Projecting the opening-day roster

phenweigh · Apr 1, 2015

Are you projecting Nava is released?

Here's my pitching projection:

[SIZE=12pt]STARTING PITCHERS[/SIZE]
[SIZE=12pt]Clay Buchholz[/SIZE]
[SIZE=12pt]Joe Kelly[/SIZE]
[SIZE=12pt]Justin Masterson[/SIZE]
[SIZE=12pt]Wade Miley[/SIZE]
[SIZE=12pt]Rick Porcello[/SIZE]

[SIZE=12pt]RELIEF PITCHERS[/SIZE]
[SIZE=12pt]Craig Breslow[/SIZE]
[SIZE=12pt]Tommy Lane[/SIZE]
[SIZE=12pt]Edward Mujica[/SIZE]
[SIZE=12pt]Alexi Ogando[/SIZE]
[SIZE=12pt]Robbie Ross[/SIZE]
[SIZE=12pt]Junichi Tazawa[/SIZE]
[SIZE=12pt]Anthony Varvaro[/SIZE]

With Wright in as a starter if they decide to start Kelly on the DL.

Sprowl · Apr 2, 2015

Broken out of the spring training thread.

benhogan · Apr 2, 2015

geoduck no quahog said:
I'm going to predict the opening day position player roster. Anyone care to guess about the pitchers?

Starters:

Hanigan, Napoli, Pedroia, Sandoval, Bogaerts
Ramirez, Betts, Victorino
Ortiz

4th OF: Castillo
5th OF / 1B: Craig
B/U C: Leon
UI: Holt

Victorino starts and either plays himself out of the position or doesn't. He's a perfect 4th outfielder.

Craig gets the nod over Nava (even though Nava is a LHH). Craig's potential value (including the remaining years on his contract) is just too valuable to give up on. Maybe Craig brings back something of great value in a future trade.

I'm not sure how you could leave Nava off this roster? We need his LH bat.

Castillo gets the call when the inevitable injury occurs.

I'm sure I won't be alone in opening up the Pawtucket box score every morning, several players to keep an eye on...

mauf · Apr 2, 2015

Castillo to Pawtucket is official.

http://gradingonthecurve.com/2015/04/02/red-sox-rusney-castillo-to-start-2015-in-triple-a/

Edit: Sorry, didn't recognize this had been reported in the ST megathread.

Corsi · Apr 3, 2015

Nick Cafardo ‏@nickcafardo 12s13 seconds ago Florida, USAView translation
Koji Uehara and Joe Kelly on DL but could be eligible by April 11

Nick Cafardo ‏@nickcafardo now Gateway, FL
Brandon Workman and Matt Barnes optioned to Pawtucket. Barnes as a starter. Workman as a reliever.

Sprowl · Apr 3, 2015

Corsi said:
Nick Cafardo ‏@nickcafardo 12s13 seconds ago Florida, USAView translation
Koji Uehara and Joe Kelly on DL but could be eligible by April 11

Nick Cafardo ‏@nickcafardo now Gateway, FL
Brandon Workman and Matt Barnes optioned to Pawtucket. Barnes as a starter. Workman as a reliever.

I'm pleased that Workman has been assigned his best role, but a little surprised that Barnes is not a reliever too. Both of them have the velocity, but not the variety, and Barnes' stamina is in question too.

Red(s)HawksFan · Apr 3, 2015

Sprowl said:
I'm pleased that Workman has been assigned his best role, but a little surprised that Barnes is not a reliever too. Both of them have the velocity, but not the variety, and Barnes' stamina is in question too.

With Wright making the big league roster, there's a rotation spot open in Pawtucket. Barnes makes the most sense since he's been primarily a starter all the way through the minors (sure Workman has too, but he appears ticketed for an MLB bullpen career-wise). And it's a lot easier to move a guy from the rotation to the bullpen than vice versa, especially this time of the year.

