RD2/#62 - Brady's Heir to the Throne

[Super Nomario]

Definitely getting the vibe they wanted to go out and find someone that fit the Brady mold as much as possible, and they'd have time to shape him over the next couple years before he has to see the field. Seems to me they wanted to secure that earlier than later. If this guy was watching video of Brady over and over and molding his game on him, it makes all the sense in the world. Quick release certainly fits the system. High IQ and football awareness helps. If Belichick and Co felt that highly about him as a player, this was a good pick.
 
I'm curious about his throwing style. Seems to be a very quick release once the decision is made, but I can't help but feel he's short arming the ball. I suppose the numbers speak for themselves, but curious if that could have a physical impact in the longterm. I'm not educated enough about QB arm mechanics to say much beyond that, but am certainly curious. To me it also says a lot about where Belichick feels the game is going in terms of speed over strength.

I think it's a footwork thing more than short-arming. He's rarely under center so he's not taking traditional drops, and he doesn't step into his throws. Matt Waldman says this is a common issue for spread QBs that line up in the shotgun all the time. The flip side of this is that he showed OK arm strength even with this hole in his game; if he fixes it and steps into his throws better, he might be a guy whose arm strength improves at the NFL level.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

 
Doing it once I understand, even though I'm not on board with JG at the moment. Doing it multiple times in succession is a waste.

So what do you do if its clear JG isn't the guy.....give up? One thing BB is doing by making this pick is minimizing the risk that we enter 2017 or 2018 without an NFL caliber starting QB due to having other options aside from JG over the next 2-3 years.

 

[Eck'sSneakyCheese]

So what do you do if its clear JG isn't the guy.....give up? One thing BB is doing by making this pick is minimizing the risk that we enter 2017 or 2018 without an NFL caliber starting QB due to having other options aside from JG over the next 2-3 years.

 
Is that going to be crystal clear by next year?

 

[Dollar]

 
Doing it once I understand, even though I'm not on board with JG at the moment. Doing it multiple times in succession is a waste.

 
What are the "multiple times in succession"?  The Pats took Mallett in 2011 and in return have had three seasons (and possibly four) of a low-cost backup at the single most important position in the game.  This pick gives them a year to develop JG to be Mallett's replacement, then either groom him into being Brady's successor, trade him to a team with a need, or just let him be the next insurance policy after Mallett leaves.  It's not like Mallett was picked last year... using a late 2nd round/3rd round pick every four years to secure the backup QB position is not an absurd waste of resources, especially seeing what veteran backups are getting in the free agent market.
 
Edit:  Here is this year's NFL free agent class at QB:
 

 
 

1. Michael Vick (Signed one-year, $5M deal with NYJ)
2. Mark Sanchez (Signed one-year, $2.25M deal with PHI)
3. Josh McCown (Signed two-year, $10M deal with TB)
4. Matt Cassel (Re-signed two-year, $10M deal with MIN)
5. Josh Freeman (Signed one-year deal with NYG)
6. Shaun Hill (Signed one-year, $1.75M deal with STL)
7. Ryan Fitzpatrick (Signed two-year, $7.5M deal with HOU)
8. Jason Campbell (Signed one-year, $1.5M deal with CIN)
9. Chad Henne (Re-signed two-year, $8M deal with JAX)
10. Tarvaris Jackson (Re-signed one-year, $1.25M deal with SEA)

 
Ryan Mallett will have a cap figure of $937K.  What will JG's cap figure be, maybe $700K?  Seeing the list above, that's a lot of money that can be used at other positions of need over the next few seasons.

 

[Eck'sSneakyCheese]

I feel like expecting Brady's replacement to fall into their laps whenever one of the parties decides to move on would be the biggest waste of our draft picks possible. I want them drafting QBs early and often over the next 3 years until they are sure they have their guy. The best time to find out that the heir apparent isnt any good is when you've still got 2 years to fix the problem. I dont know if JG is the guy or not but i'm all all for finding out when it doesnt matter.

