Realignment 2023: Whither the Pac12?

[Dan Murfman]

One of the all time ACC greats getting it done in the Olympics.

View: https://twitter.com/theacc/status/1818735824021643329?s=61&t=mLlSRkfq4VtgCm4CvSpAPg

 

[Awesome Fossum]

lol that's hilarious

 

[AB in DC]

My first thought was that they were claiming her because she's from Maryland.

I am definitely way behind the times.

 

[grsharky7]

One of the all time ACC greats getting it done in the Olympics.

View: https://twitter.com/theacc/status/1818735824021643329?s=61&t=mLlSRkfq4VtgCm4CvSpAPg

Seems like stolen valor.

 

[sgfeer]

Seems like stolen valor.

All the leagues are doing it, Big 12 has as well and I think someone said Big ten also

 

[8slim]

Pac-12 adding Boise State, Colorado State, Fresno State and San Diego State for 2026-27. Two more schools and they have a viable conference.

Can someone explain to me what the value is for these schools to leave the Mountain West and join this new Pac-12? Needless to say, the Pac-12 is not going to be considered a power conference and won't get any unique benefits in the CFP.

Would the media rights for this reconstituted league be meaningfully better than the MW? I guess I don't see the end game here.

 

[Mooch]

Pac-12 adding Boise State, Colorado State, Fresno State and San Diego State for 2026-27. Two more schools and they have a viable conference.

Can someone explain to me what the value is for these schools to leave the Mountain West and join this new Pac-12? Needless to say, the Pac-12 is not going to be considered a power conference and won't get any unique benefits in the CFP.

Would the media rights for this reconstituted league be meaningfully better than the MW? I guess I don't see the end game here.

In short, yes, the media rights for the new PAC 12 would be much higher than the Mountain West. Joining a league with schools in Oregon and Washington far outweighs the markets they are leaving behind (New Mexico, Utah, Wyoming, Nevada). Plus, since the ACC is on shaky ground, there's a chance that Cal and Stanford come back as well.

 

[8slim]

In short, yes, the media rights for the new PAC 12 would be much higher than the Mountain West. Joining a league with schools in Oregon and Washington far outweighs the markets they are leaving behind (New Mexico, Utah, Wyoming, Nevada). Plus, since the ACC is on shaky ground, there's a chance that Cal and Stanford come back as well.

If I squint I could see the former occurring. Not the latter though. Cal and Stanford signed the ACC GOR. I can't imagine they'd pull an FSU and try to sue their way out of that.

 

[Mooch]

Since there are as many as seven schools looking to leave the ACC, there may not even be a conference, especially if UNC bolts.

 

[Awesome Fossum]

If I squint I could see the former occurring. Not the latter though. Cal and Stanford signed the ACC GOR. I can't imagine they'd pull an FSU and try to sue their way out of that.

I think the idea is more if FSU/Clemson do sue their way out, is enough damage done in the process that the whole conference splinters? Cal/Stanford/SMU were added specifically to prevent that. But you never know.

I guess another way to look at it is: what's the plan for the final two spots? Best case, some schools shake loose from the Big 12 or ACC for whatever reason. Worst case, two (or more?) MWC teams. Are there any other options? Memphis and Tulane?

 

[8slim]

I think the idea is more if FSU/Clemson do sue their way out, is enough damage done in the process that the whole conference splinters? Cal/Stanford/SMU were added specifically to prevent that. But you never know.

I guess another way to look at it is: what's the plan for the final two spots? Best case, some schools shake loose from the Big 12 or ACC for whatever reason. Worst case, two more MWC teams. Are there any other options? Memphis and Tulane?

Yep, I'm thinking they look to poach a couple of attractive AAC teams. I think they'd have grabbed all the MWC schools they wanted in one fell swoop. I imagine OSU and WSU, given what happened to them, are fine leaving the MWC at 8 so it's still a viable conference per NCAA rules.

