Red Sox 2021 Season Predictions

How Many Wins?


  • Total voters
    304
  • Poll closed .

Rovin Romine

Johnny Rico
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Jul 14, 2005
12,812
Miami (oh, Miami!)
It's time. How many games will this team win? (or at what percentage, should we lose some of the season.)

The poll above is to get a feel of how the Crowd in it's Wisdom, leans. But to qualify for the no-prize, before April 1, you must list the exact number of games you predict in a post below.

If games are unplayed, the pro-rated winning percentage of your choice will be used.

A final winner will be determined by greatest number of correct answers to the following questions:

-Team leader in Wins?
-Team leader in Saves?
-Team leader for Batting Average (qualifying)?
-Team leader in HR?
-Team leader in Steals?
-Team leader in HBP?
-Alex Cora discipline handed down by MLB? (Yes/No.)
-Player who makes the Opening Day Roster, who subsequently spends the greatest number of days on the DL?
-Pitcher not on the Opening Day Roster who makes the greatest subsequent contribution (WAR)?
-Non-Pitcher not on the Opening Day Roster who makes the greatest subsequent contribution (WAR)?
-Player to throw the first punch of the year (no pushes - a true swing)?
-Player with the greatest number of suspension days?
-Stupidest Facial Hair at All-Star Break?
 

Ale Xander

Lacks black ink
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Oct 31, 2013
36,499
Thanks for this thread, very cheery, and April is around the corner

81-81. They play the MFY, MFR, and MFBJ way too much.

W-Erod
SV-Barnes
BA-JDM
HR-Devers
Thievery-Enrique
HBP-Verdugo
Cora-No
DL-Richards
WARP-Sale
WARNP-Chavis
Punch-none
Suspension-none
Facial hair-Schreiber
 

CarolinaBeerGuy

Don't know him from Adam
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Mar 14, 2006
6,136
Kernersville, NC
86 and 76.


Team leader in Wins? EdRo
-Team leader in Saves? Barnes
-Team leader for Batting Average (qualifying)? Xander
-Team leader in HR? Dalbec
-Team leader in Steals? Duran
-Team leader in HBP? Vazquez
-Alex Cora discipline handed down by MLB? (Yes/No.) No
-Player who makes the Opening Day Roster, who subsequently spends the greatest number of days on the DL? Richards
-Pitcher not on the Opening Day Roster who makes the greatest subsequent contribution (WAR)? Houck
-Non-Pitcher not on the Opening Day Roster who makes the greatest subsequent contribution (WAR)? Duran
-Player to throw the first punch of the year (no pushes - a true swing)? None
-Player with the greatest number of suspension days? None
-Stupidest Facial Hair at All-Star Break? Verdugo
 
Last edited:

Jack Rabbit Slim

Member
SoSH Member
May 19, 2010
1,111
85 wins

W - Edro
S - Barnes
BA - Bogaerts
HR - Devers
Steals - Duran
HBP - Martinez
Discipline - No
DL - Eovaldi
WAR (P) - Brasier
WAR (NP) - Duran
Punch - None
Suspension - Pivetta
Facial Hair - Verdugo
 

TonyPenaNeverJuiced

Member
SoSH Member
Jun 7, 2015
235
It's time. How many games will this team win? (or at what percentage, should we lose some of the season.)

The poll above is to get a feel of how the Crowd in it's Wisdom, leans. But to qualify for the no-prize, before April 1, you must list the exact number of games you predict in a post below.

If games are unplayed, the pro-rated winning percentage of your choice will be used.

A final winner will be determined by greatest number of correct answers to the following questions:

-Team leader in Wins?
-Team leader in Saves?
-Team leader for Batting Average (qualifying)?
-Team leader in HR?
-Team leader in Steals?
-Team leader in HBP?
-Alex Cora discipline handed down by MLB? (Yes/No.)
-Player who makes the Opening Day Roster, who subsequently spends the greatest number of days on the DL?
-Pitcher not on the Opening Day Roster who makes the greatest subsequent contribution (WAR)?
-Non-Pitcher not on the Opening Day Roster who makes the greatest subsequent contribution (WAR)?
-Player to throw the first punch of the year (no pushes - a true swing)?
-Player with the greatest number of suspension days?
-Stupidest Facial Hair at All-Star Break?
Club goes 84-78, misses the playoffs, is a lot of fun to watch.

Wins: E-Rod
Saves: Barnes
BA: Vedugo
HR: JDM
Steals: Hernandez
HBP: Verdugo
Cora: No
DL-days: Renfroe runs into the monster (please don't actually happen)
Pitcher WAR: Sale
Punch: Dalbec pulls a Mo Vaughn
Suspension: Dalbec for the aforementioned Vaughning
Facial Hair: we're overdue for a Vazquez mustache, I bet Hernandez puts him up to it
 

Lose Remerswaal

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I've been saying 83-86, so I clicked two boxes

-Team leader in Wins? - E-Rod
-Team leader in Saves? - Matt Barnes
-Team leader for Batting Average (qualifying)? - Xander
-Team leader in HR? - JDM
-Team leader in Steals? - Xander
-Team leader in HBP? - Devers
-Alex Cora discipline handed down by MLB? (Yes/No.) - No
-Player who makes the Opening Day Roster, who subsequently spends the greatest number of days on the DL? Whitlock
-Pitcher not on the Opening Day Roster who makes the greatest subsequent contribution (WAR)? Sale (I hope!)
-Non-Pitcher not on the Opening Day Roster who makes the greatest subsequent contribution (WAR)? Wong
-Player to throw the first punch of the year (no pushes - a true swing)? Chavis
-Player with the greatest number of suspension days? Eovoldi
-Stupidest Facial Hair at All-Star Break? Verdugo was the guy last year
 

