Predict the Playoffs

[luckiestman]

AFC:

 Cincy over SD
Indy over KC

Indy over DEN
NE over Cincy

NE over Indy


NFC:

SF over GB
PHI over NO

PHI over Carolina
SF over SEA

SF OVER PHI

Super Bowl: 

SF over NE 15 to 13 (5 fgs to 2 tds but failed 2pt conversion at the end of the game) 

 

[crystalline]

What do you mean by "HFA skeptic?" It's indisputably a real thing - every single team in the league has a better point differential at home since 2002 - though maybe the effect isn't as dramatic as folks think (Seattle has the most dramatic HFA and they're 10 points better at home than on the road; average is between 5 and 6).

 
Yes I meant it wasn't as dramatic as folks think - it's clearly real.
 
However looking it over a little more closely, it's a pretty big effect.  Your table combined with this shows that Seattle's HFA takes them from an average 40% chance of winning on the road to an average 70% chance of winning at home.  The bottom quartile is about a 4 point diff - or 45% win on the road, 55% win at home.  Even that's a big shift.  (Not as big as talent difference and matchups)

 

[crystalline]

There's a greater than 50% chance that one of the favorites will get upset, but Denver/Seattle is by far the most likely SB matchup. Any other prediction is playing a hunch.

 
On odds:
This gives the Bovada odds.
Converting to probabilities gives:
 

Team	Odds	Implied chance of SB win
Denver Broncos	11/4	22.7%
New England Patriots	9/1	8.5%
Cincinnati Bengals	16/1	5.0%
Indianapolis Colts	28/1	2.9%
Kansas City Chiefs	25/1	3.3%
San Diego Chargers	40/1	2.1%
Seattle Seahawks	11/4	22.7%
Carolina Panthers	10/1	7.7%
Philadelphia Eagles	16/1	5.0%
Green Bay Packers	14/1	5.7%
San Francisco 49ers	7/1	10.6%
New Orleans Saints	22/1	3.7%

 
The most likely matchup is Denver/Seattle - ~20% chance.
My Pats/NO prediction has a 1.2% chance by these odds.
 
edit: fix

 

[Dan to Theo to Ben]

Carde Wilde:
Cincy 31 SD 13
KC 41 Indy 30
NO 42 Philly 27
GB 27 SF 24
 
Divisionals
Pats 34 Cincy 30
KC 38 Denver 31
GB 27 Carolina 24
NO 23 Seattle 20
 
AFC CG
Pats 31 KC 27
GB 41 NO 38
 
SB
Pats 52 GB 10

 

[LondonSox]

Colts over chiefs
Bengals over chargers
Eagles over saints
Niners over packers

Eagles over panthers
Seahawks over niners
Bengals over patriots
Broncos over chiefs

Bengals over broncos
Seahawks over eagles

Seahawks over bengals

28-20

 

[LondonSox]

Carde Wilde:
Cincy 31 SD 13
KC 41 Indy 30
NO 42 Philly 27
GB 27 SF 24
 
Divisionals
Pats 34 Cincy 30
KC 38 Denver 31
GB 27 Carolina 24
NO 23 Seattle 20
 
AFC CG
Pats 31 KC 27
GB 41 NO 38
 
SB
Pats 52 GB 10

52-10????? Jesus
Plus I would take the over on points in the playoffs overall

 

[Briz]

WC:
 
(5) KC over (4) Indy
(3) Philly over (6) New Orleans
(3) Cinci over (6) San Diego
(5) San Fran over (4) Green Bay
 
Divisional:
 
(5) KC over (1) Denver
(2) NE over (3) Cinci
(1) Seattle over (5) San Fran
(2) Carolina over (3) Philly
 
XFCCG's
 
(2) NE over (5) KC
(2) Carolina over (1) Seattle
 
Superbowl
 
NE 31 Carolina 17

 

[H78]

AFC:

Cincy over SD
KC over Indy

Denver over KC
NE over Cincy

NE over Denver


NFC:

GB over SF
PHI over NO

CAR over PHI
GB over Seattle

CAR over GB

Super Bowl:

