Putting the C in 'Arsen

Fishy1

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I for one hope Edwards doesn't stop letting it fly. In fact, I wish if anything he were playing with greater abandon, as he's seemed at times even tentative with his shot.

He needs to be the guy taking those tough threes and making them. That's his whole game. There's a reason why he has the green light. There's a reason he's getting minutes as he struggles with defensive schemes and bigger guards on both ends. He has plus-plus potential as a volume shooter from three point land right now. Golden State and the Rockets have shown us over and over again that there's nothing more gravitational than an elite shooter on a roll.

Edwards might never be that guy consistently, or he might turn into a guy who takes ten threes a game and knocks them down at an elite percentage. We just don't know yet, but you can bet the Celtics are going to try and find out. Brad has always preached that guys should do what they do best.

Wanamaker has been so rock-solid on both ends of the floor, so I think he definitely deserves the majority of backup minutes for the forseeable future. But Carsen will get his chance, especially if Kemba is out for any significant portion of time (which I hope he isn't!)

EDIT: Carsen isn't the player Trae Young is, and almost certainly will never be, but Young's struggles in the first half last year come to mind. How many people wrote him off because he struggled from three for a few months?
 

benhogan

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They should take that approach anyway even if it doesn't pay off with Edwards and/or Williams in particular.

I'd argue they have been taking that approach too with mixed results. I think sometimes people forget about players like Abdel Nader, RJ Hunter, PJ Dozier, Jabari Bird, James Young, Kadeem Allen, Yabu etc. Not everyone develops and the further you get away from the top of the draft, the truer that becomes.

Just like some of (or even most of) Williams, Edwards, Tacko, Romeo, Waters, and Green won't work out.
Take a look at Powell, Siakam, VanVleet and Anunoby NBA minutes/games played their 1st and 2nd years. None of those guys even sniffed the lottery. Toronto is very progressive with their development, while still being a top contender. The Celtics have not been as aggressive as the Raptors, which may be due to their drafting abilities or development. Either way, Toronto is the model you want to copy as far as drafting late and developing.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Take a look at Powell, Siakam, VanVleet and Anunoby NBA minutes/games played their 1st and 2nd years. None of those guys even sniffed the lottery. Toronto is very progressive with their development, while still being a top contender.
Right, but there's also guys like Bruno Caboclo, Jakob Poitl and Lucas Nogueira.

The Nuggets are great at finding players late in the draft too and still have misses.

The Celtics should definitely take the time to develop these players but some of them just aren't going to develop into anything useful. I think even if Edwards does develop it's Terry Rozier all over again. In an ideal world, a guy like Rozier would be the perfect bench player. In the real world, bad teams pay Terry Rozier to start basketball games.

Of course if Edwards is playing 30 minutes a game and putting up 20+ points a night on .4xx/.400/.800 shooting averaging 10+ 3PA a night, you pay the man. I just don't see it. If he turns into that 20 minute microwave player, he's gone.

That's the case with a lot of rookies though. By the time they are productive, they are up for a new deal that will most likely overpay them.
 

Cesar Crespo

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I don't know much about Edwards' handle(s) but his TO% is only at 5.8%. That would be 3rd in the NBA if he qualified. If he can bring the ball up under pressure, that would help his case even if he's not much of a play maker. The Celtics have other guys who can create shots. I mentioned it earlier in the thread but the sample size is a bit bigger now.

If you read his scouting reports, they make a big deal about his TO. In the early going, it looks like a strength or maybe even an elite skill (SSS). I think maybe those reports focused too much on him having more TO than assists rather than actual TO%. I don't know where to find % stats for college but I'm guessing his TO rate was actually pretty damn low considering his usage.

From what I've seen, he likes to pound the ball and play making isn't his strong suit but he's always in control of the ball.
 

benhogan

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Right, but there's also guys like Bruno Caboclo, Jakob Poitl and Lucas Nogueira.

The Nuggets are great at finding players late in the draft too and still have misses.

The Celtics should definitely take the time to develop these players but some of them just aren't going to develop into anything useful. I think even if Edwards does develop it's Terry Rozier all over again. In an ideal world, a guy like Rozier would be the perfect bench player. In the real world, bad teams pay Terry Rozier to start basketball games.

