Ranking the NFC

[Dgilpin]

As of Week 7
 
1. Cowboys 6-1
2. Packers 5-2
3. Cardinals 5-1
4. Lions 5-2
5. Eagles 5-1
6. Seahawks 3-3
7. 49ers 4-3
8. Giants 3-4
9. Panthers 3-3-1
10. Rams 2-4
11. Bears 3-4
12. Saints 2-4
13. Vikings 2-5
14. Falcons 2-5
15. Redskins 2-5
16. Bucs 1-5

 

[DanoooME]

1. Dallas 6-1
2. Detroit 5-2
3. Arizona 5-1
4. Philadelphia 5-1
5. Green Bay 5-2
6. Seattle 3-3
7. San Francisco 4-3
8. New Orleans 2-4
9. New York Giants 3-4
10. Carolina 3-3-1
11. Chicago 3-4
12. St. Louis 2-4
13. Minnesota 2-5
14. Atlanta 2-4
15. Washington 2-5
16. Tampa Bay 1-5
 
You can make an argument for #2 through #5 in almost any order.  It's that close.

 

[Al Zarilla]

So, has Jim Caldwell had a brain transplant, or a balls transplant?

 

[Ed Hillel]

I know many will disagree, but here's how I'd pick the teams now if I had a neutral field:
 
1. Packers
2. Cowboys
3. Arizona
4. Philly
5. Seattle
6. San Fran (I am giving them some credit for injuries/suspension likely to return)
7. Detroit
 
The rest don't matter.

 

[tims4wins]

Really, the Pack? They haven't played all that well, especially against some of the better teams on their schedule (Detroit, Seattle)

They were thisclose to losing last week and were also down 21-3 to the Jets at home. I think they are pretenders personally.

 

[Oil Can Dan]

1. Philly
2. Dallas
3. Arizona
4. Green Bay
5. Seattle
6. SF
7. Detroit
 
I might be selling Detroit a little short.

 

[Super Nomario]

I know Arizona is 5-1 (and did a lot of that without their starting QB), but do people really think they'd beat teams like Seattle, Green Bay, and Philly on a neutral field?

 

[tims4wins]

Well they beat SD at home, albeit in somewhat lucky fashion, and they beat SF by more than a score. They can only really play their schedule. But we should know how good they are by Thanksgiving:
 
Oct 26 vs. Philly
Nov 2 @ Dallas
Nov 9 vs. St. Louis
Nov 16 vs. Detroit
Nov 23 @ Seattle
 
Brutal stretch.
 
Edit: they also tend to take care of business, in that 4 of their 5 wins have been by 2 scores. They are only +21 on the year, a function of losing by 21 to Denver, but that game was fluky due to the QB situation.

 

[Ed Hillel]

I know Arizona is 5-1 (and did a lot of that without their starting QB), but do people really think they'd beat teams like Seattle, Green Bay, and Philly on a neutral field?

 
Sure, why not? In addition to what Tim mentioned,they went into Denver with their backup QB and were competitive. Seattle, in particular, is just a different team away from that crowd noise, and Arizona went into Seattle and beat Seattle last year too. Arizona's defense is really good, and they have some play-makers on offense as well.
 

Really, the Pack? They haven't played all that well, especially against some of the better teams on their schedule (Detroit, Seattle)

 
Nope, they haven't, but they have the best QB of the bunch and are playing better as of late. I also really like the way they match up against Dallas.

 

[Super Nomario]

 
Sure, why not? In addition to what Tim mentioned,they went into Denver with their backup QB and were competitive. Seattle, in particular, is just a different team away from that crowd noise, and Arizona went into Seattle and beat Seattle last year too. Arizona's defense is really good, and they have some play-makers on offense as well.

Sure, they have some good players, but their success this year has been on some shaky foundation. Their Pythag is just 3.6-2.4. They are #1 in the league at not throwing interceptions, something I certainly don't expect to continue with Carson Palmer at QB. Their points rankings (14th in points scored, 5th in points allowed) greatly outperform their yards (28th and 18th, respectively). Their offense is 24th in NY/A passing at 30th in YPC running. The run D is #1 in YPC but the pass D is just 28th in NYA.
 