RIrooter09

Alvin
SoSH Member
Jul 31, 2008
5,539
86 wins
Wins-ERod
Saves-Barnes
BA-Verdugo
HR-Devers
Steals-Bogaerts
HBP-Dalbec
Cora-No
DL-Richards
Pitcher WAR-ERod
Position player WAR-Downs
Punch-None
Suspension-Whitlock
Facial hair-Richards
 
Last edited:

chawson

Member
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Aug 1, 2006
2,099
90 wins, we take the Wild Card game and lose the ALDS

Wins? E-Rod
Saves? Sawamura
Batting Average (qualifying) - Bogaerts
HR? - Dalbec
Steals - Renfroe?
HBP - Kiké Hernandez
Cora discipline - No
DL days - Gonzalez
Pitcher not on the Opening Day Roster who makes the greatest subsequent contribution (WAR)? Schreiber (or Sonny Gray?)
Non-Pitcher not on the Opening Day Roster who makes the greatest subsequent contribution (WAR)? Danny Santana
Punch - none
Suspension days - Verdugo
-Stupidest Facial Hair at All-Star Break? Richards

Other predictions:
Franchy hits >25 bombs
Chavis, Duran, Houck and Barnes are traded during the season
Dalbec has a .850 OPS and >30% K rate
Andriese declines but Whitlock has a breakout year and earns a spot in the 2022 rotation
 

Tuff Ghost

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Jul 15, 2005
435
Record: 87-75

-Team leader in Wins? Garrett Richards, 15 Wins
-Team leader in Saves? Matt Barnes, 35 Saves
-Team leader for Batting Average (qualifying)? Xander Bogaerts, .305
-Team leader in HR? Bobby Dalbec, 45 HR(!) (Bonus: and breaks strikeout record)
-Team leader in Steals? Franchy Cordero, 14 SB
-Team leader in HBP? Bobby Dalbec, 12 HBP
-Alex Cora discipline handed down by MLB? (Yes/No.) No
-Player who makes the Opening Day Roster, who subsequently spends the greatest number of days on the DL? Hirokazu Sawamura
-Pitcher not on the Opening Day Roster who makes the greatest subsequent contribution (WAR)? Tanner Houck
-Non-Pitcher not on the Opening Day Roster who makes the greatest subsequent contribution (WAR)? Franchy Cordero (I'm assuming Cordero starts year on IL)
-Player to throw the first punch of the year (no pushes - a true swing)? Michael Chavis
-Player with the greatest number of suspension days? Ryan Brasier
-Stupidest Facial Hair at All-Star Break? Garrett Richards (also best facial hair at All-Star Break)
 

TFisNEXT

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Jul 21, 2005
11,024
83-79 record with many agonizing losses that leave us a little bit bitter on missing the playoffs. The team makes a late playoff charge with Sale returning in August/September, but it's not quite enough.

But I also agree this will be a fun team to watch. I expect a very good year from the offense.

Wins: Edro
Saves: Barnes
BA: Xander edges out Verdugo
HR: Devers
Steals: Hernandez
HBP: Devers
Cora: No
DL-days: Garrett Richards
Pitcher WAR: Edro
Punch: Verdugo
Suspension: Verdugo
Facial Hair:Verdugo
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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Mar 11, 2007
2,934
89 wins and competing for a WC spot right up and into the final week.

-Team leader in Wins? Pivetta... yes. That's right. Pivetta. 17.
-Team leader in Saves? Barnes.
-Team leader for Batting Average (qualifying)? Xander .320
-Team leader in HR? Dalbec. 38.
-Team leader in Steals? Cordero.
-Team leader in HBP? Dalbec.
-Alex Cora discipline handed down by MLB? (Yes/No.) No.
-Player who makes the Opening Day Roster, who subsequently spends the greatest number of days on the DL? Eovaldi.
-Pitcher not on the Opening Day Roster who makes the greatest subsequent contribution (WAR)? Sale.
-Non-Pitcher not on the Opening Day Roster who makes the greatest subsequent contribution (WAR)? Duran.
-Player to throw the first punch of the year (no pushes - a true swing)? Verdugo.
-Player with the greatest number of suspension days? Verdugo.
-Stupidest Facial Hair at All-Star Break? Verdugo.... he'll end up with some monkey tail bullshit. Beards are the new mullets.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Jan 23, 2009
13,891
Maine
89 wins

-Team leader in Wins? Eovaldi
-Team leader in Saves? Ottovino
-Team leader for Batting Average (qualifying)? Verdugo
-Team leader in HR? Devers
-Team leader in Steals? Bogaerts
-Team leader in HBP? Vazquez
-Alex Cora discipline handed down by MLB? No
-Player who makes the Opening Day Roster, who subsequently spends the greatest number of days on the DL? Martinez
-Pitcher not on the Opening Day Roster who makes the greatest subsequent contribution (WAR)? Houck
-Non-Pitcher not on the Opening Day Roster who makes the greatest subsequent contribution (WAR)? Chavis
-Player to throw the first punch of the year (no pushes - a true swing)? None
-Player with the greatest number of suspension days? Gonzalez (PEDs)
-Stupidest Facial Hair at All-Star Break? Richards
 

IpswichSox

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Jul 14, 2005
2,599
Suburbs of Washington, DC
Those predicting an upper-80s and 90-win team, so you think we're a mid-90s team if we had Chris Sale for the full season? (Or I'm reading too much into the natural pre-season optimism?)

