Putting the C in 'Arsen

Cesar Crespo

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Carsen Edwards shot under 40% in college 2 of his 3 years. I'm guessing the list of players with sub 40% FG% with successful NBA careers is close to nil, especially when that player is 5'11.

I don't think he's long for the NBA.
 

TripleOT

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agree. Grant will be fine, he's finding his way.

Edwards just looks so flustered. He has to learn how to come off the bench and be a low volume shooter. Maybe a few games in Maine :eek: to regain his shot in-game would be useful. He also could add value by picking up the ball on defense full court, try to be a pest, drain the opponents shot clock and make it difficult for teams to get into their halfcourt offense.

I really like Grant/Carsen a lot and expect they'll be important rotational pieces by season end. I expect Brad will figure out a way to get them minutes and build up their confidence while not hurting the C's chances of winning.
Grant has contributed in a lot of other ways that it's not a big deal that he can't hit a three. Edwards is useless to an NBA team if he can't hit around 40% from three. I don't see him dogging a PG bringing the ball up the court as adding enough value to offset his bricklaying. If he was so devastating at it, all the other team would have to do to neutralize him would be to let someone else bring the ball up the court. No reason for Edwards to get minutes with Wanamaker and Green playing well off the pine. I love the idea of Edwards coming in and heating up from three, but it hasn't happened for him expect for a few minutes at the Carsen Mortgage FieldHouse in Cleveland.
 

Fishy1

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Carsen Edwards shot under 40% in college 2 of his 3 years. I'm guessing the list of players with sub 40% FG% with successful NBA careers is close to nil, especially when that player is 5'11.

I don't think he's long for the NBA.
This is horribly out of context, which has unfortunately become the norm on this board. He was a volume shooter taking an astronomical number of threes per game (10.6!). It's not like he was a bit her out there: he shot under 40% because of the difficulty of those shots. He only managed 44% on 2's but shot 50% the season before. College seasons are short and he was the only talent on his team. I could go on and on.

I mean, we're eight games in. He hit 9 threes in a quarter in preseason action against NBA players. What does "not long for the NBA" even mean? They're gonna cut him tomorrow?
 

lovegtm

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This is horribly out of context, which has unfortunately become the norm on this board. He was a volume shooter taking an astronomical number of threes per game (10.6!). It's not like he was a bit her out there: he shot under 40% because of the difficulty of those shots. He only managed 44% on 2's but shot 50% the season before. College seasons are short and he was the only talent on his team. I could go on and on.

I mean, we're eight games in. He hit 9 threes in a quarter in preseason action against NBA players. What does "not long for the NBA" even mean? They're gonna cut him tomorrow?
Yeah, I'm not super super high on Carsen, but citing raw FG% without dividing it into 2s and 3s barely rises to the level of sentient thought.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Yeah, I'm not super super high on Carsen, but citing raw FG% without dividing it into 2s and 3s barely rises to the level of sentient thought.
He wasn't a terribly good 3 point shooter either and he brings nothing else to the game. If he's not hitting the 3 at a good clip, he's useless. Of course I said Semi would be cut after a year but he's still playing so who knows.

And oh boy, he hit a bunch of 3 point shots in a preseason game. Acie Earl scored 50 in a regular season game.
 

DJnVa

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He wasn't a terribly good 3 point shooter either and he brings nothing else to the game. If he's not hitting the 3 at a good clip, he's useless. Of course I said Semi would be cut after a year but he's still playing so who knows.

And oh boy, he hit a bunch of 3 point shots in a preseason game. Acie Earl scored 50 in a regular season game.
Well damn, I wish the Celtics had access to his college stats before they signed him to that deal that guaranteed 3 years.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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Carsen Edwards shot under 40% in college 2 of his 3 years. I'm guessing the list of players with sub 40% FG% with successful NBA careers is close to nil, especially when that player is 5'11.