These second- and third-level numbers look to me more like a 7-9 team on a hot streak than a real contender. I expect them to play better on offense with Palmer back, and getting Campbell back will help the D, but I don't see them as one of the powers of the NFC.

 

[Dgilpin]

So, has Jim Caldwell had a brain transplant, or a balls transplant?

I think more credit goes to Teryl Austin the Lions new defensive coordinator , who was finally able to transform the Lions front 7 talent into an elite defensive unit. Also with a even league average kicker the Lions are 6-1. I'm willing to give the lack of offense a pass as then have been without a full strength Calvin Johnson for most of the season so far.

 

[j-man]

1 Dal  2 Zona/Philly  4 Det/gb   6 SF 7 SEA  8 NYG 9 CAR 10 NO 11 CHI 12 STL 13 ATL 14 WASH/MINN 16 TB 

 

[coremiller]

 
Sure, why not? In addition to what Tim mentioned,they went into Denver with their backup QB and were competitive. Seattle, in particular, is just a different team away from that crowd noise, and Arizona went into Seattle and beat Seattle last year too. Arizona's defense is really good, and they have some play-makers on offense as well.
 

 
Arizona was not competitive against Denver, they got outgained 568-215.  They managed to stay in the game until the fourth quarter from a score perspective by hitting a couple of big plays (Campbell ran back an intercepted screen pass to the 5-yard-line, Logan Thomas went 1-8 but the 1 completion was an 81-yard TD pass), but Denver dominated that game.

 

[Chemistry Schmemistry]

I'd move the 49ers up quite a bit. They have two wins over 1-loss teams, lots of injuries, and their opponents' unbiased W/L is a sick 26-11. I would not be surprised to see a 12-4 from this team.

For me, 1.ARI, 2.SF, 3. DAL, 4. GB, 5. SEA, 6. DET, 7. PHI, 8. CAR, 9. CHI, 10. NYG, 11. NO, 12. STL, 13. WAS, 14. ATL, 15. MIN, 16. TB.

 

[DanoooME]

1. Arizona 6-1
2. Dallas 6-2
3. Detroit 6-2
4. Philadelphia 5-2
5. Seattle 4-3
6. San Francisco 4-3
7. Green Bay 5-3
8. New Orleans 3-4
9. Carolina 3-4-1
10. New York Giants 3-4
11. Chicago 3-5
12. Minnesota 3-5
13. Washington 3-5
14. St. Louis 2-5
15. Atlanta 2-6
16. Tampa Bay 1-6

 

[coremiller]

 
1. Arizona 6-1
2. Dallas 6-2
3. Detroit 6-2
4. Philadelphia 5-2
5. Seattle 4-3
6. San Francisco 4-3
7. Green Bay 5-3
8. New Orleans 3-4
9. Carolina 3-4-1
10. New York Giants 3-4
11. Chicago 3-5
12. Minnesota 3-5
13. Washington 3-5
14. St. Louis 2-5
15. Atlanta 2-6
16. Tampa Bay 1-6
 

 
The NFC is really tough to figure out right now.  The consensus on the three best teams before the season was probably Seattle, SF, and NO, but they are a combined 11-10.  Arizona is 6-1 but would probably be an underdog on a neutral field to the six teams DanooME has ranked below them -- for example, they were favored by only 1.5 at home against Philly last week, and they are giving 4 at Dallas next week even with Romo's health up in the air and after Dallas' debacle last night.  Dallas and Detroit have the next best records, but does anyone trust them in a big game?
 
The wild cards here are going to be a battle royale.  There are four teams -- two of AZ/SF/SEA, one of GB/DET, one of DAL/PHI -- fighting for two slots, and they have a combined 12 games left against each other.

 

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

 
The NFC is really tough to figure out right now.  The consensus on the three best teams before the season was probably Seattle, SF, and NO, but they are a combined 11-10.  Arizona is 6-1 but would probably be an underdog on a neutral field to the six teams DanooME has ranked below them -- for example, they were favored by only 1.5 at home against Philly last week, and they are giving 4 at Dallas next week even with Romo's health up in the air and after Dallas' debacle last night.  Dallas and Detroit have the next best records, but does anyone trust them in a big game?
 