I would be pleased with anything approaching mid-80s and enjoyable games.
 

BillMuellerFanClub

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Aug 1, 2006
1,152
88-74

W - Pivetta
S - Ottavino
BA - Verdugo
HR - Dalbec
Steals - Hernandez
HBP - Renfroe
-Alex Cora discipline handed down by MLB? (Yes/No.) No
-Player who makes the Opening Day Roster, who subsequently spends the greatest number of days on the DL? Richards
-Pitcher not on the Opening Day Roster who makes the greatest subsequent contribution (WAR)? Tanner Houck
-Non-Pitcher not on the Opening Day Roster who makes the greatest subsequent contribution (WAR)? Jarren Duran
-Player to throw the first punch of the year (no pushes - a true swing)? JD Martinez
-Player with the greatest number of suspension days? Ryan Brasier
-Stupidest Facial Hair at All-Star Break? Verdugo

I'm seeing a Porcello-like season from Pivetta where he has an average ERA but a ridiculous amount of run support. This team is going to hit some dingers.
 

Danny_Darwin

Member
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Jul 19, 2005
1,883
87-75, competing into September, miss the 2nd WC by a narrow margin.


-Team leader in Wins? Eovaldi
-Team leader in Saves? M. Barnes
-Team leader for Batting Average (qualifying)? JD Martinez
-Team leader in HR? JD Martinez
-Team leader in Steals? E. Hernandez
-Team leader in HBP? Bobby Dalbec
-Alex Cora discipline handed down by MLB? (Yes/No.) Not for the video thing but maybe for getting into it with an umpire
-Player who makes the Opening Day Roster, who subsequently spends the greatest number of days on the DL? If Franchy doesn’t start the season on the DL it’s him, otherwise Richards
-Pitcher not on the Opening Day Roster who makes the greatest subsequent contribution (WAR)? someone not currently a part of the organization. Let’s say Rick Porcello.
-Non-Pitcher not on the Opening Day Roster who makes the greatest subsequent contribution (WAR)? Jeter Downs and Jarren Duran in a virtual tie
-Player to throw the first punch of the year (no pushes - a true swing)? Renfroe
-Player with the greatest number of suspension days? Renfroe
-Stupidest Facial Hair at All-Star Break? Verdugo
 

Tuff Ghost

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Jul 15, 2005
435
Those predicting an upper-80s and 90-win team, so you think we're a mid-90s team if we had Chris Sale for the full season? (Or I'm reading too much into the natural pre-season optimism?)

I would be pleased with anything approaching mid-80s and enjoyable games.
As someone who projected 87 wins, I'll offer my thoughts. I see Sale as (hopefully) a 4 to 5 WAR pitcher over a full season at this point, so let's estimate 4.5 WAR. I also think he'll be back mid-to-late summer and get up to 10 starts. Considering that, we'll say he comes back, shakes off some rust, and gets less than 1/3 of his normal full-season WAR: 1 WAR for Sale this year.

That means we are now missing 3.5 WAR from a full Sale season. But I think our rotation actually has a little depth this year, so I don't think we'll be stuck with a 0 WAR or negative WAR starting pitcher filling in for him. His 20-25 starts that are replaced by others won't get 3.5 WAR, but it is reasonable to think they could get 1.5 WAR out of them (for example: Perez in 2019 had 1.8fWAR, Pivetta in 2018 had 2.8 fWAR).

That take now leaves 2 WAR lost to Sale's time out, thus taking my full-season Sale alternative universe projection to 89 wins (+2).

In short, no, I don't think they're a mid-90s win team with Sale for a couple of reasons: (a.) They have more pitching depth than last year, and (b.) Sale is probably not going to be a 6+ WAR pitcher at this point. I do think they'll be multiple games over .500 thanks to a strong offense and satisfactory-enough pitching.

I will acknowledge that the injury risks are high, so this could all be derailed by May 1st if Richards, Rodriguez, and Eovaldi are stuck on the IL. Until then, spring is in bloom, I hear birds chipping outside my window reminding me of the music in the world, I see small buds on the trees, full of potential, signaling beautiful days ahead, and everyone at spring training is in the absolute best shape of their lives. This time of year, now and forever, hope springs eternal.
 

johnnywayback

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Aug 8, 2004
1,260
Awww yeah. I say 84-78.

-Team leader in Wins? Rodriguez
-Team leader in Saves? Darwinzon Hernandez
-Team leader for Batting Average (qualifying)? Bogaerts
-Team leader in HR? Bogaerts
-Team leader in Steals? Hernandez
-Team leader in HBP? Marwin Gonzalez
-Alex Cora discipline handed down by MLB? (Yes/No.) No
-Player who makes the Opening Day Roster, who subsequently spends the greatest number of days on the DL? Austin Brice
-Pitcher not on the Opening Day Roster who makes the greatest subsequent contribution (WAR)? Tanner Houck
-Non-Pitcher not on the Opening Day Roster who makes the greatest subsequent contribution (WAR)? Jarren Duran
-Player to throw the first punch of the year (no pushes - a true swing)? Marwin Gonzalez
-Player with the greatest number of suspension days? Kevin Plawecki (he's gonna punch a cop)
-Stupidest Facial Hair at All-Star Break? Bobby Dalbec
 

wiffleballhero

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Mar 28, 2009
3,092
In the simulacrum
85-89 because it is still March and I am an optimist but not exactly enthusiastically optimistic. I just don't see where the pitching comes from.


