Rafael Devers has had a strange season so far in 2023, and I thought it might be time someone started a thread to talk about it.
Overall, Devers has not quite been himself this year. He is still hitting bombs, but his OPS+ (111) and wRC+ (108) are at their worst levels since his short 2020 campaign (107 and 108 respectively). In particular, Devers' OBP is suffering at .290, a career low and nearly 70 points off his 2022 mark.
fWAR and bWAR have never quite aligned on Devers, with the former pegging him at a 4-5 win pace over the past two years while the latter rated him closer to the 4 win end of the spectrum. His peak fWAR was his 6.7 win 2019 campaign, while his peak bWAR (also 2019) only reached 5.4. However, both systems agree that he's played at about a 3 win pace this year.
Digging into the statcast data, we can quickly see that Devers' quality of contact is down a smidge but overall still at or around career norms. His exit velocity is right there, his barrel % is the second highest of his career and his hard hit percentage is the highest of his career. His launch angle is up a bit. His xWOBACON and xSLG are the second highest of his career, his xWOBA third highests, and his xBA is a touch lower than normal. Despite all of this, Devers' BABIP is at a career low (.252), down over 60 points vs his career norms.
One obvious area where Devers is struggling in is his BB% (4.8%), which is the worst of his career with only his 5.2% in 2020 coming close.
Compared to last year, Devers is hitting more flyballs (+9%) at the cost of grounders (-2.8%) and line drives (-6%).
He's also become a bit more pull-happy (+8.6%), with oppo% and middle% dropping by 2.7% and 6% respectively.
Pitchers are approaching Devers a bit differently this year, throwing fewer fastballs (-7.2%) and more breaking (+4%) and offspeed (+3.2%) stuff.
One pitch category jumps out as a glaring problem: offspeed pitchers. Devers wOBA and xWOBA vs. fastballs this year is fantastic, up 41 and 55 points respectively. He's been a bit worse against breaking balls, with a wOBA and xWOBA 20 and 22 points lower than last year. Against offspeed pitchers, however, Devers' wOBA and xWOBA are down by 215 and 111 points respectively! He's whiffing more on offspeed pitches (+8.4%) despite whiffing less on breaking balls (-3.9%). Despite Devers' K% only being up a little, his PutAway% (% of 2 strike pitches that result in strikeouts) on offspeed pitches is double what it was last year.
On the plus side, Devers' defense has continued to improve with a flat 0 dWAR on bbref and (tied with 2019 for career high) and .5 on fangraphs (second to 2019).
OK, so what to make of all of that?
If I'm right, what underlying causes might result in Devers seeing offspeed pitches poorly while still picking up breaking balls OK? Maybe someone who knows more about hitting than I do can comment on this.
EDIT: Devers' performance vs specific pitches from best to worst, ranked by wOBA:
Devers was also bad against splitters in 2022, but he only saw 51 of them all year vs 41 in less than two months this year. Last year his whiff (35.7) and K (29.4)%s were bad, but not quite as bad as this year. His xWOBA was still awful at .156. Prior to that, his whiff and especially K% vs splitters was much better 20-35% and 10-20% respectively, and his xWOBA was way higher (~.400 in both '20 and '21, albeit only .262 in '19 when he had a higher whiff and k%).
His performance against the changeup is similar, with whiff and K% up and xWOBA way down, although less dramatically than with the splitter.
I'm not sure how he's getting into trouble with the changeup, but with the splitter I'd bet he's not recognizing it well and thus is swinging at low splitters rather than laying off, resulting in a lot of balls hard hit into the ground and a lot of swings and misses. This pattern started last year, but pitchers are capitalizing on it this year.
Overall, Devers has not quite been himself this year. He is still hitting bombs, but his OPS+ (111) and wRC+ (108) are at their worst levels since his short 2020 campaign (107 and 108 respectively). In particular, Devers' OBP is suffering at .290, a career low and nearly 70 points off his 2022 mark.
fWAR and bWAR have never quite aligned on Devers, with the former pegging him at a 4-5 win pace over the past two years while the latter rated him closer to the 4 win end of the spectrum. His peak fWAR was his 6.7 win 2019 campaign, while his peak bWAR (also 2019) only reached 5.4. However, both systems agree that he's played at about a 3 win pace this year.
