Projecting Sizemore
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Jungle Jim Rivera and Dale Long are decent (postive) comps for Nava too.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/longda02.shtml
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/riverji01.shtml
I would certainly bet on Nava's future production over Sizemore's.
Bradley is a strong favourite to be a better overall CFer than Sizemore this year and every year for the rest of his life.
Sizemore was just plain bad over his last 450 PAs, and then missed two full years due to chronic injury. Smacks of a "sexy" Lucchino signing, to divert attention from the loss of Ells and to spice up a drab off season, which Farrell bought into b/c of his past ties to Grady.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/longda02.shtml
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/riverji01.shtml
I would certainly bet on Nava's future production over Sizemore's.
Bradley is a strong favourite to be a better overall CFer than Sizemore this year and every year for the rest of his life.
Sizemore was just plain bad over his last 450 PAs, and then missed two full years due to chronic injury. Smacks of a "sexy" Lucchino signing, to divert attention from the loss of Ells and to spice up a drab off season, which Farrell bought into b/c of his past ties to Grady.
KillerBs said:
Actually, in his last 300 PA's he was pretty near league average (96 OPS+). But pretty shitty in the 150 PAs before that. But I do wonder if maybe, just maybe, the things that made him miss 2 full seasons had anything to do with his fall from OPS+ seasons of 123, 133, 123 and 133 (which Ellsbury has reached once is his MLB career) to missing two seasons. (my guess is "yes," the two are quite related.)
This would be the first "sexy" signing in the history of all mankind that involved a near-minimum deal and incentives.
Farrell's "past ties" included being a first-hand witness to a career that looked like it was headed to at least perennial all-star-dom.
Grady Sizemore has already had a career that Daniel Nava is unlikely to have.
All of that said, its a predicament for the Sox. Even if he paseses all the tests and has lost none of his skills, Sizemore is at most a 5 of 7 game player. So even if Sizemore is agin a 125OPS+ player, they will need another CF. Maybe it was injury, but last year, for as great as he looked in RF, Victorino looked like he had never played CF before when he was out there. And Nava in CF is emergency only territory.
KillerBs said:
Agreed. Nothing more ho-hum than going worst-to-first and winning a world championship in spectacular, cathartic, nail-biting fashion.
This reads like "guy in the car/long-time listener/love your show's" out-of-office message.
KillerBs said:
Sexy as in Sizemore is reputed to be easy on the eyes (like Dreamboat) or sexy as in will get the fans excited by his "superstar" name? If it's the former, cute joke. If it's the latter, what fan motivated by the "sexiness" of a player (i.e. casual fan that may or may not own a pink hat) is going to even recognize Grady Sizemore's name? This isn't like signing the biggest free agent on the market solely because he's the biggest name and most expensive player on the market. He is a scrap-heap flyer more comparable to Brad Penny and Aaron Cook than a "sexy" marquee player. Sizemore is not going to put the proverbial butts in the seats on reputation alone.
Good analogy, except I'd say it's more like the quality of John Smoltz but much younger. The difference is, nobody had to be traded for John Smoltz to get a roste spot. The solution peole are using to get Sizemore on the roster would be like people suggesting the Red Sox should have traded Clay Buchholz (who disappointed in 08 like Carp did in 2012) after Smoltz had a couple good rehab starts.Red(s)HawksFan said:
Trlicek's Whip said:
Dash cunning of them to win the world championship to distract people from how much the team sucked.
My own conspiracy theory is that they saw a low risk opportunity to replace some of the production they lost when Ellsbury left. In this vein, i.e. with respect to the risk, I have a question: did Sizemore have lots of nagging injuries that held him up or did he just blow up at times? I mean, I know he blew up at times, but what I mean is, if he blow up, he goes on the DL and doesn't cost a roster spot, whereas if he gets hamstrung by nagging injuries, that's more complicated.
Smoltz took a roster sport in the same way Sizemore should. When Smoltz was signed someone was sent to AAA. If Grady works out then Bradley should be sent to AAA. There is no difference.Plympton91 said:
Reverend said:
It's been a mix. In 2009 he was dealing with both a groin & elbow issue, tried to play through it & had a bad year while playing a lot of games. 2010 he blew up & was DL'd most the year. 2011 was a mix - I think he & the Indians tried to play through some injuries but IIRC he had at least 3 DL stints, maybe 4.
Of course 2012 & 2013 he was blown up so to speak.