-Stupidest Facial Hair at All-Star Break? Bloom (neck beard)
 

Sin Duda

lurker
Jul 16, 2005
84
(B)Austin Texas
Team Wins: 88 (may grab second WC)

Rodriguez=Wins
Barnes=Saves
Verdugo=BA (Xander gives him a run for it)
Devers=HR (bounce back)
Verdugo=Steals (will anyone steal even 15?)
Martinez=HBP (top 3 from 2019 are all gone; JBJ, BrockHolt!, 10D)
No=Cora discipline
Cordero=DL Days
Sale=Pitcher WAR not on roster
Chavis=Player WAR not on roster (presuming he is not ready for opening day)
Chavis=1st punch (tries too hard to prove he belongs)
Chavis=Suspension
Whitlock=Stupidest Facial Hair (finally free of Yankee tyranny)
 
Last edited:

Rovin Romine

Johnny Rico
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Jul 14, 2005
12,812
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I'm going with 88 wins, no playoffs.

-Team leader in Wins? E-Rod
-Team leader in Saves? Barnes
-Team leader for Batting Average (qualifying)? Devers
-Team leader in HR? Devers
-Team leader in Steals? Xander
-Team leader in HBP? Verdugo
-Alex Cora discipline handed down by MLB? (Yes/No.) Yes.
-Player who makes the Opening Day Roster, who subsequently spends the greatest number of days on the DL? Richards
-Pitcher not on the Opening Day Roster who makes the greatest subsequent contribution (WAR)? Houck
-Non-Pitcher not on the Opening Day Roster who makes the greatest subsequent contribution (WAR)?Duran
-Player to throw the first punch of the year (no pushes - a true swing)? Chavis
-Player with the greatest number of suspension days? Eovaldi
-Stupidest Facial Hair at All-Star Break? As if anyone has an edge on Verdugo.
 

Seels

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Jul 20, 2005
3,704
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You guys are wildly optimistic. I don't see how this team is even .500. What do they do particularly well? The division got harder. They were a .400 team last year that probably overachieved.

Didn't vote, think this is easily the worst Sox team of the last 25 years, and have a hard time seeing them break 80 wins. I'd guess something like 72-90. That 2012 team that went 69-93 was more talented than this.
 

Heating up in the bullpen

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Nov 24, 2007
314
Pittsboro NC
86-76, miss the playoffs

-Wins? ERod
-Saves? Barnes
-Batting Average (qualifying)? Xander
-HR? Dalbec
-Steals? Duran
-HBP? Verdugo (would be Devers, but he swings at three pitches that hit him)
-Alex Cora discipline ? No
-Days on the DL? Richards
-Pitcher (WAR)? Houck
-Non-Pitcher (WAR)? Duran
-first punch? Renfro
-suspension days? Eovaldi
-Stupidest Facial Hair at All-Star Break? Richards (that mustache already freaks me out)
 

nvalvo

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Jul 16, 2005
17,931
Rogers Park
89 wins and the second wildcard.

edit (switched to the laptop to edit these...)

-Team leader in Wins? Richards
-Team leader in Saves? Barnes
-Team leader for Batting Average (qualifying)? Bogaerts
-Team leader in HR? Franchy
-Team leader in Steals? Franchy
-Team leader in HBP? Marwin
-Alex Cora discipline handed down by MLB? (Yes/No.)
-Player who makes the Opening Day Roster, who subsequently spends the greatest number of days on the DL? Plawecki
-Pitcher not on the Opening Day Roster who makes the greatest subsequent contribution (WAR)? Sale
-Non-Pitcher not on the Opening Day Roster who makes the greatest subsequent contribution (WAR)? Wong
-Player to throw the first punch of the year (no pushes - a true swing)? Verdugo
-Player with the greatest number of suspension days? Chavis
-Stupidest Facial Hair at All-Star Break? Richards
 
Last edited:

DeadlySplitter

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Oct 20, 2015
23,223
Didn't vote, think this is easily the worst Sox team of the last 25 years, and have a hard time seeing them break 80 wins. I'd guess something like 72-90. That 2012 team that went 69-93 was more talented than this.
I hope this is an ironic post. They clearly have more talent than last year. Yeah they probably don't have a true closer, leadoff hitter, or center fielder, and the rotation has no injury safety net, but they have actual major leaguers in holes they did not last year.

The 2012 team was 59-66, or a bit below average, before the AGon trade and then the team entirely checked out. Not close to comparable.
 

nvalvo

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You guys are wildly optimistic. I don't see how this team is even .500. What do they do particularly well? The division got harder. They were a .400 team last year that probably overachieved.

Didn't vote, think this is easily the worst Sox team of the last 25 years, and have a hard time seeing them break 80 wins. I'd guess something like 72-90. That 2012 team that went 69-93 was more talented than this.
Offense. They had somewhere around the 10th or 11th-best offense in 2020 (9th in wOBA, 11th in wRC+, 10th in OBP, 8th in SLG...), and that was with total washes from Benintendi, JDM, Peraza, and Chavis. They should be much better than that this season. The projections have them scoring 5.26 R/G, which is 6th in baseball, or one one hundredth behind the defending Los Angeles Dodgers.

Something that people are forgetting is that last year Boston only played teams in two of the toughest divisions in baseball (the NL West is also up there). The only bad team we played last year was the Orioles — both the Nats and Mets had good rosters that seriously underperformed.