 
 

This is the most concisely written version of my thoughts as well. Take another 2nd rounder next year or 2016 if you have to, just don't leave us in the QB wilderness for half a decade after Tom.

 
 

+2.

People had best get used to this, unless the kid knocks their socks off during the next year, which I would bet against. This is the best way to guard against a 10-year run of irrelevance, and it's wildly optimistic to think a single second round pick will accomplish what you need to do.

 
Dollar I was responding to these posts advocating that BB does this for the next few years.

 

[Adrian's Dome]

 
Is that going to be crystal clear by next year?

 
Is it ever? Eventually, you have to make a decision. To make a decision, you need options.
 
And, well...frankly, having options > not having options.

 

[Dollar]

 
 
 
 
 
Dollar I was responding to these posts advocating that BB does this for the next few years.

 
Ah, sorry about that.  I guess I need some coffee.  In that case I think I agree with you.

 

[naclone]

I may not be as old as some of you here, but i'm old enough to remember what it was like not having a HOF calliber QB. And I remember not liking it so much.

Now, the Cassel season was fun but in more of a "playing with house money" kind of way, not a "i'm cool if this is our QB situation for the long-term" type of way.

I just dont think there's any way around the math of QB being the most important factor in success and the rarety of quality options necessitating "wasting" picks making sure you find one. Especially when you can reasonably afford to do so because you have a hall of famer on the roster.

Now, i'm not suggesting they not try and just throw darts blindfolded, but I'm also not suggesting they just hope the answer is sitting there in 2017. This needs to be an active process. And we're going to not be able to draft some guys as a result. Way it goes.

Edit: Another way of looking at it is, "wasting" picks on several options rather than "wasting" picks to move up to get an RG3 who you arent even sure is the guy.

 

[soxhop411]

Jimmy Garoppolo ‏@JimmyG_10  Aug 3
Happy birthday to my boy Tom #livingLegend #Brady

 

[bowiac]

Just curious, if Teddy Bridgewater had fallen to the Patriots at #62 overall, and they'd taken him, would attitudes be different?
 
I don't know anything about Garoppolo, neither do most people I'd guess, but is it more annoyance at wasting a 2nd rounder on a guy who "if things go according to plan" will never play, or is it taking an FCS guy?
 
I don't love the pick, but as I said, that's cause I don't know anything about the guy.

 

[mascho]

If TBW were there at 62, I would have been ecstatic. I also would have been okay had they even drafted him at 29. I am full on board with Operation Replace the GOAT. I even started a thread on it a few years ago to the angst of some.

The problem with JG from where I sit is that he doesn't handle pressure well. He leaves his feet unsettled in the face of pressure. His arm could make up the difference in FCS. We will have to see if it can make up the difference in the NFL.

Having happy feet is often something you can't unlearn. It is more instinctual. He's been playing football long enough that it is ingrained.

Again, I hope JG proves me wrong.

Sorry is there are typos. On mobile at a restaurant feeding a baby.

 

[RoyHobbs]

Some quotes from BB

“@MarkDanielsPJ: Belichick: "Spent a little time with him this spring. He has a lot of qualities we admire in a quarterback."”
 

 
DrewDawg alluded to it in post #45 but this BB quote says it all to me. Reading between the lines (which we always have to do with BB) it's clear they drafted Jimmy because they see him as a student, a guy who's intelligent and a quick learner and who can address the mechanical issues he might have at the moment.
 
"Qualities we admire in a QB" means different things to different teams. One team might trade intellectual prowess for athletic prowess. This team seems to value the former as much as/more than the latter; all I think of is how TB was a pretty lumpy, unrefined specimen at draft time and clearly put in the brain and body work to reach his potential.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

 
Is that going to be crystal clear by next year?

Unlikely to be crystal clear since he won't be getting live game snaps aside from preseason. Very likely that Belichick gets a very solid read on him however to determine how to proceed.

 

[ragnarok725]

 
 
 
 
 
Dollar I was responding to these posts advocating that BB does this for the next few years.

 
Do you disagree that if what it took was 2 or 3 selections in the 2nd or 3rd round to find the next great QB for the Pats, that it would be worth it to do so?
 
