R1/3: Drake Maye QB UNC (1st Start this week)

[jercra]

I guess I'll never understand that sentiment. How good does the OL need to be for him to not get bad habits? Are we 1 LT away from him being immune from bad habits? Do we need to wait a few weeks next year too for them to prove themselves or will he magically be able to avoid bad habits next year with a bad OL too? Maybe the whole year again? If he develops bad habits by being under pressure, he's not going to succeed in the NFL. If rather know that now than in 3 or 4 years when the OL is good enough that he won't get hurt or scared by playing QB.

 

[Bergs]

I guess I'll never understand that sentiment. How good does the OL need to be for him to not get bad habits? Are we 1 LT away from him being immune from bad habits? Do we need to wait a few weeks next year too for them to prove themselves or will he magically be able to avoid bad habits next year with a bad OL too? Maybe the whole year again? If he develops bad habits by being under pressure, he's not going to succeed in the NFL. If rather know that now than in 3 or 4 years when the OL is good enough that he won't get hurt or scared by playing QB.

It's not black & white.

Try asking the same (-ish) question this way:

"Are we potentially a year away from having some semblance of a competent roster to support letting this guy rip?"

and,

"do we have anything remotely resembling that now?"

To me, a cautious "yes" and a fervent "no" are the answers to those questions.

 

[jercra]

It's not black & white.

Try asking the same (-ish) question this way:

"Are we potentially a year away from having some semblance of a competent roster to support letting this guy rip?"

and,

"do we have anything remotely resembling that now?"

To me, a cautious "yes" and a fervent "no" are the answers to those questions.

Ok, sure, maybe next year we have a great, or at least decent OL, but no one has any idea. There are no great LT in the draft. Great OL don't hit free agency. Even if they get a stud in the draft, he'll be a rookie. Even if they sign the best on the market, he could get hurt. The only thing you know for sure is that you have 4 years (5 if you don't waste a year) of a potential franchise QB on a rookie contract. Wasting that in the hope that you end up with a good OL next year seems crazy to me. There is no evidence that playing in your draft year is good or bad. There are plenty of examples of both playing and sitting working out great. I think Mac Jones broke people. He didn't learn bad habits by being under pressure, he was (and is) just bad. The Jags are 0-4. I live in Jax, literally no one is calling for Mac to play.

To answer your first question more directly, I have no idea and neither does anyone else. The OL could just as easily be worse next year.

 

[Bergs]

The OL could just as easily be worse next year.

I frankly can't imagine a plausible scenario to support that. This might be the worst OL I have ever seen right now.

 

[jercra]

I frankly can't imagine a plausible scenario to support that. This might be the worst OL I have ever seen right now.

Draft a LT early in the draft (above where they should be, based only in what I read here). Don't sign any free agents because they don't want to play here. Draft pick plays like a rookie/gets injured. I mean, it's just as likely they have a terrible OL next year as it is they had one this year. If that's the case, will everyone be good with Maye sitting a second year? I really, really doubt it.

 

[Jimbodandy]

Draft a LT early in the draft (above where they should be, based only in what I read here). Don't sign any free agents because they don't want to play here. Draft pick plays like a rookie/gets injured. I mean, it's just as likely they have a terrible OL next year as it is they had one this year. If that's the case, will everyone be good with Maye sitting a second year? I really, really doubt it.

That's more strawman, man. Nobody is saying to keep Maye stashed for years, burning his ever-so-valuable rookie deal salary.

Anyone who is thinking out loud about putting Drake Maye in right now to "see what we have" is going to find out that what we have is a catastrophic offensive line that can't protect any QB alive, perhaps not any who have ever been alive. You're not going to "see what we have" if Maye rolls out there. You'll see Maye running sideways like Tom Cruise in Mission Impossible 12 and a bunch of stalled drives.

What I'm about to say isn't directed at you in particular, but I really wish that folks would just say "I'm bored with this team. I know how low the ceiling is with Jacoby, so I have zero hope to become unbored by this team. So give me Maye so I have something less boring to look at." That's not my bag, but it's understandable.

 

[jercra]

That's more strawman, man. Nobody is saying to keep Maye stashed for years, burning his ever-so-valuable rookie deal salary.

Anyone who is thinking out loud about putting Drake Maye in right now to "see what we have" is going to find out that what we have is a catastrophic offensive line that can't protect any QB alive, perhaps not any who have ever been alive. You're not going to "see what we have" if Maye rolls out there. You'll see Maye running sideways like Tom Cruise in Mission Impossible 12 and a bunch of stalled drives.

What I'm about to say isn't directed at you in particular, but I really wish that folks would just say "I'm bored with this team. I know how low the ceiling is with Jacoby, so I have zero hope to become unbored by this team. So give me Maye so I have something less boring to look at." That's not my bag, but it's understandable.

That's not what I'm saying at all. What I'm saying is "wait until we have a good OL next year" is wish casting at best. There's no guarantee the line will be better. Hell, it was awful last year and worse this year. My contention is that we have a better player on the team now and we should play him. If the contention is that OL is too bad for him to play this year and it's just as bad next year then why would he play next year.