NE over CAR 27-21

 

[Dollar]

Wild Card
Chiefs (5) over Colts (4)
Chargers (6) over Bengals (3)
49ers (5) over Packers (4)
Saints (6) over Eagles (3)
 
Divisional Round
Broncos (1) over Chargers (6)
Patriots (2) over Chiefs (5)
Saints (6) over Seahawks (1)
Panthers (2) over 49ers (5)
 
Conference Championships
Patriots (2) over Broncos (1)
Saints (6) over Panthers (2)
 
Super Bowl
Patriots over Saints 38-34

 

[moly99]

With the Saints' struggles to win away games it seems like it will be really tough for them to win three in a row. It could happen, of course, but I would be very surprised.

 

[LondonSox]

You guys are a bunch of homers.

 

[Mystic Merlin]

WILD CARD
 
(5) Chiefs over (4) Colts
(3) Bengals over (6) Chargers
(5) 49ers over (4) Packers
(6) Saints over (3) Eagles
 
DIVISIONAL
 
(3) Bengals over (2) Patriots
(1) Broncos over (5) Chiefs
(1) Seahawks over (6) Saints
(5) 49ers over (2) Panthers
 
CONF. CHAMPIONSHIP
 
(1) Broncos over (3) Bengals
(5) 49ers over (1) Seahawks
 
SUPER BOWL
 
(5) 49ers over (1) Broncos, 24-20

 

[SemperFidelisSox]

The confidence some of you have in teams led by Alex Smith and Andy Dalton astonishes me.

 

[SoxFanInPdx]

Wild Card
Colts (4) over Chiefs (5)
Bengals (3) over Chargers (6)
Packers (4) over 49ers (5)
Eagles (3) over Saints (6)
 
Divisional Round
Broncos (1) over Colts (4)
Patriots (2) over Bengals (3)
Seahawks (1) over Packers (4)
Eagles (3) over Panthers (2)
 
Conference Championships
Broncos (1) over Patriots (2)
Seahawks (1) over Eagles (3)
 
Super Bowl
Seahawks over Broncos
 
 
Edit: Messed up the seedings

 

[moly99]

Bill Barnwell's article on Chiefs-Colts and Saints-Eagles:
 
http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/10230516/bill-barnwell-saturday-nfl-playoff-games
 
I did not realize Patrick Chung would play safety for Philly and Roman Harper is subbing for Kenny Vaccaro for the Saints. This could be very high scoring game even in a blizzard.

 

[Reardon's Beard]

Whatever happens it cannot be DEN vs SEA.
 
No one roots for evil.

 

[SMU_Sox]

Wild Card
Chiefs (5) over Colts (4)
Bengals (3) over Chargers (6)
49ers (5) over Packers (5)
Eagles (3) over Saints (6)
 
Divisional Round
Chiefs (5) over Broncos (1)
Patriots (2) over Bengals (3) (Winner of this will go to the SB)
Seahawks (1) over 49ers (5)
Panthers (2) over Eagles (3)
 
Conference Championships
Patriots (2) over Chiefs (5)
Seahawks (1) over Panthers (2)
 
Super Bowl
Seahawks over Patriots
 
I believe that any of the top 5 teams in the AFC can get in. The NFC is also as wide open. Any team could win and it wouldn't shock me.
 
My dark horse SB is 49ers over Chiefs.

 

[Eric Ampersand]

Wild Card
Colts (4) over Chiefs (5)
Chargers (6) over Bengals (3)
Packers (5) over 49ers (4)
Eagles (3) over Saints (6)
 
Divisional Round
Chargers (6) over Broncos (1)
Patriots (2) over Colts (4)
Eagles (3) over Seahawks (1)
Panthers (2) over Packers (4)
 
Conference Championships
Patriots (2) over Chergers (6)
Eagles (3) over Panthers (2)
 
Super Bowl
Patriots over Eagles 28-20
 
That's how you go out on a limb while maintaining your homer creds. 

