Predicting the Future: How Many SBs Does Mahomes Win?

[Kenny F'ing Powers]

You have a point, but on the other hand you could have replaced Mahomes with Rodgers in that paragraph and it would have been completely true a decade ago. And yet, just the one championship. Go back another decade further, and replace Mahomes with Manning and that was also true. And yet, just the one championship (that he had any responsibility for).

Well, not just Mahomes, but his weapons are going to take a hit. As T4W just said above, Kelce is 31 years old and plays a very demanding position. I'd be shocked if there WASNT a huge dropoff over the next 2-3 seasons.

The first thing to go is speed. Hill is 26. For every long career like DeSean Jacksons, theres a handful of Mike Wallaces or Dante Halls. Even without injuries, hes four years from 30. Hes not built like a Randy Moss gazelle. Hes small, compact, and doesnt have the natural gait to keep separation as he ages.

Mitchell Schwartz is probably their best lineman and is 31. Next season is his final on his contract, and hes going to want to cash in. Osemele's best seasons were with the raiders, and hes also 31. He signed a one year contract to rebuild valued, and hes going to be looking for one last cash in.

The future is bright for KC because of Mahomes, but we just saw Seattle wrestle with building around a QB after his cheap contract ends. And weve also made excuses for Patriots poor drafting as they continuously draft at the back of each round.

So, before we crown Mahomes with anymore titles, let's see how they do when it actually gets hard. The last few years will be the easiest they have for a while. And they "only" got 1 SB.

 

[Kliq]

Mahomes has all the talent in the world, and a great supporting cast. When KC had Alex Smith, they were the 6th best offense in the NFL and had won 11, 12 and 10 games over the previous three years. They were already a consistent playoff team, and Mahomes took them to the next level.

The big thing for Mahomes is that I do worry about his physical health; he has already taken some big hits and been banged up a few times in his career; if his mobility/arm strength decline to a significant degree, he will have to make a lot of adjustments. If you are KC, what you are banking on is that by the time Mahomes is in Year 8 or Year 12 or whatever, he will be so mentally advanced the way Brady (and to a slightly lesser extent, Manning and Brees) is that physical decline can be abated by a stronger understanding of opposing defenses.

A huge reason for Mahomes success is also because he is in probably the best QB system of the last 20 years, if not the entire history of the game. Make fun of Reid's shortcomings all you want, but the man knows how to design an offense and time-after-time, QB-after-QB, his offenses are near the top of the league. Reid is 62 and it's unlikely he will be around for Mahomes' entire career. How his career evolves post-Reid will be a critical aspect of his championship window.

 

[NJ_Sox_Fan]

I went with 2 total. Meaning he wins 1 more. I just think it is more likely that he will never win another one (which I do not think is very likely) than he will win multiple Super Bowls. It is incredibly hard to win multiple Super Bowls. Teams that are seemingly good to great every year over the past 10+ years (GB, NO) don't do it.

Romo and Nantz talking like it is a given that he will even have the chance to sniff Brady's record is absurd.

 

[rodderick]

I went with 2 total. Meaning he wins 1 more. I just think it is more likely that he will never win another one (which I do not think is very likely) than he will win multiple Super Bowls. It is incredibly hard to win multiple Super Bowls. Teams that are seemingly good to great every year over the past 10+ years (GB, NO) don't do it.

Romo and Nantz talking like it is a given that he will even have the chance to sniff Brady's record is absurd.

Not just that, but openly lamenting how losing this one would make it harder for him to catch Brady. They were pretty much giving him 6.

 

[Silverdude2167]

Romo and Nantz talking like it is a given that he will even have the chance to sniff Brady's record is absurd.

This is where BB is being undersold in all the hot takes about how he is now a loser in Brady wining without him.

You need a great QB to win multiple rings, but that is only like 25% of the recipe...the other 50% is a GOAT coach and 25% is a great GM.

Does Mahomes have that other 75% around him for sustained success? I am not sure he does, they seem to like giving out big contracts.

 

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

I am less impressed by Mahomes having 3 of those seasons because look at the offense he has around him. It compares to or is better than the peak teams for Manning and Brady. Let's see what he does when he isn't throwing to all pros, or his O-Line is not good. He is an other world talent but so far he has been playing the game set to easy difficulty. Of course, I should note that I tend to not love Mahomes as much as other people, so I will look closer for "flaws".

Ehh, most great QBs have had great surrounding talent for extended stretches in their careers. Mahomes might not enjoy that talent for much longer and that certainly is one reason to question how many Super Bowls he'll eventually win. But it is not a good reason for dismissing his numbers or his ridiculous accomplishments at this point in his career.