Nobody is advocating they just spend their next 2nd roudner on a QB blindly next year. But if they have to keep using high picks and trying out guys, the position is important enough to warrant it, no?

 

[SoxFan58]

Imagine how Packer fans felt the night of the 2005 draft.

When you aren't proactive you end up being the Jets drafting a rookie QB in the year they need a QB because they failed to plan years prior.

Idk, I felt pretty good realizing my team drafted a guy who could have been the #1 overall selection with the 24th pick. It's also a different situation because that GB team wasn't close to the Super Bowl.

 

[Reverend]

Idk, I felt pretty good realizing my team drafted a guy who could have been the #1 overall selection with the 24th pick. It's also a different situation because that GB team wasn't close to the Super Bowl.

 
There is no place for this kind of sober, reflective analysis here.

 

[Eck'sSneakyCheese]

 
Do you disagree that if what it took was 2 or 3 selections in the 2nd or 3rd round to find the next great QB for the Pats, that it would be worth it to do so?
 
Nobody is advocating they just spend their next 2nd roudner on a QB blindly next year. But if they have to keep using high picks and trying out guys, the position is important enough to warrant it, no?

 
Not every year. No.

 

[soxfan121]

Just curious, if Teddy Bridgewater had fallen to the Patriots at #62 overall, and they'd taken him, would attitudes be different?

 
Of course it would. Same for any of the QB who were hyped by Mel Kiper, Todd McShay and the rest of the "draftnik" intelligensia. 
 
Hell, there were people making the argument that any of the three M QBs from the SEC were better picks - because "I've seen them play". Nevermind that two were coming off ACL tears and none got drafted by a professional scouting department until today. 
 
"Wait - who?" is the single greatest forum naming in history.

 

[Deathofthebambino]

Wouldn't change a thing for me.  Short of Andrew Luck, I would have had the same reaction to any QB taken in that spot by the Pats yesterday.  IMO, it's an indefensible choice to have made at this point in time.  The third round would have been dumb, but defensible and I would have been ok with them taking a chance on someone after that, but given what was available at 62, the needs that the team has, and how close they are to winning a championship RIGHT NOW, I hate the pick with the fire of a thousand suns.

 

[RedOctober3829]

Wouldn't change a thing for me.  Short of Andrew Luck, I would have had the same reaction to any QB taken in that spot by the Pats yesterday.  IMO, it's an indefensible choice to have made at this point in time.  The third round would have been dumb, but defensible and I would have been ok with them taking a chance on someone after that, but given what was available at 62, the needs that the team has, and how close they are to winning a championship RIGHT NOW, I hate the pick with the fire of a thousand suns.

You articulated my thoughts way better than I could.  Sure, the process of getting the heir apparent should get started but not at the expense of adding a potential impact player for 2014.  This team is so close to getting another Super Bowl and a player they get at 62 could help shore up an area of need that could help them get there.  It's not a smart pick at that point in terms of helping this year's team out. 

 

[mascho]

 
Of course it would. Same for any of the QB who were hyped by Mel Kiper, Todd McShay and the rest of the "draftnik" intelligensia. 
 
Hell, there were people making the argument that any of the three M QBs from the SEC were better picks - because "I've seen them play". Nevermind that two were coming off ACL tears and none got drafted by a professional scouting department until today. 
 
"Wait - who?" is the single greatest forum naming in history.

If you believe my position boils down to "I've seen them play" then I must have done a piss poor job explaining myself.

And if one ACL has you worried you must hate who they drafted in the first.

 

[Deathofthebambino]

The heir apparent talk drives me insane.  As we discussed yesterday, unless we're all missing some examples, there are 2 QB's in the past 40 years that turned into top 10-15 QB's for the team that drafted them, after spending 3 years watching their predecessor from the bench.  I have a pretty good feeling that BB also knows this, so talking about this as a foregone conclusion that the plan is for JG to replace Brady when Brady's contract is up doesn't make any sense to me.  I think he absolutely drafted the best player they had on their board instead of based on need, and I think it was a mistake. 