Given his history I have to believe that this front office would be quick to pull the trigger to send him to the DL if physical problems show up. That's of course assuming he makes the 25 in the first place.
joe dokes said:
Sizemore's overall 2011 mediocrity was made up of a hot steak of 10 games to open the season followed by 60 games/246 PAs where he slashed 193/256/341. This is precisely the sort of eventuality I fear, that he shows just enough to keep himself around for 1/2 season or more essentailly sucking. Now if he is still a plus defensive CF/RFer then we can live with offensive medicority, but if has a lost a step or 3 in the field, you are looking at a replacement level playng over the young plus plus defender who projects to be his equal or better with the bat.
Obviously Sizemore's decline is directly related to injury; the question remains whether, after 4 years, a return to the sort of health required to be a FTish CF/RF at Fenway Park is a plausible expectation.
Trlicek's Whip said:
Fair enough, I grant my "sexy" comment was pulled outta me arse, and also grant the FO and Farrell deserve all sorts of leeway given the last year plus. Overall I have no real complaints with the more or less stand pat off-season other than the Sizemore signing, which I think was a mistake, in the guise of a risk free upside-only deal. I wanted to see the team pull the trigger on a Nava or Carp deal in exchange for a bona fide 4th OFer, preferably right handed, who could cover Cf/Rf. Instead they signed a LHB prayer, which they cannot easily walk away from, best-suited to LF, which was about the last thing they needed.
That said, when I think about what could have motivated this decision, I cant help but think of this illuminating passage from Tito's book:
"The document distributed at the meeting listed several factors in the public's falling interest in the team," the excerpt reads. "Chief among them was the 'no-name' lineup the team was forced to use in 2010 because of injuries and the lack of major trades or signings the winter before. In a section on male-female demographics, the report stated, '[W]omen are definitely more drawn to the "soap opera" and "reality-TV" aspects of the game. … They are interested in good-looking stars and sex symbols (Pedroia).'"
At first read, Epstein offers one of the most damning indictments of the owners' priorities in the excerpt, although the consultants -- and this meeting was a first, and last, of its kind for the GM in his tenure in Boston -- are clearly the target for much of his scorn
"They told us we didn't have any marketable players, that we needed some sizzle," he recalled. "We need some sexy guys. Talk about the tail wagging the dog. This is like an absurdist comedy. We'd become too big. It was the farthest thing removed from what we set out to be."
http://espn.go.com/boston/mlb/story/_/id/8848101/terry-francona-fires-back-boston-red-sox-owners
Certainly, the story line to start the season has shifted signficiantly from the more prosaic "Sox bank on youth up the middle for bid to repeat" to "GRADY!"
The first part of your post is pretty much where I come down. If the Red Sox needed a platoon left fielder to pair with Gomes, then taking a flyer on Sizemore would have been a great move. But, the Red Sox have two viable options to platoon with Gomes in LF, and both of them project to put up better numbers than a Sizemore who is 5 years removed from his last 800 OPS season and 2 years removed from playing in the major leagues. The "risk free" as you note, is only true to the extent that they pull the plug quickly in the event of underperformance, but this being baseball it is often very difficult to either judge based on small sample sizes or perform if you know that a small sample size may determine your fate. That said, I don't see why his "resurgence" this spring should be weighted any more heavily than JBJ's spring numbers last year, and I weighted them way too heavily in my preseason Bradley projection.
If they can get a couple of top 10 prospects from some other team for Carp or Nava in order to make room for Sizemore, then great. If they can't get 100 cents on the dollar, maybe 110 cents on the dollar given that Sizemore is much more likely to be injured or underperforming by Memorial Day than he is to be thriving, for one of those guys then Bradley goes to AAA or Sizemore gets DFAed.
If they can get a couple of top 10 prospects from some other team for Carp or Nava in order to make room for Sizemore, then great. If they can't get 100 cents on the dollar, maybe 110 cents on the dollar given that Sizemore is much more likely to be injured or underperforming by Memorial Day than he is to be thriving, for one of those guys then Bradley goes to AAA or Sizemore gets DFAed.
MalzoneExpress said:
Because sending Nava down is the way to take the best roster north while keeping the talent.
If you take Sizemore, Victorino, Gomes, Nava, and Bradley from most talented to least talented, Gomes is probably the worst considering his strong split is against the hand with which pitchers throw less frequently but he's being paid five million and can't be sent down. Next from the bottom is Daniel Nava. Good OBP against righties, not too much in the way of power, terrible against lefties, sub par defense. Victorino, Sizemore, and Bradley all have good to great defense. Sizemore has power. Bradley, from what I understand, doesn't have much of a platoon differential.
