Predicting the Future: How Many SBs Does Mahomes Win?

How many Super Bowls will Mahomes win before retirement?

  • 1

    Votes: 21 7.7%
  • 2

    Votes: 123 45.1%
  • 3

    Votes: 112 41.0%
  • 4

    Votes: 14 5.1%
  • 5

    Votes: 1 0.4%
  • 6+

    Votes: 2 0.7%

  • Total voters
    273

BigSoxFan

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Patrick Mahomes is just 25 and has lost in AFCCG, won a SB, and lost in SB in his first 3 years as a starter along with other other-worldly regular season stats. His monster contract begins next year, which impacts the ability of the Chiefs to surround him with the same talent he enjoyed from 2018-2020. Tyreek Hill is about to turn 27. Travis Kelce turns 32 this fall.

As others have noted, he is basically where Russell Wilson was after SB49 from a playoff success standpoint.

So, how does Mahomes' story end? Is he done like Favre, Brees, and maybe Rodgers? Does he win another one and add a few more regular season MVPs like Peyton? Add a couple more SBs like Troy Aikman. Does he reach the Montana/Brady/Bradshaw stratosphere with 4+? We all assume that Mahomes with 10+ years remaining is a near lock to win another but we all know how tough it is to win in the NFL, especially now that the huge advantage of Mahomes on a rookie deal has expired.

I personally think he probably wins 1 or 2 more but I'm not expecting 4+ because it's just so hard to do no matter how talented you are.
 

mwonow

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I voted 1, but it's essentially unknowable. The key is, who comes after Reid? Mahomes will outlast the coach, and the ability of the next coach/GM to build a team that can defend without PI and protect/run while paying a quarter of the salary cap to a QB is a seriously open question.

What would you have predicted for Rodgers ten years ago? He was cheap for one more year at that point.
 

Leather

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Given how the power in the NFL ebbs and flows, and that teams' time on top of the heap tends to be 2-3 years, I think it's a safe bet that the Chiefs will begin their downswing either next season or certainly in 2022. Even during the Patriots run(s), there was a revolving door of rivals (Colts, Steelers, Ravens, Broncos, Chiefs) that were nearly as good, and sometimes a bit better, than the Patriots. History dictates that some other team will rise up to challenge and probably overtake the Chiefs. The Bills? The Dolphins (if they can trade for Watson)? The Titans?

So I say he wins one more. Maybe next year, maybe with a completely different supporting cast. But his time to rattle off 2+ wins in a short period was probably 2018-2020. That's not going to happen again.
 

moondog80

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Shouldn't zero be an option? Marino, Rodgers, and Wilson all seemed to have rosy futures after losing one but never got another one (yet).
 

djbayko

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Something which doesn't get discussed much is his style of play and it's susceptibility to age and/or injury. He's not Lamar Jackson, but part of what makes him great is his ability to scramble and make time for plays to happen with his feet.

I chose 1 just because shit happens. Besides what I said above, there are other teams on the rise - even ones we won't expect. How long will they be able to keep this roster stacked at skill positions together? And he still has to contend with Brady for another 5-6 years :cool:
 

E5 Yaz

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I went with 3 total, although I'm leery of the 1 and done option.

The windows are smaller than usual in the NFL, true, but I wouldn't be surprised if the Chiefs pull a Patriots run and go W-L-W ... which would give him 2. Then it's just one more over his career.
 

Bowhemian

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I picked 2 total, but could see 3.
The trouble is that it is really hard to win it all multiple times in the NFL. Look at Peyton Manning. He played on some pretty stacked teams, and still only one twice. As someone mentioned upthread, Mahomes giant contract could really hamper the team. All I know is, KC is going to be in salary cap hell for a long time.
 

BaseballJones

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I think he gets two more. He’s a transcendent talent and has one in the bank at such a young age. He probably will win 3-4 more MVPs and if he does that plus wins 3 SBs, he will go down as one of the all-time greats.

But no way does he get to where Brady is at.
 

BigSoxFan

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I went with 3 total, although I'm leery of the 1 and done option.

