Re-Thinking The Red Sox Approach to Long Term Contracts

[EricFeczko]

I know what people mean when they say the Red Sox got lucky in 2013, but let's also remember that that over a 162 game season this team had the best record in all of baseball.   And it's not like they didn't have any injuries either.  Their best pitcher (Buchholz) was on the shelf for about half the season, their best player period (Pedroia) was playing with a broken thumb the entire season and probably only at about 80% at best, and they lost almost the entire back end of their bullpen (Bailey, Hanrahan and Miller) to season ending injuries.  Yes they did have good fortune in other areas, but I'd argue that that's the result of the smart way they were built (deep depth).  The 2013 Red Sox were good - damn good.  And the 2014 Red Sox, not so much. 
 
So how did we go from having a World Championship team, with young budding stars all throughout the system, and all sorts of payroll flexibility in both the short term and the long term - and wind up a few months later where we are today - a 20-26 healthy yet moribund team that is looking up at the Yankees in first place - who themselves are dealing with a ton of injuries?  The only answer I can think of is that we didn't do enough in the free agent market in the off-season.  And there were some damn good free agents available.  Guys like Ellsbury, Drew, McCann, Choo, and Tanaka.

Or its because the players we already had were unable to replicate their prior success.
Offensively, the problems on this team are LF/CF/RF/3B/C/subs; of these, only CF, C, and one sub has been replaced. Here's what the 2013-version of the non-replaced players did:

Victorino - 532 AB: .294/.351/.451, 119 wRC+
Nava - 536 AB: .303/.385/.455, 128 wRC+
Middlebrooks - 374 AB: .227/.271/.425, 84 wRC+
Gomes - 366 AB: .247/.344/.426, 109 wRC+
Carp - 243 AB: .296/.362/.563, 139 wRC+
Nava and Victorino were 3rd and 4th on this team in terms of offensive output last year. Take them away, and our offense would have looked much worse.
Out of these 5, only gomes has been at the same level this year. Nava, Victorino, Middlebrooks, and Carp have either played much much worse, or been hurt (leading to far weaker starters). Even Ortiz is off to a weaker start than last year.
 
Pitching-wise, we can see a similar story:

Buchholz, 16 GS, 1.74 ERA/2.74 FIP
Doubront, 27 GS, 4.32 ERA/3.78 FIP
Peavy, 23 GS (10 for sox), 4.17 (4.04) ERA, 3.71 (3.96) FIP

All three of these pitchers have been substantially worse this season by an entire run, so far.

The "smart" depth story was a narrative last year, which may be unrelated to why the Red Sox actually won the 2013 WS. The same players that led to success in 2013, have also led to problems in 2014. In hindsight, one could say that we should have signed a LF like Choo, but that is a) a short-sighted statement as Choo would likely be albatross 3 years into the contract, and b) its hindsight.

As it so happens, several of the starters you mention were extremely questionable as replacements. Even in hindsight, only Choo and Tanaka have been productive. You allude to the MFY current success, and imply that the MFY are successful this year because of free agent splashes. However, the MFY have benefited less from the big market free-agents than you think. The reason they have done well so far has as much to do with Yangervis Solarte, Brett Gardner, and Ichiro Suzuki having ridiculous production to start the season. Of the big-name free agents signed by the MFY (McCann, Tanaka, Beltran, Ellsbury), only Tanaka has been productive.
 
Of course, Ervin Santana and Scott Kazmir have been more productive combined than Tanaka, and they could've signed both of them combined for less than what it took to sign Tanaka. Then again, that's hindsight for ya.


EDIT: I forgot about Ells. I must've blanked that out of my mind or something.
 

 

[Bone Chips]

Or its because the players we already had were unable to replicate their prior success.
Offensively, the problems on this team are LF/CF/RF/3B/C/subs; of these, only CF, C, and one sub has been replaced. Here's what the 2013-version of the non-replaced players did:

Victorino - 532 AB: .294/.351/.451, 119 wRC+
Nava - 536 AB: .303/.385/.455, 128 wRC+
Middlebrooks - 374 AB: .227/.271/.425, 84 wRC+
Gomes - 366 AB: .247/.344/.426, 109 wRC+
Carp - 243 AB: .296/.362/.563, 139 wRC+
Nava and Victorino were 3rd and 4th on this team in terms of offensive output last year. Take them away, and our offense would have looked much worse.

When I think of the difference between the 2014 Sox and the 2013 version, the first thing that comes to my mind isn't the drop in performance by Victorino, Nava, Middlebrooks and Carp.  I think of losing Ellsbury and his 5.8 WAR and replacing him the JBJ and his 0.2 WAR.  I think of losing Stephen Drew (3.2 WAR) and essentially replacing him with Will Middlebrooks (-0.2 WAR).  I even think of replacing Salty and his 2.9 WAR with AJP and his 0.2 WAR.  You took a World Championship team and replaced everyone up the middle - and in my opinion it is these replacements that are at the core of the drop in performance this year.  Once again, I don't blame them for trying it, but I think a lot of their moves were driven by an exaggerated fear of longterm, expensive contracts that is hopefully being moderated going foward.

 

[ivanvamp]

Well, to be fair, JBJ, Middlebrooks, and AJP have only played about 28% of the season, so comparing their WAR numbers at this point to the finished WAR numbers of the guys they replaced is hardly fair.
 
But the point is, the replacements have been pretty bad and it's clearly impacting the team hugely.
 
That said, they'd still be ok if Buchholz wouldn't stop sucking.