And did I mention all those rankings of Nava are based on a .352 BABIP.
They're also based on wild conjecture you pulled out of your ass.Rasputin said:
1. Last I checked Fenway still has the monster in LF, greatly diminishing the importance of defensive range there.
2. Nava hasn't played enough ML OF to have an accurate prediction of his defensive ability. UZR hates him, but DRS had him at +3 in the corners for 2012 and -2 in the corners in 2013 (with the same -1 for both RF and LF). From an observational standpoint I see nothing sub-par about his LF defense. His range and arm are both stretched to their limits in Fenway's RF, but in LF he does a pretty solid job.
3. His wRC+ of 128 was 4th best among regulars, 3rd if you exclude Mike Carp, and only one point shy of Mike Napoli. That's from both sides of the plate. Against righties only he had a wRC+ of 146. A line pretty comparable to Matt Holliday's 148 for last year, and David Ortiz only outpaced that by all of 6 points. His numbers against RHP alone would have made him the 14th best offensive player in all of baseball last year, so if the club can actually truly implement a platoon between he and Gomes (i.e. Victorino staying healthy) his productivity will only improve.
Meanwhile all the negatives you cite against Nava with the exception of power are equally true for Carp and Gomes. Victorino can't stay healthy for a whole season and up until a late season switch paired with absurd HBP luck his career trends suggest almost as serious a split favoring lefties as Nava's split favoring righties (the later of course being the side most pitchers throw from, which is kind of important to how those splits are valued).
And Bradley hasn't shown the ability to hit at the ML level. Hell, Bradley only has 550 ABs above A ball to his credit so far.
It's entirely possible that Daniel Nava's 2014 production will be closer to David Ortiz than Jackie Bradley's production will be to Daniel Nava's, and yet you want to send down the 31 year old who's proven he can out-hit every other OF against RHP over the LHB 23 year old who hasn't proven he can hit ML pitching at all.
I dont have too many absolutes when it comes to baseball, mostly because I have inferrior knowledge of the facts, and because even if I had the same knowledge, the people making the decisions are probably better at it than I am. BUT, I cannot conceive of how taking a flier on a guy whose upside is what Sizemore's is can EVER be a mistake in an of itself.
"We can't take a free gamble on a 31yr old who was a perennial all-star and MVP candidate because we have to solve our 5th outfielder conundrum" is the conversation being had in places where "winning the World Series" is further down on the agenda than "should we play Dexys Midnight Runners or The Thompson Twins on the stadium PA between the bottom of the 3rd and top of the 4th?"
Agree that the only sensible thing to do if they keep Sizemore is to send Bradley down. You just can't give up any depth for a guy who is probably less than 50/50 to be both healthy and productive.Rudy Pemberton said:
I think the fact that Sizemore was an all-star 5 years ago is about as relevant as the fact that Josh Beckett was an all star 5 years ago. Even if he can manage his legs to stay on the field, it's no guarantee that he hasn't lost 2 steps in the field and some bat speed.
I'm willing to keep watching and hoping, but banking on a return to form to the extent you'd trade away something (unless it's for at least 100 cents on the dollar) doesn't make any sense.
Well said.Drek717 said:
And the 352 BABip isn't that much of an outlier for a baseline 300 hitter. And it came with significant decline in K and increase in BB.
And another point to add is that , as at least 4 other people have pointed out now and Ras has ignored, Nava cannot actually be optioned without passing through optional assignment waivers, and that's not going to happen. So his whole crusade against the team's 3rd best hitter vs right handed pitching is entirely moot anyway.
Ditching Nava or Carp for the ghost of Grady Sizemore past is something bad organizations do. The Red Sox are not one of those.
Extending the roster by leveraging options is the go to move for the organization and a wise move for the long view.
Tough decisions have to be made at times and, while I would like to see JBJ get a full time shot out of the gate, it looks like that is going to be pushed.
The Sox can stash JBJ and use Sizemore. They can undo that move by dumping Sizemore if it doesn't work out. They cannot do the opposite or would have to lose another asset.
All this said, they will be ramping up Sizemore's workload to see how he responds. There are still critical data points to be collected and I imagine a widely accepted solution will bear itself out in time. Besides, JBJ could be making this one tougher by putting up stronger numbers. He's not. It's just spring training, so I don't believe it means he can't hack it, but he's certainly not pressing the issue at this time.