Purely from the standpoint of regular season statistics, he arguably just had the best three year stretch of any QB in NFL history and it was during his first three years as a starter in the league. It is what it is.

 

[Euclis20]

Not just that, but openly lamenting how losing this one would make it harder for him to catch Brady. They were pretty much giving him 6.

It's not just those two, commentators and analysts from all corners are very casual about the possibility. They are somewhat subdued at the moment, but they'll be back soon enough. It's impossible to appreciate what has transpired until they are gone, but Brady/Belichick made it look too easy.

Dan Marino won the MVP in his second season and made the super bowl with a HOF coach, then never got back. Russell Wilson won the super bowl in his second season and was a yard away from winning again the next year, but despite having an excellent coach and great players around him, is yet to get back to the NFC title game (6 years later). Rodgers won it in his 3rd year and won the MVP the next year, but never got back to the super bowl. Roethlisberger won 2 super bowls in his first 5 years and went back to the super bowl again 2 years after that, but hasn't been close in the last decade, despite a solid coach and great system. Manning made the pro bowl 14 times from 1999-2014 and won 5 MVPs, but won just one super bowl in that stretch.

Some people will argue (not without merit) that Mahomes has been better in his first 3 years as a starter than any of those guys, but at the end of the day he still has just 1 super bowl. He's playing with an A+ supporting cast and a HOF coaching staff, but his talent has yet to manifest itself into a level of success beyond what any of those guys above (other than Marino) achieved.

Beyond the NFL comparisons, the NBA is having its own GOAT debate and I feel like some are conflating Brady/Mahomes with Jordan/LeBron. Beyond the obvious (Mahomes isn't in the same zip code as LeBron in any way), people need to remember that being the best player in the NFL isn't the same as being the best player in the NBA. The best players in the NBA can win a LOT of titles in the right situation. Everyone remembers Jordan has 6, but just in the last 40 years, Magic has 5, Duncan has 5, Kobe has 5, Shaq has 4, Lebron has 4, Curry has 3, Bird has 3...this just doesn't happen in the NFL and I don't think the the sports media is viewing Brady/Mahomes in the proper light, at all.

 

[j-man]

1 or none look the AFC west is very tough LAC has a star qb as good as mahomes vegas has a top 5 off if they get any defense they should win 9 10 games a year denver will not suck forever once they fix their ownship issues and qb issues they shouild also win 9-10 games a year i see KC turning into the 2011-20 packers and when reid and kecle go kc will turn into just atother team

 

[BaseballJones]

It's not just those two, commentators and analysts from all corners are very casual about the possibility. They are somewhat subdued at the moment, but they'll be back soon enough. It's impossible to appreciate what has transpired until they are gone, but Brady/Belichick made it look too easy.

Dan Marino won the MVP in his second season and made the super bowl with a HOF coach, then never got back. Russell Wilson won the super bowl in his second season and was a yard away from winning again the next year, but despite having an excellent coach and great players around him, is yet to get back to the NFC title game (6 years later). Rodgers won it in his 3rd year and won the MVP the next year, but never got back to the super bowl. Roethlisberger won 2 super bowls in his first 5 years and went back to the super bowl again 2 years after that, but hasn't been close in the last decade, despite a solid coach and great system. Manning made the pro bowl 14 times from 1999-2014 and won 5 MVPs, but won just one super bowl in that stretch.

Some people will argue (not without merit) that Mahomes has been better in his first 3 years as a starter than any of those guys, but at the end of the day he still has just 1 super bowl. He's playing with an A+ supporting cast and a HOF coaching staff, but his talent has yet to manifest itself into a level of success beyond what any of those guys above (other than Marino) achieved.

Beyond the NFL comparisons, the NBA is having its own GOAT debate and I feel like some are conflating Brady/Mahomes with Jordan/LeBron. Beyond the obvious (Mahomes isn't in the same zip code as LeBron in any way), people need to remember that being the best player in the NFL isn't the same as being the best player in the NBA. The best players in the NBA can win a LOT of titles in the right situation. Everyone remembers Jordan has 6, but just in the last 40 years, Magic has 5, Duncan has 5, Kobe has 5, Shaq has 4, Lebron has 4, Curry has 3, Bird has 3...this just doesn't happen in the NFL and I don't think the the sports media is viewing Brady/Mahomes in the proper light, at all.

Man....everyone always forgets Kareem. Six titles (1971 with Mil, 1980, 1982, 1985, 1987, 1988 with LA). Always gets lost in the shuffle in this discussion, even though he has six championships, 6 MVPs, and more other accolades than you can shake a stick at.