 

[SoxinSeattle]

Wild Card
Chiefs (5) over Colts (4)
Bengals (3) over Chargers (6)
Packers (4) over 49ers (5)
Eagles (3) over Saints (6
 
Divisional Round
Broncos (1) over Chiefs (5)
Patriots (2) over Bengals (3)
Seahawks (1) over Packers (4)
Panthers (2) over Eagles (3)
 
Conference Championships
Patriots (2) over Broncos (1)
Seahawks (1) over Panthers (2)
 
Super Bowl
Patriots (2) over Seahawks (1)
 
Pats break the hearts of Seahawks fans and piss off the entire country in the process.

 

[j44thor]

Given the weather GB and SF will be playing in I can't see either advancing far.  That is going to be some brutal football Sun.
 
AFC
KC over IND
CIN over SD
 
DEN over KC
CIN over NE
 
CIN over DEN
 
NFC
GB over SF
PHI over NO
 
SEA over GB
PHI over CAR
 
SEA over PHI
 
SB
 
SEA over CIN

 

[Otis Foster]

AFC
 
Colts over Chiefs
Bengals over Chargers
 
Colts over Broncos
Patriots over Bengals
 
Patriots over Colts
 
NFC
 
49ers over Packers
Eagles over Saints
 
Seahawks over 49ers
Panthers over Eagles
 
Seahawks over Panthers
 
Super Bowl
 
Seahawks over Patriots

The mental image of Carroll burbling over a Super Bowl win inspires fear and loathng (mostly loathing).

 

[Infield Infidel]

Avg of a team's record and SoS, and just taking the higher team each time. Only caveat is only counting games that Rodgers and Foles played in full or most of. 
 
Wild Card
(5) Chiefs .581 over (4) Colts .575
(3) Bengals .598 over (6) Chargers .510
(5) 49ers .635 over (4) Packers .604
(3) Eagles .615 over (6) Saints 614
 
Divisional Round
(1) Broncos .622  over (5) Chiefs .581
(2) Pats .629 over (3) Bengals .598
(1) Seahawks .665 over (5) 49ers .635
(2) Panthers .647 over (3) Eagles .615
 
Conference Championships
(2) Patriots over (1) Broncos 
(1) Seahawks over (2) Panthers 
 
Super Bowl
Seahawks (1) over Patriots (2)
 
Darkhorses are Bengals and 49ers 

 

[nolasoxfan]

Wild Card
Colts (4) over Chiefs (5)
Bengals (3) over Chargers (6)
Packers (4) over 49ers (5)
Saints (6) over Eagles (3)
 
Divisional Round
Broncos (1) over Colts (4)
Patriots (2) over Bengals (3)
Packers (4) over Seahawks (1)
Saints (6) over Panthers (2)
 
Conference Championships
Patriots (2) over Broncos (1)  
Packers (4) over Saints (6)
 
Super Bowl
Patriots over Packers  

 

[Dgilpin]

Wild Card

Colts (4) over Chiefs (5)
Bengals (3) over Chargers (6)
49ers (5) over Packers (4)
Eagles (3) over Saints (6)
 
Divisional Round
Broncos (1) over Colts (4)
Bengals (3) over Pats (2)
Seahawks (1) over 49ers (5)
Eagles (3) over Panthers (2)
 
Conference Championships
Bengals (3) over Broncos (2)
Seahawks (1) over Eagles (3)
 
Super Bowl
Seahawks (1) over Bengals (3)

 

[dynomite]

Wild Card

Chiefs (5) over Colts (4)
Bengals (3) over Chargers (6)
49ers (5) over Packers (4)
Eagles (3) over Saints (6)
 
Divisional Round
Broncos (1) over Chiefs (2)
Pats (2) over Bengals (3)
Seahawks (1) over 49ers (5)
Eagles (3) over Panthers (2)
 
Conference Championships
Pats (2) over Broncos (1)
Seahawks (1) over Eagles (3)
 
Super Bowl
Pats over Seahawks, 20-17

Seems like the Pats and Broncos are better than everyone else in the AFC, but everyone in the NFC is pretty good -- feels like there will be some great, close games over the next few weeks.

I picked a Broncos/49ers Super Bowl in the preseason, so if I pick a different one here I have an even better chance to be haughty and annoying.

