Ranking the Most Painful Red Sox to Trade: Position Player Edition

[Cassvt2023]

I’ll do my top 10, in order of which would be most painful for me and why.

1) Campbell- The Mookie like rise and the hard hit tool just seems like he could be special.
2) Anthony- It’s hard to get to be the #1 prospect in baseball and kinda dominate your first taste of AAA at 20
3) Duran- Has already shown he can do many things at ML level and is now a game changer on both sides of the ball
4) Teel- It’s such a difficult position to develop. He seems to be in the mold of athletic for position which is nice for lineup
5) Casas- The plate discipline and power potential are there. 1B is an easier position to fill and there are the weird injuries
6) Montgomery- Possibly a top 5 pick if he was healthy, switch hitter, maybe prototype Fenway RF. But no pro at bats yet
7) Mayer- Some of the shine has worn off. A huge year for him to see if he can stay on the field. Will it be with Sox org?
8) Arias- Is still growing into his body at 18, showed some surprising pop, and looks like he’ll stay at SS
9) Abreu- A solid big league player, but will he get exposed against LAP if he plays every day. And will his D stay elite?
10) Bleis- All the tools are there, but it’s been underwhelming and frustrating to not see him live up to the hype

 

[joe dokes]

This is "painful," rather than analytically rational, so...
I have Casas at the top. Not only has he shown a great ability to hit, but I think he, unlike Devers or Duran (and this is *not* a knock on either of them) is embracing the idea of being the face of the franchise. Or at least its mouth. If he was a middling talent, that he is a different breed of baseball cat wouldn't move the needle for me. But he isn't, so it does.

 

[cantor44]

I really hate to see any of Campbell, Anthony, Duran, Teel, Montgomery, Mayer go ... Maybe in this order: Campbell, Anthony, Duran, Mayer Teel, Montgomery
I think Casas and Abreu would be hard to say bye to, but that they might bet back something real nice. And I'm not sold yet on Casas tbh.

 

[Mugsy's Jock]

Is there some reason I’m missing that Devers isn’t included?

 

[Mike Thomas 802]

Is there some reason I’m missing that Devers isn’t included?

At $29.3 million a year through 2033 can you trade him? I like Devers a lot but the only way the Red Sox get out from under our 30 million dollar (should be*)DH is by stapling cash and young talent to him ala David Price. It would be an entirely different sort of "Painful".

* I see no reason to move him off 3rd just yet, certainly not for any of the proposed 'solutions' that include a move to 1st, an expensive older FA and shipping out Casas for below market value.

**I would love to see a TB12/ LeBron James/ James Harrison level of investment in off season body improvement... but I don't expect that will happen, so DH it soon will be.

 

[chrisfont9]

I really hate to see any of Campbell, Anthony, Duran, Teel, Montgomery, Mayer go ... Maybe in this order: Campbell, Anthony, Duran, Mayer Teel, Montgomery
I think Casas and Abreu would be hard to say bye to, but that they might bet back something real nice. And I'm not sold yet on Casas tbh.

This is more like mine, except maybe flipping Campbell and Anthony. Anthony will likely hit a HR in Fenway before he can legally drink. Maybe a lot of them.

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

I thought this was a historical thread.
Mookie.
Not sure who would be 2nd…

 

[BaseballJones]

At $29.3 million a year through 2033 can you trade him? I like Devers a lot but the only way the Red Sox get out from under our 30 million dollar (should be*)DH is by stapling cash and young talent to him ala David Price.

This seems crazy to me. As MLB contracts continue to rise rapidly, it won’t be long before Devers’ contract is not only completely reasonable, but maybe even a bargain. Dude is massively productive and is young. They wouldn’t need to staple anything to him to move him.

 

[BeantownIdaho]

I thought this was a historical thread.
Mookie.
Not sure who would be 2nd…

Fred Lynn... I was very devastated in 1981 when my favorite boyhood player was traded to the angels. It also broke up the best outfield in baseball - Rice, Lynn, Evans.

 

[ZMart100]

I don't think Devers' contract is underwater at all. I think he'd do better than what he has if he was on the open market.

 

[BaseballJones]

I don't think Devers' contract is underwater at all. I think he'd do better than what he has if he was on the open market.

Right now, based on FanGraphs' data, one WAR is worth about $8 million.

Devers was worth 4.1 WAR according to FanGraphs (I usually use B-Ref, but since I'm using FG's WAR value, I'm using their WAR numbers) this past season. He's averaged 4.2 fWAR over his last four seasons, but let's just go with 4.1.