 

[Silverdude2167]

That's not what I'm saying at all. What I'm saying is "wait until we have a good OL next year" is wish casting at best. There's no guarantee the line will be better. Hell, it was awful last year and worse this year. My contention is that we have a better player on the team now and we should play him. If the contention is that OL is too bad for him to play this year and it's just as bad next year then why would he play next year.

If the line is as bad next year as it is this year Wolf should be fired.

 

[Eddie Jurak]

I guess I'll never understand that sentiment. How good does the OL need to be for him to not get bad habits? Are we 1 LT away from him being immune from bad habits? Do we need to wait a few weeks next year too for them to prove themselves or will he magically be able to avoid bad habits next year with a bad OL too? Maybe the whole year again? If he develops bad habits by being under pressure, he's not going to succeed in the NFL. If rather know that now than in 3 or 4 years when the OL is good enough that he won't get hurt or scared by playing QB.

I think what happens is that he goes out there with a ~50% pressure rate and does not learn to work through his progressions, stand in (or step up in) the pocket to deliver the ball, not to panic and go into freelance mode at the first possible opportunity. Because the team will struggle, he will also learn that he needs to force the ball in (leading to more turnovers) or try to make plays with his legs (which exposes him to additional injury risk).

 

[sezwho]

If the line is as bad next year as it is this year Wolf should be fired.

Yeah, they even eventually fired BB for failing to build up the line in all reality. Wolf won’t get many chances.

The time I would bring Maye in is if I were able to look at the game tape and say there is an actual offense to execute. To me that means that on a semi regular basis there is time to throw and a receiver to hit. We may actually be getting there.

However, if one still doesn't see putting (particularly a young) quarterback in the line of fire behind a shit box offense is mostly a path to Bolivia then I’m not sure there is a debate.

 

[joe dokes]

That's not what I'm saying at all. What I'm saying is "wait until we have a good OL next year" is wish casting at best. There's no guarantee the line will be better. Hell, it was awful last year and worse this year. My contention is that we have a better player on the team now and we should play him. If the contention is that OL is too bad for him to play this year and it's just as bad next year then why would he play next year.

I think the bolded is begging the question of whether Maye is actually a "better player" behind *this* line at this time this year. (There's little doubt that he's a better player in some abstract world or a skills competition)
To answer your other question, he would play next year because (in theory anyway) he will have a year of pro experience (and pro body work) to deal with the OL issues.

The certainty that some people seem to have w/r/t to the benefits to the team and Maye of playing right now is remarkable.

 

[Kenny F'ing Powers]

I guess I'll never understand that sentiment. How good does the OL need to be for him to not get bad habits? Are we 1 LT away from him being immune from bad habits? Do we need to wait a few weeks next year too for them to prove themselves or will he magically be able to avoid bad habits next year with a bad OL too? Maybe the whole year again? If he develops bad habits by being under pressure, he's not going to succeed in the NFL. If rather know that now than in 3 or 4 years when the OL is good enough that he won't get hurt or scared by playing QB.

A few people have made this argument, and I find it incredibly disingenuous.

This offensive line is the worst in football. The pressure numbers are some of the highest in the league, and that's with the Patriots having both the lowest intended air time and lowest average air time. They're purposely throwing it shorter than anyone else in the league, and they still give up a ton of pressure. Brissett has been under pressure the 4th most of all QBs, and the 3 guys above him all have significantly more drop backs.

So, no. I dont think we need some magical line in the sand on when to start Maye. I do think that they need to at least provide a line that doesn't give up the most pressures and the least time to throw despite structuring an offense made for short passes.

 

[Eric Fernsten's Disco Mustache]

What I'm saying is "wait until we have a good OL next year" is wish casting at best. There's no guarantee the line will be better. Hell, it was awful last year and worse this year.

This is a fair challenge to make

Here's the way I think about it, which I don't think falls in the category of wish casting but which doesn't fill in details that I / we don't and can't know yet

By a bunch of metrics the Pats are a bottom-5 pass blocking team (depending on which metric you look at their ranking can shift). They are also a team that is going to have very high draft picks in every round and a ton of cap space next summer.

Now, is it reasonable to think that an NFL front office with a league-average competency at scouting and evaluation-- endowed with high draft picks, tons of cap space, and an owner willing to spend to win-- can move a position of clear importance and need from "bottom 5" to "league average"?

To me, that feels reasonable. Not guaranteed, since bad luck happens to us all. And I can't tell you now exactly what combination of free agent signings and draft picks and internal development gets us there. But it's reasonable to think that with time and the resources we have the OLine should get better.

Now, getting from average to great is often a lot harder. But that's for another time.