The windows are smaller than usual in the NFL, true, but I wouldn't be surprised if the Chiefs pull a Patriots run and go W-L-W ... which would give him 2. Then it's just one more over his career.
To that end, they’re the Vegas favorites for next year. Doesn’t take much to see them back in this game next year. Nobody in the AFC is ready to take them on right now. Bills are the best of the bunch and got destroyed. Pats are done for a while. Steelers are fading due to Ben. Colts need a QB. Ravens are possibility but haven’t been good at all in playoffs with Lamar. Browns might have shot if Baker continues to grow. Tennessee feels like a step below. Miami needs significant Tua growth to be a competitor to KC.
 

mwonow

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I didn't realize that the number was total, not in the future, so I switched to 2. Mahomes is really good, and a team with a really good quarterback always has a punchers chance in the NFL. But forced to pick between two more and he's won what he's going to, I would take the under.
 

PC Drunken Friar

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I think he gets two more. He’s a transcendent talent and has one in the bank at such a young age. He probably will win 3-4 more MVPs and if he does that plus wins 3 SBs, he will go down as one of the all-time greats.

But no way does he get to where Brady is at.
Jim Nantz tried to make the argument last night that if Mahomes had won, he would have "closed" the gap to Brady 6-2 and that 4 more SB victories is well within reach for Mahomes. That is an idiotic statement, when only 2 QBs in history (other than Brady) have 4 SB titles.
 

E5 Yaz

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To that end, they’re the Vegas favorites for next year. Doesn’t take much to see them back in this game next year. Nobody in the AFC is ready to take them on right now. Bills are the best of the bunch and got destroyed. Pats are done for a while. Steelers are fading due to Ben. Colts need a QB. Ravens are possibility but haven’t been good at all in playoffs with Lamar. Browns might have shot if Baker continues to grow. Tennessee feels like a step below. Miami needs significant Tua growth to be a competitor to KC.
The talking point this morning is that Bowles devised a game plan that can stop KC, and now every team will use it.

Yeah, right.

We've seen this before ... when the Giants beat the Patriots in 07. If it was that easy, the Patriots should've become easier to beat over the next 10 seasons. Didn't happen.

It's scheme ... and personnel. Maybe the Ratbirds, maybe (with a few more pieces) the Bills. But who has the front seven that the Bucs put on display last night?

Getting past the Chiefs isn't going to be easy for the next 3-5 years, which gives Mahomes a fighting chance
 

nattysez

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To that end, they’re the Vegas favorites for next year. Doesn’t take much to see them back in this game next year. Nobody in the AFC is ready to take them on right now. Bills are the best of the bunch and got destroyed. Pats are done for a while. Steelers are fading due to Ben. Colts need a QB. Ravens are possibility but haven’t been good at all in playoffs with Lamar. Browns might have shot if Baker continues to grow. Tennessee feels like a step below. Miami needs significant Tua growth to be a competitor to KC.
I think the Chargers with better coaching and the Bills with another year of experience could both give KC a run next year. The Chargers in particular may have the DLine needed to give KC trouble.
 

BaseballJones

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The talking point this morning is that Bowles devised a game plan that can stop KC, and now every team will use it.

Yeah, right.

We've seen this before ... when the Giants beat the Patriots in 07. If it was that easy, the Patriots should've become easier to beat over the next 10 seasons. Didn't happen.

It's scheme ... and personnel. Maybe the Ratbirds, maybe (with a few more pieces) the Bills. But who has the front seven that the Bucs put on display last night?

Getting past the Chiefs isn't going to be easy for the next 3-5 years, which gives Mahomes a fighting chance
Agreed. I mean TB played great and maybe was indeed the best team in the league by the end. But KC...

- Had a hobbling Mahomes
- Had a decimated offensive line
- Didn't get good ref luck (let's be honest...I mean they did commit penalties but I can see why KC fans are salty about it)
- Had a team dealing with a terrible personal situation with the head coach
- Faced a ferocious defensive line

It's not too often that all that stuff is going to come together in a game. Not saying TB didn't deserve to win - obviously they did - but there were quite a few things going against KC last night.
 

Pandemonium67

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Somebody's got to win the SB every year and with the Pats in decline and Brady done in a couple more years, the door will be open.

Mahomes is a great talent and it's a QB league. I think he'll win several more, but last night means he'll never catch TB.
 

Morgan's Magic Snowplow

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Voted for one more, but wouldn't be surprised at all by two or even three.

