Red sox and Devers discussing a 7 year deal?

joe dokes

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I hate to re-litigate the whole opt out debate again, but I think people who say that opt outs can be good for the team mostly mean something like "opt outs can work out in the team's favor."
Thank you. That's the right way to characterize what I said above.
 

DJnVa

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If Cotillo got this wrong, all of the replies to his tweets for the next few seasons will reference cake.
 

Jed Zeppelin

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Really hope this gets done soon not just because it would be great for the organization but also because it would be unambiguously hilarious to see the cake guys get scooped and caught carrying water.
 

Rasputin

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Just imagine if they announce extensions for Devers and Bogaerts on the same day.

Also, I want cake.
 

Saints Rest

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That's true of any deal that ends and the team has to decide whether to try to resign the player. It's not specific to opt outs. Without the option NY would've kept him at a lower salary when he was clearly worth it. That's not helpful to a team.

I'll leave this as my last comment. This topic has been discussed several times over the years and there's no reason to relitigate it. It's basic economics and the fact that it could end up working out well for the team doesn't change the analysis.
You are correct on face value. But that part we never know is what, if anything, was given in exchange for the opt-out language.
For example, Player asks for 8 years and $256M, but then is willing to accept 8/240 in exchange for an opt-out after 5.
 

chrisfont9

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In theory, sure. But isn’t this exact scenario happening right now with Bogaerts? The team and its fans don’t seem more than happy to walk away at all.
Bogaerts is an example of what the opt out is supposed to be: a hedge against a player outplaying his deal, as opposed to the usual stuff about what the market is doing. Bogie got signed as a $20m player before the 2019 season (after a 135 OPS+ year following five league-average years), and now he's played his way up to another level. Devers won't be leveling up during his deal, presumably, since he's already there, so any opt-outs for him are just market plays.
 

E5 Yaz

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The fact that Alex Speier has not been able to confirm either way, is kind of telling given past contract negotiations involving the Sox
What makes Speier so good is the little things, such as in this case not rejecting the reports from the DR out of hand
 

TapeAndPosts

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The fact that Alex Speier has not been able to confirm either way, is kind of telling given past contract negotiations involving the Sox
Could this just be as simple as, team sources want to keep quiet, but player sources are happy to talk?
 

chawson

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What makes Speier so good is the little things, such as in this case not rejecting the reports from the DR out of hand
Agreed, this is well done and the language doesn’t show up either Yancen Pujols or Cotillo.
 

ehaz

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Could this just be as simple as, team sources want to keep quiet, but player sources are happy to talk?
This is what I’m leaning towards. Yancen is clearly close with some of the Dominican players and he interviews/goes on IG live with them often.
 

Ganthem

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My hot take is that the silence either portends something good or there is nothing to see here.
 

Max Power

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I wouldn't say there's nothing to see here. The report could be accurate in that an offer was made and Devers still could have decided to turn it down.
 

BoSox Rule

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Chris Cotillo - November 27, 2003 Tweeted 11 minutes ago:

Yes, Red Sox brass did fly all the way to Arizona to see Curt Schilling but don’t believe everything you read. It was just a cordial dinner and they watched football and ate pie.
 

LesterFan

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Heyman:
Word is the Red Sox have now raised their offer to $200 million-plus, probably necessary given the Braves signed less-experienced star third baseman Austin Riley for $212 million. However, with Devers only a year away from free agency, he seeks at least 10 years for $300 million-plus.
The Red Sox are in a bind on both their homegrown stars after unaccepted offers in spring. They originally offered about $168 million over eight years to Devers and are said to have “insulted” two-time World Series winner Xander Bogaerts, offering $20 million extra and a year more, an offer so low some in Boston media doubted its veracity.
The mistake of trading Mookie Betts raises the urgency. A rival said, “The Red Sox are in a tough spot.”
https://nypost.com/2022/10/27/red-sox-rafael-devers-remain-far-apart-in-negotiations/
 

soxhop411

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I trust Heyman as much as ralph at this point.... same "reporter" who wrote this "story" that is indistinguishable from fan fiction




