Rather than projecting numbers I simply project a pleasant surprise for this gifted athlete. I believe he will eventually perform at the plate just like seasoned Grady because I want to believe his athletic ability is still intact. Grady will smell success once he gets his timing down. He is a true thoroughbred. Endurance in the field on defense and on the base paths are the major issues dependent on his physical limitations. I think Grady will be good at the plate as long as his wheels and back don't betray him. I prefer to see Grady play about half the time in CF if possible to slowly rebuild his career. How that will affect the roster I do not know.
Projecting Sizemore
- Thread starter bosox1025
- Start date
- Status
I say this as someone who really likes Jackie Bradley Jr. (hell, he's on my dynasty league roster), but this decision boils down to two things: contract status and upside.
Bradley can be optioned to the minors, and he's going to be on this team for a long time to come. Sizemore can't. He's a lottery ticket, and the team will rightly want to see if it can hit the jackpot. Advantage Sizemore.
Offensively, Bradley's top-end projection is probably something in the .750-.770 range. Sizemore has, in the past, delivered significantly better offensive seasons than that and could produce in the .820-.850 range. There's simply more oomph in his bat -- this is a guy who had five consecutive seasons with 22, 28, 24, 33, and 18 home runs before injuries struck. Bradley simply does not have that kind of power in his bat, and he never will. Sizemore was talked about as an MVP candidate back in those days, and Bradley will most likely never be in that kind of conversation.
If Sizemore is healthy, he has the most upside, so the team should give him a chance and know that if he can't handle the rigors of the season, or if he's underperforming, they have a terrific option in the minors. It's going to be hard on Bradley, sure, but it's best for the team.
Bradley can be optioned to the minors, and he's going to be on this team for a long time to come. Sizemore can't. He's a lottery ticket, and the team will rightly want to see if it can hit the jackpot. Advantage Sizemore.
Offensively, Bradley's top-end projection is probably something in the .750-.770 range. Sizemore has, in the past, delivered significantly better offensive seasons than that and could produce in the .820-.850 range. There's simply more oomph in his bat -- this is a guy who had five consecutive seasons with 22, 28, 24, 33, and 18 home runs before injuries struck. Bradley simply does not have that kind of power in his bat, and he never will. Sizemore was talked about as an MVP candidate back in those days, and Bradley will most likely never be in that kind of conversation.
If Sizemore is healthy, he has the most upside, so the team should give him a chance and know that if he can't handle the rigors of the season, or if he's underperforming, they have a terrific option in the minors. It's going to be hard on Bradley, sure, but it's best for the team.
metaprosthesis said:
I think a lot of players at the minor league level are ready to contribute (whatever you mean by that - I'm going to assume that you mean play "non-terribly") at the MLB league level, now. Bill James used to say that almost any below average MLB player could be replaced by a minor leaguer without significantly lowering the talent level of the league. Cechhini projects to be an averagish major leaguer by most systems. It may not be fair, but for most minor leaguers, being "ready" isn't good enough to break onto a major league roster. Hell, in a lot of ordinary employment situations, being "ready" for a higher level position isn't good enough. You either have to be project to be at least average WITH upside AND have an opening at the position you want, or you have to play so incredibly well that you force the hand of your employer that you make an established person move. That would be Nomar in 1996 here (343/387/733). That's overwhelming. Or you have to just be on a lousy team that has an opening. That's how guys like Neifi Perez have a career.
Look, if I'm an employer and I have the option, I'd like to see a guy try hard to earn his spot and really impress me rather than just be "good enough to contribute." But of course, you don't always have that luxury. Sometimes you have to go with whatever chump shows up. I think Bradley's going to have a solid career as a MLB CF, but I think the Red Sox want him to really earn it. It's a nice situation to be in.
EDIT: I should say that I don't really see a scenario where Bradley isn't on the team. Sizemore seems more likely to turn into a pile of dust than be an everyday CF, and I don't think the Red Sox trust Nava enough in RF to have Victorino shift to CF for any length of time.
EDIT2: Oh, and for Sizemore, I'll say 262/329/414, in let's say....131 PA.
metaprosthesis said:
I couldn't agree more. For more context, hitters in the 2013 International League, as a group, were 27.1 years old and hit .255/.328/.384/.712. Bradley hit for +.020/+.046/+.085/+.131 relative to his league. He had the 18th-best OPS in the league. As a 23 year-old, glove-first CF.