 

[TeddysBonefish]

WILD CARD
 
(5) Chiefs over (4) Colts
(3) Bengals over (6) Chargers
(4) Packers over (5) 49ers
(3) Eagles over (6) Saints 
 
DIVISIONAL
 
(3) Bengals over (2) Patriots
(1) Broncos over (5) Chiefs
(1) Seahawks over (6) Saints
(2) Panthers over (3) Eagles
 
CONF. CHAMPIONSHIP
 
(1) Broncos over (3) Bengals
(2) Panthers over (1) Seahawks
 
SUPER BOWL
 
(1) Broncos over (2) Panthers 45-28

 

[TheoShmeo]

WILD CARD
 
(4) Colts over (5) Chiefs
(3) Bengals over (6) Chargers
(5) 49ers over (4) Packers
(6) Saints over (3) Iggles
 
DIVISIONAL
 
(2) Patriots over (3) Bengals
(1) Broncos over (4) Colts
(1) Seahawks over (6) Saints
(2) Panthers over (5) 49ers
 
CONF. CHAMPIONSHIP
 
(2) Patriots over (1) Broncos
(1) Seahawks over (2) Panthers
 
SUPER BOWL
 
(2) Patriots over (1) Seahawks 30-20
 
Why that score?  Because that was the score of the Pats-Seahawks game on the Sunday that Game 4 of the 2004 ALCS started.  Obviously.

 

[j44thor]

Seems like the Pats and Broncos are better than everyone else in the AFC, but everyone in the NFC is pretty good -- feels like there will be some great, close games over the next few weeks.

 

 
I think you are selling CIN real short.  They are probably a pick'em on a neutral field against NE.  They put up 40pts against NYJ, CLE and IND, beat NE and have 2 OT losses among their 5 losses.  Much like NE they were in virtually every game.

 

[mpx42]

WILD CARD
 
(4) Colts over (5) Chiefs  
(3) Bengals over (6) Chargers
(5) 49ers over (4) Packers  
(3) Eagles over (6) Saints 
 
DIVISIONAL
 
(3) Bengals over (2) Patriots
(1) Broncos over (4) Colts
(1) Seahawks over (5) 49ers
(2) Panthers over (3) Eagles
 
CONF. CHAMPIONSHIP
 
(1) Broncos over (3) Bengals
(2) Panthers over (1) Seahawks
 
SUPER BOWL
 
(1) Broncos over (2) Panthers 28-17
 
Fortunately, I am usually wrong about these things.

 

[lambeau]

I pick 49ers as only road winners this weekend--but it gives me pause when they say the 49ers have never played under 35 degrees under Harbaugh--and it will be -5. That will shock.

 

[ThePrideofShiner]

I pick 49ers as only road winners this weekend--but it gives me pause when they say the 49ers have never played under 35 degrees under Harbaugh--and it will be -5. That will shock.

 
I think the 49ers are built for this kind of weather, though. Power run and solid defense.

 

[Eric Ampersand]

 
I think the 49ers are built for this kind of weather, though. Power run and solid defense.

Is anyone built for this weather? Every few years a bad division champ wins at home against a better opponent. It'll happen again and everyone will be surprised.  

 

[PseuFighter]

totally playing the homer card. this is admittedly more of what i want to happen, versus what i think actually will.
 
wild card:
indy
cincy
green bay
new orleans
 
divisional:
new england
indy
carolina
seattle
 
championship:
new england
seattle
 
super bowl:
new england
 
 
for kicks, top games of the playoffs will be, in the following order:
 
green bay over 49'ers
indy over denver
new england over seattle

 

[LondonSox]

Bill Barnwell's article on Chiefs-Colts and Saints-Eagles:
 
http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/10230516/bill-barnwell-saturday-nfl-playoff-games
 
I did not realize Patrick Chung would play safety for Philly and Roman Harper is subbing for Kenny Vaccaro for the Saints. This could be very high scoring game even in a blizzard.

Well except the Eagles rookie earl Wolff is not ruled out, and if able to play will at least play for chung some of the time, more if he's healthy. Chung is not starting if Wolff is ready. Which is unclear but he did practice.