 

[cshea]

Maye has a better skill set to play behind a bad line than Brissett. He's more mobile and more skilled, far more likely to evade the rush and make off platform plays that make us go wow. Brissett is glacial in that area. He's done a good job evading initial quick pressures but then....doesn't pull the trigger quick enough. Maye would make more mistakes in total but also make way more explosive plays. Not sure how that ultimately nets out in terms of wins and losses. Washington was projected to have just as bad an OL as us but Daniels is succeeding. Is he succeeding because the line was better than anticipated or has Daniels and the scheme made the line look better?

I think the issue is not so much injury to Maye as it is he starts not reading the field, dropping his eyes to look at the rush, and bailing out of clean pockets after 1 read to the point where if/when the line stabilizes they have to coach Maye to stay in the pocket and go through his reads.

I personally have no idea what the right path is, throwing him out there now or waiting. I lean towards playing him but it's like 51/49 and I flip flop. I was kind of hoping they'd get a few weeks of a stable line, at least the same 5-6 guys playing multiple weeks together, before putting Maye in but injuries have basically ruined any chance of that happening.

 

[DJnVa]

So looks like NE missed being able to draft a great WR by one year. Are there any prospects that might be worthy of a top 5 pick next spring? The o-line needs an overhaul but getting Maye a security blanket would go a long way to helping him perform at his best, whatever level that is.

There is. Travis Hunter (Colorado) and Teta McMillan (Arizona) are mocked at #1 and #3 right now at NFL Tankathon (with the Pats picking #3).

I'm still on the "sign or trade for WR and draft an OT" train, but we'll see. Dropping from top 3 to 8-10 and picking up picks is my where I lean. But it's October, so...lots can change. One easy thing to root for is for college QBs to rise up the draft board, making a top 5 pick more valuable.

 

[DJnVa]

I personally have no idea what the right path is, throwing him out there now or waiting. I lean towards playing him but it's like 51/49 and I flip flop. I was kind of hoping they'd get a few weeks of a stable line, at least the same 5-6 guys playing multiple weeks together, before putting Maye in but injuries have basically ruined any chance of that happening.

Honestly, I think his route to playing more is gonna be when the OL gets Brissett killed. That dude's entire body has to be bruised at this point.

 

[BigJimEd]

I lean towards Maye sitting at least a little longer probably around 60/40. Whether he's better than Jacoby or not is irrelevant to me. It's about what's best long term for Maye. I can see the argument for Maye sitting and learning and don't see what harm it would cause if he sits another say 4-5 weeks. Will that hurt his development? Will he be less prepared in 2025 going? I don't see it.

I do think it will probably be beneficial for him to get some time this season but I don't think starting him now is necessary for that. And I can see a chance, even if slight, that playing now might hinder Maye's development to some degree. Do people think Brady, Rodgers and Mahomes development were hindered by sitting? Haven't really heard people complain that any QBs development was hindered by them sitting too long.

 

[Garshaparra]

To me, that feels reasonable. Not guaranteed, since bad luck happens to us all. And I can't tell you now exactly what combination of free agent signings and draft picks and internal development gets us there. But it's reasonable to think that with time and the resources we have the OLine should get better.

Now, getting from average to great is often a lot harder. But that's for another time.

Talk about getting from average to great, let's take Detroit, who have had the best OLine in football for the last two seasons. How did they get there? Lots of high draft picks and big money for their guys hitting FA:

Decker - 1R (16th) in 2016, 3 years/32M G, 11M cap
Glasgow - 3R (95th) in 2016, 3 years/8M G, 3M cap
Rangow - 1R (20th) in 2018, 4 years/42M G, 13M cap
Jonah Johnson - 3R (75th) in 2021, rookie contract, 3M cap
^ replaced by Zeitler - 1R (27th), 3 years/16M G, 6M cap
Sewell - 1R (16th) in 2021, 4 years/112M G, 8M cap

So that's four first rounders playing on their line this year, heavy cash outlays ($41M in cap, $210M in guarantees over the next 3-4 years), and some really bad seasons to build up talent. They gave up Johnson in order to save enough money to sign Amon St. Brown, and got another 1st round vet to take his place. Compare with the Pats' ideal lineup coming in to this season (yes I know):

Chuks - 3R, 4M cap
Strange - 1R, 3M cap
Andrews - undrafted, 7M cap
Sow - 3R, 1M cap
Onwenu - 6R, 10M cap

That's 25M in cap space and a single first-round talent coming in to the season, and he's not playing. How come we couldn't sign a guy like Kevin Zeitler? Because he's a vet who wants to win, and knew he'd still make good late-career money and play alongside other top talents.

 

[Justthetippett]

I lean towards Maye sitting at least a little longer probably around 60/40. Whether he's better than Jacoby or not is irrelevant to me. It's about what's best long term for Maye. I can see the argument for Maye sitting and learning and don't see what harm it would cause if he sits another say 4-5 weeks. Will that hurt his development? Will he be less prepared in 2025 going? I don't see it.

I do think it will probably be beneficial for him to get some time this season but I don't think starting him now is necessary for that. And I can see a chance, even if slight, that playing now might hinder Maye's development to some degree. Do people think Brady, Rodgers and Mahomes development were hindered by sitting? Haven't really heard people complain that any QBs development was hindered by them sitting too long.