The wild cards here are going to be a battle royale.  There are four teams -- two of AZ/SF/SEA, one of GB/DET, one of DAL/PHI -- fighting for two slots, and they have a combined 12 games left against each other.

 
Yup, the NFC is wide open.
 
They face an uphill battle due to three losses and a tough schedule, but if I had to bet on which team would be the best by the end of the year - not talking playoff seeding, just best team - I would pick your 49ers.  Given the players they're getting back from injury and some very real questions about Seattle's skill position talent and depth, I'd say they have the highest upside of any of the contenders.  They got embarrassed in Denver but that will happen to a lot of teams and the defensive injuries loomed large.  Otherwise, I was very impressed with them in the PHI and KC games and I'm relatively high on both of those teams.

 

[Stitch01]

Betting market rankings from inpredictable (NFC rank, total rank, and how many points the team would likely be underdog to Seattle on a neutral field)
 
Random aside: Betting market is pricing Denver 4.8 points better than Seattle.
 
1 (2) Seattle   --
2 (6) GB         1.9
3 (7)  Philly     1.9
4 (9)  SF         2.1
5  (11)  NO     2.7
6  (12) Dal      2.7
7  (14) Det      3.4
8  (15) Ari       4.0
9  (20)  NYG   6.2
10  (21) Car    7.3
11  (22) Chi    7.5
12  (24) Atl     8.7
13  (25)  Was 8.9
14 (26)  Min    9.3
15 (28)  SL    9.6
16 (30)  TB    12.2
 
Random aside: Broncos projected to be 20.5 point favorites at home when they play Oakland
 
Arizona seems low to me and Id probably swap SF and Philly but doesn't seem bad.

 

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

I realize that DVOA likes them too but I don't get the love for Green Bay.  They have crunched some awful-to-mediocre teams and been effectively non-competitive in the three games they've played against good opposition (all played on the road, but still).

 

[Dgilpin]

1. Arizona 6-1
2. Dallas 6-2
3. Philly 5-2
4. Detroit 6-2
5. Seattle 4-3
6. 49ers 4-3
7. Green Bay 5-3
8. Carolina 3-4-1
9. New Orleans 3-4
10. Giants 3-4
11. Chicago 3-5
12. Washington 3-5
13. St. Louis 2-5
14. Vikings 3-5
15. Atlanta 2-6
16. Tampa 1-6

 

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

This conference gets more confusing with each week.
 
Despite the loss yesterday, I'll double down on SF potentially being the best or one of the best teams in this conference by the end of the year.  But they're probably underdogs to even make the playoffs at this point.
 
So who do we see as favorites?
 
-Seattle is the best team by most advanced rating systems but has been unconvincing for four straight weeks and has some real questions regarding its offense.
-Arizona is the favorite for the #1 seed but very poorly regarded by advanced ratings systems.  Also, Carson Palmer.
-Detroit is hard to get excited about but might actually have the best combination of record, advanced rating systems profile, and remaining schedule.
-Philly is about to get butt fumbled.
-The Cowboys have been coming down to earth, hard.
-Green Bay is still very one-dimensional on both defense and offense and has had its door blown off when facing decent teams.
-New Orleans is looking good recently but is almost out of the running for a bye.
 
This will be a fun conference to watch because anybody could get hot/stay injury free and get to the Super Bowl.  But I'm not sure there are any particularly imposing teams.  Right now if you gave me AFC -4 in the Super Bowl I'd probably take it.

 

[Stitch01]

BOLD HOT TAKE PREDICTION: Sanchez will look decent as QB in Philly
 
Beyond that, lots of luck with this conference.  Right now Arizona and Philly are the bye teams (I think Philly has tiebreak over Detroit, but if not switch it), Detroit and the Saints host playoff games, and the Cowboys and Seahawks are wild cards with SF and GB on the outside looking in yet Id be entirely unsurprised if somehow SF vs. GB ended up being the NFC title game. 

 

[LondonSox]

RE Sanchez you guys are way too Jets focused. This Eagles team is winning with the worst turnover margin in the conference. If Sanchez can just hold on to the ball he doesn't need to be a star.