Of course if Edwards is playing 30 minutes a game and putting up 20+ points a night on .4xx/.400/.800 shooting averaging 10+ 3PA a night, you pay the man. I just don't see it. If he turns into that 20 minute microwave player, he's gone.

That's the case with a lot of rookies though. By the time they are productive, they are up for a new deal that will most likely overpay them.
not sure where we're going with this but Poeltl was/is a productive player.

Just keep on giving minutes to Edwards/Grant, develop them and see where it goes. No thanks to DNPs
 

Cellar-Door

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not sure where we're going with this but Poeltl was/is a productive player.

Just keep on giving minutes to Edwards/Grant, develop them and see where it goes. No thanks to DNPs
Powell played 725 minutes over 49 games as a rookie
Poeltl played a total of 624 minutes over 54 games his first year,
Van Vleet played 249 over 37
Nogueira played 23 minutes over 6 games
Bruno 23 minutes over 8


Edwards is on pace to beat both of those numbers for each guy

Siakam played 860 over 55 which is slightly more minutes in less games, but I'd say a similar workload since rookies tend to earn time as the season goes on (and injuries happen)

Really Annunoby is the only Raptors player who was played differently than the Celtics are playing Carsen. Rookies get DNPs, as they should on good teams. You need to justify giving minutes to deep bench guys while trying to win, and usually that is based on performance and matchup.
 

benhogan

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Powell played 725 minutes over 49 games as a rookie
Poeltl played a total of 624 minutes over 54 games his first year,
Van Vleet played 249 over 37
Nogueira played 23 minutes over 6 games
Bruno 23 minutes over 8


Edwards is on pace to beat both of those numbers for each guy

Siakam played 860 over 55 which is slightly more minutes in less games, but I'd say a similar workload since rookies tend to earn time as the season goes on (and injuries happen)

Really Annunoby is the only Raptors player who was played differently than the Celtics are playing Carsen. Rookies get DNPs, as they should on good teams. You need to justify giving minutes to deep bench guys while trying to win, and usually that is based on performance and matchup.
great, Brad believes it's important to play and develop Grant/Carsen. smart move
 

Cesar Crespo

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You need to justify giving minutes to deep bench guys while trying to win, and usually that is based on performance and matchup.
With all tine injuries this year, he's not really a deep bench guy. The team isn't exactly deep when healthy.
 

TripleOT

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Considering that the Cs might have another three first round picks in the next draft, Edwards needs to prove that he belongs if he gets real minutes this season.
 

DJnVa

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Considering that the Cs might have another three first round picks in the next draft, Edwards needs to prove that he belongs if he gets real minutes this season.
They signed him to a 4 year guaranteed deal, they really like him. He's gonna get more than a year.
 

lovegtm

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They signed him to a 4 year guaranteed deal, they really like him. He's gonna get more than a year.
It only takes 1-2 late picks being good to really move the needle when you have a good core, and it’s hard to know in advance who those guys are. He’s going to get playing time in case he can put it together.
 

Cesar Crespo

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How is Smart, Kanter, RWIII, Wanamaker, GWill, Semi and Carsen, not a deep bench?
Because most of it is young, inexperienced and based on potential and not actual production. Smart's also more or less a starter, or at least he gets starter minutes.

You agree with my overall point though. Carsen and GWill are going to play a bit because the other options (Semi and RWill) aren't that much better than they are.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Looks like the early season TO% was a mirage as it's climbed up to 11.8% over the past few games. His assist rate is 9.9%. I want to like the guy but I just don't see what everyone else does. He has to hit 3s at an insane clip to make up for all his other shortcomings. He's been given more ball handling responsibility in Maine and thru 2 games is averaging 4.0 assists and 4.0 turnovers. In an ideal world, Waters would be on the C's roster and Edwards would be running point in Maine all year.

I like Waters so much more than Edwards. He's just a much better overall player. Edwards might be the better shooter and that's arguable.

Maybe Edwards does turn into an NBA player but I still think he should be racking up DNP-CDs or playing for Maine. I also don't think playing for Maine is necessarily better for a players development than racking up DNP-CDs so I don't really have a preference as to which one. There's usually some garbage time to go around and practicing against NBA players is valuable.
 