No highly drafted QB in recent years has sat behind a starter like Jacoby. God bless the guy, but he's not Favre, or even Bledsoe or Smith. That's the difference. It's one thing to learn behind a top level starter on a competitive team, it's another to watch the starter get creamed and fail to deliver every game. No one has an issue with Pennix sitting because he's watching Cousins. That's just not the Pats' situation. I was OK with sitting Maye through the SF game. The opening schedule was a meat grinder. But now it's time to play him and really start his development. If the offensive line can't protect him, then do it through scheme and play calling. They keep talking about a plan, but I don't think there really is one. Just get him in the game.

 

[BigJimEd]

No highly drafted QB in recent years has sat behind a starter like Jacoby.

And many of those QBs have failed or are failing so I don't see how that is evidence it is the best way to proceed. Not saying it isn't but saying that's the way it has been the last few years is meaningless. Just because you don't agre with the Patriots plan doesn't mean they don't have one.

 

[Hendu for Kutch]

If the offensive line can't protect him, then do it through scheme and play calling.

Isn't that the problem though? They already are doing it through scheme and play calling and he's still getting killed because the offensive line is just that bad.

 

[jercra]

This is a fair challenge to make

Here's the way I think about it, which I don't think falls in the category of wish casting but which doesn't fill in details that I / we don't and can't know yet

By a bunch of metrics the Pats are a bottom-5 pass blocking team (depending on which metric you look at their ranking can shift). They are also a team that is going to have very high draft picks in every round and a ton of cap space next summer.

Now, is it reasonable to think that an NFL front office with a league-average competency at scouting and evaluation-- endowed with high draft picks, tons of cap space, and an owner willing to spend to win-- can move a position of clear importance and need from "bottom 5" to "league average"?

To me, that feels reasonable. Not guaranteed, since bad luck happens to us all. And I can't tell you now exactly what combination of free agent signings and draft picks and internal development gets us there. But it's reasonable to think that with time and the resources we have the OLine should get better.

Now, getting from average to great is often a lot harder. But that's for another time.

We just had the #3 overall pick, a ton of cap space, the same owner, and did none of this. I get that we used the first pick on a QB but we can't even use that player because little to nothing was done about the OL, especially LT. According to people here who know way more about these things than I do, there are no stud LT coming out this year. We know free agents don't want to come to NE to be a bottom dweller. I think getting to average is going to be a much bigger challenge than you are making it sound.

 

[NickEsasky]

We just had the #3 overall pick, a ton of cap space, the same owner, and did none of this. I get that we used the first pick on a QB but we can't even use that player because little to nothing was done about the OL, especially LT. According to people here who know way more about these things than I do, there are no stud LT coming out this year. We know free agents don't want to come to NE to be a bottom dweller. I think getting to average is going to be a much bigger challenge than you are making it sound.

I agree it's not the easiest fix, but can we at least let the college season play out before declaring the draft bereft of good OTs? There are at least a few guys who are considered first rounders.

 

[Justthetippett]

Isn't that the problem though? They already are doing it through scheme and play calling and he's still getting killed because the offensive line is just that bad.

In parts of the SF game it looked they were trying, and they actually had a bit of success. Designed roll outs to move the pocket. Short, quick throws. When they go with the slow developing play action or seven/eleven step drops, they get killed. I think there's more that could be done there, even with an epically shitty line.

 

[SMU_Sox]

I frankly can't imagine a plausible scenario to support that. This might be the worst OL I have ever seen right now.

It can always get worse. You can even read this thread to see some posters arguing that it couldn't be worse this year. It isn't likely to get much worse than this though, no. It hopefully improves as we continue this year.

If the offensive line can't protect him, then do it through scheme and play calling.

I think the reason we haven't seen more of this is because JB sucks at quick game. It is his worst style. There is a disconnect between building the foundation for the scheme of the future and what we would need to do to win today with Maye or JB. If we wanted to win we would need to run a 2022 Giants type of offense. There is also no guarantee AVP is a creative enough play caller or designer to get to that point either. AVP reminds me of a guy who could run a high end kitchen (maybe not a James Beard award winner) but would fail on the show Chopped. Ideally though you aren't running a Chopped kitchen you have a real kitchen. We don't. Every week is like, ok now cook us up a meal with jelly beans, foie gras, premade gas station sushi, and sweet potatoes. You have 30 minutes! GO!

 

[Justthetippett]

And many of those QBs have failed or are failing so I don't see how that is evidence it is the best way to proceed. Not saying it isn't but saying that's the way it has been the last few years is meaningless. Just because you don't agre with the Patriots plan doesn't mean they don't have one.

