Realignment 2023: Whither the Pac12?

[Awesome Fossum]

Plan A was take the best of the MWC and AAC.

Plan B is to just take more from the MWC and leave enough damaged brands (Hawaii) out to make it pay off.

Plan C is probably the reverse merger.

The Mountain West is on life support and if it dissolves, the 4 schools that jumped to the Pac 12 don't owe anything.

Unless they take everyone, I have to think the MWC will run the same playbook the Pac 12 just ran. Reload from CUSA/FCS and bank the exit fees and remaining TV money.

 

[Mooch]

Plan A was take the best of the MWC and AAC.

Plan B is to just take more from the MWC and leave enough damaged brands (Hawaii) out to make it pay off.

Plan C is probably the reverse merger.



Unless they take everyone, I have to think the MWC will run the same playbook the Pac 12 just ran. Reload from CUSA/FCS and bank the exit fees and remaining TV money.

It's going to be very interesting. My sense is that when UNLV jumps, SJSU and either Nevada or New Mexico may as well. Air Force moves to the AAC with the other service academies and there's little interest in joining a conference with Nevada and Wyoming as the cornerstone schools. I think they're DOA.

 

[8slim]

Because Utah State is the domino that might get UNLV to leave as well: https://sports.yahoo.com/is-mwc-dissolution-coming-unlv-now-holds-keys-to-future-in-fight-between-pac-12-and-mountain-west-125447778.html

The Mountain West is on life support and if it dissolves, the 4 schools that jumped to the Pac 12 don't owe anything.

It's funny because the reason why the Mountain West exists was the over-expansion of the WAC in the late 90s.

Just seems like a lot of work to basically re-brand and kick out Wyoming and Hawaii.

 

[canderson]

Isn’t UNLV handcuffed to UN-Reno?

 

[Mooch]

It's funny because the reason why the Mountain West exists was the over-expansion of the WAC in the late 90s.

Just seems like a lot of work to basically re-brand and kick out Wyoming and Hawaii.

In favor of Oregon State and Washington State. Seems like a pretty large upgrade.

 

[Mooch]

Isn’t UNLV handcuffed to UN-Reno?

The Nevada Board of Regents is pretty split about all of that. Doesn't seem like there's anything close to unanimity on that front.

 

[8slim]

In favor of Oregon State and Washington State. Seems like a pretty large upgrade.

Is it? The PAC pitched those 4 AAC schools that they'd make $10-15 million/year with a new TV deal. Clearly those schools didn't buy it, and most folks in the industry think that's higher than anyone is going to pay for this new PAC.
Now they're adding Utah State? That's not going to help them reach that $10-15M figure at all. Nor is New Mexico or UNLV, etc.

Seems like we're headed to a place where New PAC makes a bit below the current AAC deal, which is a bit above the current MWC deal. So they could have just merged, rebranded, and negotiated a new deal when the MWC one expires in 2 years. Probably would have netted out in the same place.

Seems like this is all a big game of rearranging deck chairs.

 

[Mooch]

Is it? The PAC pitched those 4 AAC schools that they'd make $10-15 million/year with a new TV deal. Clearly those schools didn't buy it, and most folks in the industry think that's higher than anyone is going to pay for this new PAC.
Now they're adding Utah State? That's not going to help them reach that $10-15M figure at all. Nor is New Mexico or UNLV, etc.

Seems like we're headed to a place where New PAC makes a bit below the current AAC deal, which is a bit above the current MWC deal. So they could have just merged, rebranded, and negotiated a new deal when the MWC one expires in 2 years. Probably would have netted out in the same place.

Seems like this is all a big game of rearranging deck chairs.

I think the PAC 12 bidding war will be higher than most think due to the relative scarcity of college football product available mid-decade. Don't be shocked if it ends up at the $10M mark. I live in Atlanta, have contacts in the media space down here and I'm hearing that Turner might re-enter the conversation for the rights. ESPN will certainly be in the mix and the streamers can't be counted out. My prediction is that it will be MUCH higher than the existing MW deal.