 

[DJnVa]

You articulated my thoughts way better than I could.  Sure, the process of getting the heir apparent should get started but not at the expense of adding a potential impact player for 2014.  This team is so close to getting another Super Bowl and a player they get at 62 could help shore up an area of need that could help them get there.  It's not a smart pick at that point in terms of helping this year's team out. 

Who's the impact player we could have had? You seem sure that we overlooked one.

 

[Deathofthebambino]

Unless Brady gets hurt and Garoppolo gets playing time, I'm pretty sure that every single guy that was drafted and sees the field next year will have more of an impact.

 

[Cellar-Door]

Unless Brady gets hurt and Garoppolo gets playing time, I'm pretty sure that every single guy that was drafted and sees the field next year will have more of an impact.

wow shocking.
Guys who play will have more impact than guys who don't play.
You should write that up for Sloan.

 

[Deathofthebambino]

A pretty easy question deserves a pretty easy answer. 

 

[RedOctober3829]

Who's the impact player we could have had? You seem sure that we overlooked one.

Anyone that actually sees the field next year will have more impact than JG.  You won't have any idea of the impact of JG until he sees regular season snaps.  When will that be? Say he's the #2 behind Brady, Brady is injury-free and playing well, and therefore Brady plays out the length of his contract.  Well, JG will be a free agent as well.  How do you sign him to another contract given that he will have hardly seen the field in 4 years?  He'll be an unknown just like Mallett is.
 
Why do you feel so strongly that this was the way to go with #62?  You really don't think somebody like Tre Mason or CJF couldn't have more of an impact than JG?

 

[Cellar-Door]

Anyone that actually sees the field next year will have more impact than JG.  You won't have any idea of the impact of JG until he sees regular season snaps.  When will that be? Say he's the #2 behind Brady, Brady is injury-free and playing well, and therefore Brady plays out the length of his contract.  Well, JG will be a free agent as well.  How do you sign him to another contract given that he will have hardly seen the field in 4 years?  He'll be an unknown just like Mallett is.
 
Why do you feel so strongly that this was the way to go with #62?  You really don't think somebody like Tre Mason or CJF couldn't have more of an impact than JG?

Sure, but you are making the huge assumption that Brady stays healthy through his entire late 30s. Also the assumption that the player you draft instead of JG wins playing time. Neither is a guarantee.

 

[wutang112878]

Who's the impact player we could have had? You seem sure that we overlooked one.

 
Fiedorowicz, C.J.
 
Brooks, Terrence
 
Nix, Louis
 
Fiedorowicz and Nix I was intrigued by before the draft and once I saw highlights of Brooks I was upset we couldnt get him

 

[DJnVa]

 
Why do you feel so strongly that this was the way to go with #62?

Because I accept that I don't know as much as the guys drafting.

Do you want Brady to announce his retirement before we start looking for his replacement?

 

[soxfan121]

If you believe my position boils down to "I've seen them play" then I must have done a piss poor job explaining myself.

And if one ACL has you worried you must hate who they drafted in the first.

 
My apologies - I should have been much more clear that I was jumping off your point, not addressing you, personally. 
 
ACLs don't worry me much after Brady came back to be Brady after his and then Adrian Peterson proved it to be the new TJS. I simply noted it because professional talent evaluators didn't think the 3M QBs were worthy of a second or third round pick and there were a few posts saying that had those guys been the pick, it would have been better. 
 
Frankly, the reverse jinx that DotB and others are casting in this thread has me worried. 37 year old QBs are in sight of the finish line. Maybe its three or four or five or even six more years...but it's coming. And injuries can happen any time, to anyone. The single best way to avoid a lost season due to QB injury is to have more than one capable QB. 
 
And yeah, there's no fucking way paying Mark Sanchez $2M or Kyle Orton $4M is better than "wasting" a 2nd round pick on an insurance policy. Insurance costs money. When you don't need it, it can sometimes feel like a waste of money. But when you do need it, and don't have it, you're going bankrupt (or belly up, or to last place in the division). 

