Ranking the #1 Overall Draft Picks in MLB History

[Manramsclan]

http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/12998550/mlb-draft-ranking-best-no-1-overall-draft-picks
 
 
Interesting read. 
 
What is astounding to me is that in the 44 years the draft has been held, the Boston Red Sox have not picked first one time. Not that it matters particularly since the results of this article show that making a successful number one pick in baseball is an inexact science. That said, we're due! We might suck enough this year to FINALLY pick first.
 
I question some of the methodology involved in this. it seems all over the place, but I am interested to hear what other people on the board thought of it.
 
 

 

[BrunanskysSlide]

I'm a huge sucker for lists like this.  But, like you, I always take them with a grain of salt.  I always somewhat expect what I see here: a few "shocking" picks at the bottom of the list to draw in the reader.  I wouldn't put Josh Hamilton near the bottom by any stretch. 1999 wasn't an overly strong draft class: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1999_Major_League_Baseball_Draft  If I remember right, there were also concerns with Beckett's attitude, so neither top prospect was without fault. And, with a talent like that, even if you know of the drug and alcohol history, you have to take the chance.  Did it go well for Tampa?  No.  But, I think it is a sexy/current pick for the writer to throw at the bottom to get the conversation going.  
 
That problem, putting eventual results over the facts that existed at the time of the draft, seems to plague the entire list.  E.g., see Adrian Gonzalez.  The piece seems to agree he was a great first pick, it just didn't pan out for the team that picked him because they did what a lot of teams do...traded a prospect for a need at the time. Based on that he seems to have dropped back to the middle of the pack behind many less talented players.  The funny thing is, the trade they reference for Uggie helped lead them to a World Series victory.  That seems like a win to me...
 
Fun list.  I learned a lot, like Adrian Gonzalez being the only 1st baseman taken first. 

 

[MakMan44]

I think they discounted traded 1st round picks way too much. Still, interesting read. Thanks for sharing 

 

[moondog80]

I think the confusion comes from him attempting to rank how well the pick worked out for the drafting team; Tim Belcher had a nice career, 146 wins, got some Cy Young votes in 1989, obviously he's not the third worst player picked #1.  But the Twins drafted him and didn't sign him, thus the pick the Twins used to get him was among the worst ever in terms of return.

 

[AB in DC]

With all of the trades in the list, it seems like the ranking are too dependent on who the players were traded for -- which is on the GMs as much as the players, if not more.

 

[timlinin8th]

With all of the trades in the list, it seems like the ranking are too dependent on who the players were traded for -- which is on the GMs as much as the players, if not more.

That was exactly the point of the list though - Not ranking the players themselves, but how they were able to impact the team that picked them and if the team making the pick was able to get value from the pick, whether from the player themselves or the team turning that player into valuable acquired assets, or if it was a complete waste for that team.

I actually was pretty surprised at how many number 1s didn't amount to anything for a good number of teams. I expect that going forward more of them will but still.