I think the biggest X factor is that he's going to play most of his career under a coach other than Andy Reid, on teams with different weapons than Hill or Kelce. So much depends on whether they can find another high quality coach and the front office can keep surrounding him with talent. Its really hard to win the Super Bowl. Even when your team is extremely good, any season can be derailed by injuries and then in the postseason you usually have to beat at least two other excellent teams against which you're more or less a coin toss, with a lot of in-game luck that can be decisive. The only way to bank on winning a lot of Super Bowls, especially in the salary cap era, is to play on an excellent team for a long time, so that you have a lot of chances for things to go your way. Most of that is out of Mahomes' hands.
 

Caspir

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Jim Nantz tried to make the argument last night that if Mahomes had won, he would have "closed" the gap to Brady 6-2 and that 4 more SB victories is well within reach for Mahomes. That is an idiotic statement, when only 2 QBs in history (other than Brady) have 4 SB titles.
Hearing him and Romo last night was insane. Casually yucking it up about the next half dozen Super Bowls he will undoubtedly play in.

We know that at one point (or five or six points if you're Brady) a new "best QB" will enter the league. Maybe that's Lawrence next year, and it becomes such a dogfight in the AFC with the Jags, KC, Baltimore, Buffalo, LA, etc., that Mahomes remains elite but falls just short repeatedly. Or, maybe he gets injured and loses some of that mobility. Too many unknowns, but I do think a Roethlisberger arc of winning young, falling short a few couple times, then grabbing another one a few years later is a decent bet. It would mean one title in the next two years to match that Steelers group that won XL and XLIII.
 

DourDoerr

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I went with 3 because I have such respect for Mahomes' gifts and his extreme youth. Those throws under duress are otherworldly.

One of the things that might cap his career by, say, the late thirties is injuries. A big part of his game is the ability to run and get the first down when necessary. If that gets neutralized, then he's more limited and will drop closer to the pack. IANAD but when I watch Mahomes walk, he seems oddly put together. His posture seems off and his knees go together. Given that, once his ligaments lose their flexibility, hits may have bigger consequences than usual. Just an observation that I admittedly can't back up.
 

pvg44

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I'm a homer so I said 3 more (heart says that, head thinks 2). I was aware of it last night but thought -- come to expect, I guess -- that Mahomes could overcome a subpar o-line. Definitely not the case, and I think what must happen for KC even to get to one more SB is depth and physicality on the offensive front. He can strain an OL when he either bails too soon or drifts too far back in the pocket; I think some of that became a habit this year because of his mistrust of the line. Chiefs also need to develop other receivers and TE options. Hardman was a waste of a pick; he is not even close to a #2 WR (if they could trade him for a 5th round pick this offseason I'd be good with that). So yes, salary cap management is big in the future but I think they still have a window win the next 2-3 years to get back to the SB.
 

DourDoerr

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Hearing him and Romo last night was insane. Casually yucking it up about the next half dozen Super Bowls he will undoubtedly play in.
It was somewhat cavalier, but I took Nantz' point to be that Mahomes' loss was a 2 game swing. Mahomes went from being down 6-2 in SB wins to 7-1, so 4 wins down to 6 wins down. IF Mahomes had had a chance to catch Brady, the odds had taken a significant hit.
 
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Working slightly in his favor is that the draft class is VERY DEEP in OL. I'd be surprised if a really good one doesn't fall all the way to #31 (#31 - insert own Nelson Muntz HA-ha gif here), and even more surprised if KC doesn't take one. Mahomes is just too valuable.
 

Euclis20

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It was somewhat cavalier, but I took Nantz' point to be that Mahomes' loss was a 2 game swing. Mahomes went from being down 6-2 in SB wins to 7-1, so 4 wins down to 6 wins down. IF Mahomes had had a chance to catch Brady, the odds had taken a significant hit.
Just as important as the deficit going from 4 to 6, Brady has the H2H wins in both the AFC title game and the Super Bowl, essentially giving him the tiebreaker (assuming they don't meet at the end again). Mahomes couldn't beat Brady when it counted, and if he does get to 7, he only got there because Brady presumably retired at some point. He doesn't need to win 8 titles to be considered the GOAT, but 7 titles for Mahomes won't be as impressive as 7 for Brady.

I don't think you necessarily have to beat the greatest to become the greatest (after all, Lebron may get there someday and he never had the chance to play Jordan), but when you get the opportunity and fail (twice), it definitely matters.
 