 

[mascho]

Fair enough. Part of my thinking on the 3Ms is that in addition to being better QBs, they would likely have been available in the third or so, and the Patriots could have gotten Nix or someone else. But I have never met any of these guys, never seen medical records, never interviewed them, broken bread, etc.

If McCarron really was an asshole during his meetings, then no wonder he fell. If ZM does have character flaws, then his falling makes sense. Conversely, if Jimmy G walked into Gillette and blew everyone away, then great. I can only base my analysis on the film I've seen.

 

[Deathofthebambino]

SF, I'm fine with that argument.  I also agree it would be insane to bring in a veteran backup for cost reasons, but if they are drafting a guy solely for the event of a Brady injury, I think they should have just let it ride with Mallett for another year and/or grabbed one of the other guys later in the draft.  And if we're being honest with ourselves, neither Mallett, nor Garoppolo, nor any of the guys later in the draft would give us enough wins to matter anyway if Brady went down.

 

[soxfan121]

SF, I'm fine with that argument.  I also agree it would be insane to bring in a veteran backup for cost reasons, but if they are drafting a guy solely for the event of a Brady injury, I think they should have just let it ride with Mallett for another year and/or grabbed one of the other guys later in the draft.  And if we're being honest with ourselves, neither Mallett, nor Garoppolo, nor any of the guys later in the draft would give us enough wins to matter anyway if Brady went down.

 
I get what you're saying but I think if you wait until Mallet is gone you are putting yourself into a pickle. What if no one you workout and interview next year fits? What if the prospects aren't as good as the team thinks JG is now? What if your team needs change dramatically over the next year because of injuries? Because you HAVE to take a QB next year, with a 38 year old and bumpkus on the depth chart. 
 
I have no idea if JG is any good. Like I said up thread - I hope we never find out if he's any good. I hope he serves out his four years the way Mallet has - with a clipboard, backing up the best QB of all time. 
 
I also think - based primarily on Brian Hoyer and Matt Cassel - that the guys kept as Brady's backups can play at a reasonable level, given the talent around them and the skill of the coaching staff. I don't think they win a Super Bowl without Brady...but I'm pretty sure Giants fans said the same thing when Simms got hurt and Mustache Hostetler had to take the reins. 
 
The point is to always be competitive. A Tom Brady injury is not reason to toss $12M of Revis's contract into a fire. If Brady gets hurt and can't play, then a Mallet/Garrapolo depth chart is light years better than a Mark Sanchez/Kyle Orton/Shit Sandwich depth chart that results if you don't make the move one year early.

 

[RedOctober3829]

Because I accept that I don't know as much as the guys drafting.
Do you want Brady to announce his retirement before we start looking for his replacement?

I want to win as much as possible before Brady retires. I've accepted they'll take a step back when he retires so maximize the opportunities now to win another Super Bowl before he's done.

 

[Deathofthebambino]

SF, if the concern is you might not be able to get a guy next year, there is another alternative.  Take a different guy later on this year.  Again, we're all saying the same thing.  We hope JG never sees the field, he's just a backup, etc.  If that's the case, is it more important to get "your guy" at number 62 rather than grab someone later on, if they are just going to sit on the bench?  I personally don't think so.  And if you take a guy later on, and you aren't really happy with him, then you just keep Mallett and look again next year.  The bottom line is that there are a ton of options to shoring up the depth behind Brady for a couple of years that don't involved drafting a guy in the 2nd round this year.  That's literally my only problem with the pick.  If they feel that JG is that much better than whatever else they could have gotten later on in the draft, or next year, I have a hard time buying that they were so confident that he would reach them at #62.  It just doesn't fit.  Something is lost in translation when thinking about it logically, and thus, the only thing I keep coming back to is that they had to have drafted the best available guy according to their board, need be damned.
 