 

[Awesome Fossum]

It's definitely a big game of rearranging deck chairs. But I think you're answering your own question. The worst case scenario here seems to be that they're going to be netting out in the same place from where they would have been anyway. This strategy might not pay off -- seems like it won't -- but it at least had some upside.

 

[bsj]

Still think the ACC's best long term solution is to bring in the entire PAC 12 that now exists and create a mega conference that includes a full fledged western division. It would provide long term stability and also save them a lot of headaches re east-west travel (only one cross country trip a year)

 

[8slim]

I think the PAC 12 bidding war will be higher than most think due to the relative scarcity of college football product available mid-decade. Don't be shocked if it ends up at the $10M mark. I live in Atlanta, have contacts in the media space down here and I'm hearing that Turner might re-enter the conversation for the rights. ESPN will certainly be in the mix and the streamers can't be counted out. My prediction is that it will be MUCH higher than the existing MW deal.

It'll be bigger than the current MW deal for sure, if only due to the general increase in rights and the competition among media entities that you speak of.

However, there's a cost component as well. The power conferences can expand nationwide because the increase in revenue offsets the increase in travel costs. If the new PAC expands more geographically that's going to cut into the increase in media money. And a $10M/year deal doesn't have much wiggle room on that front.

 

[8slim]

Still think the ACC's best long term solution is to bring in the entire PAC 12 that now exists and create a mega conference that includes a full fledged western division. It would provide long term stability and also save them a lot of headaches re east-west travel (only one cross country trip a year)

That was a viable plan when the old Pac 12 existed. With the current lineup? Ugh, no way. That's a HUGE loser for the ACC.

 

[OCST]

Seeing UConn rumored as football only Pac12 member on X.

 

[Awesome Fossum]

It'll be bigger than the current MW deal for sure, if only due to the general increase in rights and the competition among media entities that you speak of.

However, there's a cost component as well. The power conferences can expand nationwide because the increase in revenue offsets the increase in travel costs. If the new PAC expands more geographically that's going to cut into the increase in media money. And a $10M/year deal doesn't have much wiggle room on that front.

Maybe that's why they're jumping through hoops to get rid of Hawaii.

 

[8slim]

Maybe that's why they're jumping through hoops to get rid of Hawaii.

LOL. Well they're only a football member so it's a trip every 2/3 years. Not a huge deal.

Sending your field hockey team from New Orleans or Tampa to Corvallis, OR is a different story,

 

[Ale Xander]

LOL. Well they're only a football member so it's a trip every 2/3 years. Not a huge deal.

Sending your field hockey team from New Orleans or Tampa to Corvallis, OR is a different story,

Oregon State doesn’t have field hockey
But if you’re talking WCC or Rowing then yeah

 

[Awesome Fossum]

UNLV (and Air Force) staying put -- both the Pac 12 and MWC are still stuck on seven each:

Air Force and UNLV are expected to remain in the Mountain West Conference, sources confirmed to ESPN.

Both schools were incentivized to stay with significant financial packages made possible, in part, by the collective exit fees the conference's five departing members -- Boise State, Colorado State, Fresno State, San Diego State and Utah State -- will be responsible for paying to leave for the Pac-12. Each school is expected to pay roughly $18 million to depart.

https://www.espn.com/college-sports/story/_/id/41448219/sources-unlv-air-force-remain-mwc-financial-incentives

 

[OCST]

From the newsletter of this guy John Canzano who I mentioned upthread:

Decide for yourself what lengths you’d go to for survival when faced with an existential crisis. The Mountain West decided to throw a bag of cash at UNLV and Air Force to save itself.

The two schools reportedly made a commitment to the Mountain West late on Wednesday night. The seven remaining MW schools are expected to sign a binding agreement on Thursday. I don’t blame anyone who wants to wait to see it in writing. But that’s where things sit.

Give Gloria Nevarez credit for her quick thinking. A lot of people would have seen all that smoke billowing down the hallways of her burning conference and hustled to the nearest fire exit. Instead, the MW commissioner crawled to her desk, found the keys to a forklift, and then used it to haul a pallet stacked with $100 bills back into the place, smothering the flames with Benjamins.

The Pac-12’s next move?...