OurF'ingCity

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I don't think you necessarily have to beat the greatest to become the greatest (after all, Lebron may get there someday and he never had the chance to play Jordan), but when you get the opportunity and fail (twice), it definitely matters.
Does it? It’s not like Brady was blitzing Mahomes or batting down his passes. Mahomes’ struggles last night don’t have much to do with Brady, and Brady’s success last night doesn’t have much to do with Mahomes.

The head-to-head stuff with QBs never made much sense to me for this reason.
 

bankshot1

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I gave him 3-mostly reflecting his age and how freaking good he is, but with an influx of good QBs coming into the league, and his contract hitting the books soon, and reflecting on all the really good recent QBs who only won 1 or 2, (Peyton, Wilson, Rodgers, Brees, Benny), 3 rings seems a lot.

Brady won 7 and could have won 10, that's fucking insane.
 

lexrageorge

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I said 3. Mahomes certainly has the talent to win more. But winning a Super Bowl is still a team effort, and the degree of difficulty in keeping a franchise in championship contention cannot be overstated. Tampa was able to attack the Chiefs' Achilles heel last night. Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees never made it back to the big game after they won it, and Russell Wilson's last snap in the Super Bowl was intercepted.
 

Leather

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It was somewhat cavalier, but I took Nantz' point to be that Mahomes' loss was a 2 game swing. Mahomes went from being down 6-2 in SB wins to 7-1, so 4 wins down to 6 wins down. IF Mahomes had had a chance to catch Brady, the odds had taken a significant hit.
Right, but even with that caveat, the likelihood of Mahomes getting 6 championships is so small that to mention it at all as a plausible scenario is to overstate it.

Possibility of injury, supporting cast, other teams' relative talent, etc... all of these things are working against Mahomes. Also, he's really good, and will likely be a top-3 QB in the league for another 5 years before age starts to wear him down a bit, but there are other really good QBs out there, too. Allen and Watson, not to mention Rodgers, are in the conversation for best QB, with Jackson not far behind. Someone else mentioned it, but the 2014-2016 Seahawks are a pretty good cautionary tale about extrapolating the successes in a great short run over an entire career, but so are the 1998-2001 Rams. Shit seems like it will go on forever until it doesn't. Until Mahomes has 4 SB wins, it's not really worth discussing.
 

Euclis20

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Does it? It’s not like Brady was blitzing Mahomes or batting down his passes. Mahomes’ struggles last night don’t have much to do with Brady, and Brady’s success last night doesn’t have much to do with Mahomes.

The head-to-head stuff with QBs never made much sense to me for this reason.
It's all narrative. Of course Brady didn't do anything to keep Mahomes down yesterday, but as long as people care about QB wins and which QB has the most super bowls, the head to head matchups will matter. Peyton Manning's failure against Brady/Belichick was a HUGE part of his story in the first part of his career, and if he hadn't got his chance at redemption in 2006 (and again in 2013/2015), it would've definitely changed his place in history.

Additionally, there are circumstances in which head to head matchups are placed in their proper context. No one discounts Jordan's career for going 0-2 in the playoffs against Bird and the Celtics, because in those series it was clear going in that the Celtics were the far superior team and the Bulls weren't ready. Both in the AFC title game and this year's Super Bowl, Mahomes' team was the favorite against Brady, and in between those games, Mahomes won a title. This wasn't the old guard beating down on the young superstar not yet in his prime, on a team not yet ready to win it all. Brady was the underdog (twice) and when it counted, he won.

The GOAT discussion is an open-ended argument, without rules. These losses definitely count against him when viewed in that light.
 

Bozo Texino

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I think he gets one more for sure. He clearly has the talent to win more than that, but between turnover and possible injuries, it'll be difficult.
 

Cellar-Door

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Maybe 1-2 more?
Looking at non-Brady top QBs....
Manning (Peyton) and Rodgers are often considered top 5 or so all-time.

They had a combined 30 seasons as starters... they only MADE 4 Superbowls, winning 3.
So even if you're a great QB and you play for a lot of seasons, AND you win most times you get there.... you still probably only get a few shots.
 

Shelterdog

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The talking point this morning is that Bowles devised a game plan that can stop KC, and now every team will use it.

Yeah, right.

We've seen this before ... when the Giants beat the Patriots in 07. If it was that easy, the Patriots should've become easier to beat over the next 10 seasons. Didn't happen.