I am a bit confused why people are up on the niners. Their offense has been pretty bad all year, Davis has apparently vanished, gore is either not being used for coaching reasons or is actually getting old and we know there are weird things afoot with the front office vs coach. I could see them spiral.
I think they hang around but it's a tough division and they are way on the outside looking in.

 

[Super Nomario]

RE Sanchez you guys are way too Jets focused. This Eagles team is winning with the worst turnover margin in the conference. If Sanchez can just hold on to the ball he doesn't need to be a star.

Unfortunately, that's been Sanchez' biggest problem his entire career.

 

[Stitch01]

RE Sanchez you guys are way too Jets focused. This Eagles team is winning with the worst turnover margin in the conference. If Sanchez can just hold on to the ball he doesn't need to be a star.

I am a bit confused why people are up on the niners. Their offense has been pretty bad all year, Davis has apparently vanished, gore is either not being used for coaching reasons or is actually getting old and we know there are weird things afoot with the front office vs coach. I could see them spiral.
I think they hang around but it's a tough division and they are way on the outside looking in.

I agree with you, I think he's a downgrade from Foles but not of the "oh my God Brandon Weeden just threw another terrible INT on a simple eight yard out pattern and now we are going to think about playing our semi-crippled starter against one of the worst teams in football before a bye" variety

 

[Dgilpin]

1. Cardinals
2. Eagles
3. Lions
4. Dallas
5. Seattle
6. New Orleans
7. Green Bay
8. 49ers
9. Rams
10. Carolina
11. Vikings
12. Bears
13. Redskins
14. Giants
15. Falcons
16. Bucs

 

[LondonSox]

Unfortunately, that's been Sanchez' biggest problem his entire career.

This is fair.

 

[ThePrideofShiner]

Seattle was missing 6-8 starters last week, starting a fourth-stringer at center. They had an undrafted free agent at middle linebacker. Basically, they have been a shell of what they were early in the season. I think as guys get healthy they will start to look like the team that destroyed Green Bay and Denver.
 
If they don't get healthy, though, the gauntlet they are about to run will send them to a 6-10 finish.

 

[DanoooME]

1. Arizona 7-1
2. Detroit 6-2
3. Philadelphia 6-2
4. Dallas 6-3
5. Seattle 5-3
6. San Francisco 4-4
7. Green Bay 5-3
8. New Orleans 4-4
9. Carolina 3-5-1
10. Chicago 4-5
11. Minnesota 4-5
12. St. Louis 3-5
13. New York Giants 3-5
14. Washington 3-6
15. Atlanta 2-6
16. Tampa Bay 1-7

 

[RIrooter09]

Seattle was missing 6-8 starters last week, starting a fourth-stringer at center. They had an undrafted free agent at middle linebacker. Basically, they have been a shell of what they were early in the season. I think as guys get healthy they will start to look like the team that destroyed Green Bay and Denver.
 
If they don't get healthy, though, the gauntlet they are about to run will send them to a 6-10 finish.

They beat Denver in OT yes? I'd hardly call that destroying them.

 

[DJnVa]

Herm Edwards on ESPN Radio this morning said Seattle won't make the playoffs.

 

[DanoooME]

1. Arizona 8-1
2. Detroit 7-2
3. Philadelphia 7-2
4. Dallas 7-3
5. Seattle 6-3
6. San Francisco 5-4
7. Green Bay 6-3
8. New Orleans 4-5
9. Carolina 3-6-1
10. Minnesota 4-5
11. St. Louis 3-6
12. Chicago 3-6
13. New York Giants 3-6
14. Washington 3-6
15. Atlanta 3-6
16. Tampa Bay 1-8
 
9-15 are a mess and you can order them any way you wish and I don't think it matters.  Tampa Bay is a clear #16 and New Orleans I'm fairly confident is a half-step above the rest.

 

[Dgilpin]

1. Cardinals

2. Lions
3. Eagles
4. Dallas
5. Seattle
6. Green Bay
7. 49ers
8. Saints
9. Vikings
10. Giants
11. Redskins
12. Rams
13. Panthers
14. Falcons
15. Bears
16. Bucs

 

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

No idea how to rank these teams. The teams I thought were the best (SEA, SF) keep losing vital pieces and the team with the best record (ARI) just lost their QB for the season and has a murderous schedule.