4.1 x $8m = $32.8 million

He's getting $29.5 million this year, in 2025, and in 2026. Then it bumps to $33 million for 2027-2029, then back down to $31 million for 2031-3033. Obviously both (a) the value of a WAR will go up, and (b) his performance should decline at that point.

But right now, he's got like $3.3 million of surplus value going for him. He'd do very well in the open market. He's in his prime, having just turned 28. He'd get more than what he's making now, I think. Certainly his contract is not a problem for Boston at all.

 

[Otis Foster]

NM. Wrong thread.

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

Mookie. Nothing remotely close behind him

Probably a good thread.
Who- besides Mookie was the 2nd most painful trade in Sox history? Obviously Ruth but in my lifetime- Bagwell or Lynn.

 

[phineas gage]

It wasn't a trade, but losing Fisk is still the worst on my list. Mailing out the contract late--what a clown show.

It may not be perfect now in terms of Red Sox management, but it is a lot better than back then.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Probably a good thread.
Who- besides Mookie was the 2nd most painful trade in Sox history? Obviously Ruth but in my lifetime- Bagwell or Lynn.

Bagwell was painful in terms of being on the wrong side of a trade in retrospect (the one that got away, if you will), but I'm not sure it is on par with things like Ruth, Mookie, or Lynn as far as pain/heartache inflicted on the fan base as a whole. Even the most casual Sox fans knew and loved Mookie and Lynn when they were traded. Only the hardest of hardcore fans knew who Bagwell was when he was traded and even then, most of them only knew his name. They hadn't seen him play. There was no real attachment.

 

[Sin Duda]

My son was 6 years old and already a diehard Sox fan living in Austin. He had met Nomar (and Mia) and had an animated conversation with him the winter before the 2004 season about using Nomar in his Backyard Baseball game. That July, it broke my heart to come up to my son's bedroom to read him to sleep when I had to tell him the Sox had traded Nomar. My son spasmed out of bed, screamed "No!" and cried fitfully for over 2 minutes. Talk about wounding a fanbase. Not good times.

 

[SuperDieHard]

It wasn't a trade, but losing Fisk is still the worst on my list. Mailing out the contract late--what a clown show.

It may not be perfect now in terms of Red Sox management, but it is a lot better than back then.

Mets did something similar with Seaver- just plain dumb….

 

[TheDogMan]

This is "painful," rather than analytically rational, so...
I have Casas at the top. Not only has he shown a great ability to hit, but I think he, unlike Devers or Duran (and this is *not* a knock on either of them) is embracing the idea of being the face of the franchise. Or at least its mouth. If he was a middling talent, that he is a different breed of baseball cat wouldn't move the needle for me. But he isn't, so it does.

I do not know about Face of the Franchise. I do see him as being baseballs' answer to the late Bill Walton. I really enjoy him when he grabs the microphone. Just a fun guy to cheer for.

 

[jon abbey]

I do see him as being baseballs' answer to the late Bill Walton.

Pretty sure that was Bill Lee, or Mark Fidrych, or even Dock Ellis.

 

[Ale Xander]

1. Devers
2. Anthony
3. Mayer
4. Rafaela
5. Teel
6. Casas
7. Campbell




8. Abreu
9. Romero
10. Zanatello

 

[TheDogMan]

Pretty sure that was Bill Lee, or Mark Fidrych, or even Dock Ellis.

Dock Ellis had bigger demons. I really enjoy Casas.

 

[jercra]

I have to admit that I'm a bit surprised to not see Rafaela on anyone's list. Granted, his plate discipline was bad, but it was his first year in the ML and he was able to flip pretty seamlessly between elite CF and passable SS, which is kind of a crazy combination defensively. He's got speed and showed plenty of power in the minors. There's a lot of guys on these lists that never seen an ML pitch and could well flame out as soon as they do. Is the bloom that far off the rose on him after one year in the bigs?

 

[Cassvt2023]

I have to admit that I'm a bit surprised to not see Rafaela on anyone's list. Granted, his plate discipline was bad, but it was his first year in the ML and he was able to flip pretty seamlessly between elite CF and passable SS, which is kind of a crazy combination defensively. He's got speed and showed plenty of power in the minors. There's a lot of guys on these lists that never seen an ML pitch and could well flame out as soon as they do. Is the bloom that far off the rose on him after one year in the bigs?

It's a great point and I love watching him play, even with the at bats where he swings at everything. I hope he gains some more plate discipline. I started this thread, and if I had to rethink my list, I would definitely put Rafaela in my top 10, replacing either Arias or Bleis.