My long term view is that eventually the ACC will break apart, with some schools going to the B1G (UVA, UNC, etc.) and some going to the SEC (VaTech, etc.). The rest could merge into a rebranded B12 that becomes the third power conference (in reality the 1/2 in what will be 2.5 power conferences).

Anyway, I'm just trying to puzzle out the financial incentives for these 4 MW schools to join the P12. Seems like they'll need to cut a new TV deal north of $125 million/year to make it worthwhile. The AAC's deal, signed 5 years ago, is $83M/year.

 

[8slim]

Since there are as many as seven schools looking to leave the ACC, there may not even be a conference, especially if UNC bolts.

My take is that there are two schools "looking" to leave the ACC. And there are a bunch more who would prefer to stay but will leave when they have no other choice, financially.

 

[Mooch]

My take is that there are two schools "looking" to leave the ACC. And there are a bunch more who would prefer to stay but will leave when they have no other choice, financially.

There have been reports of trustees at UNC who have been kicking the tires on leaving the ACC as well. If FSU, Clemson and North Carolina leave, the conference disintegrates.

 

[Mooch]

Yep, I'm thinking they look to poach a couple of attractive AAC teams. I think they'd have grabbed all the MWC schools they wanted in one fell swoop. I imagine OSU and WSU, given what happened to them, are fine leaving the MWC at 8 so it's still a viable conference per NCAA rules.

My long term view is that eventually the ACC will break apart, with some schools going to the B1G (UVA, UNC, etc.) and some going to the SEC (VaTech, etc.). The rest could merge into a rebranded B12 that becomes the third power conference (in reality the 1/2 in what will be 2.5 power conferences).

Anyway, I'm just trying to puzzle out the financial incentives for these 4 MW schools to join the P12. Seems like they'll need to cut a new TV deal north of $125 million/year to make it worthwhile. The AAC's deal, signed 5 years ago, is $83M/year.

Well, it's been assumed that the PAC12 will pay most of the exit fees for the 4 MW schools. And if some of the other schools leave, the MW dissolves and they don't owe anything at all. The MW TV deal only gives them $6M per school. That's NOTHING compared to what the new PAC12 would get in rights fees - Hell, the one year deal with the CW/FS1 with only two PAC12 teams is more than that.

 

[mic99]

There have been reports of trustees at UNC who have been kicking the tires on leaving the ACC as well. If FSU, Clemson and North Carolina leave, the conference disintegrates.

UNC is the real prize. I don't see what FSU or Clemson bring to the SEC other than splitting the revenue pie. I would think the Big Ten would be all over adding UVA but I doubt they have any interest in Va Tech.

 

[Mooch]

UNC is the real prize. I don't see what FSU or Clemson bring to the SEC other than splitting the revenue pie. I would think the Big Ten would be all over adding UVA but I doubt they have any interest in Va Tech.

Georgia Tech gets them into Atlanta as well. I'd imagine the Big Ten would want them too.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

UNC is the real prize. I don't see what FSU or Clemson bring to the SEC other than splitting the revenue pie. I would think the Big Ten would be all over adding UVA but I doubt they have any interest in Va Tech.

Clemson is a football powerhouse…UNC is not.

 

[Awesome Fossum]

Unless the Pac takes the entire MWC, the conference probably wouldn't dissolve. The surviving members would just go raid CUSA/FCS to keep the media deal and buyout money.

 

[canderson]

PAC should take SJSU and UNLV. A nice regional conference that has good basketball branding.

 

[Awesome Fossum]

I'm with @mic99 . UNC is a #brand and it expands the footprint in a coherent way.

View: https://twitter.com/realDHB/status/1658325075358097409

 

[Mooch]

Unless the Pac takes the entire MWC, the conference probably wouldn't dissolve. The surviving members would just go raid CUSA/FCS to keep the media deal and buyout money.

