Predicting and Opining on the Opening Day CFer; and SPOILER: It's Sizemore

C4CRVT · Mar 19, 2014

Everything you wrote makes total sense to me.

Savin Hillbilly · Mar 19, 2014

I've come all the way around on this. Sizemore has earned the job. I'm still not convinced signing him was necessary, or even, perhaps, in the best long-term interest of the club, but right now, he belongs in CF, and unless we can swing a trade for Carp or Nava, JBJ belongs in Pawtucket (on speed dial in case Sizemore or Victorino goes down).

Saints Rest · Mar 19, 2014

I tend to agree with TheoSchmeo on pretty much all points.

Basically, the Sox have 6 guys to fill 5 slots. The most likely solution, and the one that is most in line with their recent history, is the simplest: to sent JBJ to the minors.

The one scenario wherein I could see JBJ in the majors in early April (aside from injury) is theSox getting a good return on a trade for either Carp or Nava.

I don't have much opinion on the Sox keeping one over the other -- I think each has skills to offer not only the Sox but other teams. The key will be whether some other teams needs either the power potential of Carp or the OBA skills of Nava (I don't think either of them bring enough to the table defensively to make that much of a factor).

If the return could be decent, I'm not too worried about replacing either one if an injury or ineffectiveness requires the Sox to get to #7 on their OF depth chart. This is not the same situation as trading Arroyo. Assuming the Sox were to trade either Carp or Nava . . .
Scenario 1: Sizemore breaks into little pieces. Then JBJ moves into the starting position in CF, and we are left with Gomes and Nava/Carp platooning in LF, with Nava/Carp still available to give Napoli the occasional day off. Brentz, I imagine would come up to fill in in RF for days when Victorino or JBJ needs a day off.

Scenario 2: Victorino goes on the DL. Pretty much the same, except JBJ (or Sizemore) takes over RF, with LF remaining the same, and Brnetz still filling the role of 5th OF/backup RF.

Scenario 3: Nava/Carp is injured. Then we likely see Gomes playing more regularly. Perhaps Lavarnway is borught up as backup 1B, and they make do with 4 OF.

In any case, we would be talking about the falloff from the traded half of Carp/Nava to Brentz or Lavarnway for probably one or two games per week. I think that's marginal enough that the return on the trade combined with the potential benefit of keeping JBJ in Boston are likely enough to cover.

luckysox · Mar 19, 2014

I think we're going to see Sizemore start, but JBJ on the bench, along with the Gomes/Nava platoon partner, because I see Carp getting dealt. Then Farrell has to simply work his magic between Gomes/Nava/JBJ/Sizemore/Vic/Nap. I think with that group, which includes a couple of guys with serious platoon splits and a couple of guys who are hurt or banged up often enough to need a few days, there will be plenty of platting time for everyone. This is what I want to see happen. The downside is giving up on Carp. But you get something in return because he's no slouch. I just don't see how you can carry Nava and Carp. They are the same player (albeit with different skill sets - but they have to plug into the same positions for you).

Red(s)HawksFan · Mar 19, 2014

If Sizemore is healthy on March 31, I don't see anyway he isn't in the lineup and playing CF. Earlier in spring training, I had doubts they'd even attempt to play him there with any regularity for much the same reason they signed Victorino for RF and appear hesitant to let him get any extended time in CF...preservation. But now that they are playing him in CF and he's showing signs of still being a big league player, let him run with it as far as he can. If he breaks down, they still have JBJ. If he doesn't and he returns to some semblance of his pre-injury, All Star form, it's a hell of a boon for the team.

They've got JBJ through at least 2019 and he has two option years left...it's the definition of deep depth. He starts the year in Pawtucket and waits for an injury. If he's going to regress due to spending a bit of extra time in Pawtucket, he'd likely have regressed or failed to progress at the big league level anyway. I'd rather see him get regular playing time there than sit the bench 4-5 out of every 6 games in the big leagues. Between Sizemore and Victorino's fragility, JBJ will likely be up and contributing at some point this season. If he isn't, Gomes and Sizemore are free agents at the end of the season. That means two spots are available on the 2015 roster and JBJ is certainly option #1 to take one of them. Maybe the 2015 outfield is a re-signed Sizemore in RF, JBJ in CF, Nava in LF with Victorino floating between the corners as needed (though primarily he'd be Nava's platoon mate in LF).

3_games_down · Mar 19, 2014

Savin Hillbilly said:
I've come all the way around on this. Sizemore has earned the job. I'm still not convinced signing him was necessary, or even, perhaps, in the best long-term interest of the club, but right now, he belongs in CF, and unless we can swing a trade for Carp or Nava, JBJ belongs in Pawtucket (on speed dial in case Sizemore or Victorino goes down).

I agree that Sizemore has earned the job. I think that competition is healthy for JBJ's development. It is my hope that Bradley is sent down to play with the PawSox unless he is going to get significant playing time with the big ball club.