It's scheme ... and personnel. Maybe the Ratbirds, maybe (with a few more pieces) the Bills. But who has the front seven that the Bucs put on display last night?

Getting past the Chiefs isn't going to be easy for the next 3-5 years, which gives Mahomes a fighting chance
It's a particularly apt comparison. Stephen Neal missed most of the 07 superbowl and Kaczur played the whole game hurt, and that's a big part of why a very good Giants DL could get pressure with four all day. Same story yesterday--the Fischer injury was just too much for the Chiefs to handle against a good d line.

Good solid consistent oline play (which largely comes from having a consistent group of guys play on your line for a long time) is the invisible engine that drives all these teams. And the "blueprints" so often rely on a particularly good d-line or a particularly banged up o-line.
 

EL Jeffe

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I went with 2. KC is well-positioned to stay in the hunt for the next few seasons and their star players have taken very team-friendly deals (thus far). I can see them winning a few more, but they can also start to fall back to the pack a bit. Kelce is the same age as Gronk, and while he has the MUCH cleaner injury history, at some point the cumulative total of all those collisions will start to exact a toll. He's the engine of that receiving group, so if he slows down, there will be ripple effects. The OL is going to have to be rebuilt, which is easier said than done. Frank Clark has a monster contract but is coming off (for him) a so-so year. Blip, or is he starting a decline? Mathieu has a $20m cap hit in 2021, so something will need to happen there. How much do they want to invest into his 30s? Who knows how long Reid wants to coach or what happens when he leaves.

There's a ton of talent, and it begins with Mahomes, so they obviously aren't going anywhere any time soon. But they're going to run into the same problems that pop up for every would-be dynasty; to date NE is the only team that was able to keep it going.
 

E5 Yaz

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It's a particularly apt comparison. Stephen Neal missed most of the 07 superbowl and Kaczur played the whole game hurt, and that's a big part of why a very good Giants DL could get pressure with four all day. Same story yesterday--the Fischer injury was just too much for the Chiefs to handle against a good d line.

Good solid consistent oline play (which largely comes from having a consistent group of guys play on your line for a long time) is the invisible engine that drives all these teams. And the "blueprints" so often rely on a particularly good d-line or a particularly banged up o-line.
And this in no way downplaying what Bowles drew up ... by all accounts he took that first meeting hard and was determined not to let that happen again.

It's just, as you said, so much more goes into it. Not every team is going to have the players to make that work.

Meanwhile, if that performance last night doesn't get Bowles a HC job in the next go-round, then something's really amiss
 

rodderick

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It's a particularly apt comparison. Stephen Neal missed most of the 07 superbowl and Kaczur played the whole game hurt, and that's a big part of why a very good Giants DL could get pressure with four all day. Same story yesterday--the Fischer injury was just too much for the Chiefs to handle against a good d line.

Good solid consistent oline play (which largely comes from having a consistent group of guys play on your line for a long time) is the invisible engine that drives all these teams. And the "blueprints" so often rely on a particularly good d-line or a particularly banged up o-line.
Yup. The Bucs could have played this exact same game and gotten torched if they were less talented, but I still think playing two safeties deep and not going overkill with blitzing is the best way to approach their offense. Play a lot of cover one/three and you're basically dead in the water. Make them go 8, 9 plays to score. More often than not they'll do it, but still.
 

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I went three, but it could be any number on that list and it wouldn't shock me, though anything above 4 would be incredible. He's an amazing talent: I think a small handful of QBs in their primes could put up Mahomes numbers with his offense but it's a small number. I think most great NFL QBs do worse than he did last night with the pressure on him (like that was worse than Brady/Giants) and his receivers let him down. However, beyond the sheer difficulty of winning a Super Bowl, there's a lot of yellow flags. He took some hits last night that most QBs wouldn't have because they wouldn't be running around like a crazy person to buy his WRs one more second. That hit with JPP/Suh/White (I think) last night was terrifying and in these playoffs he was knocked out a couple other times. He doesn't have a decorated injury history but one or two more concussions or another knee/foot injury could hamper his potential a ton. I also think he's been fortunate to work with the offensive talent he has. Kelce and Hill are all-pro talents, Hill's one of a few WRs who requires a defense to work around him, and he had a lot of rawer pieces around him with good skillsets. I wonder what that will look like when the salary cap crunch comes into play and KC needs to make decisions that either require him to rely on less transcendent talents or make him put up 40 a game because the D isn't there.