Tough decisions have to be made at times and, while I would like to see JBJ get a full time shot out of the gate, it looks like that is going to be pushed.
The Sox can stash JBJ and use Sizemore. They can undo that move by dumping Sizemore if it doesn't work out. They cannot do the opposite or would have to lose another asset.
All this said, they will be ramping up Sizemore's workload to see how he responds. There are still critical data points to be collected and I imagine a widely accepted solution will bear itself out in time. Besides, JBJ could be making this one tougher by putting up stronger numbers. He's not. It's just spring training, so I don't believe it means he can't hack it, but he's certainly not pressing the issue at this time.
Even if Sizemore passes every ST test -- plays 3 days in a row in CF, etc., etc. -- that still only gets him to the regular season and the additional strains of travel, fatigue and cold weather that *every* player has to deal with and which can't be replicated in ST. Good organizations can take a flier on a guy like this. But I also agree with those upthread who say that good organizations don't give up assets -- unless they get real assets in return -- to make room for a guy like this unless there's an absolute need to. And with JBJ's optionability, they dont need to. I still dont think playing Victorino in CF twice a week is optimal, but if that's what it takes to get more data on Sizemore, then its better than keeping JBJ up and moving Carp. (Gomes is not going to be traded, unless some other GM makes a drunk trade.)
The Nava/Gomes LF platoon was a match made in baseball heaven, especially one wherein half the games are played in Fenway with the small LF.Drek717 said:
In my mind, the issue is how do you back up CF/RF, as I don't really love seeing Nava, Gomes or Carp in RF (god forbid CF). In that magical place where no one is ever hurt, A trio of Sizemore/Victorino/JBJ would be the ideal RF/CF complement to Nava/Gomes in LF.
Saints Rest said:
I don't like seeing Nava in RF in Fenway, but he's an acceptable option to back up RF on the road, where most right fields aren't especially cavernous. His throwing arm is accurate, he doesn't miss the cutoff man, and his range (per DRS) is adequate. For a backup rightfielder, those are decent qualifications.
We have one too many guys right now.
The differences aren't significant enough right now to amount to real expected wins differences over a month or two, so we are talking about development and roster construction down the road, not our record on May 1st.
In terms of "earning it" and the negative impact of excluding from the opening day roster, JBJ is coming up short this year, just like he came up big last year. He is being outhit by Carp, Nava, and Sizemore, and while Spring Training stats are not very indicative, I don't think he is really showing signs that he ready to outperform those guys at the plate to start the season. Another struggle could hurt confidence, so I would like to see him earn his roster spot and be in a hot streak when he gets into the lineup.
JBJ also is the youngest, is the one who can benefit the most from triple-A ABs (although Sizemore is probably in that camp too if it were possible), is the one who has the most future cost controlling advantages to starting in the minors.
So if the options are DL/DFA of Sizemore, DFA/Send Down of Nava, and sending down JBJ, I think sending down JBJ is the obvious move to start the season, knowing that he will get an injury opportunity during the course of the season, and might also just take someone's roster spot if he performs and somebody struggles.
I still think option #4 is the best for our team, which is trading Carp for something of value, and I would pursue that aggressively in the meantime, both before we break camp and if JBJ is demoted continuing after. But that option isn't clearly available and takes a partner and a useful return.
So Jackie, we will keep an eye on the performance and health of Sizemore, we will make sure Nava keeps up his offensive value, we will wait for Victorino to run into something, and we will see if we can get someone to offer something good for Carp. But in the meantime please take your .623 spring training OPS to Pawtucket, get locked in, and tear things up for a while and force our hand. We look forward to having you in Boston, and maybe you can drive up for the ring ceremony, but you aren't quite a member of our opening day roster by either merit or strategy.
The differences aren't significant enough right now to amount to real expected wins differences over a month or two, so we are talking about development and roster construction down the road, not our record on May 1st.
In terms of "earning it" and the negative impact of excluding from the opening day roster, JBJ is coming up short this year, just like he came up big last year. He is being outhit by Carp, Nava, and Sizemore, and while Spring Training stats are not very indicative, I don't think he is really showing signs that he ready to outperform those guys at the plate to start the season. Another struggle could hurt confidence, so I would like to see him earn his roster spot and be in a hot streak when he gets into the lineup.
JBJ also is the youngest, is the one who can benefit the most from triple-A ABs (although Sizemore is probably in that camp too if it were possible), is the one who has the most future cost controlling advantages to starting in the minors.