KillerBs · Mar 19, 2014

This is the best "best shape of his career" spring training story in years, at least since Sizemore's in 2010.

From May 14, 2010:
"Sizemore ended up being 100 percent healthy for spring training, and even put on a performance that made Mark Shapiro say it was the best he's ever seen Sizemore swing the bat.

If we can conclude that the injuries don't seem to be the issue for his lack of power and overall lack of production, what can we conclude?"

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/392250-the-problem-grady-sizemores-power-production

I wish Grady the best and it would surely be a great story if he rebounds and is a productive ML player again. It just strikes me as very long odds, which seriously complicates one of the primary team objectives of 2014: establishing Bradley as a core every day player at the major league level. On top of it, in order to play those long odds we have to watch 30-60-90+ games of a gimpy CFer, apparently backed up regularly by Danny Nava!

Stan Papi Was Framed · Mar 19, 2014

luckysox said:
I think we're going to see Sizemore start, but JBJ on the bench, along with the Gomes/Nava platoon partner, because I see Carp getting dealt. Then Farrell has to simply work his magic between Gomes/Nava/JBJ/Sizemore/Vic/Nap. I think with that group, which includes a couple of guys with serious platoon splits and a couple of guys who are hurt or banged up often enough to need a few days, there will be plenty of platting time for everyone. This is what I want to see happen. The downside is giving up on Carp. But you get something in return because he's no slouch. I just don't see how you can carry Nava and Carp. They are the same player (albeit with different skill sets - but they have to plug into the same positions for you).

much as it pains me to consider Carp's departure, I think this scenario makes the most sense as of now. as luckysox says, JBJ should be able to get enough playing time at the major league level--I don't think he would need to go down to Pawtucket (as long as Carp is dealt). I'm worried the return for carp may be disappointing, though (not that I think he has no value, just that I'm concerned other teams may not be willing to give up a lot for him)

The Boomer · Mar 19, 2014

Stan Papi Was Framed said:
much as it pains me to consider Carp's departure, I think this scenario makes the most sense as of now. as luckysox says, JBJ should be able to get enough playing time at the major league level--I don't think he would need to go down to Pawtucket (as long as Carp is dealt). I'm worried the return for carp may be disappointing, though (not that I think he has no value, just that I'm concerned other teams may not be willing to give up a lot for him)

The Pirates are the perfect match for the Sox. They are trying to unload Tabata who is owed $12 million for the next 3 years. He is a good OF who can play all 3 positions well defensively and has both speed and pop. He has a great arm in the outfield. The Pirates are loaded with outfielders. Their desire to add top prospect Polanco to McCutcheon and Marte could give them potentially the best overall OF in the majors. Behind Polanco, they are loaded with bluechip OF prospects.

I see 2 reasonable scenarios:

1. Trade Carp and Lavarnway for one of their surplus of OF prospects trailing Polanco from among Meadows, Bell or Ramirez that the Pirates would spare.

2. Trade Carp, Lavarnway and the expiring contract of Gomes for Tabata. This is a basketball style trade where the salaries roughly match and the Sox keep Tabata and the last 2 years of his contract that the Pirates want to unload.

The second alternative makes a lot of sense for both teams. Gomes is more what the young contending Pirates need on their bench than Tabata. Righty Tabata better balances the Sox roster. Nava would use his firstbase glove more to spell Napoli (instead of Carp) while the ability of Tabata and Bradley to defensively play all 3 OF positions would give the Sox outfield the kind of deep depth that they covet. Sizemore and Victorino will require plenty of days off to maximize their productivity and avoid aggravating their chronic injuries. Bradley and Tabata would be 4th and 5th outfielders who would play a lot in rotation with their OF elders. The Tabata salary slot is what the Sox are willing to pay for a good platoon type outfielder. The Pirates will be happy to unload his salary while bolstering their own roster with a better suited OF backup/pinchhitter (Gomes) and upgrading at 1B and backup catcher with Carp and Lavarnway.

ji oh · Mar 19, 2014

I've thought about Tabata as well, but reports are that he's not that great an OF, best only in LF, and not a great platoon partner because as a RHH he hits RHP as well as LHP. Used to steal bases, but only three last year.

ji oh · Mar 19, 2014

KillerBs said:
This is the best "best shape of his career" spring training story in years, at least since Sizemore's in 2010.

From May 14, 2010:
"Sizemore ended up being 100 percent healthy for spring training, and even put on a performance that made Mark Shapiro say it was the best he's ever seen Sizemore swing the bat.

If we can conclude that the injuries don't seem to be the issue for his lack of power and overall lack of production, what can we conclude?"

