Red Sox Arbitration-Eligible Player Salaries

Red(s)HawksFan

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Cot's had them estimated at $1.5M and $3.0M respectively, and MLBTR thought $1.6M and $3.0M, so seems to be in line with expectations.
 

Tyrone Biggums

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Not really a shock. I'd try and flip Hembree for a C level prospect. Certainly has to be a random minor league RP that can duplicate his 2019 for cheaper.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Not really a shock. I'd try and flip Hembree for a C level prospect. Certainly has to be a random minor league RP that can duplicate his 2019 for cheaper.
Spend half the season on the IL? Yeah, I'm sure they could find a rando to do that. 39 innings at 3.86 ERA and a 10.4 K/9 rate? Doubt random minor league RP can reliably do that.

Unless they're going to go full Marlins on a firesale, I don't think trading Hembree and his $1.6M salary is really much of a priority...or a wise move.
 

Lose Remerswaal

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Not really a shock. I'd try and flip Hembree for a C level prospect. Certainly has to be a random minor league RP that can duplicate his 2019 for cheaper.
Is this the parody account again? ;) I know you didn't like Hembree for his political views, but as RHF says, he's been a key part of the bullpen for awhile and this is a reasonable price for that performance.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Spend half the season on the IL? Yeah, I'm sure they could find a rando to do that. 39 innings at 3.86 ERA and a 10.4 K/9 rate? Doubt random minor league RP can reliably do that.

Unless they're going to go full Marlins on a firesale, I don't think trading Hembree and his $1.6M salary is really much of a priority...or a wise move.
He doesn't make enough to be dumped, but I don't think he'd be all that hard to replace either.

Trading him for the sake of trading him wouldn't be wise.
 

Tyrone Biggums

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Is this the parody account again? ;) I know you didn't like Hembree for his political views, but as RHF says, he's been a key part of the bullpen for awhile and this is a reasonable price for that performance.
Eh its not even his views. I'm over that with him. I just think paying almost 2 million for him is excessive. Not difficult to replace at a fraction of the cost. I also hate Barnes but with this team he'd be very difficult to replace.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Eh its not even his views. I'm over that with him. I just think paying almost 2 million for him is excessive. Not difficult to replace at a fraction of the cost. I also hate Barnes but with this team he'd be very difficult to replace.
Trading Barnes (and/or Workman) would actually bring something of value back though. No one is trading anything of value for Heath Hembree.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Cot's projected JBJ at $11.5M, MLBTR thought $11M...dead on.

Cot's projected Mookie at $27.5M, MLBTR thought $27.7M...so slightly under projections, but still a record.
 

nvalvo

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Whew. That’s a lot, lot of money for a arbitration player. Crazy to think what he can get on the open market. He’s gonna need a 2018 season in 2020.
Well, an Arb3 award of $27m suggests an AAV comp of 33.75m, based on the 40%-60%-80% scheme. This suggests the comps that the Sox and his representation are talking about.

Machado's AAV is $30m, Arenado's is $32.5m and Trout's is just shy of $36m. He'll be in that mix.
 

jon abbey

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Well, an Arb3 award of $27m suggests an AAV comp of 33.75m, based on the 40%-60%-80% scheme. This suggests the comps that the Sox and his representation are talking about.

Machado's AAV is $30m, Arenado's is $32.5m and Trout's is just shy of $36m. He'll be in that mix.
There is an Athletic piece today by the Dodgers beat guy, who usually has good team sources, and who seemed to strongly imply that the Dodgers would be going after Betts hard next winter, and the expected price would be somewhere between Harper (13/330) and Trout (12/426):

"Trout has the sport’s largest contract, a 12-year, $426.5 million extension struck in 2019. He signed during his age-27 season. Betts will turn 28 in October. It would be reasonable to slot his price somewhere between Trout’s deal and Bryce Harper’s 13-year, $330 million deal with Philadelphia. Harper holds the record for the richest free-agent contract. Betts is a more reliable, more productive player than both Harper and Manny Machado (10 years, $300 million from San Diego). He will be two years older than that duo when they entered the market. His age should only cost him so much."

https://theathletic.com/1522190/2020/01/10/mccullough-the-dodgers-are-better-positioned-to-land-mookie-betts-next-winter-than-any-other-team/
 

edoug

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There is so little monetary difference, I hope neither case is heard.
 

DJnVa

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Cot's guesstimates Beni at 4.2m and Rodriguez at $9m. I suppose every dollar counts, but I don't know why you'd create an adversarial situation to save a few bucks with either over those margins, particularly ERod.
Because if the team simply says "Oh, we're close, let's give it to him" every time, then it's not going to be just a few bucks.
 

P'tucket rhymes with...