Even being in the Pawtucket rotation, I can see Barnes being one of the first call-ups to fill in in the pen when the need inevitably arises.

ivanvamp · Apr 3, 2015

I hate Castillo being down, but this is a long-term move so I can't be too upset. If Victorino plays well, then great. If he plays poorly, then they probably won't wait THAT long to make a move (assuming Castillo or JBJ are really playing well in Pawtucket). It's the middle ground that's the problem. If Victorino is so-so. Not very good, but not awful. Castillo or JBJ (Castillo really) probably could do better, but maybe not by a ton, but Victorino hasn't played well enough to generate much on the trade market. That's the problematic point.

johnnywayback · Apr 3, 2015

Sprowl said:
I'm pleased that Workman has been assigned his best role, but a little surprised that Barnes is not a reliever too. Both of them have the velocity, but not the variety, and Barnes' stamina is in question too.

Me, too. My guess is that they saw something in his approach that may have led to his excellent performance this spring (beyond the mere fact that he was pitching in relief) and want to see if it translates into better results as a starter.

Or just that it's easier to transition him from the rotation to the bullpen if that's what the major league club needs than vice versa.

phenweigh · Apr 4, 2015

Does Wright get "Ace" t-shirts?

Laser Show · Apr 4, 2015

johnnywayback said:
Me, too. My guess is that they saw something in his approach that may have led to his excellent performance this spring (beyond the mere fact that he was pitching in relief) and want to see if it translates into better results as a starter.

Or just that it's easier to transition him from the rotation to the bullpen if that's what the major league club needs than vice versa.

I think it was in Speier's 108 stitches email, supposedly Barnes' curve has taken a big step forward this spring, giving him 3 good offerings with his fastball and change.

EDIT: I'll try to find the link when I get a chance

Savin Hillbilly · Apr 4, 2015

johnnywayback said:
Me, too. My guess is that they saw something in his approach that may have led to his excellent performance this spring (beyond the mere fact that he was pitching in relief) and want to see if it translates into better results as a starter.

Or just that it's easier to transition him from the rotation to the bullpen if that's what the major league club needs than vice versa.

As somebody noted in another thread, this may be partly about the fact that the Sox don't have much ML-ready righthanded SP depth right now, because they traded it all away over the winter.

NDame616 · Apr 5, 2015

If Victorino plays OK he's trade bait and the Red Sox eat salary and move him, and bring Castillo up. Castillo's injury sorted it out for the short term, but the Red Sox blew him through the system to get him a few ABs in the majors so he could learn things like "what John Farrell looks like". When they signed him last year, I think they had ever intention of Victorino not making it through camp healthy (he made it through camp not being productive, though).

If Victorino stinks, he's DFA'ed or traded and the Red Sox eat his whole salary
If he's OK, he's traded and the Red Sox eat a lot of salary (although him on a 1-year deal at 13M isn't terrible)
If he's great, then.....eh I don't see that as a viable option anyways

benhogan · Apr 5, 2015

Not sure where this goes, but want to discuss the opening day line up.

This is what I'd like to see:

Betts, CF
Pedroia, 2B
~~Ortiz, DH~~
Ramirez, LF
Napoli, 1B
Sandoval, 3B
Victorino, RF
Bogaerts, SS
Hannigan, C
Buchholz, P

I have a feeling Farrell will go with Pablo in the 5 hole, but think we'd be better served putting our 2 best LHH's (Papi and Pablo) a couple of hitters away from each other thus avoiding a late inning LOOGY getting extended use. In addition to that, batting Pablo #6 may take a little of the initial pressure off.

~~Facing a LH like Hamels also adds into the equation of batting Napoli a spot higher (plus throw in a hot spring for Nap).~~

EDIT: MY BLUNDER, opening up in a NL park means no Papi or Napoli. I think Nap gets the nod with Hamels pitching. Still would like to see Napoli bat higher then Sandoval.

Montana Fan · Apr 5, 2015

Aren't they opening in an NL park?

Red(s)HawksFan · Apr 5, 2015

benhogan said:
Not sure where this goes, but want to discuss the opening day line up.