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/392250-the-problem-grady-sizemores-power-production

I wish Grady the best and it would surely be a great story if he rebounds and is a productive ML player again. It just strikes me as very long odds, which seriously complicates one of the primary team objectives of 2014: establishing Bradley as a core every day player at the major league level. On top of it, in order to play those long odds we have to watch 30-60-90+ games of a gimpy CFer, apparently backed up regularly by Danny Nava!

It's good to keep perspective, but also good to remember that Bleacher Report article from 2010 probably has no real sources of information. "Senior writer" probably mean senior in high school.

Drek717 · Mar 20, 2014

luckysox said:
I think we're going to see Sizemore start, but JBJ on the bench, along with the Gomes/Nava platoon partner, because I see Carp getting dealt. Then Farrell has to simply work his magic between Gomes/Nava/JBJ/Sizemore/Vic/Nap. I think with that group, which includes a couple of guys with serious platoon splits and a couple of guys who are hurt or banged up often enough to need a few days, there will be plenty of platting time for everyone. This is what I want to see happen. The downside is giving up on Carp. But you get something in return because he's no slouch. I just don't see how you can carry Nava and Carp. They are the same player (albeit with different skill sets - but they have to plug into the same positions for you).

How are they the same player when they have completely different offensive skills, Mike Carp may or may not have a platoon split, and Mike Carp really isn't much of a ML OF while Daniel Nava really isn't an ML 1B?

Mike Carp can play LF outside of Fenway in a pinch like how Nava could play CF in a pinch. It works for a day or two, but if anyone is seeing an extended period off the field the club will make a roster move to shore up the OF. This is why it makes sense to send Bradley down. He isn't just the insurance policy if Sizemore goes down, he's the insurance policy for Victorino and Nava as well. That is also why they need to hang on to Sizemore. Without both he and Bradley under team control this club is one injury away (to Vic or Bradley) from rushing Brentz into a full time ML job or spending serious time with a Carp/Gomes platoon in left and Nava as an every day player in right.

Mike Carp's role on this team is to insulate the club from injury to Napoli or Ortiz. Having Mike Carp is a huge luxury for this club. You can't acquire someone with his offensive potential mid-season without paying a fortune and as a club competing for the playoffs they need someone who can hit 5th for two months in the middle of summer if one of the big bats gets hurt.

Having Bradley ride the shuttle to keep the extra OF when so many of the current guys all have some sort of deficiency is the best way have enough ML worthy options to meet the team's needs through 2014.

Savin Hillbilly · Mar 20, 2014

ji oh said:
I've thought about Tabata as well, but reports are that he's not that great an OF, best only in LF, and not a great platoon partner because as a RHH he hits RHP as well as LHP. Used to steal bases, but only three last year.

This makes no sense to me. If he hits RHP as well as LHP, that just means he doesn't need to be platooned. Why is that a problem? If he's better vs. RHP than the guy you want to platoon him with, then you play him full time and that guy goes to the bench. If he isn't, then the platoon still works fine (and you get a bonus when the opponent brings in same-side relief pitchers).

If the point is that he really isn't that good vs. LHP either, then that's a problem and you need to look for somebody who is. But the problem can't be that he hits RHH well too.

Plympton91 · Mar 20, 2014

Drek717 said:
How are they the same player when they have completely different offensive skills, Mike Carp may or may not have a platoon split, and Mike Carp really isn't much of a ML OF while Daniel Nava really isn't an ML 1B?

Mike Carp can play LF outside of Fenway in a pinch like how Nava could play CF in a pinch. It works for a day or two, but if anyone is seeing an extended period off the field the club will make a roster move to shore up the OF. This is why it makes sense to send Bradley down. He isn't just the insurance policy if Sizemore goes down, he's the insurance policy for Victorino and Nava as well. That is also why they need to hang on to Sizemore. Without both he and Bradley under team control this club is one injury away (to Vic or Bradley) from rushing Brentz into a full time ML job or spending serious time with a Carp/Gomes platoon in left and Nava as an every day player in right.

Mike Carp's role on this team is to insulate the club from injury to Napoli or Ortiz. Having Mike Carp is a huge luxury for this club. You can't acquire someone with his offensive potential mid-season without paying a fortune and as a club competing for the playoffs they need someone who can hit 5th for two months in the middle of summer if one of the big bats gets hurt.

These are two more great points.

mt8thsw9th · Mar 20, 2014

I'd want Sizemore LF/Bradley CF/Victorino RF, Nava on the bench. Nava's bat is good, but he's a bit of a defensive liability playing everyday in the OF. However, considering the roster crunch that would be created with Nava/Gomes/Carp, it probably makes the most sense to start Bradley in AAA until that is worked out, if it does not happen before Opening Day. Personally, I'd trade Nava as he probably will bring the most back, while Carpgomes could certainly approximate his overall value. Nava's 31 and is still on a team-friendly deal, so there will be bidders. Carp is the better hitter, is three years younger, and would be a better bet to be a LHH DH replacement for Ortiz in 2 or 3 years.

Of course, this type of roster crunch could be avoided with an 11 man pitching staff, but that seems to be a thing of the past.

ivanvamp · Mar 21, 2014

I think unless something very big happens to change the situation, the best thing is to start Sizemore in CF, send JBJ to AAA, and let it roll from there. JBJ is the future. I think we all thought that he'd be the opening day CF, but Sizemore has been really solid and looks great. And if that isn't a mirage, he's a tremendous addition to this team, because at his best, he's a really, REALLY good player. We can only hope that JBJ eventually becomes a really, REALLY good MLB player.

EDIT: I agree with mt8thsw9th…I wish they'd go with an 11-man pitching staff, but oh well.

RedOctober3829 · Mar 21, 2014

Pete Abraham ‏@PeteAbe 1m
Nothing for sure yet. But based on his game schedule and John Farrell’s comments, looks like Sizemore is the Opening Day CF for #redsox

alwyn96 · Mar 21, 2014

ivanvamp said:
I think unless something very big happens to change the situation, the best thing is to start Sizemore in CF, send JBJ to AAA, and let it roll from there. JBJ is the future. I think we all thought that he'd be the opening day CF, but Sizemore has been really solid and looks great. And if that isn't a mirage, he's a tremendous addition to this team, because at his best, he's a really, REALLY good player. We can only hope that JBJ eventually becomes a really, REALLY good MLB player.

EDIT: I agree with mt8thsw9th…I wish they'd go with an 11-man pitching staff, but oh well.

I'm in the JBJr to AAA camp, too. If Sizemore is going to be the opening day CF, I'd rather have Bradley getting PA every day rather than spending half (or more) his time on the bench and never really getting into a groove. I'd guess one (or both!) of Sizemore or Victorino go down with an injury before June, anyway. Bradley will get his shot.

Drek717 · Mar 21, 2014

mt8thsw9th said:
I'd want Sizemore LF/Bradley CF/Victorino RF, Nava on the bench. Nava's bat is good, but he's a bit of a defensive liability playing everyday in the OF. However, considering the roster crunch that would be created with Nava/Gomes/Carp, it probably makes the most sense to start Bradley in AAA until that is worked out, if it does not happen before Opening Day. Personally, I'd trade Nava as he probably will bring the most back, while Carpgomes could certainly approximate his overall value. Nava's 31 and is still on a team-friendly deal, so there will be bidders. Carp is the better hitter, is three years younger, and would be a better bet to be a LHH DH replacement for Ortiz in 2 or 3 years.

Of course, this type of roster crunch could be avoided with an 11 man pitching staff, but that seems to be a thing of the past.

Nava isn't that big of a defensive liability and when we're talking about manning LF offense should always take priority over defense. He and Gomes are a platoon made in heaven.

Honestly, I don't even see a surplus of OFs here. There is a legitimate competition between Sizemore and Bradley, but the guy losing that competition this spring is also the guy who has options left. Adding Sizemore, to me, was a necessary move to shore up CF depth. Maybe the thought was that Sizemore would need more time and they could shuffle him off to extended ST followed by a few weeks of "rehab" at AAA before needing to clear a roster spot (enough time for an early season injury to make an opening), but Sizemore being ahead of that schedule isn't a bad thing or even really creating a log jam.

This club needed a worthwhile CF-capable player who would open the season in AAA and potentially ride the shuttle baring a major injury. That was Jackie Bradley's job last year in fact. It just so happens that it's looking like his job again this year because Sizemore is outplaying him.

mt8thsw9th · Mar 21, 2014

Drek717 said:
That was Jackie Bradley's job last year in fact. It just so happens that it's looking like his job again this year because Sizemore is outplaying him.

Well, JBJr started the year with the team in 2013 thanks to a great Spring, but is getting bumped by someone having a good Spring (and doesn't have options). I could easily see it shaking up with Sizemore being DFA'ed by June given his strong Spring has been largely due to a high BABIP, and the fact that the guy hasn't played at a high level since GWB was president. That is not to say I don't think there is a chance he can contribute, just that you're going to deal with a lot of volatility with a player such as him.

Regarding Nava's defense, yes, he is that bad. Gomes is bad as well. They're useful because they're cheap and can be a bit above average overall. They're like the $2 Budweiser bar special of players: kind of white trash, with some poor qualities, though they end up getting you drunk all the same. They're useless at Sam Adams prices, and when you've got a Sam Adams for $2 as well, you're a moron to choose the Bud. A productive Sizemore is that Sam Adams. That awful metaphor is brought to you by my want for a beer, but I digress.