PedrosRedGlove

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I like Waters so much more than Edwards. He's just a much better overall player. Edwards might be the better shooter and that's arguable.
I think you might be misinterpreting our excitement a little. I'm one of Carsen's biggest supporters but I'm not sure I ever considered him a better overall player than Waters given what they've each shown, even before the season started.

He's had a rough start to the year but at college and over the summer he demonstrated alpha scorer ability especially for someone his size. It was always going to be a test to see if he could adapt to scoring the same not as the alpha. That's the entire basis of the hype for him, that and his ability to hit from 30+ ft, which may end up being this era's basketball equivalent of a pitcher with a 100mph fastball. A tantalizing skill, but one that isn't useful without a baseline of other professional level abilities.
 

Jimbodandy

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I think you might be misinterpreting our excitement a little. I'm one of Carsen's biggest supporters but I'm not sure I ever considered him a better overall player than Waters given what they've each shown, even before the season started.

He's had a rough start to the year but at college and over the summer he demonstrated alpha scorer ability especially for someone his size. It was always going to be a test to see if he could adapt to scoring the same not as the alpha. That's the entire basis of the hype for him, that and his ability to hit from 30+ ft, which may end up being this era's basketball equivalent of a pitcher with a 100mph fastball. A tantalizing skill, but one that isn't useful without a baseline of other professional level abilities.
This is well said. I was optimistic about Edwards' ability to get in the flow and knock threes off the bench in limited chances, and clearly he hasn't figured that out the flow part yet. No guarantee that he ever will. Of course no guarantee that he won't either.

Conclusions on Edwards are being drawn astonishingly quickly.

Waters is a better player now, no doubt.
 

shoelace

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This is well said. I was optimistic about Edwards' ability to get in the flow and knock threes off the bench in limited chances, and clearly he hasn't figured that out the flow part yet. No guarantee that he ever will. Of course no guarantee that he won't either.

Conclusions on Edwards are being drawn astonishingly quickly.

Waters is a better player now, no doubt.
Agreed on all of this. I realize Terry Rozier is a loathed player on this board by many, but there was an insistence during his early career that he "sucked" and "couldn't shoot." Regardless of how one feels about the player, the takes on his shooting were clearly wrong. He's at .372 in his last 924 attempts starting in the 2017-2018 season. He's shooting .389 this season on 6.4 attempts per game this season with the highest usage (and presumably most defensive attention) of his career. Clearly he can shoot a little bit. Is he an elite shooter? No, but he has been an above average NBA shooter for the last 3 seasons. While he is not a $19,000,000 a year player, he's clearly an NBA caliber guard who was going to receive a second contract in the NBA and he certainly doesn't suck in that sense.

For Edwards, I think it's incredibly tough to transition to a role where his shot attempts are far more limited and he can't just chuck his way through a cold streak. It's an adjustment to play 15-20 minutes and maybe only put up a handful of shots, feels too quick to judge under those circumstances.
 

Jimbodandy

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Agreed on all of this. I realize Terry Rozier is a loathed player on this board by many, but there was an insistence during his early career that he "sucked" and "couldn't shoot." Regardless of how one feels about the player, the takes on his shooting were clearly wrong. He's at .372 in his last 924 attempts starting in the 2017-2018 season. He's shooting .389 this season on 6.4 attempts per game this season with the highest usage (and presumably most defensive attention) of his career. Clearly he can shoot a little bit. Is he an elite shooter? No, but he has been an above average NBA shooter for the last 3 seasons. While he is not a $19,000,000 a year player, he's clearly an NBA caliber guard who was going to receive a second contract in the NBA and he certainly doesn't suck in that sense.

For Edwards, I think it's incredibly tough to transition to a role where his shot attempts are far more limited and he can't just chuck his way through a cold streak. It's an adjustment to play 15-20 minutes and maybe only put up a handful of shots, feels too quick to judge under those circumstances.
I agree with all of this. Rozier is bigger and longer, but I agree that it's nuts to write off a guy this early. People develop and Carsen should find a groove imo. It's understandable that he hasn't yet.
 

chilidawg

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This is well said. I was optimistic about Edwards' ability to get in the flow and knock threes off the bench in limited chances, and clearly he hasn't figured that out the flow part yet. No guarantee that he ever will. Of course no guarantee that he won't either.

Conclusions on Edwards are being drawn astonishingly quickly.

Waters is a better player now, no doubt.
Waters has played 20 minutes. I'd say there's plenty of doubt as to who is the better player.
 

amarshal2

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After a couple summer and pre-season games we were able to get a pretty good idea of who these guys are. Neither one of them has taken a leap against NBA competition so I don’t have any reason to shift my opinion. While it would be better to see Carsen killing it out of the gate, the history of players who took a while to transition to a new role in the NBA is so long that I almost entirely discount his struggles. He hasn’t been exposed or anything, he just hasn’t figured out how to fit in. Waters has looked good but in the G league. Carsen would be averaging 25 a game if he was in the g-league all year.

I still don’t know which player I like more but we haven’t seen nearly enough from either of them in the NBA to change our opinions.
 

Imbricus

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Waters has looked good but in the G league.
Waters did have that one game where he played for the Celtics. Granted, it's only one game, but his quickness and vision and point guard skills were on full display, and he acquitted himself quite well. Hopefully he'll get some more opportunities with Boston in the new year.
 

Eddie Jurak

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Looks like the early season TO% was a mirage as it's climbed up to 11.8% over the past few games. His assist rate is 9.9%. I want to like the guy but I just don't see what everyone else does. He has to hit 3s at an insane clip to make up for all his other shortcomings. He's been given more ball handling responsibility in Maine and thru 2 games is averaging 4.0 assists and 4.0 turnovers. In an ideal world, Waters would be on the C's roster and Edwards would be running point in Maine all year.

I like Waters so much more than Edwards. He's just a much better overall player. Edwards might be the better shooter and that's arguable.

Maybe Edwards does turn into an NBA player but I still think he should be racking up DNP-CDs or playing for Maine. I also don't think playing for Maine is necessarily better for a players development than racking up DNP-CDs so I don't really have a preference as to which one. There's usually some garbage time to go around and practicing against NBA players is valuable.
Edwards is 17 for 51 from 3 (33%). As a rookie, playing limited minutes, and jacking up threes at a rate higher than anyone else on the team besides Kemba. If 2 of those misses had fallen, he'd be at 37% and I doubt anyone would be complaining. (Put another way, he was 2-9 in his first 2 games, 15-42 (36%) since.) He's got a long way to go, but that's expected as a rookie. His shooting to date lines up with a reasonable expectation of what an actual good shooter in his situation might do. He's also shown flashes of good defense while also often looking lost on defense. Given his inexperience, there looks to be plenty of room for improvement there. There was some optimism that he would provide instant production, which has turned out not to be the case, but he still looks like someone who will have an NBA career.

Waters is a competely different kind of player. He too looks like an NBA player, and he looked good in his one 20 minute opportunity, but he will have his own challenges.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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I like Waters so much more than Edwards. He's just a much better overall player. Edwards might be the better shooter and that's arguable.
You can certainly like whoever you want and I'm not going to get into an argument of who is the "better" player but objectively speaking, it's just not arguable that Edwards isn't the better shooter. Maybe Edwards never finds a system that works for him or maybe Waters's defense and passing gets him more minutes, but Edwards has a super elite skill.

If Edwards were coming onto one of Brad's early teams, I'm pretty sure he'd be doing quite well in the IT4 role. But he doesn't get many touches and he certainly doesn't get more than a handful of shot attempts a game and there is nothing more difficult than getting three shots every game and trying to make two of them. Because if a guy who takes three shots and misses two will have terrible stats.
 

Cesar Crespo

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You can certainly like whoever you want and I'm not going to get into an argument of who is the "better" player but objectively speaking, it's just not arguable that Edwards isn't the better shooter. Maybe Edwards never finds a system that works for him or maybe Waters's defense and passing gets him more minutes, but Edwards has a super elite skill.

If Edwards were coming onto one of Brad's early teams, I'm pretty sure he'd be doing quite well in the IT4 role. But he doesn't get many touches and he certainly doesn't get more than a handful of shot attempts a game and there is nothing more difficult than getting three shots every game and trying to make two of them. Because if a guy who takes three shots and misses two will have terrible stats.
They are both 21 year old kids. I think it's very much up for debate who is the "better shooter" or who develops into the better shooter.