The MW media deal ends in 2026, the same year that the 4 teams move to the PAC12. The other schools will have some difficult choices to make.

 

[8slim]

There have been reports of trustees at UNC who have been kicking the tires on leaving the ACC as well. If FSU, Clemson and North Carolina leave, the conference disintegrates.

Yeah I get it. There are "reports" about everything when it comes to conference realignment.

The reality of the ACC is that it's going to take a LOT of money to exit the GoR, not to mention that the legality of doing so still hasn't been tested. FSU's first attempt at doing this hasn't gone particularly well.

I suspect the ACC hangs around for a few more years, and we don't see any movement there until we're a few years out from the end of the current deal/GOR. Then all hell breaks loose.

 

[8slim]

Anyway, I'm an ACC school alum and I find talking about their conference stuff to be tedious.

I'm just fascinated with this reconstituted Pac-12 and what they expect their new media deal to be worth. Can it really be a ton more than what the MWC would get if it stayed intact? Or what the AAC currently makes ($83M/year) plus inflation and market-driven increases? Can this new Pac-12 pull down more than $125M/year?

 

[mic99]

I'm with @mic99 . UNC is a #brand and it expands the footprint in a coherent way.

View: https://twitter.com/realDHB/status/1658325075358097409

UNC and to a lesser extend UVA are monster brands. The SEC already has South Carolina and Florida.

The only thing FSU brings is not allowing the Big 10 to plant a flag in Florida.

 

[Ale Xander]

I'm with @mic99 . UNC is a #brand and it expands the footprint in a coherent way.

View: https://twitter.com/realDHB/status/1658325075358097409

Would not have guessed Pitt was that high (and above UVA, VaTech and Nc State)

 

[Awesome Fossum]

Would not have guessed Pitt was that high (and above UVA, VaTech and Nc State)

Agreed. I don't know what the methodology was. But remember that Kenny Pickett-led Pitt won the ACC championship in 2021, so maybe just fortunate timing for a two-year sample.

 

[Mooch]

Anyway, I'm an ACC school alum and I find talking about their conference stuff to be tedious.

I'm just fascinated with this reconstituted Pac-12 and what they expect their new media deal to be worth. Can it really be a ton more than what the MWC would get if it stayed intact? Or what the AAC currently makes ($83M/year) plus inflation and market-driven increases? Can this new Pac-12 pull down more than $125M/year?

There was speculation that the MW was looking to double its existing rights deal (similar to what the Big East got) in the new contract in 2026. Since the four schools leaving represent the vast majority of TV viewership to the conference, you could see something like $80-$90M in value there alone. Adding in WSU and OSU and that could get you another $10-20M. Depending on how they round out the conference, I’d say your $125M could be in play.

 

[yeahlunchbox]

PAC should take SJSU and UNLV. A nice regional conference that has good basketball branding.

Especially if they could be the conference that can finally add Gonzaga.

My cousin mentioned UTSA as a possible Pac candidate to get the conference into Texas.

 

[Ale Xander]

Especially if they could be the conference that can finally add Gonzaga.

My cousin mentioned UTSA as a possible Pac candidate to get the conference into Texas.

Gonzaga hasn’t had a football team since 1941 though

I don’t think the B1G is gonna add BU . . .

 

[yeahlunchbox]

I understand they don't have football but adding them for everything but football adds a star basketball brand and all that entails for a conference that needs all the help it can get at this point.

It's not really outlandish since the Big 12 has been rumored to be interested at various times.

 

[sgfeer]

UNC and to a lesser extend UVA are monster brands. The SEC already has South Carolina and Florida.

The only thing FSU brings is not allowing the Big 10 to plant a flag in Florida.

I could see UVA and UNC as Big 10+++ brands before the SEC. However, SEC could certainly see UNC has a financial winner. Who would the SEC want to bring in with them? The other ACC brands that would seem like a good fit, FSU, Clemson and Miami probably are just doubling down on what they already have. I don't think those three have the SEC or Big 10 banging down their doors.

 

[Humphrey]

PAC should take SJSU and UNLV. A nice regional conference that has good basketball branding.

I can see that league wanting Vegas as it's become such a sports growth region (Knights, Raiders, A's soon). SJSU gets them in the Bay Area, but they're a very distant third to Stanford and Cal.

 

[Awesome Fossum]

I could see UVA and UNC as Big 10+++ brands before the SEC. However, SEC could certainly see UNC has a financial winner. Who would the SEC want to bring in with them? The other ACC brands that would seem like a good fit, FSU, Clemson and Miami probably are just doubling down on what they already have. I don't think those three have the SEC or Big 10 banging down their doors.

There's always Notre Dame.

 

[sgfeer]

There's always Notre Dame.

Always, and always will be for sure. ND will only move if they really have to. Big 10 won't play their toes in the water deal.

 

[BaseballJones]

It absolutely sucks beyond belief that football (and more precisely, football $$) is just destroying so much of what was good about college athletics. Football should have its own thing entirely, and then these conferences should once again be regional with traditional rivalries. Like, Syracuse football should be part of the overall football college league, but be back in the Big East for everything else. Creighton should be in some midwestern conference. Stanford shouldn't be in the freaking ATLANTIC coast conference but should be in some pacific based conference. Etc.

 

[Ale Xander]

It absolutely sucks beyond belief that football (and more precisely, football $$) is just destroying so much of what was good about college athletics. Football should have its own thing entirely, and then these conferences should once again be regional with traditional rivalries. Like, Syracuse football should be part of the overall football college league, but be back in the Big East for everything else. Creighton should be in some midwestern conference. Stanford shouldn't be in the freaking ATLANTIC coast conference but should be in some pacific based conference. Etc.

The Stanford/UCLA v UNC/FSU women’s soccer games are gonna be off the hook though
UNC @ Pauley (and Maples to a lesser degree) MBB even more so

But yeah

 

[OCST]

There's a writer, John Canzano, who covers the now-Pac 2 extensively. For some reason I got on his email list and I haven't unsubscribed because I find it interesting. Oregon St and Wash St did a great job in the legal battles over the breakup of the Pac 12. I don't have the wherewithal to go digging back but IIRC they may own what's left of the media contracts and whatever else is valuable out of the husk of the Pac 12. They are looking to keep the conference alive. Given the population growth in areas of the West Coast and interior West, markets and schools that would not have been attractive 40 years ago might be good candidates now.

 

[Awesome Fossum]

I understand they don't have football but adding them for everything but football adds a star basketball brand and all that entails for a conference that needs all the help it can get at this point.

It's not really outlandish since the Big 12 has been rumored to be interested at various times.

Zags would pair well with Air Force as a football-only member.

 

[Ale Xander]

One other bad thing that I didn;t realize until now about Oregon and Washington going east, is that the Civil War and Apple Cup had to get moved 2 1/2 months earlier since they are now OOC games.

Although Georgia Georgia Tech (and others) is OOC and still during Thanksgiving week.

 

[Humphrey]

One other bad thing that I didn;t realize until now about Oregon and Washington going east, is that the Civil War and Apple Cup had to get moved 2 1/2 months earlier since they are now OOC games.

Although Georgia Georgia Tech (and others) is OOC and still during Thanksgiving week.

...and Texas vs A&M is finally back!

 

[Awesome Fossum]

AAC supposedly targeting Air Force says college football co-commissioner ESPN:

https://www.espn.com/college-sports/story/_/id/41291626/air-force-emerges-serious-target-aac

 

[Awesome Fossum]

I like this take on the Pac 12's angle: cripple both the MWC (done) and the American (on deck) to make it the de facto 5th conference:

The strategy is clear: to kneecap its Group of 5 conferences in the Mountain West and the American, and thus make the Pac-12 the default choice for the G5 College Football Playoff bid (and perhaps more).

https://footballscoop.com/news/jeff-traylor-confirms-utsa-listening-to-pac-12-pitch

 

[Awesome Fossum]

To meet NCAA and CFP requirements, the league must reach eight full members, a reason that the Pac-12 — and/or its consulting firm Navigate — is in discussion with three other American Athletic Conference members: South Florida, Tulane and UTSA.

Memphis holds the proverbial cards, it seems. The school is the jewel of the American (but not the only one), a proud member since joining the league from Conference USA in 2013.

Its decision may impact the decision of the others, creating a cascading exit that would leave a gaping hole in the AAC. South Florida and Tulane are unlikely to leave without Memphis. And Memphis might not leave without them. This is a packaged deal or no deal at all.

“They may not want to go, but they don’t want the other guy to go without them,” someone involved in the negotiations said.

UTSA, in a different geographical and financial position, presents a different case.
Either way, three or four of them would create an eastern flank of the new Pac-12.

According to multiple people who have seen the Pac-12’s presentation, the league is…
• projecting a per-school distribution of $12-15 million — if they achieve in acquiring their top targets in the AAC.
• requiring at least a five-year grant-of-rights agreement (through 2030-31).
• presenting a base distribution model that includes a performance-based bonus concept.

https://sports.yahoo.com/go-west-the-next-wave-of-realignment-is-in-memphis-hands-135625431.html

 

[canderson]

Gonzaga to the Pac 12. Yes, Gonzaga.

 

[VORP Speed]

They should go get UConn now.

 

[jmanny24]

Gonzaga NOT finalized. One MW school accepted the P12 offer, Utah State

 

[Awesome Fossum]

AAC holds:

Memphis, Tulane and South Florida plan to announce their continued commitment to the American Athletic Conference, turning down serious interest from the Pac-12, sources told Yahoo Sports on Monday. UTSA, also courted by the Pac-12, will announce its commitment to the AAC as well.

https://sports.yahoo.com/sources-memphis-tulane-usf-and-utsa-to-remain-in-aac-after-pac-12-discussions-184152711.html

As mentioned above, Utah State jumping:

Utah State is set to agree to a deal to become the seventh member of the newly formed Pac-12, sources told ESPN.

https://www.espn.com/college-sports/story/_/id/41406647/sources-utah-st-set-become-7th-member-rebuilding-pac-12

Air Force sticking with MWC:

The Air Force Academy has committed to remaining in the Mountain West Conference, sources tell @YahooSports, signing or expected to soon sign a new grant-of-rights deal with financial incentives.

View: https://twitter.com/RossDellenger/status/1838298588520014063

 

[OCST]

Really should go get that Canadian school.

 

[8slim]

I'll admit that I don't understand what the PAC is doing now. Utah State? I get that it's a big school in a high population growth state. But it's not a brand and is it really adding value to a PAC media deal?

Seems like the new PAC is just going to be Mountain West+. Maybe it'll get a TV deal that falls somewhere between the current MW and the American? If so, why bother with all of this. Just do a reverse merger with the MW, rebrand, and call it a day.

 

[Mooch]

I'll admit that I don't understand what the PAC is doing now. Utah State? I get that it's a big school in a high population growth state. But it's not a brand and is it really adding value to a PAC media deal?

Seems like the new PAC is just going to be Mountain West+. Maybe it'll get a TV deal that falls somewhere between the current MW and the American? If so, why bother with all of this. Just do a reverse merger with the MW, rebrand, and call it a day.

Because Utah State is the domino that might get UNLV to leave as well: https://sports.yahoo.com/is-mwc-dissolution-coming-unlv-now-holds-keys-to-future-in-fight-between-pac-12-and-mountain-west-125447778.html

The Mountain West is on life support and if it dissolves, the 4 schools that jumped to the Pac 12 don't owe anything.