I would say it's good evidence, not that it's determinative necessarily, but I don't have a lot of trust in this front office or coaching staff to innovate on QB development. Bill took the blame for the last debacle, but it's a lot of the same front office guys who were here for Mac. I think their plan is: we like Jacoby, he's a good citizen, he's not completely embarrassing, let's wait and see, keep having Maye get practice reps, let AVP settle into his role, hope for OL improvement, and move when the time is right, which...fine, but it's not very inspiring.

 

[Justthetippett]

It can always get worse. You can even read this thread to see some posters arguing that it couldn't be worse this year. It isn't likely to get much worse than this though, no. It hopefully improves as we continue this year.



I think the reason we haven't seen more of this is because JB sucks at quick game. It is his worst style. There is a disconnect between building the foundation for the scheme of the future and what we would need to do to win today with Maye or JB. If we wanted to win we would need to run a 2022 Giants type of offense. There is also no guarantee AVP is a creative enough play caller or designer to get to that point either. AVP reminds me of a guy who could run a high end kitchen (maybe not a James Beard award winner) but would fail on the show Chopped. Ideally though you aren't running a Chopped kitchen you have a real kitchen. We don't. Every week is like, ok now cook us up a meal with jelly beans, foie gras, premade gas station sushi, and sweet potatoes. You have 30 minutes! GO!

He's a line cook, not a chef! Give him the menu and the prep and he'll churn something out. But I agree, I don't think he's going to break much new ground.

Unless he wants to make his name on laterals...on those he's a man ahead of his time.

 

[Garshaparra]

We just had the #3 overall pick, a ton of cap space, the same owner, and did none of this. I get that we used the first pick on a QB but we can't even use that player because little to nothing was done about the OL, especially LT. According to people here who know way more about these things than I do, there are no stud LT coming out this year. We know free agents don't want to come to NE to be a bottom dweller. I think getting to average is going to be a much bigger challenge than you are making it sound.

Again, using Detroit, it didn't take them all that long to go from doldrums to league average, going from 4-12 in 2012 to above-average in 2014, with 4 league average seasons in the mix (7-9 or 9-7 for four of five seasons, with 11-5 in the midst). They weren't great, but they weren't terrible. They moved on from steady, unspectacular Jim Caldwell as coach, hired MattPat, and plummeted back to trash-fire levels. They didn't panic with their line though, building talent until they hit their apex last year, and they look very good this year as well.

The Pats FO decided that Maye was their man, eschewed the NYG offers, and then had their first real choice in the 2nd round: WR or OL. They weighed both, and went WR. Could they have maybe packaged their 3 and two 4s for another 2? Perhaps, but they went for quantity, and took Wallace/Robinson/Baker. All 3 look like misses, but it's not like they were misses at DB/RB/S again. 3rd round OL help is still feasible, just not game changers necessarily.

 

[slamminsammya]

Again, using Detroit, it didn't take them all that long to go from doldrums to league average, going from 4-12 in 2012 to above-average in 2014, with 4 league average seasons in the mix (7-9 or 9-7 for four of five seasons, with 11-5 in the midst). They weren't great, but they weren't terrible. They moved on from steady, unspectacular Jim Caldwell as coach, hired MattPat, and plummeted back to trash-fire levels. They didn't panic with their line though, building talent until they hit their apex last year, and they look very good this year as well.

The Pats FO decided that Maye was their man, eschewed the NYG offers, and then had their first real choice in the 2nd round: WR or OL. They weighed both, and went WR. Could they have maybe packaged their 3 and two 4s for another 2? Perhaps, but they went for quantity, and took Wallace/Robinson/Baker. All 3 look like misses, but it's not like they were misses at DB/RB/S again. 3rd round OL help is still feasible, just not game changers necessarily.

Is it typical to judge draft picks as misses after 4 games?

 

[j44thor]

With Andrews done I think we are a bit closer to a redshirt season for Maye. Andrews really is the glue guy on the line and what we saw in pre-season when he was out was downright scary.

 

[Cellar-Door]

Again, using Detroit, it didn't take them all that long to go from doldrums to league average, going from 4-12 in 2012 to above-average in 2014, with 4 league average seasons in the mix (7-9 or 9-7 for four of five seasons, with 11-5 in the midst). They weren't great, but they weren't terrible. They moved on from steady, unspectacular Jim Caldwell as coach, hired MattPat, and plummeted back to trash-fire levels. They didn't panic with their line though, building talent until they hit their apex last year, and they look very good this year as well.

The Pats FO decided that Maye was their man, eschewed the NYG offers, and then had their first real choice in the 2nd round: WR or OL. They weighed both, and went WR. Could they have maybe packaged their 3 and two 4s for another 2? Perhaps, but they went for quantity, and took Wallace/Robinson/Baker. All 3 look like misses, but it's not like they were misses at DB/RB/S again. 3rd round OL help is still feasible, just not game changers necessarily.

If Wallace and Robinson are misses then so are all the OTs who went in the 2nd, none of them have been significantly better....

Also it's 4 games in a line that is a mess.

 

[joe dokes]

With Andrews done I think we are a bit closer to a redshirt season for Maye. Andrews really is the glue guy on the line and what we saw in pre-season when he was out was downright scary.