  1. Re-sign Aaron Judge. Without him, this was a .500 team, and a dull one. That $30.5 million a year offer seemed reasonable back in spring. But now even $40 million is light, even after falling down in the postseason. “That’s gone,” Astros exec Reggie Jackson said. We’ll say $45 million per. No reason the legit home run record holder shouldn’t be the game’s highest-paid player.
  2. Sign Justin Verlander (or Carlos Rodon if Verlander insists on remaining an Astro). The Yankees last year tried for Verlander at $25 million, which is ultimately what he’ll get in Houston once he opts out. He’d serve two purposes: recreate the one-two punch he had with ace Gerrit Cole in Houston, and hurt the Astros, a necessity now. If he won’t come, try for Rodon, who’s more dependable that Jacob deGrom, who may go south (Texas?) if he passes on the Mets. I’m figuring $43.3 million for Verlander (same as Max Scherzer), $25 million for backup plan Rodon.
  3. Sign Trea Turner or Carlos Correa. They passed on Bryce Harper, who would have been even better for New York than Philly, plus Manny Machado and Correa (that one-year deal that would have worked much better than taking the Isiah Kiner-Falefa/Josh Donaldson combo). This would allow them to trade Anthony Volpe and Oswald Peraza, the very combo that could have netted Luis Castillo at the trade deadline. Either guy should be about $35.1 million (Correa’s Twins salary).
  4. Sign Edwin Diaz. It’s great the Yankees had three All-Star closers, but ultimately their relief riches came up a man or two short. Why not sign the game’s best closer — $22 million is about right, and I’d lure new Mets fan Timmy Trumpet for another $50,000 as incentive to move crosstown. So that’d be $22,050,000, bringing the grand total to $145.15 million. Happy spending.

https://nypost.com/2022/10/24/time-for-hal-steinbrenner-to-open-yankees-coffers-for-these-fas/
 
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streeter88

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Was wondering if there is any further news. But I don't think that Heyman counts as news.

The fact that we have heard nothing more from Yancen Pujols and Hector Gomez is more interesting to me than anything Heyman said. I think (or at least am hoping) there is something going on there and the two sides are actively (and quietly) negotiating. To me, no news means they're working on a deal.

Anybody know if Eddie Romero is still in the DR?
 

Pablo's TB Lover

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Silence is bliss in this case, if nothing else gets out I take that as meaning the Sox offer is close enough that Devers and his reps are just haggling over the handful of millions they are apart, rather than them heading to the media which would more than likely happen if they felt he was lowballed to the tune of TENS of millions. But I do like this game, thanks @BoSox Rule :

Chris Cotillo - November 27, 2003 Tweeted 11 minutes ago:

Yes, Red Sox brass did fly all the way to Arizona to see Curt Schilling but don’t believe everything you read. It was just a cordial dinner and they watched football and ate pie.
Chris Cotillo - May 2, 2011 Tweeted 11 minutes ago:

SEAL Team 6 flew to Pakistan after months of training, however this visit was just to have yellow cake (not yellowcake) with Osama bin Laden in his cave. It appears they will not get around to apprehending and/or killing Mr. bin Laden on this particular visit.
 

jon abbey

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Heyman is indeed ignore-able but I do think Devers will need at least $300M to sign this winter with one year left. Juan Soto is younger but turned down 15/440 before being traded (with 2 1/3 seasons left, Devers has 1 now).

What about 11/363, $33M per? If that’s too much, I saw an interesting proposal of Gavin Lux (4 years) for Devers (1 year), would people prefer that? MLB Trade Values has that very close, 30-28.
 

glennhoffmania

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Heyman is indeed ignore-able but I do think Devers will need at least $300M to sign this winter with one year left. Juan Soto is younger but turned down 15/440 before being traded (with 2 1/3 seasons left, Devers has 1 now).