The top-50 International League batters by OPS are mostly organizational filler/ex-prospects in their mid to late 20s: guys like Travis Ishikawa or Josh Thole or Danny Valencia. There are only a handful of guys 23 or younger: Avisail Garcia (.960 OPS, 22, elite corner outfield prospect), Wil Myers (.876, 22, elite corner outfield prospect), Cody Asche (.837, 23, good 3B prospect), Xander Bogaerts (.822 OPS, 20, bluechip SS prospect), L.J. Hoes (.808, 23, good corner outfield prospect), and Nick Castellanos (.793, 21, elite LF/3B prospect).
And Bradley: JBJ's .842 OPS was a line from an up-the-middle player that compares well to the lines of elite corner outfield prospects in the league. He's not quite Myers with the bat, but Myers isn't nearly Bradley with the glove. He's not quite as young as the truly elite prospects in the IL, but he hit better than the other hitters his age in that league, regardless of position.
alwyn96 said:
Sure, but how often do we see players perform like the numbers you cite for Nomar? Is that a realistic expectation of the level of performance required of a minor leaguer for promotion? That's a pretty obvious situation and not totally relevant to what I was saying. If people expected Bradley to do that last year, they were delusional.
Anyhow, I made no claims about who should get the job (though John Farrell has), but rather pointed out that claiming that JBJ was "underwhelming" or in any way disappointing in AAA last year is disingenuous. The kid put up the second best OPS on the Paw Sox while playing above average defense. He is a good player. I can't tell if you are suggesting that JBJ doesn't "project to be at least average WITH upside AND have an opening" (which seems blatantly false) or if you are just poking at the semantics of "ready to contribute" (which, I admit, is a cliche, used here to in the interest of eschewing prolixity).
TheoShmeo said:
Well, since JBJ lacks a significant ML track record, and since the drivelinebaseball MLE calculator is down (waaaah!) and I don't know of another publicly available one, all I have to go on are Oliver Steamer etc. and what his ml numbers say about his skill set. Steamer has him at .258/.334/.401, Oliverat .254/.329/.419, and ZiPS at .245/.322/.375. Aside from the pessimistic ZiPS power projection, the projections more or less agree: he'll bat around .250 and his OBP will be .330-ish.
When I plug in a .320 BABIP, 23% K rate, 10% BB rate and XBH numbers in the 22/3/8 range for 400 PA--all of which seem pretty reasonable--the slash line I come out with is .254/.338/.400.
Was he seasoned with just salt and pepper or is there a special seasoning rub they use for thoroughbreds?Papi's fan said:
Please add some substance when you post here. Wishes and beliefs aren't good for much unless you click your heels together three times.
I'm going to leave the numeric forecasting to you smart guys, but fwiw, I don't think forecasting Sizemore for more than a handful of games in center is a good idea - and I don't think forecasting Vic for more than a handful in center is a good idea, either. If Bradley can field as well as is expected, he'll see the vast majority of innings in CF, unless his ML bat is as putrid in 2014 as it was in 2013.
I think the projections need to start with LF. Both Nava and Gomes can hit, but neither is great with the glove, and either would be a liability in CF or RF. If the answers to "can Grady still cover enough ground to be an adequate fill-in in RF/CF?" and "can Grady hit enough to take LF time away from Nava/Gomes?" are yes and yes, I can see him making the team and playing a real role (and combining with JBJ and Vic to contribute great outfield defense). In that case, I'd like to think that Savin's projections are somewhat low. If the answer to either question is "no", then the projections are likely moot, as I'd think that the Sox would be comfortable enough with Nava/Gomes/Carp to keep them on the ML roster instead of Grady.
Got to say, I'm rooting for him, but there are a lot of "ifs" there...
I think the projections need to start with LF. Both Nava and Gomes can hit, but neither is great with the glove, and either would be a liability in CF or RF. If the answers to "can Grady still cover enough ground to be an adequate fill-in in RF/CF?" and "can Grady hit enough to take LF time away from Nava/Gomes?" are yes and yes, I can see him making the team and playing a real role (and combining with JBJ and Vic to contribute great outfield defense). In that case, I'd like to think that Savin's projections are somewhat low. If the answer to either question is "no", then the projections are likely moot, as I'd think that the Sox would be comfortable enough with Nava/Gomes/Carp to keep them on the ML roster instead of Grady.
Got to say, I'm rooting for him, but there are a lot of "ifs" there...
For the record, to contribute to the thread (hopefully), here's my projection:
Back when he was healthy, he was a good on base guy with good power. I suspect he'll stay away from trying to steal too many bases. Kind of goes without saying that no one's projection is worth a whole lot given that no one knows whether or not he'll be on the field much or whether or not when he's on the field, his ability has changed significantly due to the effect of the injuries and (to a lesser degree in my mind) the time off.