 

[Otis Foster]

"Is the bloom that far off the rose on him after one year in the bigs? "

I saw what you did.

 

[brownsox]

Listing only guys who have real trade value. I think Devers’s contract will make him more or less untradeable. Rafaela’s might, but I included him here anyway.

I also factored in whether I thought we would get adequate value in return - Braden Montgomery is a better prospect than Chase Meidroth, and Meidroth has trade value, but he might not fetch much more than a middle reliever and I think he’s worth more than that, whereas if Montgomery were traded I’m confident we’d get a return I’d be happy with. Finally, I

1. Mayer. I think the injuries, which are a real concern, have contributed to some losing sight of how good a prospect he is and how much potential he has. I have him as most painful not only because he’s a potential star, but a shortstop - if he goes, “replacing” him will be real difficult.

2. Campbell. Someone above compared his meteoric rise to Betts’s, which resonates. He just seems like he really might be a unicorn.

3. Anthony. He is the best prospect in baseball, but I have him below Mayer and Campbell because he might “just” be a bopper who ends up as a corner outfielder. He might be one of the very best in baseball, but there are plenty of power hitters who play right field. Still, it would be really painful to lose a guy who slashed just under .300/.400/.500 in the high minors at 20.

4. Casas. He, too, is just a bopper - with less speed and worse defense than Anthony - but he’s done the thing in MLB and I just like him as a player and personality, and what’s the point of these lists if you can’t pick players you like.

5. Teel. He is kind of a unicorn himself as a hit-over-power catcher and there aren’t many like him in baseball. It’s not easy for teams to upgrade at catcher. As I write this I keep thinking I should have him over Casas, but I just like Casas.

6. Meidroth. Just a player I really like and want to root for, but I also think that although he has some trade value he doesn’t have a lot of trade value and he’s worth more to us than most other clubs. I just don’t see us getting a return for him that would make me feel good about trading him.

7. Duran. This is the opposite, somewhat. Love watching Duran (when he’s not yelling slurs at fans) and he had a fantastic season in 2024. So good, in fact, that I would be surprised if he ever had as good a season again, and think he’s likely at the peak of his value now. And he’s also older than the guys listed above him, may be falling out of prime in a few years. I don’t really see the point of trading him since we should be trying to acquire more mid-prime stars rather than fewer. But if we did trade him I think we would get an excellent return.

8. Abreu. Abreu is a good player, above-average offense and very good defense, under team control for a long time. He’s also going to be 26 this year, and has what Bill James called old player’s skills (power and patience, but OK speed and mediocre hit tool). Moreover, I think he has real value; maybe he’s not a headliner for Crochet, but if he gets traded we’re getting something significant in return. I may not love that but I can certainly live with it.

9. Rafaela. I think it’s easy to get too negative about Rafaela, who is actually a pretty useful MLB player - elite defense at key positions, speed, some power. I think it’s pretty likely his ceiling will be limited by his complete lack of plate discipline, but he has a high floor, he could be really good if his plate discipline improves at all, and when he’s not frustrating to watch he is fun to watch!

10. Johanfran Garcia. Just one of a bunch of minor league bats (Montgomery, Cespedes, Romero, his brother the Password) I find interesting. I picked him because he might be able to stick at catcher, in which case he is *very* interesting, and he looked last spring like someone who might be able to really hit. He’s a long way from realizing his potential, but that potential is very, very high if he can stay a catcher.

11-15 probably Grissom, Montgomery, Cespedes, Romero, Password.

 

[Fishy1]

I'm not gonna make a list right now, but thought this might be interesting to all who are putting Abreu at the bottom of their list. It's Red Sox position player rookie seasons by fWAR since 1960.

That top 15 is pretty rarefied air. Only a couple bustouts in the group.

 

[brownsox]

I'm not gonna make a list right now, but thought this might be interesting to all who are putting Abreu at the bottom of their list. It's Red Sox position player rookie seasons by fWAR since 1960.

That top 15 is pretty rarefied air. Only a couple bustouts in the group.

I think the thing is that of those players, only a handful - Jody Reed, Dave Stapleton, Brian Daubach, Brock Holt, Kevin Youkilis, Travis Shaw, David Hamilton, and Bobby Dalbec - were as old or older than Abreu during those rookie seasons.

Mostly good players, like Abreu. But other than Youkilis and Reed, none especially painful to trade, IMO.