 

[CouchsideSteve]

I think he gets two more. He’s a transcendent talent and has one in the bank at such a young age. He probably will win 3-4 more MVPs and if he does that plus wins 3 SBs, he will go down as one of the all-time greats.

But no way does he get to where Brady is at.

^This is where I’m at, too.

Though I’ll add, I’m more optimistic about his potential for longevity than previous posters seem to be. From Brady to LeBron to Federer, we’re seeing elite athletic primes extended due to superior training, nutrition and sports science. Mahommes could benefit from another 15 years of innovation on that front, along with the fact that he will play in an era where the game is progressively kinder to QBs — both by scheme and penalizing hits. Not hard for me to imagine a 40 year old version of Mahommes having comparable mobility and arm strength to the 37 year old version of Rogers who we just saw win MVP.

Still, sticking with three.

 

[jablo1312]

If you were someone whos rooting for mahomes to be the bes qb of all time, beyond just rooting for the chiefs, sunday night stings not just b/c it was a loss but b/c it creates such an insane standard to live up to in order to get into the goat convo. 6-2 w/ a win H2H in the SB over Brady and you could see him only needing like 2-3 more + some MVPs and a decade as the face of the league, which is obviously obscenely difficult...but its way better then being down 7-1 w/ a H2H loss. To breach the convo he'll probably need what 4 titles + 3 more MVPs at the absolute minimum? Crazy the gap that this + the 18-19 AFCCG put between them from a postseason counting resume. You can play the what-if game all dayb...ut if the Pats lose that year to KC (who go on to beat the Rams in SB LIII instead) and the Chiefs won yesterday (a much bigger stretch obv. based on how it played out) the narrative would be that Mahomes will inevitably become the best QB in league history after 3-peating and beating Brady H2H. But instead, a 6 title gap. Thats why they play the games!

 

[Bowhemian]

He's not a traditional running QB, along the lines of Vick, Newton, Watson, etc. Those QBs tend to have a shorter shelf-life, as they just take too many hits.
But he does run a lot, and he is usually pretty good at it. He typically knows when to step out of bounds to avoid the big hits. However, he has come perilously close to getting smoked on some of those. If he isn't careful, one of those could be career-altering.

I don't know, I just don't see him having a 15+ year career.

 

[MuppetAsteriskTalk]

He's not a traditional running QB, along the lines of Vick, Newton, Watson, etc. Those QBs tend to have a shorter shelf-life, as they just take too many hits.
But he does run a lot, and he is usually pretty good at it. He typically knows when to step out of bounds to avoid the big hits. However, he has come perilously close to getting smoked on some of those. If he isn't careful, one of those could be career-altering.

I don't know, I just don't see him having a 15+ year career.

I think a lot of his magic goes away as soon as he loses a step, which as you mention can come from one big pop. He could still be a good QB, but not otherworldly like he is now.

 

[Ralphwiggum]

The thing he does where he sort of makes like he's going out of bounds but then tiptoes up the sideline and extends the ball is going to get him smoked sooner or later. He's basically taking advantage of the fact that the defense is afraid to hit him near the sideline because of a penalty. At some point some 250 pound linebacker is going to have enough of that and will take the 15 yarder and lay him out. I like Mahomes but I find that particular part of his game to be annoying. I do think durability and longevity are fair questions to be asking at this point in his career.

In terms of the question, I voted 2. All the reasons have already been mentioned, it's hard to win Super Bowls and it'll start getting harder for the Chiefs over the next few years. If you look at the Patriots "drought" from 2005 through 2013, so many years they had rosters that were in theory good enough to win and were derailed by injuries, either little by little over the course of the season, or catastrophically in a single playoff game. The NFL is a war of attrition and having both good luck with injuries and the depth to be able to withstand a bunch over the course of a season is huge. To me that's the biggest factor for why he'll probably only win one or maybe two more.

 

[Bowhemian]

I think a lot of his magic goes away as soon as he loses a step, which as you mention can come from one big pop. He could still be a good QB, but not otherworldly like he is now.

I think we saw what that looks like this post-season. The turf toe injury definitely impacted his game.

The thing he does where he sort of makes like he's going out of bounds but then tiptoes up the sideline and extends the ball is going to get him smoked sooner or later. He's basically taking advantage of the fact that the defense is afraid to hit him near the sideline because of a penalty. At some point some 250 pound linebacker is going to have enough of that and will take the 15 yarder and lay him out. I like Mahomes but I find that particular part of his game to be annoying. I do think durability and longevity are fair questions to be asking at this point in his career.

It's really annoying, and I think you are right in that it's only a matter of time.

 

[tims4wins]

Russell Wilson does something similar, but he hasn't seemed to have gotten burned by it yet

 

[rodderick]

Russell Wilson does something similar, but he hasn't seemed to have gotten burned by it yet

Wilson just seems to me to have a more solid build than Mahomes, dude is basically shaped like a square.