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Because if the team simply says "Oh, we're close, let's give it to him" every time, then it's not going to be just a few bucks.
It's not a matter of the team just being a spendthrift. Cot's estimates have been pretty close to the settled amounts with the other arb guys, so the fact that the players are going in below Cot's estimates would lead one to suspect that the front office is going to end up on the losing end with both. Unless they have some specific reasons for going low (and hey, the probably do), they're going to lose more money by going to arb than by finding a compromise with both.
 

Savin Hillbilly

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It's not a matter of the team just being a spendthrift. Cot's estimates have been pretty close to the settled amounts with the other arb guys, so the fact that the players are going in below Cot's estimates would lead one to suspect that the front office is going to end up on the losing end with both. Unless they have some specific reasons for going low (and hey, the probably do), they're going to lose more money by going to arb than by finding a compromise with both.
But I thought that the arb filing amounts were not necessarily identical to the last offer made in direct negotiation. I.e., just because $8.975M is what Rodriguez filed, that doesn't necessarily mean it's the last number the Sox FO heard, does it?
 

Apisith

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So we’re going to end up around $18m over $208m. Send Price somewhere so we can dip under the threshold and then sign Mookie and some pitchers next year to go for it in 2021.
 

Tony Pena's Gas Cloud

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So we’re going to end up around $18m over $208m. Send Price somewhere so we can dip under the threshold and then sign Mookie and some pitchers next year to go for it in 2021.
Or keep Price, who is better than any remaining free agent starter, and go for it in 2020. "Some pitchers". Who did you have in mind?
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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Or keep Price, who is better than any remaining free agent starter, and go for it in 2020. "Some pitchers". Who did you have in mind?
This is where I'm at... either keep the team intact (assume good health and productivity and this team is basically the '18 WS Champs) or just break it all apart and fully rebuild. They're not going to be a competitive without Price or JDM out there and instead some replacement level schtup
 

Savin Hillbilly

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The wrong side of the bridge....
Beni will get $3.8
EdRo will get $8.633
It'll be interesting to see how the Sox approach this. The Rays in recent years have been a "file and trial" team, at least as evidenced by MLBTR's arbitration tracker -- the final salary has always been one of the submitted amounts, never in between. I wonder if Bloom has brought that approach with him.
 

Sam Ray Not

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This is where I'm at... either keep the team intact (assume good health and productivity and this team is basically the '18 WS Champs) or just break it all apart and fully rebuild. They're not going to be a competitive without Price or JDM out there and instead some replacement level schtup
Hey, nothing wrong with a replacement level schtup! But yeah: keep Price and pay the damn tax.
 

P'tucket rhymes with...

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But I thought that the arb filing amounts were not necessarily identical to the last offer made in direct negotiation. I.e., just because $8.975M is what Rodriguez filed, that doesn't necessarily mean it's the last number the Sox FO heard, does it?
Maybe--I don't have any detailed understanding of the intricacies of what happens when. But even then, if ERod was asking for $10M during negotiations and then submitted $9M for arbitration, seems like it would have been a simple thing for the team to just say they're OK with that, given that they've been OK with the guesstimates for other players.
 

Plympton91

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Hey, nothing wrong with a replacement level schtup! But yeah: keep Price and pay the damn tax.
“Paying the damn tax” means that $33 million a year for Mookie next year is $45 million a year. They will be competing for his services with teams that will only be at the 20% threshold which means that they can bid $36 million for the same total cost, and maybe even some teams that won’t even owe any tax, like perhaps the Braves, so they could easily outbid either.

Writing that, I wonder if from the discussion in the other thread, the luxury tax is one thing keeping $/WAR seeming linear. Have any of those studies adjusted for the total after tax cost of free agent signings.
 

shaggydog2000

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“Paying the damn tax” means that $33 million a year for Mookie next year is $45 million a year. They will be competing for his services with teams that will only be at the 20% threshold which means that they can bid $36 million for the same total cost, and maybe even some teams that won’t even owe any tax, like perhaps the Braves, so they could easily outbid either.

Writing that, I wonder if from the discussion in the other thread, the luxury tax is one thing keeping $/WAR seeming linear. Have any of those studies adjusted for the total after tax cost of free agent signings.
The $/WAR number is also calculated from actual contracts, and we've seen that high WAR players end up getting very long contracts. The individual year salaries are suppressed by the expectation of reduced performance in the future and the risk of injury. So yeah, if MIke Trout only signed contracts year to year, maybe he could get $80 mil in a single year. Probably not, but maybe. You would still have to factor in his chance of getting injured in a given single year. We've also never seen that tried before so we don't have anything to compare it to. But instead Trout has a 12 year contract and is accepting below market rate for his WAR value this year in exchange for the security and knowledge that he is probably going to be overpaid for his WAR contribution at the end of it.
 

stepson_and_toe

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Has anyone looked at whether there is any yearly inflation numbers, so to speak, regarding arbitration exchanges and salaries?