 

[RobertsSteal]

I have to admit that I'm a bit surprised to not see Rafaela on anyone's list. Granted, his plate discipline was bad, but it was his first year in the ML and he was able to flip pretty seamlessly between elite CF and passable SS, which is kind of a crazy combination defensively. He's got speed and showed plenty of power in the minors. There's a lot of guys on these lists that never seen an ML pitch and could well flame out as soon as they do. Is the bloom that far off the rose on him after one year in the bigs?

My dream scenario for Rafaela is for him to turn into 80% of Alfonso Soriano offensively while retaining the great D.
I remember Soriano coming up and thinking, “Holy shit we’re in trouble!” He never became a dominant force like I thought he would, but man, what a scary offensive player he was!

 

[DaubachmanTurnerOD]

I think my list starts with Anthony and Campbell, based on the evergreen hope/optimisim/shiny new thing! that accompanies top prospects.

Then I think Casas, also based only tangentially on baseball reasons. He just seems like a personality that would be fun to have on the team for a while (based mostly on the fact that he paints his fingernails, I think...now that I realize I have not really heard him speak or read anything about him...)

Mayer, for me, doesn't have that same prospect shine, mostly due to injuries and also probably colored too much by the Fangraphs prospect guy, who thinks Mayer suffers from a stiff lower half that will give him problems with stuff down in the zone - an issue he also noted Torkelson and some others have.

 

[simplicio]

Then I think Casas, also based only tangentially on baseball reasons. He just seems like a personality that would be fun to have on the team for a while (based mostly on the fact that he paints his fingernails, I think...now that I realize I have not really heard him speak or read anything about him...)

Oh man, buckle up.
View: https://youtu.be/OBUBPqZ3fYE?si=qYXOzifjiMTkZ0gO

 

[Hee Sox Choi]

And this one (Dom trying to hold it together is the best):
https://nesn.com/video/red-sox-first-baseman-triston-casas-interviews-first-baseman-dominic-smith/

 

[DaubachmanTurnerOD]

Oh man, buckle up.

Haha. That was amazing - just an incredible stream of consciousness. Great story about his dad, throwing Gammo under the bus about the red seat... Thank you Simplicio!

Alright, I'm going to amend my list and put Casas at the top.

 

[DaubachmanTurnerOD]

And this one (Dom trying to hold it together is the best):
https://nesn.com/video/red-sox-first-baseman-triston-casas-interviews-first-baseman-dominic-smith/

Yes! Thank you HSC! Yeah, Dom is cracking up before the clip even begins...haha.

 

[brownsox]

Mayer, for me, doesn't have that same prospect shine, mostly due to injuries and also probably colored too much by the Fangraphs prospect guy, who thinks Mayer suffers from a stiff lower half that will give him problems with stuff down in the zone - an issue he also noted Torkelson and some others have.

FWIW, Longenhagen has changed his tune a little bit on Mayer, citing his high hard-hit rate and defensive improvement.

 

[Hee Sox Choi]

FG tl;dr:

“I’m inclined to give Holliday lots of room to breathe on this stuff (I didn’t give a dinged-up Marcelo Mayer much leeway last year, which looks like the wrong decision now)”

“I’ll admit to being swayed by Marcelo Mayer’s hit data so far this season, which includes a really impressive 50% hard-hit rate. I also revisited his defense on tape, and since it has continued to trend in a positive direction, he moved up in this update.”

 

[TheDogMan]

Listing only guys who have real trade value. I think Devers’s contract will make him more or less untradeable. Rafaela’s might, but I included him here anyway.

I also factored in whether I thought we would get adequate value in return - Braden Montgomery is a better prospect than Chase Meidroth, and Meidroth has trade value, but he might not fetch much more than a middle reliever and I think he’s worth more than that, whereas if Montgomery were traded I’m confident we’d get a return I’d be happy with. Finally, I

1. Mayer. I think the injuries, which are a real concern, have contributed to some losing sight of how good a prospect he is and how much potential he has. I have him as most painful not only because he’s a potential star, but a shortstop - if he goes, “replacing” him will be real difficult.

2. Campbell. Someone above compared his meteoric rise to Betts’s, which resonates. He just seems like he really might be a unicorn.

3. Anthony. He is the best prospect in baseball, but I have him below Mayer and Campbell because he might “just” be a bopper who ends up as a corner outfielder. He might be one of the very best in baseball, but there are plenty of power hitters who play right field. Still, it would be really painful to lose a guy who slashed just under .300/.400/.500 in the high minors at 20.