What about 11/363, $33M per? If that’s too much, I saw an interesting proposal of Gavin Lux (4 years) for Devers (1 year), would people prefer that? MLB Trade Values has that very close, 30-28.
Boston isn't Tampa. They need to extend the right guys and not try to trade them for cheaper guys.
 

soxhop411

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Heyman also literally regurgitated the exact “negotiation” from the spring

Passan was a guest on WEEI on Wednesday and likened the Devers discussions to the Betts negotiations from years ago.

"I think the best way to characterize it is like this: the Red Sox are [offering] over $200 million, and Rafael Devers wants more than $300 million," Passan said on The Greg Hill Show. "This thing is playing out in a very, very similar fashion to Mookie Betts."

Passan indicated that the Red Sox likely have some concerns about Devers' defense, suggesting that the Red Sox wouldn't be inclined to give $300 million to Devers if he projects to be a future first baseman.
https://www.cbsnews.com/boston/news/red-sox-negotiations-rafael-devers-mirroring-mookie-betts-jeff-passan/


Great scoop you got Heyman!

No wonder you work for the NYP now.
 

StuckOnYouk

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If he had a Bogaerts body type I’d consider 10/300. But what positions are we paying him for? How long do we see him sticking with 3b before going to DH? 5 years?
 

snowmanny

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If he had a Bogaerts body type I’d consider 10/300. But what positions are we paying him for? How long do we see him sticking with 3b before going to DH? 5 years?
If you aren’t going near 10/300 then you aren’t signing him and you need another plan for that money. If they are making an offer where the total dollar amount starts with a “2” they are just doing it for show.
 

mikcou

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OK, so what’s your max offer this winter? If that’s not enough for Devers to agree, then what?
Id lay out 9/295; 10/325; 11/350; 12/370 and see what interested him. I think any of the 10-12 year deals are pretty reasonable places to land.

If he had a Bogaerts body type I’d consider 10/300. But what positions are we paying him for? How long do we see him sticking with 3b before going to DH? 5 years?
5 years seems pretty conservative. He just finished his age 25 season. Even Pablo lasted to 30 as a regular 3B man. And well, Raffy isnt actually seriously overweight. Serious athletic declines prior to 30 are pretty rare even in the true fat guy territory (e.g., Pablo, Fielders, etc.). Devers isnt close to that so I think we can expect at least a few more years after 30. As a broader point, most of these concerns were really from when he was a teenager, he clearly has taken it seriously enough to not be Panda 2.0 and didnt grow through his late teens/early 20s in the way Sano did. At 25, I think we can be pretty comfortable as to what his body is.

He likely wont be able to play 3B until 35, but expecting him to play 7-8 years at third doesnt seem unreasonable.
 
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I am going with @snowmanny logic. At least 10 years for 300 million. He is only 26. One of the greatest Red Sox hitters at that age. David Ortiz didn't become a Red Sox until age 27. Love Xander, but Devers should be first priority. Devers prime years coming up. I really hope they sign Devers.
 

ElcaballitoMVP

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I know people probably don't want to lock up a bunch of money at 1B or DH if that's the eventual plan, but my thing is, the Red Sox aren't signing Devers for his defense. They're signing him for his bat.

You either think he's going to be a $30M bat and resign him or you trade him at the deadline as possibly the most impactful bat being dealt. I'm in the camp of resign him and find other positions to save money on down the line.

If the plan is to eventually move him to 1B or DH, by that time hopefully you have guys on the MLB roster making the league minimum like Mayer, Blaze, Romero, Anthony, Paulino, etc
 

glennhoffmania

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OK, so what’s your max offer this winter? If that’s not enough for Devers to agree, then what?
I honestly don't know. But the list of players that they seem to insult with offers is growing- Lester, Mookie, Xander, and now Devers. I'm not saying they should overpay on a stupid deal, but a pattern is developing.

