Rebuilding?

cromulence · Feb 26, 2015

Your Yankee fan friends make the rest of us look bad. I think most reasonable Yankee fans would be very happy to be a mediocre team for a few years in order to escape the bad contracts and start fresh with a younger, hopefully largely home-grown team. The whole "We must win a championship every single season or it's a colossal failure" idea is dated and silly and I hope that most Yankee fans can recognize that. Of course, there will always be the entitled douches in the fanbase who disagree.

cromulence · Feb 26, 2015

LahoudOrBillyC said:
Makes sense. I think Red Sox fans are comparatively lucky because the 2009-11 spending spree was so obviously a failure, and the fall so dramatic, that the lesson was easier to grasp. If you win 85 games its easier to think "if we sign a few more old guys we can get back quickly." This is where my neighbor is at -- "if we had signed Scherzer we'd be the favorites!"

I don't understand the thought process behind that. Anyone with a brain can see that having contracts like A-Rod, Tex, and CC eventually becomes a long-term handicap that precludes the big signings like Scherzer because the money just piles up too much. At some point, you have to pass on a big free agent - you simply cannot get them all. Some Yankee fans are totally incapable of grasping this for some reason.

jon abbey · Feb 26, 2015

As always, I feel compelled to cite my thesis that the more a franchise wins, the dumber their fan base becomes in general. This is why the Yankee fan base in general may be the dumbest in all the land.

IMO NY had a really smart offseason* after a wildly idiotic one last year. I am not a fan of the Steinbrenner boys, they are not really smart enough (Hal is obviously much smarter than Hank, but still).

*with the exception of Moncada, I think they should have given him whatever it takes even if he will end up at 3B or in a corner OF spot.

jon abbey · Feb 26, 2015

NY managed to hold onto their extra first round pick for Robertson so they will pick at 16 and 30 this year.

bankshot1 · Feb 26, 2015

The Yankee's situation is somewhat complicated by the Mets. Now the Mets sucking is not a threat, but with a Mets team built on strong young pitching and one that could be good for a long time, the ability for the Ys to really tear it down may be constrained by fear of fan leakage. On the plus side, a lot of the pink hats move to Queens, and the average Y fan IQ will increase.

Snodgrass'Muff · Feb 26, 2015

jon abbey said:
NY managed to hold onto their extra first round pick for Robertson so they will pick at 16 and 30 this year.

This is what they need to do more of. Letting free agents walk with a qualifying offer to stockpile draft picks, avoid signing QO guys unless a huge opportunity for a bargain is there, and stockpile IFAs. They did one of the three last year. If they can have a strong draft this June, they'll be well on their way toward building the kind of young core they need to leverage their financial advantage in free agency into division favorite. A lot will need to go right, and they'll need some good luck with prospect development, but splashing the pot on the IFA top 30 was a good start. I'm surprised they didn't go the extra mile for Moncada, but I'll chalk that up to Ben playing that well and surprising House Steinbrenner. They clearly didn't have a problem going past the limit this year, they just guessed wrong in that one particular instance.

Regardless, they signed so many of the top IFA's this past summer that I'll be surprised if they don't end up with two or three major league regulars out of the group in four or five years and there's a decent chance they end up with an All Star caliber player. If that's how it plays out, and they can turn one of their established minor league crop (Judge or maybe Refsnyder?) into an All Star and end up with one more regular, they'll be in great shape.

In other words, there are hints that the Yankees are doing exactly what LOBC fears. Staying out of the free agent market this winter gives them two check marks out of the three I listed earlier. A strong draft and they are some patience and faith in the plan away from being scary again. I'm not convinced the Steinbrenner family has it in their genes to be patient for that long, but we'll see.

Snoop Soxy Dogg · Feb 26, 2015

jon abbey said:
As always, I feel compelled to cite my thesis that the more a franchise wins, the dumber their fan base becomes in general.

This is a great theory, I love it.

I can see where this is an extremely difficult equation for the Yankees though. I'm not sure how the TV thing (with the YES network) and the advertising revenue play into this, but a driving force of the Yankee business is that they are a winning team, if only in appearance. The impact of saying "we'll rebuild for the next 2-3 years" could be devastating for the business short term. I think one of the main reasons the Red Sox were able to even retool a little bit (in addition to getting saved by the Dodgers) was having that World Series in 2013; without that, I think people would be calling for Cherington to get fired, regardless of the state of the farm system.