4. Casas. He, too, is just a bopper - with less speed and worse defense than Anthony - but he’s done the thing in MLB and I just like him as a player and personality, and what’s the point of these lists if you can’t pick players you like.

5. Teel. He is kind of a unicorn himself as a hit-over-power catcher and there aren’t many like him in baseball. It’s not easy for teams to upgrade at catcher. As I write this I keep thinking I should have him over Casas, but I just like Casas.

6. Meidroth. Just a player I really like and want to root for, but I also think that although he has some trade value he doesn’t have a lot of trade value and he’s worth more to us than most other clubs. I just don’t see us getting a return for him that would make me feel good about trading him.

7. Duran. This is the opposite, somewhat. Love watching Duran (when he’s not yelling slurs at fans) and he had a fantastic season in 2024. So good, in fact, that I would be surprised if he ever had as good a season again, and think he’s likely at the peak of his value now. And he’s also older than the guys listed above him, may be falling out of prime in a few years. I don’t really see the point of trading him since we should be trying to acquire more mid-prime stars rather than fewer. But if we did trade him I think we would get an excellent return.

8. Abreu. Abreu is a good player, above-average offense and very good defense, under team control for a long time. He’s also going to be 26 this year, and has what Bill James called old player’s skills (power and patience, but OK speed and mediocre hit tool). Moreover, I think he has real value; maybe he’s not a headliner for Crochet, but if he gets traded we’re getting something significant in return. I may not love that but I can certainly live with it.

9. Rafaela. I think it’s easy to get too negative about Rafaela, who is actually a pretty useful MLB player - elite defense at key positions, speed, some power. I think it’s pretty likely his ceiling will be limited by his complete lack of plate discipline, but he has a high floor, he could be really good if his plate discipline improves at all, and when he’s not frustrating to watch he is fun to watch!

10. Johanfran Garcia. Just one of a bunch of minor league bats (Montgomery, Cespedes, Romero, his brother the Password) I find interesting. I picked him because he might be able to stick at catcher, in which case he is *very* interesting, and he looked last spring like someone who might be able to really hit. He’s a long way from realizing his potential, but that potential is very, very high if he can stay a catcher.

11-15 probably Grissom, Montgomery, Cespedes, Romero, Password.

For me Anthony is 1 I swapMeidroth to 9th and move guts down 1 spot. I also switch Abreu and Rafaella due to the left/ right conundrum. It is nice to see Boston eith so much controllable talent.

 

[EdRalphRomero]

I think folks are underrating Mayer. Yeah the back stuff might get him and I respect folks like Middlebrook’s perspective. But I am betting he can find a way to work through it. Guy has the potential to be a middle of the order SS. Only player I feel confident in listing above him is Anthony. Sure lower floors on lots of these guys, but his ceiling is very high.

 

[DaubachmanTurnerOD]

That’s great to hear about Longenhagen - thanks brownsox and HSC!

 

[sezwho]

Casas. I’m a prospect leg humper but Casas is what I was waiting for. 1B was rough for years prior to his arrival, if it’s easy to fill they sure made it look hard.

 

[bressoud]

My dream scenario for Rafaela is for him to turn into 80% of Alfonso Soriano offensively while retaining the great D.
I remember Soriano coming up and thinking, “Holy shit we’re in trouble!” He never became a dominant force like I thought he would, but man, what a scary offensive player he was!

Fellas, I missed this thread. I'm cranky; I want something to happen. Then I read BrownSox's meaty justification for his list, Simplico's "oh man, buckle up" admonition for the Casas interview ("hablando mucho", indeed) and I just feel better. SOSH is unmatched.
I'm struck by the OBP skills of these prospects, including Casas and Abreu: Campbell .439, Meidroth .437, Anthony .396, Teel .374, Mayer .370....I believe this one skill is highly indicative of future success, so I'm drooling about the future.
And, I would not want to be the guy who has to decide who to keep and who to deal.

 

[Big Papi's Mango Salsa]

Tier one
1) Devers. He is the best hitter on the team and I don't think it's close, and he is still only going to be 28. I just hope they find a way to move him to DH.
2) Anthony. No prospect is a "sure thing" but there is literally nothing to dislike in his profile beyond "but he hasn't done it against MLB pitching."
3) Duran. I don't think he's going to put up the kind of year he did last year, but I think he's even better than what we saw in 2023. A 4.5 bWAR guy is roughly my projection on him for his prime years, and the Sox control all of them without even having to give him a single FA dollar. That is incredibly valuable.

