Yep, agree completely assuming this gets done. Having that life changing money in the wind while you consider arbitration is also exciting but not awesome
I suspect that during the actual negotiations Duran was closer to 5M and the Sox were below the 3.5. Theyll probably figure it out now.
"The team does not lose draft picks for going over the first threshold." My understanding is that it is a bit more complicated then this, since the team would lose/shift draft picks related to losing or signing a player who as received a Qualifying Offer. I started a thread on this topic a while ago in hopes of nailing down the details- take a look if you're interested and please improve the info if I missed anything. And I am in full support of the Sox paying up to the second tax threshold.
Duran has publicly acknowledge mental health issues. These are real things. I am afraid your patience does not enter the formula as to whether this might affect his performanc.
Please go back and re read the exchange. You’ve misunderstood what I said.
At a minimum they would lose 60 or so draft slots and the related draft pool money if they went into the tax this season from losing Pivetta, potentially more depending on what they do next offseason. You can argue about how valuable all that is, but it's not nothing
I've participated in some mock MLB Arbitration stuff* (Mark Feinsand was my judge once!) and you're right to be suspicious of how Merloni said this. It is technically true that the formal numbers submitted by each side to the arb board are "blind." But both sides are basing their submission largely off of past awards-- precedent is big with the arb judges, apparently -- and so it's pretty much known what the range is to all bidders.
"Mental Health" is a large area. We have no idea if the arbitration process would be an issue for him, as opposed to some things he has talked about. As for my patience, "give him what he asks for because otherwise he might suck" is bad business, whether its mental health, physical health, or Operation Shutdown
Something about this post bothered me when I first read it, but I only recently realized why.
Very interesting. Makes me think the team thinks his break out was real and they want to cap his 2026 potential raise.
I’m assuming “+ escalators” means if he wins MVP the option year goes up from $8M.
Smart move for the Sox and not so terrible for Duran.
So they don’t have to go thru it again next year? And this way, if he performs extraordinarily, he gets compensated for it quickly
And they can certainly still negotiate a long term deal at any point as well.
Ha! Yeah the Section 10 guys kind of lost their minds reacting to some assumption that the Sox were out tojust screw over Duran for no reason.
I don't see a longer extension in the cards. He's due to hit free agency entering his age 32 season. I can't see the Sox looking to pay him past age 33-34 and his chances of cashing in on the market are a lot better as a 32 year old-to-be than a 35 or 36 year old-to-be.
Despite being a Duran optimist and major proponent of early extensions, I've gotta disagree with you on this one. Duran is about the only major piece that I don't really want to see the Sox extend given that they have him until he's 31 already. I guess if the deal is quite team friendly I wouldn't mind an extension that goes through age 33 or so, ideally with team options int he last year or two. But aside from that, with his skillset there's a very good chance he's in serious decline before he hits FA.
Just hoping, hoping, that there will be mea culpa from even one member of the YOU SHOW THEM, JARREN crowd who were sure this was a massive diss
You may want to read some of the comments above in regards to a long term deal. As a late relatively late bloomer with a skill set based a lot around speed, a long term deal for a guy already in his 30's is probably bad business. Especially when you have Anthony close, followed by possibly the Password and Bleis in next few years.
As has been discussed, this is where your argument falters. Duran is no longer "young" in MLB terms. He won't be eligible for free agency until he is 32, which is the point where "long term" deals no longer are a sure thing. If he has another season this year like he did in 2024, then maybe a 2-3 year contract makes sense; but there's just non reason to do it until then, if at all.
Do you think he doesn’t trust them even though he just signed a two year deal that most likely DOES get him that $4 million plus the chance to cash in nicely next year?
The Red Sox have a history of doing this to their better talent. Don't get hung up on the term "long term deal" All teams will look at age and decide what the term should be. My point was more that we haggle over $250K now, which is nothing in the scheme of things, and players feel under valued and are reluctant to come back to that team. Even if you don't care if Duran is resigned, it is more the historical practice that is inherent which is not good. We already see that better players are not attracted to the Red Sox in it's current culture. It is because of the kind of thing that they did with Duran here.
Yeah, we already have him for his age 28, 29, 30, and 31 seasons - and then he's a free agent. He's a guy you evaluate in 2028-2029, and then maybe extend him three more years if he fits with where the team is at the time. Or maybe you trade him after his age 30 season.
You did see in the title of the thread that they agreed to deals with the other three eligible players, right? And that Duran can easily get the $4 million he asked for, didn’t you?
I am not sure if he trusts them or not. Red Sox were under final control through arbitration. He doesn't have the security of a 2 year deal, he has a one year deal with the club option for the next year. I am saying this type of treatment over $250K may impact his next contract decision. He was obviously underpaid for the 2024 season, the Sox should have given him the $4M he requested. That would have gone a long want in him feeling valued by the team.
Please provide evidence that Duran expressed that he didn't feel valued by the team
This is pure speculation and not based on any actual evidence from Duran or any current/past Sox players.
Or that he's been mistreated in any way. Filing for arbitration is not evidence of an impasse. It's a pre-determined deadline at which time both sides had to file something. For all we know, the negotiations up to that point had Duran asking for a number significantly higher than $4M. $4M was the best figure that he and his agents thought the arbiter would give him, not the peak of what he was asking for.