Also as an eagles fan let's hope the play where you have 0 safeties and chung 1 on 1 with Dez Bryant is removed from the playbook and burnt. Because if I see that look on graham I'm going to need a new tv

 

[Boston Brawler]

AFC:

CIN over SD
IND over KC

DEN over IND
NE over CIN

NE over DEN


NFC:

SF over GB
PHI over NO

CAR over PHI
SEA over SF

CAR over SEA

Super Bowl:

NE over CAR

 

[mascho]

AFC:
 
Bengals over Chargers
Colts over Chiefs
 
Patriots over Bengals
Colts over Broncos
 
Patriots over Colts
 
NFC:
 
Eagles over Saints
Packers over Niners
 
Seahawks over Packers
Panthers over Eagles
 
Panthers over Seahawks
 
Super Bowl:
 
Patriots over Panthers

 

[redsoxcentury]

WILD CARD
 
(5) Chiefs over (4) Colts 
(3) Bengals over (6) Chargers
(5) 49ers over (4) Packers  
(3) Eagles over (6) Saints 
 
DIVISIONAL
 
(2) Patriots over (3) Bengals
(1) Broncos over (5) Chiefs
(1) Seahawks over (5) 49ers
(2) Panthers over (3) Eagles
 
CONF. CHAMPIONSHIP
 
(1) Broncos over (2) Patriots
(1) Seahawks over (2) Panthers
 
SUPER BOWL
 
Seahawks over Broncos, 24-17

 

[Garshaparra]

Wild Card:
 
(4) Colts over (5) Chiefs
(6) Chargers over (3) Bengals
(5) 49ers over (4) Packers
(3) Eagles over (6) Saints
 
Divisional:
 
(1) Broncos over (6) Chargers
(2) Patriots over (4) Colts
(5) 49ers over (1) Seahawks
(3) Eagles over (2) Panthers
 
Conf. Championship:
 
(1) Broncos over (2) Patriots *sigh*
(5) 49ers over (3) Eagles
 
Super Bowl:
 
Broncos over 49ers, 34-30

 

[dynomite]

 
I think you are selling CIN real short.  They are probably a pick'em on a neutral field against NE.  They put up 40pts against NYJ, CLE and IND, beat NE and have 2 OT losses among their 5 losses.  Much like NE they were in virtually every game.

I guess we'll find out.

I didn't say the Bengals are a bad team, nor that the Patriots are leaps and bounds better. But even DVOA has the Patriots as the better team (Pats are #5, they're #9), I think the Atkins injury is a killer, and Andy Dalton is a ginger (who throws too many picks).

Edit: And Marvin Lewis is kinda meh as a coach. 90-85 career W-L, 0-4 in the playoffs. I think he's a solid coach, but nothing more.

 

[Grimace-HS]

Late to the game, but have to get the picks on record....
 
Wild Card
Colts (4) over Chiefs (5)
Chargers (6) over Bengals (3)
Packers (4) over 49ers (5)
Eagles (3) over Saints (6)
 
Divisional Round
Broncos (1) over Chargers (6)
Patriots (2) over Colts (4)
Eagles (3) over Panthers (2)
Packers (4) over Seahawks (1)
 
Conference Championships
Broncos (1) over Patriots (2)
Eagles (3) over Packers (4)
 
Super Bowl
 
Broncos over Eagles (35-32)
 
Yikes....I'm not hoping for this outcome, but this tournament seems to have no real clear cut winner.  Whereas I really see only the Patriots or Broncos from the AFC having a shot, the NFC is completely up in the air; nothing would surprise me this year.  Should be fun.
 
EDIT: Added the score, in a sloppy February game in NJ.

 

[fawstahcu]

AFC:

CIN over SD
IND over KC

DEN over IND
NE over CIN

NE over DEN


NFC:

SF over GB
PHI over NO

CAR over PHI
SEA over SF

SEA over CAR

Super Bowl:
SEA over NE

 

[Eck'sSneakyCheese]

What the hell...
 