 

[tims4wins]

Wilson just seems to me to have a more solid build than Mahomes, dude is basically shaped like a square.

This is true

 

[reggiecleveland]

The thing he does where he sort of makes like he's going out of bounds but then tiptoes up the sideline and extends the ball is going to get him smoked sooner or later. He's basically taking advantage of the fact that the defense is afraid to hit him near the sideline because of a penalty. At some point some 250 pound linebacker is going to have enough of that and will take the 15 yarder and lay him out. I like Mahomes but I find that particular part of his game to be annoying. I do think durability and longevity are fair questions to be asking at this point in his career.

I am not sure about this. One reason Brady got to where he is the rule protect QBs much more than in the past. A guy hitting the face of the league late will get suspended, lose a lot of money. At one time Jack Lambert was praised for drilling Brian Sipe. That isn't the case anymore.

I see those plays as a display of his athleticism. The defender has made him sprint for the side line, but he has the agility, to delay goinf out of bounds and cut back for a yard or two.

 

[Hendu for Kutch]

I am not sure about this. One reason Brady got to where he is the rule protect QBs much more than in the past. A guy hitting the face of the league late will get suspended, lose a lot of money. At one time Jack Lambert was praised for drilling Brian Sipe. That isn't the case anymore.

I see those plays as a display of his athleticism. The defender has made him sprint for the side line, but he has the agility, to delay goinf out of bounds and cut back for a yard or two.

There's an element beyond that though, he's pulled shenanigans along the sidelines specifically to draw penalties a bunch of times now in games that I've watched him. Either flopping after going out of bounds or trying to get somone to hit him and then quickly dart out. If he goes to that well too often, someone is going to light him up. See this example where McCourty doesn't bite, but could have absolutely trucked him.

View: https://twitter.com/i/status/1313262178661814275

 

[reggiecleveland]

There's an element beyond that though, he's pulled shenanigans along the sidelines specifically to draw penalties a bunch of times now in games that I've watched him. Either flopping after going out of bounds or trying to get somone to hit him and then quickly dart out. If he goes to that well too often, someone is going to light him up. See this example where McCourty doesn't bite, but could have absolutely trucked him.

View: https://twitter.com/i/status/1313262178661814275

That video makes my point though. McCourty did not want the flag, suspension, etc. If he drills Mahomes there he is probably suspended, and this video could be used as evidence to damn the guy that does drill him. I understand Pats fans may want to see some rough justice, but it is more likley one of his pocket escapes ends badly than the sideline stuff. He got folded like a lawn chair in the SB when the BUC kept contain and he spun back into trouble.

 

[Fishercat]

That video makes my point though. McCourty did not want the flag, suspension, etc. If he drills Mahomes there he is probably suspended, and this video could be used as evidence to damn the guy that does drill him. I understand Pats fans may want to see some rough justice, but it is more likley one of his pocket escapes ends badly than the sideline stuff. He got folded like a lawn chair in the SB when the BUC kept contain and he spun back into trouble.

I'm not sure anyone wants to see rough justice but I think Hendu may be right. There will be defenders who will take the shot at him in that spot. McCourty is a very intelligent, present player: he has been penalized 3 times since 2016 - one helmet to helmet hit and two oddballs (a neutral zone infraction and offensive (?!) holding). He's been fined once in his career for a questionable hit in 2010. He's not a dirty player and is exceptional in not being penalized. I don't think it's unrealistic to think that a safety or LB is going to see Mahomes near the 1st down marker, remember this kind of play, and make the play as if he's staying in bounds. It's a dangerous kind of play to have as part of your arsenal - I think back to RGIII's concussion when he tried to turn upfield near the sideline and got walloped

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_TdWVS-ZxQc


Or that defenders are a lot more likely to use a hard shove/push near a sideline than a full on tackle and the things that can be run into due to it. It just seems like it adds an element of risk that you almost never see from a pocket QB. You add in the stationary/slow moving target element, the fact that he is one of the handful who is capable of making ridiculous throws when running at a sideline (like that absolutely absurd mid air fling near the end of the SB), and I think some defenders are more likely to make a wrong guess if he was going out of bounds than they would for other QBs who often take the loss, if you will.

Like you say, Brady has lasted forever in part because of the softer (good thing IMO) rules, but also because he frequently gave himself up: folding to a pass rush, not forcing sideline/rushing confrontations (given his speed), really only risking his body on essential plays. At some point I'd think Mahomes or his team is going to make the calculation that these in pocket or sideline plays aren't worth it in the long term. We'll see.