That's particularly true of opposing offenses. Yes, our masking-tape-and-baling wire pitching staff got demolished, but it got demolished while only facing the following ranked offenses:

#2 (ATL); #4 (NYY); #6 (PHL); #7 (TOR); #10 (WAS); #12 (TBR); #13 (NYM); #17 (BAL); #21 (MIA)

Seven of those nine teams were in the top half of offenses; five were in the top third. In contrast, eight of the bottom eleven offenses were in the AL Central or NL Central division, which is why I will not be surprised at all when Trevor Bauer massively disappoints this season.
 

Hank Scorpio

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Apr 1, 2013
5,692
78-84... there are a few pleasant surprises, but also some pretty big disappointments.

W: Eduardo Rodriguez
Sv: Matt Barnes
AVG: Xander Bogaerts
HR: Xander Bogaerts
SB: Xander Bogaerts and Hunter Renfroe (tie)
HBP: Marwin Gonzalez
Cora Discipline: For what? No.
Time on DL: Nathan Eovaldi
Pitcher WAR, not on OD Roster: Chris Sale
Non-pitcher WAR, not on OD Roster: Franchy Cordero
First Punch: Marwin Gonzalez
Most Days Suspended: Garrett Whittock
Stupidest Facial Hair: Alex Verdugo
 

j-man

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Dec 19, 2012
2,119
Arkansas
this is a 500 team your off will be good but other then erod eovadi and maybe 10 sale starts where is the pitching and ovvino might do great aga NYY but last year he lost a step with NYY/TB MINNCWS /TOR and maybe HOU/ OAK LAA u will need at least 87 wins to have a shot your best hope is beat Tor 12 times hope Minn/chi take time to gel and only win 85-88 games oh and tampa comes down to earth
 

Kliq

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Mar 31, 2013
14,620
I admire the optimism and while I can squint and see how this could be a very good team, I voted for the lowest win total and probably would have voted for a lower option if it was available. I think they lose 90 games. The pitching staff is just way too fragile and I don't think the bullpen will be good enough to make up for it if they have to go to using openers with regularity. They'll be fun to watch because they should be able to hit with Bogaerts and Devers, and I think Verdugo will be quite good this season as well. Dalbec could be fun (or not fun) but I'm worried about JDM's ability to bounce back.
 

Rovin Romine

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You guys are wildly optimistic. I don't see how this team is even .500. What do they do particularly well? The division got harder. They were a .400 team last year that probably overachieved.

Didn't vote, think this is easily the worst Sox team of the last 25 years, and have a hard time seeing them break 80 wins. I'd guess something like 72-90. That 2012 team that went 69-93 was more talented than this.
There's a ton of volatility here, certainly. A couple of injuries, a regression or two, and yes, they're a sub-.500 team.

OTOH, in good-to-optimal outcome, Boegarts, Devers, and JD are an excellent lineup core, with Vergudo, Vazquez, and Dalbec being very strong pieces. Likewise a "good year" rotation of E-Rod, Eovaldi, Pivetta, and Houk/Richards/Perez/.5 Sale, ought to be solid enough. The bullpen remains a question mark, but there are some decent players in there.

I think, optimally, they might be a WC team. But it you split the difference on outcomes, some good, some bad, I think they're still a touch above .500.

But that assumes a play-to-win mentality where all the pieces are used without an eye to the far future. But in a "maybe" year, will the club burn options on talented minor leaguers and start clocks early? Will they decide to audition some players for trade? Will they take a "development" route and keep Dalbec (or another like him) in the lineup even though they become a black hole?

I expect the early returns will matter. If they're hot, you might see more "game winning" play. If they suck, it might cause an early trend to approaching games as though this was a "bridge year."
 

nvalvo

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Jul 16, 2005
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Yeah, I admit I'm buying in too much to great springs from guys like Dalbec, Arroyo, Hernandez, and Gonzalez. I picked 89 above, and I'll stick with it in the spirit of the game, but I think more dispassionately I would expect something more in the 80-85 range.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Maine
FWIW, the majority of projections in this poll/thread fall in line with Fangraphs projection, which is 85 wins and missing the wildcard by two games.

So it would seem that we're not being overly optimistic here. The prognostications of sub-.500, on par with 2012 levels of bad are overly pessimistic.
 

Philip Jeff Frye

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Oct 23, 2001
7,818
I just can't see this pitching staff, both the starters and the bullpen, holding together. Even before Covid, ERod was a question mark - he was pretty good in 2019, but that's the only time in his career than he's been healthy and effective the whole year. We know Eovaldi is good for a DL trip or two, Richards is probably even worse in that regard. Who knows when and what we get from Sale? The bullpen has the potential to be really bad. I can't believe we're going into another season with Barnes as our closer. The offense should be fine if Devers and JDM bounce back, which seem reasonably likely to happen, but the defense is going to be bad - another minus for the already stressed pitching staff. I'm down for 75 wins, which would at least be progress from last season. Having to play a lot against the non-Baltimore teams in the AL East doesn't help.

Wins: Rodriguez
Saves: Ottavino
AVG: Devers
HR: Devers
SB: Renfroe
HBP: No idea
Cora Suspension: Sure, why not?
Most Time on DL: Richards
Pitcher WAR, not on Roster: Sale
Non-pitcher WAR, not on Roster: Duran
Throws the First Punch:JDM
Most Days Suspended: Darwinzon Hernandez
Stupidest Facial Hair: Verdugo
 
Last edited:

The Raccoon

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Jul 24, 2018
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I'm stupidly optimistic and go for 85 wins (or 52.5%).