 

[EricFeczko]

When I think of the difference between the 2014 Sox and the 2013 version, the first thing that comes to my mind isn't the drop in performance by Victorino, Nava, Middlebrooks and Carp.  I think of losing Ellsbury and his 5.8 WAR and replacing him the JBJ and his 0.2 WAR.  I think of losing Stephen Drew (3.2 WAR) and essentially replacing him with Will Middlebrooks (-0.2 WAR).  I even think of replacing Salty and his 2.9 WAR with AJP and his 0.2 WAR.  You took a World Championship team and replaced everyone up the middle - and in my opinion it is these replacements that are at the core of the drop in performance this year.  Once again, I don't blame them for trying it, but I think a lot of their moves were driven by an exaggerated fear of longterm, expensive contracts that is hopefully being moderated going foward.

Just to clarify, you are using b-ref WAR numbers, correct? My problem here is that this narrative is only part of the story. Only half of the players up the middle have been performing poorly, so this doesn't explain the poor performance by the sox entirely; we can do this by WAR or by rate stats, but the stark contrast is the same for the regulars.

Shane Victorino also had 5.8 bWAR last year; he's had 0.4 bWAR this year.
Daniel Nava was worth 2.9 bWAR last year; he's had -0.2 bWAR this year.
Mike Carp was worth 1.2 bWAR last year; he's had -0.2 bWAR this year.
 
Middlebrooks was the primary 3B last year, not Xander. Xander was the replacement for Drew, who is now the replacement for middlebrooks. Apart from that false equivalency, we've had less output from the 2013 guys, than from the replacements this year.

The biggest replacements we've had this year are AJP, Xander, and JBJ. Xander is on pace for producing what we had last year at shortstop (or an upgrade over third-base), AJP is likely on pace to produce about half as much as Salty, while JBJ is on pace to produce a sixth of what we had in CF. The stable players from last year have been just as bad, if not worse. Victorino is on pace to produce a sixth of his prior production, I can't calculate Nava's pace because it's at 0, and ditto for Carp.

Relative to the rest of the league, we have no production in the corner outfield spots or third-base. Signing Drew addresses the third base problem, but we remain dead last in outfield production.



 

 

[HriniakPosterChild]

Obviously lots of Japanese pitchers will turn out to be durable enough over the long haul, but I'm not sure how a team is supposed to pin down the arm-injury risk. My hunch is that the success of Darvish and Tanaka might get them back into the market. Hell, don't they buy insurance on these contracts anyway?

 
And Hisashi Iwakuma has been outstanding for Seattle.
 
I have heard that it's no longer possible to insure pitchers for the back end of a long-term deal.

 

[Plympton91]

People are still insisting on talking about Nava as if he's been playing left field half the time like last year.

The Red Sox gave Nava 50 at bats and then replaced him with Grady Sizemore, who has been terrible.

Victorino being hurt and less productive was entirely predictable, as was JBJs failure to hit at all. Yet, the only move they made to improve the depth in CF and RF was to sign a guy who hadn't played in 2 years and hadn't played well in 4 years. All while, as bone chips says, letting Ellsbury walk to make room for JBJ, thereby exposing the gaping lack of depth not only in CF but also in RF.

 

[WenZink]

FYI, Ellsbury is hitting 259 / 330 / 371.

With a .309 wOBA and a 91 wRC+ for Ellsbury over almost a 1/3rd of the season.  That's pretty much what Carl Crawford put up for the Red Sox during parts of two seasons.  And remember this year is one of the "good" years for Ellsbury who turns 31 in a few months, but is on the books past his mid-30s.
 
As bad as the suck is right now, it's nothing compared to the 2012 season where the Sox were losing and they were paying Carl Crawford $21 mil.  The 2014 version of CC is now playing in the Bronx.
 
As for AJP, he's the living, breathing exemplar of "Bridge Year."  We know it and he knows it.  He's just collecting a paycheck.  Take the money and run, or in AJ's case, walk.

 

[WenZink]

nm

 

[Plympton91]

 
As for AJP, he's the living, breathing exemplar of "Bridge Year."  We know it and he knows it.  He's just collecting a paycheck.  Take the money and run, or in AJ's case, walk.

 
AJ doesn't walk, though.

 

[WenZink]

 
AJ doesn't walk, though.

 
Only to the bank.

 

[Hee Sox Choi]

 
Only to the bank.

 
And to 2nd base.

 

[EricFeczko]

People are still insisting on talking about Nava as if he's been playing left field half the time like last year.

The Red Sox gave Nava 50 at bats and then replaced him with Grady Sizemore, who has been terrible.

Victorino being hurt and less productive was entirely predictable, as was JBJs failure to hit at all. Yet, the only move they made to improve the depth in CF and RF was to sign a guy who hadn't played in 2 years and hadn't played well in 4 years. All while, as bone chips says, letting Ellsbury walk to make room for JBJ, thereby exposing the gaping lack of depth not only in CF but also in RF.

The Ellsbury signing would have brought the Sox too close to the luxury tax, and limited flexibility.
If you really want to complain about what the Red Sox should have done in the offseason, there were better alternatives than signing Ellsbury. For example, trading WMB for Peter Bourojos, signing Drew for 3 years, and shifting Bogaerts over to third base. This would give you depth in CF, defense on the left side of the infield, and remove potential blocks for betts/cecchini.
Unfortunately, you'd basically be giving up on WMB and Xander at SS, but its definitely better than paying 7/153 for an aging CF.
 

 

[Stitch01]

Yeah the way the season has played out so far has made letting Ellsbury go seem like a better move, not a worse one.

EDIT: I don't think Cherington and company deserve a pass for the disaster on the field right now, but at least by not locking old guys up long term for big money screwing the pooch in the 13-14 offseason (if things continue as is) didn't do any harm for the future.