What's crazy about this whole thing is the way that relatively insignificant schools like AF and Vegas can end up being kingmakers, just by being pawns, in the right/wrong place at the right/wrong time. Here, it's the eight-school requirement that makes these schools the belles of the ball, as long as they pinky-swear to work together. Since the geographic West seems to be a few desirable schools short of what it takes to make two viable conferences, they've realized they can write their own ticket and leave the Big Pac 12 scrambling to make numbers, either with schools even less desirable - Wyoming, Hawaii - or outside of the geography - Memphis - or both (UTSA?)

A leverage ploy that, say, UConn and BC could have done 15 years ago, if they didn't hate each other.

edit: fixed mistake

 

[OCST]

UNLV (and Air Force) staying put -- both the Pac 12 and MWC are still stuck on seven each:



https://www.espn.com/college-sports/story/_/id/41448219/sources-unlv-air-force-remain-mwc-financial-incentives

Maybe they should just merge.

Seriously.

 

[Awesome Fossum]

Maybe they should just merge.

Seriously.

At this point, it almost feels like the most likely outcome.

 

[Humphrey]

Seeing UConn rumored as football only Pac12 member on X.

UConn for football only and Gonzaga for everything else would make a lot more sense than some of these other scenarios. One team that only plays on weekends. Spend a week out there twice and you cover 4 games, which in an 8 team league should be all the road games you have in a given season.

 

[Senator Donut]

From the newsletter of this guy John Canzano who I mentioned upthread:



What's crazy about this whole thing is the way that relatively insignificant schools like AF and Vegas can end up being kingmakers, just by being pawns, in the right/wrong place at the right/wrong time. Here, it's the eight-school requirement that makes these schools the belles of the ball, as long as they pinky-swear to work together. Since the geographic West seems to be a few desirable schools short of what it takes to make two viable conferences, they've realized they can write their own ticket and leave the Big Pac 12 scrambling to make numbers, either with schools even less desirable - Wyoming, Hawaii - or outside of the geography - Memphis - or both (UTSA?)

A leverage ploy that, say, UConn and BC could have done 15 years ago, if they didn't hate each other.

edit: fixed mistake

I remember reading that original post and learning how the Pac-2 deftly bided its time while preserving its contracts and NCAA tournament revenue. It seemed like there were about to execute the final stage of their master plan, but instead ended up on the precipice of disaster. It's stunning to me that they added the four most desirable MWC teams without locking up the moves needed to get to eight members. Instead of a reverse merger, the Pac-12 committed $55 million to get the four MWC teams then promptly sued not to pay it. Meanwhile the MWC unexpectedly played its strongest hand and gave the lion's share of those exit fees (plus the amount owed by the departing schools) to secure their membership.

 

[8slim]

Maybe they should just merge.

Seriously.

The best-of-the-rest western teams reallllly seem to hate the lower-tier-of-the-generally-mediocre western teams. MWC exists because the "top" 8 schools of the WAC didn't like being associated with the rest of the WAC. Now the new PAC is made up of the top teams from the MWC who didn't like being associated with the rest of the MWC.

It's all pretty silly.

 

[OCST]

I remember reading that original post and learning how the Pac-2 deftly bided its time while preserving its contracts and NCAA tournament revenue. It seemed like there were about to execute the final stage of their master plan, but instead ended up on the precipice of disaster. It's stunning to me that they added the four most desirable MWC teams without locking up the moves needed to get to eight members. Instead of a reverse merger, the Pac-12 committed $55 million to get the four MWC teams then promptly sued not to pay it. Meanwhile the MWC unexpectedly played its strongest hand and gave the lion's share of those exit fees (plus the amount owed by the departing schools) to secure their membership.

Really could be a Harvard Business School case study, in getting it almost spectacularly right,but botching it even more spectacularly.

The math from 6 to 8 ain't that hard. I'm agnostic on whether they could have lived with a couple of the weaker sisters, just to make up the numbers; or both Nevada schools; or gone raiding to get Cal and Stanford back, as some have speculated; or SOMETHING.

But it's just such a huge unforced error for the Beavs and Cougs, to realize that the rest of the Pac 12 left the IP, contracts etc. lying around, grab them, start to exploit them - and then fuck up 2 + ____ = 8.