Detroit
Philly
Green Bay
Seattle
San Francisco
Arizona
Dallas
New Orleans
St. Louis
Minnesota
New York
Carolina
Washington
Atlanta
Chicago
Tampa

Another weird thing about this conference is that while there's not much between the top eight teams IMO, the next eight all are pretty bad. There's no middle class. In the AFC, you have 11 teams that are at least decent.

 

[RedOctober3829]

Both SF and Seattle took major blows today on defense with the losses of Patrick Willis and Brandon Mebane for the season. 

 

[Marciano490]

Wait, if Atlanta wins next week and NO and Car both lose, the Falcons are in first?

 

[coremiller]

When people are ranking teams, are they doing it based on: a) projected playoff seeding b) best resume so far, c) "best" team in the sense of who would win on a neutral field tomorrow, or d) something else? 

 

[Dgilpin]

When people are ranking teams, are they doing it based on: a) projected playoff seeding b) best resume so far, c) "best" team in the sense of who would win on a neutral field tomorrow, or d) something else? 

B & c for me

 

[DanoooME]

When people are ranking teams, are they doing it based on: a) projected playoff seeding b) best resume so far, c) "best" team in the sense of who would win on a neutral field tomorrow, or d) something else? 

 
 

B & c for me

 
B & C for me as well.

 

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

I think about this in terms of B & C as well. But my ultimate point is that there's hardly anything between a bunch of teams at the top (probably top five to be more precise). So I'm allowing W/L record (and therefore likely HFA in any possible playoff matchup) to tiebreak a bit. I'm not confident that Detroit is better than San Francisco, for instance. But I'm not confident in the reverse either.

 

[dynomite]

Wait, if Atlanta wins next week and NO and Car both lose, the Falcons are in first?

Incredibly... Yes, I believe.

The Falcons and Saints would have identical Conference records, with the Falcons holding the H2H advantage. The 4-6 Falcons would be positioned as the #4 seed.

PS This week is ATL @ CAR, which will go a long way to deciding which 8-8 (7-9?) NFC South team hosts a playoff game.

Edit: Tough remaining schedule for ATL, though. Apart from playing CAR twice, the only other team they will play with a potentially losing record is @NO in Week 16.

 

[dbn]

When people are ranking teams, are they doing it based on: a) projected playoff seeding b) best resume so far, c) "best" team in the sense of who would win on a neutral field tomorrow, or d) something else? 

 
A long time ago I wrote some code that ranks teams simply by who-beat-whom. The way it works is:
(1) rank teams 1 - 32 by win %
(2) going through each team's schedule, award them 1 pt if the beat the 32nd ranked team, 2 pts if they beat the 31st, 3 pts for the 30th... 31 pts if they beat the 2nd ranked team, and 32 points if they beat the top-ranked team, -1 pt for losing to the 1st ranked team, -2 pts for losing to the 2nd ranked team... -32 pts for losing to the 32nd ranked team.
(3) re-rank teams 1 - 32 by pts.
(4) if any team's ranking has changed, return to step (2).
 
I don't usually share the results because they are of limited use, but it does speak a little to the "best resume so far" question. The table shows rank, team, record, total points after iteration converges, a list of the ranks of the teams they beat -- lost to. NFC teams in bold.
 
