainly be willing to trade interesting young players from the low minors or even flawed but talented players in AA to secure a pitcher like Peavey or a platoon outfielder like Gomes, because the difference of one or two wins could be huge for teams battling it out for their division spot.
If we use our system as an example, I think you could realistically get guys like Sean Coyle, Luis Diaz or Simon Mercedes. So while none of those guys are players that you will be seeing in any mid season top 50 list, they are guys with decent ceilings of someday becoming first division starters, not just fringe back ups who provide value while they have options (of course any or all three of those guys may just become that - but they have potential to be much more).
I don't see where people are expecting Peavy, Drew, AJP, the older relievers, etc. to bring back quality AA or AAA prospects with zero subsidized cost. What a lot of us are saying is that if the Red Sox actively shopped those guys with a clear "Boston pays 100% of the remaining salary" caveat (which they can do because they're under the luxury tax threshold as-is) they likely can bring back a nice collection of Rookie to High-A types.someoneanywhere said:
The last thing Boston needs is more AAAA types and short of getting OF prospects there really isn't the need for AA and AAA talent. What they could do is flip these guys for what amounts to fistfuls of lottery tickets, whom they have plenty of room for in those levels (and I'd suggest that they go looking to see what would be needed to start up a Rookie ball Appalachian League team anyhow). That would greatly increase that there would be a second wave behind the AAA/AA talent we're all looking forward to over the next few years.
If they move Koji Uehara or Jon Lester they'll go looking for elite return. On the other guys it should be for guys like Brock Holt circa 2012 that they think they see something in or straight lottery tickets because that is what teams will be willing to pay.
That said, I still think Peavy and Drew for Craig, Pham, and a flier from the Cardinals is a pretty ideal swap for both sides.
Not sure exactly why, but this feels more like an August/post-non-waiver deadline trade, where it's later in the season and some team really is just looking for a LOOGY PH for a few weeks/the playoffs. Some team that's either confident they're making the playoffs or figures they'll be in a dogfight down the stretch and will need a few high-leverage ABs vs. LHP.someoneanywhere said:
I feel like the Dodgers did this with Thome in '09?
https://twitter.com/gordonedes/status/486298486439411712
https://twitter.com/gordonedes/status/486298486439411712
link to tweet
Per Gordo, the Cardinals scoured Peavy yesterday. Seems like we match up really well with them.
https://twitter.com/gordonedes/status/486298486439411712
link to tweet
Per Gordo, the Cardinals scoured Peavy yesterday. Seems like we match up really well with them.
I'm completely spitballing here but who hangs up first if the Sox say Peavy Doubront and WMB for Allen Craig ? ( I realize it would be selling low on Doubie and WMB but I'm willing to take a risk for someone who pretty recently was a very good bat. )
Maybe I'd even offer to cover the rest of Peavy's money for this year. I stick Craig in LF and go with a Mookie/ Nava/Gomes trio in RF till Vic gets back.
One year into a 30+ million dollar extension. Mozeliak doesn't sound completely opposed to the idea of being persuaded.
At some point you may have to look at the situation and say, 'This isn't working. Somebody needs a change of scenery.' If you decide this isn't working, the performance isn't there, then maybe that's how to find a place."
While Mozeliak did not name names, the most obvious candidate for a player who "isn't working" in his current place is Allen Craig. Craig has a .299 OBP this year and just a .365 slugging percentage which is well below average for a rightfielder/first baseman. The other player who has disappointed this year is Shelby Miller, who has a 4.15 ERA and an even worse 4.73 FIP through 104 innings pitched this season.
Craig would be harder to deal than Miller given the $31 million, five-year contract extension Craig signed in 2012. Still, Craig's contract could be bearable for a team betting on his turnaround, particular a team with deep pockets like the Yankees. Craig is due just 2.75 million in 2014, then 5.5 million in 2015, 9 million in 2016, and 11 million in 2017. The 2016 and 2017 numbers are the most distasteful, but it is not an untradeable contract like that of Alex Rodriguez.
http://www.examiner.com/article/cardinals-john-mozeliak-reveals-trade-thoughts-recent-interview
Maybe I'd even offer to cover the rest of Peavy's money for this year. I stick Craig in LF and go with a Mookie/ Nava/Gomes trio in RF till Vic gets back.