 

[8slim]

Really could be a Harvard Business School case study, in getting it almost spectacularly right,but botching it even more spectacularly.

The math from 6 to 8 ain't that hard. I'm agnostic on whether they could have lived with a couple of the weaker sisters, just to make up the numbers; or both Nevada schools; or gone raiding to get Cal and Stanford back, as some have speculated; or SOMETHING.

But it's just such a huge unforced error for the Beavs and Cougs, to realize that the rest of the Pac 12 left the IP, contracts etc. lying around, grab them, start to exploit them - and then fuck up 2 + ____ = 8.

Obviously, the PAC is going to add someone to get to 8, though. Some school in CUSA or Sun Belt or FCS will join eventually.

The big mistake might have been in not waiting to more fully flesh out a TV deal and secure the AAC schools they targeted. Once the AAC schools passed on there really weren't any particularly attractive options left. Although I'm skeptical it would have made financial sense for the AAC school to join anyway -- I can't see a TV deal being enough to make all the additional travel costs worth it.

There was less than zero chance of luring Stanford and Cal. They're going to make multiple times the TV money in the ACC, even at a reduced share, than they'd ever make in a new PAC. Plus those schools aren't giving up an association with Duke, UNC, UVA, etc. for a band of public state schools.

 

[Awesome Fossum]

From an interview with the Memphis AD:

When we talk about the decision that was made by the University of Memphis to not join the PAC, that was not a binary decision. That was not a "no, we're not ever going anywhere." That was based on the offer that was presented to us that we're not taking that offer because we don't think less of ourselves.

Part of the deal was that two of the schools, and you can figure who those were, would get to keep all of the College Football Playoff distribution money.

If we're getting about $9 million right now from the American, and estimated between the consultants and our folks in house, it was going to cost about $2.5 million [in added travel costs]. So to be whole, that's $11.5 million. And folks are speculating on the low end that this deal's around $12 million. That means we net a positive $500,000 and we still owe $22.5 [to the American in estimated exit fees].

https://www.commercialappeal.com/videos/sports/college/memphis-tigers/2024/09/26/memphis-ad-ed-scott-pac-12-conference/75403472007/

 

[Awesome Fossum]

Texas State officials have received a verbal offer to join the Mountain West, sources told ESPN on Saturday.

A decision is expected in the upcoming days as talks continue. The Pac-12 has also expressed interest, but that has yet to yield an offer, sources said.

https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/41498445/sources-texas-state-gets-offer-join-mountain-west

 

[Mooch]

Looks like Gonzaga will indeed join the Pac 12 as a basketball member.

https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/41550151/gonzaga-join-pac-12-basketball-school-sources-say

 

[wibi]

Gonzaga just made the formal announcement. PAC-12 here we come baby

 

[Mooch]

Will be interesting to see if the PAC 12 makes another push for Memphis. Word is that they may also go after St Mary's and Grand Canyon. That would be a POWERHOUSE basketball conference.

 

[Lose Remerswaal]

Will be interesting to see if the PAC 12 makes another push for Memphis. Word is that they may also go after St Mary's and Grand Canyon. That would be a POWERHOUSE basketball conference.

I wonder if GCU's success is sustainable

 

[Mooch]

I wonder if GCU's success is sustainable

Seems like Drew has built something special in AZ. And they just flipped a top 100 kid (Yeanay) from ASU who'll play this year.

 

[Ale Xander]

Basketball-only makes a lot more sense than every non-football sport but guess that’s not possible

 

[canderson]

I wonder if GCU's success is sustainable

Don’t get me started on that BS

 

[Awesome Fossum]

UTEP to MWC.

https://themw.com/news/2024/10/01/mountain-west-officially-welcomes-utep-into-the-conference/

That leaves the MWC one short -- they've had conversations with Texas State, but it seems like they might get the Pac 12 offer. Apparently they've also talked to Tarleton State. Have to think NMSU's going to be desperate to get that spot.

CUSA would be down to nine members and would not necessarily need to add another school. Have to wonder if Stephen F Austin is getting antsy to follow Sam Houston.