I've just noticed he often works himself out of jams by scrambling for seven seconds and hitting a WR who finally broke away from their coverage. The time in pocket splits back this up: anything over 2.5 seconds in the pocket he throws a lot deeper, is more prone to interceptions, and his completion rate plummets. He's still great, just a different QB. I don't know if that continues if you don't have Kelce and Hill being the targets in those scenarios. At some point that'll bite him or his scrambling will become less effective. I also wonder how he'll adjust as, inevitably, different offenses come into play. Last night was noticeable as, despite being down three scores, they were huddling up and running 20 seconds off the clock between plays. That led me to look at his splits (since PFR has tracked them for Brady, so not complete)

Of his 1618 passing attempts, 34 were no huddle and 165 were under the center. He is spending 90% of his time in the shotgun and 98% of his time in huddles on passing plays. Over 10% of Brady's passes were in no-huddle over his career (with small degradation stat wise) and about 70% in shotgun. I'm not super concerned about huddle/shot-gun, but we've seen that Brady has won a few super bowls due to his ability to be deadly in a no-huddle. It feels like he should be even more dangerous in a no-huddle but the severe reticence to run it is a little concerning to me, especially with the meh results doing it thus far. I spot checked a handful of prominent NFL QBs and the lowest number in terms of no-huddle I could find otherwise was 6% with Lamar Jackson. Most others range from 8-14% or so. Russell Wilson is probably the best comparison: mobile QB with a rocket arm who ran no huddle about 4-5% of the time, so it's not a true hindrance but I think worth noting. Russell has also dealt with garbage O-Lines and great WR talent and hasn't made it back to the SB since a tough loss to Brady. Kyler Murray just runs no-huddle for fun but nearly everyone else is in that 8-14% range in terms of top QBs.

I think he's the best QB in football and has plenty of talent around him right now. If anyone is going to win 3+ beyond Brady that is currently playing it's probably him, but it's a big ask and I still think the jury is out on whether he can adjust himself to different talent types over the years as Brady (and Rodgers, Manning, etc.) did and, if so, what that looks like. We saw last night what a collapsing line does: it forces him to scramble and make miracle pass attempts.

Edit: To be clear, I don't think any QB wins that game last night at QB with that line play. I do think Mahomes play style, KC's vertical offense, and the like really emphasized that there is a weakness there though. I was consistently surprised at the lack of screen plays, short passes, running back passes, etc. as the game went on.
 
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lexrageorge

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Yup. The Bucs could have played this exact same game and gotten torched if they were less talented, but I still think playing two safeties deep and not going overkill with blitzing is the best way to approach their offense. Play a lot of cover one/three and you're basically dead in the water. Make them go 8, 9 plays to score. More often than not they'll do it, but still.
The "book" on beating Brady was to generate pressure up the middle while keeping enough defenders in coverage so that Brady couldn't find an open check down. It wasn't easy; more often than not, the Pats OLine would hold up well enough, and the Pats had enough talent to run screens and other plays to extend drives when the pressure was getting too heavy.

Tampa was able to play that some book against Mahomes in terms of generating pressure while keeping Hill covered. Still required perfect execution, but it's hard to see how any QB would have succeeded with the pressure that Mahomes was seeing. The foot injury may have contributed as well.
 

reggiecleveland

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Agreed. I mean TB played great and maybe was indeed the best team in the league by the end. But KC...

- Had a hobbling Mahomes
- Had a decimated offensive line
- Didn't get good ref luck (let's be honest...I mean they did commit penalties but I can see why KC fans are salty about it)
- Had a team dealing with a terrible personal situation with the head coach
- Faced a ferocious defensive line

It's not too often that all that stuff is going to come together in a game. Not saying TB didn't deserve to win - obviously they did - but there were quite a few things going against KC last night.
But this is why it is is so hard to win one. If we are playing if, well TB could have 10.

Gronk was hurt, other TE in jail
Helmut Catch
500 Yards passing in a loss

Also health. I think he probably wins one or two more, but he took some shots last night, and was hobbled. As exciting as it is the fly around throw crazy passes from all angles does not seem the style to last 10 more years.
 

BigSoxFan

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But this is why it is is so hard to win one. If we are playing if, well TB could have 10.

