Reconstructing the 2022 Schedule

[Mugsy's Jock]

First off, I know we all agree that the tragedy of the injury to Damar Hamlin is paramount, and football is only a game. I don't mean to undercut the seriousness of what Hamlin, his family, and the Bills are suffering.

This thread is intended to focus specifically on the interesting question of how best to preserve competitive integrity of the 2022 season. The NFL has announced the Bills/Bengals game will not be played this week, but at the moment, everything else seems to be on the table. I know I'd sure prefer the collective wisdom of SoSH to Commissioner Goodell... but also have to confess this isn't exactly an easy puzzle to put together.

Two sample solutions I've heard are:
1. Declare the Bills/Bengals game a no-contest, and go from there, picking up with a normal schedule in Week 18. I'm sure that's not fair to some team bye-wise, but it's the least disruptive and in some ways the most respectful solution.
2. Play the current Week 18 schedule, then play Bills/Bengals in Week 19 -- shoving the whole playoffs back a week by killing the off-week preceding the Super Bowl. It's fair... but having Bills/Bengals as the only game in Week 19, with just seeding at stake (not any team's actual playoff participation) seems excessive to me.

 

[trekfan55]

I would like to insist that the best play is to move week 18 to week 19. Not sure how easy or hard it would be, but it works best for everyone.

There are teams that are struggling to come to terms with what happened, and that affects practices/attitudes and more.

As the week moves on the NFL can then define what happens with this game (maybe play it on Sunday Night Jan 8th).

Maybe a moot point by now

 

[wilked]

First off, I know we all agree that the tragedy of the injury to Damar Hamlin is paramount, and football is only a game. I don't mean to undercut the seriousness of what Hamlin, his family, and the Bills are suffering.

This thread is intended to focus specifically on the interesting question of how best to preserve competitive integrity of the 2022 season. The NFL has announced the Bills/Bengals game will not be played this week, but at the moment, everything else seems to be on the table. I know I'd sure prefer the collective wisdom of SoSH to Commissioner Goodell... but also have to confess this isn't exactly an easy puzzle to put together.

Two sample solutions I've heard are:
1. Declare the Bills/Bengals game a no-contest, and go from there, picking up with a normal schedule in Week 18. I'm sure that's not fair to some team bye-wise, but it's the least disruptive and in some ways the most respectful solution.
2. Play the current Week 18 schedule, then play Bills/Bengals in Week 19 -- shoving the whole playoffs back a week by killing the off-week preceding the Super Bowl. It's fair... but having Bills/Bengals as the only game in Week 19, with just seeding at stake (not any team's actual playoff participation) seems excessive to me.

Seeding is not what will make it a crucial game. It's the bye that comes along with a #1 seed. It's huge to get that bye...

 

[BigJimEd]

See discussion in existing thread:

https://sonsofsamhorn.net/index.php?threads/my-guess-for-the-week-18-sch.38424/

 

[wilked]

One idea that comes to mind - a simple coinflip to determine winner of yesterday's game. One the one hand it seems crazy, but on the other hand... It's no more arbitrary than calling it a tie, and ties are kind of loser as it messes up tiebreakers (ironically).

If Bills and Bengals were offered it as a means to get a result, who says no? I can't see that either team thinks they are much more than 60-70% favorite (depending on which you talk to), so a 50/50 flip is not far off. In the same way, Chiefs and Ravens couldn't complain much for the same reasons

 

[cornwalls@6]

Declare last nights game a tie, and proceed with week 18 and the playoffs, as scheduled. Push the Bills/Pats to Monday afternoon, or even Tuesday night, if at all possible. It’s not perfect, and could affect seeding, etc. Too bad. Extraordinary circumstances. I also just don’t think it’s feasible to postpone the entire slate this weekend. The reality is, it may be a while before we know the long term prognosis for Hamlin. Provide all the other means of support possible to him, his family, and the Bills in the meantime.

 

[tims4wins]

One idea that comes to mind - a simple coinflip to determine winner of yesterday's game. One the one hand it seems crazy, but on the other hand... It's no more arbitrary than calling it a tie, and ties are kind of loser as it messes up tiebreakers (ironically).

