So, that makes it even smarter. If he’s still productive in 2-3 years, you have a nice asset to trade. If he’s not productive, you won’t have to offer as much prospect value to unload him. Either way, better for Dodgers.
‘Ready to deliver’ – The 2025 Offseason News (& rumors?) Thread
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That seems like a loophole if teams can get players willing to make most of their deal a signing bonus. Shrug
I thought so, thanks for this! Seems like Singing Bonuses and Deferred money are the best ways to circumvent the luxury tax rules. Doubtful the Players' Association will be very open to making any changes to it either.
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Snell to the <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Dodgers?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc^tfw">#Dodgers</a> also shake’s up the Sasaki market as they already have 7 good starters<br><br>Sasaki does have the same agent that Kodai Senga has so maybe the Mets have an advantage <br><br>For now I’d say the 3 front runners (w/o LAD) to land Sasaki are the <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Mets?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc^tfw">#Mets</a>, <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/RedSox?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc^tfw">#RedSox</a>, <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Yankees?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc^tfw">#Yankees</a> <a href="https://t.co/NrkaDDMhp2">pic.twitter.com/NrkaDDMhp2</a></p>— DJMets33 (@DJMets33) <a href="View: https://twitter.com/DJMets33/status/1861636974571843866?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
">November 27, 2024</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
">November 27, 2024</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
I never bought the "Sasaki to LA is a done deal" hype, but I don't think that follows. I think if the Dodgers got Sasaki they could easily find another home for one of the starters they have under contract.
It is too soon to tell. I do think they will make a couple moves. I just don't think they will be any mega deals. It will be interesting to see what the Red Sox plan really is once the big names are off the board.
For me, it’s the opposite. Mookie is awesome. He deserves an ownership group that is willing to go the extra mile for their fans. Good for him.
I agree with this.
I don't think Snell was our top choice, anyhow, so I'm ok with taking a competitor out of the run for Fried (although, it's LAD so who knows). I think Crochet is further down their wish list, but if Fried signs elsewhere, Crochet's cost in terms of prospects goes up.
I’m very skeptical with Fried being a main target. He doesn’t really do the things they preach and they would absolutely have to juggle the defense. A rotation lead by Fried, Houck, Bello, better be elite in the infield.
Plus… this tweet stinks of Boras bullshit. “The Sox need a lefty, I’ve got one they need and if they don’t sign him it’s a disappointment!”
View: https://twitter.com/jonheyman/status/1861623653198106880?s=46
So the Dodgers rotation is
Glasnow - xFIP 2.68
Yamamoto - xFIP 2.86
Snell - xFIP 3.01
Ohtani xFIP 3.58 ('23), 2.65 ('22)
Stone - xFIP 4.02
God knows if it will ever be healthy at the same time, but that is about as good a top 4 in a rotation as I can remember.
Glasnow - xFIP 2.68
Yamamoto - xFIP 2.86
Snell - xFIP 3.01
Ohtani xFIP 3.58 ('23), 2.65 ('22)
Stone - xFIP 4.02
God knows if it will ever be healthy at the same time, but that is about as good a top 4 in a rotation as I can remember.
Don't forget that Tony Gonsolin and Dustin May are returning from injury as well. That's two more quality guys with questionable health track records. From the seven of them, they should be able to cobble together a solid rotation even if they're not all healthy at the same time.
Year after year, the Dodgers have clearly shown that they don’t think it’s possible to have too much pitching, continuing to add, and not worrying about who might be displaced from a theoretical “everyone is healthy” rotation.
Not sure Snell was ever truly an option, given his stated desire on multiple occasions to remain on the west coast. And Kikuchi is exactly the type of pitcher for which a team should set a "never exceed" budget for. But the team really does need to get one of its targeted pitchers, or the statements by Kennedy and Breslow will make them look absolutely silly.
Tons of player movement happens in the first day of free agency in the NBA/NHL/NFL as those are salary capped leagues, and NBA max salaries are fixed. So the big names move right away while the teams still have cap space. No such incentive exists in MLB.
Not sure "fixing" the offseason is high on either the league's or the players' priority lists.
Tons of player movement happens in the first day of free agency in the NBA/NHL/NFL as those are salary capped leagues, and NBA max salaries are fixed. So the big names move right away while the teams still have cap space. No such incentive exists in MLB.
Whatever. Good for Snell and LA. This isn't the guy we need to freak out about.
Hardly matters, CA is such a low tax state. Not like Mass. at all.
Not that anyone seemed to truly want Snell, but I think the idea of being in on everyone, while generating lots of headlines and tweets, isn’t necessarily a great thing- sometimes it’s better to have a bit more focus. The last few Sox offseason have shown the team supposedly interested in and talking to everyone, but not aggressive or focused brought to do much of anything. Hopefully this year is different, and of course, who knows where any of the rumors are even coming from. There’s value in agents hyping up the Sox interest for a variety of reasons.