So if the options are DL/DFA of Sizemore, DFA/Send Down of Nava, and sending down JBJ, I think sending down JBJ is the obvious move to start the season, knowing that he will get an injury opportunity during the course of the season, and might also just take someone's roster spot if he performs and somebody struggles.
I still think option #4 is the best for our team, which is trading Carp for something of value, and I would pursue that aggressively in the meantime, both before we break camp and if JBJ is demoted continuing after. But that option isn't clearly available and takes a partner and a useful return.
So Jackie, we will keep an eye on the performance and health of Sizemore, we will make sure Nava keeps up his offensive value, we will wait for Victorino to run into something, and we will see if we can get someone to offer something good for Carp. But in the meantime please take your .623 spring training OPS to Pawtucket, get locked in, and tear things up for a while and force our hand. We look forward to having you in Boston, and maybe you can drive up for the ring ceremony, but you aren't quite a member of our opening day roster by either merit or strategy.
For those who have watched the games, is JBJ hitting the ball well but just having bad luck? Or are his stats indicative of how's he truly hitting? With such a small sample size a couple of line drives right at someone or a couple of great plays on grounders by infielders could obviously skew the numbers.
glennhoffmania said:
Last season in MLB, LHP ate him alive. He's clearly been working on that, because this spring he's hitting lefties 5/15, with a walk and three doubles against six strikeouts. That's a .945 OPS. The competition has been at least somewhat stiff, as two of the doubles came off David Price and Wandy Rodriguez.
Of course, that also means that he's 3/25 off righties, good for a .425 OPS... I think this might be one to file under "working on something."
I agree with the bolded about trading Carp, but it seems to me that if they demote JBJ to start the season in Pawtucket, it will increase Ben's leverage in trying to parlay Carp into something better. I would almost be tempted to send JBJ down to minor-league camp now for that very reason.koufax37 said:
Saints Rest said:
I don't know enough about other team's interest, whether he is more valuable in the eyes of a team now to be part of opening day, or later when they have a week or two of losses with an inferior hitter getting ABs. I would not demote him for leverage, but I would demote him at the end of camp absent an injury because he is the odd man out until a trade or injury.
As I had mentioned before, I'm somewhat skeptical that Sizemore can handle the rigors of a full season as a full-time player. The team docs obviously know more about the specifics of his health status, and it seems the team thinks there is at least a chance he can make. Hopefully he does.
From the team's perspective, I completely understand they need to find out if Sizemore can play CF every day ASAP. It sounds like they will be playing him 5 games in 6 days coming up just to test him out. Given the roster construction of this Red Sox team, this makes sense. Grady doesn't really fit in as a part-time platoon guy, and he pretty much has to displace JBJ on the roster the way things shake out as of now.
I'm sure if Sizemore feels good, he wants to start and play CF 5 or 6 days a week if he can. Plus, he makes more money the more he plays. So I doubt he is really opposed to the plan that the Sox are laying out there (and I assume he knew this was the plan when he signed). I won't say the strategy is the wrong one, especially without knowing the details of his injuries, but it is interesting that Grady is basically being forced into being a full time CF right away by this roster. If I were him, I might prefer to ease into things, play a few times a week, and get more playing time as the season goes on.
In the end, it might not matter. If he is going to break down, he certainly could break down playing a couple times a week or playing 6 times a week. It's just an interesting (atypical?) way to go about salvaging your career after 2 years off due to injuries.
From the team's perspective, I completely understand they need to find out if Sizemore can play CF every day ASAP. It sounds like they will be playing him 5 games in 6 days coming up just to test him out. Given the roster construction of this Red Sox team, this makes sense. Grady doesn't really fit in as a part-time platoon guy, and he pretty much has to displace JBJ on the roster the way things shake out as of now.
I'm sure if Sizemore feels good, he wants to start and play CF 5 or 6 days a week if he can. Plus, he makes more money the more he plays. So I doubt he is really opposed to the plan that the Sox are laying out there (and I assume he knew this was the plan when he signed). I won't say the strategy is the wrong one, especially without knowing the details of his injuries, but it is interesting that Grady is basically being forced into being a full time CF right away by this roster. If I were him, I might prefer to ease into things, play a few times a week, and get more playing time as the season goes on.
In the end, it might not matter. If he is going to break down, he certainly could break down playing a couple times a week or playing 6 times a week. It's just an interesting (atypical?) way to go about salvaging your career after 2 years off due to injuries.
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