Also, to the other person, if Carsen was shooting 38% from 3, he'd still suck as an NBA player. He brings nothing else.
 

benhogan

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They are both 21 year old kids. I think it's very much up for debate who is the "better shooter" or who develops into the better shooter.

Also, to the other person, if Carsen was shooting 38% from 3, he'd still suck as an NBA player. He brings nothing else.
This what CBS/Danny saw:
During the combine Carsen showed elite strength and quickness.
During high pressure NCAA games he broke scoring/shooting records.
During the pre-season he exhibited record breaking 3pt distance and high volume success against NBA players.

Edwards will get the chance to adjust to being a bench player, learn under Brad Stevens and develop into an NBA player. Get use to it, he'll get big minutes when in Maine and small minutes with the Celtics this season.
This is exactly what successful late 1st/2nd round rookie development looks and feels like.

How do you feel about Grant Williams? He has struggled out of the gate. Should he stop shooting 3s or be benched for wasting a TO a few games back?

Should Tacko get minutes with VP/TL out?

Playing these guys now, in lower leverage NBA games/minutes, will pay dividends later.

I like Tremont Waters and he is a better distributor and on-ball defender then Edwards. As far as shooting we can go back over the last 2 NCAA seasons and see Carsen was clearly the superior shooter from 3/FTs...and its not even debateable.
 
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Cesar Crespo

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Tacko is not an NBA player and if Edwards/Waters pan out, it will be after their rookie deal expired and they are on some other team.

Grant WIlliams I am high on because he's not a completely one dimensional player like Carsen Edwards. I'm the highest on Romeo Langford out of the entire class.

The early season struggles have nothing to do with it. People just prospect hump on this board hard. PJ Dozier is awesome, so are Kadeem Allen, Jabari Bird and Abdel Nader.

The port cellar loves its 2nd round picks and undrafted players. Always has.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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They are both 21 year old kids. I think it's very much up for debate who is the "better shooter" or who develops into the better shooter.

Also, to the other person, if Carsen was shooting 38% from 3, he'd still suck as an NBA player. He brings nothing else.
You didn't say "develop." Edwards is a better shooter right now, no question about it. He has more range, a quicker release, and is more repeatable.

And your other point is also untrue. If Carsen were hitting 38% taking 27-32 foot shots, he'd be very valuable. There's no question about that.
 

Cesar Crespo

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You didn't say "develop." Edwards is a better shooter right now, no question about it. He has more range, a quicker release, and is more repeatable.

And your other point is also untrue. If Carsen were hitting 38% taking 27-32 foot shots, he'd be very valuable. There's no question about that.
This is the same board that thinks Collin Sexton is trash so I don't get the opinions on this board at all sometimes. Everyone would be doing cartwheels if Edwards turned into Sexton.
 

shoelace

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I've been lurking for years and I don't recall people pumping up PJ Dozier or Kadeem Allen all that much.

I prefer Perry Dozier over Wanamaker, and Dozier has the benefit of youth. Wanamaker is 29 and garbage.

Dozier is a 6'7 PG with a 6'11 wingspan and a standing reach of 8'5. He's improved his play making skills a lot this year and is a good rebounder for his position. He'll probably be in the same spot Jabari Bird was this year with other teams being interested in him. Dozier is intriguing.
Still feel this way?
 

Cesar Crespo

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I've been lurking for years and I don't recall people pumping up PJ Dozier or Kadeem Allen all that much.



Still feel this way?
You need to lurk harder. The same board was saying Jae Crowder is better than Paul George. Look up Bowiac.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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Tacko is not an NBA player and if Edwards/Waters pan out, it will be after their rookie deal expired and they are on some other team.

Grant WIlliams I am high on because he's not a completely one dimensional player like Carsen Edwards. I'm the highest on Romeo Langford out of the entire class.

The early season struggles have nothing to do with it. People just prospect hump on this board hard. PJ Dozier is awesome, so are Kadeem Allen, Jabari Bird and Abdel Nader.

The port cellar loves its 2nd round picks and undrafted players. Always has.
BTW, of course the "second contract" thing is true for any NBA player. If they don't get a second contract, that means they are out of the league.

But what I'm really wondering about is what do you mean, "pan out"? No one is saying that Tacko, GW, 'Arsen, or Waters are going to be NBA stars. But all four of them will likely be just like Dozier, Allen, and Nader - they will be fringe rotation guys who have to make multiple trips to the G league and hopefully develop their games to be effective complimentary pieces - e.g., Nader and probably Bird had his issues not occurred - but at least can be cheap depth for a contending team - perhaps Allen. That's not a bad thing to have (though as pointed out above, at some point the Cs are going to have to pick and choose them).

BTW, it's funny because if you go back and look at the posts about Nader, people thought he was a stiff who couldn't shoot but he's shooting 44% from 3P this year playing almost 20 mpg for the Thunder.

Danny's pretty good about finding guys who can provide value above their draft pick rank. That's important.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Although to be fair, technically Abdel Nader is an NBA player and he's lighting it up this year in OKC.
 

Cesar Crespo

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BTW, of course the "second contract" thing is true for any NBA player. If they don't get a second contract, that means they are out of the league.

But what I'm really wondering about is what do you mean, "pan out"? No one is saying that Tacko, GW, 'Arsen, or Waters are going to be NBA stars. But all four of them will likely be just like Dozier, Allen, and Nader - they will be fringe rotation guys who have to make multiple trips to the G league and hopefully develop their games to be effective complimentary pieces - e.g., Nader and probably Bird had his issues not occurred - but at least can be cheap depth for a contending team - perhaps Allen. That's not a bad thing to have (though as pointed out above, at some point the Cs are going to have to pick and choose them).
There are people on this board predicting Edwards to shoot over 40% on 10 3 point attempts a game.

I just don't get the point either. Why get all excited about these guys when they are just going to suck for 3-4 years and if they end up good, it will be for some other team? Does it bring some satisfaction to watch a player suck for us and bring value to another team?
 

benhogan

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The early season struggles have nothing to do with it. People just prospect hump on this board hard. PJ Dozier is awesome, so are Kadeem Allen, Jabari Bird and Abdel Nader.

The port cellar loves its 2nd round picks and undrafted players. Always has.
Just the fact you put these guys in the same conversation as Carsen Edwards shows how little you are paying attention to how the Celtics are approaching his development

Just look at how many NBA minutes or games they were on the active roster their rookie year.

Brad/Danny are pretty committed to this kid.

I really don't care who the Port Cellar loves/hates
 

Cesar Crespo

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Just the fact you put these guys in the same conversation as Carsen Edwards shows how little you are paying attention to how the Celtics are approaching his development

Just look at how many NBA minutes or games they were on the active roster their rookie year.

Brad/Danny are pretty committed to this kid.

I really don't care who the Port Cellar loves/hates
Yeah, injuries had nothing to do with the minutes he was getting early on. You look way too much into the development stuff.
 

shoelace

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You need to lurk harder. The same board was saying Jae Crowder is better than Paul George. Look up Bowiac.
Some folks on here weight analytics much more heavily than others in their evaluation of players. I feel like we need to historicize things a bit, as I feel like the way folks use stuff like RPM to talk about players has fundamentally changed. I'm not as knowledgeable about analytics as some other folks on here, so I can't really speak to it as effectively, I don't really understand why some of the inputs for stuff like PIPM are based on per 36 minutes stats and such because I think they tend to overrate roleplayers and big men, but again, not enough of an expert to critique them. That said, I don't feel like anyone actually thought Crowder was better than Paul George.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Some folks on here weight analytics much more heavily than others in their evaluation of players. I feel like we need to historicize things a bit, as I feel like the way folks use stuff like RPM to talk about players has fundamentally changed. I'm not as knowledgeable about analytics as some other folks on here, so I can't really speak to it as effectively, I don't really understand why some of the inputs for stuff like PIPM are based on per 36 minutes stats and such because I think they tend to overrate roleplayers and big men, but again, not enough of an expert to critique them. That said, I don't feel like anyone actually thought he was better than Paul George.
I literally asked him if he was serious and he doubled down. Then again, 2 years ago I thought Kris MIddleton was as good as Bradley Beal. Not as bad, but pretty bad.
 

lovegtm

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Why are you so sure the guy would be on another team for his second contract? The only guys whom the Celtics really let walk were Olynyk and Sullinger. No one wanted Sully and they probably would have matched Olynyk if they were over the cap, rather than clearing room to re-sign Hayward. (More likely Miami knows he’s getting matched and doesn’t make the offer).
 

shoelace

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I literally asked him if he was serious and he doubled down. Then again, 2 years ago I thought Kris MIddleton was as good as Bradley Beal. Not as bad, but pretty bad.
That's clearly a more reasonable take.

I think wade boggs chicken dinner nailed it, though. I really don't think anyone on here has been predicting that the Celtics undrafted/2nd round picks are going to be the next Draymond Green or whatever. I think most of the hope is that these young guys will be solid rotational players for the duration of their rookie contracts. I haven't seen enough of Tacko to know if he can actually be that, but Waters and Edwards have both shown enough that I think it is possible, if things go right for them. Brad was giving Edwards rotational minutes. He's faltered a bit clearly, but I think that shows a lot of confidence from the front office/coach in the player. The other players you mentioned were never really used in that way or given that much rope.
 

Cesar Crespo

79
SoSH Member
Dec 22, 2002
21,588
Why are you so sure the guy would be on another team for his second contract? The only guys whom the Celtics really let walk were Olynyk and Sullinger. No one wanted Sully and they probably would have matched Olynyk if they were over the cap, rather than clearing room to re-sign Hayward. (More likely Miami knows he’s getting matched and doesn’t make the offer).
And Rozier. If these players work out, they will leave for a bigger contract unless they become stars. The Celtics aren't going to pay Edwards $12-15 million to come off the bench.
 

Cesar Crespo

79
SoSH Member
Dec 22, 2002
21,588
They've probably lost more than they've kept, actually. They've kept Tatum, Brown and Smart.

edit: Well, I'm assuming they give Tatum a 2nd contract.
 

lovegtm

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 30, 2013
11,997
So, by your logic, contending/high payroll teams should sell/trade as many 2nd round picks as possible, and use the money and roster spots only for vets?

I’m not even saying you’re wrong, just that it’s a fairly unorthodox position that would need to be thought out more.
 

Cesar Crespo

79
SoSH Member
Dec 22, 2002
21,588
So, by your logic, contending/high payroll teams should sell/trade as many 2nd round picks as possible, and use the money and roster spots only for vets?

I’m not even saying you’re wrong, just that it’s a fairly unorthodox position that would need to be thought out more.
Not really. I think they should spend big money on 3-4 players and fill out the roster with a few vet mins and the rest with draft picks. Pretty much exactly what they are doing. I don't even have a problem with Edwards being on the roster and getting minutes. I just don't think he's going to be good.

Basically, I think Terry Rozier, Semi, Edwards, Waters are the types of guys you let play out their contracts because they are on rookie deals and all NBA teams are going to have 5-7 guys on their roster that aren't materially better than they are. Bring in 6-7 rookies every year and hope 1-2 work out and just keep cycling thru players. You just don't bring them back because that's what bad teams do. They are easily replaced.

If Edwards turns into a 25 point scorer on .500/.400/.900 shooting in season 2, you react accordingly and sign him. If he's scoring 10 points a game on 37% shooting from 3 in the last year of the deal, you let him walk because the Knicks will pay him 4/70.
 

lovegtm

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 30, 2013
11,997
Not really. I think they should spend big money on 3-4 players and fill out the roster with a few vet mins and the rest with draft picks. Pretty much exactly what they are doing. I don't even have a problem with Edwards being on the roster and getting minutes. I just don't think he's going to be good.

Basically, I think Terry Rozier, Semi, Edwards, Waters are the types of guys you let play out their contracts because they are on rookie deals and all NBA teams are going to have 5-7 guys on their roster that aren't materially better than they are. Bring in 6-7 rookies every year and hope 1-2 work out and just keep cycling thru players. You just don't bring them back because that's what bad teams do. They are easily replaced.
I agree, although this is true almost to the point of being tautological. “You let them play their 4 years and if they’re not valuable enough at the new money to bring back, you don’t bring them back.”

I guess this is meant to argue for why you don’t give them much regular season playing time, which I get. However, a) there are plenty of examples of late 1st and 2nd round guys around the league developing into players their teams want back b) binking on just 1-2 of those over the next 10 years changes the prospects of a Brown/Tatum core substantially.
 

Cesar Crespo

79
SoSH Member
Dec 22, 2002
21,588
I agree, although this is true almost to the point of being tautological. “You let them play their 4 years and if they’re not valuable enough at the new money to bring back, you don’t bring them back.”

I guess this is meant to argue for why you don’t give them much regular season playing time, which I get. However, a) there are plenty of examples of late 1st and 2nd round guys around the league developing into players their teams want back b) binking on just 1-2 of those over the next 10 years changes the prospects of a Brown/Tatum core substantially.
Right, but there are also plenty of players who didn't play much at all in their rookie seasons and still developed into really good basketball players. Rozier played 311 minutes his rookie season, VanVleet 294. Carsen is already at 236.

Of course I'm of the belief that practicing and travelling with the NBA team is far more valuable than playing in the G league so getting DNP-CDs isn't a big deal.
 

PedrosRedGlove

Member
SoSH Member
Dec 5, 2005
670
If Edwards turns into a 25 point scorer on .500/.400/.900 shooting in season 2, you react accordingly and sign him. If he's scoring 10 points a game on 37% shooting from 3 in the last year of the deal, you let him walk because the Knicks will pay him 4/70.
I don't think any of us are really thinking too much about 2023 when we discuss Carsen Edwards, his current skillset, and his potential upside. Maybe let his rookie year play out before thinking too hard about his second contract?

Also, did anyone actually predict Edwards would shoot 40% on 10 3PA/g? Even if his long and ultra long range shooting is an elite skill (which it is) I'm not sure anyone expects/ed him to ever be that high volume of a player in the NBA. He's an interesting prospect with a unique skillset: very short with a long wingspan, elite strength, elite quickness (facts from the combine), & elite deep shooting. That's what we see in him.
 

benhogan

Granite Truther
SoSH Member
Nov 2, 2007
20,112
Santa Monica
There are people on this board predicting Edwards to shoot over 40% on 10 3 point attempts a game.
There are ZERO people predicting this. SoSH is pretty good at running poster hyperbole, either way, into the ground

If Edwards turns into a 25 point scorer on .500/.400/.900 shooting in season 2, you react accordingly and sign him. If he's scoring 10 points a game on 37% shooting from 3 in the last year of the deal, you let him walk because the Knicks will pay him 4/70.
while we have our crystal balls out, I'll play along.
1. they could also deal him a year early to the Knicks for their 1st round pick
or
2. they do a S&T with those clueless Knicks

I agree, although this is true almost to the point of being tautological. “You let them play their 4 years and if they’re not valuable enough at the new money to bring back, you don’t bring them back.”
Ok, you got me, I had to look it up....

SoSH Glossary
A tautological argument is otherwise known as a circular argument, that is, one that begins by assuming the very thing that is meant to be proven by the argument itself.
 
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NomarsFool

Member
SoSH Member
Dec 21, 2001
8,159
Of course I'm of the belief that practicing and travelling with the NBA team is far more valuable than playing in the G league so getting DNP-CDs isn't a big deal.
Is it, though? The team doesn't really practice during the regular season. I have no idea if they watch videos and stuff like that where there could be some learning. But, I don't know how a player gets better by shooting baskets before the game, sitting on the bench for 2 hours, and then going home. I know G-league sucks, but at least they are playing basketball.
 

Cesar Crespo

79
SoSH Member
Dec 22, 2002
21,588
There are ZERO people predicting this. SoSH is pretty good at running poster hyperbole, either way, into the ground
People are getting anchored by bosox79’s double down nonsense and letting it drag them down on Carsen. I’ve been surprised at how poorly he’s adjusted to the bench role, but based on college, summer league and preseason I expect him to be a very valuable rotation guard. He’s might not start anywhere because he’s not a PG, and he needs to be at his size, but he’s going to figure out how to come in for 20/night and cook NBA second units. It’s just a matter of time. His ceiling is a guy who can take 10 3’s a game at 40% with passable defense. Thats valuable.
Oh.