 
 1 ARI   8- 1___150.00_____ 11 16 6 24 30 3 7 15 -- 2
 2 DEN   7- 2___129.50_____ 10 4 1 27 6 11 30 -- 8 5
 3 PHI   7- 2___84.00_____ 31 10 24 15 16 18 26 -- 6 1
 4  KC   6- 3___79.50_____ 13 5 11 15 27 12 -- 28 2 6
 5  NE   7- 2___79.00_____ 22 30 17 12 27 25 2 -- 13 4
 6  SF   5- 4___70.00_____ 7 3 4 15 23 -- 25 1 2 15
 7 DAL   7- 3___61.00_____ 28 15 23 18 8 16 31 -- 6 24 1
 8 SEA   6- 3___53.00_____ 14 2 24 26 30 16 -- 11 7 15
 9 DET   7- 2___49.00_____ 16 14 27 22 23 29 13 -- 26 12
10 IND   6- 3___43.50_____ 31 28 19 18 17 16 -- 2 3 21
11  SD   5- 4___37.00_____ 8 12 31 27 30 -- 1 4 2 13
12 BUF   5- 4___31.50_____ 25 13 9 22 27 -- 11 18 5 4
13 MIA   5- 4___24.50_____ 5 30 25 31 11 -- 12 4 14 9
14  GB   6- 3___20.00_____ 27 25 22 13 26 25 -- 8 9 23
15 STL   3- 6___10.00_____ 32 8 6 -- 22 7 3 6 4 1
16 NYG   3- 6___-10.00_____ 18 24 29 -- 9 1 3 7 10 8
17 CIN   6- 4___-14.50_____ 19 29 28 26 19 31 -- 5 10 20 26
18 HOU   4- 5___-18.50_____ 24 30 12 28 -- 16 7 10 21 3
19 BAL   6- 4___-22.00_____ 21 20 26 32 29 28 -- 17 10 17 21
20 CLE   6- 3___-23.00_____ 23 28 21 30 32 17 -- 21 19 31
21 PIT   6- 4___-24.00_____ 20 26 31 18 10 19 -- 19 32 20 27
22 MIN   4- 5___-30.50_____ 15 29 32 24 -- 5 23 14 9 12
23  NO   4- 5___-33.00_____ 22 32 14 26 -- 29 20 7 9 6
24 WAS   3- 6___-35.00_____ 31 28 7 -- 18 3 16 8 1 22
25 CHI   3- 6___-46.50_____ 6 27 29 -- 12 14 26 13 5 14
26 CAR   4- 7___-55.50_____ 32 9 25 17 -- 21 19 17 14 8 23 3
27 NYJ   2- 8___-66.00_____ 30 21 -- 14 25 9 11 2 5 12 4
28 TEN   2- 7___-84.00_____ 4 31 -- 7 17 10 20 24 18 19
29 ATL   3- 6___-96.00_____ 23 32 32 -- 17 22 16 25 19 9
30 OAK   0- 9___-104.50_____ -- 27 18 5 13 11 1 20 8 2
31 JAC   1- 9___-120.50_____ 20 -- 3 24 10 11 21 28 13 17 7
32  TB   1- 8___-170.50_____ 21 -- 26 15 29 23 19 22 20 29
 
For Carolina and Cincinnati (who tied) I gave them both a win and a loss against each other. Some point totals include half a point. This is because the iteration usually (pseudo) converges very quickly to a degeneracy between two states. When this happens I use the average of the two point totals.
 
A couple of things stick out a bit. The Rams and Giants have had tough schedules. The AFC North hasn't.

 

[dcmissle]

 
 
 
B & C for me as well.

Make that three. But these injuries make everything ephemeral. It's like SF and Sea are in a race to bottom.

 

[alydar]

 
 
A long time ago I wrote some code that ranks teams simply by who-beat-whom. The way it works is:
(1) rank teams 1 - 32 by win %
(2) going through each team's schedule, award them 1 pt if the beat the 32nd ranked team, 2 pts if they beat the 31st, 3 pts for the 30th... 31 pts if they beat the 2nd ranked team, and 32 points if they beat the top-ranked team, -1 pt for losing to the 1st ranked team, -2 pts for losing to the 2nd ranked team... -32 pts for losing to the 32nd ranked team.
(3) re-rank teams 1 - 32 by pts.
(4) if any team's ranking has changed, return to step (2).
 
I don't usually share the results because they are of limited use, but it does speak a little to the "best resume so far" question. The table shows rank, team, record, total points after iteration converges, a list of the ranks of the teams they beat -- lost to. NFC teams in bold.
 