It was. And maybe it's all relative to the dreck that was around him, but Leverett seemed to not suck against SF. (My eyes...haven't seen any rankings)

 

[Garshaparra]

Is it typical to judge draft picks as misses after 4 games?

If Wallace and Robinson are misses then so are all the OTs who went in the 2nd, none of them have been significantly better....

Also it's 4 games in a line that is a mess.

Shall I say then that none exceeded their draft pedigrees to be clear day 1 starters? After all, both rookie OLmen are performing poorly enough, having been pressed into starting roles, that the team seems wary of playing the guy who this thread is about, in fear that he will be pancaked into oblivion, and/or develop poor habits running from said pancaking. For what it's worth, they've not made a move to try and pick up Atonio Mafi from the Colts' PS, so they think Robinson is still the better project.

 

[rodderick]

With Jared Goff, Sam Darnold, Geno Smith and Baker Mayfield ranking among the best QBs in the league to start this season, I think the question should be less "what if we ruin him?" and more "what if we don't have the pieces in place to accurately gauge whether he has the potential to become a good starter in this league?". Because that's where the context comes into play the most: if he's either amazing or horrible, he'll figure out a way to reach that outcome regardless, but you may very well miss out on a very good QB because the roster and coaching around him wasn't up to par. The whole "bad habits" thing, to me, is incredibly overrated.

 

[Cellar-Door]

With Jared Goff, Sam Darnold, Geno Smith and Baker Mayfield ranking among the best QBs in the league to start this season, I think the question should be less "what if we ruin him?" and more "what if we don't have the pieces in place to accurately gauge whether he has the potential to become a good starter in this league?". Because that's where the context comes into play the most: if he's either amazing or horrible, he'll figure out a way to reach that outcome regardless, but you may very well miss out on a very good QB because the roster and coaching around him wasn't up to par. The whole "bad habits" thing, to me, is incredibly overrated.

Mayfield is kind of an outlier to me because he was really good and injuries did de-rail him. But I do agree with some of this.

I also think there is a good case for.... every QB needs to develop, and it's less "bad habits" than if you put a guy in a non-functional situation he's going to struggle to develop key portions of his game.

 

[P'tucket rhymes with...]

I think the bolded is begging the question of whether Maye is actually a "better player" behind *this* line at this time this year. (There's little doubt that he's a better player in some abstract world or a skills competition)
To answer your other question, he would play next year because (in theory anyway) he will have a year of pro experience (and pro body work) to deal with the OL issues.

The certainty that some people seem to have w/r/t to the benefits to the team and Maye of playing right now is remarkable.

All the more so when you recall that on draft night, it was pretty much universally understood that he was a project who would watch and learn during Year One. When he started getting ahead of schedule during the preseason, folks sped through "his response to professional coaching is great!" to "He needs to be in there right now!"

 

[FL4WL3SS]

With Jared Goff, Sam Darnold, Geno Smith and Baker Mayfield ranking among the best QBs in the league to start this season, I think the question should be less "what if we ruin him?" and more "what if we don't have the pieces in place to accurately gauge whether he has the potential to become a good starter in this league?". Because that's where the context comes into play the most: if he's either amazing or horrible, he'll figure out a way to reach that outcome regardless, but you may very well miss out on a very good QB because the roster and coaching around him wasn't up to par. The whole "bad habits" thing, to me, is incredibly overrated.

Shit, you could even add Justin Fields to this list.

 

[SMU_Sox]

Most guys don’t break out in their age 32 season re: Geno. Darnold took being with a loaded offense and great HC to realize his potential but he might not have had he just been drafted. Everything I have read about Mayfield suggested that he was a limited QB in Cleveland and it took him until TB, his 4th team, to improve on what was holding him back. Goff’s development was held back by McVay. Goff also was pretty good in most of his years in LA minus his last year and his rookie season. What is happening to these guys is not something you can really take a lesson from because they are unique circumstances. Not many guys, for example, like Geno turn their weaknesses (pocket presence) into strengths. For every Geno Smith there are 20 Blaine Gabberts or Mitch Trubiskis. Sometimes QBs make jumps later in their careers but it isn’t something to bet on. These guys are all outliers and I wouldn’t even put Goff into that group.

 

[rodderick]

Most guys don’t break out in their age 32 season re: Geno. Darnold took being with a loaded offense and great HC to realize his potential but he might not have had he just been drafted. Everything I have read about Mayfield suggested that he was a limited QB in Cleveland and it took him until TB, his 4th team, to improve on what was holding him back. Goff’s development was held back by McVay. Goff also was pretty good in most of his years in LA minus his last year and his rookie season. What is happening to these guys is not something you can really take a lesson from because they are unique circumstances. Not many guys, for example, like Geno turn their weaknesses (pocket presence) into strengths. For every Geno Smith there are 20 Blaine Gabberts or Mitch Trubiskis. Sometimes QBs make jumps later in their careers but it isn’t something to bet on. These guys are all outliers and I wouldn’t even put Goff into that group.