 

[Cellar-Door]

SF, if the concern is you might not be able to get a guy next year, there is another alternative.  Take a different guy later on this year.  Again, we're all saying the same thing.  We hope JG never sees the field, he's just a backup, etc.  If that's the case, is it more important to get "your guy" at number 62 rather than grab someone later on, if they are just going to sit on the bench?  I personally don't think so.  And if you take a guy later on, and you aren't really happy with him, then you just keep Mallett and look again next year.  The bottom line is that there are a ton of options to shoring up the depth behind Brady for a couple of years that don't involved drafting a guy in the 2nd round this year.  That's literally my only problem with the pick.  If they feel that JG is that much better than whatever else they could have gotten later on in the draft, or next year, I have a hard time buying that they were so confident that he would reach them at #62.  It just doesn't fit.  Something is lost in translation when thinking about it logically, and thus, the only thing I keep coming back to is that they had to have drafted the best available guy according to their board, need be damned.
 

The thing I'd say is that when you draft a guy to back up Brady it has to be a guy who you feel could be good enough to start for you if Tom gets hurt. Drafting JG in the second tells me that they thought he had a significantly better chance of being a guy who could start in case of a Brady injury than the remaining QBs on the board. It also seems to imply that they think he is possibly good enough to be better than Mallett this year.

 

[soxfan121]

SF, if the concern is you might not be able to get a guy next year, there is another alternative.  Take a different guy later on this year.  Again, we're all saying the same thing.  We hope JG never sees the field, he's just a backup, etc.  If that's the case, is it more important to get "your guy" at number 62 rather than grab someone later on, if they are just going to sit on the bench?  I personally don't think so.  And if you take a guy later on, and you aren't really happy with him, then you just keep Mallett and look again next year.  The bottom line is that there are a ton of options to shoring up the depth behind Brady for a couple of years that don't involved drafting a guy in the 2nd round this year.  That's literally my only problem with the pick.  If they feel that JG is that much better than whatever else they could have gotten later on in the draft, or next year, I have a hard time buying that they were so confident that he would reach them at #62.  It just doesn't fit.  Something is lost in translation when thinking about it logically, and thus, the only thing I keep coming back to is that they had to have drafted the best available guy according to their board, need be damned.
 

 
I think you're mostly right - JG was the best guy on their board at that pick. Given that we know they put the board together based on both pure talent AND role/fit with the team, we must also assume that they think a guy who can push* Brady for the next few years has more value to the team than taking an OL when they had guys they liked equally further on in the late rounds. 
 
I also think there's ample evidence that they draft for NEXT year's needs, almost as a rule. Have two RB with expiring deals after 2014? Draft a RB in 2014, let him sit, just like they did when they had BJGE/Woodhead and took Ridley/Vereen. Have a backup QB leaving after 2014 (less than zero chance Mallet re-signs)? Get a backup, carry three QB for a season, have the new guy ready to go from Quarter 1 in Game 1 of the 2015 season. 
 
Surely you see the value of having JG as the 3rd guy for a year (so he isn't forced in before he knows the system, gets "coached up") as opposed to relying on a "fresh from college" guy to back up the most important position on a Super Bowl contender.
 
*I got some crap using this last night and I want to be clear - I don't think JG is going to take the best QB of all time's job. I do think Brady himself understands the value of internal competition. He got the job by pushing Bledsoe and then overtaking him with hard work, talent and effort. No one - NO ONE - gets a free ride. I've heard Brady talk about the "value of competition" in the weight room and practice field. I think Brady is professional enough to know that it can all end - like it did for Drew - at any moment. And I think Brady is enough of a team guy to understand that while he (and fans) want to have as much "help" as he can get, that internal competition is a form of "help", too.

 

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

You articulated my thoughts way better than I could.  Sure, the process of getting the heir apparent should get started but not at the expense of adding a potential impact player for 2014.  This team is so close to getting another Super Bowl and a player they get at 62 could help shore up an area of need that could help them get there.  It's not a smart pick at that point in terms of helping this year's team out. 

If you could pick any player that was on the board at #62, how much would adding that player increase the likelihood of the Patriots winning the Super Bowl?

We are probably talking about .1% or something in increased chances.

