Red Sox acquire Ian Kinsler

chawson

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 1, 2006
4,662
As we learned with Adrian Gonzalez, the trouble with getting excited about these park overlays is that it assumes the guy will get the same kinds of pitches at Fenway that he does at other parks. I.e., it assumes that pitchers are stupid.
Excellent post.
 

Van Everyman

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 30, 2009
26,993
Newton
As we learned with Adrian Gonzalez, the trouble with getting excited about these park overlays is that it assumes the guy will get the same kinds of pitches at Fenway that he does at other parks. I.e., it assumes that pitchers are stupid.
Did Gonzalez underperform or get pitched to differently in Fenway? I seem to recall Ortiz crediting him with learning to hit the other way.

I also wouldn’t say that park overlays are unreliable (not that you said that outright) just not entirely predictive. Sometimes players are pitched to differently. Other times players get overly Monster happy and screw up their swing. But even given that I wouldn’t expect Kinsler’s spray chart to differ substantially regardless.
 

moretsyndrome

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 24, 2006
2,180
Pawtucket
He's only flying from Tampa to Boston, so I would think he'd have plenty of time. But I highly doubt he'll start today.
Just heard on the radio (98.5, I think) that he’s expected to be at the park. Lineup TBD, of course, but I agree it’s unlikely that he starts. 2nd base hasn’t been great, but this isn’t a Mirabelli situation.
 

Rasputin

Will outlive SeanBerry
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Oct 4, 2001
29,423
Not here
Just heard on the radio (98.5, I think) that he’s expected to be at the park. Lineup TBD, of course, but I agree it’s unlikely that he starts. 2nd base hasn’t been great, but this isn’t a Mirabelli situation.
And now I want chicken parm.

I see no reason not to start Kinsler. He's not a kid getting called up for the first time. He's not--or at least shouldn't be--questionable to arrive by game time. Show up, play, win, and it's on to neck-stomping time.
 

TFisNEXT

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Jul 21, 2005
12,529
As long as Kinsler got into Boston at a reasonable hour, I'd think he's probably playing. If he's just landing now, I'd think they give him a night to get rid of the jet lag. Anaheim is starting a series in Tampa Bay tonight, so not sure if Kinsler was already there last night or if they were still in California where they played a series this past weekend.
 

Savin Hillbilly

loves the secret sauce
SoSH Member
Jul 10, 2007
18,783
The wrong side of the bridge....
Did Gonzalez underperform or get pitched to differently in Fenway? I seem to recall Ortiz crediting him with learning to hit the other way.
I didn't mean that he didn't hit well at Fenway; he certainly did. But the speculation that winter, based on overlays, was that his oppo HR power would go off the charts at Fenway. And it didn't (his oppo HR production at home in 2011 was actually just slightly below his three-year average at Petco in 2008-10). He still managed to hit a lot of wall doubles, but he didn't clear the fence notably often. I don't have any way of proving that this was due to being pitched differently, but it stands to reason that pitchers are going to be a little more careful about location on the outer half when pitching to that guy at Fenway then they would be at Petco.
 

Sprowl

mikey lowell of the sandbox
Dope
SoSH Member
Jun 27, 2006
34,452
Haiku
I didn't mean that he didn't hit well at Fenway; he certainly did. But the speculation that winter, based on overlays, was that his oppo HR power would go off the charts at Fenway. And it didn't (his oppo HR production at home in 2011 was actually just slightly below his three-year average at Petco in 2008-10). He still managed to hit a lot of wall doubles, but he didn't clear the fence notably often. I don't have any way of proving that this was due to being pitched differently, but it stands to reason that pitchers are going to be a little more careful about location on the outer half when pitching to that guy at Fenway then they would be at Petco.
It is certainly true that just about every pitcher Gonzalez faced in Fenway in 2011 tried to bust him inside, whereas at Petco in prior years pitchers were more willing to give him outside pitches. I think it is also true that from the Home Run Contest onward that season, Gonzalez was hurting and power-starved, which translated into a lot of wallballs and very few home runs.
 

Cesar Crespo

79
SoSH Member
Dec 22, 2002
21,588
It is certainly true that just about every pitcher Gonzalez faced in Fenway in 2011 tried to bust him inside, whereas at Petco in prior years pitchers were more willing to give him outside pitches. I think it is also true that from the Home Run Contest onward that season, Gonzalez was hurting and power-starved, which translated into a lot of wallballs and very few home runs.
He also had shoulder surgery in 2010 and was never the same afterwards in regards to power. Funny thing is, his initial scouting reports said he'd never hit for much power to begin with.
 

Philip Jeff Frye

Member
SoSH Member
Oct 23, 2001
10,232
So how do we feel about Kinsler and the price we paid to get him versus the Dozier and Schoop deals? Or Asdrubul Cabrera for that matter?
 

Rough Carrigan

reasons within Reason
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Did Gonzalez underperform or get pitched to differently in Fenway? I seem to recall Ortiz crediting him with learning to hit the other way.

I also wouldn’t say that park overlays are unreliable (not that you said that outright) just not entirely predictive. Sometimes players are pitched to differently. Other times players get overly Monster happy and screw up their swing. But even given that I wouldn’t expect Kinsler’s spray chart to differ substantially regardless.
I suspect his shoulder got a little worse each year and he simply couldn't homer to the opposite field the way it was.
 

David Kaiser

Member
SoSH Member
Feb 13, 2017
30
If Kinsler stays healthy his acquisition will help the Red Sox significantly.

Kinsler this year is a slightly above average player overall, thanks in part to a superb season he's having in the field (DRA shows him saving 15 runs so far this year--this is the best year he's had in a while, so it's probably partly luck, but it's still way above average.) But the reason the acquisition is a very good one is that he will replace Eduardo Nunes, who is having a dreadful season at bat and in the field, and has cost the Red Sox three wins, relative to an average player, already this year. Brock Holt is doing about as badly.
The Red Sox lineup this year falls into three categories. Betts, Martinez, Benintendi and Moreland are all performing at a star or superstar level. Bogaerts, Devers, the catchers, and Bradley are roughly average players this year (Bogaerts's defense has improved a little but it's still a negative.) Nunez and parttimer Holt have been awful. The easiest way to improve your team is to replace a very bad player with an average one, and that's what the team just did.
Overall, by the way, the pitching remains the strongest part of the team, although it's being hurt some overall by poor defense.
David Kaiser
 

mfried

Member
SoSH Member
Nov 23, 2005
1,680
If Kinsler stays healthy his acquisition will help the Red Sox significantly.

Kinsler this year is a slightly above average player overall, thanks in part to a superb season he's having in the field (DRA shows him saving 15 runs so far this year--this is the best year he's had in a while, so it's probably partly luck, but it's still way above average.) But the reason the acquisition is a very good one is that he will replace Eduardo Nunes, who is having a dreadful season at bat and in the field, and has cost the Red Sox three wins, relative to an average player, already this year. Brock Holt is doing about as badly.
The Red Sox lineup this year falls into three categories. Betts, Martinez, Benintendi and Moreland are all performing at a star or superstar level. Bogaerts, Devers, the catchers, and Bradley are roughly average players this year (Bogaerts's defense has improved a little but it's still a negative.) Nunez and parttimer Holt have been awful. The easiest way to improve your team is to replace a very bad player with an average one, and that's what the team just did.
Overall, by the way, the pitching remains the strongest part of the team, although it's being hurt some overall by poor defense.
David Kaiser
If you’ve been watching the last few games: Nunez is starting to hit. Looks like he did in 2017. Mark my words.
 

Byrdbrain

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 18, 2005
8,588
They said on the radio a little while ago that Kinsler would be a hitter in a simulated game that ERod will be throwing tomorrow and if things go well he could be activated.
 

DJnVa

Dorito Dawg
SoSH Member
Dec 16, 2010
53,852
Who goes down to make room for Kinsler? Pete Abe suggested Devers which I think would be stupid.
They are riding or dying with Devers. I don't see that happening at all. This is exactly when you can afford to play him--with a 10 game lead in mid-August.
 

soxhop411

news aggravator
SoSH Member
Dec 4, 2009
46,278
Who goes down to make room for Kinsler? Pete Abe suggested Devers which I think would be stupid.
its stupid to predict this as the Hanley move at the start of the season shown us...

It would not shock me if it was Drew or even Devers
 

grimshaw

Member
SoSH Member
May 16, 2007
4,220
Portland
Velazquez or a DL seems the most logical. It's not the end of the world if Hector goes down for two weeks before rosters expand. He could build his innings back up as a starter and maybe let them skip some guys starts down the stretch.

Though I can't imagine he'll be too thrilled.
 