His average (ish) slash line during his 4 peak years (age 22-25 seasons) was:
.280/.370/.490 with roughly 40 doubles, 25 hr and 30 or so stolen bases.
A healthy player age 31 who averaged those kind of numbers age 22-25 seasons could reasonably be expected to be putting up similar numbers still. Performance peaks around age 27 or 28 (right?) depending on what you read. Given that, his ceiling projection would be the numbers above. I would assume that the cumulative effect of the injuries is going to drag those numbers down a touch even within the realm of whatever a baseline 'healthy' is for him now. Maybe .270/350/450. To me, that's his realistic ceiling. His floor sucks so I don't really see the point in discussing it. Trying to guess how much of the season he plays seems like a waste of time.
Back when he was healthy, he was a good on base guy with good power. I suspect he'll stay away from trying to steal too many bases. Kind of goes without saying that no one's projection is worth a whole lot given that no one knows whether or not he'll be on the field much or whether or not when he's on the field, his ability has changed significantly due to the effect of the injuries and (to a lesser degree in my mind) the time off.
His average (ish) slash line during his 4 peak years (age 22-25 seasons) was:
.280/.370/.490 with roughly 40 doubles, 25 hr and 30 or so stolen bases.
A healthy player age 31 who averaged those kind of numbers age 22-25 seasons could reasonably be expected to be putting up similar numbers still. Performance peaks around age 27 or 28 (right?) depending on what you read. Given that, his ceiling projection would be the numbers above. I would assume that the cumulative effect of the injuries is going to drag those numbers down a touch even within the realm of whatever a baseline 'healthy' is for him now. Maybe .270/350/450. To me, that's his realistic ceiling. His floor sucks so I don't really see the point in discussing it. Trying to guess how much of the season he plays seems like a waste of time.
Realistically, can JBJ actually be sent down to the minors? Asking Sizemore to immediately step in and play centerfield every day seems unrealistic. I'm thinking he'll need 2-3 days off a week at first. Do we really want Victorino in centerfield and Nava in right field 2-3 times a week? And what would be our bench options to fill in at center in that scenario?
It seems a lot more likely that we trade Carp. He has an Iglesias-like BABIP last year (at the time that we sold high on him), so we'd be selling high. And now that Nava plays first base, they're kind of redundant. That would allow Sizemore to slowly work his way in to regular playing time. And if by some miracle, he does regain his previous form, then he can compete for a starting job.
It seems a lot more likely that we trade Carp. He has an Iglesias-like BABIP last year (at the time that we sold high on him), so we'd be selling high. And now that Nava plays first base, they're kind of redundant. That would allow Sizemore to slowly work his way in to regular playing time. And if by some miracle, he does regain his previous form, then he can compete for a starting job.
Hoplite said:
It just doesn't seem like the Red Sox MO to liquidate depth when there are scenarios under which the team could retain control of all players - especially if it calls for trading a cost-controlled asset (Carp) and using his roster spot for a 1-year reclamation project on someone who hasn't been a healthy ML player since President Bush was in office. I would have to think a few years of control over Carp would have to be worth more than the Sizemore's potential 1-year upside + whatever you could get for Carp in a trade.
I imagine they will try to keep all of them for as long as possible into the season (using options or rehab stints) until something forces their hands. There has to be pretty decent likelihood of injury (Sizemore, Victorino, Napoli, Ortiz), regression (Nava, Victorino), or rookie struggles (JBJ) such that you'd want to keep Carp around. The Sox are pretty thin when it comes OF depth (Brentz, Hassan), as well as 1B depth after Nava.
I mean, realistically, what could they get for Carp in a trade that would make it worth their while to roll the dice on Sizemore/JBJ starting the season in the majors?
Puffy said:
They can retain control of all players by sending Nava down and if--as seems likely--Sizemore isn't able to play every day, he's effectively taking up a bench spot and since Sizemore and Nava are both most effective against right handed pitchers, it makes good roster sense.
I suspect it will come down to whether they want Nava or Carp. Nava can play first while Carp can't really play the outfield well at all, and Nava has the bonus of having the opposite handedness of Mike Napoli. Of course, Napoli aint no slouch from his "bad" side so I rather strongly suspect that should everyone be healthy, Nava's going to enjoy more time at the bucket.
Puffy said:
What about the Iglesias example that I alluded to? The new ownership has shown a willingness to deal from a position of depth when they think that player's stock is high. As far as what kind of return Carp would get, that's a really good question. Maybe some pitching depth along the lines of Stolmy Pimentel (although it would admittedly be tough to fit him on the AAA roster). Maybe a toolsy middle infielder type like the Brewers' Orlando Arcia?