 

[Ralphwiggum]

I'm not sure why it is so hard for some people to understand that drafting for need in order to maximize the Brady window is completely contrary to everything we know about both the guy who owns the team and the guy who coaches the team and picks the players. I'm not saying I would have predicted them taking a QB as high as they did, but operating from the assumption that they had JG rated highly, it isn't hard to understand the pick.

I think specific critiques of the player by Mascho and others has been illuminating to a guy like me who does not really follow the draft. But the gnashing of teeth over picking a QB that high I simply don't get from anyone who has paid any attention to how this team does business.

 

[Golddust Man]

What of Mallett? Why has this guy been our only backup if a raw Garoppolo will now be signed as competition? Or, otherwise, why trade Mallett - which the Garoppolo pick seems to support - when the apparent confidence in him (the only backup to TFB) suggests he's better than we think?
 
What makes no sense to me about this pick is Mallett and the 2nd pick. I guess it's possible that some other GM thinks more highly of him than BB does (O'B), but if that's not the case, if BB likes him as his rosters have indicated for 3 years, why draft another talent when Mallett could be extended instead and the 2nd could be used more wisely?

 

[Jungleland]

In a league where Brian Hoyer gets 3+ chances to start after leaving the Pats, Ryan Mallett would be insane to resign into a backup role. He will sign elsewhere next year regardless of the pats non-Brady QBs and probably get his long awaited cup of coffee.

 

[Cellar-Door]

What of Mallett? Why has this guy been our only backup if a raw Garoppolo will now be signed as competition? Or, otherwise, why trade Mallett - which the Garoppolo pick seems to support - when the apparent confidence in him (the only backup to TFB) suggests he's better than we think?
 
What makes no sense to me about this pick is Mallett and the 2nd pick. I guess it's possible that some other GM thinks more highly of him than BB does (O'B), but if that's not the case, if BB likes him as his rosters have indicated for 3 years, why draft another talent when Mallett could be extended instead and the 2nd could be used more wisely?

He has 1 year left on his deal and no incentive to re-sign with the Patriots given that Brady is locked in and the number of teams with awful QB situations.

 

[Ralphwiggum]

What of Mallett? Why has this guy been our only backup if a raw Garoppolo will now be signed as competition? Or, otherwise, why trade Mallett - which the Garoppolo pick seems to support - when the apparent confidence in him (the only backup to TFB) suggests he's better than we think?
 
What makes no sense to me about this pick is Mallett and the 2nd pick. I guess it's possible that some other GM thinks more highly of him than BB does (O'B), but if that's not the case, if BB likes him as his rosters have indicated for 3 years, why draft another talent when Mallett could be extended instead and the 2nd could be used more wisely?

Why would Mallett ever re-sign with the Pats? He's going somewhere where he is going to get a chance to compete for a starting job. Unless Brady gets hit by a truck he would be insane so re-sign with the Pats.

 

[mauf]

A lot of people here want to have it both ways -- get an impact player in the 2nd round and meaningfully address the long-term need at QB. If you look at the numbers, however, trying to address QB in the later rounds is a losing strategy. The recent successes of Wilson and Glennon (both 3rd rounders) sticks in the memory, but over the past decade, the success rate for QBs not drafted in the first two rounds has been extremely low -- the days when guys like Tom Brady or Tony Romo were late-round fliers or UDFAs are over.

 

[soxhop411]

Mike Reiss ‏@MikeReiss  2m
Asked BB if there was example that stood out to him on importance of having QB position accounted for at all layers, and he said 2011 Colts.
 
Mike Reiss ‏@MikeReiss  1m
BB went on to say that Patriots would never want to build their team in a way that would lead to 1-15 season because of no viable QB option.
 
 
Tom E. Curran ‏@tomecurran  6m
I don't think we would put together our team the way Indianapolis did it when they lost Manning. .... I don't think we'd be happy going 1-15

 

[Phragle]

Death has done a great job, I mostly agree with him. Too early for a Brady replacement, and too high for a Mallett replacement. I also don't want to carry three QBs. It's a roster space issue as well. 
 