I don't think they're truly "in" on as many players as gets reported. Those kinds of reports really only benefit the players that they are about, so clearly most of those reports come from them and their agents. All it takes is one conversation between a representative of the player and a representative of the team for there to be reporting of talks between the teams. For all we know, those conversations are short and to the point and there will be no follow-up (no interest from one side or the other or both) but everyone gets to say "we talked to X."
It's the reports of multiple calls or meetings (not multiple reports of the same call/meeting) that are worth paying attention to. Otherwise, it's just fodder for reporters to get clicks and players to (hopefully for them) gain some leverage.
I don't think there's any risk of lost focus. There are only a handful of top tier free agents, and there are more than enough hours in the day to make serious inquiries into all of them. If anything, over indexing on one or two particular targets is more likely to lead to signing no-one, given that each of these free agents will have multiple suitors.
It's hard to know how seriously the Sox pursed Snell (as noted, agents have a fiduciary duty to exaggerate league-wide interest in their clients), but it would have been GM malpractice to at least not check in to see what it would take (if anything) to make him look at Boston.
I really don't care about how it looks in the media. All this talk about Henry and the Sox being cheap, etc., is neither here nor there.
And the case for doing little given the talent coming up - and the current rotation which is probably better than most think - is there to be made.
But if you "check-in" on all of these guys again and come away with little it will not be a good look.
Atlanta got by with Orlando Arcia, who isn’t a particularly good shortstop anymore. The gap between Austin Riley and Rafael Devers may be pretty big, but Devers is quite good at coming in on soft grounders (better than Riley, actually, in 2024). Fried gives up a ton of those.
IDK, there may be a few more singles here and there, but the important thing is that he limits hard contact with the very best of them. (2nd lowest Barrel% allowed in MLB over 2021-24).
A few weeks ago I posted about pitchers that give up the fewest deep fly balls to left, which is a prime way to do damage in Fenway. Fried was among the best at preventing them. I think he’d be great here.
The whiff rate went down a bit last year, but Fried still misses bats. Not like he’s a contact pitcher like Martin Pérez, but he may be more of a command/soft contact guy in five years.
Is an OF of Teoscar, Duran, Anthony actually better in any way than an OF of Anthony, Duran, Abreu? I get the RHH situation but I do expect Abreu 1- to improve against LHP going forward and 2- if he's still platooned, figure in Refsnyder's advantage against LHH and remove that from Abreu. I'm not sure if it is.
Given that Kikuchi's Houston success was mostly driven by increased slider usage, I figured he might be one to thrive under the Bailey method. But not at that price, or anywhere near it.
I guess the thinking would be Teoscar allows you to deal Abreu for Crochet. But you ask a good question.
And they’re a final line of defense against the MFY winning it all. We need them on that wall.
I get that... but I'd just rather spend the cash on Fried.
IF the Sox get Soto, then there's no question that a Soto, Duran, Anthony outfield is better than an Anthony, Duran, Abreu outfield and definitely would be interested then in using Abreu as leverage to get Crochet. I just see Hernandez as a likely regression candidate- although I have for a few seasons and he's proven me wrong.
I'm in full agreement. Soto is a transcendent offensive player and should be pursued hard, but if they don't sign him, pivot fully to pitching. Worth noting that the Sox had the 4th best OPS+ in the AL last year, despite production from second base of .532 OPS, worst in all of baseball. A healthy Casas, Yoshida, and Story paired with a functional second baseman will be a very good offense. The team blew 31 saves. Fix the bullpen, add a top starter, and they will be competing for the AL East next year.
As for trades, the whole point of these miserable years was to acquire and develop young players. It makes no sense to now move them out to fill offensive spots with older more expensive players who are not obvious upgrades.
I can't remember who it was but someone posted something similar on Twitter:
March -- Boy the Dodgers have so many great starters, how are they going to fit them into their rotation?
October -- If the Dodgers can get four strong innings from Joe Kelly, they might be able to extend the NLDS.
While the bullpen needs to be fixed (or at least they should plan on not all getting hurt at the same damn time), I think "blown saves" is about on par with batting average and RBI in terms of useful information. The guy that comes in with the bases loaded and none out in the 6th and gives up the tying run on a sac fly and then strikes out the next 2 guys gets a blown save, just as the guy who comes in to protect a 1-run lead and gives up the 2-run HR in the bottom of the 9th. The two appearances aren't remotely similar in terms of trying to assess an individual's performance --- we'd say the first guy was pretty good & the second guy sucked -- or a team's bullpen.