AFC
 
Colts over Chiefs (21-14) Chiefs haven't been the same team and the Colts play well at home
Bengals over Chargers (27-14) Chargers shouldn't even be in the playoffs and the Bengals are a pretty good team
 
Pats over Bengals (24-21) Pats at home in the playoffs
Colts over Broncos (35-31) Denver comes up just short while Manning struggles again in the cold
 
Pats over Colts (45-17) No contest.
 
NFC
 
Eagles over Saints (27-24) Close game but McCoy is the difference in a frigid game.
Niners over Pack (24-17) Simply, Niners are the better team.
 
Eagles over Panthers (34-20) Eagles contain Cam and pull away on a last minute pick 6.
Hawks over Niners (13-9) Brutal defensive slugfest ends with the Hawks doing what they do at home.
 
Hawks over Eagles (27-17) Again, Hawks at home are tough to beat.
 
Super Bowl
 
Pats over Hawks (31-27) Neutral field, in the elements, Pats all the way.
 
That being said if the Pats D doesn't show up... who knows?

 

[Section15Box113]

AFC
Chiefs over Colts
Bengals over Chargers

Chiefs over Broncos
Patriots over Bengals

Chiefs over Patriots (too much Charles, especially across the middle)

NFC
Packers over 49ers
Saints over Eagles

Seahawks over Saints
Panthers over Packers

Seahawks over Panthers

Seahawks 23, Chiefs 13

 

[Hendu At The Wall]

AFC:

CIN over SD
IND over KC

IND over DEN
CIN over NE

IND over CIN


NFC:

SF over GB
NO over PHI

SF over CAR
SEA over NO

SF OVER SEA

Super Bowl:

SF over IND 26-20

 

[lambeau]

WC
 
Indy
Philly
Cincy
SF
 
Div
 
Philly
NE
SF
Denver
 
Conf
 
NE
SF
 
SB
 
SF

 

[CouchsideSteve]

(5) Chiefs over (4) Colts
(3) Eagles over (6) Saints
(6) Chargers over (3) Bengals
(4) Packers over (5) 49ers
 
(1) Broncos over (6) Chargers
(3) Eagles over (2) Panthers
(5) Chiefs over (2) Patriots
(1) Seahawks over (4) Packers
 
(1) Broncos over (5) Chiefs
(1) Seahawks over (3) Eagles
 
Seahawks over Broncos

 

[Pedro's Complaint]

Cincy, Indy; GB, NO

NE, Indy; Sea, GB

NE; Sea

Sea (MVP Wilson)

 

[johnmd20]

Cincy, KC, Philly, SF
 
NE, Denver, Seattle, Philly
 
Denver, Seattle
 
Seattle(Wilson MVP)

 

[Section15Box113]

Through Saturday's games, only eight folks (out of 61) are 2-0.
 
2-0
BigSoxFan
inJacobyWeTrust
crystalline
nolasoxfan
TheoShmeo
PseuFighter
Hendu At The Wall
Pedro's Complaint
 
1-1
koufax32
Morgan's Magic Snowplow
Gunfighter 09
DrewDawg
tims4wins
loshjott
Grin&MartyBarret
ivanvamp
TomTerrific
Dalton Jones
cshea
BuckShowalter
dbn
DanoooME
NortheasternPJ
luckiestman
Dan to Theo to Ben
LondonSox
Dollar
Mystic Merlin
Section15Box113
Briz
SoxFanInPdx
Eric Ampersand
Dgilpin
mpx42
Boston Brawler
mascho
Garshaparra
Grimace-HS
fawstahcu
Eck'sSneakyCheese
lambeau
 
0-2
C4CRVT
Oil Can Dan
Oppo
dylanmarsh
amfox1
RoyHobbs
ThePrideofShiner
RedOctober3829
Mugsys Jock
Darnell's Son
H78
SMU_Sox
SoxinSeattle
j44thor
Infield Infidel
dynomite
TeddysBonefish
redsoxcentury
Couchside Steve
johnmd20
 
Edit: fixed annoying formatting

 

[Section15Box113]

That didn't take long.  With the SD/Cincy game in the books, no one is perfect anymore.