If they're not going to make a serious offer then your idea makes sense. I wasn't necessarily disagreeing with you that that's what could happen. But it shouldn't happen.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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12/360 with an opt out after years 4/8 seems likely the kind of deal that gets it done. A ton of money and risky, but, what else do you do?
 

glennhoffmania

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Hindsight and all, but they should start doing what Atlanta does- overpay for pre-arb and arb years to lock up FA years at a reasonable rate and keep guys through their early 30s. Sure, sometimes they'll miss, but they'll miss on a $200m deal instead of a $350m deal.
 

John Marzano Olympic Hero

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I know people probably don't want to lock up a bunch of money at 1B or DH if that's the eventual plan, but my thing is, the Red Sox aren't signing Devers for his defense. They're signing him for his bat.

You either think he's going to be a $30M bat and resign him or you trade him at the deadline as possibly the most impactful bat being dealt. I'm in the camp of resign him and find other positions to save money on down the line.

If the plan is to eventually move him to 1B or DH, by that time hopefully you have guys on the MLB roster making the league minimum like Mayer, Blaze, Romero, Anthony, Paulino, etc
I think that we're on the same page here because at some point the current Red Sox front office is going to have to sign someone and it's going to be more than they want to sign them for. I'm not opening this box again, but they didn't want to do it with Mookie and that's fine, that's their prerogative. However, they're going to probably have to do it with either Xander or Bogaerts. Will their contracts look good at the end of their run? No. Of course not. None of these contracts ever look great at the end of their term (except for Manny's--aside from his clubhouse issues--dude was still raking eight years in), but that's the tradeoff, right? You played well as a kid getting the bare minimum and because of that we're paying you the money in the future when you may not be worth it. The idea is that this pattern keeps occurring over and over where you have young guys coming up, hitting and pitching well, but you don't have to pay a lot until they get to their arbitration years. By that point Devers (or whomever) will be just about done with his big contract.

I mean, this is professional sports. You're not going to get the best possible value on every single deal. And if you keep trying to, then you're going to lose stars.
 

Jimbodandy

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I think that we're on the same page here because at some point the current Red Sox front office is going to have to sign someone and it's going to be more than they want to sign them for. I'm not opening this box again, but they didn't want to do it with Mookie and that's fine, that's their prerogative. However, they're going to probably have to do it with either Xander or Bogaerts. Will their contracts look good at the end of their run? No. Of course not. None of these contracts ever look great at the end of their term (except for Manny's--aside from his clubhouse issues--dude was still raking eight years in), but that's the tradeoff, right? You played well as a kid getting the bare minimum and because of that we're paying you the money in the future when you may not be worth it. The idea is that this pattern keeps occurring over and over where you have young guys coming up, hitting and pitching well, but you don't have to pay a lot until they get to their arbitration years. By that point Devers (or whomever) will be just about done with his big contract.

I mean, this is professional sports. You're not going to get the best possible value on every single deal. And if you keep trying to, then you're going to lose stars.
Hear hear.

And guys like this are guys worth having long term, Raffy and Xander. Overpay a little.
 

Fishercat

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Hindsight and all, but they should start doing what Atlanta does- overpay for pre-arb and arb years to lock up FA years at a reasonable rate and keep guys through their early 30s. Sure, sometimes they'll miss, but they'll miss on a $200m deal instead of a $350m deal.
All depends on the discount I'd think. Like, the Ozzie Albies and Ronald Acuna Jr deals are so good for Atlanta that he could be 50% of the player they thought they were getting and that's still a good deal for them - seems like the same with Michael Harris II. Someone like Spencer Strider is a much smaller trade off - basically paying a bit more during his arbitration years for the option year at the end with the downside inherent in pitching prospects. Smart strategy but Atlanta is also doing this with rookies putting up 4 and 5 WAR rookie years - they'd need to wait for Devers' second full season if they want to negotiate on that or rely on their scouting impressions after his meh 2018. In retrospect the Sox would sure love to have Devers on a 10/200m deal or Betts on a 12/250 or whatever combo after that 2018 season for sure, but they could have just as easily extended Benintendi instead which would be...aight, but certainly not as good. Plus, it really does depend on if they player is willing to do it - I suspect it's very agent based as well as player's personal preference based.