I thought we were a bit past only valuing offense only at certain non-DH positions? I'm operating under the assumption there's not much separation between Sizemore and Navagomes offensively if Sizemore is healthy and worthy of a roster spot, and I'd prefer a good defender in left over two horrendous ones, while an allegedly GG-quality fielder in JBJr plays CF. Is defense markedly more valuable at certain positions? Obviously, but it's not black and white "offensive positions" and "defensive positions" anymore as we are learning more and more that a good chunk of pitching is defense, and that balls are seemingly hit to positions other than SS and CF. That, and I'd prefer they don't go strict platoon in LF and grab someone who can back up CF as well. That's neither Gomes nor Nava. I should note this is under the assumption JBJr shows by May that he is ready, as a sub-700 OPS JBJr won't be as valuable as Navagomes if they are hitting like they did last year.

Drek717 · Mar 22, 2014

mt8thsw9th said:
Well, JBJr started the year with the team in 2013 thanks to a great Spring, but is getting bumped by someone having a good Spring (and doesn't have options). I could easily see it shaking up with Sizemore being DFA'ed by June given his strong Spring has been largely due to a high BABIP, and the fact that the guy hasn't played at a high level since GWB was president. That is not to say I don't think there is a chance he can contribute, just that you're going to deal with a lot of volatility with a player such as him.

Bradley broke camp with the team last year because there was a roster spot wide open for him with Ortiz missing the start of the season. His strong spring made him the #1 candidate for the 26th man job and it just so happened that the 26th man was on the opening day roster last year. If Victorino has a set back the same thing could happen this year.

Also, the risk of Sizemore being a total bust is a lot smaller than the risk of injury to a roster devoid of Sizemore when/if Bradley or Victorino misses any real time. Who is the next CF capable player in the Red Sox farm system? AAAA All-Star Corey Brown? Matty Johnson and his .672 AA OPS making the jump? If Sizemore breaks again or simply fails to hit it's one roster move to reset to the previously presumed status quo. The only real loss would be a few weeks of offensive production from CF if he simply can't hit, when there's no guarantee Bradley can either. You start with Sizemore at CF and Bradley in AAA because that gives you the most layers of depth and depth rules in the early months of the season.

Regarding Nava's defense, yes, he is that bad. Gomes is bad as well. They're useful because they're cheap and can be a bit above average overall. They're like the $2 Budweiser bar special of players: kind of white trash, with some poor qualities, though they end up getting you drunk all the same. They're useless at Sam Adams prices, and when you've got a Sam Adams for $2 as well, you're a moron to choose the Bud. A productive Sizemore is that Sam Adams. That awful metaphor is brought to you by my want for a beer, but I digress.

I simply don't see the argument for Nava as a horrendous OF. If he was that bad the team wouldn't be letting him work in CF some this spring. He wouldn't have played as many innings in RF as he did in LF last year either for that matter. The team would have made a roster move before his bat got a chance to prove his worth. UZR hates him, sure, but his sample size is way too small for UZR to be accurate and it historically doesn't address Fenway's corner OF dimensions well at all (ex: the 5-10 run UZR/150 gain for Manny Ramirez when he went from Boston to LA, despite getting older and slower). DRS has him as basically average if you look at his corner OF stats for his career.

I thought we were a bit past only valuing offense only at certain non-DH positions? I'm operating under the assumption there's not much separation between Sizemore and Navagomes offensively if Sizemore is healthy and worthy of a roster spot, and I'd prefer a good defender in left over two horrendous ones, while an allegedly GG-quality fielder in JBJr plays CF. Is defense markedly more valuable at certain positions? Obviously, but it's not black and white "offensive positions" and "defensive positions" anymore as we are learning more and more that a good chunk of pitching is defense, and that balls are seemingly hit to positions other than SS and CF. That, and I'd prefer they don't go strict platoon in LF and grab someone who can back up CF as well. That's neither Gomes nor Nava. I should note this is under the assumption JBJr shows by May that he is ready, as a sub-700 OPS JBJr won't be as valuable as Navagomes if they are hitting like they did last year.

I was hoping we could skip the part where we wildly over-value defense at the expense of offense, but clearly that isn't happening.

You don't score runs with the glove. At some point people need to get hits, preferably with guys on base. By your logic why aren't we discussing the merits of Deven Marrero breaking camp as the starting SS since he's almost definitely the best defensive SS in the organization right now. We all hope Bogaerts is average defensively, hasn't proven his bat at the ML level, and is going to be playing one of the two or three most important defensive positions no the diamond. So if anywhere you sacrifice offense for defense it's in that scenario, right? Except Bogaerts is going to potentially post a .750-.800 OPS while Marrero would be lucky to sit at .650. Kind of like how a straight Nava/Gomes platoon is fairly likely to post an OPS north of .850 while Bradley isn't a sure bet to be north of .700.

We're talking about left field in Fenway for half the year and most other games spent in comparatively tight AL ball parks. It's not exactly center field in Chavez Ravine.

The Nava/Gomes platoon also isn't what's blocking the team from carrying an extra CF capable OF either. It's carrying Mike Carp as a firewall in case of injury to Ortiz or Napoli, so the team doesn't find itself spending all of June, July, and August watching Alex Hassan or Ryan Lavarnway learn ML pitching at 1B/DH in a pennant race. Because offense matters too.

At some point there needs to be an acknowledgement that defensive metrics still aren't that good when they claim Shane Victorino's glove alone was worth over $14M. That's outright absurd and the entire baseball world confirmed it when he didn't get a contract for $14M total as a free agent just the winter before despite always being an elite defender. Defense is important, but lets not massively over-correct.

Frisbetarian · Mar 22, 2014

Daniel Nava has played 1460 2/3 innings in left field in his MLB career (1458 innings is a full 162 game season), and his total "advanced" defensive stats for the position are: UZR -8.7 runs, Total Zone +4 runs, and Fielding Bible +1 run. There is no statistical reason to label him a terrible fielder, and certainly not at the same level as Jonny Gomes who, per 150 games in 3069 1/3 innings in left, is -11.6 UZR, -18 TZ, and -14.8 FB. I also see no observational reason to call Nava a brutal left fielder. I think he is a touch below average at a defensive position that ranks low in importance on the defensive spectrum.

Al Zarilla · Mar 22, 2014

Frisbetarian said:
Daniel Nava has played 1460 2/3 innings in left field in his MLB career (1458 innings is a full 162 game season), and his total "advanced" defensive stats for the position are: UZR -8.7 runs, Total Zone +4 runs, and Fielding Bible +1 run. There is no statistical reason to label him a terrible fielder, and certainly not at the same level as Jonny Gomes who, per 150 games in 3069 1/3 innings in left, is -11.6 UZR, -18 TZ, and -14.8 FB. I also see no observational reason to call Nava a brutal left fielder. I think he is a touch below average at a defensive position that ranks low in importance on the defensive spectrum.

Gomes probably doesn't get any extra credit for his green monster play in any of those stats, does he? Carl Crawford comes to mind as a terrible GM player while he was here. Gomes is no Yaz with the wall, but I think he's taken upon himself to make that a positive, best he can do with that aspect.

Wake's knuckle · Mar 22, 2014

Let's not forget that a lot of these statistical evaluators of defense often struggle with LFs in Fenway -- the Monster f's with their algorithms.

Doctor G · Mar 22, 2014

JBJ simply hasn't "made" the team based on his spring stats. He knows that, and has seen WMB go down last year after being handed a starting job.
I think it is better from a development POV for him to start at Pawtucket, rather than possibly get sent back for a second consecutive year.

LondonSox · Mar 22, 2014

Making the team on spring training stats is as stupid this year as it was last.
He wasn't ready then, he might be now and I would hope that spring training has little to do with that.

Last year there was a gap for him due to injury, this year he might have to wait for an injury.

I don't really agree, it seems pretty clear that the Sox were ready to give him the job based off the offseason, to abandon that because sizemore might be useful for a while seems a poor long term decision, but likely one that won't cost much as long as he gets starts in AAA and as long as if Sizemore gets banged up or doesn't perform they cut bait.

Rasputin · Mar 22, 2014

A question popped into my head while I was reading the Jeter thread earlier.

Who do you think is going to play more games, Jeter or Sizemore?

TheYaz67 · Mar 22, 2014

Hmmmm... good one. I'm inclined to say Jeter, since he has historically been pretty durable and healthy (and Grady has not after his first 5 seasons at least) during his career until recently. But at the same time, Jeter is like a decade older than Sizemore, and guys his age coming off recent injuries tend to be fairly fragile.... certainly a toss up in alot of ways, I agree...

ookami7m · Mar 23, 2014

Jeter can DH, so that will pad his numbers. If you're only talking about in the field, then that's a good question.

Soxfan in Fla · Mar 23, 2014

The thought of Nava playing CF is downright frightening. Cannot see him having good enough range for the position.

Drek717 · Mar 23, 2014

LondonSox said:
I don't really agree, it seems pretty clear that the Sox were ready to give him the job based off the offseason, to abandon that because sizemore might be useful for a while seems a poor long term decision, but likely one that won't cost much as long as he gets starts in AAA and as long as if Sizemore gets banged up or doesn't perform they cut bait.

Feeling like Bradley is ready to be a capable starting CF and feeling like Bradley is 100% ready for the majors are two entirely different things. Where they going to sign a CF long term and block Bradley? No. Where they going to pay someone like Chris Young $7.25M to give them very possibly similar production as Bradley on a one year deal? Also no.

But Sizemore costs only slightly more than Bradley and has a far higher upside. The downside is that Sizemore can't stay healthy or can't hit anymore, in which case Bradley is up in a month and he becomes arbitration eligible a year later than he would otherwise. The upside is that Sizemore is back and hits like an All-Star. The likely outcome is that someone in the OF mix isn't going to contribute very much due to injury and making the initial move to go with Sizemore is actually buying insurance for that more than it's picking Sizemore over Bradley. I will be very surprised if by the end of 2014 Jackie Bradley doesn't accrue >400 PAs at the ML level.

CoRP · Mar 23, 2014

Grady appears to be the opening day CF according to multiple twitter feeds. Red Sox twitter feed says: It's officially the last week of #SoxSpring. Farrell mentioned you'll see 2014 regular lineup just about all week starting today. Pete Abe confims Sizemore in center this week. As does Maureen Mullin and Sean McAdam.

CoRP · Mar 25, 2014

Apparently not a done deal.

Per Brian MacPherson - "On Bradley Jr. and Sizemore, Farrell said, "it's probably an either-or."

Speier: "Farrell says Sox are still having internal conversation about whether Sizemore or Bradley will be opening day CF."

Red(s)HawksFan · Mar 25, 2014

CoRP said:
Apparently not a done deal.

Per Brian MacPherson - "On Bradley Jr. and Sizemore, Farrell said, "it's probably an either-or."

Speier: "Farrell says Sox are still having internal conversation about whether Sizemore or Bradley will be opening day CF."

Wonder if Victorino's health is playing into the delay in saying anything definitive regarding CF? Sizemore and Bradley are both in the lineup today, with Bradley playing RF. Seems like a test for a contingency plan should Victorino be unable to go come Monday.

CoRP · Mar 25, 2014

The tweets I have read imply that it's either-or if Vic Torino is healthy. Otherwise it's both.

koufax37 · Mar 25, 2014

Red(s)HawksFan said:
Wonder if Victorino's health is playing into the delay in saying anything definitive regarding CF? Sizemore and Bradley are both in the lineup today, with Bradley playing RF. Seems like a test for a contingency plan should Victorino be unable to go come Monday.

Right. If Victorino is healthy JBJ is in Pawtucket until an injury or trade or major slump. But in the possible case he isn't, or they run into some Sizemore limitations in the final week, hold back your decision, so that you don't "send" a guy to the minors only to call him back up instantly.

Plympton91 · Mar 25, 2014

Drek717 said:
I was hoping we could skip the part where we wildly over-value defense at the expense of offense, but clearly that isn't happening.

You don't score runs with the glove. At some point people need to get hits, preferably with guys on base.

I wanted to come back to this because I agree with it so fully. Bill James broke it down in Win Shares that offense was 47 percent of a "win" and defense 53 percent. But, of that defense, at least half is "Pitching" and usually more than that. So, that means defense is 26.5 percent of a win, or, 26.5/(47+26.5) = 36 percent of an everyday player's value. That's probably then 40-45 percent for skill positions like SS and CF, and 25-30 percent for easy positions like LF in Fenway Park. If you're giving a player more than 1/3 of his value for his defense, you're overvaluing it, especially a LF.

Hank Scorpio · Mar 25, 2014

If Carp can be moved and the front office is comfortable with Nava filling in for Napoli from time to time (or either Nava or Lavarnway covering any DL stints), then it's entirely plausible, and perhaps even wise to carry both JBJ and Sizemore, considering durability issues in both Grady and Victorino.

For RHP, you could run with a rotation of:

1: Nava LF, Sizemore CF, Victorino RF
2: Nava LF, Bradley CF, Victorino RF
3: Nava LF, Sizemore CF, Bradley RF
4: Sizemore LF, Bradley CF, Victorino RF

And for LHP:

1: Gomes LF, Sizemore CF, Victorino RF
2: Gomes LF, Bradley CF, Victorino RF

Sizemore and Victorino aren't going to play 162 games, and if you have both Nava and Gomes roaming the OF, you're going to be shorting yourself on both offense (Nava vs a LHP, or Gomes vs a RHP), and defense (Nava in RF, Gomes in LF).

Followed religiously, that would work out to about 110 starts each for Bradley and Sizemore, 132 for Victorino, 45 for Gomes and 87 for Nava. Obviously things change over the course of the season, but it would strengthen the defense overall and hopefully help keep guys from getting too banged up. In the end, Bradley would probably wind up with more starts with Victorino getting more rest. Nava would probably pick up about 20 starts at first as well, even if Napoli stays healthy.

Reverend · Mar 26, 2014

Hank Scorpio said:
If Carp can be moved and the front office is comfortable with Nava filling in for Napoli from time to time (or either Nava or Lavarnway covering any DL stints), then it's entirely plausible, and perhaps even wise to carry both JBJ and Sizemore, considering durability issues in both Grady and Victorino.