I'd love to get Melancon back (I promise I'm not trolling) but that's not happening.
I don't see Sizemore playing everyday CF and sending JBJ down. But we end up with a player too much, and the sell high if you are convinced of Sizemore's health (for the moment) is Carp.
Sizemore has a history of being really really good at baseball when healthy. As a healthy player, as a triple-A young player, wherever you compare or project, he is better at baseball than JBJ.
Two things can stop him from being a 400+ AB .800+ OPS player: another injury/health issue that he seems to be avoiding now. I put him in the fragile and not unlucky category, but even for those guys I think that is a well under 50% thing. The second is if his age/time away/minor under the surface health issues prevent him from being good at baseball when healthy, or being all the way healthy when perceived as healthy. This was a big doubt coming into spring, but I think has to be put aside now. He isn't a shell of what he was, or lost too many steps to perform, and as such, I'm gradually in the very bullish camp.
I think I would take the over if the line was 250 PAs, probably even 300 PAs, and might hold up on 350 or 400 because of the chance he injures himself, not his role if he maintains his current health level. And I see him as an .800 OPS guy when healthy, especially because need for rest will insulate him from the hardest matchups he would face as a fulltime player.
325 PAs at .828 as the Sizemore number I will hold myself to as my official preseason projection.
There are 2000 outfield PAs to go around, plus a few at DH and a few at 1B. That isn't going to work for six guys obviously, but I think dealing Carp makes more sense than demoting JBJ, and all five of Vic/Nava/Gomes/JBJ/Sizemore can get at least 300PAs and rotate through based on health and performance over the course of the season, which means that you don't stunt JBJ's development, and he continues to get the right to turn 300PAs and pinch running / defensive replacement into 600PAs and fulltime starter if he performs.
Sizemore has a history of being really really good at baseball when healthy. As a healthy player, as a triple-A young player, wherever you compare or project, he is better at baseball than JBJ.
Two things can stop him from being a 400+ AB .800+ OPS player: another injury/health issue that he seems to be avoiding now. I put him in the fragile and not unlucky category, but even for those guys I think that is a well under 50% thing. The second is if his age/time away/minor under the surface health issues prevent him from being good at baseball when healthy, or being all the way healthy when perceived as healthy. This was a big doubt coming into spring, but I think has to be put aside now. He isn't a shell of what he was, or lost too many steps to perform, and as such, I'm gradually in the very bullish camp.
I think I would take the over if the line was 250 PAs, probably even 300 PAs, and might hold up on 350 or 400 because of the chance he injures himself, not his role if he maintains his current health level. And I see him as an .800 OPS guy when healthy, especially because need for rest will insulate him from the hardest matchups he would face as a fulltime player.
325 PAs at .828 as the Sizemore number I will hold myself to as my official preseason projection.
There are 2000 outfield PAs to go around, plus a few at DH and a few at 1B. That isn't going to work for six guys obviously, but I think dealing Carp makes more sense than demoting JBJ, and all five of Vic/Nava/Gomes/JBJ/Sizemore can get at least 300PAs and rotate through based on health and performance over the course of the season, which means that you don't stunt JBJ's development, and he continues to get the right to turn 300PAs and pinch running / defensive replacement into 600PAs and fulltime starter if he performs.
Hoplite said:
First base isn't really a position of depth. It's Napoli, who is good on both sides of the ball, Nava, who has very little experience at the position, and really isn't someone you want out there against lefties, Carp isn't good against lefties and is a crappy fielder.
After them we have what, Lavarnway who hasn't even had a full spring training of playing first and what else?
Now sure, it's first base, and a lot of the minor leaguers who end up being first basemen in the majors don't move there until they're almost ready to come up, but we don't have the depth at first that we had at short last year.
It's worth noting that Nava may be established enough that he would not pass through OAW. There are a lot of teams that could use Nava as a starter and would likely be more than happy to do so.
Yep, this is exactly what I think. If JBJ is in AAA then what's our outfield when Sizemore needs to rest (which will be something close to every other day)? Victorino center Nava right Gomes or Carp left is unacceptable defensively IMO. And Victorino isn't exactly Cal Ripken either, you gotta count on him getting a day to day once every week or two.Hoplite said:
I also think that it's important that the organization commits to JBJ. Honestly, I want him in there every day, by which I mean not literally every day but in there like an every day player - 80% of the time. I'd prefer something like JBJ 80% (all CF), Victorino 80% (20% CF, 60% RF), Sizemore 50% (40% RF, 10% LF), with Nava and Gomes splitting the rest of LF and getting a little action at 1B or DH.