If Bills and Bengals were offered it as a means to get a result, who says no? I can't see that either team thinks they are much more than 60-70% favorite (depending on which you talk to), so a 50/50 flip is not far off. In the same way, Chiefs and Ravens couldn't complain much for the same reasons

I could see this happening. I think it's a better idea than a tie. And it avoids having to reschedule anything at all.

 

[Jungleland]

Coin flip makes a lot of sense if it only determines Bills vs Bengals for 2 and 3. I think ultimately what's happening is week 18 goes off as scheduled, and Bills Bengals happens as a standalone week 19 game if it determines the 1 seed. Unfortunately for the NFL, it is extremely likely that the 1 seed needs that game to be decided. If the Patriots and Chiefs both win, then Buff and Cinci come to an agreement about how to decide which team is 2 and which is 3. It would not surprise me if that agreement doesn't involve making up last night's game.

Ultimately, this all also likely depends a good bit on Hamlin's health, but it feels too cynical and gross to speculate too much about what that means.

 

[GB5]

I don’t see a coin flip because I don’t trust the NFL not to put self interests ahead of the well being of the players.

The shallow take is that this game whenever it is rescheduled becomes a ratings bonanza for the TV people. With say a week to prep they will hump the hell out of the story, the family, the players, the doctors, anyone who had a hand in the moments from collapse until the game resumes will get profiled.
The NFL bows down to the TV people and my guess is that the TV execs will call in favors here.
Filming a coin flip ain’t going to cut it.

 

[macal]

Coin flip makes a lot of sense if it only determines Bills vs Bengals for 2 and 3. I think ultimately what's happening is week 18 goes off as scheduled, and Bills Bengals happens as a standalone week 19 game if it determines the 1 seed. Unfortunately for the NFL, it is extremely likely that the 1 seed needs that game to be decided. If the Patriots and Chiefs both win, then Buff and Cinci come to an agreement about how to decide which team is 2 and which is 3. It would not surprise me if that agreement doesn't involve making up last night's game.

Ultimately, this all also likely depends a good bit on Hamlin's health, but it feels too cynical and gross to speculate too much about what that means.

I'm close to this thinking also. I don't think there is a need to completely change scheduling for all teams. Play week 18 and see where you are at that point. If the Buff/Cincy game only decides who gets the 1 seed between KC and Buff, and doesn't affect anything else, then both of those teams (KC & Buff) can come to agreement as to whether Buff/Cincy game needs to be played. They may then decide that a coin flip is in both of their interests.

Another scenario if the only thing that needs to be determined is the 1 seed, would be a coin flip between KC and Buff. Whoever wins gets to decide whether they want the bye, or home field advantage. They don't get both.

 

[Awesome Fossum]

I don’t see a coin flip because I don’t trust the NFL not to put self interests ahead of the well being of the players.

The shallow take is that this game whenever it is rescheduled becomes a ratings bonanza for the TV people. With say a week to prep they will hump the hell out of the story, the family, the players, the doctors, anyone who had a hand in the moments from collapse until the game resumes will get profiled.
The NFL bows down to the TV people and my guess is that the TV execs will call in favors here.
Filming a coin flip ain’t going to cut it.

I think this is way off the mark. Set aside whether it would actually be a ratings bonanza and especially whether the NFL wants to shine as bright a light as possible on a player nearly dying on its field. If we're letting the TV people make the decision, I doubt they want to shuffle their programming for the following four weeks to accommodate a single game NFL Week 19. And the only broadcaster "helped" is whoever broadcasts the game. If that's ESPN, you are inconveniencing FOX, CBS, and NBC with no benefit to any.

 

[Dogman]

Call the game a tie. Give KC #1 seed. Buffalo and Cincy stay as #2 and 3 respectively. If one of them plays KC in the AFCCG, play the game at a neutral site.

 

[tims4wins]

Call the game a tie. Give KC #1 seed. Buffalo and Cincy stay as #2 and 3 respectively. If one of them plays KC in the AFCCG, play the game at a neutral site.

I think more importantly, a BUF-CIN divisional game would have to be at a neutral site.