Digging into the statcast data, we can quickly see that Devers' quality of contact is down a smidge but overall still at or around career norms. His exit velocity is right there, his barrel % is the second highest of his career and his hard hit percentage is the highest of his career. His launch angle is up a bit. His xWOBACON and xSLG are the second highest of his career, his xWOBA third highests, and his xBA is a touch lower than normal. Despite all of this, Devers' BABIP is at a career low (.252), down over 60 points vs his career norms.
One obvious area where Devers is struggling in is his BB% (4.8%), which is the worst of his career with only his 5.2% in 2020 coming close.
Compared to last year, Devers is hitting more flyballs (+9%) at the cost of grounders (-2.8%) and line drives (-6%).
He's also become a bit more pull-happy (+8.6%), with oppo% and middle% dropping by 2.7% and 6% respectively.
Pitchers are approaching Devers a bit differently this year, throwing fewer fastballs (-7.2%) and more breaking (+4%) and offspeed (+3.2%) stuff.
One pitch category jumps out as a glaring problem: offspeed pitchers. Devers wOBA and xWOBA vs. fastballs this year is fantastic, up 41 and 55 points respectively. He's been a bit worse against breaking balls, with a wOBA and xWOBA 20 and 22 points lower than last year. Against offspeed pitchers, however, Devers' wOBA and xWOBA are down by 215 and 111 points respectively! He's whiffing more on offspeed pitches (+8.4%) despite whiffing less on breaking balls (-3.9%). Despite Devers' K% only being up a little, his PutAway% (% of 2 strike pitches that result in strikeouts) on offspeed pitches is double what it was last year.
On the plus side, Devers' defense has continued to improve with a flat 0 dWAR on bbref and (tied with 2019 for career high) and .5 on fangraphs (second to 2019).
OK, so what to make of all of that?
- Devers' BABIP is way lower than it should be, although changes to his batted ball profile suggest that at least a little bit of this may not be luck. Overall it should improve though.
- There are some causes for concern in the underlying data, particularly his performance against offspeed pitches and, to a lesser extent, in his batted ball profile.
- Devers may be trying too hard to hit homers, and the resulting shift to pulled fly balls over line drives and up the middle contact is causing his aggregate results to suffer. This change could also be impacting his BB%.
- Something is causing Devers to have a hard time picking up offspeed stuff. I don't know if there are sample size concerns, but the magnitude of the effect is so large that I can't help but wonder if something real is going on there. If it's real, then pitchers can throw Devers offspeed stuff in 2 strike counts with impunity, as he is quite likely to whiff on them and if he does put the ball in play his contact results have been terrible. That seems like the kind of problem that will get worse over time if its not corrected.
If I'm right, what underlying causes might result in Devers seeing offspeed pitches poorly while still picking up breaking balls OK? Maybe someone who knows more about hitting than I do can comment on this.
EDIT: Devers' performance vs specific pitches from best to worst, ranked by wOBA:
- Cutter (51 pitches): .560 wOBA/.672 xWOBA
- Sinker (73): .546/.467
- Curve (99): .392/.360
- 4-Seamer (280): .371/.385
- Sweeper (29): .313/.232
- Slider (84): .282/.373
- Changeup (123): .204/.272
- Splitter (41): .000(!!)/.139
Devers was also bad against splitters in 2022, but he only saw 51 of them all year vs 41 in less than two months this year. Last year his whiff (35.7) and K (29.4)%s were bad, but not quite as bad as this year. His xWOBA was still awful at .156. Prior to that, his whiff and especially K% vs splitters was much better 20-35% and 10-20% respectively, and his xWOBA was way higher (~.400 in both '20 and '21, albeit only .262 in '19 when he had a higher whiff and k%).
His performance against the changeup is similar, with whiff and K% up and xWOBA way down, although less dramatically than with the splitter.
I'm not sure how he's getting into trouble with the changeup, but with the splitter I'd bet he's not recognizing it well and thus is swinging at low splitters rather than laying off, resulting in a lot of balls hard hit into the ground and a lot of swings and misses. This pattern started last year, but pitchers are capitalizing on it this year.
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