One year into a 30+ million dollar extension. Mozeliak doesn't sound completely opposed to the idea of being persuaded.
At some point you may have to look at the situation and say, 'This isn't working. Somebody needs a change of scenery.' If you decide this isn't working, the performance isn't there, then maybe that's how to find a place."
While Mozeliak did not name names, the most obvious candidate for a player who "isn't working" in his current place is Allen Craig. Craig has a .299 OBP this year and just a .365 slugging percentage which is well below average for a rightfielder/first baseman. The other player who has disappointed this year is Shelby Miller, who has a 4.15 ERA and an even worse 4.73 FIP through 104 innings pitched this season.
Craig would be harder to deal than Miller given the $31 million, five-year contract extension Craig signed in 2012. Still, Craig's contract could be bearable for a team betting on his turnaround, particular a team with deep pockets like the Yankees. Craig is due just 2.75 million in 2014, then 5.5 million in 2015, 9 million in 2016, and 11 million in 2017. The 2016 and 2017 numbers are the most distasteful, but it is not an untradeable contract like that of Alex Rodriguez.
http://www.examiner.com/article/cardinals-john-mozeliak-reveals-trade-thoughts-recent-interview
Craig has had a lot of success for the Cardinals. I can't imagine that these struggles will continue forever. The Sox are very weak in the outfield. I'd gamble on a comeback, though Peavy, Doubront and WMB seems like a really steep price. Since Craig has an unfavorable contract, us redundant for the Cards and has underperformed I would think the deal would probably be Craig and a prospect for Peavy.
A reluctance to sell on Middlebrooks at the nadir of his value is the most likely reason they are reluctant to deal him right now. I'd be very interested in talking with Pittsburgh given their young OF depth and Boston's playoff tested veterans available.
I'm with this line of thinking, barring a major trade, the Sox should take high risk hi reward high A or lower players and ideally OF'ers with power for two reasons. It's a combination of what we are going to get verse what we need. Say we get three of these semi lottery tickets, chances are one pays out. Then we add one big contract hitter at first base or leftfield or somehow if the Sox are fortunate another position, I still strongly believe that Xander will be a 3,4 or 5 hitter before to long (withing 2 years). The Sox offense does not need that many 25+ hr players in their line-up,. Both the Sox and Yankees at the beginning of their championship runs were in large part based on a homegrown core without an excess of power (okay that was more like the 2007 Sox team) with good pitching. Now more than at any time in recent history pitching rules the day, the game is changing quickly. We should have the pitching and we have enough homegrown positional players that with a key added player or two will make us perennial contenders before too long.Drek717 said:
If by "chances are" he means anything over 50.1% chance one pays out and by "pays out" he means having any future trade value or worthwhile ML service at all I'd say it's pretty fair. 16.7% chance per prospect of making it to AAA while still a "prospect" is all it would take. At that time they could flip the one who made it for that year's Jake Peavy/Burke Badenhop to hopefully shore up their own playoff push in a few years when the young guys are leading the charge. It would basically be paying forward on talent now during a sunk season in order to make a comparable (read: not elite) withdrawal two or three years down the road.Snodgrass'Muff said:
Peavy yes, Doubront and WMB no way. Both are at rock bottom value, WMB just got new glasses and hasn't been doing too bat despite batting with only four functioning fingers on his right hand in AAA. Doubie was a K/9 beast not too long ago and has shown flashes this year with some velocity reboun over 2013. He's also a young cost controlled lefty.jimbobim said:
The Cards simply do not have room for Craig if they want to bring up Tavares, Pischotty, or Grichuk, let alone all three. None are really CF capable (Grichuk the most so). They've got at least another two years of Holliday tying up a spot. That really only leaves one OF position for Craig (who doesn't really have RF range) and three damn good prospects. Even assuming they let Grichuk play CF and accept the defensive hit they need to move someone just to get Craig regular PT.
Meanwhile we've seen what the Cubs got for Shark and Hammel. The A's top two prospects, one a universal top 20 guy and the other a 2013 first rounder plus some filler. Supposedly the Rays already turned that down for Price. So unless the Cards want to part with Tavares, Carlos Martinez, and one or two other solid pieces (which they definitely do not) they've been priced out of the top flight pitchers with >1 year of service time remaining market.