 

[Dogman]

I should add a bit more. Tie awarded for last night. Play week 18 as scheduled. That basically means KC will get the #1 with Buffalo and Cincy as the 2 and 3. Add in your suggestion of a neutral site if Buff/Cincy play in the divisional round with the higher seed being home team and get gate receipts. Same thing happens with AFCCG at neutral site with KC being the home team and getting gate receipts. The NFL makes up any difference to the home team for any lost revenue.

 

[Awesome Fossum]

What's the logic in tie over no contest?

 

[nattysez]

2. Play the current Week 18 schedule, then play Bills/Bengals in Week 19 -- shoving the whole playoffs back a week by killing the off-week preceding the Super Bowl. It's fair... but having Bills/Bengals as the only game in Week 19, with just seeding at stake (not any team's actual playoff participation) seems excessive to me.

This is what's going to happen.

You can't reschedule all of week 18 due to the logistics. It's easy to reschedule one game.

I think the cost of ESPN having to cover an additional game will be made up by having the only game on the air.

It'll be rough for KC to have two weeks off before their first playoff game, but Philly will be ecstatic to be able to give Hurts extra rest.

 

[Toe Nash]

If we're not going to postpone the season indefinitely or anything like that, I don't think pushing the first round back to play one (1) game makes much sense. It's of course not the end of the world, but TV won't be happy because they have nothing to fill in for that weekend and they already have the week between the conference championships and the SB figured out (Grammys, NBA and NHL with a full slate, whatever else). For other teams, you're making the bye less useful if everyone is getting a bye. Fans who were expecting 6 playoff games will be annoyed (I know they get them later but they have to shift plans). You're hurting the hype week before the SB. Etc. And all for one game that just might determine seeding?

It should be up to the teams I guess but I would push for a coin flip. Or, you could do something "fun" like a 7 on 7 sudden death flag scrimmage on Wednesday to determine seeding. Make it clear that this was what the teams wanted and while they recognize the seriousness of what happened, they love the game, yadda yadda. Could be cool to watch actually. I imagine Josh Allen is much less dangerous when you just have to grab his flag instead of tackle him.

 

[Jungleland]

If we're not going to postpone the season indefinitely or anything like that, I don't think pushing the first round back to play one (1) game makes much sense. It's of course not the end of the world, but TV won't be happy because they have nothing to fill in for that weekend and they already have the week between the conference championships and the SB figured out (Grammys, NBA and NHL with a full slate, whatever else). For other teams, you're making the bye less useful if everyone is getting a bye. Fans who were expecting 6 playoff games will be annoyed (I know they get them later but they have to shift plans). You're hurting the hype week before the SB. Etc. And all for one game that just might determine seeding?

It should be up to the teams I guess but I would push for a coin flip. Or, you could do something "fun" like a 7 on 7 sudden death flag scrimmage on Wednesday to determine seeding. Make it clear that this was what the teams wanted and while they recognize the seriousness of what happened, they love the game, yadda yadda. Could be cool to watch actually. I imagine Josh Allen is much less dangerous when you just have to grab his flag instead of tackle him.

I think most would agree that a week 19 to determine home field between Buffalo and Cincinnati is not the most desirable outcome for really anyone - players, networks, league alike. However, a bye is significant enough that if the goal is upholding the competitive balance, it becomes much easier to tell the networks to pound sand if they complain. If week 18 goes off as scheduled, it’s hard to see week 19 not happening if it would determine the AFC 1 seed. In my view of it, at least.

 

[Red Averages]

For what it’s worth, DraftKings voided bets for the Bills-Bengals, so that resolves any gambling issues people were discussing.

 

[wilked]

A tie doesn’t work because it’s a decision by Goodell or Vincent. In essence they are picking winners (KC) and losers (BUF) by choosing that.

A coin flip at least leaves Lady Luck as the only arbiter and if you come out on the wrong end, you can curse the sky and move on to your next opponent without feeling like you got screwed by an individual

 

[cshea]

For what it’s worth, DraftKings voided bets for the Bills-Bengals, so that resolves any gambling issues people were discussing.

There's still future bets (Buffalo to finish first in the AFC, Ravens to win the AFC South, Burrow to throw 40 TD's passes, things like that) and the whole fantasy element. Refunding the slips on last night was the easy part.

 

[Cellar-Door]

For what it’s worth, DraftKings voided bets for the Bills-Bengals, so that resolves any gambling issues people were discussing.

Not even close. They voided that game, the bigger issues are basically all futures bets are screwed up now. You'd have to refund all AFC North bets, you'd likely need to refund a bunch of seed related futures bets, you'd need to refund a ton of player season prop bets, you might need to refund certain award prop bets, maybe some win totals bets, a bunch of various teasers for all of those categories. There are a lot of impacted bets still out there. And... you have to decide how you handle other tangentially related bets that are impacted by the game not being played.
Single game bets were always getting refunded, because if it's made up you can get them back, all the other bets impacted by not playing a competitive game are a lot more money and a lot more hassle.

 

[Shelterdog]

A tie doesn’t work because it’s a decision by Goodell or Vincent. In essence they are picking winners (KC) and losers (BUF) by choosing that.

A coin flip at least leaves Lady Luck as the only arbiter and if you come out on the wrong end, you can curse the sky and move on to your next opponent without feeling like you got screwed by an individual

I think that's right. And perhaps they can twist enough arms so that it looks like both teams agreed to let the winner be picked by a coin flip. There are a lot of downsides to both Cincy and Buffalo to playing each other in the only game of the week in week 19--more players might get hurt, it would be weird to play each other again at the site of the incident, their opponents would be resting up, they're probably not super psyched to play each other knowing they might see each other soon the playoffs, etc--so perhaps both teams would rather let the coin flip decide then play it out (or at least be able to say so publicly).

 

[BaseballJones]

There's still future bets (Buffalo to finish first in the AFC, Ravens to win the AFC South, Burrow to throw 40 TD's passes, things like that) and the whole fantasy element. Refunding the slips on last night was the easy part.

And that was just DraftKings, not every gambling institution in America.

 

[lexrageorge]

I think they will play Week 18 schedule as is. That may eliminate some of the probabilities. If the Cincy/Buffalo game still means something (other than perhaps a 2/3 seeding), then they may get creative to try to squeeze in the game and stagger some of the playoff games while also eliminating the bye week. Yes, some teams will get bye weeks they don't deserve, but the only other choice would be to make a Week 19 that has only the Buffalo/Cincy game on the AFC side.

 

[ObstructedView]

I think they will play Week 18 schedule as is. That may eliminate some of the probabilities. If the Cincy/Buffalo game still means something (other than perhaps a 2/3 seeding), then they may get creative to try to squeeze in the game and stagger some of the playoff games while also eliminating the bye week. Yes, some teams will get bye weeks they don't deserve, but the only other choice would be to make a Week 19 that has only the Buffalo/Cincy game on the AFC side.

I think this makes the most sense, as it avoids the short-notice rescheduling of games league-wide and allows for flexibility with the Buff-Cincy game depending on what's at stake once all other games have been played. I'm sure someone could poke holes in this approach, but as has been emphasized there are no perfect solutions under these circumstances.

 

[Ale Xander]

Clearly the only logical thing to do is move the Bills Patriots game to February 12th to the JMA Dome in Syracuse.

 

[ngruz25]

Are we even sure the Bills are going to be able to play on Sunday? This discussion feels a bit academic with Hamlin's status still unknown.

 

[j-man]

Are we even sure the Bills are going to be able to play on Sunday? This discussion feels a bit academic with Hamlin's status still unknown.

ne-buf is going to have to be pushed back at least a day maybe two because i think buff is not playing utill they know his cond now if PITT and mia loses then i couild see buff locked at 12-3 ciny at 11 or 12 -4 and KC the 1 seed

 

[DanoooME]

And that was just DraftKings, not every gambling institution in America.

Pretty much every Vegas book voided their bets as well.

 

[tims4wins]

View: https://twitter.com/rapsheet/status/1610649953105334273?s=46&t=W3BvqrVrh4Dub79tBt3nQw