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Red Sox' offensive rankings in 2024:
Runs (751): #9 overall, #3 AL
Total Bases (2,357): #4 overall, #3 AL
SB (144): #7 overall, #3 AL
OBP (.319): #8 overall, #3 AL
OPS (.741): #8 overall, #4 AL
OPS+ (104): #9 overall, 4 AL
And this, as was mentioned, with a complete black hole at 2b and very little out of Casas (injury). Offensive production really wasn't the problem last year on the whole. Obviously at times, yes, but that's true for everyone. They're a top quartile offense. Not *elite*, but pretty darned good. I'd expect more from Story, Casas, and 2b. Adding Soto would obviously help a lot, but even without him, they've got offense.
Pitching, on the other hand, is a major problem.
ERA (4.04): #17 overall, #9 AL
Runs (4.61): #23 overall, #12 AL - speaks more to their bad defense
WHIP (1.26): #17 overall, #10 AL
OPS (.707): #17 overall, #10 AL
BABIP (.289): #16 overall, #11 AL
Runs (751): #9 overall, #3 AL
Total Bases (2,357): #4 overall, #3 AL
SB (144): #7 overall, #3 AL
OBP (.319): #8 overall, #3 AL
OPS (.741): #8 overall, #4 AL
OPS+ (104): #9 overall, 4 AL
And this, as was mentioned, with a complete black hole at 2b and very little out of Casas (injury). Offensive production really wasn't the problem last year on the whole. Obviously at times, yes, but that's true for everyone. They're a top quartile offense. Not *elite*, but pretty darned good. I'd expect more from Story, Casas, and 2b. Adding Soto would obviously help a lot, but even without him, they've got offense.
Pitching, on the other hand, is a major problem.
ERA (4.04): #17 overall, #9 AL
Runs (4.61): #23 overall, #12 AL - speaks more to their bad defense
WHIP (1.26): #17 overall, #10 AL
OPS (.707): #17 overall, #10 AL
BABIP (.289): #16 overall, #11 AL
A good way to fix the pen, though, is with better starters who go deeper in games. IIRC, the pen was pretty good early in the year when the mantra was for the starters to go six.
This is pretty much where I'm at (or at least hopeful of). I'd be fine with a bunch of mid tier additions (via trade and FA). I would not be fine with more bargain basement, stop gap, only give out one year deals thrift store shopping.
They need to see the Soto situation through, obviously. I don't think he's coming here, but if there are better than Lloyd Christmas odds that Soto ends up in Boston, you see that through because he is the type of talent that if you can get him, you re-arrange literally your entire organization and prior "plan" over. You then go from a point of "ok, so we have 3 and 4 in our line up set for the next 10 seasons, what do we put around them" and make moves accordingly.
Based on (my opinion) the extremely high likelihood Soto ends up with one of the NY teams, and Henry's well known stance on signing pitchers over 30 to long term deals - and looking at Snell absolutely blow through any and all projections of what he would receive, I think there is basically no chance of Fried or Burnes happening.
I just hope this isn't a year where they also miss out on Eovaldi, Bassitt, Eflin and Senga to end up with Corey Kluber. (Or miss out on Nola, Lugo, Imanaga, Snell, Montgomery, and Gray to end up with Giolito).
Ah, of course. Sorry.
BRef has them at 104, which is just barely above average. There's a lot of teams clumped around 100 fwiw.
This has bitten the Sox in the ass the last two years. The starters are pretty damn good for the first two months and the bullpen is humming along. The next two months, the starters begin faltering (either because of fatigue or injury) and the bullpen is called upon more. The bullpen holds it together through most of June and July but implodes in August rendering September moot.
You get a couple of front-of-the-rotation starters and the bullpen will be fine in the latter part of the year.
Giolito and Whitlock combining for only 4 starts really screwed them, but you also have to remember that neither of those two years featured starters in AAA that were ready to contribute mid-season. Having Criswell, Fitts, Priester and maybe Dobbins available to step up and provide mlb-quality starts makes a huge difference in terms of resiliency.
According to bb.ref for the 2024 season, MLB starters won 1424 games, lost 1584 while averaging 5.2 IP, 85 pitches per game.
That's a fair take, for sure, and I understand it.
I do wish there was something that could be done about all the biggest names seemingly conglomerating into 3 or 4 teams, but like someone in another place I frequent said, "There's not a lot that can be done about 26 billionaires pretending they are poor".
As for the bullpen.... I'm thinking we do need to add a closer and use Hendriks,Whitlock, etc to set up. Whatever the rest is is a open question. I don't know why but I'm feeling Winkowski isn't going to be a Red Sox too much longer. I suspect we could see some trades for BP depth, you know, kind of like trading for a John Shreiber.
The Sox starters (if my info is correct) averaged 5.18 innings per start, ranking 9th in baseball. I personally like the blown save stat because it shows how many games were actually lost but even bullpen era by team, we were 7th from the bottom. By any measure, our bullpen needs a massive amount of work.