So they're motivated buyers of mid-tier SPs and motivated sellers on Craig. I think something for basically Peavy, other 2014 only vets, and cash would be more than enough to get a deal done. Hell, I'd really like to see the Sox think outside the box here and do something like Peavy + Drew + $8M for Craig +7M divided over the next four years of his deal ($2M off his 2015, 2016, and 2017 AAVs with the $1M buyout picked up). The Cards do not spend within $50M of the luxury tax in a given year and have enough young talent to continue doing so for the foreseeable future. This financial agreement lets them parlay some of that excess luxury tax room in to money now, and as we all know money today is worth more than money tomorrow (especially when it's an extra million today to sweeten the pot).
Drek, I actually like your deal, but why would the Cardinals need Drew? They're committed to Peralta and it's yet to be seen if Drew is an upgrade to Wong (which would require Peralta to slid over 3rd and Carpenter to 2nd). I mean, I guess he's a better back up IF than Daniel Descalso but when was the last time Drew played anything but SS?
I think a Peavy-Drew package makes sense for the Cardinals if Drew was willing to play other infield positions. Perelta has been great SS but there is Carpenter and a hole in their infield. Kolten Won, Mark Ellis, and Daniel Descalso aren't the answer.
I think it is more likely however that Drew would have separate suitors. I could see the As and Mariners having some interest (though the Mariners need another LHH IF like a hole in the head). The Angels could have some interest too.
I think it is more likely however that Drew would have separate suitors. I could see the As and Mariners having some interest (though the Mariners need another LHH IF like a hole in the head). The Angels could have some interest too.
I think the A's make sense too. Allows to them shift Lowrie to 2nd and fills the gapping hole of suck it's been.
EDIT: Of course, this assume that Drew starts hitting better than he has been or it creates the same problem, only at SS.
EDIT: Of course, this assume that Drew starts hitting better than he has been or it creates the same problem, only at SS.
Wong has really struggled to stay healthy and Peralta isn't a strong SS defensively. Drew would upgrade their SS defense and let Wong work himself in at the ML level more slowly. Drew would basically be an upgrade over Mark Ellis, with zero dollars required on their part to get him.MakMan44 said:
They might prefer Herrera mind you, as he has a AAA option and could be brought up should Wong/Carpenter/Peralta get hurt. That might be more likely as I'm viewing Drew as a straight throw in here to get him out of Bogaerts' way before Marrero joins the SS competition. A fully subsidized Drew might just get you a lottery ticket or two before the deadline.
One Cards "prospect" I'd really like to see thrown in (and that's all he'd be as a 26 year old with no rule 5 protection) is Thomas Pham. Late development followed by injury just as he was figured it out had Pham exposed to the Rule 5 draft a few years ago (went unpicked) and he resigned as a minor league FA with the Cards. He's put together some strong AA and AAA seasons of late and by most accounts plays a good CF, but is blocked by Tavares, Grichuk, and Pischotty with Ramsey about to leapfrog him. I think he'd be a worthwhile bet for the next Brock Holt type who really surprises when given a shot to play at the ML level.
Maybe Peavy + Almanzar for Craig + Pham? Almanzar is a borderline prospect thanks to his age, but the Cards do not have much in the high minors at 3B and likely would be interested in a 23 year old insurance policy. I'd still expect them to prefer a more proven defender like Herrera or Drew, but you never know.
The theoretical Peavy-Drew package seems like a logical fit for the Pirates. Not sure what they could offer in return, though.
Allen Hanson wouldn't be a bad haul: http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=593700Danny_Darwin said:
Given Peavy and Drew's salaries, I think we may want to temper expectations. If the FO can unload those contracts and not receive anything in return, they'd probably be happy. We're probably talking something like George Kottaras here.
Not that I disagree with you overall point, but what's the point of moving these guys if you're not receiving anything in return? Moving them in July, just to move them seems a bit silly. In that case the Red Sox might as well hold onto them, place them on waivers in August and see if they get claimed.Ed Hillel said:
Ed Hillel said:
Peavy you should trade before July 31st. Drew you can get through waivers. You shouldn't be aiming to get nothing for Peavy you can get more at the trade deadline.