I agree the Yankees had a very good, disciplined offseason. Maybe the trick here is to re-tool without saying explicitly that you're doing it, ratchet down the expectations ("the objective is to be "competitive" every year", rather than "World Series or bust"), build up the farm and play in the mid-level, cheap FA market. That requires some chops in the NY market; it actually seems to me that Hal has the discipline do it (though saying OK to Ellsbury and holding the line on Moncada is terribly inconsistent), though then again. The past 2-3 years were actually a great time to do this, with virtually all the other teams in town sucking.

If they're out of the playoffs again, I don't see how they can hold the line and not jump back into the FA market with another silly contract.

jon abbey · Feb 26, 2015

They're not signing any big guys next offseason just like they weren't signing any this offseason, because they have no big deals expiring after 2015. Cot's has them around $184M for basically ten players for 2016. They're not going to be big players in the FA market until after 2016 at least, that's when the Tex and Beltran deals expire.

https://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=tpQLwiiQL4kzEzLhsUqVjLQ&output=html

Plympton91 · Feb 27, 2015

People in this thread are talking as if the Yankees are 100 to 1 long shots to win the East this year. I think they've basically got as good a chance as anybody to sneak in, and once you do that...look at last year's Royals.

They've got airtight defense, a shutdown bullpen, and enough talent among those being written off (Beltran, Teixeira, Drew, McCann, ARod) that maybe 2 or 3 of the 5 have good years to go with typical years from Ells, Gardner, and Headley.

The kink in the armor is the fragile and shallow depth in the rotation. But if they get a little lucky, they might be a surprise team in 2015.

jon abbey · Feb 27, 2015

Yeah, they need a lot to break right, but I definitely feel better at this point of the year about the team than I did in 2013 or 2014.

Wingack · Feb 27, 2015

I am not opposed to the Yankees spending money. I just want them to be smart about it. Even if he is hurt right now, I support investing the funds and years into Tanaka, he was 25 when they signed him. Jayson Heyward turns 26 in August and is a FA at the end of this year. I would fully support the Yankees backing up the truck for a lefty swinger with that talent.

They can make smart moves without officially "rebuilding." I am however not opposed to them tearing it all down either, it's more interesting that way.

jon abbey · Feb 27, 2015

Wingack said:
Jason Heyward turns 26 in August and is a FA at the end of this year. I would fully support the Yankees backing up the truck for a lefty swinger with that talent.

And he's a great defensive player, but unless A-Rod or Beltran is totally off the roster, they're already going to be paying:

Gardner-LF ($13.5M)
Ellsbury-CF ($21.1M)
Beltran-RF/DH ($15M)
A-Rod-DH/3B ($21M)
Headley-3B ($13M)

There's no position for Heyward, even if he'd be a major long-term upgrade in RF. You can't even move A-Rod to 1B, because you have yet another big contract there in Tex ($23.1M).

Wingack · Feb 27, 2015

jon abbey said:
And he's a great defensive player, but unless A-Rod or Beltran is totally off the roster, they're already going to be paying:

Gardner-LF ($13.5M)
Ellsbury-CF ($21.1M)
Beltran-RF/DH ($15M)
A-Rod-DH/3B ($21M)
Headley-3B ($13M)

There's no position for Heyward, even if he'd be a major long-term upgrade in RF. You can't even move A-Rod to 1B, because you have yet another big contract there in Tex ($23.1M).

I see what you are saying but they should not let one year of a 39 year old Carlos Beltran, block a potential long-term high end solution in Heyward. They may need to get creative.

jon abbey · Feb 27, 2015

Like I said above, I'll be very surprised if they go after any big FA next offseason, Heyward or anyone else, but that's a long ways away still.

Saints Rest · Feb 27, 2015

Wingack said:
I see what you are saying but they should not let one year of a 39 year old Carlos Beltran, block a potential long-term high end solution in Heyward. They may need to get creative.