Tier two
4) Campbell. They need pieces that can hit LHP. At least he can hit minor league LHP, so that is something.
5) Casas. So much talent, good production and lots of control. If I didn't have concerns about his injury history, he'd be 3rd, but I do.
6) Rafaela. Good contract, good player, good minor league track record. I think a solid plan to back up SS is necessary.
7) Teel. Has all the pedigree and minor league performance one would want, and I believe he's reported to be a solid defensive catcher (I'm taking Sox Prospects at their word).

Tier three
8) Grissom. I've always liked the player, so a personal binky. That said, if I could move him for pieces like those mentioned below, I'd do it in a second.
9) Abreu. Solid player. Good bat and good defender. Can't hit LHPs which limits his value, but I'd want something really good to move him. Similar to Grissom, I'd have no problems putting him in a package deal with anything else in the system to acquire impact talent with multiple years remaining.

Tier four
10) Mayer. I think the "market value" exceeds the actual value due to his injury concern and inability to hit LHPs at the upper levels of the minors. So while I think he's going to be good, I don't think he's going to live up to his "top 5 prospect in the game" ranking or wherever he is. I'd be actively trying to move him for the type of pieces below before anyone above him on the list.

It's a team at the MLB level that is really deep, but really lacks high end talent, has a lot of redundancy (LHH that can't hit LHP), even through the organization, are just atrocious contracts or need a platoon partner and unfortunately MLB hasn't allowed the Red Sox to carry like 8 extra players on their active roster than all other MLB teams..



Which doesn't mean they "stink", to be clear, but the first three tiers are the only ones I'd feel real hesitation about moving in a reasonable deal (ie, no, I don't want to deal Mayer for Arenado, but I do for Crochet / Seattle starter X / impact bat).

 

[brownsox]

Tier four
10) Mayer. I think the "market value" exceeds the actual value due to his injury concern and inability to hit LHPs at the upper levels of the minors. So while I think he's going to be good, I don't think he's going to live up to his "top 5 prospect in the game" ranking or wherever he is. I'd be actively trying to move him for the type of pieces below before anyone above him on the list.

FWIW, Mayer started out really slow against lefties this year, but wound up hitting .258/.319/.355, which while not exactly impressive, is pretty acceptable for a shortstop, especially one who kills righthanders. In 2023 he was actually better against lefties in AA (in a tiny sample size). He was good against lefty handers in 2022 (small sample size).

He strikes out more against lefties than against right handers, and he hasn’t hit them with much power yet, but I think the perception that he can’t hit lefties is borne out of early struggles in 2024 and is not really accurate overall.

 

[Big Papi's Mango Salsa]

FWIW, Mayer started out really slow against lefties this year, but wound up hitting .258/.319/.355, which while not exactly impressive, is pretty acceptable for a shortstop, especially one who kills righthanders. In 2023 he was actually better against lefties in AA (in a tiny sample size). He was good against lefty handers in 2022 (small sample size).

He strikes out more against lefties than against right handers, and he hasn’t hit them with much power yet, but I think the perception that he can’t hit lefties is borne out of early struggles in 2024 and is not really accurate overall.

Totally fair. Unfortunately so much with Mayer is taking small sample sizes and making them even smaller because he has yet to play 100 games in any season due to injuries each year. We both did it, to be clear. I talked about upper minors and you broke it down further, so I’m not trying to say either of us is right or wrong.

But as someone that believes ”you have to give to get”, when factoring in his struggles against upper minors LHP, and his injury history (and the presence of Story, Rafaela, Campbell, Grissom, Meidroth, Arias and Cespedes, I would still advocate trading Mayer if there is a GM out there that shares your - and plenty other posters - totally reasonable read and projection on him AND has a piece that is also really freaking good.

Would I trade him for Arenado, Helsley, Luzardo, DWilliams or someone of that ilk - zero point zero percent chance.

Would I be TRYING to trade him for someone like Crochet, Gilbert, Kirby, Woo, or an impact bat. Absolutely.

If a trade happened of Mayer for one year of Galen, I’d be pissed, from the other thread, for instance.

Ketel Marte is an interesting “litmus test” for me, based on age and his own somewhat spotty track record of inconsistency, especially defensively. Not that Ari would do it (esp because they have Lawlar), but as a hypothetical, example if I saw a Mayer and Perales for Marte trade happen, I think I’d be pleased, but not overly so (ie, kind of a good baseball trade in that regard). I’d see both sides to that deal.