I don't think he's long for the NBA.
Wow, nine games in and 'Arsen is already washing out. Tough crowd.

Depending on what 3s he's taking and the volume thereof, he doesn't have to hit 40% to have a big role. He does have to hit more than 25%. I'm pretty confident that he's going to be over 25% by the end of the year but even if he doesn't, I'm sure they are going to give him more than a year to adjust. I've said this before; it's a lot harder to go 1-3 from 3P than it is 2-6.
 

Cesar Crespo

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You realize every team has jags at the end of the bench, yes?

Might as well use it on young guys who can occasionally get hot from 3 or defend a guy like Giannis when needed.
That's fine but I think that's all Edwards is. He's a guy who's most likely playing somewhere else in year 4 and we won't miss him at all. I don't think he's a particularly good basketball player, especially in comparison to Grant Williams. One guy has to make his shots, the other doesn't.

I mean, some would argue Semi has had a successful NBA career so it could just be semantics.

Grant deserves to play every night. Carsen should be getting a bunch of DNPs.
 
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lexrageorge

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That's fine but I think that's all Edwards is. He's a guy who's most likely playing somewhere else in year 4 and we won't miss him at all. I don't think he's a particularly good basketball player, especially in comparison to Grant Williams. One guy has to make his shots, the other doesn't.

I mean, some would argue Semi has had a successful NBA career so it could just be semantics.

Grant deserves to play every night. Carsen should be getting a bunch of DNPs.
Why?

I mean, there's always a few bench minutes available, and even more in blowouts. At this stage of the season, it makes sense for Stevens to give guys like Edwards (and Wannamaker and even Semi) every chance he can just to see what they really have in these players, either for this season or down the road.

There is a continuum between playing every night and never getting off the bench. And, last I checked, some rookies need more than 9 games to develop.
 

lovegtm

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Why?

I mean, there's always a few bench minutes available, and even more in blowouts. At this stage of the season, it makes sense for Stevens to give guys like Edwards (and Wannamaker and even Semi) every chance he can just to see what they really have in these players, either for this season or down the road.

There is a continuum between playing every night and never getting off the bench. And, last I checked, some rookies need more than 9 games to develop.
But he only shot 36% on contested, off-the-dribble 3s at high volume in college! He's a bum!
 

Cesar Crespo

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But he only shot 36% on contested, off-the-dribble 3s at high volume in college! He's a bum!
Do you actually have those stats or are you just assuming every single 3 point shot he took was a contested off the dribble 3? If you have the stats, link me to them please.

The NBA average on 3 point shots is close to 36%. It's not that impressive, especially when you are 5'11 and it's the only thing you bring.
 

joe dokes

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Carsen Edwards shot under 40% in college 2 of his 3 years. I'm guessing the list of players with sub 40% FG% with successful NBA careers is close to nil, especially when that player is 5'11.

I don't think he's long for the NBA.
Though he might be an exception that proves the rule ....JJ Barea was right at 40% in college.
That said, I think Edwards totals last year (41% for his career; 39% last year) are a function of taking 20 shots per game in 35mpg. He had the permanent green light. He may not reach 46% like he did 2 years ago, but there's no reason he can't be closer to that than 39.
 

benhogan

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He wasn't a terribly good 3 point shooter either and he brings nothing else to the game. If he's not hitting the 3 at a good clip, he's useless. Of course I said Semi would be cut after a year but he's still playing so who knows.

And oh boy, he hit a bunch of 3 point shots in a preseason game. Acie Earl scored 50 in a regular season game.
While it was a preseason game, only 1 NBA player has ever hit more 3-pointers in a quarter and none have hit more 30 footers in a quarter in the history of the NBA.

A long-range shooter than can get hot has the potential to extend and alter defenses. It's worth being patient with Edwards. His upside is huge for the amount they are paying him (the proverbial fat tail). This is exactly the kind of gamble Ainge should take with the end of the roster/2nd rounders.