Gronk was hurt, other TE in jail
Helmut Catch
500 Yards passing in a loss

Also health. I think he probably wins one or two more, but he took some shots last night, and was hobbled. As exciting as it is the fly around throw crazy passes from all angles does not seem the style to last 10 more years.
Hernandez did play in SB46 and scored the TD to make it 17-9 early in the 3rd. But, yes, Gronk was definitely at like 40-50% with that ankle sprain.
 

Hoya81

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I'd say 1 more. The AFC is shaping up to be the much more competitive conference for the next few years, with a good crop of young QBs (Watson, Jackson, Allen, Mayfield, Herbert, Burrow) and a fair amount of effective veterans (Ben, Tannehill, Carr).
Combine that with the cap jail that KC is about to be in (exacerbated by how COVID stopped all the expected cap growth), I'd rather be in the NFC.
 

rodderick

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I think we have to take into account that the AFC is loaded with good young QBs, especially if Trevor Lawrence turns out to be halfway as good as his potential indicates he could be. Right now Mahomes has the edge on all of those guys in roster talent and coaching, but if/when that flips he'll probably be in a dogfight in the playoffs every year for a good while. I think Mahomes is great and the best QB of the bunch, but he's not that much greater than guys like Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Deshaun Watson and potentially Burrow and Justin Herbert that they won't give him trouble if their teams are good enough.
 

Bergs

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I went with 3, but I don't know why. I think 2 is a more likely outcome, with 1 (0 more) very much in play.
 

SemperFidelisSox

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I voted 1 more. When Brady won his first Super Bowl, Belichick was only 50 years old. Andy Reid will be 63 next month. If Mahomes is going to go on the kind of run Brady has, he’s likely going to have to do it with a new coach and system at some point. Maybe within the next five years. And Hall of Fame coaches don’t grow on trees.
 

genoasalami

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The big question is: How long can he play a free wheeling style? It's not a problem at 25, but how about 30 or 35? He has incredible skills, but can he learn to play at a high level while protecting his body?
 

E5 Yaz

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The big question is: How long can he play a free wheeling style? It's not a problem at 25, but how about 30 or 35? He has incredible skills, but can he learn to play at a high level while protecting his body?
He could last as long as Favre
 

reggiecleveland

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It was somewhat cavalier, but I took Nantz' point to be that Mahomes' loss was a 2 game swing. Mahomes went from being down 6-2 in SB wins to 7-1, so 4 wins down to 6 wins down. IF Mahomes had had a chance to catch Brady, the odds had taken a significant hit.
I thought they were just musing about how great Brady's achievement was. That even given the unlikelihood he wins 6 more Brady had beaten him head to head. Romo even said if Mahomes could beat Brady next year, them laughed saying it was tough to give much to beating a guy who is 44 that beat you the year before.

It was like when people would say in 1979 that is Rice hit 40 homers a year for the next ten years he would still be 180 behind Hank Aaron.
 

bakahump

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Mahomes is amazing. the Darts he was throwing while on the run or near Parallel to the freaking ground were insane.

That said. At some point Kelce, AssHill and the rest of the weapons that any QB needs gets expensive. Then as other posters have pointed out you need to protect the Qb and THAT gets expensive....especially when your picking 28 (even 24) to 32 in the draft every year.
And you do have to defend a little.

Finally I dont think Mahomes will age well. He is already pretty gimpy alot of the time. Thats a function of being like Aaron Rodgers (another guy with immense talent whose "extension of plays" while amazing often put him in positions to get hurt).

Only one guy has been able to put together the right combo.
Good enough weapons (much due to Luck...edelman, Gronk, White)
Good enough Defense
A really good coach who was/is kinda risk averse with the roster. So no big FA money wasters....when we can spend that $ on a TEAM on the field that will put us in contention.
A GM who while didnt hit on every high end pick was good enough to pull diamonds from the 3rd,4th,5th,6th rounds pretty consistanly.
Being good enough and SMART enough to throw it away when its the right move.
(which allowed him to be....) Healthy enough to play 20 years+. I mean playing in 10 SBs is amazing! Unfathomable to be doing that in a 12-15 year career. I mean someone will need a 22 year HIGH performing career to make 10 SBs.
A relative bargain for most of his career which allowed the team to spend at other positions.

There is no way IMHO that mahomes is playing at a top 2 or 3 QB age 32 on.

I think he wins another....and possibly 2. but thats it.