 

[Fishy1]

I would also note that Devers and Casas both sucked against LHP in the upper minor leagues (sucked pretty much exactly as much as Abreu did, fwiw). They've both sorted that out to different extents.

Part of the reason why I'm still bullish on Abreu and Mayer, if he can stay healthy.

 

[brownsox]

I would also note that Devers and Casas both sucked against LHP in the upper minor leagues (sucked pretty much exactly as much as Abreu did, fwiw). They've both sorted that out to different extents.

Part of the reason why I'm still bullish on Abreu and Mayer, if he can stay healthy.

I would disagree a bit with respect to Devers, especially re “high minors”. Devers hit .282/.370/.423 against lefties in Portland in 2017 and was 3-for-12 across two “seasons” in Pawtucket. Not a ton of power, but he hit lefties quite well in the upper minors to the extent he played in the upper minors. That’s actually essentially what he’s done in the bigs - his career line is .265/.321/.419 against lefties.

Casas certainly did not hit lefties well in Portland or Worcester - he hit .221, with one home run across 140 ABs, BB/K 18/48. He also hasn’t hit lefties especially well in Boston, but he has shown more power and walked more - .227 across 154 ABs, but with seven home runs, 29/59 BB/K. I’d agree that he’s sorted it out to some extent.

Abreu is an interesting case. He had struggles in the low minors with lefties, I don’t have his AA splits with Houston handy. In Worcester in 2023 he was actually pretty good! .258/.333/.455, plus 2 for 7 with a home run last year. Of course, in Boston - in a similar number of plate appearances - he was pretty bad last year, .180/.254/.279. We’ll see if and how he develops.

To your point, I still don’t really get it with respect to Mayer and the “upper minors.” Again, Mayer was basically fine in Portland against lefties? Not a lot of power (at least so far) and strikes out more, but perfectly adequate offense for a shortstop? Had a reverse platoon split in Portland in 2022? Mayer’s injury history is one thing, but I don’t see his “struggles against LHP” as a particular problem yet, in the high minors or elsewhere.

It’s possible Mayer suffers from comparison with Kyle Teel, who was excellent against LHP in Portland, and Roman Anthony, who absolutely devastated lefties in Portland and Worcester.

 

[Big Papi's Mango Salsa]

I would also note that Devers and Casas both sucked against LHP in the upper minor leagues (sucked pretty much exactly as much as Abreu did, fwiw). They've both sorted that out to different extents.

Part of the reason why I'm still bullish on Abreu and Mayer, if he can stay healthy.

No, Devers didn't. Not even close.

He got one shot against upper minors LHPs (2017) and he actually had a reverse split and was .326/.408/.504/.912 against LHPs and .292/.346/.549/.985 against RHPs. https://www.milb.com/player/rafael-devers-646240?stats=splits-r-hitting-mlb&year=2017


Casas you're correct on, of course (and I even brought that up as a reason I'd have been fine trading him - for something really freaking good - prior to the 2023 season). Casas has still been more than fine against LHPs in the majors (.846 OPS vs RHPs and .772 vs LHPs), but I'd have traded version 2022 off-season Casas then for exactly the type of things I'm advocating trading Mayer for now.

Truth be told, the only name that's been lobbed out there (somewhat reasonably) that I wouldn't trade Casas for (that I would Mayer) is Crochet.

However my perception is that right now Casas "market value" is lower than his actual value, which I think is flipped for Mayer - though of course this is based on nothing but BTV values since of course I'm not talking to MLB front offices.



I also want to be clear - none of this is to say that Mayer stinks. Not in the least bit. It's saying that I think he is PERCEIVED in the game similar to how maybe Hanley was (as a prospect), or maybe even Corey Seager (a comp I saw thrown around a lot when he was drafted, not necessarily on this board) and I don't think he's going to be nearly as good as either player. I see him more like a Stephen Drew type career (call it a 3 bWAR player during his prime). Which on the cheap is incredibly valuable, but also I think if he put up those numbers people would say he under-performed.

 

[Fishy1]

I would disagree a bit with respect to Devers, especially re “high minors”. Devers hit .282/.370/.423 against lefties in Portland in 2017 and was 3-for-12 across two “seasons” in Pawtucket. Not a ton of power, but he hit lefties quite well in the upper minors to the extent he played in the upper minors. That’s actually essentially what he’s done in the bigs - his career line is .265/.321/.419 against lefties.