 
 1 ARI   8- 1___150.00_____ 11 16 6 24 30 3 7 15 -- 2
 2 DEN   7- 2___129.50_____ 10 4 1 27 6 11 30 -- 8 5
 3 PHI   7- 2___84.00_____ 31 10 24 15 16 18 26 -- 6 1
 4  KC   6- 3___79.50_____ 13 5 11 15 27 12 -- 28 2 6
 5  NE   7- 2___79.00_____ 22 30 17 12 27 25 2 -- 13 4
 6  SF   5- 4___70.00_____ 7 3 4 15 23 -- 25 1 2 15
 7 DAL   7- 3___61.00_____ 28 15 23 18 8 16 31 -- 6 24 1
 8 SEA   6- 3___53.00_____ 14 2 24 26 30 16 -- 11 7 15
 9 DET   7- 2___49.00_____ 16 14 27 22 23 29 13 -- 26 12
10 IND   6- 3___43.50_____ 31 28 19 18 17 16 -- 2 3 21
11  SD   5- 4___37.00_____ 8 12 31 27 30 -- 1 4 2 13
12 BUF   5- 4___31.50_____ 25 13 9 22 27 -- 11 18 5 4
13 MIA   5- 4___24.50_____ 5 30 25 31 11 -- 12 4 14 9
14  GB   6- 3___20.00_____ 27 25 22 13 26 25 -- 8 9 23
15 STL   3- 6___10.00_____ 32 8 6 -- 22 7 3 6 4 1
16 NYG   3- 6___-10.00_____ 18 24 29 -- 9 1 3 7 10 8
17 CIN   6- 4___-14.50_____ 19 29 28 26 19 31 -- 5 10 20 26
18 HOU   4- 5___-18.50_____ 24 30 12 28 -- 16 7 10 21 3
19 BAL   6- 4___-22.00_____ 21 20 26 32 29 28 -- 17 10 17 21
20 CLE   6- 3___-23.00_____ 23 28 21 30 32 17 -- 21 19 31
21 PIT   6- 4___-24.00_____ 20 26 31 18 10 19 -- 19 32 20 27
22 MIN   4- 5___-30.50_____ 15 29 32 24 -- 5 23 14 9 12
23  NO   4- 5___-33.00_____ 22 32 14 26 -- 29 20 7 9 6
24 WAS   3- 6___-35.00_____ 31 28 7 -- 18 3 16 8 1 22
25 CHI   3- 6___-46.50_____ 6 27 29 -- 12 14 26 13 5 14
26 CAR   4- 7___-55.50_____ 32 9 25 17 -- 21 19 17 14 8 23 3
27 NYJ   2- 8___-66.00_____ 30 21 -- 14 25 9 11 2 5 12 4
28 TEN   2- 7___-84.00_____ 4 31 -- 7 17 10 20 24 18 19
29 ATL   3- 6___-96.00_____ 23 32 32 -- 17 22 16 25 19 9
30 OAK   0- 9___-104.50_____ -- 27 18 5 13 11 1 20 8 2
31 JAC   1- 9___-120.50_____ 20 -- 3 24 10 11 21 28 13 17 7
32  TB   1- 8___-170.50_____ 21 -- 26 15 29 23 19 22 20 29
 
For Carolina and Cincinnati (who tied) I gave them both a win and a loss against each other. Some point totals include half a point. This is because the iteration usually (pseudo) converges very quickly to a degeneracy between two states. When this happens I use the average of the two point totals.
 
A couple of things stick out a bit. The Rams and Giants have had tough schedules. The AFC North hasn't.
 

Very interesting, thanks for posting. Have you ever tried starting the simulation with the teams randomly ranked instead of ranked by record? My guess is it would converge to a similar result.

 

[dbn]

Very interesting, thanks for posting. Have you ever tried starting the simulation with the teams randomly ranked instead of ranked by record? My guess is it would converge to a similar result.

 
Yes and yes.