Who's the impact player we could have had? You seem sure that we overlooked one.

 
In 2011 there was an abundance of players that could have helped the team more than Mallett did. In 2014 there there should only be more in theory.
 

If you could pick any player that was on the board at #62, how much would adding that player increase the likelihood of the Patriots winning the Super Bowl?

We are probably talking about .1% or something in increased chances.

 
It's entirely dependent on the player, but I think any move that doesn't maximize your SB chances over the next 4-5 years is a bad pick.
 
I usually don't say things like this, but if they take Jurrell Casey over Ryan Mallett in 2011, they probably have another ring. I don't want to say something like that ever again, but the same thing could happen this time.

 

[Golddust Man]

He has 1 year left on his deal and no incentive to re-sign with the Patriots given that Brady is locked in and the number of teams with awful QB situations.

I don't particularly agree with this. He has been trained now for 3 years in the Pats system; he knows how old TFB is and of the cracks that appeared in his game last year. In what world would Mallett suppose the grass is greener elsewhere? If he's quality the job is his way before his 30th bday.

 

[Golddust Man]

Death has done a great job, I mostly agree with him. Too early for a Brady replacement, and too high for a Mallett replacement. I also don't want to carry three QBs. It's a roster space issue as well. 
 
 
In 2011 there was an abundance of players that could have helped the team more than Mallett did. In 2014 there there should only be more in theory.
 
 
It's entirely dependent on the player, but I think any move that doesn't maximize your SB chances over the next 4-5 years is a bad pick.
 
I usually don't say things like this, but if they take Jurrell Casey over Ryan Mallett in 2011, they probably have another ring. I don't want to say something like that ever again, but the same thing could happen this time.

Exactly

 

[Super Nomario]

Death has done a great job, I mostly agree with him. Too early for a Brady replacement, and too high for a Mallett replacement. I also don't want to carry three QBs. It's a roster space issue as well. 

This doesn't bother me. There are 7 inactives every week. Last year they had three guys in Bequette, Beauharnais, and Barker who played fewer than 50 snaps (including special teams) and were inactive almost the whole year. They can redshirt a 3rd QB.
 

In 2011 there was an abundance of players that could have helped the team more than Mallett did. In 2014 there there should only be more in theory.
 
 
It's entirely dependent on the player, but I think any move that doesn't maximize your SB chances over the next 4-5 years is a bad pick.
 
I usually don't say things like this, but if they take Jurrell Casey over Ryan Mallett in 2011, they probably have another ring. I don't want to say something like that ever again, but the same thing could happen this time.

Maybe, if they picked Casey, but not if they picked DeMarcus Van Dyke or Jah Reid or Brandon Hogan or Jerrel Jernigan or Drake Nevis or any of probably 25 of the 30 players after Mallett. They didn't give up a useful player to take Mallett; they gave up a chance at a useful player, and not a very good chance.
 
SF121 fairly likened the pick to insurance. Brady's at the age where most QBs are wrapping up their careers. Rich Gannon was first-team All-Pro at age 37; he started just 10 games over the next two seasons (his last two). Trent Green made a Pro Bowl at 35 and never started more than 8 games in a season again. Marino missed 5 games in his age-38 season and then retired. Simms played just 10 games over his age 36 and 37 seasons. Even Elway, who went out a Super Bowl winner, missed 4 games in his final season; that Bubby Brister was able go 4-0 in those games helped Denver keep their playoff position. Warren Moon was a regular starter until age 42 but missed time in 6 of his last 7 seasons as a starter. Steve Young played just 3 games at age 38 and then retired. Montana missed 16, 15, 5, and 2 games from age 35-on. The list goes on and on.
 
His contract means, barring catastrophe, Brady will be the regular starter the next three seasons at least. But if you think it's likely he'll play 16 games each of those three seasons, you're kidding yourself. Could he? Of course, but chances are he'll miss games here and there, and having a competent backup might be the difference between winning the Super Bowl (like the '99 Broncos) or missing the playoffs entirely (like the Packers last year).