Casas certainly did not hit lefties well in Portland or Worcester - he hit .221, with one home run across 140 ABs, BB/K 18/48. He also hasn’t hit lefties especially well in Boston, but he has shown more power and walked more - .227 across 154 ABs, but with seven home runs, 29/59 BB/K. I’d agree that he’s sorted it out to some extent.

Abreu is an interesting case. He had struggles in the low minors with lefties, I don’t have his AA splits with Houston handy. In Worcester in 2023 he was actually pretty good! .258/.333/.455, plus 2 for 7 with a home run last year. Of course, in Boston - in a similar number of plate appearances - he was pretty bad last year, .180/.254/.279. We’ll see if and how he develops.

To your point, I still don’t really get it with respect to Mayer and the “upper minors.” Again, Mayer was basically fine in Portland against lefties? Not a lot of power (at least so far) and strikes out more, but perfectly adequate offense for a shortstop? Had a reverse platoon split in Portland in 2022? Mayer’s injury history is one thing, but I don’t see his “struggles against LHP” as a particular problem yet, in the high minors or elsewhere.

It’s possible Mayer suffers from comparison with Kyle Teel, who was excellent against LHP in Portland, and Roman Anthony, who absolutely devastated lefties in Portland and Worcester.

Thanks for the correction re: Devers. He was pretty weak against them in 2016. I should have looked it up a little more carefully.

Anyways, my point is just that a lot of the reason people have given for wanting to pack Abreu off is he "can't hit lefties," but I don't think that's certain based on what we've outlined. He's had less than 100 plate appearances against them in the big leagues. He'll get more of a chance against them this year, I imagine.

 

[simplicio]

Devers vs LHP:
2014 DSL: 0.626 OPS
2014GCL: 0.588
2015Gre: 0.652
2016Sal: 0.726
2017 Por: 0.793
2017 Paw: 0.958
2017Bos: 1.074

Pretty clear progression there.

 

[Fishy1]

No, Devers didn't. Not even close.

He got one shot against upper minors LHPs (2017) and he actually had a reverse split and was .326/.408/.504/.912 against LHPs and .292/.346/.549/.985 against RHPs. https://www.milb.com/player/rafael-devers-646240?stats=splits-r-hitting-mlb&year=2017


Casas you're correct on, of course (and I even brought that up as a reason I'd have been fine trading him - for something really freaking good - prior to the 2023 season). Casas has still been more than fine against LHPs in the majors (.846 OPS vs RHPs and .772 vs LHPs), but I'd have traded version 2022 off-season Casas then for exactly the type of things I'm advocating trading Mayer for now.

Truth be told, the only name that's been lobbed out there (somewhat reasonably) that I wouldn't trade Casas for (that I would Mayer) is Crochet.

However my perception is that right now Casas "market value" is lower than his actual value, which I think is flipped for Mayer - though of course this is based on nothing but BTV values since of course I'm not talking to MLB front offices.



I also want to be clear - none of this is to say that Mayer stinks. Not in the least bit. It's saying that I think he is PERCEIVED in the game similar to how maybe Hanley was (as a prospect), or maybe even Corey Seager (a comp I saw thrown around a lot when he was drafted, not necessarily on this board) and I don't think he's going to be nearly as good as either player. I see him more like a Stephen Drew type career (call it a 3 bWAR player during his prime). Which on the cheap is incredibly valuable, but also I think if he put up those numbers people would say he under-performed.

Yeah, someone else got their first. He did struggle in against LHP in the lower minors, which was what I've been thinking of. Regardless, mea culpa.

 

[Big Papi's Mango Salsa]

No worries. He posted that while I was typing - wasn't trying to pile on in any way.

Anyways, my point is just that a lot of the reason people have given for wanting to pack Abreu off is he "can't hit lefties," but I don't think that's certain based on what we've outlined. He's had less than 100 plate appearances against them in the big leagues. He'll get more of a chance against them this year, I imagine.

Not for nothing, but I don't want to "pack Abreu off", nor Mayer. But I also think the type of thing the Red Sox truly are lacking in their organization (top of the rotation starting pitchers, impact bats that don't have platoon splits) are the type of things that you need to pay something really freaking good for. Either in terms of money or pieces in a trade. I think they should try to trade Mayer BECAUSE I think he'd bring back something really good and his value is "inflated" somewhat right now.

Would I rather the Red Sox simply act like the Dodgers and Yankees, make Yoshida a bench bat (or trade him for literally whatever you can get), sign Juan Soto, sign Adames, Fried, and Flaherty, keep the youth and dominate the next 5 years. Yes, obviously.

I just don't think it's at all realistic.