Gabbert and Trubiski couldn't play. I don't necessarily think the circumstances surrounding those guys are that unique, my position is less that Maye might be a late bloomer and more that if he has even a solid level of skill and aptitude, he won't be broken by a bad situation, even if a bad situation makes it so properly evaluating him isn't possible. It's very rare that guys "break", in my opinion. Which is why I would play him now and give him at least three years before making any sort of determination on him unless he's either really good or Bryce Young.

 

[Bergs]

Most guys don’t break out in their age 32 season re: Geno. Darnold took being with a loaded offense and great HC to realize his potential but he might not have had he just been drafted. Everything I have read about Mayfield suggested that he was a limited QB in Cleveland and it took him until TB, his 4th team, to improve on what was holding him back. Goff’s development was held back by McVay. Goff also was pretty good in most of his years in LA minus his last year and his rookie season. What is happening to these guys is not something you can really take a lesson from because they are unique circumstances. Not many guys, for example, like Geno turn their weaknesses (pocket presence) into strengths. For every Geno Smith there are 20 Blaine Gabberts or Mitch Trubiskis. Sometimes QBs make jumps later in their careers but it isn’t something to bet on. These guys are all outliers and I wouldn’t even put Goff into that group.

Mayfield showed signs, coming within bullshit officiating of beating the Mahomes Chiefs in the playoffs, and then spent the entire next season playing crippled.

 

[The Mort Report]

Gabbert and Trubiski couldn't play. I don't necessarily think the circumstances surrounding those guys are that unique, my position is less that Maye might be a late bloomer and more that if he has even a solid level of skill and aptitude, he won't be broken by a bad situation, even if a bad situation makes it so properly evaluating him isn't possible. It's very rare that guys "break", in my opinion. Which is why I would play him now and give him at least three years before making any sort of determination on him unless he's either really good or Bryce Young.

So under this argument shouldn't Baker, Wallace, and Robinson all be starting since they are perceived to have more skill than players ahead of them.

Look, I think everyone here can agree in the moment we'd rather be watching Maye play over Brissett, but the coaching staff doesn't think he's ready and they know this is a lost season. He's only 21, and even if he red shirts this season he is almost assuredly QB1 next year. I don't think you can deny that harm can be done mentally and/or physically by playing too soon, but the only harm waiting too long is game reps, which he will get plenty next year when the team will most likely still be rebuilding.

 

[SMU_Sox]

Gabbert and Trubiski couldn't play.

Neither could Darnold until this year or Geno until his age 32 season. Trubiski hung around as a (bridge) starter after his Bears days. Gabbert was a backup for a long time.

Mayfield showed signs, coming within bullshit officiating of beating the Mahomes Chiefs in the playoffs, and then spent the entire next season playing crippled.

The Bucs signed him for $4mm in 2023 after he bombed out with the Panthers and the Rams. He was on his last life, improved greatly, and revived his career. Most guys don’t do that. If he was really as special and had as much obvious potential as you think he wouldn’t have been a Tim Wakefield special in 2023!
Baker had issues aside from injuries.

 

[Bergs]

The Bucs signed him for $4mm in 2023 after he bombed out with the Panthers and the Rams. He was on his last life, improved greatly, and revived his career. Most guys don’t do that. If he was really as special and had as much obvious potential as you think he wouldn’t have been a Tim Wakefield special in 2023!
Baker had issues aside from injuries.

Yeah. I was responding to the words you actually typed, which included "in Cleveland."

 

[SMU_Sox]

Yeah. I was responding to the words you actually typed, which included "in Cleveland."

Fair (forgive me for forgetting what I wrote lol) but I think his time in Cleveland has an undeserved halo around it. He had two slightly above average years there and 2 bad years. He had a poor completion % and interception rate there. Even in one of his good years he was still turnover prone. His best completion % in Cleveland was 63.8%, which is a 101 index. The other 3 years he was 92 or worse. He didn’t throw to all areas of the field. He is ripping shots and trusting his reads in TB like he never did there. He was known as a choker in Cleveland too. https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/3406182/2022/07/07/browns-baker-mayfield-lloyd/?source=user_shared_articleBrowns, Baker Mayfield and trying to identify where it all went wrong (Athletic Article)

That’s a good summary of it.

There were flashes of it but the difference between a good QB and a backup are how consistent they are. Flashes are nice but after 4 years you either believe the flashes become consistent or you move on. You can’t bet on guys to flip the script. These are great feel-good stories and make the case for investing in backup QBs but it’s not a viable strategy for finding a QB or even keeping a bad one. Each guy is rather different too in why they failed and how they succeeded. I don’t see how you can glean any game-changing insights from them.