This is what I'd like to see:

Betts, CF
Pedroia, 2B
Ortiz, DH
Ramirez, LF
Napoli, 1B
Sandoval, 3B
Victorino, RF
Bogaerts, SS
Hannigan, C

I have a feeling Farrell will go with Pablo in the 5 hole, but think we'd be better served putting our 2 best LHH's (Papi and Pablo) a couple of hitters away from each other thus avoiding a late inning LOOGY getting extended use. In addition to that, batting Pablo #6 may take a little of the initial pressure off.

Facing a LH like Hamels also adds into the equation of batting Napoli a spot higher (plus throw in a hot spring for Nap).

Based on the spring lineups the last few days, Sandoval is probably going to be in the fifth spot behind Ramirez. Otherwise you've nailed the lineup for the home opener. But they're opening in Philly, where Ortiz won't be able to DH. I'd guess that just removes Napoli from Monday's lineup and shifts everyone up one from there.

Betts
Pedroia
Ortiz
Ramirez
Sandoval
Victorino
Bogaerts
Hannigan
Buchholz

benhogan · Apr 5, 2015

Montana Fan said:
Aren't they opening in an NL park?

Yep. Blunder on my part

RIrooter09 · Apr 5, 2015

Hamels is tough on righties with his change up so Ortiz should get the opening day start with Napoli filling in on Wednesday against Lee.

Hendu Candu · Apr 5, 2015

Hamels is the only lefty in the Philly rotation. Sentimentality aside, it seems if they're going to sit Ortiz at least one game, that would be the one that makes sense.

Red(s)HawksFan · Apr 5, 2015

RIrooter09 said:
Hamels is tough on righties with his change up so Ortiz should get the opening day start with Napoli filling in on Wednesday against Lee.

Lee is, shockingly, on the DL. He won't be starting against the Red Sox or anyone else for at least a couple months (he's on the 60-day DL).

E5 Yaz · Apr 5, 2015

GordonEdes Gordon Edes
Ortiz to be in starting lineup against Hamels, Farrell says

RIrooter09 · Apr 5, 2015

Red(s)HawksFan said:
Lee is, shockingly, on the DL. He won't be starting against the Red Sox or anyone else for at least a couple months (he's on the 60-day DL).

Don't know how I missed that. Thanks.

FanSinceBoggs · Apr 5, 2015

NDame616 said:
If Victorino plays OK he's trade bait and the Red Sox eat salary and move him, and bring Castillo up. Castillo's injury sorted it out for the short term, but the Red Sox blew him through the system to get him a few ABs in the majors so he could learn things like "what John Farrell looks like". When they signed him last year, I think they had ever intention of Victorino not making it through camp healthy (he made it through camp not being productive, though).

If Victorino stinks, he's DFA'ed or traded and the Red Sox eat his whole salary
If he's OK, he's traded and the Red Sox eat a lot of salary (although him on a 1-year deal at 13M isn't terrible)
If he's great, then.....eh I don't see that as a viable option anyways

I hated the idea of sending down Castillo. I don't know why the Red Sox didn't trade Victorino and cash for a bag of balls. If they could find a team willing to pick up a few million of Victorino's contract, that is money saved for the organization and the better player, Castillo, is on the team. Dreadful decision. They have too many outfielders, a situation they created, and then couldn't find a way out of their own mess.

Plympton91 · Apr 5, 2015

They are trying to maximize their return on their assets. If Vic plays well for a month and Castllo rips up Paw, they can save money and get a real prospect If Vic plays well and Castillo struggles, they win. If Vic plays poorly and Castillo plays poorly, they're no worse off than they were now. If Vic plays poorly and Castilo plays well, then they make a move at th end of 6 weeks having spotted the division a win or so. Keeping Vic and starting him for a while makes the most sense regardless of how much people want to see the shiny new bauble.

Projecting the opening-day roster

not particularly consistent

Member

mikey lowell of the sandbox

Granite Truther

Anderson Cooper × Mr. Rogers

not particularly consistent

isn't shy about blowing his wad early

mikey lowell of the sandbox

Member

captain obvious

Member

Member

Member

loves the secret sauce

will bailey

Granite Truther

Member

Member

Granite Truther

Alvin

Member

Member

polka king

Alvin

seantwo

bubble burster