 

[DanoooME]

7 teams for 5 spots in the NFC (plus whoever stumbles into the NFC South title - would be funny if it was Tampa Bay at 6-10 or something)
 
1. Arizona 9-1
2. Detroit 7-3
3. Dallas 7-3
4. Green Bay 7-3
5. Philadelphia 7-3
6. Seattle 6-4
7. San Francisco 6-4 
 
 
8. St. Louis 4-6
9. New Orleans 4-6
10. Chicago 4-6
11. Minnesota 4-6
12. Atlanta 4-6
13. Carolina 3-7-1
14. New York Giants 3-7
15. Tampa Bay 2-8
16. Washington 3-7

 

[Stitch01]

1) GB
2) Ari
3) Det
4),sea
5) phi
6) dal
7) SF
8) NO
9) SL

 

[Stitch01]

n/m I cant do addition

 

[coremiller]

None of the NFC teams really stand out from each other, so I think it comes down to matchups.  Green Bay is explosive and in the best form right now but they always struggle with physical teams with strong defensive fronts that can push them around -- SF, Seattle, Detroit, Arizona would be bad matchups for them.  2 through 6 is a mess.  I don't trust Sanchez or Stanton at all against a good defense, and even putting the QBs aside both Philly and Arizona have been riding the positive variance wave for a long time and are due for some regression.  
 
I probably have SF too high given how inconsistent they've been, but they beat Dallas and Philly pretty convincingly this season, have a tendency to play up or down to the level of their competition, and it's not like any of the other teams besides GB have been playing very well lately (except AZ, who I don't like at all).  Would you want to bet on Drew Stanton against SF or Seattle on a neutral field right now?  I wouldn't.
 
1) Green Bay.  Big favorite for the #1 seed given how easy their remaining schedule is compared to the other contenders (@Minn, NE, Atl, @Buff, @TB, Det).  They have only two tough games left (NE and DET), and both are at home.
2) [SIZE=14.4444446563721px]SF[/SIZE]
3) [SIZE=14.4444446563721px]Seattle[/SIZE]
4) Dallas
5) [SIZE=14.4444446563721px]Arizona -- would be higher (2nd?) with Palmer.  Their remaining schedule is very tough: @SEA, @Atl, KC, @Stl, SEA, @SF.  They are 9-1 now and I would be pretty surprised if they win more than two of their last six games, although even two wins is still probably enough to win the division. [/SIZE]
6) Detroit.
7) Philly (would be higher with Foles)
8) St Louis
9) NO

 

[Dgilpin]

None of the NFC teams really stand out from each other, so I think it comes down to matchups.  Green Bay is explosive and in the best form right now but they always struggle with physical teams with strong defensive fronts that can push them around -- SF, Seattle, Detroit, Arizona would be bad matchups for them.  2 through 6 is a mess.  I don't trust Sanchez or Stanton at all against a good defense, and even putting the QBs aside both Philly and Arizona have been riding the positive variance wave for a long time and are due for some regression.  
 
I probably have SF too high given how inconsistent they've been, but they beat Dallas and Philly pretty convincingly this season, have a tendency to play up or down to the level of their competition, and it's not like any of the other teams besides GB have been playing very well lately (except AZ, who I don't like at all).  Would you want to bet on Drew Stanton against SF or Seattle on a neutral field right now?  I wouldn't.
 
1) Green Bay.  Big favorite for the #1 seed given how easy their remaining schedule is compared to the other contenders (@Minn, NE, Atl, @Buff, @TB, Det).  They have only two tough games left (NE and DET), and both are at home.
2) [SIZE=14.4444446563721px]SF[/SIZE]
3) [SIZE=14.4444446563721px]Seattle[/SIZE]
4) Dallas
5) [SIZE=14.4444446563721px]Arizona -- would be higher (2nd?) with Palmer.  Their remaining schedule is very tough: @SEA, @Atl, KC, @Stl, SEA, @SF.  They are 9-1 now and I would be pretty surprised if they win more than two of their last six games, although even two wins is still probably enough to win the division. [/SIZE]
6) Detroit.
7) Philly (would be higher with Foles)
8) St Louis
9) NO

 
 
Not that I Detroit will get the 1 seed, but their remaining schedule is just as if not more favorable than GB's (@NE, Chi(2x), TB, Min, @GB)
 
1. Arizona
2. Green Bay
3. Detroit
4. Dallas
5. Philly
6. Seattle
7. SF
8. New Orleans
9. St. Louis
10. Chicago
11. Atlanta
12. NY Giants
13. Minnesota
14. Carolina
15. Washington
16. TB