ALSO Carsen had a good game in Cleveland last week that helped them win one of their closer games. Other than that he's been a nervous rookie that has played small minutes and hasn't cost them any wins.

Calling him useless seems overzealous, were you this outspoken during the Draft? Summer League? Pre-season?

OR is this after watching him play his first 86 NBA minutes and 20 3PA?
 

Cesar Crespo

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While it was a preseason game, only 1 NBA player has ever hit more 3-pointers in a quarter and none have hit more 30 footers in a quarter in the history of the NBA.

A long-range shooter than can get hot has the potential to extend and alter defenses. It's worth being patient with Edwards. His upside is huge for the amount they are paying him (the proverbial fat tail). This is exactly the kind of gamble Ainge should take with the end of the roster/2nd rounders.

ALSO Carsen had a good game in Cleveland last week that helped them win one of their closer games. Other than that he's been a nervous rookie that has played small minutes and hasn't cost them any wins.

Calling him useless seems overzealous, were you this outspoken during the Draft? Summer League? or the Pre-season?

OR is this after watching him play his first 86 NBA minutes and 20 3PA?
I didn't call him useless. I said if he's not hitting 3 pointers, he's useless. And judging by everyone's comments, they actually agree with me.

If he shot .400/.350/.780 people on the board would love him even though that's basically Terry Rozier and everyone hates him. He's not really worth talking about it and the vast majority of 2nd rounders are end of the bench fodder;out of the league. It's not that radical a belief.

I don't think he should be seeing any minutes when it actually matters. May as well be DNPs.
 

benhogan

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I don't think he should be seeing any minutes when it actually matters. May as well be DNPs.
Carsen isn't really playing many high leverage minutes. AND I agree he shouldn't play those minutes until he gets comfortable.

BUT Edwards just helped them win a game a week ago. I'm glad Brad isn't so short-sighted to continuously DNP him
 
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NomarsFool

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The rotations have been very inconsistent. Edwards seemed to be an early substitution for a bit, and then became garbage time only. Maybe it's all just experimentation by Brad, but between Edwards, GW, Javonte Green, and Semi - it seems nearly impossible to predict when they will enter the game.
 

Jimbodandy

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Carsen isn't really playing many high leverage minutes, which I agree he shouldn't play those minutes until he gets comfortable.

He just helped them win a game a week ago. I'm glad Brad isn't so short-sighted to continuously DNP him
Carsen has .1 win shares in 8 games, according to BBREF. Dragan Bender accumulated .2 win shares in 171 games.

I'd say that it's a bit early to shovel dirt on the former.
 

PedrosRedGlove

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I didn't call him useless. I said if he's not hitting 3 pointers, he's useless. And judging by everyone's comments, they actually agree with me.

If he shot .400/.350/.780 people on the board would love him even though that's basically Terry Rozier and everyone hates him. He's not really worth talking about it and the vast majority of 2nd rounders are end of the bench fodder;out of the league. It's not that radical a belief.
Did you actually watch any of the preseason? Or follow any of the post-draft stuff on Edwards this summer? Yes, if he's not hitting 3s his value is nil, that almost definitely won't be a problem if you've been watching the kid. You're overreacting to a rookie going through a cold streak in his first 8 games as he adjusts to a bench role he probably has NEVER had in his life. Also, the difference between him being a 25% shooter and a 40% shooter right now is a grand total of 3 made shots.
 

PedroKsBambino

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Carsen has .1 win shares in 8 games, according to BBREF. Dragan Bender accumulated .2 win shares in 171 games.

I'd say that it's a bit early to shovel dirt on the former.
I agree with you that it's way, way, way too early to just Arsen. But being better than Dragan Bender also doesn't show that someone is an NBA player!
 

Jimbodandy

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I agree with you that it's way, way, way too early to just Arsen. But being better than Dragan Bender also doesn't show that someone is an NBA player!
No doubt. Just pointing out that it took a metric shitton more than 8 games for people to give up on Dragan. Some here maybe still haven't.

Kid is out of sorts for sure. Could be rookie stuff, and could be that he can't play. I find it surprising that anyone is jumping to the latter conclusion. To me it's more likely that anyone who has a problem with short players is looking at the world's smallest sample as some kind of validation.
 

TripleOT

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I see the debate as being about Edwards having zero value if he isn't a plus three point shooter. Is anyone really going to debate that?

I think he will eventually find the range from three.
 

lexrageorge

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Brad told us before the season began that he would experiment with many different rotations to start the season. He's followed through with that promise.

Brad has been completely on point this season
+1. This experimentation is absolutely what Brad should be doing at this point in the season.
 

Sprowl

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+1. This experimentation is absolutely what Brad should be doing at this point in the season.
And giving Edwards a few minutes in the second quarter early in the season is the perfect time to see when (if?) he gets hot again, to find out if he can heat up as quickly as a microwave (the essential Vinnie Johnson characteristic), and to find out whether he can handle the ball on offense and pressure the ball on defense. I wouldn't expect sharp team defense from Edwards for at least a year, and I wouldn't cut bait on him for muffing a few rotations in 2019.
 

amarshal2

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People are getting anchored by bosox79’s double down nonsense and letting it drag them down on Carsen. I’ve been surprised at how poorly he’s adjusted to the bench role, but based on college, summer league and preseason I expect him to be a very valuable rotation guard. He’s might not start anywhere because he’s not a PG, and he needs to be at his size, but he’s going to figure out how to come in for 20/night and cook NBA second units. It’s just a matter of time. His ceiling is a guy who can take 10 3’s a game at 40% with passable defense. Thats valuable.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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Kid is out of sorts for sure. Could be rookie stuff, and could be that he can't play. I find it surprising that anyone is jumping to the latter conclusion. To me it's more likely that anyone who has a problem with short players is looking at the world's smallest sample as some kind of validation.
'Arsen is a 5'11" shooters playing among the best guys in the world and for the first time in his life, he is facing multiple defenders who are several to many inches bigger than he is and are the best athletes in the world. He's also coming in for spurts and is trying to play within a team framework instead of being a focal point of the offense.

It's not wonder he's struggling.

I think he'll be fine. He may not be Purdue fine but he'll be playing in the NBA for a long time.
 

benhogan

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'Arsen is a 5'11" shooters playing among the best guys in the world and for the first time in his life, he is facing multiple defenders who are several to many inches bigger than he is and are the best athletes in the world. He's also coming in for spurts and is trying to play within a team framework instead of being a focal point of the offense.

It's not wonder he's struggling.

I think he'll be fine. He may not be Purdue fine but he'll be playing in the NBA for a long time.
I see VanVleet, who scored 107pts his rookie year...Fred had 3 games his rookie year where he scored double-figures, Carsen has done it twice already.

Toronto was wise not to cut bait on their shrimpy guard.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/v/vanvlfr01.html
 
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Cesar Crespo

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No where did I say they should cut Edwards. I just said I don't think he's going to be very good and to offer any value he has to hit the 3.

But VanVleet had 2 years in college where he shot under 40%, so there's at least one example.
 

benhogan

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No where did I say they should cut Edwards. I just said I don't think he's going to be very good and to offer any value he has to hit the 3.

But VanVleet had 2 years in college where he shot under 40%, so there's at least one example.
that's fine, you're completely entitled to your opinion, and you could be right (the odds say 2nd rounders usually don't amount to much).
I like when people take strong opinions around here, it aids in the discussion/thought process.

But when exactly did you go bad on him? draft? pre-season? SL? 10 NBA games in?
 
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Cesar Crespo

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that's fine, you're completely entitled to your opinion, and you could be right (the odds say 2nd rounders usually don't amount to much).
I like when people take strong opinions around here, it aids in the discussion/thought process.