The Cardinals or Pirates will give something.
I think the core concept a lot of us are working with here is that for a half season of Peavy or Drew their salaries come down quite a bit and the Sox are already on the hook for the remainder. Both Peavy (RDLR, Webster, Ranaudo, Doubront, maybe Barnes or Owens) and Drew (Bogaerts, with WMB or Holt at 3B) are blocking young players with a future in Boston beyond 2014. So it is in the Sox interest to subsidize Peavy and Drew in order to get something in return as they aren't over the luxury tax threshold now and therefore can use the two of them to effectively "buy" talent.Ed Hillel said:
It is up to the FO as to what is offered to them. If some team offers to simply take Peavy's remaining ~$7M while another will give you a top 100 guy if instead the Sox eat all $7M that's a pretty easy decision (in my opinion) to pay and take the talent. If instead (and more likely) it's choosing between a B prospect and paying $3M or a C prospect and paying nothing that is when it gets difficult as to just how much you value middling prospects.
Which is of course why many of us would prefer to target young lottery ticket types. Rookie ball to high A guys who ideally where high school draftees or international free agents now in the 19-21 range. Teams will be more willing to part with someone at that age with a higher ceiling than a more age advanced prospect with a comparable ceiling due to the increased risk (obviously). Those kinds of players would also fit well in the Sox' farm system as the low minors have more roster spots than worthwhile talent.
Drek717 said:
With Deven Marrero's performance at AA and now AAA (.935 OPS, SSS), he needs to be in the mix as well. If he continues to hit AAA pitching well, he might be up here late in the season to get his feet wet. That, and I suspect the Sox would like to get a look at him against MLB pitching in order to gauge what they have before ST 2015 rolls around.
Battles are good and all, but I don't think they want to go into spring training with "So Xander, WMB is competing for the 3B job and Marrero is competing for the SS job... but they're kind of competing with each other. If Will has a great spring and Deven struggles, you're our shortstop. If Will struggles, and Marrero impresses us, you're our third baseman. If both have a great spring, well, we'll trade one and let you know where you fit in. In the meantime, we're just going to bounce you around a bit." as their plan.
By the end of this season, Xander should unequivocally know if he's our SS or 3B for 2015.
here are the goals for the rest of 2014:
1. figure out if X is a SS
2. figure out if Mookie is an OFer
3. figure out if WMB or Cecchini is your 3B or 1B of the future
4. figure out if Vasquez is your catcher of the future (along side Swihart eventually)
5. decide what to do with Lester (trade or sign)
6. bring up Webster, Rubby and go with 6-man rotation to limit innings (Lester, Lackey, Workman, Clay, Rubby and Webster)
7. trade PEavy, AJP, Drew, Gomes, Koji and if so, Lester
8. figure out what to do with Lackey (wil he pitch next year or need an extension)
That give them clarity on where to upgrade going into 2015.
1. figure out if X is a SS
2. figure out if Mookie is an OFer
3. figure out if WMB or Cecchini is your 3B or 1B of the future
4. figure out if Vasquez is your catcher of the future (along side Swihart eventually)
5. decide what to do with Lester (trade or sign)
6. bring up Webster, Rubby and go with 6-man rotation to limit innings (Lester, Lackey, Workman, Clay, Rubby and Webster)
7. trade PEavy, AJP, Drew, Gomes, Koji and if so, Lester
8. figure out what to do with Lackey (wil he pitch next year or need an extension)
That give them clarity on where to upgrade going into 2015.
If they call him up in September, what are 50 or 100 PAs against major league pitching going to tell them about "what they have" versus Marrero's body of work to date?Hank Scorpio said:
Well, I don't think they should make the decision based on spring training. But I do think the projections and success of Middlebrooks and Marrero (and whoever else they acquire) should be relevant to Bogaerts' position in the future.Hank Scorpio said:
How much are you willing to hurt the 2015 team to make this happen? If Middlebrooks starts 2015 as the 3B with Xander at SS, and then WMB gets hurt again while Marrero tears up AAA, do you shift Marrero to 3B even though he's the better fielder and Bogaerts has experience at third?Hank Scorpio said: