There's is near unanimity in Espinosa's outstanding prospect status. If every highly regarded prospect ranking system was systematically under weighting the importance of closeness to the majors, we would all know about it.
Red Sox acquire Drew Pomeranz for Anderson Espinoza
- Thread starter johnnywayback
- Start date
I thought you were referring to the lower ranked pitchers, not AB and YM.
I like the trade, and I hope he has success in the AL East, which has some of the biggest boppers in baseball. I like him starting his first game for the Sox against the Giants, an opponent he's familiar with. I'm not a huge prospect guy, but I think getting an all-star straight up for a kid that right now is a (mostly) unscratched lottery ticket is a nice move. And more is probably coming. Hope DD doesn't give up AB or YM to do it.
Yes. Pretty much for sure. It would be glaringly obvious from the billions of hours nerds have collectively spent revisiting old prospect rankings. It's not like pitch framing where there's some new form of measurement that didn't exist before.
And if your argument is that all prospect ranking systems are flawed and therefore it makes sense to trade the young guys as they're all overrated, you probably shouldn't bury that point.
i mean, at least dumbrowski didnt give up AB or YM but i cant imagine why he gave up our best pitching prospect for a guy who was worthless 3 months ago and has had a career year. Im not so sure all those walks are going to translate well from NL petco park.to the al east. Reeks of desperation and desperate teams get hosed in trades. DD will run the sox right into the ground as long as he has the job and you can bank that.
Makes me sick to think that we are selling off our blue chips and still barely have a postseasonable pitching staff.
Makes me sick to think that we are selling off our blue chips and still barely have a postseasonable pitching staff.
No, it was an honest question. I don't know what has been done looking at prospect age and "years out"...certainly an interesting thing to think about. Time for bed.
Pretty sure I haven't referred to any single other prospect than AE, YM and AB in this thread. And all the other lower ranked pitchers are just as raw as AE if not more so. At no point did I try to say someone like Owens is better because he's closer to the majors. I don't know why you would think that.
Every ranking values things differently. Closeness to the majors can also be read as probability of not flaming out. This is a factor that has dropped in weight over the years as the publications have generally shifted more to tools and ceiling, since the probability of any prospect has such variance. Any review of AE you read is careful to check their glow with the stipulation that he is so young and far away. His stuff is nasty, which gets him the hype. But the chance he flames out is very real and more likely than not.
This is great news. Guy is under control for 2 more years, can help us now, and only cost an 18 yo pitching prospect. If I had a dime for every pitching prospect who was highly ranked and busted I would have a boat load of dimes. They are like lottery tickets, you can hope but can't count on them. Not to say the price was not high, but you got to pay if you want to play.
Drew of course has his own risks, as does any pitcher, but they needed to do something and I am glad DD got it done.
Drew of course has his own risks, as does any pitcher, but they needed to do something and I am glad DD got it done.
That pair of A's would have cost probably the top four prospects in the system if not more. There are very few pitchers available and prices are high. It's not even remotely realistic, without touching on the injury history of Hill and the performance this year of Gray making it unreliable to help.
yea i agree but greys performance and hills health would only bring the value down...i thought AE and some other throw ins might get it done. especially closer to the deadline. I know the market is thin but DP is buying high and selling low IMO.
If you go back to last offseason, its been consistently reported that the Grey/Teheran level pitchers cost Benintendi/Moncada plus significantly more.
I'm not even really convinced that either of those pitchers are better than Pomeranz. This deal might not be great, but for multiple year of an above average pitcher, it only gets worse right now.
Hard to believe BB would get more by dealing the two as a combo rather than making two separate deals with 2 other clubs.
Thank you for making this point because 7 pages into the thread, no one yet had mentioned that Pomeranz has been trending up fro several years now. While he is clearly having a career year this season, it didn't exactly come out of nowhere.
Given his upward trend, his age, and his former elite prospect status, it is reasonable to expect that the Sox just picked up a cheap and solid mid or upper rotation starter for not only the rest of this season but for the next 2-3 years, too.
What made you think that prices would go down closer to the deadline in a seller's market?
I hear you, but a) the trade market is hard to get a handle on, and we learn a little about the relative value of different kinds of assets with each transaction, and b) I wonder what Quintana's career looks like if he's dealt at 22 to Colorado instead of becoming a minor league FA after losing a year of development to a PED suspension like Quintana.
Quintana's been more consistent since promotion, obviously, but by that same token, he's certainly never thrown a half-season as good as Pomeranz just did.
Pomeranz has basically been good to great except when pitching for the Rockies. Each season as a Rocky (?), he gave up 10+ H/9, and, well, that's a hard way to win. He's suppressed hits impressively in Oakland and SD. He was a much more heralded prospect than Quintana, mostly because he had been an NCAA standout and #5 pick, and he made great progress through the Indians' system.
I don't think people are acknowledging that Pomeranz is basically having Steven Wright's season, but without the Knuckleballer's portion of unearned runs. I was skeptical about Pomeranz when I started the Pitching Targets thread, because it was mid-May, and his sub-2 ERA didn't exactly pair well with his 4+ BB/9 rate and low BABIP. Well, the ERA's come up a touch, but the walk rate has come down a lot. He looks much less like a BABIP fluke a few months out. Of course, if we're dealing a prospect like Espinoza, we want a sure thing back, and he isn't that.
The latter - which I admit is a bit shortsighted since the un-realized potential (minus the results) was there.
We're less than a year into the Dombrowski era, but he's far from incompetent. The man has an established track record of success, much of which stems from trading over-valued prospects for established players. None of this should be a surprise to anyone. But there's more - he has a good sense of the market and typically uses that to make early moves that bring ancillary benefits. This appears to be another - grab one of the few available top end pitchers before the price rises even higher. Consider too that by moving quickly and early last winter, he was able to grab the one top free agent pitcher that would NOT cost the Red Sox their #1 draft pick. Which (probably) turned into Jason Groome, who in effect replaces Espinoza. Dombrowski knows what he's doing, and has the respect of his peers, which translates into the ability to make good trades at the right time.
If you want to see questionable strategy, spend some time in the Bruin's Forum.
Plenty of people were fine as long as it didn't include YM or AB. Or both the other big four.
Yeah, seems backwards. I am amazed SD did this deal early. Funny, to his credit E5 Yaz mentioned in the All Star game thread Pomeranz might get traded before the break ended. I thought that was crazy. And here we are. There are definitely going to be some teams left without a chair when the music stops.
McKinney in 2011 researched the top 100 prospects from 1990 to 2003. Pitchers ranked 1-20 on BA prospects list during their cost controlled years averaged 1.5 WAR or more 40% of the time, and over 2.5 WAR or more about 20% of the time. About 10% end up with a WAR over 3.5.
Considering Pomeranz has a WAR of 2.5 at the ASB, he represents much better than even odds to put up WAR over 2 in his remining cost controlled years. He is certainly much more of a sure thing, but of course, he only has 2.5 years of cost control left.
It seems to me that this is a good trade for both teams. The RS trade potential for much more of a sure thing in the next 2.5 years in a position of desperate need. While the Padres give up the present for future promise and the chance that Espinosa will be in the 40% that delivers at least 1.5 WAR per year.
I think it is a trade that makes sense for both teams considering their needs.
Considering Pomeranz has a WAR of 2.5 at the ASB, he represents much better than even odds to put up WAR over 2 in his remining cost controlled years. He is certainly much more of a sure thing, but of course, he only has 2.5 years of cost control left.
It seems to me that this is a good trade for both teams. The RS trade potential for much more of a sure thing in the next 2.5 years in a position of desperate need. While the Padres give up the present for future promise and the chance that Espinosa will be in the 40% that delivers at least 1.5 WAR per year.
I think it is a trade that makes sense for both teams considering their needs.
im not convinced of his success compared to replacement.... yea he won it with the marlins after signing a bunch of free agents, and he drafted rondell white with the expos but does he really command trust and respect as a GM with a career losing record despite his win now philosophy? yea maybe i have been harsh about this trade in this thin market but im not a fan of mortgaging the future when you are still a huge longshot to get it done.
So one title and three last place finishes by BC is worth more in your estimation than one title, another WS appearance, building multiple playoff appearances, first place finishes and a fantastic trading track record going back almost thirty years (part of which led to a second title for Fla)?
BC left with a nice farm system in place but if you want that on his side of the ledger you need to credit DD with building the Expos team that got robbed of the playoffs by the strike. He did a tad more there than draft Rondell White.
And capital letters and punctuation are kind of a 'thing'. Try using them from time to time.
You're right, your opinion is clearly one to be valued by evidence of your knowledge of the game, as well as your commitment to quality and the effort displayed in your posts. Don't do any kind of research or move that left pinkie to find the shift button or even the right one for a comma. Just keep those uninformed and baseless opinions coming. It totally enhances them when we have to read them three times to understand what you're saying.
[emoji106]
This is precisely the point. And the closer it gets to Aug 1, the higher the price will be on those chairs that remain unclaimed
Two things:
1. DD unlocked the "trade for an all star" achievement.
2. Clearly this guy will exceed expectations as happens with all pitchers when they join the current Red Sox and conversely guys the Sox pass on do not go on to be successful elsewhere.
1. DD unlocked the "trade for an all star" achievement.
2. Clearly this guy will exceed expectations as happens with all pitchers when they join the current Red Sox and conversely guys the Sox pass on do not go on to be successful elsewhere.
These clips haven't gotten enough attention. Anyone who doesn't take them at face value is stretching cynicism too far.
"A couple of pitchers available to substantially upgrade the rotation": That's 2 or 3 that clubs were dangling, with most holding on to them as their prices increase towards the end of July. I'd like to guess who the others 1 or 2 were (Teheran and apparently another that would be a rental). Or...Dombrowski could have just said, "Fuck it - we'll go with Rodriguez and O'Sullivan against the Jays and Orioles". Oh wait, which of those 2 teams would have picked up Pomeranz?
"...(Espinoza-tier prospects) for rentals..." Who are the impact rentals? Hill? Who else? Regardless, the rental would have apparently cost the same (or who knows, maybe more).
I guess we'll find out by the deadline which impact starters are traded, whether they are rentals and what they cost in trade.
Simply can't discount the prospect of Pomeranz improving a competitor's rotation through 2018. Can't assume a competitor would have gotten him for much less. Can't discount the fact that Dombrowski swept in and grabbed this guy before anyone else could tickle the Padres with their own studs.
The Red Sox are a much better team today than they were yesterday while no one else in the AL East has improved. They also apparently signed their draft target. All in all - a pretty, pretty, pretty good day.
Here's a couple of interesting, albeit somewhat surface level, observations:
Pomeranz ERA by team played for:
COL: 5.20
OAK: 3.08
SD: 2.47
Pomeranz ERA by stadium:
Coors: 4.35
Petco: 4.50
All Others: 3.27
Espinoza is tough to swallow, but with Pomeranz' improving trajectory, 2.5 yrs of control, and genuine attribution for a recent performance improvement (addition of the cutter), this is a win/win.
Pomeranz ERA by team played for:
COL: 5.20
OAK: 3.08
SD: 2.47
Pomeranz ERA by stadium:
Coors: 4.35
Petco: 4.50
All Others: 3.27
Espinoza is tough to swallow, but with Pomeranz' improving trajectory, 2.5 yrs of control, and genuine attribution for a recent performance improvement (addition of the cutter), this is a win/win.
Following up on "available versus need", here's a list taken from MLB.com:
LOOKING FOR A STARTER
Toronto
Baltimore
Kansas City
Detroit
Houston
Texas
Miami
Mets
LA
POSSIBLY DEALT
Moore
Odorizzi
Santana
Hill
Teheran
Hellickson
Hudson
LOOKING FOR A STARTER
Toronto
Baltimore
Kansas City
Detroit
Houston
Texas
Miami
Mets
LA
POSSIBLY DEALT
Moore
Odorizzi
Santana
Hill
Teheran
Hellickson
Hudson
No you won't. Standards are higher than that on the main board. Start using proper punctuation and grammar or expect to be banned.
you are responding to a post that contains punctuation and proper grammar. if not choosing to capitalize letters is a banable offense then i prob do not want to be here anyways.
Two things really piss off the mods and others around here. Posting without reading the thread and posting that you haven't read the thread, but will later after you read the thread.
Newsflash, no one is sitting around on the edge of their seat waiting for you to post your opinion. All you have accomplished with this post is to waste everyone's time. Do not ever do this again. This is your only warning.
If you can't take the time to write properly, then we don't want you here either.
I pored over the whole thread this morning, and want to option it as a screenplay.
Put me down as coming around on this. Studied Pomeranz's numbers some more, and his last three years are all pretty impressive in terms of K/IP, WHIP and FIP. He's pitched well in the AL previously, which ticks a box. To me the biggest concern is health (hasn't racked up big workloads to date), and hopefully the Sox have done a little better due diligence here than they did with Carson Smith.
On balance, there are probably three SPs available now who might represent a substantial upgrade for the 2016 Red Sox: Teheran, Pomeranz, and Gray. I'll guess (though I do not know), that Pomeranz has the lowest prospect cost of the three. I don't think this eliminates the possibility of adding one of the more incremental availabilities (Hill, Santana, Hellickson) with chips ranging up to the Chavis/Owens/Dubon/Joe Kelly tier when they're auctioned off at the deadline.
Put me down as coming around on this. Studied Pomeranz's numbers some more, and his last three years are all pretty impressive in terms of K/IP, WHIP and FIP. He's pitched well in the AL previously, which ticks a box. To me the biggest concern is health (hasn't racked up big workloads to date), and hopefully the Sox have done a little better due diligence here than they did with Carson Smith.
On balance, there are probably three SPs available now who might represent a substantial upgrade for the 2016 Red Sox: Teheran, Pomeranz, and Gray. I'll guess (though I do not know), that Pomeranz has the lowest prospect cost of the three. I don't think this eliminates the possibility of adding one of the more incremental availabilities (Hill, Santana, Hellickson) with chips ranging up to the Chavis/Owens/Dubon/Joe Kelly tier when they're auctioned off at the deadline.
It is nice that DD pulls the trigger early and buys himself 2-3 extra starts versus waiting until the deadline. Given who would have been starting those games it could well be the difference in winning the division or having to play a one game playoff.
This thread has brought out the worst - never in human history has hyperbolic expression been so pronounced.
The trade aside, it's not a good look that Dombrowski planned to go into the season giving rotation spots to Joe Kelly, Clay Buchholz, and Eduardo Rodriguez. The best guy on that list this year has been Clay Buccholz. Giving up a top prospect for the best available pitcher might be the right move right now, but a great GM(or whatever his title is) should do a better job going in to the season when prices are lower. All the talent Dombrowski has brought in has either been from giant free agent signings or trading away massive prospect packages. Neither of those seem hard to do and it remains to be seen if the guys he did pay huge prices for are worth it.
Back to Pomeranz for a moment.
What worries me is that he's been a very good pitcher for exactly two months. People seem to be crediting this to the development of a cutter. But how confident can we be that the cutter will stay this good? Surely part of his success came from the fact that it was newly developed and hence unexpected. But today there is two months of tape and hitters may now know what to look for. How often does a good two-month stretch like this turn into something longer lasting?
What worries me is that he's been a very good pitcher for exactly two months. People seem to be crediting this to the development of a cutter. But how confident can we be that the cutter will stay this good? Surely part of his success came from the fact that it was newly developed and hence unexpected. But today there is two months of tape and hitters may now know what to look for. How often does a good two-month stretch like this turn into something longer lasting?
So going into the season with a veteran coming off an injury shortened season in which he had an ERA of 3.26, a 23 year old who finished his rookie year with a 3.85 ERA in 120 innings, and a young veteran who pitched to a 3.77 ERA in the second half as the back half of a rotation fronted by a former Cy Young winner was a mistake?
I can see arguments for maybe entrusting Joe Kelly with a rotation spot given his inconsistencies, but they also had Wright, Owens, Elias, and Johnson in the chute as well. Seems to me implying that Dombrowski committed some sort of malpractice last winter with how he assembled the rotation is a bit hyperbolic and 100% hindsight. You can't predict injuries (ERod, Kelly and Johnson) or complete collapses (Buchholz). If Dombrowski could, I'd imagine this team would look different and be about 20 games up in the division by now.
Actually, as I and others have pointed out, the results were there as soon as he got out of Coors. He's been a good pitcher for two and a half years now, not just a half year. He's even better this year, but given his career arc to date there's no reason to see that as fluky; he's just approaching 400 career IP, which I think you'll find is a pretty typical point for pitchers to find their peak level--since we've been making Lester comps, it was at almost exactly this stage in terms of experience (though a couple of years younger) that Lester hit his ceiling in 2009.
Can you point me to the planet on which giving a rotation spot to Eduardo Rodriguez was a bad idea? I'm thinking the Hubble telescope couldn't find it.
That is beyond asinine. He was projected to be our #2 starter this year.
Last I checked, EdRod had a 111 ERA+ as a 22 y/o in 2015. Joe Kelly went 8-1 with a 3.77 ERA while reducing his BB/9 rate in the 2nd half of 2015. Those are exactly the types of pitchers you give rotation spots to in the subsequent season.
As for Buchholz, well, I don't think anyone in MLB has him figured out.
It seems to me that Dombrowski was able to make this deal well before the trade deadline because Preller and his team highly valued Espinoza. Since it's a seller's market, that's the most reasonable explanation for why the Padres didn't hold out for more. They got their man.
I think the Sox got their man too. IMO Pomeranz looks better on paper than Geoduck's list of options. We'll see how it works in reality as it's anybody's guess how Drew will adjust to Fenway/Boston/pennant race.