But when exactly did you go bad on him? draft? pre-season? SL? 10 NBA games in?
College but I'm also not a fan of SG in PG bodies. I don't think anyone disagrees he has to hit the 3 to have value in the NBA. That's his game. There's no way around it. You either think he'll hit them at a well enough clip to have some value or you don't. He's not in the NBA for his defense or passing ability.
 

Jimbodandy

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IT4 never approached 40% from 3 in three years of college and would have profiled nicely as a bench scorer under the right circumstances.

Kemba never broke .340 in three years of college from three and has done just fine for himself.

There isn't just one example of short guys learning at the NBA level.

Nobody takes issue with the statement "really short guys must shoot to have value". But this "player X didn't shoot 40 in college so he's toast" stuff is nonsense.
 

benhogan

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College but I'm also not a fan of SG in PG bodies. I don't think anyone disagrees he has to hit the 3 to have value in the NBA. That's his game. There's no way around it. You either think he'll hit them at a well enough clip to have some value or you don't. He's not in the NBA for his defense or passing ability.
agreed, he will have to hit 3s at an above-average clip to have value.

Brad did note his on-ball pressure defense in the Knicks game, so I don't think they view him as a massive defensive liability.
 

Devizier

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'Arsen is a 5'11" shooters playing among the best guys in the world and for the first time in his life, he is facing multiple defenders who are several to many inches bigger than he is and are the best athletes in the world. He's also coming in for spurts and is trying to play within a team framework instead of being a focal point of the offense.
He's taking a lot of shots from not good spots, which makes me think he has a hard time getting to his spots.

Edwards looks pretty sturdy but also a little bit on the heavy side. I wonder if he's just not up to NBA conditioning yet.
 

NomarsFool

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He really likes to chuck them up for 4-5 feet beyond the arc. That was fun in the pre-season when he was hitting them. In the regular season, especially as cold as he's been, I'd like to see better decision making.
 

PedrosRedGlove

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Interesting write-up from Liberty Ballers here: https://www.libertyballers.com/2019/6/8/18657776/carsen-edwards-scouting-report-purdue-boilermakers-philadelphia-76ers-nba-draft.

Article notes the following CE: "At the NBA Draft Combine, Edwards [ranked] seventh in lane agility, third in the shuttle run, and sixth in max bench press among 58 participants."

And also says this about CE's last season:

"Carsen Edwards was basically an elite shooter as a sophomore:
- 40.6% from 3 (6.5 attempts/game, 40% of makes were unassisted)
- 42.4% on 2-point jumpers (74% of makes were unassisted)
- 95th percentile in off-the-dribble jumpers
- 76th percentile on catch-and-shoots"
Just putting this here from the Carsen draft pick thread. He has shown a lot of talent on the basketball court, starting to doubt him based on 86 minutes and 20 shots is really silly.
 

Eddie Jurak

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Edwards: 20 minutes, 7-12 (4-5 from 3), 4 rebounds, 3 assists, 1 steal, 1 TO, 18 points.

That's why they drafted him. Plenty of room for improvement in his game, even tonight.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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Edwards: 20 minutes, 7-12 (4-5 from 3), 4 rebounds, 3 assists, 1 steal, 1 TO, 18 points.

That's why they drafted him. Plenty of room for improvement in his game, even tonight.
He's only shooting 36.0% from 3P land so I suspect he'll be out of the NBA before the end of next year.

Besides, he was -4 on the game so he was as invaluable as Kemba and JB.
 

lovegtm

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The Trevor Ariza Curse for Doubling Down on Dumb Takes with Crap Methodology strikes bosox79!
 

Cesar Crespo

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The Trevor Ariza Curse for Doubling Down on Dumb Takes with Crap Methodology strikes bosox79!
I still don't think he's going to be a good NBA player. He had a good offensive game but pretty much everyone did. It was 140-133.

edit: I have been impressed with his ability to keep possession of the ball though. That was one of the big question marks on him due to having more TO than assists last year. His TO% is only 5.9% which is ridiculously low, especially for a player at 20.0% usage.
 