Harry Hooper

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Jan 4, 2002
34,402
Cora said in the WEEI pregame that Kinsler will be activated on Friday.
 

joe dokes

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 18, 2005
30,247
Velazquez or a DL seems the most logical. It's not the end of the world if Hector goes down for two weeks before rosters expand. He could build his innings back up as a starter and maybe let them skip some guys starts down the stretch.

Though I can't imagine he'll be too thrilled.
What about Pomeranz? Substantively, he's a DFA candidate.

But if you want to look at it in terms of keeping all options open, he could probably go to the DL with Sale-like "shoulder barking" (or elbow) or fatigue and stay there past 9/1.
 

grimshaw

Member
SoSH Member
May 16, 2007
4,220
Portland
What about Pomeranz? Substantively, he's a DFA candidate.

But if you want to look at it in terms of keeping all options open, he could probably go to the DL with Sale-like "shoulder barking" (or elbow) or fatigue and stay there past 9/1.
I'm not against that at all but they'd be DFA'ng the 8th option out of the pen in order to keep the 7th bullpen option up. Velazquez is obviously better but he's not going to see a lot of high leverage innings. If it were August 1st that would make more sense, but there is only 2 weeks to go.
 

geoduck no quahog

not particularly consistent
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Nov 8, 2002
13,024
Seattle, WA
With Kinsler back, we really think Devers is more of an asset at 3B than Nunez? Do we keep 3 backup infielders: Holt, Nunez, Pearce...(and in a pinch Swihart)?

I guess the team wants Devers on the post-season roster. I hope as a pinch hitter.
 

SidInOC

New Member
Jul 16, 2005
9
Velazquez or a DL seems the most logical. It's not the end of the world if Hector goes down for two weeks before rosters expand. He could build his innings back up as a starter and maybe let them skip some guys starts down the stretch.



I believe Tyler Thornburg has an option left. He might actually benefit from working more often that the low leverage opportunities now available to him.
 

Al Zarilla

Member
SoSH Member
Dec 8, 2005
58,909
San Andreas Fault
Seems like it would be silly to take up the roster slot any sooner than they intend to actually use him. So my money would be on "yes".
I think Cora said Friday and Saturday. Off Sunday. Implied full-bore for Cleveland (or at least 1st 3).
Looking forward to “Bootsie” manning 2B. Thanks guys. Actually, Bootsie contains the word boot, not a good word for a fielder. Ian.
 

trekfan55

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Oct 29, 2004
11,588
Panama
It may be too late at this stage because the mil season is winding down but Devers needs reps at 3rd base.

I don't think he will be the next Brooks Robinson but under different circumstances (ie if Pedroia was available to start the season) maybe Devers spends significant time in the minors learning more about 3rd base and patience at the plate.
 

DennyDoyle'sBoil

Found no thrill on Blueberry Hill
SoSH Member
Sep 9, 2008
42,297
AZ
With Kinsler back, we really think Devers is more of an asset at 3B than Nunez? Do we keep 3 backup infielders: Holt, Nunez, Pearce...(and in a pinch Swihart)?

I guess the team wants Devers on the post-season roster. I hope as a pinch hitter.
DD said when they acquired Kinsler it meant 12 pitchers. Maybe, though, that was before Brasier turned trustworthy.

Basically we've got three second basemen. Two who are versatile. It's an unusual situation with no perfect answer, I guess.
 

joe dokes

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 18, 2005
30,247
It may be too late at this stage because the mil season is winding down but Devers needs reps at 3rd base.

I don't think he will be the next Brooks Robinson but under different circumstances (ie if Pedroia was available to start the season) maybe Devers spends significant time in the minors learning more about 3rd base and patience at the plate.
Maybe in the field. But despite everything he needs to learn, hes at 92 OPS+.
 

Savin Hillbilly

loves the secret sauce
SoSH Member
Jul 10, 2007
18,783
The wrong side of the bridge....
It may be too late at this stage because the mil season is winding down but Devers needs reps at 3rd base.

I don't think he will be the next Brooks Robinson but under different circumstances (ie if Pedroia was available to start the season) maybe Devers spends significant time in the minors learning more about 3rd base and patience at the plate.
What's the alternative, though? Nunez has been a significantly worse hitter, and while reasonably competent at third, he's not exactly a Gold Glover. The Sox are threatening the all-time MLB win record with Devers having made 80% of the 3B starts, so evidently his play is survivable. Unless you think he's going to get worse over the next two months, I don't see the downside of letting him continue to learn on the job.
 

DennyDoyle'sBoil

Found no thrill on Blueberry Hill
SoSH Member
Sep 9, 2008
42,297
AZ
I can't imagine there's any chance that anyone other than Devers is the starting 3B in the playoffs.

My biggest concern for the Red Sox right now is bullpen fatigue. They haven't really had an innings eater all year. Other than for a brief time with Wright, it's one inning at a time. Couple that with a very conservative approach for the starting pitchers and we're in a situation where Kimbrel is at 50 innings, Barnes is at 52, Hembree is at 49, and Kelly is at 50. This is a little bit less than ideal.

Bringing Kinsler off the DL likely means either Velazquez goes down or Pom gets DFA'd or DL'd and we go with a 12-man pitching staff. The composition of the bullpen right now, especially without Velazquez if he goes down, is such that it really cannot recover easily from another Porcello 2 inning outing or a 14 inning game.

For the next two weeks I would much prefer a shorter bench and a longer bullpen. Kinsler coming back seems to make that impossible. If Holt or Nunez had options, that would be an elegant solution but they don't. That's my case for sending Devers down for 2 weeks. I really don't think it's going to happen and others on this board scoff about the idea. But among other things, his biggest problem right now seems to be that he has the yips on throws across the diamond. It's the same distance in AAA and even if looking at slightly inferior pitching for 10 to 12 games has an effect he would have all of September to get it back. We'd get a couple more looks at Pom out the bullpen facing some left handed hitters, Brasier gets to keep doing what he's doing, and we have Vazquez if we need more than an inning. Nobody has to go on a DL stint and Devers comes straight back up if Kinsler reaggravates or someone else takes a knock in the next couple weeks.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 23, 2009
20,678
Maine
I can't imagine there's any chance that anyone other than Devers is the starting 3B in the playoffs.

My biggest concern for the Red Sox right now is bullpen fatigue. They haven't really had an innings eater all year. Other than for a brief time with Wright, it's one inning at a time. Couple that with a very conservative approach for the starting pitchers and we're in a situation where Kimbrel is at 50 innings, Barnes is at 52, Hembree is at 49, and Kelly is at 50. This is a little bit less than ideal.
Thing is, an "innings eater" reliever hasn't really been much of a thing in years. Who was the last Red Sox reliever that fit the role you're looking for, for an entire season?

Best stat I can find to quantify the "long reliever" is Outs Recorded per Game in Relief. The leading qualified reliever in the majors in that category is Matt Andriese at 5.7. So an average of just under 2 innings per appearance. Andriese's total is probably a result of Tampa's bullpen games and "opener" strategy than as a pure long reliever. The next highest total is 5.3 by Jesse Chavez and Brian Flynn.

For what it's worth, Hector Velazquez is 11th on this list (5th in the AL) at 4.4 outs per game in relief. Brian Johnson is at 4.2, but doesn't have enough relief innings to qualify.

Help is coming in two weeks when rosters expand. That's when they can get guys like Kimbrel, Hembree, Barnes and Kelly some rest if needed. They can bring back Workman who was effective and only got shipped out due to having options.
 

DennyDoyle'sBoil

Found no thrill on Blueberry Hill
SoSH Member
Sep 9, 2008
42,297
AZ
I'm talking about guys like (just to stay in division because it's what I know) Miguel Castro or Austin Pruitt. Guys who will give you an out or an inning but who also can take 3.1 if you need them to because of extras. Maybe on average they don't throw 2 innings per appearance but they can when you need them to and they don't need 5 days before doing so.

I was not precise when I said the Sox haven't had that guy all year. They have -- in Velazquez. Though there were times when they couldn't really use him in that way because they needed him fairly fresh for the second man up when injuries required Johnson to start and when Cora didn't want him throwing too many pitches.

There has been a real need on this team for that kind of stuff all year and Velazquez has stepped in really well. Look at that two week period where Wright played that role. He pitched almost as much as a starter would have in the same two week period and that's 16 separate one-inning appearances that we saved from Kelly, Hembree, Barnes. Just in two weeks.

Anyway, that's why I'm kind of bummed about the prospect of losing Velazquez for the next couple of weeks. Watching Barnes have to trot out there in Baltimore three days in a row in fairly high leverage situations was really no fun. Without Velazquez they are going to be working without a net for the next couple of weeks. All for the sake of having some redundancy on the bench. It is what it is and I'm a worrier obviously. They'll get through it.