-Team leader in Wins? ERod
-Team leader in Saves? Barnes
-Team leader for Batting Average (qualifying)? XB
-Team leader in HR? JDM
-Team leader in Steals? Kiké
-Team leader in HBP? Marwin Gonzalez
-Alex Cora discipline handed down by MLB? (Yes/No.) NO
-Player who makes the Opening Day Roster, who subsequently spends the greatest number of days on the DL? Pérez
-Pitcher not on the Opening Day Roster who makes the greatest subsequent contribution (WAR)? Sale
-Non-Pitcher not on the Opening Day Roster who makes the greatest subsequent contribution (WAR)? Wong
-Player to throw the first punch of the year (no pushes - a true swing)? Gonzalez
-Player with the greatest number of suspension days? Gonzalez
-Stupidest Facial Hair at All-Star Break? Verdugo
 

BaseballJones

goalpost mover
SoSH Member
Oct 1, 2015
11,973
Offensively, I think Boston has a few all-star level hitters, a number of guys with real potential at least to provide serious pop, and a bunch of moving parts that they can use to mix-and-match.

My predicted main starters and some guesses on their 2021 production (I can't in all honesty call these "projections")...

C - Vazquez - .268, 13 hr
1b - Dalbec - .240, 25 hr (this guy has huge power to all fields)
2b - Hernandez - .280, 12 hr
3b - Devers - .295, 31 hr
SS - Bogaerts - .300, 28 hr
LF - Renfroe - .225, 26 hr
CF - Verdugo - .290, 22 hr
RF - Cordero - .235, 17 hr
DH - Martinez - .280, 24 hr (I think he'll be better than 2020, but he will not be what he once was)
Sub - Gonzalez - .250, 11 hr
Sub - Chavis - .238, 15 hr

So I think this lineup will have a LOT of power - nobody who's an insane bomber, but up and down the lineup they will hit home runs. They will strike out a ton, but will put runs up on the board. But they'll be inconsistent, I think. Some games they'll pour it on, and they'll go through stretches where they can't put anything on the board. And it will be frustrating.

The pitching will be the issue, I think. And they'll need the pitching to step up because the offense will be hit or miss. And I think the pitching will struggle. But on the whole, they have a chance to win 88-90 games if things go well.
 

cornwalls@6

Less observant than others
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Apr 23, 2010
2,658
from the wilds of western ma
85-87 wins, just missing the 2nd wildcard. Actually think this will be a fun, competitive club, particularly offensively. Pitching is obviously the big weakness. But if Sale ends up being a legit, mid season boost to the rotation, and one or two bullpen guys can over perform a little bit, then I think 88-90, and a wildcard, is not out of the question. Bigger picture I like what Bloom has done, within the confines of what he inherited in terms of a pretty bare prospect cupboard, and an unfavorable luxury tax situation. I think this is a legit, competitive, representative MLB roster. And I'm pretty optimistic that '22 and beyond sees them return to full blown, serious contender status.
 

ookami7m

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Jul 15, 2005
4,777
Mobile, AL
88 Wins and just outside the WC

-Team leader in Wins? Eduardo Rodriguez
-Team leader in Saves? Ottavino
-Team leader for Batting Average (qualifying)? Xander
-Team leader in HR? Devers
-Team leader in Steals? Hernandez
-Team leader in HBP? Verdugo
-Alex Cora discipline handed down by MLB? (Yes/No.) no
-Player who makes the Opening Day Roster, who subsequently spends the greatest number of days on the DL? Eovaldi
-Pitcher not on the Opening Day Roster who makes the greatest subsequent contribution (WAR)? Sale
-Non-Pitcher not on the Opening Day Roster who makes the greatest subsequent contribution (WAR)? Duran
-Player to throw the first punch of the year (no pushes - a true swing)? Richards
-Player with the greatest number of suspension days? Verdugo
-Stupidest Facial Hair at All-Star Break? Verdugo
 

johnnywayback

Member
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Aug 8, 2004
1,260
The thing about the pitching is that there is a difference, a big and important one, between mediocre and awful. I agree that the most optimistic projections require Rodriguez and Eovaldi staying healthy, and Pivetta being a fungible starter, and Sale coming back as Sale. But if that doesn't happen, we'll be looking at starting guys like Garrett Whitlock and Matt Andriese and Tanner Houck and Connor Seabold -- which, while certainly not ideal and not a recipe for a playoff team, is significantly better than starting guys like Kyle Hart and Matt Hall and Ryan Weber and Zack Godley.

Separately: last year's team got nothing from JD Martinez and a subpar season from Devers -- really, they can only be better. Last year's team got nothing from Benintendi -- no way to get less. We've upgraded Chavis/Peraza/Arauz's sub-650 OPS to Hernandez/Gonzalez/Renfroe.

Like, a bunch of stuff would have to go right for the team to win 90 games. But way more -- a staggering amount -- would have to go wrong for them to be as bad as last year. That's the point of depth.
 

Tuff Ghost

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
435
<snip> but the defense is going to be bad </snip>
I think people may be a little too hard on the Sox defense.

Outfield:
From 2019-2020, Renfroe has been the 41st best qualified OF for Outs Above Average (OAA). He is +4 over that stretch.
Verdugo, over the same stretch, has been 50th and +3 OAA.