If some of the expiring 2016 contracts can have good years in 2015, those guys could then become options for subsidized trades. Beltran at $15M or Teix at $23M aren't attractive to mid-market teams, but how does a Beltran at $6M or Teix at $8M look to a Cinci or a KC or a PItt?

The larger problem that the Yankees must overcome is that they are only now seeming to be adjusting to the post-steroids, post-revenue sharing world. It is getting harder to buy young talent (e.g. Stanton) while also the old talent is getting back to a more natural non-PED aging trajectory. Everyone lauded the Sox' brilliant (#hindsightis20/20) approach to the 2012/2013 offseason with the signings of players like Napoli, Victorino and Gomes. And yes, obviously it worked wonders in 2013, but 2014 showed that in the post-PED era, players in their mid-30s are just as likely to get injured or lose effectiveness or both, as they are to continue to shine.

There's a famous quote about the error of fighting the last war, and I always misquote it, but that's what the Yankees have been stuck doing since 2008. They need to reimagine a new way to leverage their enormous financial advantages in the current system which has been re-jiggered over the last few years, -- both intentionally (revenue-sharing and luxury tax) and unintentionally (increased enforcement and penalties on PED use), -- to maximum impact. In short, they need to spend smarter, not spend less.

jon abbey · Feb 27, 2015

Saints Rest said:
There's a famous quote about the error of fighting the last war, and I always misquote it, but that's what the Yankees have been stuck doing since 2008.

Well, it's worth noting that the failed quest to get under $189M overwhelmed all of their decision-making for 2-3 offseasons, and then the idiotic overreaction in the other direction (signing seemingly anyone in the 2013 offseason who would take their money) continues to mess them up going forward. I do think for the first time this past offseason you saw NY reacting to the new reality by trying (and succeeding) to get younger, now the question is if guys like Gregorius and Eovaldi are actually long-term solutions. It was a great sign that they went nuts signing 16 year olds this past summer, it was a bad sign that they didn't seem to fully grasp the rare chance to splurge without many ramifications that was Moncada. It was probably a good sign that they didn't sign Cano for 10 years, but at the same time it was a bad sign that they signed Ellsbury for seven and an antique Beltran for three.

Also, I'd still like to see some hard numbers about just how profitable the Yankees are, because whenever Hal talks, he makes it seem like they're a lot more financially constricted than the rest of us think they should be.

Harry Hooper · Feb 27, 2015

jon abbey said:
Well, it's worth noting that the failed quest to get under $189M overwhelmed all of their decision-making for 2-3 offseasons, and then the idiotic overreaction in the other direction (signing seemingly anyone in the 2013 offseason who would take their money) continues to mess them up going forward. I do think for the first time this past offseason you saw NY reacting to the new reality by trying (and succeeding) to get younger, now the question is if guys like Gregorius and Eovaldi are actually long-term solutions. It was a great sign that they went nuts signing 16 year olds this past summer, it was a bad sign that they didn't seem to fully grasp the rare chance to splurge without many ramifications that was Moncada. It was probably a good sign that they didn't sign Cano for 10 years, but at the same time it was a bad sign that they signed Ellsbury for seven and an antique Beltran for three.

Also, I'd still like to see some hard numbers about just how profitable the Yankees are, because whenever Hal talks, he makes it seem like they're a lot more financially constricted than the rest of us think they should be.

The Yanks may well intend to not be players in the FA market next winter, but given what happened in the 2013 offseason how confident are you that they will stick to that plan?

jon abbey · Feb 27, 2015

Harry Hooper said:
The Yanks may well intend to not be players in the FA market next winter, but given what happened in the 2013 offseason how confident are you that they will stick to that plan?

Right, of course a lot can happen between now and then, but Hal has shown to be pretty constant about not going past the total spending limits he sets each year (the one big exception was his late acqueiscence on Teixeira when Cashman begged him, but the consequences from going over there were felt for the subsequent few offseasons).

I think if it ends up being a lost season without much development from the younger players, it's more likely Hal fires Cashman than NY spends $75M+ on any FA next offseason, a big FA would probably push them to the $250M+ range for 2016. I do expect them to be players in the FA market again after 2016, hopefully they're a bit more discriminating this time than they were in 2013.

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