 

[Bergs]

Fair (forgive me for forgetting what I wrote lol) but I think his time in Cleveland has an undeserved halo around it. He had two slightly above average years there and 2 bad years. He had a poor completion % and interception rate there. Even in one of his good years he was still turnover prone. His best completion % in Cleveland was 63.8%, which is a 101 index. The other 3 years he was 92 or worse. He didn’t throw to all areas of the field. He is ripping shots and trusting his reads in TB like he never did there. He was known as a choker in Cleveland too. https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/3406182/2022/07/07/browns-baker-mayfield-lloyd/?source=user_shared_articleBrowns, Baker Mayfield and trying to identify where it all went wrong (Athletic Article)

That’s a good summary of it.

There were flashes of it but the difference between a good QB and a backup are how consistent they are. Flashes are nice but after 4 years you either believe the flashes become consistent or you move on. You can’t bet on guys to flip the script. These are great feel-good stories and make the case for investing in backup QBs but it’s not a viable strategy for finding a QB or even keeping a bad one. Each guy is rather different too in why they failed and how they succeeded. I don’t see how you can glean any game-changing insights from them.

I don't disagree. I'm never gonna win a full-on football debate with you, but I stand by my original response to his time in CLE. I wasn't a fan by any means, but Mrs. Bergs was a Browns fan before the Watson debacle, so I watched a lot of those games. I thought he was getting better, and am about 1000% sure that if the Browns didn't empty the cupboard to get a rapist, Baker would have had some pretty good seasons there.

 

[SMU_Sox]

I don't disagree. I'm never gonna win a full-on football debate with you, but I stand by my original response to his time in CLE. I wasn't a fan by any means, but Mrs. Bergs was a Browns fan before the Watson debacle, so I watched a lot of those games. I thought he was getting better, and am about 1000% sure that if the Browns didn't empty the cupboard to get a rapist, Baker would have had some pretty good seasons there.

Hey I apologize. I wasn’t trying to debate… more get to the truth if we can. I didn’t mean to come off argumentative there. Baker was a controversial eval FWIW. I am basing my takes on a limited view time and going off of what the QB experts I trust say. There is a lot of context I wouldn’t have either about the team and the coaching that someone who watches them daily might have. Mrs. Bergs is a good source. If I can find some time it might be fun to watch some 2020 Baker, 2021 Baker and then 2023-24 Baker to see what changed. If Mrs. Bergs or you have any games to recommend (good and bad for the complete perspective) I am all ears. And again, sorry for coming off hot - that definitely was not my intent.

 

[Bergs]

Hey I apologize. I wasn’t trying to debate… more get to the truth if we can. I didn’t mean to come off argumentative there. Baker was a controversial eval FWIW. I am basing my takes on a limited view time and going off of what the QB experts I trust say. There is a lot of context I wouldn’t have either about the team and the coaching that someone who watches them daily might have. Mrs. Bergs is a good source. If I can find some time it might be fun to watch some 2020 Baker, 2021 Baker and then 2023-24 Baker to see what changed. If Mrs. Bergs or you have any games to recommend (good and bad for the complete perspective) I am all ears. And again, sorry for coming off hot - that definitely was not my intent.

Jesus. Don't apologize; I'm just having some fun, man! I love your work here (thus, "I'm never gonna win a full-on football debate with you" - that was respect, not snark).

The play that I am still bothered by is the officials decided launching helmet first into a receiver was not only "not a penalty" but worthy of rewarding the ball to the offending team when the freshly decapitated guy fumbles out of the endzone.

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cKSlZm6WkCQ

 

[Kenny F'ing Powers]

We just had the #3 overall pick, a ton of cap space, the same owner, and did none of this. I get that we used the first pick on a QB but we can't even use that player because little to nothing was done about the OL, especially LT. According to people here who know way more about these things than I do, there are no stud LT coming out this year. We know free agents don't want to come to NE to be a bottom dweller. I think getting to average is going to be a much bigger challenge than you are making it sound.

What would you have done about the OL? The list of players in free agency has been discussed ad nauseum.

You're complaining to complain. Maybe we would have been better off with a LT in the draft and not Maye. But that was basically the only option for the line.

 

[Eddie Jurak]

I think the issue is not so much injury to Maye as it is he starts not reading the field, dropping his eyes to look at the rush, and bailing out of clean pockets after 1 read to the point where if/when the line stabilizes they have to coach Maye to stay in the pocket and go through his reads.

I think this is exactly what the issue is, and I'd be reluctant to give him the starting job right now for exactly this reason.

But I do think we are at a point where it is time to give him some playing time. I think it was good for him to get some exposure in the Jets game and it was a mistake not to give him the final drive in the 49ers game.

 

[DJnVa]

We just had the #3 overall pick, a ton of cap space, the same owner, and did none of this. I get that we used the first pick on a QB but we can't even use that player because little to nothing was done about the OL, especially LT. According to people here who know way more about these things than I do, there are no stud LT coming out this year. We know free agents don't want to come to NE to be a bottom dweller. I think getting to average is going to be a much bigger challenge than you are making it sound.

What was the alternate plan to have a top LT in the building this year?

There may not be any stud LTs coming out this year, but if we drafted one last year, what stud QB would we be looking at in this draft?