I just don't see the room for Carp. Our depth is getting a little ridiculous and I have to think there's something more valuable that the Pirates have than what Mike Carp is likely to bring to this team in 2014.
PrometheusWakefield said:
Can we really count on Grady holding up though? He has played a handful of games in ST in warm weather and one or two back to back partial games, and while its great he has looked good it says nothing about his durability. Also, isn't Carp the primary back up at 1B for Napoli? What exactly do the Red Sox need at the moment that Carp would bring?
Other than Brentz I don't see a lot of OF depth in Pawtucket so I guess I don't agree the depth is ridiculous. Last year the team was rather fortunate in terms of in injuries to starting postion players, especially the OF/1B, aside from a few short stints on the sidelines for Victorino and Ellsbury. Can't count on that every year.
Dealing Carp might be the right move, but if that's the path Cherington takes, I hope he has reason to be confident in Ortiz' health.
I hope that Bogaerts and Middlebrooks will contribute meaningful SLG this season, but we're an Achilles injury away from finding ourselves suddenly short a left-handed power threat. Big picture, it just doesn't seem to make sense to deal an arb1 lefty slugger just now. We're going to need one sooner or (hopefully) later.
If I deal Carp, I want to collect a top-100 corner/DH prospect with power potential, preferably a few years younger than Carp. Basically, I want Michael Choice or a slightly-younger equivalent, preferably who hits from the left side. He was just dealt straight up for Craig Gentry a few months ago, so I don't think he's out of the question, value-wise, for someone like Carp, even if he personally may not be available.
edit: After posting this, I thought to myself, isn't that basically Bryce Brentz? Sort of. I want a better, younger, left-handed Brentz back for Carp. So really, I want a healthy Ryan Kalish.
I hope that Bogaerts and Middlebrooks will contribute meaningful SLG this season, but we're an Achilles injury away from finding ourselves suddenly short a left-handed power threat. Big picture, it just doesn't seem to make sense to deal an arb1 lefty slugger just now. We're going to need one sooner or (hopefully) later.
If I deal Carp, I want to collect a top-100 corner/DH prospect with power potential, preferably a few years younger than Carp. Basically, I want Michael Choice or a slightly-younger equivalent, preferably who hits from the left side. He was just dealt straight up for Craig Gentry a few months ago, so I don't think he's out of the question, value-wise, for someone like Carp, even if he personally may not be available.
edit: After posting this, I thought to myself, isn't that basically Bryce Brentz? Sort of. I want a better, younger, left-handed Brentz back for Carp. So really, I want a healthy Ryan Kalish.
Please explain to me why a Sizemore who passes the spring training test will not be able to play every day. This isn't basketball. All he has to do is avoid injury (as does Victorino).
It's a leap to say he can't hack 6 games a week because he hasn't played for a couple of years. The military examples cited above are ample evidence that players who miss time can come back:
Berra
DiMaggio
Musial
Cobb
Mays
Williams
etc.
If Sizemore gets injured, he gets injured - and you call up Bradley from Pawtucket, where he should be playing every day to hone the skills that Sizemore already has.
I understand the alternative of trading Carp and keeping Sizemore as backup to Bradley (who, again, should be playing every day), but unless that trade is productive - a healthy Sizemore should be the starting CF with Bradley in the wings. What's the downside?
Rasputin said:
At first base? Both the numbers (admittedly SSS even over a career) and what we saw last year tell me that Carp is a reasonably competent first baseman--below average, but not by a ton; Paul Konerko or Chris Davis bad, not Adam Dunn bad.
Somehow this meme is emerging that not only is Nava a better outfielder than Carp (which is certainly true), but he's a better first baseman as well (which I think is almost certainly, and perhaps grossly, untrue). Nava played only a few games at 1B last year and looked iffy to me. He has played only a handful of innings there this spring, fewer than Carp, Lavarnway or Shaw. I think if we're going to say that Nava is an outfielder and Carp isn't, it would be about equally true to say that Carp is a first baseman and Nava isn't.
Don't you think he should play in consecutive games more than once before you act all douchebaggy?geoduck no quahog said:
Also, he hasn't been that excellent player since 2008. It's not a given that he's better than Bradley, so there's that.
Oh, and I don't know that the two plus weeks left are enough to pass the test.
If Bradley doesn't have more to learn at Pawtucket--and it sure as hell looks like the team thinks he doesn't--then why the bloody hell would you send him there?
Savin Hillbilly said:
Equally true? No, your vague impression that Nava "looks iffy" does not equal the mass of data and observation that says that Carp is an awkward poor OF with limited range.