For RHP, you could run with a rotation of:

1: Nava LF, Sizemore CF, Victorino RF
2: Nava LF, Bradley CF, Victorino RF
3: Nava LF, Sizemore CF, Bradley RF
4: Sizemore LF, Bradley CF, Victorino RF

And for LHP:

1: Gomes LF, Sizemore CF, Victorino RF
2: Gomes LF, Bradley CF, Victorino RF

Sizemore and Victorino aren't going to play 162 games, and if you have both Nava and Gomes roaming the OF, you're going to be shorting yourself on both offense (Nava vs a LHP, or Gomes vs a RHP), and defense (Nava in RF, Gomes in LF).

Followed religiously, that would work out to about 110 starts each for Bradley and Sizemore, 132 for Victorino, 45 for Gomes and 87 for Nava. Obviously things change over the course of the season, but it would strengthen the defense overall and hopefully help keep guys from getting too banged up. In the end, Bradley would probably wind up with more starts with Victorino getting more rest. Nava would probably pick up about 20 starts at first as well, even if Napoli stays healthy.

<3

The Mort Report · Mar 26, 2014

Something that people have touched on but, unless I missed it, never have straight come out and said, if both are capable and everyone is healthy, the best possible decision is JBJ starting in AAA due to it gives this years team the best OF scenario. If one of our OFers goes down, JBJ is the replacement. If we trade say Carp to get JBJ on the Opening Day roster, then who comes up in case of an injury? An injury will happen, so at some point this year we will see JBJ. Isn't that better than anyone behind him? Its also not like we are talking about a 28 year old that is a year away from FA. He's 23, we still control him for a while. Spending a year, if it comes to that, in AAA will not destroy his prospect status. Yes, the pitching is not as good, but 600 PA in AAA is better than 200 in the MLB for his development. If Sizemore and Vic are healthy, JBJ will not get many at bats. Lets send him to AAA and call him up when we need him instead of trading from our depth now, then suddenly have to possibly overpay at the deadline

Rasputin · Mar 26, 2014

All you have to do to justify keeping both Bradley and Sizemore is think Bradley can approximate Nava's OBP v RHP because we know Bradley plays better defense, neither of them is a base stealer, and it's almost impossible to be worse at hitting lefties than Nava.

Start the three guys who can play center. Gomes can give any of them a day off by playing left.

Frank Fenway · Mar 26, 2014

Rasputin said:
All you have to do to justify keeping both Bradley and Sizemore is think Bradley can approximate Nava's OBP v RHP because we know Bradley plays better defense, neither of them is a base stealer, and it's almost impossible to be worse at hitting lefties than Nava.

Start the three guys who can play center. Gomes can give any of them a day off by playing left.

Well in his extremely limited time in 2013, Bradley was markedly worse than Nava versus LHP.

Drek717 · Mar 26, 2014

Rasputin said:
All you have to do to justify keeping both Bradley and Sizemore is think Bradley can approximate Nava's OBP v RHP because we know Bradley plays better defense, neither of them is a base stealer, and it's almost impossible to be worse at hitting lefties than Nava.

Start the three guys who can play center. Gomes can give any of them a day off by playing left.

Yeah, I mean how hard is it to put up a .411 OBP right? That's getting on base less than half the time, any jamoke should be able to pull that off.

judyb · Mar 26, 2014

All you have to do to justify keeping both Bradley and Sizemore is think Bradley can approximate Nava's OBP v RHP because we know Bradley plays better defense, neither of them is a base stealer, and it's almost impossible to be worse at hitting lefties than Nava.

Start the three guys who can play center. Gomes can give any of them a day off by playing left.

Sure, and all you have to do to justify whatever you want to justify is to choose to think something that would justify it.

joe dokes · Mar 26, 2014

The way things are trending (i.e., this week), Sizemore will play more games this season than Ellsbury and Victorino combined.

Savin Hillbilly · Mar 26, 2014

Frank said:
Well in his extremely limited time in 2013, Bradley was markedly worse than Nava versus LHP.

Right, because 78 PA from a 23-year-old seeing ML pitching for the first time are totally comparable to 397 PA from a 30-year-old veteran.

JBJ may never match Nava's career .390 OBP vs. RHP, but judging by his overall .404 minor league OBP, it's reasonable to suspect that he can.

Rasputin · Mar 26, 2014

Drek717 said:
Yeah, I mean how hard is it to put up a .411 OBP right? That's getting on base less than half the time, any jamoke should be able to pull that off.

Because the guy with the .352 BABIP is likely to repeat that and the guy with the OBPs in the .370s in AA and AAA is likely to be just terrible at getting on base.

Van Everyman · Mar 26, 2014

Is DL-ing Victorino to start the season an option? He's only played 8 games this spring according to Abraham:

http://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/2014/03/25/grady-sizemore-play-has-him-front-and-center-for-red-sox/14wncvdfrMInl12NuiKSUJ/story.html

Predicting and Opining on the Opening Day CFer; and SPOILER: It's Sizemore

Who does Farrell Start in CF on March 31 and for the immediate future beyond then?

Sizemore

JBJ

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