It'll be interesting to see how the Sox handle it if Brayan Bello or Triston Casas has a huge breakout next year for sure thought with the Julio, Wander, and Atlanta deal models all out there.
 

glennhoffmania

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All depends on the discount I'd think. Like, the Ozzie Albies and Ronald Acuna Jr deals are so good for Atlanta that he could be 50% of the player they thought they were getting and that's still a good deal for them - seems like the same with Michael Harris II. Someone like Spencer Strider is a much smaller trade off - basically paying a bit more during his arbitration years for the option year at the end with the downside inherent in pitching prospects. Smart strategy but Atlanta is also doing this with rookies putting up 4 and 5 WAR rookie years - they'd need to wait for Devers' second full season if they want to negotiate on that or rely on their scouting impressions after his meh 2018. In retrospect the Sox would sure love to have Devers on a 10/200m deal or Betts on a 12/250 or whatever combo after that 2018 season for sure, but they could have just as easily extended Benintendi instead which would be...aight, but certainly not as good. Plus, it really does depend on if they player is willing to do it - I suspect it's very agent based as well as player's personal preference based.

It'll be interesting to see how the Sox handle it if Brayan Bello or Triston Casas has a huge breakout next year for sure thought with the Julio, Wander, and Atlanta deal models all out there.
You're right, and obviously a huge part of it would be the ability to evaluate the young players well. But I'd rather give a 25 year old 10/200, assuming there's good reason to, than wait until the player is 29 and have to give him 10/300 even factoring in the less expensive arb years. How much more likely is it that, say, Bogaerts at 10/300 today will end more poorly than when Acuna signed his deal? If they could've locked up Mookie, Bogaerts and Devers through their early 30s the team would be in a pretty great spot right now.

Of course, like you said, the player has to be willing to do it so it's not always going to work. And I'd shy away from pitchers. But when you have position players like those three you should do whatever it takes to lock them up. Otherwise you'll end up trading them for Verdugo or Lux.
 

StuckOnYouk

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I’d prefer to overpay per year and try to shorten the deal as much as possible so you avoid those final years which are a potential slog.

Instead of 10/300 what about 8/280. You’re paying an extra 5 mil per to avoid the two extra mid-30s years.
 

Ganthem

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I think that we're on the same page here because at some point the current Red Sox front office is going to have to sign someone and it's going to be more than they want to sign them for. I'm not opening this box again, but they didn't want to do it with Mookie and that's fine, that's their prerogative. However, they're going to probably have to do it with either Xander or Bogaerts. Will their contracts look good at the end of their run? No. Of course not. None of these contracts ever look great at the end of their term (except for Manny's--aside from his clubhouse issues--dude was still raking eight years in), but that's the tradeoff, right? You played well as a kid getting the bare minimum and because of that we're paying you the money in the future when you may not be worth it. The idea is that this pattern keeps occurring over and over where you have young guys coming up, hitting and pitching well, but you don't have to pay a lot until they get to their arbitration years. By that point Devers (or whomever) will be just about done with his big contract.

I mean, this is professional sports. You're not going to get the best possible value on every single deal. And if you keep trying to, then you're going to lose stars.
Trevor Story. I am sure if Bloom could get him for half that he would be thrilled. Just because the fan base thinks they can do better then Bloom doesn't mean a particular signing or lack of signing makes sense.
 

mikcou

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I’d prefer to overpay per year and try to shorten the deal as much as possible so you avoid those final years which are a potential slog.

Instead of 10/300 what about 8/280. You’re paying an extra 5 mil per to avoid the two extra mid-30s years.
This doesnt really seem economic. Are you really saying that years 9 and 10 arent worth a total of $20M? Assuming they give him the deal this offseason that would be his age 34 and 35 seasons. He could easily be worth that as a DH. We arent talking late 30 years here.