And that Nava has shown himself to be an OK RF sets him far apart from Carp.
My optimism regarding his ability to be an offensive force is strong; my optimism regarding how much of that we will see is tempered by radsoxfan's thoughts in the "Sox Sign Sizemore" thread, where he wrote:
Of course I have no inside info, but just on the surface, multiple knee surgeries on both knees including bilateral micro fracture surgeries is serious stuff. There are no modern medicine miracles to regrow cartilage (yet). Not only does he have numerous potentially unhealable injuries, but they have kept him from playing baseball for 2 years.
For 750K, sure, it's not my money. Obviously it's a tiny risk, and the only reason you can get someone with his upside for that price is because of his injuries. But thinking he has a good chance to contribute strikes me as pretty damn optimistic given his history.
http://sonsofsamhorn.net/topic/81531-sox-sign-sizemore/
Of course I have no inside info, but just on the surface, multiple knee surgeries on both knees including bilateral micro fracture surgeries is serious stuff. There are no modern medicine miracles to regrow cartilage (yet). Not only does he have numerous potentially unhealable injuries, but they have kept him from playing baseball for 2 years.
For 750K, sure, it's not my money. Obviously it's a tiny risk, and the only reason you can get someone with his upside for that price is because of his injuries. But thinking he has a good chance to contribute strikes me as pretty damn optimistic given his history.
http://sonsofsamhorn.net/topic/81531-sox-sign-sizemore/
ji oh said:
There isn't anything that amounts to a "mass of data" on either of these guys playing any position. The largest sample we have is Nava in LF--1460 innings, which amounts to about one full season's worth of work. His numbers there are -9.6 UZR/150, +1 DRS. Next is Carp at first base, 858 innings (-3.3 UZR/150, +1 DRS). Those are the only two player/positions for which we have even as much as a half-season's worth of innings to look at.
Therefore we're really all trading "vague impressions" here. At least, those of us who aren't professional scouts. My vague impression of Nava is that he's a fringey but adequate LF and pretty poor everywhere else. Your vague impression may differ. But if the Sox really see Nava as a viable 1B option, why are they giving him so little game time there this spring--with fewer 1B innings than even Brandon Snyder, for pete's sake? Is it because they think he's so awesome there they don't need to see any more?
geoduck no quahog said:
I'm very optimistic on him at this point, but the health reality is that he had some major injuries and major surgeries, and you don't always come back from that all Cal Ripken-y like you might from your war years. His need for days off has nothing to do with his time away, but instead to deal with getting the most out of an aging body that has battled through some serious injuries to make it back on the diamond.
I don't doubt his skills and energy would hold up as an every day player, but his surgically repaired parts are another story, and playing 80 to 120 games is much less stressful than playing 162. I think they can ramp him up and see how his body reacts, but like a closer pitching a third day in a row, I think it will likely increase his value if he takes more time off than would be normal even if all the way healthy.
Our roster construction allows him to rest against tough lefties given his sizeable career splits (and RHB Nava/Gomes/Victorino available along with JBJ), so for starters I wouldn't have him start against a lefty both to increase his production over replacement teammate, and to let his body recover. Last season that means fewer than 500 PAs out of 700. So even on the upside of total health and great performance, I think he can and should end up with a roughly 120 game ceiling to maximize his effectiveness and health, and also to maximize our run production against LHP.
So I think we have enough ABs to go around to not stunt JBJ's development even if he isn't a full time player, and I think we are a better team (albeit with slightly less depth if there is a major long term injury) with JBJ on the roster and Carp traded. Not by a wide enough margin that I wouldn't understand the other direction if chosen, but selling high on Carp after buying low on Sizemore, and playing three home grown cost controlled young players sure seems like wise long term development that could happen without sacrificing any wins in the current season in the most probable scenarios.
Check for flying pigs, geoduck and I are in complete agreement. Sizemore wins the starting cf job and Bradley goes down, or Bradley wins the CF job and Sizemore gets DFA. Unless trading Carp brings 100 cents or more on the dollar at a similar position but with a minor league option, then the team is weaker overall. TsiEmore has two huge risks. First, he might get hurt our of the box, in that case the team is immediately worse off having traded Carp. Second, his skills might have eroded and so the team is also worse off for having traded Carp.geoduck no quahog said:
Trading Carp to accommodate Sizemore makes no sense, especially when you have a player with options to give you the option of retaining all the depth.
I'd note that the statement above about Carp being unable to hit lefties is not factual, and the statement that he can't play defense, at least in terms of 1B, is premature.