During that same time frame, Benintendi was -11 OAA and 125th, so that is an addition by subtraction that somewhat off-sets the loss of Betts (+9 OAA) and Bradley (+15 OAA).

The outfield should be steady and a bit above average. Cordero is also a total of +3 OAA in his career (still a sample size, but probably enough to know he will not be terrible).

2019-2020 (combined) Outs Above Average:
Bradley Jr: +15 OAA
Betts: +9 OAA
Renfroe: +4 OAA
Verdugo: +3 OAA
Benintendi: -11 OAA

Infield:
Bogaerts is not great and probably would be ideally suited to move to 3B at this point (-13 OAA the last 2 years). (With all of the positional flexibility on this roster, maybe he can get a little DH time this year and let Hernandez, Gonzalez, or Arroyo get reps at short, too.)
Devers has had more bad seasons than good, but he was very good in 2019. His 2019 season at +13 OAA was tied for the fifth best of all 3B seasons from 2016-2020:
39755

Devers has shown he can be good and if they keep it a focus, then the potential is absolutely there to be a plus defender. I'll take an average season from him defensively if he can get his bat back to where it was, but it's probably too early to give up on his defense.

Enrique Hernandez has been a +5 OAA second basemen the past two years (combined).
Marwin Gonzalez has been a +6 OAA third basemen and +5 OAA first basemen the past two years (combined).
Dalbec looks fine to me and the tiny sample of last year had him +1 OAA, so he's at least unlikely to be a disaster.
Vazquez is an above average framer (81st percentile last year, 76th percentile 2019).

Besides having Bogaerts at SS, the defense should be in okay shape and I think assuming it will be straight-up "bad" is overly pessimistic.
 

pk1627

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May 24, 2003
1,833
Cambridge
Edit: and back to my original thoughts now that Barnes and 8 others are ok.

This can be a decent team if someone like Cordero turns on (a la Ortiz 2003) and a pitcher like Richards is surprisingly good. I pick 90 wins. Cora will have these guys gelling. Make the playoffs? Yes

-Team leader in Wins? Eduardo Rodriguez
-Team leader in Saves? Barnes
-Team leader for Batting Average (qualifying)? Xander
-Team leader in HR? Devers
-Team leader in Steals? Duran
-Team leader in HBP? Dalbec
-Alex Cora discipline handed down by MLB? (Yes/No.) Now I understand. Yes. There will be some brushback wars (see Pivetta below) and Cora will get a day.
-Player who makes the Opening Day Roster, who subsequently spends the greatest number of days on the DL? Reliever. I’ll guess Whitlock
-Pitcher not on the Opening Day Roster who makes the greatest subsequent contribution (WAR)? Sale
-Non-Pitcher not on the Opening Day Roster who makes the greatest subsequent contribution (WAR)? Duran
-Player to throw the first punch of the year (no pushes - a true swing)? Pivetta
-Player with the greatest number of suspension days? Pivetta
-Stupidest Facial Hair at All-Star Break? Vaz
 
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Rovin Romine

Johnny Rico
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Jul 14, 2005
12,812
Miami (oh, Miami!)
Just a reminder, with the E-rod news and any other stuff coming down the pipe. If you want to qualify for the no-prize you can edit your choices up until Opening Day.

Please pick an exact number of wins.
 

JM3

Member
SoSH Member
Dec 14, 2019
300
85 wins, no playoffs.

-Team leader in Wins? Perez
-Team leader in Saves? Barnes
-Team leader for Batting Average (qualifying)? Verdugo
-Team leader in HR? Devers
-Team leader in Steals? Duran
-Team leader in HBP? Verdugo
-Alex Cora discipline handed down by MLB? (Yes/No.)
-Player who makes the Opening Day Roster, who subsequently spends the greatest number of days on the DL? Eovaldi
-Pitcher not on the Opening Day Roster who makes the greatest subsequent contribution (WAR)? Sale
-Non-Pitcher not on the Opening Day Roster who makes the greatest subsequent contribution (WAR)? Duran
-Player to throw the first punch of the year (no pushes - a true swing)? none
-Player with the greatest number of suspension days? Marwin
-Stupidest Facial Hair at All-Star Break? Walden
 

Minneapolis Millers

Member
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Jul 15, 2005
2,739
Twin Cities
-Team wins: 85, no playoffs
-Team leader in Wins? E-Rod, 13
-Team leader in Saves? Barnes, 17
-Team leader for Batting Average (qualifying)? Bogaerts, .304
-Team leader in HR? Devers, 34
-Team leader in Steals? Duran, 14
-Team leader in HBP? Vazquez, 5
-Alex Cora discipline handed down by MLB? (Yes/No.) No
-Player who makes the Opening Day Roster, who subsequently spends the greatest number of days on the DL? Eovaldi, 28 IL days
-Pitcher not on the Opening Day Roster who makes the greatest subsequent contribution (WAR)? Sale, 2.1 WAR
-Non-Pitcher not on the Opening Day Roster who makes the greatest subsequent contribution (WAR)? Duran
-Player to throw the first punch of the year (no pushes - a true swing)? Renfroe
-Player with the greatest number of suspension days? Barnes
-Stupidest Facial Hair at All-Star Break? J.Taylor
 