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CoffeeNerdness

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If Edwards has to guard Jordan Poole tomorrow evening it'll be a match-up of the shortest shorts in the NBA since the mid-80's.
 

benhogan

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I still don't think he's going to be a good NBA player. He had a good offensive game but pretty much everyone did. It was 140-133.

edit: I have been impressed with his ability to keep possession of the ball though. That was one of the big question marks on him due to having more TO than assists last year. His TO% is only 5.9% which is ridiculously low, especially for a player at 20.0% usage.
If Edwards hits deep 3s, it really doesn't matter which team is defending him. for example, his quick release torched Hunter, Guy, Jerome in the tourney.

And if you send multiple players at him 30 ft out, Carsen isn't shy about passing to an open man on a spread floor.

I'm sure the anti-Carsen narrative will turn to his defense like @CellarDoor did in the game thread last night. Even though if you watch the highlights Edwards didn't guard Beal or Rui once.

to DNP Carsen Edwards would be silly and short-sighted
 
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Cesar Crespo

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If Edwards hits deep 3s, it really doesn't matter which team is defending him. for example, his quick release torched Hunter, Guy, Gerome in the tourney.

And if you send multiple players at him 30 ft out, Carsen isn't shy about passing to an open man on a spread floor.
If things work out really well, I have him compared to players like JR Smith, Ben Gordon, Eric Gordon. Maybe he's going to be a lot better defensively than I give him credit for or develop a decent passing game.

Players like that are fine in the right role, even if they are maddening to watch because if there shots aren't falling they are bringing nothing else.

I know your comp is VanVleet. If he develops into a VanVleet level passer, that would help.
 

lovegtm

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If things work out really well, I have him compared to players like JR Smith, Ben Gordon, Eric Gordon. Maybe he's going to be a lot better defensively than I give him credit for or develop a decent passing game.

Players like that are fine in the right role, even if they are maddening to watch because if there shots aren't falling they are bringing nothing else.

I know your comp is VanVleet. If he develops into a VanVleet level passer, that would help.
JR Smith, Ben Gordon or Eric Gordon offensively would be great outcomes.

I agree that Van Vleet is a poor comp offensively—I think the idea is that Van Vleet has found a way at his size to not drag the team down on the other end.

Once again I have to mention how much IT scarred us wrt shorter players. Most small guys aren’t THAT small, and are able to be sort of competent defenders if they’re smart and compete. Watching him last night all the PTSD came back—he’s really, really bad on that end. And his on/off defensive numbers with the Wiz this year are comical.
 

CoffeeNerdness

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I think you're really underselling the entirety of his game. Did you tune in last night? He made some nice passes, hit some shots inside the line, and played ok D (I recall one terrible play). Tommy highlighted him several times for making nice plays that aren't ones that show up in the stat sheet. He looked solid af.
 

mostman

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I think you're really underselling the entirety of his game. Did you tune in last night? He made some nice passes, hit some shots inside the line, and played ok D (I recall one terrible play). Tommy highlighted him several times for making nice plays that aren't ones that show up in the stat sheet. He looked solid af.
He really didn't play OK D. If you just focus on him on defense, a lot of the breakdowns start by him losing his man. He's also a step slow and his guard can quickly get around him. He needs a tremendous amount of work just to become average.
 

Cesar Crespo

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I think you're really underselling the entirety of his game. Did you tune in last night? He made some nice passes, hit some shots inside the line, and played ok D (I recall one terrible play). Tommy highlighted him several times for making nice plays that aren't ones that show up in the stat sheet. He looked solid af.
The 2nd half. I don't think anyone bothered playing defense yesterday so I can't judge him on his D. He hit a bunch of 3s but also drove a few times with ugly results.