Kaufax37 makes a strong post and the conclusion I draw from his analysis is that Sizemore is in completion with Nava, and thus, given his injury issues with availability and performance, is a poor fit for the 2014 Red Sox.
How's this for a comp: Bill Walton in 85-86! Absolute superstar, then terrible terrible injuries, stat out three of four years entirely, played in half the games for the next three years, then found the perfect spot as a sixth man in Boston playing 17 minutes a game for 80 games.
I don' really see the argument for Bradley having no need for additional mL seasoning. He's had all of 550 ABs above A ball and was clearly way over his head at the ML level last season. Some additional seasoning in Pawtucket could definitely do him some good. Is it imperative? No, but it isn't a waste of time either.
If Sizemore displays the stamina to play full games on a daily basis and he's looking good with the bat I wouldn't see sending Bradley down for a month or two as a problem at all. He would get a chance to get his feet under him in AAA before being an ML starter and it would push arbitration a year further out for the club.
I'm dubious that Sizemore will be capable, which is unfortunate. If he'd consider an extended ST/DL to get him regular ABs in AAA for a few weeks I could see the team having the ability to work an 11 man rotation to carry an extra OF, since by then there will likely be pitching injuries and the shuttle running from AAA regularly anyhow.
As for Sizemore's projection, I think there is a good chance that his contact gets back to career norms and that his natural talents, nice pop with the bat and pretty good contact abilities, rebound pretty well. But a big part of his value when healthy was great OBP and I question just how well he'll be able to work counts and recognize pitches with all that time off. I wouldn't be at all surprised to see a line of .265/.325/.420 from him this year. That's not better than what Bradley could likely put up given a full season. Unless the club really feels like he's basically back to 85% or more of the old Sizemore by the end of ST (someone who can have a +80 BA/OBP delta and flirt with a .450-.460 SLG) it'll likely be up to Sizemore whether he wants to stick with the Sox or try finding someone else with more ABs out of the gate for him.
If Sizemore displays the stamina to play full games on a daily basis and he's looking good with the bat I wouldn't see sending Bradley down for a month or two as a problem at all. He would get a chance to get his feet under him in AAA before being an ML starter and it would push arbitration a year further out for the club.
I'm dubious that Sizemore will be capable, which is unfortunate. If he'd consider an extended ST/DL to get him regular ABs in AAA for a few weeks I could see the team having the ability to work an 11 man rotation to carry an extra OF, since by then there will likely be pitching injuries and the shuttle running from AAA regularly anyhow.
As for Sizemore's projection, I think there is a good chance that his contact gets back to career norms and that his natural talents, nice pop with the bat and pretty good contact abilities, rebound pretty well. But a big part of his value when healthy was great OBP and I question just how well he'll be able to work counts and recognize pitches with all that time off. I wouldn't be at all surprised to see a line of .265/.325/.420 from him this year. That's not better than what Bradley could likely put up given a full season. Unless the club really feels like he's basically back to 85% or more of the old Sizemore by the end of ST (someone who can have a +80 BA/OBP delta and flirt with a .450-.460 SLG) it'll likely be up to Sizemore whether he wants to stick with the Sox or try finding someone else with more ABs out of the gate for him.
Those that claim that Sizemore is a poor fit are simply overthinking and overanalyzing the situation.
Sizemore is either (a) released after an unsuccessful comeback attempt; (b) provides bench/injury depth; or (c) becomes an everyday player at 80% of his former self. None of these options hurt the Sox in any way, shape, or form. Meanwhile, the team has some options in case Victorino is slow to return from his injuries or JBJ turns out to be not ready to play. Again, Bradley tore up AAA after his initial demotion, but then cooled off substantially as the season went on; getting some additional AB's in Pawtucket will not hurt him. And that scenario assumes Sizemore is ready to be on the roster come April 1, a scenario which is likely no more than 50/50 right now.
Sizemore is either (a) released after an unsuccessful comeback attempt; (b) provides bench/injury depth; or (c) becomes an everyday player at 80% of his former self. None of these options hurt the Sox in any way, shape, or form. Meanwhile, the team has some options in case Victorino is slow to return from his injuries or JBJ turns out to be not ready to play. Again, Bradley tore up AAA after his initial demotion, but then cooled off substantially as the season went on; getting some additional AB's in Pawtucket will not hurt him. And that scenario assumes Sizemore is ready to be on the roster come April 1, a scenario which is likely no more than 50/50 right now.
I think that your b and c are entirely different options. In c, Sizemore is an 800 OPS guy that pushes Bradley to AAA. In b, Sizemore is a 750 or less OPS guy, and thus a worse option than Nava or Carp, who he'd have to replace.