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Apisith

Member
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Oct 19, 2007
2,522
Bangkok
92 wins. I'm a homer.
-Team leader in Wins? Richards.
-Team leader in Saves? Barnes.
-Team leader for Batting Average (qualifying)? Xander.
-Team leader in HR? Xander. He should be at his physical peak.
-Team leader in Steals? Duran.
-Team leader in HBP? JD Martinez.
-Alex Cora discipline handed down by MLB? (Yes/No.) No.
-Player who makes the Opening Day Roster, who subsequently spends the greatest number of days on the DL? Dalbec.
-Pitcher not on the Opening Day Roster who makes the greatest subsequent contribution (WAR)? Sale.
-Non-Pitcher not on the Opening Day Roster who makes the greatest subsequent contribution (WAR)? Duran.
-Player to throw the first punch of the year (no pushes - a true swing)? Chavis.
-Player with the greatest number of suspension days? Barnes.
-Stupidest Facial Hair at All-Star Break? Verdugo.
 

grimshaw

Member
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May 16, 2007
3,546
Portland
-Team leader in Wins? Martin Perez. Battle of attrition. Lot of bullpen wins.
-Team leader in Saves? Darwinzon Hernandez
-Team leader for Batting Average (qualifying)? X
-Team leader in HR? Devers
-Team leader in Steals? X
-Team leader in HBP? Devers
-Alex Cora discipline handed down by MLB? (Yes/No.) Yes. Some sort of minor undisclosed fine.
-Player who makes the Opening Day Roster, who subsequently spends the greatest number of days on the DL? Eovaldi
-Pitcher not on the Opening Day Roster who makes the greatest subsequent contribution (WAR)? Seabold (1.5)
-Non-Pitcher not on the Opening Day Roster who makes the greatest subsequent contribution (WAR)? Triston Casas (2)
-Player to throw the first punch of the year (no pushes - a true swing)? None but I think Verdugo gets punched.
-Player with the greatest number of suspension days? Verdugo

I'll put them at 85. The bullpen is way better, and the lineup is extremely versatile and will be difficult to pitch to. They also have actual MLB ready talent in the upper minors and I believe enough pieces to make moves if they are in the mix. Sucks they play the NL East again though.
 
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HangingW/ScottCooper

Member
SoSH Member
Nov 10, 2006
2,035
Scituate, MA
How many games will this team win? 85 Wins
-Team leader in Wins? E.Rod
-Team leader in Saves? Ottavino
-Team leader for Batting Average (qualifying)? Xander
-Team leader in HR? Devers
-Team leader in Steals? Xander
-Team leader in HBP? Devers
-Alex Cora discipline handed down by MLB? (Yes/No.) No
-Player who makes the Opening Day Roster, who subsequently spends the greatest number of days on the DL? Eovaldi
-Pitcher not on the Opening Day Roster who makes the greatest subsequent contribution (WAR)? Matt Barnes
-Non-Pitcher not on the Opening Day Roster who makes the greatest subsequent contribution (WAR)? Duran
-Player to throw the first punch of the year (no pushes - a true swing)? Vazquez
-Player with the greatest number of suspension days? Martin Perez
-Stupidest Facial Hair at All-Star Break? Vazquez
 

WV Sox Fan

lurker
Jul 16, 2005
17
Harpers Ferry, WV
How many games will this team win? 86 Wins
-Team leader in Wins? E-Rod with 14
-Team leader in Saves? Ottavino 23
-Team leader for Batting Average (qualifying)? Xander .311
-Team leader in HR? Devers 35
-Team leader in Steals? Verdugo 11
-Team leader in HBP? Devers
-Alex Cora discipline handed down by MLB? (Yes/No.) No
-Player who makes the Opening Day Roster, who subsequently spends the greatest number of days on the DL? Richards
-Pitcher not on the Opening Day Roster who makes the greatest subsequent contribution (WAR)? Sale
-Non-Pitcher not on the Opening Day Roster who makes the greatest subsequent contribution (WAR)? Duran
-Player to throw the first punch of the year (no pushes - a true swing)? Vazquez
-Player with the greatest number of suspension days? None
-Stupidest Facial Hair at All-Star Break? Verdugo

Team misses out on Wild Card berth by 1 game after making August/September run fueled by Sale's return and Duran's elevation to starting lineup and lead off spot.
 

E5 Yaz

Transcends message boarding
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Apr 25, 2002
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82-80 if, that is, we get a full season

I think some things will bounce back (Devers) while others could very well not (JDM)

And I'm not sold at all on the starting rotation
 

pokey_reese

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Gold Supporter
SoSH Member
Jun 25, 2008
14,724
Eugene, OR
86

-Team leader in Wins? EdRo
-Team leader in Saves? Barnes
-Team leader for Batting Average (qualifying)? X
-Team leader in HR? Dalbec
-Team leader in Steals? Kike
-Team leader in HBP? Renfroe
-Alex Cora discipline handed down by MLB? (Yes/No.) No
-Player who makes the Opening Day Roster, who subsequently spends the greatest number of days on the DL? Richards
-Pitcher not on the Opening Day Roster who makes the greatest subsequent contribution (WAR)? Houck
-Non-Pitcher not on the Opening Day Roster who makes the greatest subsequent contribution (WAR)? Cordero
-Player to throw the first punch of the year (no pushes - a true swing)? Cordero
-Player with the greatest number of suspension days? Barnes
-Stupidest Facial Hair at All-Star Break? Arroyo
 

BaseballJones

goalpost mover
SoSH Member
Oct 1, 2015
11,973
82-80 if, that is, we get a full season

I think some things will bounce back (Devers) while others could very well not (JDM)

And I'm not sold at all on the starting rotation
For some reason, I’m pretty worried about JD Martinez.