It's start everyday in CF or bust, afaic.
It's start everyday in CF or bust, afaic.
Plympton91 said:
For scenario B, Sizemore's 750 OPS in RF is likely better than Nava's 820-850 OPS in RF to start the season due to defensive concerns. Bradley learning Fenway's CF while flanked by Gomes/Carp and Nava is basically telling the pitching staff "Fuck you, die." And I'm a huge fan of letting Bradley play 150+ games in CF this season.
All the doubters will feel vindicated when Grady makes a catch against the Cardinals bouncing off the CF wall and shatters into 50 pieces.
Sizemore now 2-3 today. Oddly, Ravech (at least I think it was Ravech) on ESPN suggested that JBJ would start with the big club, Sizemore would be sent to extended ST, and the team would watch how JBJ handles being in the majors before bringing up Sizemore. Has anyone else heard that this might be the plan? It seems like a bad idea, as it puts pressure on JBJ and doesn't maximize the value of Sizemore for the potentially limited time that he'll be healthy.
Not to side track the thread but what is wrong about putting some pressure on a player. I` m a restaurant owner and like to see what an employee can do under pressure right off. Wouldn`t seeing if the player can deal with pressure show what he could also do in the playoff stretch and playoffs?nattysez said:
Papi's fan said:
He just made a web gem, sprinting full-out and diving from his left to right with full extension to snare a low, sinking, tailing liner in front of the L-CF warning track. Not only is he fully intact, but successfully jogged back to the dugout while getting a standing ovation at inning's end.
Super small sample size ( :c070Papi's fan said:
, but he made a catch today against the Cardinals bouncing off the CF wall without shattering.
mabrowndog said:
And this after he slammed into the CF wall in the first inning (which I'm sure Papi fan was alluding to) and came away intact.
Someone can correct me if I'm wrong, but his injury issues weren't contact related for the most part. It wasn't like he was snake-bitten with fluky injuries like, say, Ellsbury in 2010 and 2012. His biggest health problems are wear-and-tear type things. The concern with Sizemore whether he can handle playing anything remotely close to a full time schedule (say 5 out of 6 games) without wearing down or breaking down. Those aren't questions that can really be answered fully in spring training, but so far, so good.
Gomes was interviewed by Kurkjian postgame, and the first question was about Sizemore.
"Well, it's St. Patrick's Day. If there's a pot o'gold, I think we found it in center field."
"Well, it's St. Patrick's Day. If there's a pot o'gold, I think we found it in center field."
Actually, this is the plan that many posters have been advocating. You don't want to be jettisoning a usefull player (Carp presumably) until you are fairly confident his health is going to stand up to the rigours of playing every day.nattysez said:
Due to the performance of Grady, etc. that was one of the most gratifying ST game I have ever watched.
Grady was always considered to be at risk for injury because he doesn't have a lower gear, he always played all out no holds barred. Watching those two highlights made me a little sad.
Kilted, take heart. Grady showed some restraint chasing a ball off the wall that Nava retrieved on the carom. I thought he would go crashing after that one too, but he used his head, stopped and looked back at the infield like, sorry, I guess I could have tried to run through the wall for that one. Grady showed today he is still a terrific talent.
keninten said:
Would you take that approach if your restaurant employees were special, non-fungible talents in whose long-term success you had already invested considerable resources?
Sizemore does not need extended spring time, and showed a little more today that he is our best center fielder. Assuming that, Nava and JBJ and Carp get to fight for sharing time in LF, backup CF (or RF if Victorino slides), 1B backup, defensive replacement, and pinch hitter/runner.
I think JBJ still has some real advantages defensively and on the bases, and with Sizemore and Victorino not 162 game guys, makes us easier to not miss a step, and I think there are enough ABs to go around even as a 5th outfielder to not stunt his development. I also continue to see Carp as the trade chip which has some perceived value ahead of Nava, but it still takes a lot to make it actually happen.
If a Carp trade doesn't happen or until it does, I think JBJ in Pawtucket temporarily will make more sense than DFAing someone, even if we might be a better team with JBJ in Boston.
I think JBJ still has some real advantages defensively and on the bases, and with Sizemore and Victorino not 162 game guys, makes us easier to not miss a step, and I think there are enough ABs to go around even as a 5th outfielder to not stunt his development. I also continue to see Carp as the trade chip which has some perceived value ahead of Nava, but it still takes a lot to make it actually happen.
If a Carp trade doesn't happen or until it does, I think JBJ in Pawtucket temporarily will make more sense than DFAing someone, even if we might be a better team with JBJ in Boston.
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